Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

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STRIKE FIRST, STRIKE HARD

When it comes to kicking off the scoring, the Oklahoma Sooners have come correct as they prepare to face the Baylor Bears in Saturday's Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium. The Jalen Hurts-led offense has been a dynamo in the opening stages of games this season, scoring first in 11 of 12 regular-season outings (nine touchdowns, two field goals). But the Bears have been no slouch themselves, having scored the first points eight times in their 12 regular-season games ? each time with a touchdown. That jibes with how the teams handled the other three quarters, combining for 126 touchdowns against just 25 field goals.

The 6-way First Score Method prop should be a profitable one, with an Oklahoma TD paying out at +120 and the Baylor TD set at +200. Bettors can't go wrong with either play, though the Sooners present the slightly safer option.


SLOW STARTERS?

The LSU Tigers might be armed with one of the top offenses in the nation, but they might struggle to make early inroads as they square off against the Georgia Bulldogs to decide the SEC championship on Saturday. LSU owned one of the top first-quarter offenses in the country, averaging 11.0 points per game against FBS opponents. But the Bulldogs are no ordinary opponent for Joe Burrow and Co.; they faced three ranked opponents during the regular season ? No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Florida and No. 12 Auburn ? and kept all three off the scoreboard in the opening quarters of their respective games.

With the Tigers and Bulldogs combining to limit opponents to 4.3 first-quarter points per game, it's hard to see these teams not converting the Under on the first-quarter game total.


ONE-SIDED AFFAIR?

With the utmost respect to Virginia, it will take a minor miracle for the Cavaliers to pull off the upset victory over the defending champion Clemson Tigers in Saturday's ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Ignoring completely how dominant the Clemson offense can look when it gets going, Virginia will be forced to air it out against a Tigers pass defense that allowed just six passing touchdowns all season. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 48.3 percent of their pass attempts for the season while averaging a minuscule 126.5 passing yards per game, easily the lowest rate in the country.

With the Cavaliers a long shot to do anything on offense and that Clemson attack sure to keep Virginia's defense on the field, this one could get positively ugly. The 43-or-more Winning Margin option might be an intriguing one here at +500.


WILL THEY OR WON?T THEY?

Just how dominant are the Ohio State Buckeyes? Oddsmakers have set +100 odds on their opponents ? the No. 8 team in the nation, no less ? to score not even one first-quarter point in Saturday's Big Ten title game. And while the Wisconsin Badgers did come up empty in the opening quarter of their 38-7 loss to Ohio State earlier in the season, they still finished inside the top-40 in first quarter points per game (7.2). And for as dominant as the Buckeyes' defense has been throughout the 2019 campaign, it has surrendered 20 first-quarter points over its previous three games.

Come on ... if Rutgers can score first-quarter points vs. Ohio State, surely the Badgers can, too. Right? We think it's worth a shot at +100 for Wisconsin to finish Over 0.5 points in the opening 15 minutes.
 

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Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Baylor at Oklahoma (-9/65), 12 p.m. ET, ABC:
Following Utah's unexpected loss in the Pac-12 championship, we get Championship Saturday off with a bang since the winner of this one will feel really good about their chances of being ranked among the CFP's top four to secure a spot in the national semifinals. The Bears will need a lot more help than a Sooners team that didn't skate at the beginning of the season against the likes of Stephen F. Austin, UT-San Antonio and Rice.

Despite their non-ambitious schedule, the Bears would be top-four at the moment had they not blown a 25-point lead three weeks ago when they hosted the Sooners in a 34-31 game that will be constantly referenced throughout this one. Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts threw four TD passes but turned the ball over three times, clearly missing the presence of star WR CeeDee Lamb. One of the country's top receiving prospects, Lamb was unavailable for that game but is returning here.With no weather variables in play at Arlington's AT&T Stadium, the question simply becomes whether you believe the Bears team that torched Oklahoma's suspect defense can re-emerge with QB Charlie Brewer finding Denzel Mims or a team that couldn't get out of its own way in the second half won't give themselves a chance.

Oklahoma is looking to become the first "Power-5" team to win five consecutive conference titles since Alabama accomplished the feat from 1971-75. Kennedy Brooks is averaging a Big 12-best 7.2 yards per carry, which should lighten Hurts' load and keep a Bears defense featuring the conference's defensive player of the year, James Lynch, from getting to Hurts.The line has come down to 8.5 at Caesars and a total that opened at 62 has been bet to 65.

Miami, Ohio at Central Michigan (-6.5/54.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2:
Jim McElwain has done an amazing job in Mount Pleasant, turning a 1-11 football team into a division champion in his first season back in coaching after flaming out at Florida. He?ll be looking to become the first CMU head coach since Butch Jones to win the conference in his first season and may find himself with a bigger gig given the job he?s done building a team with excellent schemes and really solid development, taking a team picked to finish last to their first conference title appearance since ?09.

Miami got hot following its 76-5 loss to Ohio State and has proven resilient in riding its defense. QB Brett Gabbert, younger brother of former NFL QB Blaine Gabbert, has had some nice moments as a first-year starter for the Redhawks, but the offense ranked next-to-last in the MAC in total yardage. Tennessee transfer Quinten Dormady has been excellent for the Chippewas in running McElwain?s system and can beat you with his legs as well. The Chips have gone 8-1-1 ATS over their last 10 games while the ?under? has hit in four of the past five games involving Miami, so identities here are well-established. CMU opened at 4.5-point favorite but that figure has been bet up to a 6.5. The total opened at 53 and moved to 54.5. This game will be played inside Ford Field, so the icy Detroit weather will only be a factor when the teams get out of bed in the morning and commute.

Louisiana at Appalachian State (-6.5/58), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN:
The Mountaineers will look to pick up their second straight title and benefit from hosting this contest. Even though Ragin? Cajuns fans travel well, this is a tough ask since Appalachian State isn?t the easiest place to get to. Potentially brutal weather will take it easy on both teams since temperatures will creep into the 40s and neither wind, snow or rain will be a factor. There is a revenge angle in place since Louisiana lost this exact same matchup 30-19 last season as a 17-point underdog. They fell in this year?s regular-season matchup 17-7 despite being favored at home on Oct. 9 in what was by far their least productive offensive showing of the season. Consider that their second-lowest scoring output was the 28 points they managed in a season-opening loss to Mississippi State and you can imagine the ?Cajuns will try to be aggressive early, which makes the first-half ?over? attractive.

The ?under? is on a 6-1 run in Louisiana-Lafayette games despite it averaging 39.5 points per game on its six-game winning streak after losing at home to the Mountaineers. Appalachian State would be perfect if not for a 24-21 setback at home on Halloween night against 14-point underdog Georgia Southern. The Eagles controlled that game?s tempo and ran the ball effectively, which is what Louisiana will look to accomplish behind NFL-caliber back Trey Ragas, who forms a three-pronged attack alongside Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais in what is the nation?s sixth-best rushing attack. Levi Lewis has only been picked off three times but does have issues getting the ball downfield. Counterpart Zac Thomas has been the Sun Belt?s top quarterback for the last two seasons and leans on RB Darrynton Evans, who won conference player of the year honors after a 20-touchdown season. Appalachian State has given up 15 or fewer points in six of the last eight games, but their top non-conference wins ? Charlotte and UNC ? both came in shootouts.

Virginia at Clemson (-29/55.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC:
The Tigers don?t need style points to secure their spot in the CFP final four, but I can?t imagine losing outright would allow them to maintain their spot in the playoff since the ACC has been such a dumpster fire this season. The Cavaliers rely heavily on QB Bryce Perkins, who has thrown it or run it on 78 percent of his team?s possessions. That makes it easy to game plan against the ?Hoos, who didn?t have to play Clemson this season but lost at Notre Dame in addition to league losses at Miami and Louisville.

The Tigers have been annoyed by talk of the ACC dragging them down since the defending champs have navigated the only schedule they could play, overcoming their obstacles rather handily with the exception of a 21-20 win at North Carolina back in late September. Although they?ve deflected all talk about style points over the past few months, every win they?ve had since has come by over 31 points, including their higher-profile wins over FSU, Louisville and Wake Forest. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games, giving up 14 or fewer points each time out while scoring at least 45 in every contest except last week?s 38-3 rout at South Carolina. QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 22 touchdowns and been picked off just three times since the near-upset against the Tar Heels. Per the AP, Perkins is among three players this year with at least 2,900 passing yards and 600 rushing yards, joining Oklahoma?s Hurts and Louisiana-Monroe?s Caleb Evans. Perkins leads the ACC in total offense with 3,636 yards. He?ll be the top dual-threat QB Clemson has seen since a 24-10 loss to Texas A&M in which the Tigers took advantage of Kellen Mond. Temperatures in Charlotte will be in the 40s.
 

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ULL at APP 12:00 PM
APP -6.0
O 58.0


BAY at OKLA 12:00 PM
BAY +9.0
O 66.5


M-OH at CMU 12:00 PM
M-OH +6.5
O 55.5


UAB at FAU 01:30 PM
FAU -9.0
O 49.0


CIN at MEM 03:30 PM
MEM -10.0
O 58.5


HAW at BSU 04:00 PM
HAW +13.5
O 65.0

UGA at LSU 04:00 PM
UGA +7.0
O 57.0


UVA at CLEM 07:30 PM
UVA +28.0
U 56.5


OSU at WIS 08:00 PM
WIS +16.5
O 52.5
 

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No. 1 LSU locks up playoff spot, routing No. 4 Georgia
December 7, 2019
By The Associated Press


ATLANTA (AP) Joe Burrow finished off what seems like his Heisman Trophy coronation with another dazzling performance and No. 1 LSU locked up a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time, dominating No. 4 Georgia 37-10 in the Southeastern Conference championship game Saturday.

The Tigers, going for their first national title since 2007 season, will either return to Atlanta or head west to suburban Phoenix for a semifinal game Dec. 28. Their bowl site and opponent will be announced Sunday, but they surely made a persuasive case to be the top overall seed in the four-team field.

Burrow was all over the stat sheet for LSU (13-0, No. 2 CFP). He threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns. He was the Tigers' second-leading rusher with 41 yards on 11 carries, often leaving the Bulldogs grasping at air as he twirled this way and that. He even caught a pass on a ball that was batted down at the line and wound up his arms, taking off for a 16-yard gain.

Tigers put up 481 yards of offense, but the most encouraging aspect of this game was another strong performance from LSU's defense. It followed up a 50-7 rout of Texas A&M in the regular-season finale with another championship-worthy showing against the Bulldogs, who were held to 286 yards.

Georgia (11-2) appears likely to make its second straight appearance in the Sugar Bowl against Baylor, loser of the Big 12 championship game.

BIG TEN

NO. 2 OHIO STATE 34, NO. 10 WISCONSIN 21


INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Justin Fields threw three touchdown passes in the second half, J.K. Dobbins ran for 172 yards and a score and Ohio State sealed its first playoff trip in three years by shutting out Wisconsin in the second half in the Big Ten championship game.

The Buckeyes (13-0, No. 1 CFP) claimed their third straight league title and enter the postseason with a 19-game winning streak.

Wisconsin (10-3, No. 8 CFP) has lost seven straight in the series though this one didn't follow the usual script.

The Badgers, who lost 38-7 at Ohio State in October, scored the first 14 points - Ohio State's largest deficit of the season. Wisconsin led 21-7 at the half. But just like the first game, the Buckeyes turned it on in the third quarter.

Jeremy Ruckert started the comeback with a spectacular one-handed catch in the back of the end zone on the fifth play of the third quarter. The 16-yard pass cut the deficit to 21-14.

Four plays later, Wisconsin punter Anthony Lotti dropped the ball and was tackled at the Badgers 16. Ohio State converted that miscue into a 27-yard field goal.

And after Wisconsin missed a 48-yard field goal wide left on its next series, Fields hooked up with K.J. Hill for a 16-yard pass and 24-21 lead with 2:23 left in the third quarter.

Fields added a 13-yard TD pass to Hill early in the fourth quarter to give the Buckeyes a 31-21 lead and the Buckeyes closed the scoring with a 24-yard field goal. Fields was 19 of 31 with 299 yards and no interceptions.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

NO. 3 CLEMSON 62, NO. 22 VIRGINIA 17


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, three to Tee Higgins, and Clemson beat Virginia to win its fifth consecutive Atlantic Coast Conference title.

The defending national champion Tigers (13-0; No. 3 CFP) have won 28 games in a row and head to the College Football Playoff with chance for a third crown in four years.

And while Virginia (9-4; No. 23 CFP) and quarterback Bryce Perkins put forth a game plan that caused the Tigers to sweat early on, there was no stopping Clemson's dazzling set of experienced playmakers led by Lawrence and Higgins on the way to ACC championship game records for points and yards (621),

Lawrence set an ACC title-game record with his four touchdown throws and had 302 yards passing, his second best total this season, and completed 16 of 22 passes before coming out in the third quarter.

Higgins finished with 182 yards receiving yards and the three TDs, both bests in ACC Championship game play. Travis Etienne had 114 yards, his eighth game over 100 yards this season.

BIG 12

NO. 6 OKLAHOMA 30, NO. 8 BAYLOR 23, OT


ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) - Rhamondre Stevenson had a 5-yard touchdown run in overtime and Oklahoma made its bid for another playoff berth with the victory over Baylor in the Big 12 championship game.

A day after No. 5 Utah lost in the Pac-12 championship game, and before No. 4 Georgia lost to No. 1 LSU for the SEC title, the Sooners (12-1, No. 6 CFP) won their fifth consecutive Big 12 title, and 13th overall. Oklahoma went to the playoff three of the past four seasons.

Baylor (11-2, No. 7 CFP) tied it in the fourth quarter after two long passes by freshman Jacob Zeno, the second quarterback used after starter Charlie Brewer left the game in the second quarter following a big hit he delivered on a defender.

There was an 81-yard catch-and-run touchdown by Trestan Ebner with 9:41 left in regulation and a 78-yarder to Chris Platt that set up John Mayers' third field goal, a 27-yarder with 3:25 left to make it 23-all.

After Oklahoma scored on three plays to start overtime, Zeno was under tremendous pressure on Baylor's chance. There were two incompletions before he was sacked for a 10-yard loss, and then he was under distress again when he flung a game-ending pass that fell to the ground. The Bears had only 105 total yards before the 81-yard TD pass in the fourth quarter. They finished with 265.

Jalen Hurts, who last year led Alabama's comeback win over Georgia in the SEC title game, was 17-of-24 passing for 278 yards and a touchdown for the Sooners. CeeDee Lamb had eight catches for 173 yards after missing the previous game against the Bears.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

NO. 16 MEMPHIS 29, NO. 21 CINCINNATI 24


MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) - Antonio Gibson caught a 6-yard touchdown pass from Brady White with 1:14 left and Memphis beat Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference championship game.

After the game, two people with knowledge of the decision said Memphis coach Mike Norvell will be introduced Sunday as Florida State's coach. The people spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because an official announcement has not been made.

Memphis (12-1, No. 17, CFP) finally won the AAC title in its third straight conference championship game. The Tigers now wait for an invitation to the Cotton Bowl as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.

Eight days after beating the Bearcats 34-24 at home in the regular-season finale, Memphis rallied for another win. Along with scoring the go-ahead touchdown, Gibson ran for 130 yards, including a 65-yard TD dash.

Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder, who did not play last week against Memphis, passed for 233 yards and ran for 113 more.

The game became a back-and-forth battle in the fourth quarter. Sam Crosa's 33-yard field goal with 4:23 left gave the Bearcats (10-3, No. 20 CFP) a 24-23 lead. On the Tigers' next drive, Gibson caught two passes and ran five times, setting Memphis up at the Cincinnati 6. On the scoring play, Gibson was split right and caught White's pass.

MOUNTAIN WEST

NO. 19 BOISE STATE 31, HAWAII 10


BOISE, Idaho (AP) - Jaylon Henderson threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score to lead No. 19 Boise State to a 31-10 victory over Hawaii in the Mountain West championship game.

Boise State (12-1, No. 19 CFP) won its second conference title in three years, beating Hawaii again this season after winning the Oct. 12th meeting, 59-37. After rolling up 518 yards of offense in the first game, the Broncos leaned on their defense in the rematch.

The Broncos made two defensive stands inside the 5, once in the second quarter and another early in the third.

Hawaii (9-5) was making its first appearance in the title game. It enjoyed some success through the air with Cole McDonald passing for 241 yards, but couldn't overcome early problems in the red zone.

Tied at 3 late in the first half, Boise State scored two touchdowns in a 53-second span on a pair of 36-yard touchdown strikes. Henderson dropped the first one into Khalil Shakir on a streak down the near sideline with 1:07 remaining in the half.

Then after Boise State stuffed Hawaii to get the ball back with 38 seconds remaining, Henderson fired a bullet to John Hightower, who made a leaping catch as he was undercut but used his left hand to maintain his balance before racing into the end zone.

SUN BELT

NO. 20 APPALACHIAN STATE 45, LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 38

BOONE, N.C. (AP) - Darrynton Evans scored three touchdowns and Appalachian State repeated as Sun Belt Conference champion with the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette.

Evans won the game's MVP for the second straight season.

Zac Thomas threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns, and Daetrich Harrington and Marcus Williams added touchdown runs. The Mountaineers racked up 416 yards on offense, including 267 on the ground in a dominating first half.

The Mountaineers (12-1) have won at least a share of four straight Sun Belt championships.

Levi Lewis threw for a Sun Belt championship game-record 354 yards and four touchdowns for Lafayette (10-3, 8-2).

Miami-Ohio holds off CMU for MAC
December 7, 2019

DETROIT (AP) As long as Miami of Ohio kept the game close, coach Chuck Martin could feel reasonably confident.

''I told the kids at halftime, down 14-10, I said, `It feels kind of at home guys,''' Martin said. ''`Kind of a little bit ugly, make a couple plays here and there. They probably feel like they should be up by more, but they're not up by more.'''

Brett Gabbert threw a 31-yard touchdown pass to Jack Sorenson early in the third quarter, and Miami controlled most of the second half, beating Central Michigan 26-21 in the Mid-American Conference title game Saturday. The RedHawks won a record 16th MAC championship despite doing little on offense in the first half.

Trailing 14-10 after two quarters, Miami took the lead on Gabbert's screen pass to Sorenson, and the RedHawks (8-5) held off CMU (8-5) the rest of the way to win their first conference title since 2010.

Five of Miami's last six victories this year have been by seven points or fewer.

Sam Sloman kicked four field goals, including a 48-yarder with 4:06 remaining to give Miami a 23-14 lead. CMU's Tommy Lazzaro scored on a 4-yard run with 1:24 remaining, and the Chippewas recovered an onside kick - but were called offside. CMU was offside again on the re-kick, but it went out of bounds anyway, and Miami took over.

Sloman added a 42-yard field goal with 28 seconds left.

''I was ready for those last 30 seconds to be over,'' Sloman said.

A Hail Mary by CMU fell incomplete on the final play of the game.

Miami managed just 61 yards of offense in the first half but stayed in the game thanks to a couple big plays on special teams. Maurice Thomas returned the opening kickoff 97 yards, setting up a 1-yard touchdown run by Jaylon Bester.

CMU equalized on a 21-yard scoring run by Lazzaro, but in the second quarter, the Chippewas had a fake punt stopped at their own 19. That allowed the RedHawks to take a 10-7 lead on Sloman's 41-yard field goal.

''As I told the team coming into the game, it wasn't like we were going to carry anything and not use it. We were going to empty our bags,'' CMU coach Jim McElwain said of the unsuccessful trick play. ''We had the look. Credit them, they defensed it. The numbers were good. We just didn't get it done.''

CMU went ahead for the first time on Quinten Dormady's 11-yard touchdown pass to Tyrone Scott with 30 seconds left in the half.

The Chippewas were trying to win their first MAC title since 2009. This was their first loss in a MAC championship game. CMU had won its previous three appearances.

Down 20-14 in the fourth quarter, the Chippewas drove to the Miami 27, but Dormady's pass was intercepted by Travion Banks.

Banks appeared to run the interception all the way back for a touchdown, but a penalty during the return brought the ball back to the Miami 11. Soon after that, CMU's Troy Brown was ejected for targeting, and the RedHawks were able to drive into field goal range.

THE TAKEAWAY

Miami: The RedHawks needed a strong defensive performance to win, and they got one - plus plenty of help on special teams. Miami seemed to be in trouble at halftime, but the RedHawks were much sharper offensively in the final two quarters.

CMU: The Chippewas did well just to make the championship game after going 1-11 last season, but this was a winnable game that got away during the second half.

''I thought up front, they did a really good job handling what we were trying to do,'' said McElwain, who is in his first season as CMU's coach. ''They had a good plan. They just beat us.''

EMOTIONAL WEEK

CMU radio broadcaster Don Chiodo died in a car crash Wednesday.

''I know Don had a huge impact on, just not the football team, but all of Central Michigan,'' receiver Kalil Pimpleton said. ''We was out there playing for him. Regardless of whether we lost, I know he was proud of us.''

UP NEXT

Miami: The RedHawks rank first in MAC history with seven bowl wins and will hope to add to that total this season.

CMU: The Chippewas can also expect a bowl bid.


FAU rolls UAB 49-6 for CUSA title
December 7, 2019


BOCA RATON, Fla. (AP) Facing fourth-and-goal very early in a scoreless game, Lane Kiffin did not even hesitate in his call to leave his Florida Atlantic offense on the field.

What a rebel.

No, really. He's off to Ole Miss - to coach the Rebels.

FAU turned that decision into a touchdown and kept rolling from there, going on to a surprisingly easy 49-6 win over UAB in the Conference USA championship game on Saturday. Chris Robison threw for 267 yards and four touchdowns, BJ Emmons ran for a pair of scores and the Owls - in Kiffin's finale - sent their coach off with his second league title in three years.

Kiffin resigned shortly after the game, and Mississippi announced his hire minutes later.

''Coach Kiffin deserves our thanks and a great deal of credit for continuing to build our football program to high levels of success,'' FAU athletic director Brian White said.

Malcolm Davidson rushed for 128 yards and Deangelo Antoine had five catches for 112 yards and a score for the Owls (10-3), who led 35-6 at halftime and had no trouble with the league's top-ranked defense. UAB (9-4) allowed a season-high in points and a season-high 585 yards.

It was a matchup of the last two Conference USA champions - FAU in 2017, UAB in 2018 - and it was never in doubt.

''Hats off to FAU for a great performance today,'' UAB coach Bill Clark said. ''Very complimentary of them. Obviously, they've got a very good team.''

So FAU got to celebrate a title.

The other schools in Conference USA get to celebrate as well, with Kiffin now leaving. He went 20-6 in league games with the Owls, including a pair of romps in conference title games.

''They're champs again,'' Kiffin said. ''That trophy is back here. That's pretty neat.''

And if he was distracted in any way by all the buzz surrounding his next move - Ole Miss tweeted out cryptic references to him Saturday afternoon, and FAU football highlights were shown on the jumbotron at the Rebels' basketball game - Kiffin hid it all well.

When UAB jumped early on fourth-and-inches from its own 35 early in the second quarter, Kiffin threw both fists over his head then clapped for several seconds. A UAB penalty a few moments later had him punching the air again.

And when FAU blocked a punt for a touchdown and a 28-3 lead midway through the second, Kiffin took off in a 40-yard sprint, leaping several times along the way. The rout was on, and the farewell was already becoming a celebration.

FAU got a restart when Kiffin arrived in 2017. UAB actually restarted its program the same year, after a brief hiatus.

Clark tipped his cap to Kiffin afterward.

''I think for our program, to be where we are, I humbly say how proud I am of coaches and players,'' Clark said. ''And then on the other side, same thing for him. To be two-time conference champs out of three years says a lot about them.''

THE TAKEAWAY

UAB: The first half was most uncharacteristic for UAB from a defensive standpoint. UAB came into Saturday having allowed 11.3 points per game in first halves this season - but this one was over by intermission. It was only the second time since the Blazers brought their program back in 2017 that they allowed 28 points by halftime. North Texas scored 30 in the first half on UAB back on Sept. 23, 2017.

FAU: Kiffin improved to 26-13 in his three seasons with the Owls. In the eight seasons before he arrived, FAU went 28-68. And in his time with the Owls, Kiffin had more 10-win seasons - two - than he had in his five years combined at Tennessee and USC. He went 10-2 with the Trojans in 2011.

SUNSHINE STATE SUCCESS

There are seven FBS schools in the state of Florida - and Florida Atlantic is one of only three with multiple 10-win seasons since Kiffin took over as coach. UCF has two and could get to three if the Knights win their bowl game. Florida has two, FAU now has two. Miami and South Florida have one each, while Florida State and FIU have none in that span.

UP NEXT

Both teams will learn their bowl destinations on Saturday.
 

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Saturday's best
December 7, 2019
By The Associated Press


STARS

-Joe Burrow, LSU, threw for 349 yards and four TDs to finish off what seems like his Heisman Trophy coronation as the No. 1 Tigers locked up a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time, dominating No. 4 Georgia 37-10 in the Southeastern Conference championship game.

-J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State, ran for 172 yards and a score and then No. 2 Buckeyes sealed their first playoff trip in three years by shutting out No. 10 Wisconsin in the second half in a 34-21 victory in the Big Ten championship game.

-Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, threw four touchdown passes, three to Tee Higgins, and the defending national champions dismantled No. 22 Virginia 62-17 for a fifth consecutive Atlantic Coast Conference title.

-Samori Toure, Montana, broke the FCS playoff single-game record with 303 receiving yards on 12 catches in the Grizzlies' 73-28 rout of Southeast Louisiana in a second-round playoff game.

-Antonio Gibson, Memphis, caught a 6-yard TD pass from Brady White with 1:14 left and ran for 130 yards, helping the No. 16 Tigers defeat No. 21 Cincinnati 29-24 in the American Athletic Conference championship game.

-James Robinson, Illinois State, rushed for 210 yards and two TDs as the Redbirds knocked off eighth-seeded Central Arkansas 24-14 in the second round of the FCS playoffs.

-Darrynton Evans, Appalachian State, scored three TDs and the 20th-ranked Mountaineers won their fourth straight Sun Belt championship overall with a 45-38 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette.

-Tucker Rovig, Montana State, passed for 279 yards and three TDs in leading the Bobcats to a second-round FCS playoff victory over Albany 47-21.

-Ben DiNucci, James Madison, accounted for 339 yards and four TDs in a 66-21 victory over Monmouth in the second round of the FCS playoffs.

---

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

LSU is headed to the College Football Playoff for the first time, thanks to a dominating performance against Georgia.

oe Burrow finished off what seems like his Heisman Trophy coronation with another dazzling performance and No. 1 LSU locked up a spot in the CFP by dominating No. 4 Georgia 37-10 in the Southeastern Conference championship.

The Tigers, going for their first national title since 2007 season, will either return to Atlanta or head west to suburban Phoenix for a semifinal game Dec. 28. Their bowl site and opponent will be announced Sunday, but they surely made a persuasive case to be the top overall seed in the four-team field.

Burrow was all over the stat sheet for LSU (13-0, No. 2 CFP). He threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns. He was the Tigers' second-leading rusher with 41 yards on 11 carries, often leaving the Bulldogs grasping at air as he twirled this way and that. He even caught a pass on a ball that was batted down at the line and wound up his arms, taking off for a 16-yard gain.

Tigers put up 481 yards of offense, but the most encouraging aspect of this game was another strong performance from LSU's defense. It followed up a 50-7 rout of Texas A&M in the regular-season finale with another championship-worthy showing against the Bulldogs, who were held to 286 yards.

Georgia (11-2) appears likely to make its second straight appearance in the Sugar Bowl against Baylor, loser of the Big 12 championship game.

---

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins spent the first half scratching their heads.

Then, Ohio State's dynamic duo - and teammates -- reverted to their previously impressive form.

Fields threw three touchdown passes in the second half, Dobbins ran for 172 yards and a score and No. 2 Ohio State sealed its first playoff trip in three years by shutting out No. 10 Wisconsin in the second half in a 34-21 victory in the Big Ten championship game.

The Buckeyes claimed an unprecedented third straight outright league title and enter the postseason with a 19-game winning streak. The College Football Playoff selection committee will announce the four playoff teams Sunday, and first-year coach Ryan Day was already lobbying for the top spot before leaving the field.

---

ACC TITLE GAME

Trevor Lawrence believes No. 3 Clemson is better than it was a year ago. He and the Tigers will get the chance to prove it in the College Football Playoffs.

Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, three to Tee Higgins, and the defending national champions dismantled No. 22 Virginia 62-17 for a fifth consecutive Atlantic Coast Conference title. The Tigers won their 28th straight game and become the first program with that many wins in a row in a league title game.

Virginia showed off a game plan that caused the Tigers a few early headaches. But Clemson's talent quickly took control on the way to an ACC championship game record for points and yards (619).

---

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP

No. 6 Oklahoma has done all it can, winning a fifth Big 12 title in a row with another close win over No. 8 Baylor.

Now the Sooners wait to see if they are going to get in back in the College Football Playoff. That is up to the selection committee, though it will be virtually impossible to keep Oklahoma from being one of those four teams after a 30-23 overtime win.

Rhamondre Stevenson had a 5-yard touchdown run in overtime, and then true freshman Jacob Zeno - whose two long passes in the fourth quarter helped tie the game - was under constant pressure when Baylor got its last chance.

A day after No. 5 Utah lost in the Pac-12 championship game, and before No. 4 Georgia fell 37-10 to No. 1 LSU in the SEC title game, Oklahoma became the first team in any league to win 10 conference championship games. It was the 13th Big 12 title overall for the Sooners, who went to the playoff three of the past four seasons.

---

NUMBERS

17-Southwest Athletic Conference titles by Alcorn State after a 39-24 win over Southern.

23-Rushing TDs by Montana's Marcus Knight to break the school record. His 25 overall TDs also are a school record.

34-Straight wins by North Dakota State after beating Nicholls 37-13 in an FCS playoff game.

47-Points scored by Montana State against Albany, a school record for a playoff game.
 

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Monday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 14 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Bills (747) +5.5- L

5) Saints (787) -2.5- L

4) Chiefs (803) +3- W

3) 49ers (809) +2.5- W

2) Bengals (895) +8.5- W

1) Rams (899) even- W

2019 record: 45-36-3

Quote of the Day:
?I?d say that it wasn?t handled right. He?s (Odell Beckham) not able to run as well as he as should be able to, as well as he knows. And that?s frustrating for him. You can sense some of his frustration, where that comes from. It wasn?t handled the right way, in our training room. It is what it is. His not 100% is still good enough for us.?
Baker Mayfield, who talks a lot

Monday?s quiz
Where did Steph Curry play his college basketball?

Sunday?s quiz
The first SEC football championship game was played at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL

Saturday?s quiz
Vince Young led the Texas Longhorns to the 2005 national title; he played 54 of his 60 NFL games for the Tennessee Titans.

**************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday??.

49ers 48, Saints 46:
? 49ers? first five drives: 22 plays, 296 yards, four TD?s.
? Niners are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog, 5-0 TY.
? 49ers drove 63 yards in seven plays, kicked GW 30-yard GW FG at the gun.

? Saints? first four drives: 32 plays, 240 yards, four TD?s.
? Game went over the total in the 2nd quarter.
? Saints are 10-15 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite, 2-4 TY.

Broncos 38, Texans 24:
? Broncos ran 63 plays; only eight were on 3rd down.
? Rookie QB Lock was 22-27/309 passing, with three TD?s.
? Broncos are now 5-4 in last nine games, after an 0-4 start.

? Texans beat New England LW; gambling is hard.
? Houston is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 1-5 TY
? Denver led 31-3 at halftime; this score makes no sense..

Ravens 24, Bills 17:
? Lamar Jackson is now 17-3 as an NFL starter,
? Baltimore won its last nine games, covering six of last seven.
? Both teams went well under their rushing averages (118-104, Balt).

? Buffalo averaged only 2.3 yards/pass attempt.
? Teams had a combined 42 net passing yards in first half.
? Teams combined to convert only 7-28 third down plays.

Packers 20, Redskins 15:
? Redskins? first four drives: 16 plays, 32 yards, 2 first downs, 0 points.
? Redskins? last six drives: 44 plays, 246 yards, 16 first downs, 15 points.
? Washington is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog, 4-2 TY.

? Green Bay is 24-15-2 ATS in last 41 games as a home favorite, 4-3 TY
? Four of Packers? last five games stayed under the total.
? Green Bay had 12-yard advantage in field position.

Browns 27, Bengals 19:
? Cincy outgained Browns 451-333, running 20 more plays than Cleveland.
? Bengals scored one TD, three FG?s on five trips to red zone.
? Under is 6-1-1 in Cincinnati?s last eight games

? Cleveland won four of its last five games.
? Browns had six plays of 20+ yards; four of them came on 3rd down.
? Cleveland?s first TD came on a pick-6 when they trailed 3-0.

Falcons 40, Panthers 20:
? Guess it wasn?t Ron Rivera?s fault.
? Carolina turned ball over four times (-4), converted 3-10 on 3rd down.
? Panthers lost field position battle by 18 yards.

? Ryan broke the game open with a 93-yard TD pass to Zaccheaus in 3rd quarter, making score 27-10.
? Falcons in 2nd half: 6 drives: 30 plays, 207 yards, three TD?s, two FG?s.
? Koo kicked four FG?s, recovered a fumble on a kickoff.

Vikings 20, Lions 7:
? Predictable result for rookie QB making first NFL road start.
? Detroit lost its sixth game in a row.
? Under Patricia, Lions are 6-4-1 ATS as a road underdog, 2-2-1 TY.

? Vikings sacked Blough five times, held Detroit to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
? Minnesota converted 23 of last 40 third down plays.
? Under Zimmer, Vikings are 25-9-2 ATS as a home favorite, 3-2-1 TY.

Jets 22, Dolphins 21:
? Miami covered seven of its last nine games.
? Dolphins had ball ten times, kicked seven FG?s, missed an 8th try.
? 15 points on six trips to the red zone is no bueno.

? Ficken kicked a 44-yard FG at the gun for the win.
? Darnold drove Jets 51-49 yards for FG?s on Jets? last two drives.
? Jets won four of last five games overall.

Buccaneers 38, Colts 35:
? Colts lost five of last six games after a 5-2 start.
? All six Indy road games have been decided by 6 or fewer points.
? Not too many NFL teams lose with a +3 turnover ratio.

? Wnston threw for 456 yards, four TD?s, three INT?s.
? Buccaneers have turned ball over 32 times in 13 games (-10).
? This game was over the total at halftime; over is 10-3 in Bucs? games.

Chargers 45, Jaguars 10:
? Chargers had ball nine times, scored six touchdowns.
? LA averaged 11.3 yards/pass attempt.
? Chargers ran 58 plays, only 8 of them on third down.

? Jaguars lost last five games, allowing 34.8 ppg, with all five losses by 17+ points.
? It is fair to say that Jacksonville has packed it in for the season.
? Jaguars lost for 7th time in last eight meetings with Chargers.

Chiefs 23, Patriots 16:
? Chiefs won four of last five games, clinch AFC West title.
? Under Reid, Kansas City is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog
? Penalty yards: Chiefs 136, Patriots 25

? Patriots lost 2nd game in row, converting 2-12 on third down.
? New England is #2-seed in AFC; they?re 0-3 vs #1-3-4 seeds.
? Under is 9-4 in Patriot games this season.

Steelers 23, Cardinals 17:
? Steelers won seven of last eight games after a 1-4 start.
? Pittsburgh is 3-0 with 3rd-string QB Hodges starting.
? Under is 9-2 in Steelers? last ten games.

? Arizona lost its last six games, but covered six of last nine.
? Cardinals scored only 10 points in three trips to red zone.
? Total yardage was 275-236 Steelers; only five plays of 20+ yards.

Titans 42, Raiders 21:
? Tennessee won six of its last seven games after a 2-4 start.
? Titans converted 8-11 third down plays, gained 552 yards on 59 plays.
? Tannehill averaged 14.5 yards/pass attempt? his resurgence is one of the big stories in the league this season.

? Raiders in first half: 4 drives: 29 plays, 194 yards, 12 first downs, 21 points.
? Raiders in second half: 6 drives: 31 plays, 163 yards, 10 first downs, 0 points.
? Oakland gave up a defensive TD for third week in a row.

Rams 28, Seahawks 12:
? This was Seattle?s first road loss this season.
? Seahawks? only TD scored n a pick-6 early in third quarter.
? 49ers move back on top of NFC West standings.

? Rams outgained Seattle 455-308; their best performance in long time.
? Seven of Rams? last eight games went under the total.
? Gurley/Higbee/Woods are first trio of teammates to all gain 100+ yards from scrimmage in consecutive weeks since the 2000 Vikings.
 

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College Playoff field of four all set
December 8, 2019
By The Associated Press


Defending national champions. Undefeated and owners of a 28-game winning streak, longest in the nation.

The Clemson Tigers are one heck of a No. 3 seed.

Clemson will play second-seeded Ohio State in prime time Dec. 28 in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, looking to make it three national championship in four seasons.

''We're just excited to be in it,'' said Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, who has spent much of the last month playing up how his team was being disrespected by being relegated to third in the rankings after starting the season No. 1 in the polls.

The other semifinal matches No. 1 LSU and No. 4 Oklahoma.

The selection committee revealed the pairings Sunday and the final four was no surprise. The only mystery involved which would be the top seed among three undefeated teams that have been hammering opponents most of the season. The 13-member committee went with Southeastern Conference champion LSU. The Tigers (13-0) will face the Big 12 champion Sooners (12-1) in the Peach Bowl, four hours before the Fiesta Bowl kicks off.

''Anytime, anywhere, anybody, we ready to play,'' LSU coach Ed Orgeron said on ESPN.

Clemson opened as a two-point favorite against the Buckeyes. LSU was an 11 1/2-point favorite against the Sooners.

LSU used a convincing victory against Georgia on Saturday to move up. Ohio State (13-0) had been atop the committee's rankings last week, but the Buckeyes slipped to No. 2 after coming from behind against Wisconsin to win the Big Ten title.

The national championship game is Jan. 13 in New Orleans. The No. 1 seed has yet to win the CFP in five years.

The Tigers and Buckeyes flip-flopped at No. 1 a couple of times throughout the committee's six weeks of ranking teams and chairman Rob Mullens said the debate was similar each week.

''Every weekend one of the them has done something to move above the other,'' said Mullens, the athletic director at Oregon. ''LSU's performance against a No. 4 ranked Georgia compelled the committee to put them just ahead of Ohio State.''

The rest of the New Year's Six bowls were:

- Oregon vs. Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.

- Georgia vs. Baylor in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

- Florida vs. Virginia in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30.

- Memphis vs. Penn State in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 28.


The final four fell into place thanks to the favorites winning their conference championship games and Utah losing the Pac-12 title game to Oregon. The Utes had been No. 5. That left three undefeated Power Five champions, a fourth with one loss and nobody else with a legitimate case to claim a spot.

The intrigue was about the top seed, knowing Clemson was likely locked into No. 3. The Tigers have been mauling opponents for the last two months, but the ACC has not provided Clemson any top-flight competition. Ohio State has five victories against CFP-ranked teams, including Wisconsin twice. LSU has four, all of which were ranked in the top 13. Clemson's only game against a team that made the committee's final rankings was its 62-17 victory Saturday against Virginia.

Still, drawing Clemson, which hasn't lost since the 2017 playoff semifinals against Alabama, rather than an Oklahoma team with five victories by a touchdown or less certainly seems like a tougher task for the Buckeyes. Clemson (13-0) is making its fifth straight playoff appearance, tying Alabama for the most.

LSU is in the playoff for the first time, the only newbie in the field. The Tigers will likely bring the Heisman Trophy winner with them. Quarterback Joe Burrow capped a record-breaking season by throwing four more touchdown passes against Georgia in the SEC championship.

Ohio State is making its third playoff appearance and first since 2016 after just missing out the previous two seasons. The Buckeyes won the first playoff championship in 2014. Their last appearance came after the 2016 season, when they were shut out by Clemson in the semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl. That was all under coach Urban Meyer. Now Ryan Day leads the Buckeyes, and in his first season as Meyer's successor the Buckeyes have won each of their games by double-digit margins.

`'Do I feel we should have been the 1 seed? Yeah. But LSU's done an unbelievable job and what Joe (Burrow) has done,'' Day said. ''At the end of the day, you have to go beat the best to win a national championship, and Clemson certainly is that.''

The Tigers are 3-0 all-time against Ohio State, all in the postseason. The Buckeyes enter the playoff with a 19-game winning streak, second only to Clemson's streak.

''We've played them a couple times, and this is easily the most talented and most complete Ohio State team that we've played,'' Swinney said.

Oklahoma is in the playoff for the fourth time, but has yet to win a game. This will be the third consecutive year the Sooners face an SEC team.

Oklahoma and LSU have split two previous meetings: The Sooners won the 1950 Sugar Bowl and the Tigers won the BCS championship game at the Sugar Bowl in 2004.

Former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts is back in the playoff for the fourth straight year, this time with the Sooners after going three times with the Crimson Tide. Hurts follows Heisman winners Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray as quarterback transfers to find success in coach Lincoln Riley's offense.

LSU and Ohio State are also led by transfer quarterbacks. Burrow started his career at Ohio State before switching schools in 2018. Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields was at Georgia last season.

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence led the Tigers to a national championship as a freshman last season, the first time since 1985 that happened.
 

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12 of 26 first-year coaches are taking their teams to bowls
December 8, 2019
By The Associated Press


Twelve of the 26 first-year coaches in the Football Bowl Subdivision are taking their teams to bowls.

Ohio State's Ryan Day is among six first-year coaches at bowl-bound Power Five schools. His unbeaten Buckeyes are the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff and will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Military Bowl will pit first-year coaches in Temple's Rod Carey and North Carolina's Mack Brown. Brown took off five years from coaching after leaving Texas in 2013. He's in his second go-round at Carolina, where he coached from 1988-97.

Chris Klieman, who jumped from FCS powerhouse North Dakota State to Kansas State, is heading to the Liberty Bowl to face Navy. Louisville's Scott Satterfield, who won bowls his last four years at Appalachian State, leads Louisville into the Music City Bowl against Mississippi State.

Manny Diaz will take Miami to the Independence Bowl to play Louisiana Tech.

Other first-year coaches heading to bowls are Central Michigan's Jim McElwain, Utah State's Gary Andersen, Liberty's Hugh Freeze, Charlotte's Will Healy, Western Kentucky's Tyson Helton and Appalachian State's Eli Drinkwitz.

SORRY, ROCKETS

Toledo is not headed to a bowl despite going 6-6 this season.

With 79 teams bowl eligible and 78 slots available, there was going to be a team left out. The Rockets lost their final three games of the regular season and will have their streak of nine straight winning seasons snapped.

The last time Toledo missed a bowl was when the Rockets went 7-5 in 2013 and still stayed home.

The Mid-American Conference did put seven other teams in bowls this season, matching the league's best mark. The MAC also had seven bowl invitations in 2012 and 2015.

NO ROOM AT THE INN

The College Football Playoff selection committee ranked more Group of Five schools than ever before - but the major bowls only had room for one of them.

Five schools from outside the Power Five showed up in the final playoff rankings. That's the most in a final poll since the system began six years ago.

But a spot in the New Year's Six was assured to only one of them and it went to Memphis (12-1, No. 17 CFP), which will play Penn State in the Cotton Bowl after beating Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference title game.

For the others, they'll have to be content with their lower-level bowl berths.

Mountain West winner Boise State (12-1, No. 19) will face Washington and former coach Chris Petersen in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Sun Belt champion Appalachian State (12-1, No. 20) drew UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. Cincinnati (10-3, No. 21) plays Boston College in the Birmingham Bowl. And Navy (9-2, No. 23) takes on Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.

In each of the past four seasons, only three Group of Five schools appeared in the committee's final rankings.

LIBERTY, CHARLOTTE FIRST-TIMERS

Liberty and Charlotte will be making their first bowl appearances.

Liberty completed its two-year Football Bowl Subdivision reclassification process over the summer and qualified for a bowl in its first year of eligibility under first-year coach Hugh Freeze. The Flames (7-5) will play Georgia Southern (7-5) in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 21.

Freeze took over the Liberty job last December after being out of college football for two seasons. He resigned from Mississippi in July 2017 for unbecoming personal conduct and NCAA rules violations.

Charlotte (7-5) went on a school-record, five-game win streak to end the regular season and will play Buffalo (7-5) in the Bahamas Bowl on Dec. 20. The 49ers also have a first-year coach in Will Healy.

Healy was hired at Charlotte after he turned around Austin Peay in the Football Championship Subdivision.

THOSE TRANSFER QBS

Three of the four starting quarterbacks in the College Football Playoff are transfers.

Former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts is back in the playoff for the fourth straight year, this time with Oklahoma, after going three times with the Crimson Tide. Hurts follows Heisman winners Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray as quarterback transfers to find success in coach Lincoln Riley's offense.

LSU, the Sooners' opponent in the Peach Bowl, is led by Heisman Trophy front-runner Joe Burrow. He started his career at Ohio State before transferring to LSU in 2018.

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields was at Georgia last season. The Buckeyes play in the Fiesta Bowl against Clemson, whose quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, led the Tigers to a national championship as a freshman last season.

PONY UP

SMU is getting a bowl trip to Florida after its first 10-win season in 35 years in what will be a true road game.

The Mustangs are playing the Boca Raton Bowl on Dec. 21 against Conference USA champion Florida Atlantic in the Owls' home stadium.

''I don't think any of us will care too much about that. That's certainly not going to affect the way we prepare,'' coach Sonny Dykes said. ''Sometimes that's the way things go when it comes to bowl games. It's a little bit unusual, but it's not going to have an impact on us.''

Despite the best season for the Mustangs (10-2) since the program resumed play following the NCAA death penalty when the school didn't field a team in 1987 or 1988, there had been some projections that they would play in the Frisco Bowl - just more than 25 miles from campus - for the second time in three years.

SMU instead gets to go to the Sunshine State to play against another 10-win team.

''We really wanted to make sure that the players felt like we were in a game that would be exciting for them, and be deemed a reward for a great season,'' athletic director Rick Hart said. ''Candidly, this is where they wanted to go. It worked out great in that way, because bowl games should be all about the student-athletes and their experience.''
 

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Tuesday?s 6-pack

? Eagles 23, Giants 17 OT? Philly is tied for 1st in NFC East.

? Iowa 72, Minnesota 52? Hawkeyes even Big 14 record at 1-1.

? QB Jake Bentley will be a grad transfer at Utah next year.

? Raptors 93, Bulls 92? Pascal Siakam scored 22 points.

? Thunder 104, Jazz 90? Dennis Schroder scored 27 points off bench.

? Celtics 110, Cavaliers 88? Cavaliers lost seven straight games, 13 of 14.

Quote of the Day:
?I don?t think we?ve seen anything like him. But it also seems that, on a week in and week out basis, there?s a lot of quarterbacks that really are true dual threats that can throw the ball (and) that can run the ball. And also, I think when you have that dual threat and you have all these fly motions, it creates a lot of one-on-one matchups.?
Troy Polamalu, talking about Lamar Jackson

Tuesday?s quiz
Of the 32 NFL stadiums, which two have hosted a World Series game?

Monday?s quiz
Steph Curry played his college basketball at Davidson.

Sunday?s quiz
The first SEC football championship game was played at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL

*********************

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but?..

13) Spreads for the college football Final Four, December 28:
LSU -12 vs Oklahoma, @ New Orleans
Clemson -1.5 vs Ohio State, @ Glendale, AZ

12) An equipment container that contained some of the Kansas City Chiefs? shoulder pads, helmets and footballs was not unloaded Saturday and instead ?accidentally? found its way to Newark, NJ- the container held the bags of roughly 35 Chiefs players. The container was rushed back to Foxboro; it arrived at the ballpark roughly an hour before gametime Sujday.

If the Chiefs didn?t have the equipment by the time the game started they would have to forfeit the game, which is hard to believe, seeing how it was the featured 4:25 game on CBS.

In a semi-related subject, a Patriots videographer was in Cleveland Sunday, in the press box, filming the Bengals sideline. Guess who New England plays this week?

11) Stephen Strasburg gets 7 years, $245M to stay in Washington; if you?re the agent working on a 3% fee, that $7.35M for him. Not a bad day.

10) ESPN college basketball analyst Jimmy Dykes is different than most analysts; Dykes was a coach and he calls players out like a coach as he watches the game.

Saturday afternoon, a kid on Arizona shied away from diving for a loose ball that led to a Baylor basket; 99% of analysts don?t bother to mention it, but Dykes pointed out that Baylor got an easy layup because their kid out-hustled the Arizona guy for the loose ball. Good analysis.

9) Bad beat of the weekend; Over/under in Pacer-Knick game Saturday night was 209; game was 104-100 with 5:05 left, but wound up 104-103. How do two teams combine for only three points in 5:05 at the end of a close game?

8) Knicks? interim coach Mike Miller is a different guy than the Mike Miller who played in the NBA; that Mike Miller is one of Penny Hardaway?s assistants at Memphis.

7) NFL stuff:
? Bucs? QB Jameis Winston has a broken thumb.
? 49ers? CB Richard Sherman has a Grade 2 hamstring strain.

6) Ole Miss hired Lane Kiffin as its new football coach; here is his resume:
1997-98- assistant coach, Fresno State
1999- Colorado State, grad assistant
2000- Jacksonville Jaguars, quality control coach
2001-06? USC, assistant coach
2007-08- Oakland Raiders, head coach
2009- Tennessee Vols, head coach
2010-13- USC, head coach
2014-16- Alabama, offensive coordinator
2017-19- Florida Atlantic, head coach

Kiffin is only 44; he could write a hell of a book someday.

5) ESPN?s play-by-play guy Sean McDonough sounds happier doing college games than he did when he was working Monday Night Football.

4) Dodgers? P Rich Hill pitched the last month of the 2019 season with a detached UCL in his left arm. He had a procedure to fix the arm and should be ready to go sometime in June.

3) During Rams-Seattle game Sunday nite, NBC ran a cool pic of Seattle LB Bobby Wagner blocking out Kawhi Leonard during a high school basketball game in San Diego in 2008. Both guys have obviously done very well since then.

2) College football coaching stuff:
? Arkansas hired Georgia?s offensive line coach Sam Pittman as head coach.
? Missouri hired Eli Drinkwitz away from Appalachian State to be its coach.
? South Florida is hiring Clemson co-OC Jeff Scott as its new coach.

1) Nothing says its the holiday season more than Buffalo-Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl on December 20. Have to load up on egg nog to watch that one.
 

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Hot & Not Playoff - Part 1
December 9, 2019
By Matt Blunt


Who's Hot and Who's Not

Collge Football Playoff Edition ? Part 1


With last week's piece dissecting the conference championship games touched on a few things, the actual selections it suggested ? Hawaii against the spread (ATS) and Wisconsin (ATS) ? ended up splitting the board. It was a week that saw favorites and underdogs go dead even at 5-5 ATS in the championship games, and while personally I was on the wrong side of that break even split between favorites and 'dogs, it was interesting to see that it did shake out with a .500 record.

And thanks to those results, we've now got the CFB Playoff for this year lined up and it should be a great one no matter how it shakes out. It is interesting to note that there is quite an extended rest between the semi finals and the title game, so keep that in mind when the time comes, as one of LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma will be your 2019 champion.

Speaking of which, this week's piece aims to help us find which one of those four programs will end up hoisting the trophy, and because of it there will be a change of format. Hopefully it's easy to follow and you can find value in any or all of the information presented, and I do have one thing to mention in that regard.

If you do find value in any of this information and want to share it with the masses out there in the ?time vaccum? known as social media, how about giving a little credit where it's due. It doesn't have to be to me personally, but at least to this site ? VegasInsider.com ? because they are the ones willing to put this stuff out there and up on their platform. I've heard it's happened multiple times in the past this year, and while I'm all for sharing of knowledge to help us all become better bettors, there is always a better way to do so in terms of giving credit when it's due. And if you don't find value in the information, that's fine too.

Which does lead me to one of the most popular historical perspective to get bandied about over the next month and it is one that's got very little value from my perspective too. That is the fact that no #1 or #3 seed in the CFB Playoff is something I'm sure you'll hear plenty of in the coming weeks and maybe there is something to that. That would be a negative for LSU and Clemson this year, but I believe the other historical perspectives I'm about to present are much more actionable and they'll be broken down by category in the format change.

Let's get to it, as I've split this piece in two so as to cover everything. And remember, there is always a first time for everything.

*All numbers are pulled from regular season data only (including conference championship games) for the CFB Playoff teams that particular season

ATS Records
2019: LSU: 8-5; Ohio State: 9-4; Clemson: 10-3; Oklahoma: 5-8 ATS

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 8-5; Clemson: 7-6; Notre Dame: 6-4-2; Oklahoma: 5-7-1
2017: Clemson: 8-4-1; Oklahoma: 8-5; Georgia: 9-4; Alabama: 5-7
2016: Alabama: 9-4; Clemson: 6-7; Ohio State: 6-6; Washington: 7-6
2015: Clemson: 6-7; Alabama: 7-6; Michigan State: 5-7-1; Oklahoma: 9-3
2014: Alabama: 5-8; Oregon: 9-4; Florida State: 3-10; Ohio State: 8-5

Point #1: In the history of the CFB Playoff, every National Champion had at least 5 ATS losses

Positive for: LSU and Oklahoma
Negative for: Ohio State and Clemson

Call it a statistical anomaly or whatever you want, but the best money earner in the market for the season hasn't equated to national titles in the history of the playoff. In the five years we've had it, the best regular season ATS record was pulled off by the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-5 ATS) while since then it's been records of 7-6, 6-7, 5-7, and 7-6 ATS that have come out on top.

Point #2: The team with the best regular season ATS record has been the runner-up in each of the last three years, and four of the five seasons overall

Negative for: Clemson

No need to spend too much time on this point, as it suggests the defending champs from Clemson will be the ones to get past the Buckeyes in the semis but fall short in the final with their 10-3 ATS record this year. Clemson opened up as a slight favorite as the #3 seed and you know that won't be taken too lightly by the market. But we are simply trying to find the eventual champion, so in terms of this piece, this is actually considered a negative for Dabo Swinney's program. Just another piece of ammunition for his absurd rhetoric train though.

3rd Down Conversion Rate Percentage ? Offense
2019: LSU: 49.67; Ohio State: 56.97; Clemson: 47.30; Oklahoma: 49.24

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 52.55; Clemson: 43.95; Notre Dame: 44.32; Oklahoma: 51.18
2017: Clemson: 45.99; Oklahoma: 43.06; Georgia: 45.70; Alabama: 40.43
2016: Alabama: 48.80; Clemson: 51.09; Ohio State: 48.65; Washington: 44.83
2015: Clemson: 46.70; Alabama: 35.43; Michigan State: 50.53; Oklahoma: 44.58
2014: Alabama: 52.91; Oregon: 49.70; Florida State: 46.05; Ohio State: 51.52

Point #1: In each of the last two CFB Playoffs, and three of the last four, the team with the WORST 3rd down conversion rate percentage has won the title

Positive for: Clemson

We go from a negative to a positive here for the Clemson Tigers, as they are the ?worst? of the bunch in staying on the field offensively and keeping drives going on 3rd down. Recent history has treated these teams kindly as the Tigers found themselves in this same spot a year ago at 43.95%, and knocked off the best team (Alabama was 52.55% in 2018) in the dominating fashion in last year's title game.

Point #2: The team with the best 3rd down percentage has only won the national title once ? Clemson in 2016

Negative for: Ohio State

Another brief and simple point here, that doesn't exactly work out in Ohio State's favor, as their 56.97% rate is actually the best we've ever seen from any team in the CFB Playoff era. Whether or not that translates into this point being one that gets tossed to the curb this year remains to be seen, as that conversion rate is superb, but also one that's going to be seemingly hard to keep up with the level of competition the Buckeyes will have to go through.
3rd Down Conversion Rate Percentage ? Defense
2019: LSU: 29.65; Ohio State: 28.65; Clemson: 30.60; Oklahoma: 31.61

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 30.34; Clemson: 27.60; Notre Dame: 37.82; Oklahoma: 45.18
2017: Clemson: 28.19; Oklahoma: 38.67; Georgia: 32.95; Alabama: 32.92
2016: Alabama: 30.53; Clemson: 30.17; Ohio State: 30.77; Washington: 31.11
2015: Clemson: 24.86; Alabama: 28.88; Michigan State: 35.06; Oklahoma: 40.00
2014: Alabama: 36.90; Oregon: 41.97; Florida State: 40.98; Ohio State: 36.90

Point #1: Every National Champion in the CFB Playoff era has been either the best, or 2nd best in Opponent 3rd down conversion rate percentage

Positive for: LSU and Ohio State

The old adage that ?defense wins championships? tends to be true in the CFB playoff, as teams that are the best of the best in this category tend to find themselves with holding a trophy at the end of it. Considering the only other year we had two of the four teams with a sub-30% opponent 3rd down rate was back in 2015, and they both made it to the title game - Clemson and Alabama squaring off in their first epic championship meeting, that bodes well for both LSU and Ohio State to have a shot at the trophy this year.

In fact, only one team with a sub-30% rate failed to make the title game ? Clemson in 2017 ? so based on this history, it's hard not to expect a #1 vs #2 matchup in the Final. Those two programs met 12 years ago in the title game when it was also held in New Orleans with LSU winning as the #2 seed, and Buckeyes fans would love to return the favor.

Point #2: The team with the better number in this category when we reach the title game has won four of five national championships ? only outlier was in 2015

Positive for: Yet to be determined

This is yet to be determined obviously, but with about two weeks between the semi-finals and the title game, this is something to definitely keep in mind. 2015 was the only outlier but it was also the only year where both finalists were in that sub-30% range which is to say that both were lights out in that regard and Alabama just happened to be a bit better on that day.
Heisman Trophy Winners
2019: Yet to be determined

2018: Kyler Murray
2017: Baker Mayfield
2016: Lamar Jackson
2015: Derrick Henry
2014: Marcus Mariota

Point #1: No Heisman winning QB has gone on to win the National Title, and playoff teams with the Heisman winner are 1-for-4 in terms of winning it all.

Positive for: Ohio State (potentially)
Negative for: LSU (likely)

The rest of the statistical categories will come in Part 2 of this piece, but for those that don't mind ending Part 1 on a bit of fluff, I thought I'd put this in.

Considering that LSU QB Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year currently, LSU fans may prefer that not to be the case. But as I said at the opening, there is a first time for everything, and maybe this will be that year that Burrow and LSU break that trend.

That being said, if a non-QB wins the trophy ? say DE Chase Young for Ohio State ? it's actually turned out to be a positive for that team in terms of their title hopes. RB Derrick Henry was the only Heisman winner to win a title that same year (2015), and should Young pull out the award, Buckeyes fans will be happy to hear it.
 

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Hot & Not Playoff - Part 2
December 9, 2019
By Matt Blunt


Who's Hot and Who's Not

Collge Football Playoff Edition ? Part 2


And so it continues, as there are more statistical categories that I believe have been historically relevant in producing a CFB Playoff winner, and if you have already gone through Part 1 (insert link here) of my breakdown, there is still more to come. No need to labor with the introduction because of it, so let's keep on plugging away:

*All numbers are pulled from regular season data only (including conference championship games) for the CFB Playoff teams that particular season

Takeaways Per Game
2019: LSU: 1.7; Ohio State: 1.9; Clemson: 2.2; Oklahoma: 0.7

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 1.7; Clemson: 1.5; Notre Dame: 1.7; Oklahoma: 0.8
2017: Clemson: 1.4; Oklahoma: 1.3; Georgia: 1.4; Alabama: 1.5
2016: Alabama: 1.8; Clemson: 1.8; Ohio State: 2.1; Washington: 2.4
2015: Clemson: 1.9; Alabama: 1.8; Michigan State: 2.2; Oklahoma: 2.2
2014: Alabama: 1.5; Oregon: 2.0; Florida State: 2.0; Ohio State: 2.2

Point #1: No team with a Takeaways per game number of 2.0 or greater has made the Title game in the last four years

Negative for: Clemson

More fuel for the fire of Dabo Swinney's rhetoric train here, as on the surface being the best at taking the ball away from your opponent is always a positive. But that hasn't been the case recently in the CFB Playoff as it appears some 'regression to the mean' shows up at the worst time for these teams. There have only been four teams of the past 16 to even have a shot at overcoming this fact, so sample size isn't exactly great, but these are the facts and recent history isn't on Clemson's side here. Swinney does like speaking about ?the first time since...? so here's another thing you can have at in that regard.

Point #2: No team with a Takeaways per game number below 1.4 has ever made the Title Game

Negative for: Oklahoma

This far through the piece and the Oklahoma Sooners have yet to really show up on the positive or negative side of anything so far, but they break that goose egg with a negative trend here. Sure, there could be some positive regression to the mean for Oklahoma in the semi-finals, and they'll need it as hefty 'dogs vs LSU.

Winning the turnover battle by multiple possessions may be the only way the Sooners get by a powerhouse like LSU later this month, and it's really only been this same Oklahoma Sooners program that qualifies in this particular role. But history does have a way of repeating itself, and given that the Sooners have forced a grand total of one turnover in their two semi-finals defeats the past two years, turning over LSU this season won't be easy.

Giveaways Per Game
2019: LSU: 0.9; Ohio State: 1.1; Clemson: 1.2; Oklahoma: 1.5

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 0.9; Clemson: 1.3; Notre Dame: 1.2; Oklahoma: 1.0
2017: Clemson: 1.2; Oklahoma: 0.9; Georgia: 1.0; Alabama: 0.5
2016: Alabama: 1.5; Clemson: 2.0; Ohio State: 0.8; Washington: 0.9
2015: Clemson: 1.9; Alabama: 1.4; Michigan State: 0.9; Oklahoma: 1.3
2014: Alabama: 1.4; Oregon: 0.6; Florida State: 2.2; Ohio State: 1.5

Point #1: Team with the worst Giveaway per game margin has made the Title game in three of the past four years

Positive for: Oklahoma

Ended the last section with the first negative for Oklahoma, so how about a ?positive? for the Sooners here. They come into the 2019 CFB Playoff with the most giveaways per game on average of the four teams, and oddly enough that's done well for ?teams? in the past.

I put teams in quotations because it's actually been just one program who's accounted for all the success these teams that are loosest with the football have had in the Playoff ? Clemson. So there you go Dabo Swinney, a positive for your 2019 team crew in that you enter the playoff for the first time you've been involved in it without the worst giveaway per game margin (or tied) of everyone involved.

But it's hard to think that this is nothing more then dumb luck at times, especially with Clemson accounting for all of those Title game appearances. The Tigers have been a dominant force in the college football landscape for years now, and they have shown they can overcome their mistakes time and time again. Not so sure Oklahoma is as capable to do so, but a historical positive is a historical positive right?

Point #2: Three out of the five Playoffs have seen the team with the lowest Giveaway margin make it to the Title game; However, only one team with a sub-1.0 margin has won it all ? 2017 Alabama

Positive for: LSU
Negative for: LSU

Based on that historical fact, LSU fans may be able to have a Happy New Year, but will feel already done with 2020 by the middle of January.

Protecting the football is always one of the best paths for success for any team, and there is nobody better at it in this year's playoff then the LSU Tigers. But whether or not it becomes the pressure of the moment in the Title game, along with being up against another phenomenal team, going the distance rarely seems to happen for the squads that rank the best here.

The 2017 Alabama team was the only one to take it the distance in that regard, and if you remember that 2017 title game, there were some extenuating circumstances. For one, the Tide went up against a familiar conference foe in Georgia, one that was beating them for essentially the entire game before crumbling late.

A LSU foe in this year's title game could end up falling to a similar fate, but Ohio State and Clemson both have guys on their roster who have felt the CFB Playoff pressure before. What that means (if anything) is hard to quantify, but it never hurts to have that knowledge floating around in the back of your mind.

Penalties Per Game
2019: LSU: 6.2; Ohio State: 5.6; Clemson: 5.5; Oklahoma: 6.8

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 5.5; Clemson: 5.2; Notre Dame: 5.0; Oklahoma: 6.1
2017: Clemson: 5.1; Oklahoma: 6.2; Georgia: 6.7; Alabama: 5.5
2016: Alabama: 5.4; Clemson: 6.7; Ohio State: 6.2; Washington: 5.4
2015: Clemson: 5.8; Alabama: 6.6; Michigan State: 5.3; Oklahoma: 6.2
2014: Alabama: 5.0; Oregon: 8.1; Florida State: 6.6; Ohio State: 5.8

Point #1: The team with the fewest penalties per game has NEVER won the national title

Negative for: Clemson

Again, we've got past results that seem counter-intuitive to what you would believe would happen, as staying disciplined on the football field is always key to success. But this is another case where regression to the mean could be playing out here, especially on such a high profile stage, as these CFB Playoff teams that enter the tournament with the fewest amount of penalties per game just can't translate it into success.

In fact, where there has been a clear cut leader in that regard ? every year but 2016 when Alabama and Washington were tied ? those teams haven't even made it through to the title game. Turns out that's another negative for Dabo Swinney's Clemson team this year, as I know now that I for sure won't be getting any Christmas cards from him or fans of his program this year.

Penalty Yards Per Game
2019: LSU: 59.5; Ohio State: 53.5; Clemson: 43.6; Oklahoma: 74.1

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 48.5; Clemson: 45.6; Notre Dame: 45.5; Oklahoma: 61.5
2017: Clemson: 45.8; Oklahoma: 61.8; Georgia: 58.8; Alabama: 46.6
2016: Alabama: 41.8; Clemson: 59.2; Ohio State: 48.8; Washington: 46.1
2015: Clemson: 47.7; Alabama: 59.6; Michigan State: 43.6; Oklahoma: 61.2
2014: Alabama: 39.7; Oregon: 74.9; Florida State: 51.2; Ohio State: 50.5

Point #1: The team with the fewest penalty yards per game has NEVER won the national title

Negative for: Clemson

This statement was close to ending last year, but it's another relative anomaly when you really think about it. But again, it probably goes back to the whole regression to the mean idea, and that on the biggest stage, those little things said teams may have gotten away with more often then not every Saturday become magnified and exposed.

I'm sure Dabo Swinney and his wonderful use of various rhetoric techniques will be working over the officials every chance he gets, but the history doesn't lie here. After all, he always argues that nobody pays enough attention to the ACC and maybe he's right. Maybe that includes the officials as well who have arguably let his team get away with more then they should throughout the year.

Point #2: EVERY national champion has had between 45.6 and 59.6 penalty yards per game

Positive for: LSU and Ohio State
Negative for: Clemson and Oklahoma

Probably nothing more then a statistical anomaly or looking too much into the numbers, but when that range has been perfect in determining the eventual national champion, I'm not sure you can ignore it. Considering that this is a positive for the top two teams in this year' playoff, it's got to be considered.

Final Tally
Positives For: LSU (4); Ohio State (3); Clemson (1); Oklahoma (2)
Negatives For: LSU (1, with 1 more likely); Ohio State (2); Clemson (6); Oklahoma (2)

I know that there are plenty of ways to pick apart this piece, especially if you like a particular team already.

Knocks against it are sample size, last year's teams have nothing to do with this year's, and even you could view it as confirmation bias in some cases. But regarding the latter, I would like to say that I did not know what to expect to find when backtracking these numbers, so I don't believe there was anything I was looking to confirm going into it. Again, if you find this information valuable great, if not, that's just as good.

But after this trek back through history, the picture does seem somewhat clear in how to bet this year's playoff at least in terms of the futures market. After all, the straight up winner in all 15 CFB Playoff games we've had in history are 12-3 ATS. So pick the outright winner correct and 80% of the time the spread won't matter. Especially when the three point spread losses have come by 3.5 points (2018 semi between Alabama and Oklahoma), 0.5 points (2017 title game between Alabama and Georgia), and 1.5 points (2015 title game between Alabama and Clemson).

The two teams with more historical positives then negatives from these pieces are #1 LSU and #2 Ohio State. To me, those will be your two combatants in the national title game, and with futures prices in the +150 and +225 respectively, you take both and as long as that's the matchup, you'll come out ahead.

And given that if you've followed along with my ?Upset Alerts? pieces all year long, you'll know how long my stubborn ass thought it was best to go against Ohio State week after week, there is some pain in saying this, but it is the Ohio State Buckeyes who are my pick to win it all.

Ohio State outperformed market expectations all year long ? much to my chagrin ? and getting bumped from #1 to #2 in the final rankings - for really doing nothing wrong other then having a slow start in the Big 10 Championship - has to be all the extra motivation they really need to make a title run.

Hopefully they ride that wave of motivation and many of the historical angles I've laid out to a title this year, beating the LSU Tigers 35-31 to win it all.

2019 National Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
 

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Wednesday?s 6-pack

Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:

? Houston @ Tennessee (-3)

? Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)

? Cleveland (-2.5) @ Arizona

? Rams (-1) @ Dallas

? Minnesota (-2.5) @ LA Chargers

? Indianapolis @ New Orleans (-9)

Quote of the Day:
?[Our recent play] is sickening. [Changes are] tough, but it?s a necessary evil. Right now, we?ve got to play better, and we?re going to play better, and there will be changes. There will be changes. What happened [Sunday] will not happen again. I can?t allow it to happen.?
Jon Gruden

Wednesday?s quiz
Which NFL team did Steve Spurrier coach for two seasons?

Tuesday?s quiz
Of the 32 NFL stadiums, LA Coliseum and Oakland Coliseum have hosted a World Series.

Monday?s quiz
Steph Curry played his college basketball at Davidson.


Wednesday?s List of 13: Mid-week musings??.

13) I get it that all retired baseball players speak glowingly of the late Marvin Miller, who was the head of the players? union; he made them all very rich. If Miller made me rich, I?d want him to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, too.

But as an Oakland A?s fan, I had no great fondness for Miller, who helped institute a system that made the A?s a 2nd-rate franchise, financially. Stephen Strasburg making $35M a year is a bit much; not really sure Miller deserves to be in the Hall of Fame- did he make the game better? Did star players being multi-millionaires improve the game?

I?d rather see Dr Frank Jobe get in the Hall of Fame; surgeons who perform Tommy John surgery have done a hell of a lot more to help baseball than a guy who helped make all the players millionaires.

12) Speaking of Marvin MIller, Bronx Bombers signed Gerrit Cole to a 9-year, $324M contract late Tuesday night. Cole is 29 years old, so this might be his last contract.

Last three years, Cole started 33-32-33 regular season games; if he does that next season, it works out to $1,090,909.09 per start.

11) 2020 Bronx Bombers:
? Gerrit Cole, $36M
? Giancarlo Stanton, $26M
? Masahiro Tanaka, $23M
? Aroldis Chapman $17.2M

That adds up to $101.5M??.for four guys.

Oakland A?s made the playoffs the last two years; their ENTIRE payroll last year?

$92,178,333

10) Excellent article on actionnetwork.com about how college bowl betting lines are made; it ain?t easy, especially when you have to make them quickly, with matchups coming out early Sunday afternoon- lines were posted roughly four hours later.

9) NHL leaders in going over in first period:
Colorado 23-7, Los Angeles 21-10, Carolina 20-10

NHL leaders in going under in first period:
Calgary 9-23, Dallas 12-19, Jets/Wild/Penguins 13-17

8) Baseball stuff:
? Giants signed P Kevin Gausman to a 1-year deal.
? Phillies signed SS Didi Gregorius
? Angels dumped some salary, trading SS Zack Cozart for cash and a prospect.

7) Random question: Are people allowed to meet at a vegan restaurant?
(Think about it, maybe you?ll chuckle later)

6) Every player at the Outback Bowl will get a gift suite that includes a Fossil watch; $125 Amazon gift card; Jostens ring; Outback Steakhouse gift card; hat.

All the bowls have gift packages like that.

5) Funny how Golden State Warriors seem to have disbanded for a year; Draymond Green still plays most of he time, the uniforms are the same, and Steve Kerr still coaches, but with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson not playing, this is a totally different team, one that will be in the NBA Draft Lottery, maybe even getting the first pick.

Would Golden State draft LaMelo Ball, the youngest of the three Ball brothers? Cole Anthony? James Wiseman, the big kid from Memphis?

4) Major League Baseball will relocate its annual amateur draft to Omaha to try and increase interest; Omaha is where the College World Series is played every year. I?m guessing some of the college coaches in the CWS won?t be thrilled with the potential distractions.

3) Of course the Miami Marlins move their outfield fences in the year after they trade Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna. Makes perfect sense.

2) Texas Tech 70, Louisville 57? Cardinals are already the 4th #1 team in country to lose this season and it is only December 11. There aren?t any great teams this year.

1) ESPN drained every last drop out of the Eli Manning story Monday night; he played really well in the first half but the Giants were shut out in the 2nd half as Manning made what will probably be his last-ever appearance on MNF.

Now America will have to wait a couple years for the next Manning; Eli?s nephew Arch is a 9th-grader at Newman HS in New Orleans, where he already is the starting QB.
 

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303ARMY -304 NAVY
ARMY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs good passing QB's (>8 PYA) in the last 3 seasons.




NCAAF
Dunkel


Army @ Navy

Game 303-304
December 14, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Army
80.034
Navy
87.581
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Navy
by 10
41
Dunkel Pick:
Army
(+10); Under





NCAAF
Long Sheet


Saturday, December 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARMY (5 - 7) vs. NAVY (9 - 2) - 12/14/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 16-38 ATS (-25.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 164-120 ATS (+32.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 76-42 ATS (+29.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 81-46 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 42-19 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 2-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Army/Navy


Underdogs covered 7 of last 8 Army-Navy games, with Army winning last three SU; average total in last five meetings: 31.4. Navy won 7 of its last 8 games; their only losses TY were to Notre Dame (52-20), Memphis (35-23). Middies have run ball for 378+ yards in 6 of their last 7 games; they covered all five games as a favorite TY. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games- Navy allowed 40.3 ppg in last three games, and won two of them. Army lost six of its last eight games after a 3-1 start were the only loss was in OT at Michigan. Cadets are 12-9-2 ATS in last 23 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY.




NCAAF

Army/Navy


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Navy Midshipmen
Navy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games
Navy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 5 games
Navy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Army
Navy is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing Army
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 5 games when playing Army
Army Black Knights
Army is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Army is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Army is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Army is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Navy
Army is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy


*************************


Trends - Army vs. Navy
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 14
Matchup
Skinny
Edge

ARMY vs. NAVY (at Philadelphia)...Major ?under? series with 13 meetings in a row going that way. Navy had won 14 in a row SU in series until 2016, when Army began current 3-game win streak. Note underdog side has also covered in last five and 8 of last 10 in series. Army 6-2 last 8 as dog. Mids on 11-3-1 spread uptick since late 2018 and are 6-1 as chalk in 2019.
?Under,? based on series ?totals? trends.
 

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201BUFFALO -202 CHARLOTTE
BUFFALO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

203KENT ST -204 UTAH ST
UTAH ST is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.

207C MICHIGAN -208 SAN DIEGO ST
C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in the current season.

211SMU -212 FLA ATLANTIC
SMU is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after 2 conference games in the last 3 seasons.

215WASHINGTON -216 BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after going under the total over the last 2 seasons.

217UAB -218 APPALACHIAN ST
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in the current season.

219MARSHALL -220 UCF
UCF is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing <=14 pts. over the last 2 seasons.

221BYU -222 HAWAII
HAWAII is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

223MIAMI -224 LOUISIANA TECH
MIAMI is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.

225PITTSBURGH -226 E MICHIGAN
PITTSBURGH is 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

227N CAROLINA -228 TEMPLE
N CAROLINA is 12-33 ATS (-24.3 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

229MICHIGAN ST -230 WAKE FOREST
MICHIGAN ST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

231OKLAHOMA ST -232 TEXAS A&M
TEXAS A&M is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

233USC -234 IOWA
IOWA is 60-30 ATS (27 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

235WASHINGTON ST -236 AIR FORCE
AIR FORCE is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

237IOWA ST -238 NOTRE DAME
NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

239MEMPHIS -240 PENN ST
PENN ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

241OKLAHOMA -242 LSU
LSU is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game in the current season.

243CLEMSON -244 OHIO ST
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

243CLEMSON -244 OHIO ST
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

245W MICHIGAN -246 W KENTUCKY
W KENTUCKY is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) in road games vs. good offenses (>425 TYG) since 1992.

249ILLINOIS -250 CALIFORNIA
ILLINOIS are 27-13 Under (12.7 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

251VIRGINIA -252 FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

255FLORIDA ST -256 ARIZONA ST
FLORIDA ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when the total is 49.5-56 in the last 3 seasons.

261TEXAS -262 UTAH
TEXAS are 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

263MICHIGAN -264 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games since 1992.

267WISCONSIN -268 OREGON
OREGON is 20-3 ATS (16.7 Units) in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

269BAYLOR -270 GEORGIA
GEORGIA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after an ATS loss over the last 2 seasons.

269BAYLOR -270 GEORGIA
BAYLOR is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

271BOSTON COLLEGE -272 CINCINNATI
BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5-10 over the last 2 seasons.

275OHIO U -276 NEVADA
NEVADA is 43-26 ATS (14.4 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

277TULANE -278 SOUTHERN MISS
TULANE is 35-65 ATS (-36.5 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.

279MIAMI OHIO -280 LA LAFAYETTE
MIAMI OHIO is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

281MISSISSIPPI ST -282 LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.

285KENTUCKY -286 VIRGINIA TECH
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

287TENNESSEE -288 INDIANA
TENNESSEE is 14-1 ATS (12.9 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
33,804
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NCAAF
Long Sheet


Friday, December 20

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BUFFALO (7 - 5) vs. CHARLOTTE (7 - 5) - 12/20/2019, 2:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BUFFALO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (6 - 6) vs. UTAH ST (7 - 5) - 12/20/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 21

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C MICHIGAN (8 - 5) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 2:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LIBERTY (7 - 5) vs. GA SOUTHERN (7 - 5) - 12/21/2019, 2:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LIBERTY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SMU (10 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (10 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 3:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLA INTERNATIONAL (6 - 6) vs. ARKANSAS ST (7 - 5) - 12/21/2019, 5:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (12 - 1) - 12/21/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 154-112 ATS (+30.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 154-112 ATS (+30.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 88-55 ATS (+27.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-68 ATS (+21.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UAB (9 - 4) vs. APPALACHIAN ST (12 - 1) - 12/21/2019, 9:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
UAB is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 23

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MARSHALL (8 - 4) vs. UCF (9 - 3) - 12/23/2019, 2:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.
MARSHALL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, December 24

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BYU (7 - 5) at HAWAII (9 - 5) - 12/24/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
HAWAII is 90-119 ATS (-40.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
HAWAII is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 26

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MIAMI (6 - 6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (9 - 3) - 12/26/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) vs. E MICHIGAN (6 - 6) - 12/26/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N CAROLINA (6 - 6) vs. TEMPLE (8 - 4) - 12/27/2019, 12:00:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (6 - 6) vs. WAKE FOREST (8 - 4) - 12/27/2019, 3:20:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WAKE FOREST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OKLAHOMA ST (8 - 4) vs. TEXAS A&M (7 - 5) - 12/27/2019, 6:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC (8 - 4) vs. IOWA (9 - 3) - 12/27/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
USC is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON ST (6 - 6) vs. AIR FORCE (10 - 2) - 12/27/2019, 10:15:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 28

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IOWA ST (7 - 5) vs. NOTRE DAME (10 - 2) - 12/28/2019, 12:00:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (12 - 1) vs. PENN ST (10 - 2) - 12/28/2019, 12:00:00 P
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA (12 - 1) vs. LSU (13 - 0) - 12/28/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEMSON (13 - 0) vs. OHIO ST (13 - 0) - 12/28/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-151 ATS (+32.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-151 ATS (+32.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 180-136 ATS (+30.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OHIO ST is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEMSON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 30

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W MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. W KENTUCKY (8 - 4) - 12/30/2019, 12:30:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ILLINOIS (6 - 6) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 5) - 12/30/2019, 4:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 140-177 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 140-177 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA (9 - 4) vs. FLORIDA (10 - 2) - 12/30/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
FLORIDA is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSISSIPPI ST (6 - 6) vs. LOUISVILLE (7 - 5) - 12/30/2019, 4:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, December 31

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FLORIDA ST (6 - 6) vs. ARIZONA ST (7 - 5) - 12/31/2019, 2:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS ST (8 - 4) vs. NAVY (9 - 2) - 12/31/2019, 3:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NAVY is 81-46 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 178-141 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 178-141 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA ST (7 - 5) vs. WYOMING (7 - 5) - 12/31/2019, 4:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (7 - 5) vs. UTAH (11 - 2) - 12/31/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) on a neutral field where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1992.
UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
UTAH is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
UTAH is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
UTAH is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENTUCKY (7 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (8 - 4) - 12/31/2019, 12:00:00 P
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, January 1

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MICHIGAN (9 - 3) vs. ALABAMA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2020, 1:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (10 - 2) vs. AUBURN (9 - 3) - 1/1/2020, 1:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (10 - 3) vs. OREGON (11 - 2) - 1/1/2020, 5:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 48-24 ATS (+21.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OREGON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
OREGON is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WISCONSIN is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
WISCONSIN is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BAYLOR (11 - 2) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2020, 8:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, January 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON COLLEGE (6 - 6) vs. CINCINNATI (10 - 3) - 1/2/2020, 3:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (7 - 5) vs. INDIANA (8 - 4) - 1/2/2020, 7:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANA is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO U (6 - 6) vs. NEVADA (7 - 5) - 1/3/2020, 3:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 4

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TULANE (6 - 6) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (7 - 5) - 1/4/2020, 11:30:00 A
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, January 6

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MIAMI OHIO (8 - 5) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (10 - 3) - 1/6/2020, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
33,804
65
48
NCAAF

Bowl Season


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 20

Buffalo @ Charlotte

Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Utah State @ Kent State
Utah State
Utah State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games
Kent State
Kent State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kent State's last 6 games

this report will update....
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
33,804
65
48
Trends - Army vs. Navy
December 10, 2019
By Bruce Marshall



SATURDAY, DEC. 14

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARMY vs. NAVY (at Philadelphia)
...Major ?under? series with 13 meetings in a row going that way. Navy had won 14 in a row SU in series until 2016, when Army began current 3-game win streak. Note underdog side has also covered in last five and 8 of last 10 in series. Army 6-2 last 8 as dog. Mids on 11-3-1 spread uptick since late 2018 and are 6-1 as chalk in 2019.
?Under,? based on series ?totals? trends.
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
33,804
65
48
Army vs. Navy - Best Bets
December 11, 2019
By Matt Blunt


Army vs. Navy
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 15 (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Navy -10.5, Tota. 40.5

The college football regular season is in the books, conference champions have been crowned, and the playoff and bowl games have all been laid out. Meaning the only thing left is the annual Army/Navy game that acts as the unofficial bridge from regular season to bowl season play in the sport.

While the annual tradition on the field for this game showcases how special those involved in either of these programs are on a daily basis, from a betting market perspective, there is an annual tradition involved too. That is, when the Army/Navy game arrives, take the 'under' and already spend your winnings like a Christmas bonus. The 'under' has cashed in 13 straight years in this matchup, and to the shock of no one, this year's total saw nothing but 'under' action out of the gate.

For bettors that love to play streaks and live by the notion that you 100% have to ride streaks until they buck you because you can win multiple units riding said streak and only lose one when it halts, the 'under' in the Army/Navy game is always their glowing example of that case study.

So the question remains, will that streak stay in tact and give the masses another early holiday bonus, or will Scrooge finally show up and let both of these teams put some points up on the scoreboard?
CFB Odds: Navy (-10.5); Total set at 40.5
Before I go further into the total talk here, the side needs to be addressed. Remember, it had quite a streak as well with Navy winning 14 straight meetings from 2002 through 2015. The Black Knights finally squashed that back in 2016 with a 21-17 win and have now rung that up to three straight entering this year's game.

Now, seeing Army as a big underdog in this game is something bettors are quite used to as well, but for a team that saw an absurd amount of support in the preseason season win total market at 'over' 10 wins, you've got to wonder if similar support will show up this week. I'm not sure how you could expect any Service Academy team to win double digits entering the year ? their undersized lines (OL and DL) because of their off-field duties are always going to be prone to getting worn down and beat up on by prototypical football teams ? and that's not even considering a lack of execution angle that's bound to pop up from time to time in games. That's not to say Service Academy teams aren't capable of winning 10+ games, they definitely are, (Navy will hit 10 wins with a win this week), but to 'expect' it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. To each his own though.

I bring that up because this Army team was expected to be much better then their current 5-7 SU record coming into this game. And with no Bowl game after this one, what's the best way for Army to put a positive cap on an otherwise disappointing campaign? Beating Navy of course.

A fourth straight win in this rivalry would be only the second time Army's program has accomplished that feat since before 1950 (they won five in a row from 1992-1996), an no matter how the entire season has gone for either program, winning this game ultimately makes their year. Given that Navy severely outperformed their preseason projections ? they came into the year with a win total at 5.5 ? taking the points with an Army team that's got plenty to prove would be the main way I'd look against the spread.

But that also means that you are going against a senior class at Navy that's yet to experience a win in this rivalry in their careers ? yes, I know Navy could win and Army could cover ? and given that the Midshipmen have been the ones to be better and more consistent all year long, stepping in front of that can be considered a tricky proposition. Teasing Navy down (or Army up for that matter) is always an option as well, but that means you need something to tease it to. Which brings me to the total.

There isn't a whole lot of need to go into all the main reasons why the 'under' has been so successful, as they are points that are beaten down to exhaustion and there is little need to get latched on to that pipe. If you are going the teaser route, teasing it 'under' the number definitely makes a whole lot of sense, but at the same time, that's going to be the overwhelmingly popular way to play this game, and that can be fundamentally problematic in handicapping routines/behaviors if you aren't at least considerate of the highly popular side.

Instead, let's see if there is a potential case to be made for the 'over'.

Well for one, the fact that Navy outperformed and Army underperformed relative to their preseason projections could actually work in the favor of an 'over' here.

From the Navy perspective, they've found a method that works for them this season and has produced favorable results. They put up at least 20 points in every single one of their games this year, 34+ points in nine of their 11 games, and only had one game finish with a combined score less than 52 points. That was a 35-3 win against USF, and with plenty of 'under' money likely yet to hit the board for this game (it's only Wednesday), we could see this total close at 38 or lower too. Even Navy's game against Air Force saw both teams put up at least 25 points, and if you are looking for a comparable, that's got to be the first place to look.

From Army's perspective, this is their last shot in 2019 to prove that there was at least some truth in that 10-win projection they had coming into the year, and it's not like Navy's defense can't be scored on. Army finished the year by putting up 31+ points in three straight games, and while their tilt with Air Force ended in a 17-13 loss, Army had 214 passing yards ? yes 214 passing yards ? in defeat. Which leads into my second point...

An 'over' in college football generally relies on needing the underdog to put up points and carry their weight. Given that Army averaged their most pass attempts per game (10.6) this year and most completions per game (5.1) since 2013 is relatively important. That's because the 2013 Army/Navy game was the last time this contest saw 41 or more points. It landed right on the nose of 41 (34-7), and Navy did the majority of the scoring that day, but Army throwing the ball more does lend itself to getting more points. Either through those pass attempts connecting ? and likely in a big way ? or more clock stoppages to actually slow the game down and give both sides maybe an extra possession or two relative to what we are used to seeing from them in recent years.

Obviously that logic will feel like a stretch for some, as it's always going to be easier to look at 13 straight 'unders' and just blindly ride it, and who knows, maybe we do see it cash for a 14th straight time. But eventually this 'under' run will end, and with both sides having a winning record to the 'over' this year ? Army is 6-5-1 O/U while Navy is 7-4 O/U ? and both being plenty comfortable in games where they need 30+ points to win, I'm going to look for that streak to be broken this season.

There is always going to be inherent value in looking at the high side of the total in this game because of the long 'under' run it's been on, and with rain in the forecast, maybe we get a few critical turnovers to get some quick points up on the board to help the cause.

It still doesn't hurt to wait as I doubt this number goes much higher, if at all, as it's likely to keep dropping once more recreational money hits the board with this being the only game in town. But I've got to publish my thoughts now, at 40.5, I'm plenty comfortable going against the grain and taking the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over
 
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