Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[Cnotes53]

Alabama falls out of Top 5 of


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Alabama dropped to No. 9 in The Associated Press college football poll, snapping the Crimson Tide???s record streak of 68 appearances in the top five.

The top four teams in the AP Top 25 presented by Regions Bank were unchanged, with LSU at No. 1, followed by Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.

The Buckeyes gained on LSU after their blowout victory at Michigan, receiving 19 first-place votes. The Tigers had 40, down 10 from last week. Clemson received three first-place votes.

Utah moved up to No. 5, followed by Oklahoma, Florida and Baylor.

The Crimson Tide lost to Auburn in a wild Iron Bowl on Saturday to give it two regular-season losses for the first time since 2010. The four-spot drop by Alabama broke a string of top-five appearances that began Nov. 8, 2015.

The week before the Tide???s run started it had been seventh, and it had been as low as 12th earlier that season. Alabama passed the old record for consecutive top-five appearances of 55 by Miami (Oct. 8, 2000-Oct. 26, 2003) last season.

Wisconsin moved up three spots to No. 10 after routing Minnesota. The Gophers dropped six spots to No. 15.

POLL POINTS

Alabama could still finish ranked in the top five with a victory in its bowl game, but it would need some losses by teams ahead of it to make that big of a jump. There will be one more regular-season Top 25 after next weekend???s conference championship games and then the final poll after all the bowls and national championship game have been played.

The last time the Crimson Tide finished a season outside the top five was 2013, when it lost the Iron Bowl on the famous Kick-Six and then dropped the Sugar Bowl to Oklahoma.

Other notable top-five streaks:

55 - Miami, Oct. 8, 2000-Oct. 26, 2003 (30 weeks at No. 1).

48 - Alabama, Preseason 2011-Dec. 8, 2013 (25 at No. 1).

48 - Oklahoma, Nov. 16, 1953-Nov. 11, 1957 (23 at No. 1).

48 - Ohio State, Preseason 1973-Sept. 20, 1976 (24 at No. 1).

Alabama did pass another milestone, extending its streak of consecutive weeks ranked to 210 (2008 preseason-present), moving past Florida for the third-longest streak in poll history. Florida was ranked for 209 straight weeks from Sept. 9, 1990-Oct. 5, 2002.

Nebraska has the longest streak at 348 weeks (Oct. 12, 1981-Sept. 22, 2002) and Florida State is second with 211 weeks (Sept. 24, 1989-Nov. 11, 2001).

IN

- No. 22 Virginia returned to the Top 25 after beating Virginia Tech on Friday to win the ACC Coastal Division for the first time.

- No. 25 Air Force is ranked for the first time since 2010. With Navy at No. 23, there are two service academies ranked at the same time for the first time since Oct. 14, 1985, when Air Force was No. 10 and Army was No. 19.

OUT

- Oklahoma State dropped out after losing to rival Oklahoma.

- Virginia Tech fell out after two weeks ranked.

CONFERENCE CALL

Big Ten - 6 (Nos. 2, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18).

SEC - 5 (Nos. 1, 4, 7, 9, 11).

American - 3 (Nos. 16, 21, 23).

Pac 12 - 3 (Nos. 5, 13, 24).

ACC - 2 (Nos. 3, 22).

Big 12 - 2 (Nos. 6, 8).

Mountain West - 2 (Nos. 19, 25).

Sun Belt - 1 (No. 20).

Independent - 1 (No. 14).

RANKED vs. RANKED

Pac-12 championship: No. 5 Utah vs. No. 13 Oregon at Santa Clara, California, on Friday.

Southeastern Conference championship: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia at Atlanta.

Big Ten championship: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Wisconsin at Indianapolis.

Atlantic Coast Conference championship: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 22 Virginia at Charlotte, North Carolina.

Big 12 championship: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 Baylor at Arlington, Texas.

American Athletic Conference: No. 21 Cincinnati at No. 16 Memphis.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 15
December 2, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

FRIDAY, DEC. 6Matchup Skinny Edge

UTAH vs. OREGON (Pac-12 title game at Levi;s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)...Utes soaring, with eight straight wins and covers dating to Sept. 28 win over Washington State. Utah also ?under? 8-3-1 this season. Teams split last six meetings vs. spread. Ducks only 5-11 last 16 vs. spread away from Eugene, 2-8 vs. spread last ten as dog.
Utah, based on team trends.

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SATURDAY, DEC. 7

Matchup Skinny Edge

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. MIAMI-OHIO (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit, MI)...Chips on a real surge for Jim McElwain, covering last 3 and 9 of last 10 on board this season. Miami-O no covers last two this year but has been 21-9 vs. line in second half of regular season the past five years. RedHawks 4-4 as dog this season, 9-6 in role since 2018.
Central Michigan, based on recent trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE (Sun Belt title game)...Ragin? Cajuns 16-4-2 vs. spread last 22 regular-season games, though failed to cover 2 of last 3 this season. As dog, ULL 7?1- last nine in role. App 8-4 vs. line this season, 21-7-1 vs. number since late 2017, though only 3-4 vs. spread last 7 at Boone. That includes win and non-cover vs. Ragin? Cajuns in Belt title game last year.
Slight to UL-Lafayette, based on team trends.

BAYLOR vs. OKLAHOMA (Big 12 title game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Bears have covered their last four this season and 8 of their last 11, also covered all four Big 12 games away from Waco. Matt Rhule 4-0 vs. line as dog in 2019 and 10-2 last 12 in role. OU got the handy win and cover in Bedlam vs. Ok State but still just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 this season and has failed to cover 3 of last 4 vs. Baylor.
Baylor, based on team and series trends.

UAB at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Conference USA title game)...Lane Kiffin covered 4 of last 5 this season and 6 of last 8, and UAB only 2-3 vs. spread last five this season. Blazers won C-USA title at MTSU in 2018 though have not been quite as profitable as visitor, covering just 4 of last 9 in role (better marks at home). UAB 0-2 as dog this season after 9-4 mark in role past two years. Teams haven?t met since 2014.
Florida Atlantic, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at MEMPHIS (American title game)...Rematch of last Friday?s 34-24 Memphis win (bit no cover) at same Liberty Bowl. Tigers are 11-5-1 vs. spread last 17 at Liberty Bowl, Bearcats only 2-4 vs. spread down stretch and just 6-12 vs. number in second halves of regular season under Fickell since 2017. Bearcats only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Nippert Stadium. Cincy also ?under? 9-3 this season.
Slight to Memphis and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

HAWAII at BOISE STATE (Mountain West title game)...Rematch of 59-37 Boise win and cover on blue carpet October 12. Broncos have won and covered last three in series. Boise was 4-2 as blue carpet chalk this season after 16-35 mark in role previous 51 entering this season. Hawaii was 3-2 vs. line on mainland in 2019 after 2-8 mark previous 11 in role. Rolovich 7-12-1 as dog since 2017.
Boise State, based on recent and series trends.

GEORGIA vs. LSU (SEC title game as Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)...LSU 10-4 vs. spread since late 2018. Teams met in 2018 with Tigers winning handily 36-16 in Baton Rouge. Kirby Smart 6-2 as dog since 2017. Bulldogs covered all five of their games away from home this season.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN vs. OHIO STATE (Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)...Buckeyes rolled in 38-7 romp at Big Horseshoe on October 26. Paul Chryst was 8-4 as dog as Wiscy coach until this season when he was 0-1 in role (at OSU). Badgers only covered 2 of last 6 this season, OSU 9-3 vs. spread in 2019.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA vs. CLEMSON (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)...Dabo again was hot down the stretch, covering 6 of last 7 this season, was 8-1-1 last 10 vs. number a year ago, 4-1 last 5 in 2017. Tigers have covered big last 2 ACC title games and 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. spread last four in these games. Tigers also 13-1-1 vs. line last 15 in ACC. Bronco Mendenhall 7-2 as dog the past two seasons. Teams haven?t met since 2013.
Clemson, based on team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Title Games
Matt Blunt

Week of December 2nd

We've reached the final month of 2019, and while that means that the playoff race in the NFL is in the stretch drive, it also means the college football season is coming to a close. So after a few weeks of focusing on the NFL, this week it's time to take a look at conference championship weekend and specifically two games that have certain historical trends favoring one particular side.

But before we get to that, last week's piece on the two different runs that were in play for numerous NFL games last week ended up with a positive 5-4 ATS result (eliminating the SF play because both they and Baltimore were coming off outings of 30+ points). Some of the lines listed on the list of plays last week moved with us, and some of them moved against us, but thanks to Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay ? who all won SU by the way ? had you played all those games you came out ahead.

However, it's on to the collegiate game now, and conference championship weekend is always one of my favorite ones of the year. You've got a NFL-sized betting board which means you can spend more time on each individual game, there are no potential motivational issues to concern yourself with, and you've got winning teams in all the games so the quality of football you can expect to see should be at a more predictable level.

That being said, not one favorite this weekend is laying less than -6.5 points right now, and that is quite telling. At least on paper, the oddsmakers believe these games won't be all that tight, but underdogs do win conference titles every year, so taking the points in some of these games may be rather appealing. And based on recent results in two specific conference championship games, we already have two underdogs to look at.

Who's Hot

Playing ON the team in the Big 10 Championship game with fewer ATS wins on the season is 3-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 3-0-1 ATS the last four years

This year's Big 10 game has the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes currently laying -16.5 against Wisconsin, in a rematch of a 38-7 Ohio State win back at the end of October. That game was a dominant effort from Ohio State from start to finish, and given how dominant the Buckeyes have been all year, there is plenty to like about their chances to win this game and earn their spot in the CFB Playoff.

Ohio State comes into this game with a 9-3 ATS record on the year, but recent history suggests that that's not a great thing for them to cover this big number. Yes, it's only a 3-4 game sample size here, but with Wisconsin sporting a 7-5 ATS record this season, they are in the role that's proved to be a money earner the past three seasons.

In last year's Big 10 title game, Ohio State was just 5-7 ATS when they were laying an identical -16.5 spread against a Northwestern team that was 6-4-2 ATS at the time. It was a mismatch on paper, and proved to be on the field too, as Ohio State ended up with the 45-24 win to cover the number.

It was a similar story in the 2017 and 2016 Big 10 Championship games as well, as a 2017 Ohio State team at 5-7 ATS went on to win SU and ATS against an 8-4 ATS Wisconsin team, while the 2016 Penn State Nittany Lions ? who were 8-3-1 ATS ? got the SU and ATS win over a 9-2-1 ATS Wisconsin team. And then back in 2015, Michigan State (5-7 ATS) ended up pushing as -3 favorites against a then 7-5 Iowa squad.

So history is on Wisconsin's side to at least keep this game closer then this number may suggest, and if you've read any of my Upset Alert pieces this year, you'll know that I've gone against Ohio State against the number a handful of times this year. The results have not been good overall, so rushing to the window to take these points with Wisconsin is not something I'm doing, as I'm simply putting out this information to let you all make your own decisions.

Overall last year, teams with fewer ATS wins on the year went 6-1 ATS in conference championship games, but that was after they were 1-6 ATS back in 2017 (2017 Ohio State being only winner). I am a big believer in regression to the mean in nearly everything, so I do think we see some of those squads that have performed admirably ATS this season continue to do so, I'm just not sure it happens in the Big 10. Which leads me to...

Who's Not

Playing ON the team with the fewer ATS wins in the Mountain West Championship game is 0-4 ATS the past four years

Given that the Mountain West title has been decided by just three points in each of the past four years, it's not too surprising that opening numbers of +14.5/15 on Hawaii were quickly bought up. The current line sits at Boise State -13.5, and with the Broncos at home on the Smurf Turf for the third straight season in this game, they do have some intrinsic advantages already. Yet, at 6-5-1 ATS this year, it is Boise State who comes into this game with fewer covers then their opponent Hawaii, and while that situation has been great for Big 10 teams, it's the exact opposite in the Mountain West.

Each of the past four years in this conference we've seen the team that has cashed more tickets on the season, cash once again in the title game. It just so happens that they've all been the underdog for this game, and when you get every game decided by just three points, chances are the dog will bring home the ATS victory. The past two years it's been Fresno State who went 1-1 SU in those three point efforts as dogs, and prior to that it was Wyoming and Air Force with three point defeats catching points as well. All four of those years saw the dog come into the game with more ATS wins, as Hawaii does this year at 7-6 ATS.

And given the big picture surrounding this game, a play on Hawaii does seem to make a lot of sense.

For one, Boise's not likely to get that Bowl spot in the New Year's Six as the highest ranked Group of 5 team because chances are it will go to the winner of the AAC Title game between Cincinnati and Memphis. Both teams are ranked right around Boise State right now, and the winner of that game will likely earn that berth as the highest ranked squad. I did say at the top that motivational concerns aren't really prevalent this week, but if there was one, that would be it.

Furthermore, Hawaii's got to be excited to be in their first Mountain West title game, and the program's first crack at a conference crown since sharing the WAC title back in 2010. Their last outright conference title game 12 years ago as 12-1 SU WAC champions, and every school loves to add to their trophy case.

It's also another crack at this Boise State team on the blue turf after suffering a 59-37 loss to the Broncos back in mid-October. That final score was more flattering then how the game went, as it was 52-21 after three quarters, as four turnovers by Hawaii (three fumbles lost and an INT) dug way too big of a hole for them to climb out of. The Rainbow Warriors were right there with Boise State in terms of yards per rush (5.9 for Hawaii vs 5.2 for Boise State) and pass yards per play (6.5 for Hawaii vs 8.5 for Boise State), and had they just been able to protect the ball early on, things could have been much different.

The Warriors have only improved since then ? especially on defense ? as they ended up going 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) since that Boise State loss, and finished the year with committing a turnover against Army, the first time they hadn't coughed the ball up since playing Nevada the week before the first meeting with Boise State.

Having the Rainbow Warriors playing out in the cold of Boise will definitely be a talking point for those looking to lay it with the Broncos, but Boise State also has some questions at QB if QB Hank Bachmeier decides to give it a go with his wounded shoulder. He's sat out the last three games for Boise State, and while they've generally been fine without him, his reinsertion to the field could bring more disruption to that offense then expected.

Hawaii can put the ball in the end zone with the best of them in the Mountain West, which means a back door cover is probably always in the equation here, and with the early move in the Rainbow Warriors favor, and the recent history of both underdogs and teams with the more ATS wins in the Mountain West title game, it's a move I believe you've got to agree with.

 

[Cnotes53]

103OREGON -104 UTAH
OREGON is 44-14 ATS (28.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.

105MIAMI OHIO -106 C MICHIGAN
MIAMI OHIO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

107LA LAFAYETTE -108 APPALACHIAN ST
LA LAFAYETTE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

109BAYLOR -110 OKLAHOMA
BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

111UAB -112 FLA ATLANTIC
UAB is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 2 straight unders over the last 2 seasons.

115HAWAII -116 BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.9 YPP) in the last 3 seasons.

117GEORGIA -118 LSU
GEORGIA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

119WISCONSIN -120 OHIO ST
OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in the current season.

121VIRGINIA -122 CLEMSON
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after going under the total over the last 2 seasons.


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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, December 6

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OREGON (10 - 2) vs. UTAH (11 - 1) - 12/6/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
UTAH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
UTAH is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
UTAH is 47-24 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OREGON is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 7

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MIAMI OHIO (7 - 5) vs. C MICHIGAN (8 - 4) - 12/7/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
MIAMI OHIO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAFAYETTE (10 - 2) at APPALACHIAN ST (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-2 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 4-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BAYLOR (11 - 1) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 2-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 3-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UAB (9 - 3) at FLA ATLANTIC (9 - 3) - 12/7/2019, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (10 - 2) at MEMPHIS (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAWAII (9 - 4) at BOISE ST (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 153-112 ATS (+29.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 153-112 ATS (+29.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-66 ATS (+23.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 87-55 ATS (+26.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA (11 - 1) vs. LSU (12 - 0) - 12/7/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WISCONSIN (10 - 2) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 0) - 12/7/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 199-150 ATS (+34.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-150 ATS (+34.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 168-131 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OHIO ST is 131-98 ATS (+23.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 180-135 ATS (+31.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OHIO ST is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
OHIO ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
OHIO ST is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VIRGINIA (9 - 3) vs. CLEMSON (12 - 0) - 12/7/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NCAAF

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Friday, December 6

Oregon Ducks
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oregon's last 15 games
Oregon is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oregon's last 7 games when playing Utah
Utah Utes
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Oregon


Saturday, December 7

Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baylor
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baylor
Baylor Bears
Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baylor is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Baylor is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma
Baylor is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma

Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Central Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Central Michigan's last 7 games
Central Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami-OH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 7 games when playing Miami-OH
Miami-OH RedHawks
Miami-OH is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami-OH is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami-OH's last 5 games
Miami-OH is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Central Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-OH's last 7 games when playing Central Michigan

Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Appalachian State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Appalachian State's last 8 games
Appalachian State is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Appalachian State's last 7 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 7 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 9 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Appalachian State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 7 games when playing Appalachian State

Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida Atlantic's last 9 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama-Birmingham
Florida Atlantic is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Alabama-Birmingham
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games when playing Alabama-Birmingham
UAB Blazers
Alabama-Birmingham is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
Alabama-Birmingham is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games on the road
Alabama-Birmingham is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida Atlantic
Alabama-Birmingham is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida Atlantic
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games when playing Florida Atlantic

Memphis Tigers
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 9 games
Memphis is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games at home
Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Memphis
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis

LSU Tigers
Louisiana State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Louisiana State's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisiana State's last 8 games when playing Georgia
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia's last 7 games
Georgia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia's last 8 games when playing Louisiana State

Boise State Broncos
Boise State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boise State's last 10 games at home
Boise State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 6 games when playing Hawaii
Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Hawaii
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 6 games when playing at home against Hawaii
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Hawaii is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hawaii's last 8 games
Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Hawaii is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Hawaii is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Hawaii's last 9 games on the road
Hawaii is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
Hawaii is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 6 games when playing Boise State
Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boise State
Hawaii is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boise State

Clemson Tigers
Clemson is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia's last 6 games
Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Clemson

Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Wisconsin is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games
Wisconsin is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Ohio State
Wisconsin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 6 games when playing Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games
Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Wisconsin
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wisconsin
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games when playing Wisconsin


****************************


College football Week 15 opening odds and early action: Bettors pound Ohio State for clash vs Wisconsin
Patrick Everson

J.K. Dobbins and Ohio State face Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game Saturday in Indianapolis. PointsBet USA opened the Buckeyes -12.5, and the line shot to -16.5 before dialing back to -15.5.

College football Week 15 features conference championship games, led by the Power 5 matchups that will determine the College Football Playoff participants. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

Big Ten

No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-12.5)

Ohio State has been a battering ram practically all season, winning by 24 points or more in all but one game, Week 13 against Penn State. In the Week 14 regular-season finale, the Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) boatraced archrival Michigan 56-27 as 9-point road favorites.

Wisconsin hit a two-week speed bump in October, stunningly losing at Illinois, followed by a 38-7 road beatdown catching 14.5 points at Ohio State. But the Badgers (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) won their last four, claiming the Big Ten West with Saturday?s 38-17 victory as 3-point faves at Minnesota.

PointsBet USA took a stand by posting lines on the Power 5 title games Saturday night, and this number subsequently saw huge movement, rocketing to Buckeyes -16.5.

?Ohio State went off as two-touchdown favorites when these teams met in Columbus five weeks ago, so we ticked that down slightly for the neutral-field rematch,? Chaprales said. ?We got hit hard and fast with Buckeyes money, though, so we had to react aggressively.?

The move to 16.5 seemed to get the attention of Badgers backers, as the number dialed down to 15.5 Monday for a Saturday meeting at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

Southeastern Conference

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Louisiana State Tigers (-5.5)

Louisiana State also ran the table this season, including an impressive Week 11 road victory over Alabama. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS) capped the regular season with a 50-7 trashing of Texas A&M laying 18 points in Week 14.

Georgia had just one slip-up this season, and oddly enough, it didn?t come against the top teams on its schedule ? Notre Dame, Florida or Auburn ? but rather at home to South Carolina in Week 7. The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) won their next six, finishing with a 52-7 nonconference rout of Georgia Tech giving 28.5 points.

The Tigers went from -5.5 to -7 for this contest at Atlanta?s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

?This game means a lot more to Georgia ? LSU?s resume is already pretty much unassailable ? but it?s nonetheless been all Tigers action so far, resulting in a series of moves,? Chaprales said. ?It will be interesting to see if 7 marks a resistance point.?

Apparently, 7 wasn?t that point, as the number went to Tigers -7.5 on Monday.

Pac-12

No. 14 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 Utah Utes (-6.5)

Utah could be the biggest beneficiary of No. 5 Alabama?s loss at Auburn, as that could help Kyle Whittingham?s squad earn a CFP berth ? if it wins this Friday night battle. The Utes (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) are on a torrid 8-0 SU and ATS streak, including Saturday?s 45-15 victory over Colorado laying 27.5 points at home.

Oregon can?t get into the CFP, but a New Year?s Six bowl bid would surely await if it wins this tilt at Levi?s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The Ducks (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) were in the CFP hunt until Week 13, when they went to Arizona State as 13-point road favorites and lost outright 31-28. Oregon then notched a lackluster 24-10 home win over Oregon State giving 20.5 points.

?Oregon?s loss definitely hurt the Pac 12?s hopes for a playoff bid, and it?s the reason this line is pushing 7 as opposed to closer to a field goal,? Chaprales said. ?Utah has also been a covering machine, and early action has backed the Utes.?

Indeed, after an initial drop to -5.5 late Saturday, Utah was bet back up to the opener of -6.5.

Big 12

No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5)

Much like Georgia, Oklahoma?s lone loss this year was a stunning one, at Kansas State as 23.5-point chalk, and Lincoln Riley?s troops followed by winning their next three by a combined total of 8 points. However, the Sooners (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) finished strong with a 34-16 victory over Oklahoma State as 14-point favorites Saturday.

Baylor, meanwhile, gets the opportunity to avenge its only loss this season and perhaps land a CFP bid. In Week 12, the Bears (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) had Oklahoma on the ropes with a 28-3 second-quarter lead, but stalled from there in a 34-31 home loss catching 11 points. Baylor capped the regular season with a 61-6 drubbing of Kansas as 14-point home faves.

?The Sooners haven?t exactly been world beaters lately,? Chaprales said. ?But their huge comeback a few weeks ago is certainly fresh in bettors? minds, which has fueled interest on the Oklahoma side.?

After a downward move to Oklahoma -6.5 late Saturday, PointsBet moved to Sooners -9 by Monday for a Saturday tilt at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-21.5)

Clemson is a regular CFP participant, winning the championship last season and in the 2016-17 campaign while qualifying each of the past four years. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) had only one win closer than 14 points all season, and it was razor-close, a 21-20 victory at North Carolina as hefty 27.5-point favorites. Dabo Swinney?s squad closed the regular season with a 38-3 rout laying 27.5 points at South Carolina.

Virginia won four in a row and five of its last six to land a spot in this Saturday game in Charlotte, N.C. The Cavaliers completed the run with a 39-30 victory over Virginia Tech as 1.5-point home underdogs Saturday.

This line also made a huge move off the opening number, running all the way to Clemson -28.5.

?A pitfall of being first to post a huge game is that the market will quickly let you know if you?ve hung a bad number,? Chaprales said. ?Case in point here, hence the significant adjustment.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Pac-12 Championship
December 3, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Oregon vs. Utah
Venue/Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Time/TV: Friday, Dec. 6 (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Utah -6.5, Total 46.5

Having wrote Friday night college football betting previews all season, I know that the Pac-12 as a conference likes to showcase their wares on Friday's, and they get to be the lone show in town this week. The conference gets to crown their champion first and make a statement (one way or another) into how the final college football rankings will take shape. A win for Utah and they likely get into the playoff if everything else were to hold as is right now, while an Oregon win opens up the door for the Big 12 specifically, but also some debate.

The pressure is quite thick if you are a Utah fan/backer, and we all know that pressure can burst pipes or create diamonds. Which side of that equation the Utes end up falling on remains to be seen, so let's get right to breaking this game down.

The case for backing Utah in this game centers on them ending up on the ?diamonds? end of that pressure equation, as everyone knows this is a must-win for the Utes. Must win doesn't equate to will win though, and even if it did, you've got the whole pesky point spread question of will Utah win by a TD or not to deal with as well. Early action saw Utah get a bump from the opening number, but I have a hunch that was just bettors who were looking to get out ahead of the market. It's easy to assume that Utah will get the majority of support as the week goes on because of the ?must win? angle, and the motivational aspect of the Utes needing plenty of ?style points? to help their CFB Playoff case.

With that being the likely arc of the betting market for this game, getting the best of the number on Utah meant that early action was necessary, but should this line reach -7 I would expect to see some buyback come Oregon's way. And yet, it's the notion of Utah needing ?style points? that is highly intriguing to me in the sense that it's not the side I'm all that considered with, it's the total.

The total has seen nothing but 'under' action since opening at 51, and with the weather forecast projecting a lot of rain in San Francisco for this game, it's likely an early weather related move. But just like ?must win? doesn't equal ?will win,? rainy weather doesn't equal 'under' especially when you've got a team that's very used to wet weather like Oregon involved. Furthermore, let's revisit this notion of Utah needing ?style points? or a dominant win to help further their case to the CFB Playoff selection committee.

If Utah is going to get a dominant win, that means they are going to have plenty of points up on the scoreboard. Utah scored 30 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this year and never fewer then 21. With an average point total of 35.6 per game, we should be able to assume that Utah will put up what, at least 24 points in a blowout win, but most likely more right.

Defensively, the Utes have been great all year in allowing just 11.3 points per game, as only two foes have scored 20 or more against them this season ? USC and Washington. Both of those games came on the road for Utah ? this isn't a road game, but it's not a home game either ? and those two foes were two of the four teams Utah faced in Pac-12 play this year that ended up with a winning record. The other two were Arizona State and California, and Utah did hold them to a combined 3 points, but they were also home games for the Utes.

In other words, the only conference games Utah played this year against an above average (ie winning) team outside of Salt Lake City saw their foes put up at least 28 points against them. And I'm pretty sure that 33-28 win for Utah in Washington had some rainy weather involved as well. Washington and USC scored at least 7 points in seven of those eight quarters played against Utah, so it's not like it was one bad quarter/half filled with mistakes for the Utes either. Those opponents were consistently moving the ball against this stout Utah defense, and as long as Oregon shows up and is interested in playing spoiler, I believe they are capable of doing the same. Speaking of which, everyone knows it's a ?must win? spot for Utah, but how about we look at this game from an Oregon perspective.

Oregon's playoff hopes may have died a few weeks back against Arizona State, but winning the conference is still the #1 goal for every program in the country when they begin the season in August. The Ducks have an opportunity to still attain that goal and with the strength of their team being on offense, they'll rely on that side of the ball to try and get the job done. The Ducks know they are far less likely to win a 14-10 style of game here, and the more they are able to move the ball and put up points on Utah, the more the pressure ramps up on the Utes as they start to shift towards the 'pipe bursting' side of the pressure equation. How is that not good for the 'over'?

And let's say Oregon does end up no-showing in this game, knowing that they've got no playoff hopes and QB Justin Herbert is more concerned about protecting his health for his future pro career. Well, they will no show defensively as well in that scenario, and we could see Utah put up 40+ points themselves. The Utes average 35/game as it is, and with rainy weather potentially lending itself to a few turnovers, if they end up coming on the right side of the field, quick points could be put up in a hurry.

Even in that scenario ? a Utah blowout win where they score 40+ ? this game should sail 'over' the total. I mean, you'd have to go all the way back to November 2007 to find a game where this Oregon program got shut out, and they've only been held to less than 7 points once this entire decade. So even in a no-show effort from the Ducks, they should still find the end zone at least once.

I'm not so sure a no-show effort by the Ducks offense will be in the cards though, as they can still reach their main goal with a win in this game (winning a conference title) and if Herbert is more concerned about his individual future, putting a solid game tape out there against a quality defense like Utah's can only help his cause.

And when you consider that Utah being a defense-first program is not exactly a new phenomenon this year, and these two programs have met every season since 2013 with at least 57 total points scored in all of those contests (5-1 O/U), defensive slugfests just aren't the norm for these two programs. You can easily see why the 'under' got all the early action with the weather forecast and both defenses having solid season long numbers, but the bulk of those numbers have come against sub-par Pac-12 teams ? only half the conference finished with a winning record.

These are two quality teams squaring off, and in the majority of scenarios in terms of how this game likely plays out, it's not hard to see points being scored. Sure, I've been wrong on breakdowns like this before (and I will be again), but this total is just far too low now and the best way to bet this game is going on the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over 46.5

YTD Record: 6-8 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Championship Preview
December 3, 2019
By ASA

Big Ten Championship Preview

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium Location: Indianapolis, Indiana TV/Time: FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET
Betting Odds: Ohio State -16, Total 56.5

Wisconsin clinched the Big Ten West last Saturday with a 38-17 win over Minnesota in Minneapolis. The Badgers picked up an easy cover (Wisconsin was -2.5) and the game went over the total (45). The Badgers led 10-7 at half and they were struggling to run the ball (only 66 yards rushing) with Minnesota selling out to stop Jonathan Taylor. Because of that, Wisconsin coaches made an offensive adjustment and took some shots downfield with QB Jack Coan completing 4 passes in the 2nd half for 161 yards (40+ yards per completion)! They scored TD?s on each of their 4 second half possessions to pull away for an easy win.

In un-Wisconsin like fashion, they threw for 280 yards in the Minneapolis snowstorm while rushing for just 173 yards. QB Jack Coan continued his efficient play as he now ranks 3rd in the nation completing 72% of his passes. The defense was struggling a bit coming into this game having allowed nearly 900 yards on more than 7.0 YPP their previous 2 games vs Nebraska & Purdue. They righted the ship last Saturday holding a potent Minnesota offense to 372 total yards including just 76 yards on the ground. After the Gophs first drive of the game (2-plays for 51-yards and a TD) the UW defense limited them to only 4.9 YPP the rest of the way.

This will be Wisconsin?s 6th appearance in the nine-year history of the Big Ten Championship.

Ohio State continues their onslaught on the sportsbooks easily covering last week @ Michigan. Their 56-27 win as a 9-point favorite marked the Buckeyes 9th cover in 12 games this season. When they cover, the cover BIG. All but one of their 9 ATS wins have come by at least 17 points with an average cover margin of 20.6 PPG in those 9 games. Last Saturday the offense continued to roll with almost 600 yards of total offense on a very good Michigan defense. OSU outgained the Wolverines by 182 yards which was actually their lowest YPG margin of the season which speaks to their dominance this season.

On defense about the only thing we can knock them for was allowing big plays in the passing game. Michigan QB Shea Patterson threw for 305 yards and 13 of his 18 completions went for 10 yards or more. Nearly half of those completions (6) went for more than 20 yards. The Buckeyes are now allowing almost 14 yards per pass completion which ranks them 25th nationally which obviously is still very solid but if we do see a chink in their defensive armor, that might be it. They rank in the top 10 in most other key defensive categories.

OSU did get a bit of a scare in the 2nd half when QB Justin Fields was rolled up on and went down with what looked like a leg injury. He returned a series later and showed no signs of slowing down. OSU now moves onto play in their 5th Big Ten Championship game in the last 9 seasons.

Previous Meeting
These two met in Columbus on October 26th with OSU entering the game as a 14.5 point favorite with a total of 48. The Buckeyes won the game 38-10 easily covering the spread with the total landing directly on the number. The game was close at half with the Buckeyes leading 10-0. Early in the 3rd quarter Wisconsin scored on a short field following a blocked punt to cut the lead to 10-7. OSU dominated from that point on outscoring the Badgers 28-0 the rest of the way.

Wisconsin was only able to muster 191 total yards and Jonathan Taylor was held to only 52 yards on 20 carries. Ohio State put up 431 total yards. Justin Fields completed only 12 passes in the game but the Buckeyes didn?t need him to air it out as they ran the ball 50 times for 264 yards.

Inside the Numbers
These two have met twice in the Big Ten Championship game with OSU winning and covering both. In 2014 Wisconsin entered as a 4-point favorite and the Badgers were blown out 59-0 by the Buckeyes. In 2017 they had a conference championship rematch with OSU winning 27-21 as a 3.5 point favorite.

Over the first six years of the Big Ten Championship game, the underdog was 5-0-1 ATS. The last two years the favorite is 2-0 ATS. The Buckeyes are favored by 16.5 here which is the same number they were laying in this game last year vs Northwestern. OSU went on to win that game 45-24.

All of the other Big Ten championship games have had single digit spreads. As far as this series goes, Ohio State has dominated as of late going 10-1 SU (4-7 ATS) the last 11 meetings with Wisconsin. From mid-October of 1990 through mid-November of 1997 the Badgers were 12-1 ATS as an underdog of 14 points or more.

Since then they have been a 2 TD or higher dog just 5 times and they are 0-4-1 ATS in those games. The Buckeyes have been a favorite of more than 14 points in every game but one this year (@ Michigan they were -9). OSU is 8-3 ATS in those games. Ohio State has won every game but one by at least 24 points. The only outlier was their 11-point win over Penn State.

Big Ten Betting Results

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY (2011-2018)

Year Location Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2018 Indianapolis, IN Ohio State-Northwestern Ohio State -16.5 (63) Ohio State 45-24 Favorite-Over

2017 Indianapolis, IN Ohio State-Wisconsin Ohio State -3.5 (51) Ohio State 27-21 Favorite-Under

2016 Indianapolis, IN Penn State-Wisconsin Wisconsin -3 (45) Penn State 38-31 Underdog-Over

2015 Indianapolis, IN Iowa-Michigan State Michigan State -3 (50) Michigan State 16-13 Push-Under

2014 Indianapolis, IN Wisconsin-Ohio State Wisconsin -4 (54) Ohio State 59-0 Underdog-Over

2013 Indianapolis, IN Michigan State-Ohio State Ohio State -5.5 (53.5) Michigan State 34-24 Underdog-Over
2012 Indianapolis, IN Wisconsin-Nebraska Nebraska -2.5 (48) Wisconsin 70-31 Underdog-Over

2011 Indianapolis, IN Wisconsin-Michigan State Wisconsin -9.5 (56) Wisconsin 42-39 Underdog-Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bets - Sides
December 3, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Nine conference titles will be decided on Saturday, and with it will come nine point spread results that hopefully you are on the right side of more often then not. Conference championship games have basically been a coin flip the past three years in terms of ATS wins for favorites or underdogs, as it was split right down the middle last year (5-5 ATS).

Prior to that, 2017 saw favorites go 5-3-1 ATS, while 2016 title games saw favorites finish 3-5 ATS. That's as even as it gets (13-13-1 ATS) in terms of backing favorites or underdogs, and with every favorite this year laying at least six points, I would not be surprised to see this year's results be nearly even again.

With that in mind, I've got one favorite and one underdog to back on Saturday, so let's get to it.

Conference Championship Favorite to Back:
Central Michigan (-7)

The Chippewas caught the break of the year last week when Western Michigan failed to win at Northern Illinois earlier in the week. Bad weather and sloppy execution did the Broncos in, as maybe the ?Row the Boat? culture that former HC P.J Fleck started at Western Michigan has some issues in late November when all the bodies of water have frozen over. Either way, Central Michigan had everything in front of them after that loss and took full advantage of it on Black Friday with a dominant 49-7 win over Toledo to win the MAC West and punch their ticket to this title game.

The Chippewas now face a Miami (OH) team that went through the motions last week knowing they were already assured this spot, ultimately ending a five-game winning streak in the process. But the MAC East was a much softer division by far this year, and getting a division crown on the back of beating the likes of Akron and Bowling Green ? who went a combined 3-21 SU and 4-20 ATS this year ? isn't anything special. The Redhawks were also underdogs in every single conference game outside of those Bowling Green and Akron contests which is quite telling as well.

And yet, they rode some close wins ? they were 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 points or less ? to a division crown, as they were just +35 in point differential in MAC play as it was. Eventually running good like that in tight games wears out, and against a team the quality of Central Michigan, I expect that to be the case here.

The Chippewas finished MAC play with a +121 point differential in their eight conference games, as all but one of their six wins came by at least 14 points. That type of dominant football is what leads a team like Central Michigan to a 9-3 ATS record overall this year, and they were a perfect 6-0 ATS in MAC play if they won the game outright. What that says is that if you believe the Chippewas will win the game, the point spread won't matter, and after getting new life on their 2019 season because of that Western Michigan loss, the Chippewas definitely got new life.

Central Michigan made the most of that situation in the regular season finale, and that should carry over to this week's conference title game. They are by far the better team on both sides of the ball and as long as the Chippewas protect the football ? they had 5 and 3 turnovers respectively in their two MAC losses ? this game should be one they control from start to finish.

12 years ago these two teams met in the MAC title game and as three-point favorites it was Central Michigan who came away with a 35-10 win. This year's score could end up being quite similar, as the Chippewas end their 10 year drought of being the MAC champion.

Conference Championship Underdog to Back:
Georgia Bulldogs (+7.5)
Georgia ML

So it's a done deal right? Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are going to be in the college football playoff regardless of what happens on Saturday, and then it's all up to who had more style points between Utah and Oklahoma/Baylor for that 4th spot right? I mean, that's what all the conversation seems to be about early this week. Poor old Georgia, not even in the same zip code as Dabo Swinney's ?ROY? bus right now as the consensus #4 team that controls their own destiny.

And while I do tend to agree with the first part of that idea that Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson will be CFB Playoff bound regardless, if that is the case, technically, LSU can afford a loss here right? There is no way that a one-loss LSU team who has been in the Top 2 for the entirety of the rankings would get completely bumped out of the Top 4 after a conference championship loss to the #4 team, and the Tigers have to be feeling pretty comfortable with that position as it currently stands. That's not to say LSU will no-show or anything like that, as motivation to remain undefeated and win the SEC for the first time since they beat Georgia in 2011 is still there, but they aren't fighting for everything in the same sense that the Bulldogs are.

Georgia used their regular season finale vs Georgia Tech to get the offense right again, as the concerns of not scoring TD's and settling for FG's as they had for games prior were put to bed by the second drive. After opening up with a FG vs the Yellow Jackets, Georgia went on to put up seven TD's the rest of the way to at least gain some much needed confidence on that side of the ball heading into this LSU showdown. LSU's offense has lit up everyone this year, and for as much as Georgia likes to rely on their defense to get key stops, and Kirby Smart is a defensive guy, the Bulldogs knew they have to be able to put up TD's when the opportunities are there to beat a team like LSU.

And speaking of Kirby Smart, there is something to be said for a guy who's been on the sidelines in seven of the last 11 SEC title games in some capacity. This is the third straight year he's guided Georgia to this game as the head man, but he was the DC in Alabama for all those years that the Crimson Tide found there way to this spot. That type of experience can't be overlooked in a big game like this, and even the core of his team on the field can join him there with this being their third straight appearance. Also, I'm sure Kirby Smart has contacted old pal Nick Saban to pick his brain on ideas on how to get past LSU this week too.

So all this talk about whether it will be Utah, Oklahoma or even Baylor to make it into the 4th spot in the playoff is something I'll let others waste their breath about all week.

This Bulldogs team remembers the sting of being in this identical spot a year ago ? sitting at #4 before the SEC Championship ? and blowing a 21-14 halftime, and 28-21 lead going into the 4th against Alabama. That loss had the Big 12 champ Oklahoma take their spot, and I'd venture a guess that every Georgia player that was in pads last year, and every coach that was on the sideline last year will be damned if they let it happen again.

If the Bulldogs get beat by the better team then so be it, but they'll aim to be at their best from the outset here, and I do believe they win this game outright. Remember, this is the first time on this stage for basically everyone wearing LSU colors, and if they've already got that sense of entitlement of knowing/assuming they are in the playoff regardless, Georgia will show no mercy if they are given that chance.

Georgia wins this game 28-24.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s game

Pac-12, Santa Clara, CA
Oregon won seven of last ten games with Utah, losing 32-25 in SLC LY, when Utah blew 19-7 halftime lead, then scored GW TD with 6:48 left. Utes (+5) lost Pac-12 title game 10-3 to Washington LY; they won their last eight games since a 30-23 loss at USC in September. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Oregon won 10 of its last 11 games, losing last road game 31-28 at ASU; Ducks are in Pac-12 title game for first time since their 51-13 (-14) win over Arizona five years ago. Under Cristobal, Oregon is 1-4 ATS as an underdog, 0-1 TY. Four of their last six games went over.

Saturday?s games

MAC, Detroit
Central Michigan is 8-0 when they score 38+ points; they scored 20 or less in their four losses. CMU won its last two games with Miami, OH, 37-17/31-14; Chippewas are in MAC title game for first time in 10 years- they won six of last seven games after a 2-3 start, covering all four games they?ve been favored in TY. Six of their last seven games went over. Miami is in MAC title game for first time since 2010; they won five of last six games after a 2-4 start- they gave up 35+ points in all five of their losses. Red Hawks are 4-5 ATS as an underdog TY. Four of their last five games went under.

Sun Belt, Boone, NC
Appalachian State beat Louisiana 30-19 in this game LY; ASU also won 17-7 in Lafayette Oct 9, holding ULL to 254 TY- they?re 7-0 against the Ragin? Cajuns (4-3 ATS). App State won its last four games since a 24-21 home loss to Ga Southern on Halloween- they?re 13-18-1 ATS in last 32 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY. Six of their last eight games went under. Louisiana won its last six games since the loss to App State, which was only time in their last 11 games where they ran ball for less than 225 yards; under Napier, ULL is 5-1-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-0 TY. Six of their last seven games went under the total.

Big 12, Arlington, TX
Oklahoma (-10.5) rallied from a 31-10 halftime deficit to beat Baylor 34-31 in Waco three weeks ago, their 20th win in last 23 series games. Oklahoma outgained Bears 525-307 that nite. Sooners are in Big X title game for 6th time in last seven years- they?re 8-0 in this game; they won their last four games since a loss at K-State- only one of those wins was by more than four points. Sooners? last three games went under. Baylor is 11-1, with loss to Sooners the only blemish; half of their eight Big X wins were by 6 or fewer points. Bears covered six of their last eight games as an underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. This is Baylor?s first appearance in the Big X title game.

Conference USA, Boca Raton
Florida Atlantic won four of its six games with UAB; last meeting was five years ago. UAB won its last three games overall, allowing 15 ppg; they won their last three games, allowing 15 ppg. Under Clark, UAB is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog, 0-2 TY. Four of their last five games stayed under. FAU won nine of last ten games after opening year with losses to Ohio/UCF; Owls scored 37.4 ppg in winning last five games. Under Kiffin, FAU is 10-6-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-1 TY. These teams won last two C-USA titles; UAB won it LY, FAU the year before.

 

[Cnotes53]

FIELDS OF PAIN

Ohio State's chances of winning this weekend's Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin might be a little shakier than originally thought. Standout Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields says his left knee isn't 100 percent after he aggravated an MCL injury in last week's throttling of the rival Michigan Wolverines. Fields, who originally suffered the injury against Penn State last month, told reporters he'll face the Badgers with a brace if need be. Fields had his worst showing of the season against Wisconsin back in October ? going just 12-for-22 for 167 yards ? but it didn't matter, as Ohio State rolled to a 38-7 victory.

Fields' limited mobility likely won't keep Ohio State from pulling out the conference championship, but it does hamper the Buckeyes' offensive upside. In a game featuring a total in the mid-50s despite both teams' standout defenses, we favor the Under.


BUCKLING DOWN EARLY

Two of the stingiest first-quarter defenses in the nation will take the field this Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas as the Oklahoma Sooners square off against the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor comes in ranked third in the nation in first-half scoring defense vs. FBS teams, allowing just 1.6 points per game; Oklahoma isn't far behind in 13th (3.8 ppg against). And while Baylor enjoyed a 14-3 first-quarter lead in their previous meeting, that was due largely to a rare Sooners 3-and-out on their second possession of the game; they wouldn't have another for the rest of the contest.

Both teams excel at keeping opponents off the scoreboard in the early going, and should do the same in a game that could result in one of these teams earning College Football Playoff consideration. We like the Under on the 1Q total.


LOOKING ORDINARY

It takes a lot to make standout Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor look mortal ? but the Ohio State Buckeyes don't seem to have a problem doing it as they face the Badgers in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Taylor rumbled to 1,761 yards and 20 touchdowns for Wisconsin this season, averaging better than 6.0 YPC for the third straight season. But there's a black mark on his 2019 resume, and it's the 20-carry, 52-yard clunker he put up in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State on Oct. 26. Taylor has just 93 rushing yards and zero touchdowns on 35 carries all-time vs. the Buckeyes.

Even with oddsmakers likely to be modest with Taylor's rushing total, bettors should probably lean toward the Under given just how dominant the Ohio State run defense has been this season (91.2 ypg against, fourth-best in FBS).


BURREAUX BY A BOATLOAD

Regardless of whether the LSU Tigers win or lose the SEC Championship Game against Georgia this Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, it's difficult to envision quarterback Joe Burrow not winning the Heisman Trophy. Burrow has been simply magnificent at the helm of the Tigers' No. 2-ranked offense, racking up 4,366 yards and 44 touchdowns and just six INTs while adding 399 rushing yards and seven scores. And Burrow has saved some of his best work for the cream of the college crop, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes with an 11/2 TD/INT ratio against nationally ranked opponents.

You might have missed your opportunity to get Burrow's Heisman futures at a decent price, but there's still money to be made at -2000. With three Ohio State players splitting the vote and no one else in the same stratosphere, Burrow is a lock to win.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bets - Totals
Matt Blunt

Considering half of the 10 title games this weekend are rematches from the regular season, there is somewhat of a benchmark to work with when handicapping these totals, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should weigh what happened in the first meeting overly heavy.

Teams have grown/regressed/changed since then in all likelihood ? outside of say the Cincinnati/Memphis game who just played last week ? and the stakes have ramped up considerably since those first meeting for some. And similar to the sides piece, I've got one 'over' and one 'under' to strongly consider, although only one of the two plays is a rematch game. Let's get to it:

Conference Championship Over to Back:

Baylor/Oklahoma Over 64.5

This is the rematch game that makes the card, as it's probably the most highly anticipated rematch game on the board this week. Depending on how the Pac-12 and SEC title games shake out, the winner of this Big 12 contest could find themselves playoff bound. And given that the Baylor Bears thought they were the 2016 Atlanta Falcons in the first meeting with the Sooners, blowing a 28-3 lead to lose 34-31, there has been plenty of talk about the Bears getting another crack at Oklahoma since that meeting. The potential of the winner being CFB Playoff bound only adds to the intrigue.

But I'm not concerned with the side outcome in this game (although I would lay it with Oklahoma if forced to), as Baylor showed some character in not slipping up in their final two regular season games after that loss. The Bears did get some help in that regard as they faced a Texas team that had no interest in finishing the year strong after all their goals were unattainable, and Kansas just isn't a very good team. But make no mistake about it, Baylor has been itching for another crack at the Sooners, and I doubt they get held off the score sheet in the 2nd half like they did in the first meeting.

Oklahoma isn't interested in digging such a deep hole for themselves either, as they've heard all the noise about how badly Baylor wants another crack at them as well. From the Sooners perspective, they played an awful 1st half of football in that first meeting and still found a way to come away with the victory. An outcome like that can only give them confidence that should they be sharp from the outset in the rematch and take care of the ball throughout, that this game will be one that ultimately goes the Sooners way in a relative easy fashion.

Either way, I do expect both sides to be out to put up points, as Baylor has to believe no lead is safe against Oklahoma, while the Sooners will be looking to blow out the Bears early to squash any hope of revenge Baylor has. ?Style points? are likely needed for whomever ends up winning this game, and when you put the whole picture together, it does suggest points will be scored.

In terms of looking at the first game, the 'under' did connect, but it was a rather lucky one considering Baylor was held scoreless in the final 30 minutes after putting up 31 points in the first 30 minutes. Obviously you could say that Oklahoma expected to score more then 10 points in the first half as well, which is what leads to the 'over' being the only way I believe you can look here.

And even though this is far from the best of the number having opened up around 62 for the rematch, I'm not sure it will matter. Oklahoma's defense is still one that can be had, and the Sooners will generally find a way to put up points themselves.

The fact that this number has been bumped up a few points since open with still the slight majority on the low side of things is telling as well, and with 65 points still put up in the 1st meeting where each team only really played a half of football up to their standards offensively, it's hard not to like the high side of this total.

After all, Baylor finished the regular season averaging 34.4 points per game, while Oklahoma clocked in at 42/game. We don't even need both sides to hit those numbers to see this one sail well over the number, although getting 70+ total points here should be the end result.

Conference Championship Under to Back:

Virginia/Clemson Under 55.5

Dabo Swinney's rhetoric about nobody respecting Clemson and sticking up for his eight-game conference schedule is nothing but old at this point, but coaches will do and say whatever they feel they need to to stick up for their team and motivate them at the same time.

Playing the 'nobody respects us' card has become a time honored tradition for Swinney and Clemson, and if that's what fires up his team and gets them to play at their best then so be it. But you know what fires me up for the ACC title game this week. The fact that Clemson hasn't got enough respect to be laying 30 points or more because that's when their totals tend to become more of a coin flip.

This year the Tigers are a perfect 0-6 O/U this year when laying less than 30 points, and in that role the past three seasons they are 7-20-1 O/U. Whatever rhetoric Swinney uses in these types of spots when the whole world expects them to win big, seems to get his defense going the best, as they've allowed just 10.5 points per game in these sub-30 favorite roles this year, and I'm not sure that changes against a Virginia team that's played well over their head offensively in recent weeks against lackluster competition.

From a Virginia perspective, they want no part of being involved in a shootout type contest with Clemson, because it's those games where talent tends to win out in the end, and the talent edge on both sides of the ball clearly sides with Clemson. Since the Cavaliers have a running QB and would prefer to methodically move the ball down the field as it is, they will be comfortable slowing down the game in their attempt to pull off a monumental upset. How successful they are at it probably won't be very, but if they can slow things down for a half at least, that can only help an 'under' wager.

In all likelihood this game turns out to be a typical Clemson ACC game where they get out to a big lead by the break and then use their running game to bleed the clock away in the second half. Virginia's defense ? which has been suspect of late too ? should be good enough given what's on the line to hold down the 2nd half scoring in that case.

You know if Clemson's defense gives up more then 10 points in this game that they'll be disappointed in themselves, and given that their last two ACC titles the past two years have come thanks to 38-3 and 42-10 scores, this year's game probably resembles those final outcomes a great deal.

 

[Cnotes53]

UP, UP, AND AWAY

You can expect the American Athletic Conference championship game Saturday between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the host Memphis Tigers to be a tight one. The Tigers come in as nearly double-digit favorites after ripping off 11 wins in 12 regular-season games while going a perfect 6-0 at home and 8-4 ATS for the season. But while the Bearcats fell short in their previous meeting, dropping a 34-24 decision in Memphis, they covered the -13.5-point spread and extended the road team cover streak to five games in the head-to-head series while improving to 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the teams.

The Bearcats are better than Saturday's spread might suggest, even with Memphis having dominated at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium this season ? and we like the AAC title game to be competitive enough for Cincinnati to make good on the cover.


REELING RAINBOW WARRIORS

When it comes to facing superior competition, Hawaii has been one of the worst teams in the country ? and that doesn't bode well at all for the Rainbow Warriors as they visit Boise State on Saturday for the Mountain West Conference championship. Hawaii looked dreadful in its three biggest games of the season, losing to Washington, Boise State and Air Force by an average of 28 points. And that extends a troubling trend for the Rainbow Warriors, who are just 7-18 ATS in their previous 25 games against teams with winning records and 5-15-1 ATS in their previous 21 as an underdog.

A return to Albertsons Stadium comes with Hawaii receiving nearly two converted touchdowns vs. the Broncos, who beat the Rainbow Warriors 59-37 in their previous meetings. We see the home side covering in the rematch.


SLOW START COMING?

Oddsmakers aren't giving Virginia much of a chance of keeping pace with the defending-champion Clemson Tigers, who look to return to the College Football Playoff as they host the Cavaliers in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game on Saturday night. Virginia comes in ranked 60th in the country in first-half points per game, thanks largely to a strong offensive stretch in which it has scored 33+ points in four straight contests. But the Tigers have shut the door on opposing teams, allowing just 3.8 first-half points per game vs. FBS teams; Clemson hasn't allowed a first-half TD since a Week 9 rout of Boston College.

Virginia's first-half team total is sitting at or around 7; we recommend the Under given Clemson's defensive dominance, which should effectively negate any offensive gains the Cavaliers have made over the past month.


BLAZERS IN BIG TROUBLE

The Alabama-Birmingham Blazers will need to stay on the field if they hope to keep up with the Florida Atlantic Owls as the Conference USA rivals tangle Saturday in their conference championship. And that could be a difficult task; UAB has one of the worst third-down conversion rates in the country, having extended a drive just 33.5 percent of the time (113th overall). And that rate might drop even further after this weekend, with FAU limiting opponents to a 32-percent success rate for the season (18th). But UAB has been even better at choking off drives, ranking fourth in the nation in third-down rate against (27.5 percent).

Look for plenty of three-and-outs in this one, which puts the Under squarely in play.

 

[Cnotes53]

Pac-12 Championship
Matt Blunt

Oregon vs. Utah
Venue/Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Time/TV: Friday, Dec. 6 (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Utah -6.5, Total 46.5

Having wrrtten Friday night college football betting previews all season, I know that the Pac-12 as a conference likes to showcase their wares on Friday's, and they get to be the lone show in town this week. The conference gets to crown their champion first and make a statement (one way or another) into how the final college football rankings will take shape. A win for Utah and they likely get into the playoff if everything else were to hold as is right now, while an Oregon win opens up the door for the Big 12 specifically, but also some debate.

The pressure is quite thick if you are a Utah fan/backer, and we all know that pressure can burst pipes or create diamonds. Which side of that equation the Utes end up falling on remains to be seen, so let's get right to breaking this game down.

The case for backing Utah in this game centers on them ending up on the ?diamonds? end of that pressure equation, as everyone knows this is a must-win for the Utes. Must win doesn't equate to will win though, and even if it did, you've got the whole pesky point spread question of will Utah win by a TD or not to deal with as well. Early action saw Utah get a bump from the opening number, but I have a hunch that was just bettors who were looking to get out ahead of the market. It's easy to assume that Utah will get the majority of support as the week goes on because of the ?must win? angle, and the motivational aspect of the Utes needing plenty of ?style points? to help their CFB Playoff case.

With that being the likely arc of the betting market for this game, getting the best of the number on Utah meant that early action was necessary, but should this line reach -7 I would expect to see some buyback come Oregon's way. And yet, it's the notion of Utah needing ?style points? that is highly intriguing to me in the sense that it's not the side I'm all that considered with, it's the total.

The total has seen nothing but 'under' action since opening at 51, and with the weather forecast projecting a lot of rain in San Francisco for this game, it's likely an early weather related move. But just like ?must win? doesn't equal ?will win,? rainy weather doesn't equal 'under' especially when you've got a team that's very used to wet weather like Oregon involved. Furthermore, let's revisit this notion of Utah needing ?style points? or a dominant win to help further their case to the CFB Playoff selection committee.

If Utah is going to get a dominant win, that means they are going to have plenty of points up on the scoreboard. Utah scored 30 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this year and never fewer then 21. With an average point total of 35.6 per game, we should be able to assume that Utah will put up what, at least 24 points in a blowout win, but most likely more right.

Defensively, the Utes have been great all year in allowing just 11.3 points per game, as only two foes have scored 20 or more against them this season ? USC and Washington. Both of those games came on the road for Utah ? this isn't a road game, but it's not a home game either ? and those two foes were two of the four teams Utah faced in Pac-12 play this year that ended up with a winning record. The other two were Arizona State and California, and Utah did hold them to a combined 3 points, but they were also home games for the Utes.

In other words, the only conference games Utah played this year against an above average (ie winning) team outside of Salt Lake City saw their foes put up at least 28 points against them. And I'm pretty sure that 33-28 win for Utah in Washington had some rainy weather involved as well. Washington and USC scored at least 7 points in seven of those eight quarters played against Utah, so it's not like it was one bad quarter/half filled with mistakes for the Utes either. Those opponents were consistently moving the ball against this stout Utah defense, and as long as Oregon shows up and is interested in playing spoiler, I believe they are capable of doing the same. Speaking of which, everyone knows it's a ?must win? spot for Utah, but how about we look at this game from an Oregon perspective.

Oregon's playoff hopes may have died a few weeks back against Arizona State, but winning the conference is still the #1 goal for every program in the country when they begin the season in August. The Ducks have an opportunity to still attain that goal and with the strength of their team being on offense, they'll rely on that side of the ball to try and get the job done. The Ducks know they are far less likely to win a 14-10 style of game here, and the more they are able to move the ball and put up points on Utah, the more the pressure ramps up on the Utes as they start to shift towards the 'pipe bursting' side of the pressure equation. How is that not good for the 'over'?

And let's say Oregon does end up no-showing in this game, knowing that they've got no playoff hopes and QB Justin Herbert is more concerned about protecting his health for his future pro career. Well, they will no show defensively as well in that scenario, and we could see Utah put up 40+ points themselves. The Utes average 35/game as it is, and with rainy weather potentially lending itself to a few turnovers, if they end up coming on the right side of the field, quick points could be put up in a hurry.

Even in that scenario ? a Utah blowout win where they score 40+ ? this game should sail 'over' the total. I mean, you'd have to go all the way back to November 2007 to find a game where this Oregon program got shut out, and they've only been held to less than 7 points once this entire decade. So even in a no-show effort from the Ducks, they should still find the end zone at least once.

I'm not so sure a no-show effort by the Ducks offense will be in the cards though, as they can still reach their main goal with a win in this game (winning a conference title) and if Herbert is more concerned about his individual future, putting a solid game tape out there against a quality defense like Utah's can only help his cause.

And when you consider that Utah being a defense-first program is not exactly a new phenomenon this year, and these two programs have met every season since 2013 with at least 57 total points scored in all of those contests (5-1 O/U), defensive slugfests just aren't the norm for these two programs. You can easily see why the 'under' got all the early action with the weather forecast and both defenses having solid season long numbers, but the bulk of those numbers have come against sub-par Pac-12 teams ? only half the conference finished with a winning record.

These are two quality teams squaring off, and in the majority of scenarios in terms of how this game likely plays out, it's not hard to see points being scored. Sure, I've been wrong on breakdowns like this before (and I will be again), but this total is just far too low now and the best way to bet this game is going on the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over 46.5

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UTAH at ORE 08:00 PM

UTAH -6.5

O 46.0

 

[Cnotes53]

No. 13 Oregon ends No. 5 Utah's playoff hopes with 37-15 win
December 6, 2019
By The Associated Press

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) The one constant all season for Utah was the ability to control the trenches against any opponent.

With a possible playoff berth and first Pac-12 title in school history on the line, the Utes more than met their match against Oregon.

CJ Verdell ran for 208 yards and broke open the game with two long touchdown runs in the fourth quarter, and No. 13 Oregon spoiled No. 5 Utah's playoff hopes with a 37-15 victory in the Pac-12 championship game Friday night.

''Unfortunately we came up short tonight,'' coach Kyle Whittingham said. ''Disappointing thing is we lost in the one area we've been undefeated this year: line of scrimmage. We didn't win the line of scrimmage for the first time all season, which is, like I say, disappointing. Surprising really.''

The Utes (11-2, No. 5 CFP) came into the game hoping to make a case for one of the four playoff spots with a conference title but instead got overmatched by Oregon (11-2, No. 13 CFP) and lost their second straight Pac-12 championship game.

Utah held 11 of 12 opponents to less than 100 yards rushing and led the nation by allowing 56.3 yards rushing per game, prompting plenty of pregame talk about how the Utes' physical dominance could be the determining factor.

The Ducks took that personally and responded.

''Definitely put a little chip on our shoulders,'' Verdell said. ''We try not to focus on the outside noise too much. Hearing they're the most physical team in the Pac-12 made us want to come out here and work even harder.''

The Utes fell into a 20-0 hole in the first half and then gave up a 70-yard TD run to Verdell after cutting the deficit to 23-15, paving the way for the winner of the Big 12 title game between Oklahoma and Baylor to get into the playoff as long as No. 1 LSU beats No. 4 Georgia for the SEC championship.

''We didn't really think far ahead but it's obvious what was at stake, more than just the Rose Bowl,'' left tackle Darrin Paulo said. ''It's disappointing. I can't really wrap my head around it right now. We knew that Oregon was a good team and we knew that we can't overlook them so we didn't look beyond that but we knew, everyone knew, what was at stake besides the Rose Bowl.''

The Utes got back into the game with TD passes from Tyler Huntley to Zack Moss and Samson Nacua in the third quarter to cut the deficit to 23-15.

Utah then drove into Oregon territory before Huntley was sacked by Keyvon Thibodeaux on second down, leading to a punt on fourth-and-4 from the 40.

Verdell struck with his big run five plays later and added a 31-yard score later in the fourth against the nation's top-ranked run defense to put the game out of reach.

That gave quarterback Justin Herbert and the rest of the senior class a Rose Bowl berth after starting their careers with a 4-8 mark in 2016.

''It's validation,'' coach Mario Cristobal said. ''It's validation for all that they've done. I don't know if anyone here has been through a 4-8 season. I've been through one of those. It's about as horrible and miserable as it gets. It causes some people to break down, some people to quit, some people to leave. Then there's a core that just puts their foot in the ground and says, `We're going to change things.'''

The Ducks sent the tone early when they stuffed Moss for no gain on two short-yardage attempts from the Oregon 33 on the opening drive. Oregon drove down and took the lead for good on Verdell's 3-yard run.

The Utes kept making more mistakes and the Ducks only added to the lead. After forcing a three and out, Oregon got a field goal on the next drive, then blocked a punt after Utah committed a false start on fourth-and-1 before Brady Breeze intercepted a pass in the end zone.

Oregon then struck on a 45-yard strike from Herbert to Johnny Johnson III and led 20-0 at the break.

THE TAKEAWAY

Utah: The Utes were seeking their biggest win since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Instead, they had a second straight disappointing performance in the conference title game after losing 10-3 to Washington last year. Now instead of a playoff berth or even a spot in the Rose Bowl, the Utes must hope to stay high enough in the playoff rankings to get into a New Year's Six game.

Oregon: The victory left as many questions for the Ducks as answers. Had Oregon not blown a 21-6 second-half lead to Auburn in the opener or come out flat in a 31-28 loss at Arizona State two weeks ago, the Ducks could have been the team with a case for a playoff berth. Instead they will have to settle for the Rose Bowl.

FOURTH DOWN DECISION

After getting stopped on three fourth and shorts and committing a false start to squander another chance, Whittingham opted to punt on fourth down in Oregon territory with less than 10 minutes to play. The Utes pinned the Ducks at the 10 but the move backfired when Oregon drove the length of the field thanks to Verdell's long run.

''I would have bet the house that our defense would have been able to get a stop,'' Whittingham said. ''Number one run defense in the country. Had a lot of confidence in them at that point. They just creased us on one. That was something we couldn't recover from.''

THIBODEAUX'S DAY

Thibodeaux came into the season as one of the most heralded recruits in the country and delivered on the biggest stage he's played on so far. He had 2 1/2 of Oregon's six sacks and also blocked a punt.

''I'm going to continue to get better,'' he said. ''You could say it's only up from here, as long as I keep putting in the work, should see good results.''

UP NEXT

Utah: Bowl game to be determined.

Oregon: The Rose Bowl against a Big Ten team on Jan. 1.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB DECEMBER/JANUARY PLAYOFF AND BOWL GAME OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/06/2019.............1-1-0.....................50.00%................-0.50

Totals......................1-1-0.....................50.00%................-0.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


12/06/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50...............1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50


TOTALS....................0 - 1............-5.50...............1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

Pitchers who allowed lowest on-base %age against them last year:

.219? Justin Verlander

.236? Gerrit Cole

.256? Jack Flaherty

.257? Jacob deGrom

.263? Hyun-Jin Ryu

.266? Max Scherzer

Quote of the Day:

?Because it?s Australia or New Zealand, and not China or Europe, it?s going to be a much more attractive avenue for kids. This generation of kids is looking for any opportunity to avoid school. If this works, you?ll definitely see more.?
An unnamed NBA scout, on HS kids skipping college to play pro ball down under

Saturday?s quiz
Vince Young led the Texas Longhorns to the 2005 national title; which team did he play most of his NFL career with? (He played 54 of 60 NFL games for this team)

Friday?s quiz
Retired tennis star Billie Jean King played a judge in an episode of Law and Order.

Thursday?s quiz
Lovie Smih was the Chicago Bears? coach the last time they played in a Super Bowl.

*******************

Saturday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??

13) Oregon 37, Utah 15? This score makes the Oklahoma-Baylor game a play-in game for the 4-team national playoff, unless Georgia upsets LSU tomorrow night. Ducks led this game 23-0, Utes got back within 23-15 but that was it.

How do you handicap a disappointed Utah team when they play in their bowl game?

12) There have been 18 conference games in college basketball so far this season; home favorites are 5-5 ATS, home underdogs are 3-5. Home teams are 8-10 ATS, underdogs 8-10.

11) Baseball?s collective bargaining agreement ends after the 2021 season; lot of people think that when 2022 starts, both leagues will have the DH, so look for NL teams to add a sluggish defensive player who can hit in the next year or so, with 2022 in mind.

Some teams will probably use the DH to give guys a day off from playing in the field, while keeping their bat in the lineup. Will be curious to see how each team handles the change.

10) San Diego Padres added OF Tommy Pham in a deal with Tampa Bay; Rays get OF Hunter Renfroe, SS prospect Xavier Edwards and a prospect to be named later. Pham hit .273 with an .819 OPS LY, with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 68 RBI, 77 runs and 25 steals LY for the Rays

9) Four college football coaches used the job opening at Florida State to get contract extensions at their current job: Iowa State?s Matt Campbell, Penn State?s James Franklin, Washington State?s Mike Leach and Indiana coach Tom Allen.

Ole Miss is set to hire Lane Kiffin as their new football coach; Kiffin could write a hell of a book, with some of the jobs he?s had? Tennessee, USC, the Raider- he was an assistant coach at Alabama, too.

8) New York Knicks fired head coach David Fizdale Friday after the team?s 4-18 start. It isn?t Fizdale?s fault; the Knicks have a terrible owner, a mediocre front office- their roster isn?t a winning one. The bigger question is this: Why did they hire Fizdale in the first place?

7) Get well soon to Jeff Tedford, who resigned as football coach at Fresno State due to health concerns; Tedford had heart problems five years ago, when he had to step down as OC with the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. No word whether his health issues now are heart related.

6) A few days after Georgetown?s off-court problems resulted in two of their starters entering the transfer portal, the Hoyas also lost a top 100 recruit for next year. Not good.

Terrance Williams is a 6-6 F from Gonzaga College HS in Washington DC who originally chose the Hoyas over Michigan and Notre Dame.

5) Florida Gators will name its basketball court after former coach Billy Donovan on February 15, during the NBA All-Star break; Donovan led the Gators to two national championships and four Final Four appearances during his 19 seasons in Gainesville.

4) Duke 77, Virginia Tech 63? Blue Devils outscored Tech 39-22 after trailing by 3 at the half; they win their ACC opener.

3) Michigan 103, Iowa 91? Wolverines scored 1.39 points/possession- there won?t be many figures higher than that anywhere all season long. Not often a team scores 103 points but no one on that team scores 20+. Iowa?s Garza scored 44 of their 91 points.

2) Patriots will re-sign Nick Folk to kick for them Sunday; he had an appendectomy couple weeks ago, so they cut him and brought in another guy last week, but that guy missed a PAT in Houston so they told him to take a hike. New England has used four kickers this year.

1) Interesting article in The Athletic about RJ Hampton, a young man who skipped college to play pro ball for the New Zealand Breakers of Australia?s National Basketball League- he hopes to be in the NBA at this time next year.

Hampton will make around $500,000 this season; he also signed a five-year shoe deal with Li-Ning. He averaged 10.5 ppg in his first six games of a 28-game season- in the short time he?s been in New Zealand, the Breakers? general manager quit, and an assistant coach walked out at an airport- the team also lost four of its first six games.

Hampton had the grades to go to college and play there, but chose this route instead. Lot of other people are watching to see how he does.

 

[Cnotes53]

SEC Championship
December 6, 2019
By Brian Edwards

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 2 LSU Tigers
Venue/Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: Saturday, Dec. 7, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -7, Total 55.5

SEC Championship History

LSU (12-0 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) is back in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game for the first time since 2011. The Tigers won the SEC West for the sixth time since the league split into divisions in 1992, going unbeaten in 12 games of an unforgettable regular season.

Senior quarterback Joe Burrow has been the catalyst, making himself tens of millions of dollars in the past three months. He?s the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at all books, and the grad transfer from Ohio State is the short ?chalk? to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft at some betting shops.

Burrow has completed 78.3 percent of his passes for 4,366 yards with an incredible 44/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He?s also run for 248 yards and three touchdowns.

Burrow will lead LSU up against Georgia, which will be making its third consecutive trip to Atlanta for the first weekend of December. The Bulldogs are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS in seven all-time appearances in the SECCG, while LSU is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in five trips.

This will be the fourth time these programs have met in this game. In 2003, LSU blasted UGA 34-13 as a three-point favorite. Two years later, the Bulldogs exacted revenge in a 34-14 victory as 2.5-point underdogs. Then in 2011, the Tigers recovered from a 10-0 deficit and exploded in the second half en route to a 42-10 triumph as 12.5-point ?chalk.?

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Ed Orgeron?s squad listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 55.5. Georgia was +220 on the money line. For first-half wagers, LSU is favored by 3.5 points at most spots.

LSU has been a single-digit favorite only once this season, capturing a 45-38 win at Texas as a 6.5-point ?chalk? in Week 2. The Tigers own other notable scalps vs. Florida (42-28), vs. Auburn (23-20), at Alabama (46-41) and vs. Texas A&M (50-7). They?ve won nine of their 12 games by margins of at least 14 points. Eight of LSU?s victories have been by at least 21 points.

Orgeron?s bunch had no problem avenging last year?s 74-72 loss at Texas A&M in seven overtimes. When the Aggies took the field at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge last Saturday night, it got ugly in a hurry. LSU darted out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, led 31-0 at intermission and coasted into the winner?s circle.

The Tigers enjoyed advantages of 31-12 and 553-169 in first down and total offense, respectively. Burrow hit on 23-of-32 passes for 352 yards and three TDs without an interception. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 87 yards and one TD on 18 attempts, while Ja?Marr Chase hauled in seven receptions for 197 yards and two TDs.

LSU is ranked second in the nation in total offense, passing yards and scoring with its 48.7 points-per-game average.

Chase has 70 catches and leads the nation in receiving yards (1,457) and TD catches (17). Justin Jefferson has 81 receptions for 1,092 yards and 13 TDs, while Terrace Marshall has 32 grabs for 456 yards and eight TDs. Marshall missed three games with an injury back in October.

Edwards-Helaire is tops in the SEC in rushing TDs (16) and third in rushing yards (1,233). The junior RB averages 6.8 yards per carry, and he also has 43 catches for 338 yards and one TD. True freshman Tyrion Davis-Price has 260 rushing yards, six TDs and a 4.6 YPC average.

Georgia (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) took its only loss in Week 7, dropping a 20-17 double-overtime decision to South Carolina as a 21-point home favorite. Since then, Kirby Smart?s team has won six games in a row while going 4-2 ATS.

UGA was in Atlanta this past weekend at Bobby Dodd Stadium, where it crushed Georgia Tech 52-7 as a 28.5-point road ?chalk.? The 59 combined points soared ?over? the 46-point total. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they saw true freshman WR George Pickens get ejected in the second half for fighting. Furthermore, star junior RB D?Andre Swift left the game with a shoulder injury and didn?t return.

Smart has downplayed the injury all week, and Swift has been listed as ?probable? since Monday. Whether Swift is 100 percent or can handle 15-20 touches vs. LSU remains to be seen. Pickens is suspended for the first half, which is even bigger news since WR Lawrence Cager is ?out? due to a sprained ankle sustained at practice the day before Thanksgiving.

Pickens has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six TDs, while Cager has made 33 catches for 476 yards and four TDs. These absences supply Georgia?s star junior QB Jake Fromm with an even greater challenge against LSU, especially in the first half without Pickens.

Fromm has dealt with the inconsistencies of a young and inexperienced group of wideouts all season long. It?s caused his numbers to go down compared to his first two years, but he?s still one of the nation?s best signal callers. Fromm connected on just 14-of-29 throws at Georgia Tech, but those completions produced 254 yards and four TDs without an interception.

Before leaving the game, Swift had 73 rushing yards on 10 carries. Brian Herrien had 46 rushing yards and one TD on eight totes. Pickens was ejected in a skirmish that occurred immediately after making a 47-yard TD reception. Tyler Simmons caught three balls for 52 yards and one TD.

UGA has seven of its games by margins of 21 points or more. The Bulldogs? best victories are vs. Notre Dame (23-17), vs. Florida (24-17 in Jacksonville), at Auburn (21-14) and vs. Texas A&M (19-13). Since their loss came to the Gamecocks, who finished 4-8 and were playing their third-string QB for 2.5 quarters due to injuries, the Bulldogs have to beat LSU in order to make the College Football Playoff.

For the season, Fromm has completed 62.0 percent of his passes for 2,385 yards with a 21/3 TD-INT ratio. All three picks were made by South Carolina sophomore CB Israel Mukuamu.

Swift has run for 1,203 yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.2 YPC. He also has 21 receptions for 198 yards and one TD. If Swift is unable to perform to his elite standards due the shoulder issue, UGA should be fine. Herrien had 466 rushing yards, six TDs, a 4.9 YPC average, 13 catches, 87 receiving yards and one TD reception. Zamir White, a former five-star recruit, has run for 311 yards and a pair of scores, averaging 5.7 YPC.

Dominick Blaylock has 17 catches for 299 yards and five TDs, while Demetris Robertson has 26 receptions for 281 yards and three TDs.

Georgia is ranked fourth in the nation in total defense, 15th at defending the pass, second in run defense and second in scoring ?D? (10.4 PPG). This unit is led by junior safety Richard Lecounte, who has recorded 53 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, three fumble recoveries, three passes broken up, two forced fumbles and two interceptions for 71 return yards.

These teams met in Baton Rouge on Oct. 13 of last season. LSU smashed Georgia 36-17 as a seven-point underdog, and the 52 combined points inched ?over? the 50-point total. Burrow completed 15-of-30 throws for 200 yards, and he did damage on the ground with 66 rushing yards and two TDs on 13 attempts. Edwards-Helaire produced 145 rushing yards on 19 carries, while Jefferson had six catches for 108 yards.

Fromm struggled the entire game, connecting on just 16-of-34 passes for 209 yards and one TD. However, he was intercepted twice. Swift ran 12 times for 72 yards.

This is UGA?s first underdog spot of the season. During Smart?s four-year tenure, the Bulldogs have gone 6-2 ATS with three outright wins in eight games as ?dogs.

Kickoff on Saturday is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

BET ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 15

B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ?over? has hit in four straight Virginia games, with those combined scores reaching 69, 82, 61 and 69 points. The Cavaliers are 28.5-point underdogs in Saturday night?s ACC Championship Game against Clemson. UVA won the ACC Coastal for the first time in program history, rallying past arch-rival Virginia Tech to win a 39-30 decision in last Friday?s regular-season finale. The victory snapped a 15-game losing streak to the Hokies. As of late Friday afternoon, the total for Clemson vs. UVA was 57 points at most spots.

--This space is often extremely critical of some head coaches ? and rightfully so! ? for their incompetent clock-management decisions. On that note, let?s go out of our way to recognize Bronco Mendenhall for a stroke of brilliance when it came to ?time and score? last week. With less than a minute remaining, UVA got a defensive TD to extend its lead from 33-30 to 39-30. This made it a two-possession game and sealed the deal. However, all quality coaches (and sharp bettors) are always thinking of worst-case scenarios that can create an unlikely result. The only way the Hokies were going to have a chance at a comeback was by blocking the PAT and returning it for a TD for two points. In order to avoid that nightmare scenario, Mendenhall sent the offense on the field and into Victory Formation to kneel on it. Hat tip to you, Bronco Mendenhall!

--Since losing a heartbreaker at home to Marshall, Florida Atlantic has won five games in a row by double-digit margins. The Owls are 4-1 ATS during that span. They?re eight-point home favorites vs. UAB in Saturday?s C-USA Championship Game in Boca Raton.

--I?m not ?reporting? anything here; I?m simply making a couple of predictions. By Sunday afternoon (or night at the latest), the new head coach at Florida State will be Mike Norvell. Also, the new man in charge of the Arkansas Razorbacks will be Lane Kiffin. I?m 95-98 percent certain on those two calls. I?m much less confident in this one, but the thinking here is that UL-Lafayette?s Billy Napier will land the Ole Miss gig. As for Missouri, who knows? Citing sources, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Friday that AD Jim Sterk presented Army?s Jeff Monken, Arkansas State?s Blake Anderson and La. Tech?s Skip Holtz as targets to the UM System Board of Curators, and some board members ?aren?t thrilled with some of the choices presented as options.? To that, I say, ?can you flippin' blame ?em?!?

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bets - Sides
December 3, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Nine conference titles will be decided on Saturday, and with it will come nine point spread results that hopefully you are on the right side of more often then not. Conference championship games have basically been a coin flip the past three years in terms of ATS wins for favorites or underdogs, as it was split right down the middle last year (5-5 ATS).

Prior to that, 2017 saw favorites go 5-3-1 ATS, while 2016 title games saw favorites finish 3-5 ATS. That's as even as it gets (13-13-1 ATS) in terms of backing favorites or underdogs, and with every favorite this year laying at least six points, I would not be surprised to see this year's results be nearly even again.

With that in mind, I've got one favorite and one underdog to back on Saturday, so let's get to it.

Conference Championship Favorite to Back:
Central Michigan (-7)

The Chippewas caught the break of the year last week when Western Michigan failed to win at Northern Illinois earlier in the week. Bad weather and sloppy execution did the Broncos in, as maybe the ?Row the Boat? culture that former HC P.J Fleck started at Western Michigan has some issues in late November when all the bodies of water have frozen over. Either way, Central Michigan had everything in front of them after that loss and took full advantage of it on Black Friday with a dominant 49-7 win over Toledo to win the MAC West and punch their ticket to this title game.

The Chippewas now face a Miami (OH) team that went through the motions last week knowing they were already assured this spot, ultimately ending a five-game winning streak in the process. But the MAC East was a much softer division by far this year, and getting a division crown on the back of beating the likes of Akron and Bowling Green ? who went a combined 3-21 SU and 4-20 ATS this year ? isn't anything special. The Redhawks were also underdogs in every single conference game outside of those Bowling Green and Akron contests which is quite telling as well.

And yet, they rode some close wins ? they were 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 points or less ? to a division crown, as they were just +35 in point differential in MAC play as it was. Eventually running good like that in tight games wears out, and against a team the quality of Central Michigan, I expect that to be the case here.

The Chippewas finished MAC play with a +121 point differential in their eight conference games, as all but one of their six wins came by at least 14 points. That type of dominant football is what leads a team like Central Michigan to a 9-3 ATS record overall this year, and they were a perfect 6-0 ATS in MAC play if they won the game outright. What that says is that if you believe the Chippewas will win the game, the point spread won't matter, and after getting new life on their 2019 season because of that Western Michigan loss, the Chippewas definitely got new life.

Central Michigan made the most of that situation in the regular season finale, and that should carry over to this week's conference title game. They are by far the better team on both sides of the ball and as long as the Chippewas protect the football ? they had 5 and 3 turnovers respectively in their two MAC losses ? this game should be one they control from start to finish.

12 years ago these two teams met in the MAC title game and as three-point favorites it was Central Michigan who came away with a 35-10 win. This year's score could end up being quite similar, as the Chippewas end their 10 year drought of being the MAC champion.

Conference Championship Underdog to Back:
Georgia Bulldogs (+7.5)
Georgia ML

So it's a done deal right? Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are going to be in the college football playoff regardless of what happens on Saturday, and then it's all up to who had more style points between Utah and Oklahoma/Baylor for that 4th spot right? I mean, that's what all the conversation seems to be about early this week. Poor old Georgia, not even in the same zip code as Dabo Swinney's ?ROY? bus right now as the consensus #4 team that controls their own destiny.

And while I do tend to agree with the first part of that idea that Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson will be CFB Playoff bound regardless, if that is the case, technically, LSU can afford a loss here right? There is no way that a one-loss LSU team who has been in the Top 2 for the entirety of the rankings would get completely bumped out of the Top 4 after a conference championship loss to the #4 team, and the Tigers have to be feeling pretty comfortable with that position as it currently stands. That's not to say LSU will no-show or anything like that, as motivation to remain undefeated and win the SEC for the first time since they beat Georgia in 2011 is still there, but they aren't fighting for everything in the same sense that the Bulldogs are.

Georgia used their regular season finale vs Georgia Tech to get the offense right again, as the concerns of not scoring TD's and settling for FG's as they had for games prior were put to bed by the second drive. After opening up with a FG vs the Yellow Jackets, Georgia went on to put up seven TD's the rest of the way to at least gain some much needed confidence on that side of the ball heading into this LSU showdown. LSU's offense has lit up everyone this year, and for as much as Georgia likes to rely on their defense to get key stops, and Kirby Smart is a defensive guy, the Bulldogs knew they have to be able to put up TD's when the opportunities are there to beat a team like LSU.

And speaking of Kirby Smart, there is something to be said for a guy who's been on the sidelines in seven of the last 11 SEC title games in some capacity. This is the third straight year he's guided Georgia to this game as the head man, but he was the DC in Alabama for all those years that the Crimson Tide found there way to this spot. That type of experience can't be overlooked in a big game like this, and even the core of his team on the field can join him there with this being their third straight appearance. Also, I'm sure Kirby Smart has contacted old pal Nick Saban to pick his brain on ideas on how to get past LSU this week too.

So all this talk about whether it will be Utah, Oklahoma or even Baylor to make it into the 4th spot in the playoff is something I'll let others waste their breath about all week.

This Bulldogs team remembers the sting of being in this identical spot a year ago ? sitting at #4 before the SEC Championship ? and blowing a 21-14 halftime, and 28-21 lead going into the 4th against Alabama. That loss had the Big 12 champ Oklahoma take their spot, and I'd venture a guess that every Georgia player that was in pads last year, and every coach that was on the sideline last year will be damned if they let it happen again.

If the Bulldogs get beat by the better team then so be it, but they'll aim to be at their best from the outset here, and I do believe they win this game outright. Remember, this is the first time on this stage for basically everyone wearing LSU colors, and if they've already got that sense of entitlement of knowing/assuming they are in the playoff regardless, Georgia will show no mercy if they are given that chance.

Georgia wins this game 28-24.


***************************************


Saturday's Best Bets - Totals
December 4, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Yesterday I took at look at two different sides to consider for Conference Championship Saturday, and for those of you that prefer totals, this piece is for you. Considering half of the 10 title games this weekend are rematches from the regular season, there is somewhat of a benchmark to work with when handicapping these totals, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should weigh what happened in the first meeting overly heavy.

Teams have grown/regressed/changed since then in all likelihood ? outside of say the Cincinnati/Memphis game who just played last week ? and the stakes have ramped up considerably since those first meeting for some. And similar to the sides piece, I've got one 'over' and one 'under' to strongly consider, although only one of the two plays is a rematch game. Let's get to it:

Conference Championship Over to Back:
Baylor/Oklahoma Over 64.5

This is the rematch game that makes the card, as it's probably the most highly anticipated rematch game on the board this week. Depending on how the Pac-12 and SEC title games shake out, the winner of this Big 12 contest could find themselves playoff bound. And given that the Baylor Bears thought they were the 2016 Atlanta Falcons in the first meeting with the Sooners, blowing a 28-3 lead to lose 34-31, there has been plenty of talk about the Bears getting another crack at Oklahoma since that meeting. The potential of the winner being CFB Playoff bound only adds to the intrigue.

But I'm not concerned with the side outcome in this game (although I would lay it with Oklahoma if forced to), as Baylor showed some character in not slipping up in their final two regular season games after that loss. The Bears did get some help in that regard as they faced a Texas team that had no interest in finishing the year strong after all their goals were unattainable, and Kansas just isn't a very good team. But make no mistake about it, Baylor has been itching for another crack at the Sooners, and I doubt they get held off the score sheet in the 2nd half like they did in the first meeting.

Oklahoma isn't interested in digging such a deep hole for themselves either, as they've heard all the noise about how badly Baylor wants another crack at them as well. From the Sooners perspective, they played an awful 1st half of football in that first meeting and still found a way to come away with the victory. An outcome like that can only give them confidence that should they be sharp from the outset in the rematch and take care of the ball throughout, that this game will be one that ultimately goes the Sooners way in a relative easy fashion.

Either way, I do expect both sides to be out to put up points, as Baylor has to believe no lead is safe against Oklahoma, while the Sooners will be looking to blow out the Bears early to squash any hope of revenge Baylor has. ?Style points? are likely needed for whomever ends up winning this game, and when you put the whole picture together, it does suggest points will be scored.

In terms of looking at the first game, the 'under' did connect, but it was a rather lucky one considering Baylor was held scoreless in the final 30 minutes after putting up 31 points in the first 30 minutes. Obviously you could say that Oklahoma expected to score more then 10 points in the first half as well, which is what leads to the 'over' being the only way I believe you can look here.

And even though this is far from the best of the number having opened up around 62 for the rematch, I'm not sure it will matter. Oklahoma's defense is still one that can be had, and the Sooners will generally find a way to put up points themselves.

The fact that this number has been bumped up a few points since open with still the slight majority on the low side of things is telling as well, and with 65 points still put up in the 1st meeting where each team only really played a half of football up to their standards offensively, it's hard not to like the high side of this total.

After all, Baylor finished the regular season averaging 34.4 points per game, while Oklahoma clocked in at 42/game. We don't even need both sides to hit those numbers to see this one sail well over the number, although getting 70+ total points here should be the end result.

Conference Championship Under to Back:
Virginia/Clemson Under 55.5

Dabo Swinney's rhetoric about nobody respecting Clemson and sticking up for his eight-game conference schedule is nothing but old at this point, but coaches will do and say whatever they feel they need to to stick up for their team and motivate them at the same time.

Playing the 'nobody respects us' card has become a time honored tradition for Swinney and Clemson, and if that's what fires up his team and gets them to play at their best then so be it. But you know what fires me up for the ACC title game this week. The fact that Clemson hasn't got enough respect to be laying 30 points or more because that's when their totals tend to become more of a coin flip.

This year the Tigers are a perfect 0-6 O/U this year when laying less than 30 points, and in that role the past three seasons they are 7-20-1 O/U. Whatever rhetoric Swinney uses in these types of spots when the whole world expects them to win big, seems to get his defense going the best, as they've allowed just 10.5 points per game in these sub-30 favorite roles this year, and I'm not sure that changes against a Virginia team that's played well over their head offensively in recent weeks against lackluster competition.

From a Virginia perspective, they want no part of being involved in a shootout type contest with Clemson, because it's those games where talent tends to win out in the end, and the talent edge on both sides of the ball clearly sides with Clemson. Since the Cavaliers have a running QB and would prefer to methodically move the ball down the field as it is, they will be comfortable slowing down the game in their attempt to pull off a monumental upset. How successful they are at it probably won't be very, but if they can slow things down for a half at least, that can only help an 'under' wager.

In all likelihood this game turns out to be a typical Clemson ACC game where they get out to a big lead by the break and then use their running game to bleed the clock away in the second half. Virginia's defense ? which has been suspect of late too ? should be good enough given what's on the line to hold down the 2nd half scoring in that case.

You know if Clemson's defense gives up more then 10 points in this game that they'll be disappointed in themselves, and given that their last two ACC titles the past two years have come thanks to 38-3 and 42-10 scores, this year's game probably resembles those final outcomes a great deal.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Group of 5 Tips
December 5, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Playing for a championship is the goal of every program and nine conference champions will be decided on Saturday.

College Playoff berths are not on the line in the Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West games but all four contests provide intriguing stakes to fill out the championship Saturday schedule.

One of eventual championship teams will also get called for the top Group of 5 spot in the New Year?s Six.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: UAB Blazers at Florida Atlantic Owls
Venue: At FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, December 7, 1:30 p.m. ET CBSSN
Line: Florida Atlantic -7?, Over/Under 49?
Last Meeting: November 1, 2014 At UAB (+3) 31, Florida Atlantic 28

The past two Conference USA Champions are facing off with Florida Atlantic the 2017 title winner while UAB will be looking for a second straight championship after improbably climbing back to the top of the standings in the final weeks of November. After taking a second conference loss with a 37-2 defeat in Hattiesburg the chances of repeating as West champions looked slim for the Blazers but UAB has won three in a row while both Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech stumbled. The head-to-head win over Louisiana Tech gets the Blazers this opportunity with a 6-2 tie on top of the West standings.

UAB was perfect at home for a third straight season as all three losses came on the road. This will be a second straight road game as UAB won at North Texas 26-21 last week to claim this spot. That win was led by freshman Dustin Hopkins at quarterback who has had to fill-in late in the season for Tyler Johnston who missed most of the last month before making a token appearance last week, though most assume Johnston will be leading the offense this weekend.

Lane Kiffin is the most well-known coach in Conference USA and the Owls climbed back to the top of the East standings with a 7-1 league record this season, out-scoring foes 291-153. That defensive scoring figure is three points worse than UAB in the eight-game slate, but the Owls scored 87 more points than the Blazers on offense. Florida Atlantic enters this game with five straight wins while scoring at least 34 points in each of those games.

Series History:
UAB won the last meeting back in 2014 in Boca Raton but is 2-4 S/U & ATS in the series since 2008. Florida Atlantic is just 4-4 S/U in the past eight home games following 10-game home winning streak. Since 2008 Florida Atlantic is just 25-39 ATS in home games but there have been many heavy favorite prices the past three years.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers
Venue: At Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
Time/TV: Saturday, December 7, 3:30 p.m. ET ABC
Line: Memphis -9?, Over/Under 57?
Last Meeting: November 29, 2018, At Memphis (-14) 34, Cincinnati 24

These will meet twice in eight days as Memphis needed to win in last week?s regular season finale to earn this spot while Cincinnati had already clinched the East title. Losing last week perhaps takes Cincinnati out of the conversation for the top Group of 5 spot for a coveted New Year?s Day slot that the AAC Champion has earned the past two seasons. Memphis will likely be that team should they defeat Cincinnati again this week.

Memphis is playing in a third consecutive AAC title game having lost to undefeated UCF teams each of the past two seasons. The Tigers are 11-1 this season in Mike Norvell?s fourth season and with a 37-15 record in four years it will be a surprise if Norvell is still in Memphis next season given several major conference openings that could make sense.

On the Friday after Thanksgiving, freshman Ben Bryant was a surprise starting quarterback for the Bearcats, in place of Desmond Ridder. The sophomore Ridder has started much of the past two seasons but has played through a shoulder issue. His numbers this season aren?t as impressive as they were last season, but presumably last week?s absence was merely to get extra rest ahead of this week?s more impactful contest. That defeat dropped Cincinnati to 10-2 with the only other loss to Ohio State.

Cincinnati?s production numbers don?t add up to a 7-1 record in AAC play as they were actually out-gained in seven of those games. The Bearcats had the top defensive scoring in the conference however with only 170 points allowed in eight games. This is Luke Fickell?s third season in Cincinnati with a combined 25-12 record.

Regular Season Meeting:
In last week?s game in this same venue, Memphis returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and led 17-3 after the first quarter. Cincinnati fought back in the game to tie at 17-17 before Memphis pulled away in the fourth quarter. Memphis had just a 432-407 yardage edge but a 3-1 turnover edge in what was Bryant?s first start. The line on last week?s game opened at -9? or -10 but shot up to -14 by kickoff.

Series History:
Memphis has a 12-11 S/U edge since 1980, going 9-10 ATS in lined games back to 1984. These teams haven?t met since 2016 with Memphis winning the past three meetings.

SUN BELT CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: UL-Lafayette Ragin? Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Venue: At Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina
Time/TV: Saturday, December 7, 12:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Appalachian State -6?, Over/Under 56
Last Meeting: October 9, 2019 Appalachian State (+2?) 17, AT UL-Lafayette 7

These teams have met seven times since 2014 with Appalachian State winning every time. Since a 63-14 win at the end of the 2017 regular season for the Mountaineers, the past three meetings have been competitive low scoring games with Appalachian State winning 27-17 in the regular season last season at home and similarly 30-19 at home in the 2018 Sun Belt title game. In the regular season this year Appalachian State won 17-7 in Lafayette in October.

Scott Satterfield departed Appalachian State after last season?s successful campaign and took over at Louisville. Eliah Drinkwitz maintained that high standard with a great first season and the 36-year-old will certainly be mentioned as a possible candidate to move up, especially given how far NC State?s offense fell this season without him. Billy Napier is now 17-9 in two seasons with the Ragin? Cajuns as another young head coach that could rise the ranks in the near future. Last season?s team finished just 7-7 after a bowl loss but with 10 wins this year?s team was a much more convincing division champion.

Both of these teams rank in the nation?s top 20 in rushing yards per game and rushing yards per attempt. Defensively there have been clear edges for Appalachian State statistically, though both teams allowed exactly 131 points in Sun Belt play and overall the Ragin? Cajuns allowed 11 fewer points on the season.

Regular Season Meeting:
These teams met early in the conference season in October and the game was tied at halftime. Up 10-7 Appalachian State completed a drive that took more than 10 minutes over 19 plays to clinch the victory with fewer than two minutes remaining. The Mountaineers had a 343-254 yardage edge in a game with no turnovers.

Series History:
Appalachian State is 7-0 S/U and 4-3 ATS since 2014 in this series, though they have failed to cover in three of four meetings at home.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: Hawai?i Warriors at Boise State Broncos
Venue: At Albertson?s Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: Saturday, December 7, 4:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Boise State -14, Over/Under 64?
Last Meeting: October 12, 2019 At Boise State (-13) 59, Hawai?i 37

Boise State has won seven consecutive meetings with Hawai?i while scoring at least 42 points in each of the past six meetings, covering each of the heavy favorite spreads in those six games going back to 2009. The Broncos have hosted the Mountain West Championship each of the past two seasons vs. Fresno State, winning the 2017 title 17-14 but losing 19-16 in overtime last season.

Boise State is in play for the top Group of 5 spot should they win to finish 12-1 with the only loss a three-point defeat at BYU. The Broncos rank 19th in the playoff standings, two spots behind #17 Memphis and one spot ahead of #20 Cincinnati as the Broncos will hope to impress and hope that Cincinnati wins the AAC title. Staying ahead of the Bearcats as well as #21 Appalachian State isn?t assured and beating Hawai?i at 5-3 in Mountain West play and 9-4 overall won?t provide a huge boost to the numbers for the Broncos.

Quarterback play has evolved throughout the season for both teams. Freshman Hank Bachmeier was a surprise starter to open the season and starred in the comeback win over Florida State in August. With a shoulder issue Bachmeier hasn?t played in the last month. Chase Cord has played significantly in three games, but the starter is now senior Jaylon Henderson who has thrown nine touchdowns with just one interception. For Hawai?i Cole McDonald?s role as the lead quarterback remains but freshman Chevan Cordeiro has played substantially as well in recent weeks.

Regular Season Meeting:
Boise State led 31-7 late in the second quarter and 52-21 through three quarters as the game was never in doubt despite some late scoring for the Warriors and a production edge of 518-438 that suggested a closer game. Hawai?i had four turnovers in that game as it was a sloppy game with high penalty counts on both sides as well.

Series History:
Boise State has gone 13-3 S/U in this series since 1996 while covering in 10 of the 15 lined games going back to 1999. Blowouts have been the norm other than a stretch of very competitive games from 2005 to 2007, including Hawai?i winning in 2007 for the WAC title. Under Bryan Harsin Boise State is 34-5 S/U at home but just 15-22-1 ATS.

 

[Cnotes53]

Clemson, UVA square off for ACC title
December 6, 2019
By The Associated Press

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is happy his players can finally make the case for themselves that they are a championship-caliber team.

The third-ranked Tigers (12-0; No. 3 CFP) take on No. 22 Virginia (9-3; No. 23 CFP) for the Atlantic Coast Conference championship on Saturday night, knowing a win cements their fifth consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff.

Swinney has spent much of his year defending his team's schedule, quarterback Trevor Lawrence's health and making the case that Clemson is worthy of being in the playoffs with a chance to defend its national title.

???People should spend more on who we are and not on who we so-call play," Swinney said. ???I could understand if we were a new kid on the block, but we've been around here for a long time."

Clemson has won two of the past three national titles and, with a win over Virginia, would become the first program with five straight championship game

???No one has ever done that," Lawrence said. ???That will be a lot of motivation for us. Just the things we set out to do, team goals."

Lawrence has not worried about outsider opinions, focusing in improving each week as the Tigers close in on the playoffs.

Lawrence has picked up his game the second half of the season. He had throw eight touchdowns and five interceptions interceptions in Clemson's first five games. Lawrence has passed for 22 touchdowns and just three picks in the final seven games heading into the championship game.

???Trevor is I think an every-10-year type of talent,??? former Florida State quarterback and ACC Network analyst EJ Manuel said.

Manuel said earlier in the year Lawrence's interceptions surprised many who expected the sophomore to be perfect.

???If you win games, if you win championships, that's how you're evaluated," he said.

Lawrence will have plenty of offensive help with tailback Travis Etienne - named the ACC player of the year earlier this week, and receivers Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, who have combined for 1,568 yards and 17 touchdowns.

???Basically everyone that touches the ball is very skilled, very capable," Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall said. ???Clemson's ranking and their success is not accidental."

Some other things to know about Virginia-Clemson matchup in the ACC championship game:

HANDLING THE STAGE

Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence said the key to handling the big stage is not letting it get too big, and Bronco Mendenhall said he addressed that with his team.

???We have not been on the stage, nor are we pretending that we have and I think just saying that to the team alleviates all this extra stuff. We have not been there. They have. It???s new for us. It???s not new to them. ... When we get there, we???ll play football, which is what we know how to do.???

PERKING UP

Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins is among three players this year with at least 2,900 passing yards and 600 rushing yards, joining Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts and Louisiana-Monroe's Caleb Evans with that distinction. Perkins leads the ACC in total offense with 3,636 yards.

FAST FRIENDS

Clemson's Dabo Swinney and Virginia's Tony Bennett have developed a friendship rooted in their national championships. Bennett's basketball team played at Clemson last January when Swinney and the Tigers were celebrating their national title and the two spoke briefly.

But in March Swinney had an urge to call Bennett in the midst of the NCAA Tournament and tell him the Cavaliers would win a crown of their own. The two have chatted since, although Swinney does not expect to hear from Bennett before the ACC championship game.

STRANGE SERIES

Clemson won the first 29 times the two schools played football, but things have been much more even since that run ended in 1989 with the Tigers holding a 9-8-1 edge since. This is the first meeting between the schools since Clemson's 59-10 victory in 2013.

EARNING RESPECT

Swinney's not the only one seeking respect this season. Virginia linebacker Zane Zandier said people don't give the Cavaliers much of a chance, even though they were the Coastal Division preseason favorite. ???We're going to try and win the game,???he said. "We're not just going to sight-see.