CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !
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Mahomes, Chiefs hold off Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City
November 18, 2019
MEXICO CITY (AP) Daniel Sorensen picked off Philip Rivers??? fourth interception at the goal line with 18 seconds to play, and the Kansas City Chiefs stayed on top of the AFC West with a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night at Azteca Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes passed for 182 yards and hit Travis Kelce for his only touchdown, while LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams rushed for touchdowns as the Chiefs (7-4) hung on to win the fourth regular-season NFL game played in Mexico despite a few problems with Azteca???s grass field and a one-sided first half favoring the Chargers (4-7), who racked up 312 yards without a touchdown.
After throwing his second interception of the season in the first half, Mahomes led two sharp scoring drives in the third quarter with help from Kelce, who caught seven passes for 92 yards. The Chiefs held Los Angeles to eight points in the second half, and Sorensen grabbed Rivers??? underthrown pass to Austin Ekeler at the goal line to secure the Chiefs??? 10th win over Los Angeles in 11 meetings.
Rivers passed for 353 yards during his first four-interception game since November 2016 for the Chargers, whose playoff hopes are nearly dead after five losses in seven games. Keenan Allen caught his first TD pass since Week 3 in the third quarter, but the Chargers had three inept drives in the scoreless fourth quarter.
On the Bolts??? last gasp, Mike Williams made a spectacular 50-yard catch with 44 seconds to play. Los Angeles reached the Kansas City 14 before Rivers??? final mistake. Rivers, who turns 38 next month, has thrown seven interceptions in the Chargers??? last two games.
One year after the NFL called off a game at Azteca Stadium on short notice because of poor field conditions, these teams played an entertaining game in the 7,200-foot elevation and on the Azteca grass, which yielded several significant divots from sharp stops or changes of direction.
The Rams and Chiefs were scheduled to play here last season, but severe damage to the turf field compelled the NFL to relocate the game to Los Angeles on six days??? notice.
Azteca removed its hybrid turf and installed natural grass this year, and the field had been untouched since Club América???s last home soccer game Nov. 2. The grounds crew came onto the field at halftime and during timeouts in the second half to attend to the worst spots.
The NFL and the stadium still threw an impressive party for 76,252 of Mexico???s football-loving fans, who packed the arena and mostly supported the Chargers, the nominal home team.
Although the teams spent less than 48 hours in Mexico???s capital city, the NFL has deep roots among fans around the country. Commissioner Roger Goodell met Monday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador while the league and the federal government are considering extending the Mexico game series beyond its current deal through 2021.
The game was particularly special to Chargers cornerback Michael Davis, the son of a U.S. immigrant from Mexico City. Davis got to play in front of his grandparents for the first time.
But the Chargers trailed 10-9 at halftime despite outgaining Kansas City 312-109 and making five drives into Chiefs territory. Rivers threw two interceptions and Michael Badgley missed a 40-yard field goal attempt while making three others, wasting a defensive effort that included Rayshawn Jenkins picking off Mahomes.
Tyreek Hill left the field with a right hamstring injury after the Chiefs??? second offensive series, although it didn???t appear to be caused by the turf. The speedster watched the second half from the sideline.
Tyrann Mathieu???s 35-yard interception return set up McCoy???s 6-yard TD run for the game???s first touchdown in the second quarter. After Williams scored on the Chiefs??? opening drive of the second half, Mahomes hit Kelce with a picture-perfect 23-yard TD throw on the next drive.
Rivers and Allen answered with a TD connection late in the third quarter and a 2-point conversion. The two-time Pro Bowl receiver improbably hadn???t caught a TD pass since Week 3.
INJURIES
Chiefs: Along with Hill, RB Damien Williams was lost to a rib injury and safety Jordan Lucas went out with a shoulder injury. ... Center Austin Reiter was evaluated for a concussion but returned.
Chargers: LT Russell Okung missed his second straight game with a groin injury. ... Allen went down hard on the final play of a drive in the second quarter but returned.
UP NEXT
Chiefs: A bye week followed by an important visit from the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, Dec. 1.
Chargers: After a bye week, a trip to face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 1.
November 18, 2019
MEXICO CITY (AP) Daniel Sorensen picked off Philip Rivers??? fourth interception at the goal line with 18 seconds to play, and the Kansas City Chiefs stayed on top of the AFC West with a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night at Azteca Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes passed for 182 yards and hit Travis Kelce for his only touchdown, while LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams rushed for touchdowns as the Chiefs (7-4) hung on to win the fourth regular-season NFL game played in Mexico despite a few problems with Azteca???s grass field and a one-sided first half favoring the Chargers (4-7), who racked up 312 yards without a touchdown.
After throwing his second interception of the season in the first half, Mahomes led two sharp scoring drives in the third quarter with help from Kelce, who caught seven passes for 92 yards. The Chiefs held Los Angeles to eight points in the second half, and Sorensen grabbed Rivers??? underthrown pass to Austin Ekeler at the goal line to secure the Chiefs??? 10th win over Los Angeles in 11 meetings.
Rivers passed for 353 yards during his first four-interception game since November 2016 for the Chargers, whose playoff hopes are nearly dead after five losses in seven games. Keenan Allen caught his first TD pass since Week 3 in the third quarter, but the Chargers had three inept drives in the scoreless fourth quarter.
On the Bolts??? last gasp, Mike Williams made a spectacular 50-yard catch with 44 seconds to play. Los Angeles reached the Kansas City 14 before Rivers??? final mistake. Rivers, who turns 38 next month, has thrown seven interceptions in the Chargers??? last two games.
One year after the NFL called off a game at Azteca Stadium on short notice because of poor field conditions, these teams played an entertaining game in the 7,200-foot elevation and on the Azteca grass, which yielded several significant divots from sharp stops or changes of direction.
The Rams and Chiefs were scheduled to play here last season, but severe damage to the turf field compelled the NFL to relocate the game to Los Angeles on six days??? notice.
Azteca removed its hybrid turf and installed natural grass this year, and the field had been untouched since Club América???s last home soccer game Nov. 2. The grounds crew came onto the field at halftime and during timeouts in the second half to attend to the worst spots.
The NFL and the stadium still threw an impressive party for 76,252 of Mexico???s football-loving fans, who packed the arena and mostly supported the Chargers, the nominal home team.
Although the teams spent less than 48 hours in Mexico???s capital city, the NFL has deep roots among fans around the country. Commissioner Roger Goodell met Monday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador while the league and the federal government are considering extending the Mexico game series beyond its current deal through 2021.
The game was particularly special to Chargers cornerback Michael Davis, the son of a U.S. immigrant from Mexico City. Davis got to play in front of his grandparents for the first time.
But the Chargers trailed 10-9 at halftime despite outgaining Kansas City 312-109 and making five drives into Chiefs territory. Rivers threw two interceptions and Michael Badgley missed a 40-yard field goal attempt while making three others, wasting a defensive effort that included Rayshawn Jenkins picking off Mahomes.
Tyreek Hill left the field with a right hamstring injury after the Chiefs??? second offensive series, although it didn???t appear to be caused by the turf. The speedster watched the second half from the sideline.
Tyrann Mathieu???s 35-yard interception return set up McCoy???s 6-yard TD run for the game???s first touchdown in the second quarter. After Williams scored on the Chiefs??? opening drive of the second half, Mahomes hit Kelce with a picture-perfect 23-yard TD throw on the next drive.
Rivers and Allen answered with a TD connection late in the third quarter and a 2-point conversion. The two-time Pro Bowl receiver improbably hadn???t caught a TD pass since Week 3.
INJURIES
Chiefs: Along with Hill, RB Damien Williams was lost to a rib injury and safety Jordan Lucas went out with a shoulder injury. ... Center Austin Reiter was evaluated for a concussion but returned.
Chargers: LT Russell Okung missed his second straight game with a groin injury. ... Allen went down hard on the final play of a drive in the second quarter but returned.
UP NEXT
Chiefs: A bye week followed by an important visit from the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, Dec. 1.
Chargers: After a bye week, a trip to face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 1.
WEEK 12
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans
Sunday, November 24, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Denver Broncos Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM New York Giants Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders New York Jets
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Washington Redskins
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles
4:05 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans
4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys New England Patriots
8:20 PM Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers
Monday, November 25, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Baltimore Ravens Los Angeles Rams
*********************************
NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................30-38-1.........44.11%..........-64.50
*****************************
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................12 - 17..........-33.50............13 - 18..............-44.00...........-77.50
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans
Sunday, November 24, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Denver Broncos Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM New York Giants Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders New York Jets
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Washington Redskins
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles
4:05 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans
4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys New England Patriots
8:20 PM Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers
Monday, November 25, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Baltimore Ravens Los Angeles Rams
*********************************
NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................30-38-1.........44.11%..........-64.50
*****************************
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................12 - 17..........-33.50............13 - 18..............-44.00...........-77.50
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
Bettors strike back in Week 11
November 18, 2019
By Micah Roberts
Perhaps the tide has finally turned for bettors in NFL action after losing most of the first 10 weeks of the season. Sunday?s Week 11 saw favorites go 7-5 against-the-spread with only two underdogs winning outright, but it was the popular favorites that all got there together to produce some formidable parlay risk the books couldn?t escape.
William Hill?s Nick Bogdanovich described their Sunday results as ?horrible? while South Point?s Chris Andrews described it as ?terrible? if that helps give an indication of how the books did.
?It?s going to be a losing day,? conceded Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game. ?The Patriots were bad with several other games.?
The ongoing trend with bettors during the Tom Brady era is to always bet Bill Belichick to come up with a great game plan to win following a loss and it held true again as the Patriots won 17-10 at Philadelphia, a game that ran from Patriots -3.5 to -5 by kickoff.
?We?re stuck to the day,? said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. ?We really needed the Lions and Eagles and didn?t get either of those. The Eagles looked good enough to win, but (Carson) Wentz didn?t have his best game and his receivers dropped a few passes in key moments.?
Part of the reason the Lions didn?t get the cover or push was because of Lions coach Matt Patricia?s choice to go for a two-point conversion after a touchdown late in the game when down by 8-points. He was looking to get to a 6-point deficit and then, I guess, win the game with a TD on their next possession. The Lions did not succeed and the final score was 35-27, a game where most of the wagers were bet on the Cowboys at -7.
?I just don?t understand the move,? DiTommaso said. ?And I?m not just saying it because a push would have been better for us, but the 2-point attempt in that situation just doesn?t make any sense.?
The favorites that killed the books included the Cowboys, Patriots, Saints (-5 in 34-17 win at Tampa Bay), and Ravens (-4.5 in 41-7 win vs Texans). That?s a four-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds at most shops (CG books use true odds) is an escalation of odds that books couldn?t make up through any straight bets. And then there were the teasers that cashed on the big favorites that didn?t cover as well.
?We really needed one of those 10-point favorites not cover on the teasers,? Bogdanovich said.
Crossing over big key numbers is always the key for teaser bettors and there were three of them Sunday. None of them covered, but they all covered on the teaser and all the underdogs covered as well. The Vikings dropped from -10.5 to -9.5 in their 27-23 home win against the Broncos and the Raiders won 17-10 at home against the winless Bengals while the 49ers won 36-26 at home against the Cardinals where many books closed -9.5 after opening -11.5. It didn?t matter, any side you played in a teaser in those games covered.
The ending of the 49ers game had me baffled regarding the NFL?s integrity by not reviewing the final sequence of the final play of the game that resulted in a 49ers touchdown. While the NFL wants to somehow monetize sports betting after dissociating itself from gambling forever, they failed in a game where the spread was in play. After Larry Fitzgerald threw a pass backward to one of his teammates, it was not caught and became a live fumble. The 49ers jumped on it and a Cardinals player touched him. It should have been the end of the game, 30-26. But then the ball was lodged loose in the final scrum and 49er players slapped the ball towards their end zone and one player even kicked the ball giving it more velocity and a 49ers player scooped it up for ran it in for the TD.
?How come no one is talking about the last score in the Niners game,? Bogdanovich said. ?The guy was clearly down.
He was down, but rather than review it, the referees ran off the field and the 49ers even didn?t kick the extra point leaving it at 10. There?s no conspiracy theory here, it?s more about incompetence by the league and officials. They cowardly ran away basically saying ?no big deal, the 49ers were winning before and they still won.?
But scores matter. Integrity matters. Bettors who took +9.5 late or +10 with the Cardinals after watching them do what they wanted offensively all afternoon got hosed in this game. The officials didn?t review the play, because the integrity of the score apparently doesn?t matter to them.
More than incompetence, I just think it was lazy. In this era of integrity. Could the NFL please get some full-time officials focused on everything, including the betting numbers. No more blind eyes about the numbers, because if all these leagues keep talking about integrity then the number should be a starting point and make it fair officiating for all. The late bettors on the Cardinals Sunday didn?t get any piece of integrity or justice given to them in Week 11.
The Sunday NFL loss, coupled with a brutal Saturday loss in college football, made it the worst weekend of the football season so far. It was nice to see the public stay strong with their favorite teams and finally cash and the ensuing weeks could something similar because at least twice a year there is a tidal wave loss in the books.
Week 11 might not be described a tidal wave loss, but it's certainly the best Sunday bettors have had against the books in 11 weeks of NFL action.
November 18, 2019
By Micah Roberts
Perhaps the tide has finally turned for bettors in NFL action after losing most of the first 10 weeks of the season. Sunday?s Week 11 saw favorites go 7-5 against-the-spread with only two underdogs winning outright, but it was the popular favorites that all got there together to produce some formidable parlay risk the books couldn?t escape.
William Hill?s Nick Bogdanovich described their Sunday results as ?horrible? while South Point?s Chris Andrews described it as ?terrible? if that helps give an indication of how the books did.
?It?s going to be a losing day,? conceded Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game. ?The Patriots were bad with several other games.?
The ongoing trend with bettors during the Tom Brady era is to always bet Bill Belichick to come up with a great game plan to win following a loss and it held true again as the Patriots won 17-10 at Philadelphia, a game that ran from Patriots -3.5 to -5 by kickoff.
?We?re stuck to the day,? said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. ?We really needed the Lions and Eagles and didn?t get either of those. The Eagles looked good enough to win, but (Carson) Wentz didn?t have his best game and his receivers dropped a few passes in key moments.?
Part of the reason the Lions didn?t get the cover or push was because of Lions coach Matt Patricia?s choice to go for a two-point conversion after a touchdown late in the game when down by 8-points. He was looking to get to a 6-point deficit and then, I guess, win the game with a TD on their next possession. The Lions did not succeed and the final score was 35-27, a game where most of the wagers were bet on the Cowboys at -7.
?I just don?t understand the move,? DiTommaso said. ?And I?m not just saying it because a push would have been better for us, but the 2-point attempt in that situation just doesn?t make any sense.?
The favorites that killed the books included the Cowboys, Patriots, Saints (-5 in 34-17 win at Tampa Bay), and Ravens (-4.5 in 41-7 win vs Texans). That?s a four-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds at most shops (CG books use true odds) is an escalation of odds that books couldn?t make up through any straight bets. And then there were the teasers that cashed on the big favorites that didn?t cover as well.
?We really needed one of those 10-point favorites not cover on the teasers,? Bogdanovich said.
Crossing over big key numbers is always the key for teaser bettors and there were three of them Sunday. None of them covered, but they all covered on the teaser and all the underdogs covered as well. The Vikings dropped from -10.5 to -9.5 in their 27-23 home win against the Broncos and the Raiders won 17-10 at home against the winless Bengals while the 49ers won 36-26 at home against the Cardinals where many books closed -9.5 after opening -11.5. It didn?t matter, any side you played in a teaser in those games covered.
The ending of the 49ers game had me baffled regarding the NFL?s integrity by not reviewing the final sequence of the final play of the game that resulted in a 49ers touchdown. While the NFL wants to somehow monetize sports betting after dissociating itself from gambling forever, they failed in a game where the spread was in play. After Larry Fitzgerald threw a pass backward to one of his teammates, it was not caught and became a live fumble. The 49ers jumped on it and a Cardinals player touched him. It should have been the end of the game, 30-26. But then the ball was lodged loose in the final scrum and 49er players slapped the ball towards their end zone and one player even kicked the ball giving it more velocity and a 49ers player scooped it up for ran it in for the TD.
?How come no one is talking about the last score in the Niners game,? Bogdanovich said. ?The guy was clearly down.
He was down, but rather than review it, the referees ran off the field and the 49ers even didn?t kick the extra point leaving it at 10. There?s no conspiracy theory here, it?s more about incompetence by the league and officials. They cowardly ran away basically saying ?no big deal, the 49ers were winning before and they still won.?
But scores matter. Integrity matters. Bettors who took +9.5 late or +10 with the Cardinals after watching them do what they wanted offensively all afternoon got hosed in this game. The officials didn?t review the play, because the integrity of the score apparently doesn?t matter to them.
More than incompetence, I just think it was lazy. In this era of integrity. Could the NFL please get some full-time officials focused on everything, including the betting numbers. No more blind eyes about the numbers, because if all these leagues keep talking about integrity then the number should be a starting point and make it fair officiating for all. The late bettors on the Cardinals Sunday didn?t get any piece of integrity or justice given to them in Week 11.
The Sunday NFL loss, coupled with a brutal Saturday loss in college football, made it the worst weekend of the football season so far. It was nice to see the public stay strong with their favorite teams and finally cash and the ensuing weeks could something similar because at least twice a year there is a tidal wave loss in the books.
Week 11 might not be described a tidal wave loss, but it's certainly the best Sunday bettors have had against the books in 11 weeks of NFL action.
Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
National Football League Week 11 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 8-4-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 100-57-1
Against the Spread 68-86-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 85-72-1
Against the Spread 67-87-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 80-77-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17
The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7
The People Are Champs
-- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.
Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.
The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.
Total Recall
-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.
As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.
The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.
There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.
After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.
Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.
In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.
In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.
-- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.
Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles
-- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.
-- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.
-- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.
-- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.
-- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
National Football League Week 11 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 8-4-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 100-57-1
Against the Spread 68-86-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 85-72-1
Against the Spread 67-87-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 80-77-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17
The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7
The People Are Champs
-- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.
Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.
The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.
Total Recall
-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.
As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.
The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.
There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.
After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.
Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.
In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.
In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.
-- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.
Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles
-- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.
-- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.
-- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.
-- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.
-- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.
109INDIANAPOLIS -110 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 16-2 ATS (13.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
251MIAMI -252 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 26-55 ATS (-34.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
253DENVER -254 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 46-77 ATS (-38.7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
255PITTSBURGH -256 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after going under the total in the current season.
257NY GIANTS -258 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 53-27 ATS (23.3 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
259OAKLAND -260 NY JETS
OAKLAND is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
261CAROLINA -262 NEW ORLEANS
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 - 13 in the last 2 seasons.
263TAMPA BAY -264 ATLANTA
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight overs in the current season.
265DETROIT -266 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
267JACKSONVILLE -268 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points since 1992.
269DALLAS -270 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
271GREEN BAY -272 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
273SEATTLE -274 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.
275BALTIMORE -276 LA RAMS
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games in the 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.
*******************************
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 12
Thursday, November 21
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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 4) - 11/21/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 109-81 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 24
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MIAMI (2 - 8) at CLEVELAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DENVER (3 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 3) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at CINCINNATI (0 - 10) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (6 - 4) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-83 ATS (-50.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 120-90 ATS (+21.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) at ATLANTA (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (3 - 6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 9) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 146-183 ATS (-55.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 119-157 ATS (-53.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (6 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 198-149 ATS (+34.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-89 ATS (+31.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-56 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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GREEN BAY (8 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 198-142 ATS (+41.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (8 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 25
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BALTIMORE (8 - 2) at LA RAMS (6 - 4) - 11/25/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 73-106 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 71-104 ATS (-43.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS are 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
**************************************
NFL
Week 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 21
Houston Texans
Houston is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Indianapolis is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Houston
Sunday, November 24
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Giants's last 14 games when playing Chicago
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Buffalo is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 19 games
Denver is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games on the road
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games
Miami is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games at home
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Washington is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Detroit is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
New York Jets
NY Jets is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
NY Jets is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Jets's last 12 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Oakland
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games
Oakland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Oakland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 18 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games on the road
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Tennessee Titans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
New England Patriots
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing New England
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-13-3 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 24 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Monday, November 25
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing LA Rams
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
HOUSTON is 16-2 ATS (13.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
251MIAMI -252 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 26-55 ATS (-34.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
253DENVER -254 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 46-77 ATS (-38.7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
255PITTSBURGH -256 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after going under the total in the current season.
257NY GIANTS -258 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 53-27 ATS (23.3 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
259OAKLAND -260 NY JETS
OAKLAND is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
261CAROLINA -262 NEW ORLEANS
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 - 13 in the last 2 seasons.
263TAMPA BAY -264 ATLANTA
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight overs in the current season.
265DETROIT -266 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
267JACKSONVILLE -268 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points since 1992.
269DALLAS -270 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
271GREEN BAY -272 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
273SEATTLE -274 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.
275BALTIMORE -276 LA RAMS
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games in the 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.
*******************************
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 12
Thursday, November 21
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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 4) - 11/21/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 109-81 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 24
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (2 - 8) at CLEVELAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (3 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 3) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at CINCINNATI (0 - 10) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (6 - 4) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-83 ATS (-50.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 120-90 ATS (+21.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) at ATLANTA (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (3 - 6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 9) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 146-183 ATS (-55.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 119-157 ATS (-53.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DALLAS (6 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 198-149 ATS (+34.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-89 ATS (+31.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-56 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GREEN BAY (8 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 198-142 ATS (+41.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEATTLE (8 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (8 - 2) at LA RAMS (6 - 4) - 11/25/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 73-106 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 71-104 ATS (-43.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS are 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
**************************************
NFL
Week 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 21
Houston Texans
Houston is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Indianapolis is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Houston
Sunday, November 24
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Giants's last 14 games when playing Chicago
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Buffalo is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 19 games
Denver is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games on the road
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games
Miami is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games at home
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Washington is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Detroit is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
New York Jets
NY Jets is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
NY Jets is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Jets's last 12 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Oakland
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games
Oakland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Oakland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 18 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games on the road
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Tennessee Titans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
New England Patriots
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing New England
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-13-3 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 24 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Monday, November 25
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing LA Rams
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Hot & Not Report - Week 12
Matt Blunt
Week of November 18th
Last week's piece touched on a few different live scenarios that were out there in the NFL this past weekend, and for the most part the runs those specific spots were on didn't hold up quite as well. Bad teams coming off a win like Cleveland, Atlanta, and the NY Jets all got their first against the spread (ATS) victories the following week in the past few days, while the offenses that had had a decent time bouncing back after sub-10-point efforts finished the day 1-2 ATS.
Hopefully some of you were able to catch (and play) the friendly reminder on fading teams post-London, as Houston and Jacksonville both got run out of the building in their respective games, to push that situation to a perfect 0-8 ATS this season. And all eight of those losses after a London game come post-bye week as well. Maybe that suggests we all put too much stock into bye weeks as it is, and it will be interesting to see if it holds up for the Chargers and Chiefs in a couple of weeks after their MNF game in Mexico this evening.
This week I'm sticking with the NFL as there are two specific divisions that have generally done well either going against or playing on their teams in non-division games, a situation that you'll see most of them in this week.
So let's get right to it:
Who's Hot
NFC West teams are 19-10 ATS in non-division games overall ? on a 11-5 ATS run since October 1st
In what is a loaded NFC conference at the top, it's the NFC West division that leads the way in terms of a depth argument in that conference. San Francisco and Seattle are neck-and-neck right now for the division title, while the defending champion Los Angeles Rams are trying to hold strong to stay in the Wildcard race. With Arizona improving as well, venturing into playing a NFC West opponent has not gone well for most that are outside of the division.
The Cardinals are actually tied with the Rams for the best non-division ATS record in the NFC West at 6-2 ATS, with San Francisco (4-2 ATS) and Seattle (3-4 ATS) coming in behind them. Given that the 49ers and Seahawks each have an ATS loss that's been by a point or less since the start of this great run for the division since October 1st, that number could be sitting much better then it already is.
Heading into Week 12, we've got the Arizona Cardinals off on their bye week, but the rest of this division is all up against non-conference foes. Seattle travels east to face an Eagles team that is trying their best to keep both avenues (division title and wildcard) to the playoffs open as long as possible, while San Francisco and the L.A. Rams both get the NFL prime time treatment at home, with the 49ers hosting the Packers on SNF, and the Rams hosting the Ravens on MNF. All three of these games have lines where the favorite is essentially laying just 3 points or less right now, so they are all expected to be close.
If that's the case, maybe we see this great run for NFC West teams in non-division games hit a bit of a road block. Yet, it will be interesting to see where the support lands on these contests as the week goes on, because one specifically ties into the next streak, and that is...
Who's Not
NFC East teams are 10-18 ATS in non-division games overall ? on a 7-11 ATS run since October 1 ? Not one of the four teams have a winning ATS record in non-division games in 2019
The NFC East is a division is nothing more then a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia, with the loser likely missing out on the playoffs entirely. The Giants and Redskins are two of the Top 5 worst teams in the league, so fading them as a good thing isn't too surprising, but the fact that this entire division struggles against the rest of the league does say something about how mediocre the level of football this division plays that they pass off as good.
Now to be fair, Philly is one of those two teams fighting for this division crown, and do own the best non-division record in the NFC East at 4-4 ATS. But that's as close to a winning record as any of these four teams get after Week 11, as the Cowboys are 2-4 ATS while Washington and the NY Giants are each 2-5 ATS outside of the division. The records of the latter two teams are likely to continue to get worse before they definitively get better, while the team that does better in their remaining non-division games between the Eagles and Cowboys is likely the one that rides that success to a division crown. But it's Week 12 brings some interesting games for all four of these teams, as they are all stepping outside of the division as well.
The Giants are on the road catching about a TD currently in Chicago and the Redskins are catching a FG at home against the Lions. Both of those teams are facing teams with QB concerns from a health standpoint right now, so it will be interesting to see what kind of movement they end up seeing.
Dallas finds themselves in New England to take on a great Patriots team, a game Eagles fans are hoping New England can win. Dallas finds themselves catching about six points early on, and given that it's under that key number of -7 and this being a spot where fading NFC East teams has been profitable, seeing if the Patriots ever touch -7 again will be interesting as well.
And finally there are the Eagles, at home and laying about two points, to a team that's already been mentioned in this piece; the Seattle Seahawks.
The 2019 history of non-division games for teams from the NFC West and NFC East suggest that backing Seattle against the number is the only way to look here. You are backing the Seahawks in a ?hot? role, fading the Eagles in a ?cold? role at the same time, and getting points with the better team. Very hard not to like Seattle this week, for many other reasons as well.
And while the other three games featuring NFC East teams will be intriguing from a reactionary standpoint in terms of where their point spreads line up, this Seahawks/Eagles game is one where you've got to be proactive if you are already leaning towards the Seattle side. This line is far more likely to sniff the 'pick'em' range then it will getting to Philly -3, so getting down action on Seattle sooner rather then later is probably the best course of action here.
*****************************
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 12 odds: Now's not the time to bet the Niners
Jason Logan
Books are bracing for underdog money on the Packers Sunday night, so if you like the 49ers you may want to play it cool and see if you can get San Francisco under the key number of a field goal.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.
Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 12 board.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6, 46)
Being ?America?s Team?, the Cowboys always attract action at the window from legions of Dallas backers blindly betting the Boys. And it would seem, even in a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs, early money is siding with Dallas.
The Cowboys opened as big as +6.5 at New England in Week 12 and books have trimmed that down to +6 at most books. The juice on Patriots -6 is seeing a discount as low as -105 and there?s even a -5.5 on the board as of Monday afternoon.
New England hasn?t been overwhelmingly impressive this season and is coming off an ugly win over Philadelphia this past Sunday. Dallas also took a ?fugly? victory over a Stafford-less Detroit squad but the offense is firing on all cylinders ? something Tom Brady & Co. can?t say after scoring 20 and 17 points respectively in their last two games. If you like the Cowboys collect the points at the key number of six while it still stands.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, 45.5)
According to bookmakers, they expect money on the underdog Packers in this Sunday Night Football showdown. San Francisco hasn?t looked great in its last three games: two near losses to Arizona and a OT defeat at the hands of Seattle. Granted, the 49ers were dealing with dual-threat dynamos, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who amounted for 154 yards rushing on 19 total carries in those three games.
Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons in his arsenal but he?s not as spry as those two QBs. The Cheeseheads are coming off a bye in Week 11, but before that squeaked out a win against Carolina (was McCaffrey in?) and fell to the L.A. Chargers.
San Francisco should get some bodies back in Week 12, with kicker Robbie Gould coming around and TE George Kittle listed at day-to-day. If you?re giving the Niners the nod, wait it out and see how low you can grab them under the key of a field goal.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 45.5 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
This number has made a significant dive, from as high as 47 to 45.5 points. Now might be the time to strike if you like the Over. For one: this is a primetime game and the public loves to root for high-scoring football in those night games, so action on the Over is expected.
The Colts will lean on the arm of QB Jacob Brissett more with RB Marlon Mack out with a hand injury. Indianapolis runs the ball on 47 percent of snaps but may have to resort to the air more often in this AFC South matchup, lending value to the Over. Brissett did enjoy his best game of the season at home to the Texans in Week 7, passing for three touchdowns on 326 yards - a game that scored 53 total points and topped the 46.5 Over/Under.
Houston just got cracked for 41 points versus Baltimore and hasn?t been that stout a defense in 2019, allowing 30 or more points four times this season. The Texans offense ? namely Deshaun Watson ? will be eager to shake a stinky 7-point showing in Week 11, in which the QB passed for only 169 yards and an interception. Beat the public to the window and bet this Over now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 39 PITTSBURGH STEEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
This total is already on the way down, moving from 39.5 to 39, and I project it going even lower between now and kickoff Sunday. The Steelers mustered only seven points in a short week versus Cleveland last Thursday, which is fresh in everyone?s mind. But before that ugly result, Pittsburgh?s offense was finding its footing, averaging 24 points between Weeks 4 and 10 with second-stringer Mason Rudolph at the wheel.
The Bengals surrendered 27 points in a Week 4 loss at Pittsburgh, managing a lonely field goal in rebuttal. Cincinnati hasn?t been much better ever since, averaging only 15 points per outing in the six games since that dismal Monday night display.
That said, with a total this low, Over bettors may not need much more from Cincy to slide in above the number. The Bengals are notably better on offense at home - 17.5 points per home game versus 12.5 points per away game ? and are 6-2-1 Over/Under in their previous nine games inside Paul Brown Stadium. If you like the Over, set your Covers Live App alert and see if you can get something in the 38-point range later in the week.
Matt Blunt
Week of November 18th
Last week's piece touched on a few different live scenarios that were out there in the NFL this past weekend, and for the most part the runs those specific spots were on didn't hold up quite as well. Bad teams coming off a win like Cleveland, Atlanta, and the NY Jets all got their first against the spread (ATS) victories the following week in the past few days, while the offenses that had had a decent time bouncing back after sub-10-point efforts finished the day 1-2 ATS.
Hopefully some of you were able to catch (and play) the friendly reminder on fading teams post-London, as Houston and Jacksonville both got run out of the building in their respective games, to push that situation to a perfect 0-8 ATS this season. And all eight of those losses after a London game come post-bye week as well. Maybe that suggests we all put too much stock into bye weeks as it is, and it will be interesting to see if it holds up for the Chargers and Chiefs in a couple of weeks after their MNF game in Mexico this evening.
This week I'm sticking with the NFL as there are two specific divisions that have generally done well either going against or playing on their teams in non-division games, a situation that you'll see most of them in this week.
So let's get right to it:
Who's Hot
NFC West teams are 19-10 ATS in non-division games overall ? on a 11-5 ATS run since October 1st
In what is a loaded NFC conference at the top, it's the NFC West division that leads the way in terms of a depth argument in that conference. San Francisco and Seattle are neck-and-neck right now for the division title, while the defending champion Los Angeles Rams are trying to hold strong to stay in the Wildcard race. With Arizona improving as well, venturing into playing a NFC West opponent has not gone well for most that are outside of the division.
The Cardinals are actually tied with the Rams for the best non-division ATS record in the NFC West at 6-2 ATS, with San Francisco (4-2 ATS) and Seattle (3-4 ATS) coming in behind them. Given that the 49ers and Seahawks each have an ATS loss that's been by a point or less since the start of this great run for the division since October 1st, that number could be sitting much better then it already is.
Heading into Week 12, we've got the Arizona Cardinals off on their bye week, but the rest of this division is all up against non-conference foes. Seattle travels east to face an Eagles team that is trying their best to keep both avenues (division title and wildcard) to the playoffs open as long as possible, while San Francisco and the L.A. Rams both get the NFL prime time treatment at home, with the 49ers hosting the Packers on SNF, and the Rams hosting the Ravens on MNF. All three of these games have lines where the favorite is essentially laying just 3 points or less right now, so they are all expected to be close.
If that's the case, maybe we see this great run for NFC West teams in non-division games hit a bit of a road block. Yet, it will be interesting to see where the support lands on these contests as the week goes on, because one specifically ties into the next streak, and that is...
Who's Not
NFC East teams are 10-18 ATS in non-division games overall ? on a 7-11 ATS run since October 1 ? Not one of the four teams have a winning ATS record in non-division games in 2019
The NFC East is a division is nothing more then a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia, with the loser likely missing out on the playoffs entirely. The Giants and Redskins are two of the Top 5 worst teams in the league, so fading them as a good thing isn't too surprising, but the fact that this entire division struggles against the rest of the league does say something about how mediocre the level of football this division plays that they pass off as good.
Now to be fair, Philly is one of those two teams fighting for this division crown, and do own the best non-division record in the NFC East at 4-4 ATS. But that's as close to a winning record as any of these four teams get after Week 11, as the Cowboys are 2-4 ATS while Washington and the NY Giants are each 2-5 ATS outside of the division. The records of the latter two teams are likely to continue to get worse before they definitively get better, while the team that does better in their remaining non-division games between the Eagles and Cowboys is likely the one that rides that success to a division crown. But it's Week 12 brings some interesting games for all four of these teams, as they are all stepping outside of the division as well.
The Giants are on the road catching about a TD currently in Chicago and the Redskins are catching a FG at home against the Lions. Both of those teams are facing teams with QB concerns from a health standpoint right now, so it will be interesting to see what kind of movement they end up seeing.
Dallas finds themselves in New England to take on a great Patriots team, a game Eagles fans are hoping New England can win. Dallas finds themselves catching about six points early on, and given that it's under that key number of -7 and this being a spot where fading NFC East teams has been profitable, seeing if the Patriots ever touch -7 again will be interesting as well.
And finally there are the Eagles, at home and laying about two points, to a team that's already been mentioned in this piece; the Seattle Seahawks.
The 2019 history of non-division games for teams from the NFC West and NFC East suggest that backing Seattle against the number is the only way to look here. You are backing the Seahawks in a ?hot? role, fading the Eagles in a ?cold? role at the same time, and getting points with the better team. Very hard not to like Seattle this week, for many other reasons as well.
And while the other three games featuring NFC East teams will be intriguing from a reactionary standpoint in terms of where their point spreads line up, this Seahawks/Eagles game is one where you've got to be proactive if you are already leaning towards the Seattle side. This line is far more likely to sniff the 'pick'em' range then it will getting to Philly -3, so getting down action on Seattle sooner rather then later is probably the best course of action here.
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Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 12 odds: Now's not the time to bet the Niners
Jason Logan
Books are bracing for underdog money on the Packers Sunday night, so if you like the 49ers you may want to play it cool and see if you can get San Francisco under the key number of a field goal.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.
Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 12 board.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6, 46)
Being ?America?s Team?, the Cowboys always attract action at the window from legions of Dallas backers blindly betting the Boys. And it would seem, even in a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs, early money is siding with Dallas.
The Cowboys opened as big as +6.5 at New England in Week 12 and books have trimmed that down to +6 at most books. The juice on Patriots -6 is seeing a discount as low as -105 and there?s even a -5.5 on the board as of Monday afternoon.
New England hasn?t been overwhelmingly impressive this season and is coming off an ugly win over Philadelphia this past Sunday. Dallas also took a ?fugly? victory over a Stafford-less Detroit squad but the offense is firing on all cylinders ? something Tom Brady & Co. can?t say after scoring 20 and 17 points respectively in their last two games. If you like the Cowboys collect the points at the key number of six while it still stands.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, 45.5)
According to bookmakers, they expect money on the underdog Packers in this Sunday Night Football showdown. San Francisco hasn?t looked great in its last three games: two near losses to Arizona and a OT defeat at the hands of Seattle. Granted, the 49ers were dealing with dual-threat dynamos, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who amounted for 154 yards rushing on 19 total carries in those three games.
Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons in his arsenal but he?s not as spry as those two QBs. The Cheeseheads are coming off a bye in Week 11, but before that squeaked out a win against Carolina (was McCaffrey in?) and fell to the L.A. Chargers.
San Francisco should get some bodies back in Week 12, with kicker Robbie Gould coming around and TE George Kittle listed at day-to-day. If you?re giving the Niners the nod, wait it out and see how low you can grab them under the key of a field goal.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 45.5 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
This number has made a significant dive, from as high as 47 to 45.5 points. Now might be the time to strike if you like the Over. For one: this is a primetime game and the public loves to root for high-scoring football in those night games, so action on the Over is expected.
The Colts will lean on the arm of QB Jacob Brissett more with RB Marlon Mack out with a hand injury. Indianapolis runs the ball on 47 percent of snaps but may have to resort to the air more often in this AFC South matchup, lending value to the Over. Brissett did enjoy his best game of the season at home to the Texans in Week 7, passing for three touchdowns on 326 yards - a game that scored 53 total points and topped the 46.5 Over/Under.
Houston just got cracked for 41 points versus Baltimore and hasn?t been that stout a defense in 2019, allowing 30 or more points four times this season. The Texans offense ? namely Deshaun Watson ? will be eager to shake a stinky 7-point showing in Week 11, in which the QB passed for only 169 yards and an interception. Beat the public to the window and bet this Over now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 39 PITTSBURGH STEEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
This total is already on the way down, moving from 39.5 to 39, and I project it going even lower between now and kickoff Sunday. The Steelers mustered only seven points in a short week versus Cleveland last Thursday, which is fresh in everyone?s mind. But before that ugly result, Pittsburgh?s offense was finding its footing, averaging 24 points between Weeks 4 and 10 with second-stringer Mason Rudolph at the wheel.
The Bengals surrendered 27 points in a Week 4 loss at Pittsburgh, managing a lonely field goal in rebuttal. Cincinnati hasn?t been much better ever since, averaging only 15 points per outing in the six games since that dismal Monday night display.
That said, with a total this low, Over bettors may not need much more from Cincy to slide in above the number. The Bengals are notably better on offense at home - 17.5 points per home game versus 12.5 points per away game ? and are 6-2-1 Over/Under in their previous nine games inside Paul Brown Stadium. If you like the Over, set your Covers Live App alert and see if you can get something in the 38-point range later in the week.
Best spot bets for the NFL Week 12 odds: Browns-Steelers brawl bleeds over into schedule
Jason Logan
Both the Browns and Steelers could be falling into spot bets in NFL Week 12 coming off a crazy finish to Cleveland's win last Thursday night.
The schedule can make or break an NFL team at this point in the season. And it can do the same for your wagers. Situational handicapping should always be folded into ? or at least considered when sizing up the NFL odds each week.
Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the Week 12 slate and picks out his favorite ?Letdown?, ?Lookahead?, and ?Schedule? spots and how those situations could shake down at the sportsbook.
LETDOWN SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11, 44)
The Browns had one hell of a Week 10, knocking off rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football and picking up their second straight win. In the midst of all that, standout DE Myles Garrett got into it with Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and tried knocking his head off with his own helmet.
It made for a very messy week in Ohio ? a week in which Cleveland should have enjoyed a mini bye and some extra time to tinker before Week 12. However, the added stress and media attention marred what could have been a turning point for the Browns? 2019 season.
The Week 12 opponent ? Miami ? is a tough team to get up for in the first place, and this letdown angle comes with a sprinkle of lookahead as well. Next up for the Browns: a trip to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in Week 13. Cleveland is currently laying 11 points versus the Dolphins at home this Sunday.
LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5, 39)
Hey, what do you know? The other side of that Thursday?s night dramafest falls into one of our weekly spot bet slots. Pittsburgh can?t wait to get another crack at Cleveland after: 1. Losing to the Browns 21 -7 2. The Garrett incident which equalled a suspension for C Maurkice Pouncey and a fine for Rudolph.
But before the Steelers can exact revenge, they have another AFC North foe from Ohio standing in the way. The winless Bengals are a main ingredient for a lookahead spot, having cracked the 20-point plateau just twice all season. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, it rolled to a 27-3 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 4.
Oddsmakers are giving the host Bengals 6.5 points and that spread has already flirted with a touchdown at some markets, instantly taking money on Cincinnati and sliding the line back under the key number. According to our Covers Consensus, 70 percent of the early ticket count is on Pittsburgh so expect a move to Steelers -7 before kickoff.
SCHEDULE SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (+3, 45.5)
People love to play against West Coast teams coming east for an early 1 p.m. ET start, which is 10 a.m. PT back home. While blindly betting against those qualifying teams is a bad decision, the Raiders have played into this notion in recent years.
Heading into a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in East Rutherford, Oakland is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. This season, the Silver and Black have done a few of these early wakeups, losing SU and ATS at Minnesota in Week 3, winning and covering in Indianapolis in Week 4, winning and covering versus Chicago in London in Week 5, and losing and coming up short ATS at Green Bay in Week 7.
The Raiders played a road-heavy stretch of schedule during that span but have enjoyed three straight home games before this matchup with the Jets. Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games overall ? regardless of start time ? and the home team has been the hot bet when these teams clash, with hosts going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Jason Logan
Both the Browns and Steelers could be falling into spot bets in NFL Week 12 coming off a crazy finish to Cleveland's win last Thursday night.
The schedule can make or break an NFL team at this point in the season. And it can do the same for your wagers. Situational handicapping should always be folded into ? or at least considered when sizing up the NFL odds each week.
Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the Week 12 slate and picks out his favorite ?Letdown?, ?Lookahead?, and ?Schedule? spots and how those situations could shake down at the sportsbook.
LETDOWN SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11, 44)
The Browns had one hell of a Week 10, knocking off rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football and picking up their second straight win. In the midst of all that, standout DE Myles Garrett got into it with Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and tried knocking his head off with his own helmet.
It made for a very messy week in Ohio ? a week in which Cleveland should have enjoyed a mini bye and some extra time to tinker before Week 12. However, the added stress and media attention marred what could have been a turning point for the Browns? 2019 season.
The Week 12 opponent ? Miami ? is a tough team to get up for in the first place, and this letdown angle comes with a sprinkle of lookahead as well. Next up for the Browns: a trip to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in Week 13. Cleveland is currently laying 11 points versus the Dolphins at home this Sunday.
LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5, 39)
Hey, what do you know? The other side of that Thursday?s night dramafest falls into one of our weekly spot bet slots. Pittsburgh can?t wait to get another crack at Cleveland after: 1. Losing to the Browns 21 -7 2. The Garrett incident which equalled a suspension for C Maurkice Pouncey and a fine for Rudolph.
But before the Steelers can exact revenge, they have another AFC North foe from Ohio standing in the way. The winless Bengals are a main ingredient for a lookahead spot, having cracked the 20-point plateau just twice all season. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, it rolled to a 27-3 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 4.
Oddsmakers are giving the host Bengals 6.5 points and that spread has already flirted with a touchdown at some markets, instantly taking money on Cincinnati and sliding the line back under the key number. According to our Covers Consensus, 70 percent of the early ticket count is on Pittsburgh so expect a move to Steelers -7 before kickoff.
SCHEDULE SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (+3, 45.5)
People love to play against West Coast teams coming east for an early 1 p.m. ET start, which is 10 a.m. PT back home. While blindly betting against those qualifying teams is a bad decision, the Raiders have played into this notion in recent years.
Heading into a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in East Rutherford, Oakland is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. This season, the Silver and Black have done a few of these early wakeups, losing SU and ATS at Minnesota in Week 3, winning and covering in Indianapolis in Week 4, winning and covering versus Chicago in London in Week 5, and losing and coming up short ATS at Green Bay in Week 7.
The Raiders played a road-heavy stretch of schedule during that span but have enjoyed three straight home games before this matchup with the Jets. Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games overall ? regardless of start time ? and the home team has been the hot bet when these teams clash, with hosts going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
NFL's Top ATS Teams:
t1. Patriots 7-3 ATS
t1. Packers 7-3 ATS
t1. Saints 7-3 ATS
t1. Rams 7-3 ATS
t1. Cardinals 7-3-1 ATS
6. Bills 5-3-1 ATS
t7. Cowboys 6-4 ATS
t7. Raiders 6-4 ATS
t7. Steelers 6-4 ATS
t7. Broncos 6-4 ATS
NFL's Worst ATS Teams:
32. Buccaneers 2-8 ATS
t29. Redskins 3-7 ATS
t29. Giants 3-7 ATS
t29. Bears 3-7 ATS
t27. Browns 3-6-1 ATS
t27. Chargers 3-6-2 ATS
t22. Bengals, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Eagles 4-6 ATS
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Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, Nov. 21
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Indy 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, but won alst week, and Colts are 7-3 vs. line last ten on road. Also won and covered last 3 vs. Texans. Houston just 1-4 vs. spread last five at NRG Stadium.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on team and recent series trends.
Sunday, Nov. 24
MIAMI at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins have covered 5 of last 6 TY ith Fitzpatrick at QB including three straight on road. Browns still just 3-6-1 vs. spread this season after Steelers win and 1-4-1 last six vs. line.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.
DENVER at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos have covered 5 of last 6 TY, Bills just 3-3 as chalk. Denver on 15-4 ?under? run, Buffalo ?under? 9-4 last 13, 16-8 since early 2018.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Broncos, based on ?totals? and team trends.
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel still 6-2 last 8 vs. line after Browns loss. Steel ?under? 6-2 last 8 TY and ?under? 12-5 last 17 since late 2018. Cincy 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Paul Brown. Bengals ?under? 9-4-2 last 14 since late 2018. Steel 6-2 vs. spread last 8 in series and has covered 4 of last 5 at Cincy.
Tech Edge: Steel and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.
N.Y. GIANTS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 1-5 vs. spread last six TY, though have covered 2 of last 3 as road dog, and 8-3 in role since LY. NY ?over? 12-6 last 18 since mid 2018. Bears 3-8 last 10 vs. spread, ?under? 14-3 last 17 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.
OAKLAND at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered 5 of their last 7 in 2019, also ?over? 6-4 TY. Interestingly only three games as chalk since LY (2-1 in role). Jets ?over? last 4 TY.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Raiders, based on ?totals? and team trends.
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-3 vs. line last eight TY (though 0-2 L2), 2-2 as road dog TY after 0-3 mark in role LY. Saints have won and covered seven of last eight this season. Note last five meetings ?over? at Superdome.
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.
TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs no covers last six TY, also ?over? 9-2 since late 2018. Falcs have covered last three TY after five Ls in a row prior. Home team has covered last four meetings. ?Overs? 5-1 last six in series.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and Falcons, based on ?totals? and series trends.
DETROIT at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions no covers last 5 TY, though Skins only 2-8 vs. line since late 2018. Skins ?under? 6-1 last seven TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.
SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line away TY. Hawks 10-1-1 last 12 as dog. Eagles 4-10-1 last 15 reg season vs. line at Linc.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-2 vs. line as visitor TY, though have lost and failed to cover last four at Nashville. Home team has now covered last five Titans games TY (Tenn 3-0 last 3 at home). Titans ?over? last 4 TY, Jags ?over? last 4 as visitor.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 7-6 vs. spread away in reg season since LY, also ?over? 8-3 last 11 reg season. Belichick on 16-4 spread run at Gillette Stadium, and 15-4 ?under? run in reg season.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to ?under,? based on team and Belichick ?totals? trends.
GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Pack 7-3 vs. line TY, 3-1 vs. spread away. Pack 2-0 as dog TY. Niners only 3-4-1 vs. spread last eight TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on team trends.
Monday, Nov. 25
BALTIMORE at L.A. RAMS - (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Ravens 4-1 SU and vs. line away TY, 7-1 vs. spread last eight away. Also ?over? 4-1 away. Rams 3-6 vs. spread last 9 at Coliseum.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.
t1. Patriots 7-3 ATS
t1. Packers 7-3 ATS
t1. Saints 7-3 ATS
t1. Rams 7-3 ATS
t1. Cardinals 7-3-1 ATS
6. Bills 5-3-1 ATS
t7. Cowboys 6-4 ATS
t7. Raiders 6-4 ATS
t7. Steelers 6-4 ATS
t7. Broncos 6-4 ATS
NFL's Worst ATS Teams:
32. Buccaneers 2-8 ATS
t29. Redskins 3-7 ATS
t29. Giants 3-7 ATS
t29. Bears 3-7 ATS
t27. Browns 3-6-1 ATS
t27. Chargers 3-6-2 ATS
t22. Bengals, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Eagles 4-6 ATS
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Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, Nov. 21
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Indy 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, but won alst week, and Colts are 7-3 vs. line last ten on road. Also won and covered last 3 vs. Texans. Houston just 1-4 vs. spread last five at NRG Stadium.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on team and recent series trends.
Sunday, Nov. 24
MIAMI at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins have covered 5 of last 6 TY ith Fitzpatrick at QB including three straight on road. Browns still just 3-6-1 vs. spread this season after Steelers win and 1-4-1 last six vs. line.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.
DENVER at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos have covered 5 of last 6 TY, Bills just 3-3 as chalk. Denver on 15-4 ?under? run, Buffalo ?under? 9-4 last 13, 16-8 since early 2018.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Broncos, based on ?totals? and team trends.
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel still 6-2 last 8 vs. line after Browns loss. Steel ?under? 6-2 last 8 TY and ?under? 12-5 last 17 since late 2018. Cincy 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Paul Brown. Bengals ?under? 9-4-2 last 14 since late 2018. Steel 6-2 vs. spread last 8 in series and has covered 4 of last 5 at Cincy.
Tech Edge: Steel and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.
N.Y. GIANTS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 1-5 vs. spread last six TY, though have covered 2 of last 3 as road dog, and 8-3 in role since LY. NY ?over? 12-6 last 18 since mid 2018. Bears 3-8 last 10 vs. spread, ?under? 14-3 last 17 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.
OAKLAND at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered 5 of their last 7 in 2019, also ?over? 6-4 TY. Interestingly only three games as chalk since LY (2-1 in role). Jets ?over? last 4 TY.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Raiders, based on ?totals? and team trends.
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-3 vs. line last eight TY (though 0-2 L2), 2-2 as road dog TY after 0-3 mark in role LY. Saints have won and covered seven of last eight this season. Note last five meetings ?over? at Superdome.
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.
TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs no covers last six TY, also ?over? 9-2 since late 2018. Falcs have covered last three TY after five Ls in a row prior. Home team has covered last four meetings. ?Overs? 5-1 last six in series.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and Falcons, based on ?totals? and series trends.
DETROIT at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions no covers last 5 TY, though Skins only 2-8 vs. line since late 2018. Skins ?under? 6-1 last seven TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.
SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line away TY. Hawks 10-1-1 last 12 as dog. Eagles 4-10-1 last 15 reg season vs. line at Linc.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-2 vs. line as visitor TY, though have lost and failed to cover last four at Nashville. Home team has now covered last five Titans games TY (Tenn 3-0 last 3 at home). Titans ?over? last 4 TY, Jags ?over? last 4 as visitor.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 7-6 vs. spread away in reg season since LY, also ?over? 8-3 last 11 reg season. Belichick on 16-4 spread run at Gillette Stadium, and 15-4 ?under? run in reg season.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to ?under,? based on team and Belichick ?totals? trends.
GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Pack 7-3 vs. line TY, 3-1 vs. spread away. Pack 2-0 as dog TY. Niners only 3-4-1 vs. spread last eight TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on team trends.
Monday, Nov. 25
BALTIMORE at L.A. RAMS - (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Ravens 4-1 SU and vs. line away TY, 7-1 vs. spread last eight away. Also ?over? 4-1 away. Rams 3-6 vs. spread last 9 at Coliseum.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,305
- 25
- 48
NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 12:
Road Teams: 90-68-4 ATS
Home Teams: 68-90-4 ATS
Favorites: 69-89-4 ATS
Underdogs: 89-69-4 ATS
Home Faves: 41-62-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-28 ATS
Road Faves: 28-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 62-41-4 ATS
O/U: 79-83
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by: Josh Inglis
COLTS CONTROL THE LINE
The Indianapolis Colts? Marlon Mack fractured his hand last Sunday and will be out for Thursday?s game against the Houston Texans. Coach Frank Reich told reporters that Nyheim Hines will stick with his passing role as either Jordan Wilkins or Johnathan Williams will take over the early-down work. The lead spot should be Williams? as Wilkins was inactive in Week 11 with an ankle injury, a DNP on the team?s estimated practice report on Monday and limited on Tuesday.
The Colts ran for a robust 264 yards versus the Texans as Williams passed the century mark in his fill-in role on just 13 touches. Indy?s offensive-line has been dominating the line of scrimmage of late and all year as they are rushing for an average of 170.7 yards in the last three games (second-most) and 172.2 yards per game on the road (second-most).
Houston gave up 264 rushing yards last week to the best rushing team in the league but have also surrendered the ninth-most yards per rush this year and the third-most over the last three weeks.
We are banking on the Colts? running game and feel this is a plus matchup for Williams in a divisional game that will decide an AFC South leader. Even if Wilkins dresses, we still like the Colts to feature the run and hand out double-digit rushes to Williams. Take Williams? rushing total on any number below 65 yards.
CHECK DOWN VALUE
Nick Foles got his job back last week and fell short in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. The Jaguars QB padded his stats in garbage time and fell in love with his checkdowns as he averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt ? that?s Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky territory. Still, Foles attempted 47 passes and completed 33 which makes us think there is some value in Jacksonville?s receivers' reception totals for their Week 12 matchup against a Tennessee Titans 22nd-ranked pass defense.
The object of Foles? attention last week was receiver D.J. Chark. Chark was the most targeted receiver in the league last week catching eight of his 15 targets while seeing 36 targets in his last three matches. If Foles is afraid to take his shots, Chark could easily surpass a reception total of 4 or 5.
We will take the Over on any total below six for Chark?s reception total.
PRIMETIME 3-TEAM TEASER
Here is a three-team, six-point teaser for this week?s primetime games that pays out +160.
IND +9.5 @ HOU: As mentioned above, the Colts could dominate this game on the ground and control the tempo versus a Texans team is 1-3 ATS as the favorite this year. DeShaun Watson is also just 1-2 versus the Colts over his career losing by seven this year, winning by three in Indianapolis in 2018 and losing by a field goal at home in Week 13 last year.
GB @ SF +3: San Francisco will look to ride the momentum from last week?s come-from-behind win and will get to do so on Sunday Night Football versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers let a terrible Panthers team hang around and escaped with a win in Week 10 before hitting their bye in Week 11. Rodgers hasn?t looked great in his last two starts, going 40 for 64 for just 394 yards and one TD since Week 9. We don?t see GB winning by more than thre
BAL +3 @ LAR: Baltimore may be the best team in football but the fact that they are only three-point favorites versus a team led by a quarterback who is 27th in QBR ? just ahead of Andy Dalton and Mitch Trubisky ? is disrespect to Lamar Jackson. Goff may have more passing weapons back for the Monday nighter, but the Rams have averaged just nine points per game against top-10 DVOA defenses since Week 3.
BYE THE BOOK
Since Week 4, teams coming off their bye week are 9-15 against the spread. Of those games, favorites are 5-5 ATS but the dogs are having the most problems going 4-10 ATS to date. This week has four teams coming out of their bye week, with three of those four being underdogs.
Seattle (+1.5) will probably be a popular public pick this week and we don?t blame backers as that Eagles' offense isn?t threatening with a receiving core that featured Jordan Matthews last week.
The Giants (+6.5) could roll into Chicago and surprise a team that doesn?t know who will be starting at quarterback thanks to a mysterious hip-pointer injury to Mitch Trubisky. If Daniel Jones and the offense can limit turnovers (2.5 per game), then the Giants have a good shot at covering and bucking the trend.
Green Bay (+3) is our favorite bye team to not cover this week. The Packers? struggling passing offense will be in for a battle versus San Fran?s No. 2 pass defense. The Niners are tightening things up even more at home as they are giving up just 132 yards through the air at Levi?s Stadium ? the lowest mark in the league. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS on spreads less than six points.
NO TDS IN 10 QUARTERS
No defense is hotter than Atlanta Falcons?. The former bottom-five defense has held opponents to 13 points a game over the last three weeks and will look to make it a natural clean sweep against divisional opponents as they entertain the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Atlanta held the Saints? No.8 offense to just nine points (three field goals) on the road and embarrassed the Panthers by giving up just a field goal last week. Now they get to tee off on a quarterback who has six interceptions, two fumbles and has been sacked six times in his last two games. Look for the Falcons? pass rush to bully Jameis Winston all day after sacking Drew Brees six times in Week 10 and Kyle Allen five times in Week 11.
We are betting on a surging defense that hasn?t allowed a TD in their last 10 quarters while at the same time fading a quarterback who could lose his job at any moment. Take the Buccaneers? team total Under 23.5.
Road Teams: 90-68-4 ATS
Home Teams: 68-90-4 ATS
Favorites: 69-89-4 ATS
Underdogs: 89-69-4 ATS
Home Faves: 41-62-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-28 ATS
Road Faves: 28-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 62-41-4 ATS
O/U: 79-83
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by: Josh Inglis
COLTS CONTROL THE LINE
The Indianapolis Colts? Marlon Mack fractured his hand last Sunday and will be out for Thursday?s game against the Houston Texans. Coach Frank Reich told reporters that Nyheim Hines will stick with his passing role as either Jordan Wilkins or Johnathan Williams will take over the early-down work. The lead spot should be Williams? as Wilkins was inactive in Week 11 with an ankle injury, a DNP on the team?s estimated practice report on Monday and limited on Tuesday.
The Colts ran for a robust 264 yards versus the Texans as Williams passed the century mark in his fill-in role on just 13 touches. Indy?s offensive-line has been dominating the line of scrimmage of late and all year as they are rushing for an average of 170.7 yards in the last three games (second-most) and 172.2 yards per game on the road (second-most).
Houston gave up 264 rushing yards last week to the best rushing team in the league but have also surrendered the ninth-most yards per rush this year and the third-most over the last three weeks.
We are banking on the Colts? running game and feel this is a plus matchup for Williams in a divisional game that will decide an AFC South leader. Even if Wilkins dresses, we still like the Colts to feature the run and hand out double-digit rushes to Williams. Take Williams? rushing total on any number below 65 yards.
CHECK DOWN VALUE
Nick Foles got his job back last week and fell short in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. The Jaguars QB padded his stats in garbage time and fell in love with his checkdowns as he averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt ? that?s Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky territory. Still, Foles attempted 47 passes and completed 33 which makes us think there is some value in Jacksonville?s receivers' reception totals for their Week 12 matchup against a Tennessee Titans 22nd-ranked pass defense.
The object of Foles? attention last week was receiver D.J. Chark. Chark was the most targeted receiver in the league last week catching eight of his 15 targets while seeing 36 targets in his last three matches. If Foles is afraid to take his shots, Chark could easily surpass a reception total of 4 or 5.
We will take the Over on any total below six for Chark?s reception total.
PRIMETIME 3-TEAM TEASER
Here is a three-team, six-point teaser for this week?s primetime games that pays out +160.
IND +9.5 @ HOU: As mentioned above, the Colts could dominate this game on the ground and control the tempo versus a Texans team is 1-3 ATS as the favorite this year. DeShaun Watson is also just 1-2 versus the Colts over his career losing by seven this year, winning by three in Indianapolis in 2018 and losing by a field goal at home in Week 13 last year.
GB @ SF +3: San Francisco will look to ride the momentum from last week?s come-from-behind win and will get to do so on Sunday Night Football versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers let a terrible Panthers team hang around and escaped with a win in Week 10 before hitting their bye in Week 11. Rodgers hasn?t looked great in his last two starts, going 40 for 64 for just 394 yards and one TD since Week 9. We don?t see GB winning by more than thre
BAL +3 @ LAR: Baltimore may be the best team in football but the fact that they are only three-point favorites versus a team led by a quarterback who is 27th in QBR ? just ahead of Andy Dalton and Mitch Trubisky ? is disrespect to Lamar Jackson. Goff may have more passing weapons back for the Monday nighter, but the Rams have averaged just nine points per game against top-10 DVOA defenses since Week 3.
BYE THE BOOK
Since Week 4, teams coming off their bye week are 9-15 against the spread. Of those games, favorites are 5-5 ATS but the dogs are having the most problems going 4-10 ATS to date. This week has four teams coming out of their bye week, with three of those four being underdogs.
Seattle (+1.5) will probably be a popular public pick this week and we don?t blame backers as that Eagles' offense isn?t threatening with a receiving core that featured Jordan Matthews last week.
The Giants (+6.5) could roll into Chicago and surprise a team that doesn?t know who will be starting at quarterback thanks to a mysterious hip-pointer injury to Mitch Trubisky. If Daniel Jones and the offense can limit turnovers (2.5 per game), then the Giants have a good shot at covering and bucking the trend.
Green Bay (+3) is our favorite bye team to not cover this week. The Packers? struggling passing offense will be in for a battle versus San Fran?s No. 2 pass defense. The Niners are tightening things up even more at home as they are giving up just 132 yards through the air at Levi?s Stadium ? the lowest mark in the league. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS on spreads less than six points.
NO TDS IN 10 QUARTERS
No defense is hotter than Atlanta Falcons?. The former bottom-five defense has held opponents to 13 points a game over the last three weeks and will look to make it a natural clean sweep against divisional opponents as they entertain the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Atlanta held the Saints? No.8 offense to just nine points (three field goals) on the road and embarrassed the Panthers by giving up just a field goal last week. Now they get to tee off on a quarterback who has six interceptions, two fumbles and has been sacked six times in his last two games. Look for the Falcons? pass rush to bully Jameis Winston all day after sacking Drew Brees six times in Week 10 and Kyle Allen five times in Week 11.
We are betting on a surging defense that hasn?t allowed a TD in their last 10 quarters while at the same time fading a quarterback who could lose his job at any moment. Take the Buccaneers? team total Under 23.5.
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NFL's Top Over Teams:
1. Buccaneers 8-2 O/U
t2. Cowboys 7-3 O/U
t2. Lions 7-3 O/U
t4. Cardinals 7-4 O/U
t4. Chiefs 7-4 O/U
t6. Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland & Seattle all tied at 6-4 O/U
NFL's Top Under Teams:
1. Chargers 8-3 U/O
t2. Falcons 7-3
t2. Bills 7-3
t2. Bears 7-3
t2. Bengals 7-3
t2. Rams 7-3
t2. Patriots 7-3
t2. Steelers 7-3
t9. Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami, & Washington all tied at 6-4
1. Buccaneers 8-2 O/U
t2. Cowboys 7-3 O/U
t2. Lions 7-3 O/U
t4. Cardinals 7-4 O/U
t4. Chiefs 7-4 O/U
t6. Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland & Seattle all tied at 6-4 O/U
NFL's Top Under Teams:
1. Chargers 8-3 U/O
t2. Falcons 7-3
t2. Bills 7-3
t2. Bears 7-3
t2. Bengals 7-3
t2. Rams 7-3
t2. Patriots 7-3
t2. Steelers 7-3
t9. Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami, & Washington all tied at 6-4
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TNF - Colts at Texans
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) rebounded from a stunning loss as an 11-point underdog to the Dolphins the previous week to cruise past the Jaguars, 33-13 as 2 ?-point favorites. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett returned to the lineup for the Colts after missing the Miami game with a knee injury as threw for 148 yards and a touchdown, while running for another score.
Jacksonville scored the first touchdown of the game, but it was all Indianapolis after that as the Colts scored the next 31 points. The Colts torched the Jaguars on the ground by rushing for 264 yards on 36 carries, led by 116 yards from Jonathan Williams, who had rushed for 95 yards in his career prior to busting out on Sunday. Marlon Mack also hit the century mark on the ground as the Colts? running back racked up 109 yards and a touchdown, but left the game with a fractured hand and will miss several weeks.
The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) had an excellent opportunity to make a statement as one of the top teams in the AFC, but Houston?s offense could never get going in a 41-7 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore. The lone Texans? touchdown came on a 41-yard scamper from Carlos Hyde in the fourth quarter with Houston sitting in a 34-0 hole, as Deshaun Watson was limited to 169 yards passing. Watson has thrown for under 201 yards in four games this season, as Houston fell to 1-3 in those contests.
Houston?s defense allowed 263 yards rushing to Baltimore, as the Texans? first three losses came by a combined 11 points before losing by 34 last Sunday. The Texans fell to 3-3 ATS in the role of an underdog, while giving up its most points since yielding 41 points at Seattle in a three-point defeat in 2017. Houston?s pass defense has been lit up during the last six games by allowing 17 touchdown passes, including at least three passing touchdowns five times in this stretch.
MORE ON THAT LEAKY DEFENSE
Going further into that last nugget regarding the Texans and how opponents have torched them through the air lately is eye-opening. Baltimore?s Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes last week, the only aberration is Jacksonville?s Gardner Minshew, who failed to get the Jaguars in the end zone in a 26-3 setback in London to Houston. But Oakland?s Derek Carr posted three touchdown passes in a 27-24 defeat at Houston in Week 8, Brissett tossed four touchdowns in a seven-point win by the Colts in Week 7, Kansas City?s Patrick Mahomes put up three in Week 6, and Atlanta?s Matt Ryan threw three touchdowns in Week 5.
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
The Colts began the season with a pair of contests away from Lucas Oil Stadium by losing to the Chargers in overtime and edging the Titans. Since the bye week, Indianapolis has played four of five games at home, as the lone road affair came at Pittsburgh in a 26-24 defeat in Week 9. The Colts have split their four away contests, as every game has been decided by six points or fewer. Under head coach Frank Reich, the Colts own a 6-4-1 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog.
DIVISION IMPLICATIONS
Indianapolis is the only team in the AFC South to post a perfect record against division foes so far at 3-0. Houston has gone 2-1 inside the AFC South with both victories coming against Jacksonville and the loss coming to Indianapolis (more on that in a moment). Both the Colts and Texans own a one-game advantage over the Titans (who Indianapolis has already defeated once), while the Jaguars are sitting in last place at 4-6. The Colts host the Titans next week, while Houston draws Tennessee twice in the final three weeks of the season.
SERIES HISTORY
These division rivals hooked up three times last season as the road team won each time. Houston outlasted Indianapolis in overtime, 37-34 at Lucas Oil Stadium to pick up its first victory following an 0-3 start that spurred a nine-game winning streak. That hot stretch ended at NRG Stadium in Week 14 when the Colts held off the Texans, 24-21 as four-point underdogs, highlighted by 399 yards passing and two touchdowns from Andrew Luck.
In the Wild Card round, the Colts cruised past the AFC South champion Texans, 21-7 as 1 ?-point road underdogs. The top three offensive weapons from that game for Indianapolis that day (Luck, Mack, and T.Y. Hilton) are not available for Thursday, but the Colts are seeking the season sweep of the Texans for the first time since 2017.
The Colts held off the Texans in Week 7 as 1 ?-point favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium, 30-23 following the bye week. Brissett?s highest touchdown passing total of the season took place in that game (4), while throwing for a season-high 326 yards. Indianapolis built a 14-9 halftime lead before Brissett hooked up with tight end Eric Ebron on a four-yard touchdown pass early in the third quarter for a commanding 21-9 advantage. The Texans crept back within five points on a Watson touchdown connection with DeAndre Hopkins with 6:38 remaining in regulation, but that?s as close as Houston would get.
TOTAL TALK
After watching the ?over? connect in six straight primetime games in Week 9 and 10, the ?under? stormed back with a 3-0 mark in Week 11 and all of the results were never in doubt. For this week?s divisional matchup between the Colts and Texans, the total opened at 45 ? and most books are holding 45 as of Wednesday.
The ?over? (46 ?) cashed in the first matchup between the pair but that outcome could be considered an anomaly, since the ?under? was on a 5-1 run in the previous six meetings.
Chris David provides us with his thoughts on the first encounter, plus offers up his total lean for the rematch.
He said, ?What stands out from the first game is that both teams moved the football, combining for close to 400 yards of offense and 20-plus first downs. Both teams put up five scores and the difference came down to Houston kicking three field goals, while Indianapolis put four touchdowns and a late safety. The four scores for the Colts came from Brissett and that was a career record day for him. While Brissett has filled in the gap nicely for the previous QB that quit on the Colts, it?s still tough to trust him on the road. In 11 games outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, Indy has gone 3-8 with Brissett.?
Sticking with the numbers that CD mentioned, make a note that Brissett has gone 2-2 outside of Indy this season and he was knocked out early in a 28-26 loss at the Steelers in Week 9. Also, the other road win in his career came in 2017 at Houston but the Texans had Tom Savage at QB and he?s no longer in the NFL.
The Texans have watched the ?under? go 6-4 this season while the Colts have gone 6-4 to the ?over.? Over the past two seasons, Houston has been a great ?under? bet at home but David believes we should tread lightly on that trend.
?Houston has watched the ?under? go 3-1 at home this season and going back to the 2018 campaign, the low side is on a 9-4 (69%) run at NRG Stadium. Delving into those numbers further, the ?under? is 5-1 in divisional matchups but the Colts (24, 21) did manage to put up points in two wins. This year?s defense for the Texans has taken a step back due to injuries (J.J. Watt) and trades (Jadeveon Clowney). Fortunately for Houston, its offense has had to pick up the slack and it?s done so. In six wins, the club is averaging 29.5 PPG. And after losses, the team is averaging 31 PPG. The team total for Houston (25 ?) looks more than doable and I believe we?ll see more sixes instead of threes on Thursday,? added David.
HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs in on his thoughts regarding this matchup, ?In short, the statistics paint Houston as the much stronger offense while the Colts have the edge on defense. Houston is far more productive in the passing game gaining a full yard per pass attempt more than Indianapolis while also rushing for nearly a half yard more per carry. The Colts have effective defensive numbers against the run allowing just 97 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush while also allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and leaving opposing quarterbacks with lower ratings by nine points on average.?
Even though these teams own identical records, Nelson points out the Texans have endured a tougher schedule to this point, ?Houston has played the fifth-toughest schedule in the league compared to the #24 slate for the Colts. The difference so far has been facing the Ravens in the 1st place draw while already playing the Saints from the NFC South draw. The schedule gap will grow further next week when the Texans host the Patriots though the path in the final four weeks is manageable for Houston, still to play the Titans twice while also facing Denver and Tampa Bay.?
PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions ? Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 21 ? (-110)
Under 21 ? (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes ? Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 1 ? (-110)
Under 1 ? (-110)
Will Jacoby Brissett (IND) throw an interception?
Yes +105
Under -125
Total Receiving Yards ? Eric Ebron (IND)
Over 36 ? (-110)
Under 36 ? (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards ? Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 265 ? (-110)
Under 265 ? (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes ? Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 1 ? (-150)
Under 1 ? (+130)
Total Rushing Yards ? Carlos Hyde (HOU)
Over 69 ? (-110)
Under 69 ? (-110)
Total Receiving Yards ? DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Over 82 ? (-110)
Under 82 ? (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
On Tuesday November 12, the Westgate Superbook released early lines for the NFL as the Texans opened as a 5 ?-point favorite against the Colts. Following Sunday?s results, Houston dropped to a 3 ?-point favorite at the Westgate, while the total remained the same at 45 ?.
Favorites have posted a 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS mark in the last seven Thursday night games, but only two home teams have won and covered in the favorite role (Patriots in Week 6 and Browns in Week 11).
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) rebounded from a stunning loss as an 11-point underdog to the Dolphins the previous week to cruise past the Jaguars, 33-13 as 2 ?-point favorites. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett returned to the lineup for the Colts after missing the Miami game with a knee injury as threw for 148 yards and a touchdown, while running for another score.
Jacksonville scored the first touchdown of the game, but it was all Indianapolis after that as the Colts scored the next 31 points. The Colts torched the Jaguars on the ground by rushing for 264 yards on 36 carries, led by 116 yards from Jonathan Williams, who had rushed for 95 yards in his career prior to busting out on Sunday. Marlon Mack also hit the century mark on the ground as the Colts? running back racked up 109 yards and a touchdown, but left the game with a fractured hand and will miss several weeks.
The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) had an excellent opportunity to make a statement as one of the top teams in the AFC, but Houston?s offense could never get going in a 41-7 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore. The lone Texans? touchdown came on a 41-yard scamper from Carlos Hyde in the fourth quarter with Houston sitting in a 34-0 hole, as Deshaun Watson was limited to 169 yards passing. Watson has thrown for under 201 yards in four games this season, as Houston fell to 1-3 in those contests.
Houston?s defense allowed 263 yards rushing to Baltimore, as the Texans? first three losses came by a combined 11 points before losing by 34 last Sunday. The Texans fell to 3-3 ATS in the role of an underdog, while giving up its most points since yielding 41 points at Seattle in a three-point defeat in 2017. Houston?s pass defense has been lit up during the last six games by allowing 17 touchdown passes, including at least three passing touchdowns five times in this stretch.
MORE ON THAT LEAKY DEFENSE
Going further into that last nugget regarding the Texans and how opponents have torched them through the air lately is eye-opening. Baltimore?s Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes last week, the only aberration is Jacksonville?s Gardner Minshew, who failed to get the Jaguars in the end zone in a 26-3 setback in London to Houston. But Oakland?s Derek Carr posted three touchdown passes in a 27-24 defeat at Houston in Week 8, Brissett tossed four touchdowns in a seven-point win by the Colts in Week 7, Kansas City?s Patrick Mahomes put up three in Week 6, and Atlanta?s Matt Ryan threw three touchdowns in Week 5.
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
The Colts began the season with a pair of contests away from Lucas Oil Stadium by losing to the Chargers in overtime and edging the Titans. Since the bye week, Indianapolis has played four of five games at home, as the lone road affair came at Pittsburgh in a 26-24 defeat in Week 9. The Colts have split their four away contests, as every game has been decided by six points or fewer. Under head coach Frank Reich, the Colts own a 6-4-1 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog.
DIVISION IMPLICATIONS
Indianapolis is the only team in the AFC South to post a perfect record against division foes so far at 3-0. Houston has gone 2-1 inside the AFC South with both victories coming against Jacksonville and the loss coming to Indianapolis (more on that in a moment). Both the Colts and Texans own a one-game advantage over the Titans (who Indianapolis has already defeated once), while the Jaguars are sitting in last place at 4-6. The Colts host the Titans next week, while Houston draws Tennessee twice in the final three weeks of the season.
SERIES HISTORY
These division rivals hooked up three times last season as the road team won each time. Houston outlasted Indianapolis in overtime, 37-34 at Lucas Oil Stadium to pick up its first victory following an 0-3 start that spurred a nine-game winning streak. That hot stretch ended at NRG Stadium in Week 14 when the Colts held off the Texans, 24-21 as four-point underdogs, highlighted by 399 yards passing and two touchdowns from Andrew Luck.
In the Wild Card round, the Colts cruised past the AFC South champion Texans, 21-7 as 1 ?-point road underdogs. The top three offensive weapons from that game for Indianapolis that day (Luck, Mack, and T.Y. Hilton) are not available for Thursday, but the Colts are seeking the season sweep of the Texans for the first time since 2017.
The Colts held off the Texans in Week 7 as 1 ?-point favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium, 30-23 following the bye week. Brissett?s highest touchdown passing total of the season took place in that game (4), while throwing for a season-high 326 yards. Indianapolis built a 14-9 halftime lead before Brissett hooked up with tight end Eric Ebron on a four-yard touchdown pass early in the third quarter for a commanding 21-9 advantage. The Texans crept back within five points on a Watson touchdown connection with DeAndre Hopkins with 6:38 remaining in regulation, but that?s as close as Houston would get.
TOTAL TALK
After watching the ?over? connect in six straight primetime games in Week 9 and 10, the ?under? stormed back with a 3-0 mark in Week 11 and all of the results were never in doubt. For this week?s divisional matchup between the Colts and Texans, the total opened at 45 ? and most books are holding 45 as of Wednesday.
The ?over? (46 ?) cashed in the first matchup between the pair but that outcome could be considered an anomaly, since the ?under? was on a 5-1 run in the previous six meetings.
Chris David provides us with his thoughts on the first encounter, plus offers up his total lean for the rematch.
He said, ?What stands out from the first game is that both teams moved the football, combining for close to 400 yards of offense and 20-plus first downs. Both teams put up five scores and the difference came down to Houston kicking three field goals, while Indianapolis put four touchdowns and a late safety. The four scores for the Colts came from Brissett and that was a career record day for him. While Brissett has filled in the gap nicely for the previous QB that quit on the Colts, it?s still tough to trust him on the road. In 11 games outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, Indy has gone 3-8 with Brissett.?
Sticking with the numbers that CD mentioned, make a note that Brissett has gone 2-2 outside of Indy this season and he was knocked out early in a 28-26 loss at the Steelers in Week 9. Also, the other road win in his career came in 2017 at Houston but the Texans had Tom Savage at QB and he?s no longer in the NFL.
The Texans have watched the ?under? go 6-4 this season while the Colts have gone 6-4 to the ?over.? Over the past two seasons, Houston has been a great ?under? bet at home but David believes we should tread lightly on that trend.
?Houston has watched the ?under? go 3-1 at home this season and going back to the 2018 campaign, the low side is on a 9-4 (69%) run at NRG Stadium. Delving into those numbers further, the ?under? is 5-1 in divisional matchups but the Colts (24, 21) did manage to put up points in two wins. This year?s defense for the Texans has taken a step back due to injuries (J.J. Watt) and trades (Jadeveon Clowney). Fortunately for Houston, its offense has had to pick up the slack and it?s done so. In six wins, the club is averaging 29.5 PPG. And after losses, the team is averaging 31 PPG. The team total for Houston (25 ?) looks more than doable and I believe we?ll see more sixes instead of threes on Thursday,? added David.
HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs in on his thoughts regarding this matchup, ?In short, the statistics paint Houston as the much stronger offense while the Colts have the edge on defense. Houston is far more productive in the passing game gaining a full yard per pass attempt more than Indianapolis while also rushing for nearly a half yard more per carry. The Colts have effective defensive numbers against the run allowing just 97 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush while also allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and leaving opposing quarterbacks with lower ratings by nine points on average.?
Even though these teams own identical records, Nelson points out the Texans have endured a tougher schedule to this point, ?Houston has played the fifth-toughest schedule in the league compared to the #24 slate for the Colts. The difference so far has been facing the Ravens in the 1st place draw while already playing the Saints from the NFC South draw. The schedule gap will grow further next week when the Texans host the Patriots though the path in the final four weeks is manageable for Houston, still to play the Titans twice while also facing Denver and Tampa Bay.?
PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions ? Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 21 ? (-110)
Under 21 ? (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes ? Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 1 ? (-110)
Under 1 ? (-110)
Will Jacoby Brissett (IND) throw an interception?
Yes +105
Under -125
Total Receiving Yards ? Eric Ebron (IND)
Over 36 ? (-110)
Under 36 ? (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards ? Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 265 ? (-110)
Under 265 ? (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes ? Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 1 ? (-150)
Under 1 ? (+130)
Total Rushing Yards ? Carlos Hyde (HOU)
Over 69 ? (-110)
Under 69 ? (-110)
Total Receiving Yards ? DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Over 82 ? (-110)
Under 82 ? (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
On Tuesday November 12, the Westgate Superbook released early lines for the NFL as the Texans opened as a 5 ?-point favorite against the Colts. Following Sunday?s results, Houston dropped to a 3 ?-point favorite at the Westgate, while the total remained the same at 45 ?.
Favorites have posted a 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS mark in the last seven Thursday night games, but only two home teams have won and covered in the favorite role (Patriots in Week 6 and Browns in Week 11).
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by: Josh Inglis
JAGS TO FEATURE FOURNETTE
Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone believes that RB Leonard Fournette didn?t touch the ball enough last week in their loss to the Colts. The lead back, who had averaged 26 touches a game over his previous six contests, handled the ball just 15 times in Week 11 but game flow was a big reason for that.
The Jaguars should have a better time keeping the game close and allow Fournette to be an option in both the running and passing game as they visit the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has three wins in their last six games but has only won by three or four points in each of those games, meaning they aren?t blowing anyone out and forcing teams to abandon the run.
There is no reason that the Jacksonville RB can't rush the ball 17-20 times while chipping in half a dozen catches. With the Titans allowing four yards per carry and six yards per pass attempt to opposing RBs and Fournette averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per target, we can take the difference of those totals and see a 20-rush and seven-target day for Fournette working out to 127 total yards.
Take the Over on Fournette?s total yards of 113.5 yards.
FINGERS CROSSED FOR HILTON ON TNF
T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision for Thursday Night Football as the Colts lock horns with the Texans. The Colts receiver was sidelined in Tuesday?s practice but was a full participant on Wednesday ahead of their big divisional showdown with the Houston Texans.
Having Hilton in the lineup would be a godsend for Jacoby Brissett and the offense as the Texans secondary is in shambles with six players out or questionable. Houston will also be giving meaningful snaps to the recently released-then-signed CB Vernon Hargreaves.
In his 16 games against the Texans over his career, Hilton has 87 catches for 1,604 yards and 10 TDs ? that includes seven 100-yard games. No.1 WRs are putting up close to 80 yards per game against the Texans over the year.
If the wideout is declared active and his market opens closer to kick off, consider taking the Over on Hilton?s receiving total on any number below 81 yards.
DOLPHINS BACK TO THEIR OLD SELVES
The Miami Dolphins streak of five-straight wins against the spread is over after they got filled by the Buffalo Bills 37-20 last week. Buffalo had scored more than 21 points just twice in their last six games before the 37-point explosion. Our takeaway from that game: Miami is still a very bad football team.
On the offensive side of things, their current No.1 running back, Kalen Ballage, is averaging 1.9 yards per carry. That number is historically bad as it would be the worst mark in league history. The Dolphins offensive coordinator even put the blame on Ballage?s teammates and coaches, telling reporters that they needed to do better.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami just sent their two starting safeties to the I.R. This will only make the league's worst passing defense even worse heading into their Sunday contest against the Cleveland Browns.
Buffalo beat the Dolphins in every quarter last week, becoming the fourth team this year to do so. Over their eight losses this year, Miami has lost 26 of 32 quarters while winning just four.
With a price of +650, sign us up for the Browns winning every quarter Sunday.
TEXANS BURNED BY PASS-CATCHING RBS
Want another Thursday night play? How about a running back who is 15th in the league in receptions amongst RBs facing the league?s worst defense at defending passes against running backs?
Indianapolis? Nyheim Hines? role is consistent. The third-down back sees on average of four targets a game and may have an expanded role this week with the absence of Marlon Mack.
Hines has turned 11 targets into seven catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks but will have a chance to better those numbers against the Texans who give up 64 yards passing to opposing RBs this year and let non-pass catching Mark Ingram set a season-high in receiving yards last week with 37.
We think the total might be set a little high but feel that the Over is still the play, especially with a plus matchup and RB snaps up for grabs.
EASY PICKINGS
The New Orleans Saints forced four interceptions last week against the human turnover machine better known as Jameis Winston. This week the Saints get to face the Panthers and rookie QB Kyle Allen who threw four INTs himself last week and has thrown nine picks in his last four games.
Allen has been facing serious pressure making the young QB force some throws. His nine INTs were the product of 18 sacks as the Carolina offensive line has been getting dominated in November. Things will only get worse Sunday as the Saints? defense has the fourth-most sacks at home.
It is a juicy play but we feel confident in Allen throwing at least one interception. Take the Over on Allen?s 0.5 INTs.
JAGS TO FEATURE FOURNETTE
Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone believes that RB Leonard Fournette didn?t touch the ball enough last week in their loss to the Colts. The lead back, who had averaged 26 touches a game over his previous six contests, handled the ball just 15 times in Week 11 but game flow was a big reason for that.
The Jaguars should have a better time keeping the game close and allow Fournette to be an option in both the running and passing game as they visit the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has three wins in their last six games but has only won by three or four points in each of those games, meaning they aren?t blowing anyone out and forcing teams to abandon the run.
There is no reason that the Jacksonville RB can't rush the ball 17-20 times while chipping in half a dozen catches. With the Titans allowing four yards per carry and six yards per pass attempt to opposing RBs and Fournette averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per target, we can take the difference of those totals and see a 20-rush and seven-target day for Fournette working out to 127 total yards.
Take the Over on Fournette?s total yards of 113.5 yards.
FINGERS CROSSED FOR HILTON ON TNF
T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision for Thursday Night Football as the Colts lock horns with the Texans. The Colts receiver was sidelined in Tuesday?s practice but was a full participant on Wednesday ahead of their big divisional showdown with the Houston Texans.
Having Hilton in the lineup would be a godsend for Jacoby Brissett and the offense as the Texans secondary is in shambles with six players out or questionable. Houston will also be giving meaningful snaps to the recently released-then-signed CB Vernon Hargreaves.
In his 16 games against the Texans over his career, Hilton has 87 catches for 1,604 yards and 10 TDs ? that includes seven 100-yard games. No.1 WRs are putting up close to 80 yards per game against the Texans over the year.
If the wideout is declared active and his market opens closer to kick off, consider taking the Over on Hilton?s receiving total on any number below 81 yards.
DOLPHINS BACK TO THEIR OLD SELVES
The Miami Dolphins streak of five-straight wins against the spread is over after they got filled by the Buffalo Bills 37-20 last week. Buffalo had scored more than 21 points just twice in their last six games before the 37-point explosion. Our takeaway from that game: Miami is still a very bad football team.
On the offensive side of things, their current No.1 running back, Kalen Ballage, is averaging 1.9 yards per carry. That number is historically bad as it would be the worst mark in league history. The Dolphins offensive coordinator even put the blame on Ballage?s teammates and coaches, telling reporters that they needed to do better.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami just sent their two starting safeties to the I.R. This will only make the league's worst passing defense even worse heading into their Sunday contest against the Cleveland Browns.
Buffalo beat the Dolphins in every quarter last week, becoming the fourth team this year to do so. Over their eight losses this year, Miami has lost 26 of 32 quarters while winning just four.
With a price of +650, sign us up for the Browns winning every quarter Sunday.
TEXANS BURNED BY PASS-CATCHING RBS
Want another Thursday night play? How about a running back who is 15th in the league in receptions amongst RBs facing the league?s worst defense at defending passes against running backs?
Indianapolis? Nyheim Hines? role is consistent. The third-down back sees on average of four targets a game and may have an expanded role this week with the absence of Marlon Mack.
Hines has turned 11 targets into seven catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks but will have a chance to better those numbers against the Texans who give up 64 yards passing to opposing RBs this year and let non-pass catching Mark Ingram set a season-high in receiving yards last week with 37.
We think the total might be set a little high but feel that the Over is still the play, especially with a plus matchup and RB snaps up for grabs.
EASY PICKINGS
The New Orleans Saints forced four interceptions last week against the human turnover machine better known as Jameis Winston. This week the Saints get to face the Panthers and rookie QB Kyle Allen who threw four INTs himself last week and has thrown nine picks in his last four games.
Allen has been facing serious pressure making the young QB force some throws. His nine INTs were the product of 18 sacks as the Carolina offensive line has been getting dominated in November. Things will only get worse Sunday as the Saints? defense has the fourth-most sacks at home.
It is a juicy play but we feel confident in Allen throwing at least one interception. Take the Over on Allen?s 0.5 INTs.
Hopkins' 2 TDs help Texans top Colts
November 21, 2019
HOUSTON (AP) Deshaun Watson threw two touchdown passes to DeAndre Hopkins and finished with 298 yards to help the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 20-17 on Thursday night to take the AFC South lead.
The Texans (7-4), who were embarrassed by Baltimore 41-7 on Sunday, trailed by four early in the fourth quarter when Hopkins got in front of Pierre Desir and stretched out to haul in a 30-yard reception to give the Texans a 20-17 lead. The Texans got things going on that drive with a 33-yard run by Carlos Hyde.
Houston's defense stepped up after that, forcing a punt on the next drive before stopping the Colts (6-5) on fourth-and-7 with 3 minutes left. Jacoby Brissett threw for 129 yards, and came up a yard shy of a first down on Indy's fourth-down attempt late in the fourth quarter.
Hopkins finished with had 94 yards receiving and his first TD reception came on a 35-yards grab in the second quarter. Will Fuller, who returned after sitting out three games with a hamstring injury, had seven catches for 140 yards for the Texans.
T.Y. Hilton had topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games against the Texans and entered averaging 133.3 receiving yards in seven career games at NRG Stadium. He wasn't a factor, finishing with just 18 yards receiving in his return after missing three games with a calf injury.
There were about 6 minutes left in the third quarter when Jonathan Williams, who helped fill in for injured starter Marlon Mack, wriggled away from three defenders and dashed 13 yards for a touchdown to put the Colts up 17-10.
Fuller had a 51-yard reception on the first play of Houston's next drive, but the Texans couldn't move the ball after that and settled for a 36-yard field goal to cut the lead to four.
The Texans led 3-0 after a field goal early in the second quarter.
There were about 8 minutes left in the second when Kenny Moore tipped a pass from Watson and intercepted it. It was the first time Watson had thrown an interception at home since Oct. 14, 2018, against the Bills, a streak of 303 attempts which was the longest active run in the NFL.
The Colts cashed in on the mistake when Brissett scrambled 5 yards for a touchdown to make it 7-3.
There were 2 minutes left in the first half when Watson avoided the rush and found Hopkins wide open in the end zone for a 35-yard touchdown pass to put Houston back on top 10-7.
Indianapolis added a field goal at the end of the first half to leave it tied at 10l at halftime.
INJURIES
Houston ILB Dylan Cole injured his calf in the second half and didn't return. ... Texans DE Carlos Watkins left in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury.
UP NEXT
Colts: Host Tennessee on Dec. 1.
Texans: Host New England on Dec. 1.
November 21, 2019
HOUSTON (AP) Deshaun Watson threw two touchdown passes to DeAndre Hopkins and finished with 298 yards to help the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 20-17 on Thursday night to take the AFC South lead.
The Texans (7-4), who were embarrassed by Baltimore 41-7 on Sunday, trailed by four early in the fourth quarter when Hopkins got in front of Pierre Desir and stretched out to haul in a 30-yard reception to give the Texans a 20-17 lead. The Texans got things going on that drive with a 33-yard run by Carlos Hyde.
Houston's defense stepped up after that, forcing a punt on the next drive before stopping the Colts (6-5) on fourth-and-7 with 3 minutes left. Jacoby Brissett threw for 129 yards, and came up a yard shy of a first down on Indy's fourth-down attempt late in the fourth quarter.
Hopkins finished with had 94 yards receiving and his first TD reception came on a 35-yards grab in the second quarter. Will Fuller, who returned after sitting out three games with a hamstring injury, had seven catches for 140 yards for the Texans.
T.Y. Hilton had topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games against the Texans and entered averaging 133.3 receiving yards in seven career games at NRG Stadium. He wasn't a factor, finishing with just 18 yards receiving in his return after missing three games with a calf injury.
There were about 6 minutes left in the third quarter when Jonathan Williams, who helped fill in for injured starter Marlon Mack, wriggled away from three defenders and dashed 13 yards for a touchdown to put the Colts up 17-10.
Fuller had a 51-yard reception on the first play of Houston's next drive, but the Texans couldn't move the ball after that and settled for a 36-yard field goal to cut the lead to four.
The Texans led 3-0 after a field goal early in the second quarter.
There were about 8 minutes left in the second when Kenny Moore tipped a pass from Watson and intercepted it. It was the first time Watson had thrown an interception at home since Oct. 14, 2018, against the Bills, a streak of 303 attempts which was the longest active run in the NFL.
The Colts cashed in on the mistake when Brissett scrambled 5 yards for a touchdown to make it 7-3.
There were 2 minutes left in the first half when Watson avoided the rush and found Hopkins wide open in the end zone for a 35-yard touchdown pass to put Houston back on top 10-7.
Indianapolis added a field goal at the end of the first half to leave it tied at 10l at halftime.
INJURIES
Houston ILB Dylan Cole injured his calf in the second half and didn't return. ... Texans DE Carlos Watkins left in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury.
UP NEXT
Colts: Host Tennessee on Dec. 1.
Texans: Host New England on Dec. 1.
NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/21/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%..........-0.50
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................31-39-1.........44.28%..........-65.00
*****************************
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/21/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................13 - 17..........-28.50............13 - 19..............-49.50...........-78.00
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/21/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%..........-0.50
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................31-39-1.........44.28%..........-65.00
*****************************
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/21/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................13 - 17..........-28.50............13 - 19..............-49.50...........-78.00
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson
New England went to the effort of listing Tom Brady (elbow) as questionable for Sunday's home game against Dallas. The SuperBook isn't buying it, though, with the Patriots still 6-point favorites.
NFL Week 12 will without a doubt include Tom Brady on the field, despite a late-week head fake from the Patriots. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Among a lengthy Patriots injury list out Friday was Tom Brady?s name, noting the star quarterback was questionable with an elbow issue. New England dipped from -6.5 to -6 for its clash with visiting Dallas, but Osterman said that wasn?t due to Brady?s status. ?The Patriots like to list a lot of guys questionable. We fully expect Brady to play.?
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mike Tomlin?s troops face a skill-position shortage, as wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) will sit out at Cincinnati. ?Those were both expected, but once it became 100 percent known, the line dropped a half-point.? The Steelers are still -6.5 (-120) against the winless Bengals.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Along with the suspensions of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi for their roles in last week?s brawl against Pittsburgh, fellow defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) is also out against visiting Miami. But Osterman said that didn?t impact the line, which has been at Browns -10.5 almost all week.
ATLANTA FALCONS: Devonta Freeman (foot) won?t play at home against Tampa Bay, but it?s another instance of an expected absence and had no impact on the line. Atlanta is laying 3.5.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Tight end George Kittle (knee/ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable Sunday against visiting Green Bay. If Kittle plays, ?It?s maybe a 10-cent move. We would go from -3.5 (even) to -3.5 (-110).? However, wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also questionable. ?If more than one of those three is out, I could see a half-point move.?
DETROIT LIONS: QB Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his third straight game, but Jeff Driskel starting was baked into the cake from the moment the Lions were posted -3.5 at Washington. The SuperBook briefly went to -3, but has been at -3.5 since Monday morning.
Weather Watch
OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: Pretty much every game in the Northeast on Sunday is looking at rain. In this instance, there?s a 100 percent chance of precipitation at MetLife Stadium. ?The total has come down 1.5 points because of the rain forecast.? The total was at 46.5 Friday.
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Similar story, with a 90 percent chance of rain in Philly, prompting The SuperBook to drop the total from 49 to 48.
DALLAS AT NEW ENGLAND: Again, if it?s in the Northeast, it?s probably going to see rain, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. The total adjusted down 1.5 points to 44.5.
MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: It could be a little tough sledding for the warm-weather Dolphins, with temperatures in the low-40s and winds at 15 mph, but that?s not swaying oddsmakers. ?No effect from the weather.? Rather, the total is up 1 point to 45.5 due to public money on the Over.
DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: This game might dodge the downpours expected throughout the Northeast, but some pregame rain could hit FedEx Field. ?I would expect a small move if the field is affected, but most likely no move.?
Pros vs. Joes
DENVER AT BUFFALO: After covering at Minnesota last week, the Broncos are again drawing sharp action. ?Pros on the Broncos, public on the Bills.? Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite.
OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: The aforementioned weather could help keep this game tight, with the Raiders laying 3. Sharp play is on the short home ?dog, while the public is on Oakland.
GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: ?Pros are on the 49ers, and the public is on the Packers,? Osterman said of the Sunday night game. San Francisco opened -3.5, reached -4, dipped to -3, then got back to -3.5.
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles opened -2.5, but Seahawks money took the line to Philly -1. ?Pros are on the Eagles, and the public is on the Seahawks. The line moved in favor of the public. A lot of ?Hawks money coming in.?
BALTIMORE AT LOS ANGELES: The Ravens opened -2.5, briefly got to -3.5 Monday, then spent the rest of the week at -3. ?The public is all over the Ravens. The pros are on the Rams.?
Reverse Line Moves
DENVER AT BUFFALO: The Bills dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, but they are taking the bulk of the action, with sharp play on Denver driving the number down.
Patrick Everson
New England went to the effort of listing Tom Brady (elbow) as questionable for Sunday's home game against Dallas. The SuperBook isn't buying it, though, with the Patriots still 6-point favorites.
NFL Week 12 will without a doubt include Tom Brady on the field, despite a late-week head fake from the Patriots. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Among a lengthy Patriots injury list out Friday was Tom Brady?s name, noting the star quarterback was questionable with an elbow issue. New England dipped from -6.5 to -6 for its clash with visiting Dallas, but Osterman said that wasn?t due to Brady?s status. ?The Patriots like to list a lot of guys questionable. We fully expect Brady to play.?
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mike Tomlin?s troops face a skill-position shortage, as wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) will sit out at Cincinnati. ?Those were both expected, but once it became 100 percent known, the line dropped a half-point.? The Steelers are still -6.5 (-120) against the winless Bengals.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Along with the suspensions of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi for their roles in last week?s brawl against Pittsburgh, fellow defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) is also out against visiting Miami. But Osterman said that didn?t impact the line, which has been at Browns -10.5 almost all week.
ATLANTA FALCONS: Devonta Freeman (foot) won?t play at home against Tampa Bay, but it?s another instance of an expected absence and had no impact on the line. Atlanta is laying 3.5.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Tight end George Kittle (knee/ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable Sunday against visiting Green Bay. If Kittle plays, ?It?s maybe a 10-cent move. We would go from -3.5 (even) to -3.5 (-110).? However, wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also questionable. ?If more than one of those three is out, I could see a half-point move.?
DETROIT LIONS: QB Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his third straight game, but Jeff Driskel starting was baked into the cake from the moment the Lions were posted -3.5 at Washington. The SuperBook briefly went to -3, but has been at -3.5 since Monday morning.
Weather Watch
OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: Pretty much every game in the Northeast on Sunday is looking at rain. In this instance, there?s a 100 percent chance of precipitation at MetLife Stadium. ?The total has come down 1.5 points because of the rain forecast.? The total was at 46.5 Friday.
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Similar story, with a 90 percent chance of rain in Philly, prompting The SuperBook to drop the total from 49 to 48.
DALLAS AT NEW ENGLAND: Again, if it?s in the Northeast, it?s probably going to see rain, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. The total adjusted down 1.5 points to 44.5.
MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: It could be a little tough sledding for the warm-weather Dolphins, with temperatures in the low-40s and winds at 15 mph, but that?s not swaying oddsmakers. ?No effect from the weather.? Rather, the total is up 1 point to 45.5 due to public money on the Over.
DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: This game might dodge the downpours expected throughout the Northeast, but some pregame rain could hit FedEx Field. ?I would expect a small move if the field is affected, but most likely no move.?
Pros vs. Joes
DENVER AT BUFFALO: After covering at Minnesota last week, the Broncos are again drawing sharp action. ?Pros on the Broncos, public on the Bills.? Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite.
OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: The aforementioned weather could help keep this game tight, with the Raiders laying 3. Sharp play is on the short home ?dog, while the public is on Oakland.
GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: ?Pros are on the 49ers, and the public is on the Packers,? Osterman said of the Sunday night game. San Francisco opened -3.5, reached -4, dipped to -3, then got back to -3.5.
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles opened -2.5, but Seahawks money took the line to Philly -1. ?Pros are on the Eagles, and the public is on the Seahawks. The line moved in favor of the public. A lot of ?Hawks money coming in.?
BALTIMORE AT LOS ANGELES: The Ravens opened -2.5, briefly got to -3.5 Monday, then spent the rest of the week at -3. ?The public is all over the Ravens. The pros are on the Rams.?
Reverse Line Moves
DENVER AT BUFFALO: The Bills dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, but they are taking the bulk of the action, with sharp play on Denver driving the number down.
Total Talk - Week 12
Joe Williams
It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets
What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.
2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4
The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.
The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4).
Division Bell
In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.
Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ? to 51 ?
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ?
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ?
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ? to 40 ?
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ? to 40 ?
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ? to 40 ?
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.
Handicapping Week 12
Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22
Other Week 12 Action
Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.
Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.
Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.
Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.
Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.
Heavy Expectations
There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ? and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.
Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.
Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win.
Under the Lights
Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home, with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.
Joe Williams
It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets
What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.
2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4
The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.
The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4).
Division Bell
In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.
Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ? to 51 ?
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ?
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ?
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ? to 40 ?
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ? to 40 ?
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ? to 40 ?
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.
Handicapping Week 12
Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22
Other Week 12 Action
Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.
Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.
Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.
Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.
Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.
Heavy Expectations
There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ? and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.
Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.
Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win.
Under the Lights
Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home, with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.
Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (14.09 ppg) since Sep 24, 2017 after a game in which they had zero turnovers.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a win.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (8.07 ppg) since Jan 15, 2017 coming off a home game where Davante Adams had at least a 30 yard reception.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0-1 OU (11.88 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a road dog after a game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-10 OU (-13.35 ppg) since Sep 20, 2012 off a game as a favorite that went over the total by at least seven points.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-9.92 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored ten-plus points fewer than their seasonto-date average and had less than 34 minutes of possession time.
Vince Akins
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (14.09 ppg) since Sep 24, 2017 after a game in which they had zero turnovers.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a win.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (8.07 ppg) since Jan 15, 2017 coming off a home game where Davante Adams had at least a 30 yard reception.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0-1 OU (11.88 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a road dog after a game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-10 OU (-13.35 ppg) since Sep 20, 2012 off a game as a favorite that went over the total by at least seven points.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-9.92 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored ten-plus points fewer than their seasonto-date average and had less than 34 minutes of possession time.
SNF - Packers at 49ers
Matt Blunt
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
It was nice to get back in the win column with the L.A. Rams covering the number against Chicago last Sunday night. It wasn't the prettiest of games by any means as neither offense really did much of anything in the 17-7 final, but ATS wins are ATS wins no matter how you get them.
This week the SNF team gets a potential NFC Championship preview-type game with Green Bay in San Francisco to take on the 49ers. You've got QB Aaron Rodgers back in his home state of California, and two teams who could end up with home field advantage through the playoffs based on winning this game.
With the stakes surrounding this game, there will likely be no shortage of opinions (or action) as the week goes on for such a big game, as both teams are likely to use it as a nice measuring stick type game for them as we head to December. But the question really is, can Green Bay go into San Francisco and knock off this 49ers team that's been spectacular at home.
San Fran owns a +77 point differential at home, largely in part to their 2nd ranked defense this year in both opponent yards allowed per game and opponent yards allowed per play. That's what Aaron Rodgers and company have to contend with, and given that the last time Green Bay was in California ? two weeks ago vs LA Chargers ? it was an utter debacle offensively, will history repeat? I mean, SF has highly talented pass rushers too and that was what led the Chargers to such much success that day.
Total Talk
After opening up at 45.5 late on Sunday, this total has really seen nothing but 'over' support since then. As of this writing, it's currently sitting at 47.5 juiced to the 'over', and given the profile of these two teams, it's easy to want to trust both offenses. Both teams currently sit in the Top 10 in the league ? SF (2nd) and GB (9th) ? in points per game with 29.5 and 25 respectively, that the opening total here was probably a touch too low. But all the value from that number has long been extracted, and the number has held pretty steady at 47.5 since Wednesday morning.
At 47.5, the number does appear to be about where it should be. Yes, the combined average point totals for these two teams puts this game close to 55 total points scored, but I would expect both sides to be looking to be strong defensively from the get-go. The stakes of the game lend themselves to that notion, as even though both teams would likely say they are fine with getting in a 34-31 type game, they wouldn't prefer it.
San Francisco's 4-0 O/U run coming into this game would suggest that 'over' is the way to look, especially with the defense allowing 25+ in three straight games. But the Packers come in off of two straight 'unders' themselves where the total score didn't eclipse 40 points can't be dismissed either. Put the entire situation of this game together, and passing on this total now appears to be the best course of action.
Side Spiel
San Francisco has been installed as the generic -3 home favorite for this game and that's where the number has stayed all week. The price has fluctuated on the 49ers, but I wouldn't expect this number to move much. That's because at -2.5 you are likely to see plenty of SF money hit the board, while at +3.5 there would likely be Green Bay money flooding in. Just another example of how important it is to bet numbers and bet teams. Yet, to me, this is a line that's much better to be approached from a spot betting perspective, and that spot does favor the Packers.
Actually, it's more of a spot that's against the 49ers in that fading a team after three straight division games is something that makes a lot of sense. Generally speaking, teams are going to naturally have a 'let down' after nearly a month of intense divisional action, but given that it is 8-2 SU Green Bay on the other side of the field, a complete flat effort from the 49ers isn't likely. But even just a bit flat early could have San Francisco chasing this game the entire way, and if that's the case, I'm not sure the 49ers will last.
This is essentially the fourth straight game where high stress/pressure are involved for the 49ers, and eventually every team needs a mental rest spot. There was the closer then expected game at Arizona on Halloween, followed by the OT loss to Seattle, and then last week's wild comeback against that same Cardinals team, with road games at Baltimore and at New Orleans on tap for the 49ers, there is going to be one of those 'dud' games for them in one of those three in my opinion, and teams do tend to be more complacent about things when at home. Whether it's physical or the mental prep side of things for the 49ers, that's not good for a team that's already spent the past three weeks struggling to hold on (or claim) outright victories.
At the same time, you know Rodgers would love to come 'home' to the Bay area and light up a 9-1 49ers team. San Francisco is part of the ?new guard? in 2019 as it's their first time winning games in a few years, whereas the Packers have been perennial contenders the entire Rodgers era. This win probably means a bit more to Rodgers and company who want to prove they are just as good as the best, and home field advantage at Lambeau Field in January is always a huge edge.
I would figure that the Packers learned from their mistakes going to L.A. a few weeks ago (late travel time, bad sleep schedules, personal schedules etc) and be much better from the opening kickoff here. Obviously a later start helps that play out, and if they can keep San Fran's pass rushers in check with a serviceable running attack, it's not like Rodgers isn't capable of tearing apart this 49ers secondary.
Final Thoughts
A 0-2-1 ATS record combined with all 'overs' in those games for the 49ers coming into this week is a sign to me that they are a team that's playing with too much fire right now. Defensively they are getting hurt, offensively they are letting teams hang around, and they are just making more mistakes overall right now then they were earlier in the year. It didn't cost them wins in those two games vs Arizona and a rookie head coach/rookie QB combo, but it will probably cost them a win this week vs a rookie head coach/Hall-of-Fame QB.
Green Bay is in just as tight a divisional race themselves as the 49ers are in the NFC West, and given how the perception around the Packers 8-2 SU record still has an aura of being rather 'lucky' ? they were gifted calls vs Detroit on MNF, Oakland coughed up what was a close game with GB at half, they caught KC without Mahomes, McCaffrey might have been in the end zone last week etc etc ? they've arguably got more to prove with a win here.
I believe the Packers get that win here, and extend their 5-0 ATS run against winning teams to six straight covers.
Best Bet: Green Bay +3
Matt Blunt
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
It was nice to get back in the win column with the L.A. Rams covering the number against Chicago last Sunday night. It wasn't the prettiest of games by any means as neither offense really did much of anything in the 17-7 final, but ATS wins are ATS wins no matter how you get them.
This week the SNF team gets a potential NFC Championship preview-type game with Green Bay in San Francisco to take on the 49ers. You've got QB Aaron Rodgers back in his home state of California, and two teams who could end up with home field advantage through the playoffs based on winning this game.
With the stakes surrounding this game, there will likely be no shortage of opinions (or action) as the week goes on for such a big game, as both teams are likely to use it as a nice measuring stick type game for them as we head to December. But the question really is, can Green Bay go into San Francisco and knock off this 49ers team that's been spectacular at home.
San Fran owns a +77 point differential at home, largely in part to their 2nd ranked defense this year in both opponent yards allowed per game and opponent yards allowed per play. That's what Aaron Rodgers and company have to contend with, and given that the last time Green Bay was in California ? two weeks ago vs LA Chargers ? it was an utter debacle offensively, will history repeat? I mean, SF has highly talented pass rushers too and that was what led the Chargers to such much success that day.
Total Talk
After opening up at 45.5 late on Sunday, this total has really seen nothing but 'over' support since then. As of this writing, it's currently sitting at 47.5 juiced to the 'over', and given the profile of these two teams, it's easy to want to trust both offenses. Both teams currently sit in the Top 10 in the league ? SF (2nd) and GB (9th) ? in points per game with 29.5 and 25 respectively, that the opening total here was probably a touch too low. But all the value from that number has long been extracted, and the number has held pretty steady at 47.5 since Wednesday morning.
At 47.5, the number does appear to be about where it should be. Yes, the combined average point totals for these two teams puts this game close to 55 total points scored, but I would expect both sides to be looking to be strong defensively from the get-go. The stakes of the game lend themselves to that notion, as even though both teams would likely say they are fine with getting in a 34-31 type game, they wouldn't prefer it.
San Francisco's 4-0 O/U run coming into this game would suggest that 'over' is the way to look, especially with the defense allowing 25+ in three straight games. But the Packers come in off of two straight 'unders' themselves where the total score didn't eclipse 40 points can't be dismissed either. Put the entire situation of this game together, and passing on this total now appears to be the best course of action.
Side Spiel
San Francisco has been installed as the generic -3 home favorite for this game and that's where the number has stayed all week. The price has fluctuated on the 49ers, but I wouldn't expect this number to move much. That's because at -2.5 you are likely to see plenty of SF money hit the board, while at +3.5 there would likely be Green Bay money flooding in. Just another example of how important it is to bet numbers and bet teams. Yet, to me, this is a line that's much better to be approached from a spot betting perspective, and that spot does favor the Packers.
Actually, it's more of a spot that's against the 49ers in that fading a team after three straight division games is something that makes a lot of sense. Generally speaking, teams are going to naturally have a 'let down' after nearly a month of intense divisional action, but given that it is 8-2 SU Green Bay on the other side of the field, a complete flat effort from the 49ers isn't likely. But even just a bit flat early could have San Francisco chasing this game the entire way, and if that's the case, I'm not sure the 49ers will last.
This is essentially the fourth straight game where high stress/pressure are involved for the 49ers, and eventually every team needs a mental rest spot. There was the closer then expected game at Arizona on Halloween, followed by the OT loss to Seattle, and then last week's wild comeback against that same Cardinals team, with road games at Baltimore and at New Orleans on tap for the 49ers, there is going to be one of those 'dud' games for them in one of those three in my opinion, and teams do tend to be more complacent about things when at home. Whether it's physical or the mental prep side of things for the 49ers, that's not good for a team that's already spent the past three weeks struggling to hold on (or claim) outright victories.
At the same time, you know Rodgers would love to come 'home' to the Bay area and light up a 9-1 49ers team. San Francisco is part of the ?new guard? in 2019 as it's their first time winning games in a few years, whereas the Packers have been perennial contenders the entire Rodgers era. This win probably means a bit more to Rodgers and company who want to prove they are just as good as the best, and home field advantage at Lambeau Field in January is always a huge edge.
I would figure that the Packers learned from their mistakes going to L.A. a few weeks ago (late travel time, bad sleep schedules, personal schedules etc) and be much better from the opening kickoff here. Obviously a later start helps that play out, and if they can keep San Fran's pass rushers in check with a serviceable running attack, it's not like Rodgers isn't capable of tearing apart this 49ers secondary.
Final Thoughts
A 0-2-1 ATS record combined with all 'overs' in those games for the 49ers coming into this week is a sign to me that they are a team that's playing with too much fire right now. Defensively they are getting hurt, offensively they are letting teams hang around, and they are just making more mistakes overall right now then they were earlier in the year. It didn't cost them wins in those two games vs Arizona and a rookie head coach/rookie QB combo, but it will probably cost them a win this week vs a rookie head coach/Hall-of-Fame QB.
Green Bay is in just as tight a divisional race themselves as the 49ers are in the NFC West, and given how the perception around the Packers 8-2 SU record still has an aura of being rather 'lucky' ? they were gifted calls vs Detroit on MNF, Oakland coughed up what was a close game with GB at half, they caught KC without Mahomes, McCaffrey might have been in the end zone last week etc etc ? they've arguably got more to prove with a win here.
I believe the Packers get that win here, and extend their 5-0 ATS run against winning teams to six straight covers.
Best Bet: Green Bay +3
