CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Jags QB Minshew prepares for 1st NFL start
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Though Deshaun Watson has been Houston's starting quarterback for a while now, he vividly remembers being thrown into action midgame as a rookie in the team's opener, just as Jacksonville's Gardner Minshew was last week.

Watson came off the bench in Houston's first game in 2017 after Tom Savage struggled and he became the team's starter after that. Minshew, a sixth-round draft pick, was forced to take over for the Jaguars last Sunday when Nick Foles broke his collarbone in the first quarter.

As Houston prepares to meet Jacksonville on Sunday in Minshew's first NFL start, Watson compared has debut in that opener to how things were the following week when he started.

''It's just a different energy coming off the bench to (playing) when everyone has been focused on you,'' Watson said. ''The tape and everyone's been focused on everything that you're good at, what your weaknesses are, throughout the week. They have all days to focus on those things and try to put a game plan around you, and ... it's hard to really explain unless you're in that position. It's a different type of feel.''

Minshew looked good last week against Kansas City, completing his first 13 passes and finishing 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the 40-26 loss.

Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone was impressed with Minshew's performance and poise in his debut, but knows things will be tougher against a Texans team looking to bounce back from a wild 30-28 loss to New Orleans.

''The challenge is, `Hey listen, we have to repeat this. Where are we going to go?' There are some people who will question whether he can keep it up,'' Marron said. '''Do you think he can do that again?' I think that's the challenge, but the one thing I do know about the kid is that he will work his butt off this week, and he will do everything he possibly can, which you appreciate. I think he will have confidence and I think our opponent will be trying to knock the confidence out of him.''

Now that he knows starting he's trying to keep the same mindset he's always had.

''Just like any other week,'' Minshew said. ''Trying to be the best I can for the team. The role changes, but the approach doesn't.''

Some things to know about the Jaguars-Texans game:

ZEROES FOR WATT

Last week was the first time in 105 career games when three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt did not have a tackle or quarterback hit. The defensive end was asked if he was surprised to have zeroes across his stat line for the first time in his illustrious career.

''No,'' he said. ''I've had bad games before and I'll have bad games again. People like to focus on it, and I don't blame them. I understand. But I'm focused on Jacksonville. It's my job to go out there and not do that again, so that's what I'll do.''

Watt has had plenty of success against the Jaguars and has 16 career sacks against them, his second most against any team.

SACKSONVILLE?

Jacksonville failed to sack Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes last week, and then defensive ends Calais Campbell (foot) and Yannick Ngakoue (hamstring) showed up on the injury report. It's not the ideal start for a team built around its defensive front. But the Jaguars have had success against Houston in recent years, making a combined 21 sacks in the last four meetings. Most of those came against Watson.

''He is a very special quarterback, so it's important for us to make him uncomfortable,'' Campbell said. ''That might give us our best chance to stop him. But the Saints got to him six times and still that last drive was incredible, spectacular.

''It's just continuous pursuit,'' he continued. ''You can never be satisfied. If you get there six times, you need to get there seven. He's incredible.''

HOPKINS VS. RAMSEY

The matchup between Houston receiver DeAndre Hopkins and Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey has become one of the more entertaining in the league. Ramsey has slowed Hopkins in some of the meetings and limited him to 50 yards in the first matchup last season. But Hopkins got the best of Ramsey in their last game when he caught a career-high 12 passes and finished with 147 yards receiving in a 20-3 win in December.

INJURY WOES

The Jaguars have had an unusual run of key injuries in season openers.

Running back Chris Ivory, one of the team's top free agents in 2016, was hospitalized before the 2016 opener with a ''general medical issue'' and missed several games. Receiver Allen Robinson tore knee ligaments in the 2017 opener and missed the rest of the season. Running back Leonard Fournette strained a hamstring in the 2018 opener and was sidelined for six of the next seven games. And now Foles is out indefinitely with a broken collarbone.

''Hopefully we've learned to handle adversity,'' receiver Marqise Lee said.

 

[Cnotes53]

Dak leads Cowboys vs. Keenum's 'Skins
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

LANDOVER, Md. (AP) The same day one quarterback passed for 405 yards and four touchdowns, another threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns.

They'll meet Sunday, but couldn't be in more different positions. Dak Prescott is on the verge of a contract extension with the Dallas Cowboys that could guarantee him over $30 million, while Case Keenum is a temporary placeholder for the Washington Redskins until first-round pick Dwayne Haskins is ready.

Prescott leads the favored Cowboys into the Redskins' home opener fresh off a perfect 158.3 QB rating in a Week 1 rout of the New York Giants that took pressure off running back Ezekiel Elliott. Owner Jerry Jones called a new contract for Prescott ''imminent,'' but the fourth-year signal caller is focusing on Washington and not looking back.

''I'm so on to the Redskins at this point that I'm off of that game,'' Prescott said. ''You can't sit back and hang your hat on something like that or hang your hat on one game. It was a good performance for us to go out and do that in the passing game, obviously win that game the way that we did, but it's about turning the page.''

Prescott faces a defense that could be without lineman Jonathan Allen, weakening a front seven that should've been able to put more pressure on the pocket than the Giants did. Washington struggled at that against Carson Wentz, too, when Allen left with a knee injury, and getting to Prescott is the only way to keep him from throwing wild.

''You stand back there in the pocket all day and go through your first, second and third reads and come back to your first one, OK, cool. Anybody can do that,'' Redskins cornerback Josh Norman said. ''At the end of the day, he's been playing well. As you can see, he's evolved. He's growing in the system. He's just taking his keys and picking his targets and throwing the ball on time.''

Keenum found tight end Vernon Davis for 48 yards and rookie receiver Terry McLaurin for 69 yards on touchdown passes in the 32-27 season opening loss . He was largely done in by a lack of an effective running game, which will look very different this week with Adrian Peterson back from a healthy scratch and Derrius Guice on the shelf after knee surgery .

''I don't think we skip a beat with whoever is in there,'' Keenum said.

REED TIME

The Redskins are expected to have Jordan Reed back after their top tight end missed the opener with a concussion. Washington put Reed insurance J.P. Holtz on waivers and lost him to Chicago, and Reed is trending toward being in the lineup Sunday.

''Obviously, he's been a great player for them for a number of years,'' Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said. ''He's a mismatch player in the passing game. He's just really hard to cover and can run a variety of routes. He can beat you in a lot of different ways. So he's a great challenge.''

ZEKE'S LOAD

Elliott says he's ready for a "normal workload" after getting about half of the touches he's used to in the opener. The two-time rushing champion missed the entire preseason in a holdout. His first practice was four days before the 35-17 win over the Giants, the same day he signed a $90 million, six-year extension.

Elliott, who averaged 25 touches per game his first three seasons, had 13 carries for 53 yards and one catch for 10 against New York. He tried to stay in shape in Mexico during a holdout that ended on its 41st day.

''There is a difference between going out there running around and not being hit and then being hit and having to come back and do the same things,'' Elliott said. ''So being hit takes a little more out of you. But I think I'm good.''

STILL NO TRENT

The Redskins will be without Trent Williams yet again as the starting left tackle's holdout continues. Peterson, who co-owns a Houston gym with Williams, didn't get a chance to see his good friend last week but has stayed in touch.

''I wish I would see more of him,'' Peterson said. ''I've talked to him, but it wasn't even about football. Just life, checking in, what he had going and a couple things around the gym, but that's about it.''

EASING BACK IN

The Cowboys had four defensive starters miss all four preseason games while also getting limited work in practice. Each played less than half of the opener, led by star DeMarcus Lawrence (shoulder surgery) at 46% of the snaps.

Fellow defensive end Tyrone Crawford (hip injury), cornerback Byron Jones (hip surgery) and linebacker Sean Lee (knee injury early in training camp) are the others easing their way back, with the Cowboys having to decide how much more playing time they get.

''I don't feel like I'm still all the way back,'' said Lawrence, who had half of Dallas' only sack of Eli Manning. ''It's so much that comes into this game that you have really go through the drills every day in order to get the feel for it. Feel like I'm getting my legs back underneath me, but it's still not good enough yet.''

SPREADING IT AROUND

Even with limited carries, Elliott is helping the passing game with his presence. Prescott had five completions of 25 yards or longer involving four receivers against the Giants.

Michael Gallup, who had career highs of seven catches for 158 yards, was the only one of the four without a touchdown. But the second-year player was also the only one with multiple catches of 25-plus yards, including the longest at 62 to set up Elliott's 10-yard touchdown.

Amari Cooper had a 45-yard catch and a 21-yard TD, while Randall Cobb (25 yards) and tight end Blake Jarwin (28) were wide open on their touchdowns

''I think that's like a defense's worst nightmare when everybody is making plays,'' said Cooper, who had 106 yards on six catches. ''How can you game plan against that? How can you make adjustments? What are you going to do?''

 

[Cnotes53]

Pack's revamped D out to slow Vikes' Cook
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) The Green Bay Packers strolled into Chicago for the season opener boasting a revamped defense with several expensive additions, and suffocated quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears' offense.

Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine's unit will see an entirely different challenge in running back Dalvin Cook on Sunday when the Packers (1-0) host the Minnesota Vikings (1-0), another NFC North foe.

Cook rushed for 111 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries against the Atlanta Falcons last week. It was the third-year back's third 100-yard outing in his 16th career game.

''Yeah, the run game, I mean it all starts, that running back, he's an elite runner,'' Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. ''Dalvin Cook's an elite runner, and they did a nice job up front. They took it to Atlanta, quite frankly, last week.''

When healthy, Cook has proven to be one of the prime runners in the league. But staying healthy has been the biggest challenge of Cook's young career.

Cook, a 2017 second-round pick, played only four games as a rookie, suffering a torn ACL. Cook battled injury again last season, missing a chunk after a hamstring injury in a 29-29 tie at Lambeau Field in Week 2.

Cook said he's not thinking about last season's injury or last season's tie.

''Different team, different mindset, different coaches, everything's different,'' he said. ''You've got to expect different things. I can't really talk about what we did last year.''

The Packers allowed just 46 yards on the ground in the opener, with inside linebacker Blake Martinez leading the team with five tackles and a sack. Outside linebackers Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith and safety Adrian Amos, all acquired in March through free agency, combined for five tackles, 2+ sacks and an interception. The Smiths combined for 10 total quarterback pressures; Za'Darius Smith had six, which leads the league.

''The guys that they brought in are pretty good players,'' Cook said of the Green Bay defense. ''They kind of added some rangy, long guys. I think their defensive speed is a plus for them, and they kind of fly around. I think that's what's going to get their defense charged up. I think we've got to kind of limit that for those guys and match speed for speed. We can do that.''

REUNITED

If there's anyone who knows what to expect from Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins, it's LaFleur. LaFleur was Cousins' position coach in Washington in 2012 and 2013. Washington was LaFleur's first stop in the NFL.

''If you let him sit back there and have time, he's going to pick you apart because he's extremely accurate,'' LaFleur said of Cousins.

Cousins, who sent a congratulatory text message to LaFleur after the first-year Packers coach picked up his first career win in Chicago, played sparingly under LaFleur as Cousins backed up 2012 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Robert Griffin III.

Cousins had just 10 pass attempts in the win last week, the fewest of any game he's started in his career.

''I have no interest in dropping back 50 times if we don't need to,'' he said. ''I like to win the way we did last week if that's the way it can happen. I'll play whatever game is called, whatever game we need, and all that really matters is that we find a way at the end to win. I'm not going to nitpick or look at any of the steps along the way to get there.''

SIMPLY DOMINANT

Aaron Rodgers has seven games with a passer rating of 130-plus against Minnesota, the most by a quarterback against one team in NFL history. Rodgers has 24 touchdown and zero interceptions in those seven games (6-1).

''It's just high-percentage passes,'' he said. ''You're trying to find in the progression what guys give you the best chance of a completion and the lowest chance of a negative play. This is the way I've played and we've played here for a long time. We take care of the football.''

STOUT DEFENSE

Two of Minnesota's biggest defensive stars have shined brightest against Green Bay. Free safety Harrison Smith, who had a team-high eight tackles last week, has five career interceptions against the Packers. The eight-year veteran has 20 career picks. Meanwhile, defensive end Everson Griffen has 12+ sacks in 19 career games against Green Bay.

''You have Pro Bowl-caliber players on every level of the defense, great inside linebackers, two guys off the edge who can rush really, really well, and then a back end that can really cover, one of the top safeties in the league in Harrison, and obviously a great corner combo with Trae and Xavier,'' Rodgers said. ''They do a great job of playing their scheme. They've been together for a while. They're a tough team to try to attack.''

OFFENSIVE FOCUS

Both LaFleur and Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said the offense needs to operate more efficiently on first and second downs on Sunday to avoid third-and-long situations. The Packers converted only 2 of 12 third-down opportunities in the opener.

INJURY CONCERNS

The Vikings placed receiver Josh Doctson on injured reserve Thursday with a hamstring injury. Minnesota signed the 2016 first-round pick just before the start of the season after he was released by Washington. Doctson was inactive for Week 1.

Green Bay left tackle David Bakhtiari, who appeared on the team's injury report Wednesday with a back issue, was not in pads on Thursday. LaFleur wouldn't say whether Bakhtiari was held out for precautionary reasons or if it means his availability for Sunday is in question.

 

[Cnotes53]

Falcons hoping for quick turnaround on defense
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) Ricardo Allen hopes to return to pro football after spending last Sunday back in the Big Ten.

At least that's what it felt like to Allen, a fifth-year free safety whose Atlanta Falcons gave up 172 yards rushing on 38 carries in the opener.

That's way too many running plays to face in an NFL game. Allen knows it can't happen again.

''It took me back to my college times,'' Allen, a former Purdue standout, said. ''That's one of those games, if you don't stop the run, one of the easiest plays in football is to just hand it off. If you can do that, you can control the clock. You can control the ball. You've got better chances just handing the ball off and going.''

Allen can only hope the Falcons (0-1) don't dig another early hole Sunday night against Philadelphia (1-0). Atlanta trailed 21-0 midway through the second quarter at Minnesota, and the Vikings used the early advantage to play old-school offense.

It was an embarrassment for a defense that last year ranked second worst in third-down percentage, third worst in yards per carry, fifth worst in yards per game, and eighth worst in scoring.

With Allen, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones back at full strength after all three sustained major injuries in last year's 7-9 season, the Falcons had hoped for a quick turnaround, particularly after coach Dan Quinn made himself defensive coordinator.

''We didn't do what we needed to do,'' nose tackle Grady Jarrett said. ''They executed well and kept getting outside. We need to address that if we want to have a good defense. We want to get better because teams will put that on film and attack that against us.''

This week's challenge will likely be tougher. The Eagles have a dangerous run-pass option in quarterback Carson Wentz, whose offense piled up 436 yards in rallying Philadelphia from a 17-0 deficit to beat Washington.

Receiver DeSean Jackson, tight end Zach Ertz, receiver Alshon Jeffrey and running backs Darren Sproles, Miles Sanders and Jordan Harris give Wentz abundant options, but the Falcons' first concern is to try and contain the trio of running backs.

They can't afford another letdown on the ground.

''We understand what we have to do,'' Allen said. ''That was one of the first times I've seen a team being able to come out and do that to us. We know what we've got to do. We've got to fight.''

Quinn, as he's done since he arrived in January 2015, keeps harping on takeaways, but there's been no evidence over the last two years that his message is getting through. The Falcons forced just eight fumbles last season and ranked second worst with four fumble recoveries. They were ninth in interceptions, but seven of the picks went to Damontae Kazee, who has moved to nickel cornerback after filling in for Allen last year.

Atlanta was minus-3 in turnover margin last week.

''It was hard on us to have a performance like that when we have really high expectations for one another,'' Quinn said. ''But like I said, as the teacher in me, if there's a way for us to have this lesson, I'd rather get hit right now, to get this lesson learned and applied, not seven or 10 weeks later.

''That lesson about the ball, it's real. We didn't get any to put ourselves into the plus.''

Notes: Quinn said rookie RG Chris Lindstrom underwent successful surgery on his broken left foot. Lindstrom, the 14th overall draft pick, isn't expected to return until November. ... Return specialist Kenjon Barner (ankle) was added to the injury report. He joined OT Matt Gono (back), G Wes Schweitzer (shoulder) WR Russell Gage (concussion) in being limited at practice. ... DT Deadrin Senat (back) was a full participant.

 

[Cnotes53]

Eagles' running backs showed plenty of promise
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

PHILADELPHIA (AP) The Philadelphia Eagles cut their two top rushers from last season because they have several options to run the football.

They delivered in Week 1.

Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles and Miles Sanders combined for 116 yards on 26 carries in a 32-27 win over Washington. They were so effective that Corey Clement, a Super Bowl hero two seasons ago, didn't get a carry.

Howard had 44 yards rushing and an average of 7.3 yards per carry. The 36-year-old Sproles had 46 yards on nine carries. Sanders, a rookie second-round pick, ran 11 times for 25 yards.

''Just have to be ready when your number is called and take advantage of the opportunities,'' Howard said Thursday.

The group could have an even bigger game Sunday night in Atlanta. The Falcons surrendered 172 yards rushing in a 28-12 loss at Minnesota.

''We have confidence in the guys running all the schemes, but we do try to get everybody involved and in the mix,'' offensive coordinator Mike Groh said. ''Then you have to try to balance that with ... you have to do a great job self-scouting yourself and making sure that they're in on some things from a weekly basis that maybe didn't show the week before. We're constantly massaging that and managing that, and we have a lot of confidence in those guys to run all the runs that we have on each game plan.''

The Eagles, led by LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi, had the NFL's third-ranked rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl following the 2017 season. But the team was decimated by injuries last year. Ajayi and Clement sustained season-ending knee injuries. Sproles missed 10 games and Blount wasn't re-signed.

So Philadelphia turned to Josh Adams. The rookie free agent ran for 511 yards. Wendell Smallwood, a fifth-round pick in 2016, had 364 yards rushing. But the Eagles had the league's 28th-ranked rushing offense. Both players were among the final cuts this year.

Sanders was impressive in training camp and could end up being the featured back. Howard had success in Chicago and ran hard against the Redskins. Sproles still has excellent speed at his age.

''When we put the run game together, we think about the backs and who is going to be in on certain plays,'' coach Doug Pederson said. ''So you can see how dynamic that can be and we're just going to continue to work it that way. Sometimes it's the hot hand, but sometimes it's based on game plan and who is in at that particular time.''

Notes: LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (knee) and T Jordan Mailata (back) didn't practice Thursday. DT Fletcher Cox (toe) and QB Nate Sudfeld (left wrist) were limited.

 

[Cnotes53]

No more Luck gives Titans chance to flip script vs. Colts
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Indianapolis Colts have stood in the Tennessee Titans' way starting first with Peyton Manning, then Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett's turn.

And for the Titans, it's a big opportunity finally to flip the script.

''It's a new year,'' Titans tight end Delanie Walker said. ''I don't dwell on the past. We look to the future. We're going to try to change that for sure here.''

The Titans won the first AFC South title in 2002 after realignment. Then the Colts seized control of the division and this rivalry, winning 26 of 32 games and 13 of the past 15. Even when the Titans won their last AFC South title in 2008, they still split with the Colts.

Tennessee opened this season by stunning the Browns 43-13 in Cleveland. A win would be the Titans' first 2-0 start since 2008, giving them an early division lead over the Colts ,who grabbed a playoff berth from them last December in the final game of the NFL regular season.

A win also would show signs of consistency the Titans have lacked for more than a decade.

''We're planning to do a lot bigger things than going just 1-0,'' Titans safety Kevin Byard said. ''We want to go win a Super Bowl, so that's something we have to focus on. It's just another step on trying to go from good to great.''

Luck never lost to the Titans in 11 games before his stunning retirement. Brissett stepped up and rallied the Colts from a 24-9 deficit before losing 30-24 in overtime to the Chargers on the road last week. The quarterback is different, but the Colts haven't changed what they want.

''The team that wins this game, it's going to be a big step, a big momentum maker for the team,'' Colts coach Frank Reich said. ''Winning the division is the first and foremost goal of most teams, so this goes a long way toward that goal.''

Some things to know about the Colts and Titans:

MAYBE NOT THE QB

Brissett went 0-2 against the Titans in 2017, but Tennessee's struggles extend beyond just Manning and Luck.

When Manning missed the entire 2011 season, Dan Orlovsky ended Indy's winless season with a 27-13 victory in Week 15 at Lucas Oil Stadium. And when Luck and backup Matt Hasselbeck were both out for the 2015 season finale, Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman were signed off the street and combined to lead Indy to a 30-24 victory over the Titans.

FULL STRENGTH

Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn't the only starter missing the last time these teams played. The Titans also were without four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan, Walker and tight end Jonnu Smith. All five are healthy, with Mariota coming off his first three-TD game since November 2016.

FLUNKED

All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard found all the motivation he needed watching film.

''An F,'' he said when asked to grade his seven-tackle performance in the Colts' opening loss. ''That's what I got and that's what I gave myself because I played terrible. I didn't play up to the standards I have for myself.''

Leonard has been here before. Last season in his first NFL game, he made nine tackles and recovered one fumble. The next week, Leonard broke out with a stunning stat line: 19 tackles, 15 solo, one forced fumble and one pass defense. He went on to lead the league with 163 tackles despite missing one game because of an injury.

THE LOOK

Brissett has only logged 19 starts in his four-year career, but he knows all about Titans defensive coordinator Dean Pees. When asked where he'd rank Pees and the exotic looks he likes to use, Brissett said: ''No. 1, for sure.''

The Titans piled up five sacks, three interceptions and a safety against Cleveland. What makes Pees' defenses so challenging?

''They do different things, use different personnel, it's just tough,'' Brissett said.''

TRY A LITTLE PATIENCE

Titans rookie receiver A.J. Brown had three catches for 100 yards in the opener, while Corey Davis, the first receiver drafted at No. 5 overall in 2017, was held without a catch. Adam Humphries, the Titans' big free agent signee, caught the only ball thrown his way. Davis said the Titans have a lot of weapons and the ball can go to any player on any given week.

''When your number's called, you got to make the play,'' Davis said.

 

[Cnotes53]

Bills and Giants trying to shake off NFL also-ran labels
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) The Buffalo Bills and New York Giants have been among the NFL's also-rans for a while, and it's hard to believe things are going to change a week into the season.

The Bills (1-0) beat the Jets 17-16 in a game most felt Buffalo was lucky to win after coughing up the ball four times and falling behind 16-0 late in the third quarter.

After going undefeated in the preseason, the Giants (0-1) had a clunker in the opener at Dallas and were thrashed 35-17.

The two playoff long shots will meet Sunday when the Bills return to MetLife Stadium with Buffalo looking for its first 2-0 start since 2014 and the Giants trying to avoid a sixth 0-2 start since 2013.

Each team has made the playoffs once since 2012: New York in 2016 and Buffalo the following year, ending an 18-year drought. Neither lasted long in the postseason.

And neither is making much of the openers.

''This is Buffalo, man, we don't get no credit,'' Bills safety Micah Hyde said. ''Hey, we have no reason to think we're going to win the Super Bowl because we don't get no credit outside of here. We're going to continue to work. That's what (coach) Sean (McDermott) preaches every day. We're not complacent. We understand that it's going to be a day-by-day thing.''

Giants quarterback Eli Manning said no one is panicking.

''There is always urgency, you have to understand the difference between stressing and forcing, and urgency,'' he said. ''I think it's still a matter of having great preparation, great work; it starts on the practice field. Understanding the game plan, going out there and executing.''

The Giants did a good job on offense in the opener, gaining 470 yards, with Manning throwing for 306 yards and a touchdown. The negative was converting 2 of 11 on third downs and having the defense give up 494 yards as Dak Prescott threw four touchdown passes.

The Bills allowed 223 yards to the Jets and the offense rallied behind Josh Allen late to win.

Here's what to watch Sunday:

MOTIVATED ALLEN

If Allen needed extra motivation to keep the Bills undefeated, Giants coach Pat Shurmur may have supplied it early in the week.

When asked his thoughts on Allen prior to the 2018 draft, Shurmur said he believed Allen had the chance to be an NFL starter. Not a glowing assessment of the No. 7 overall pick. The Bills put up the comment in their locker room.

Allen has topped 200 yards passing in six straight games, matching the most since Drew Bledsoe in 2002 for Buffalo. The last Bills player to top 200 yards passing in seven or more consecutive starts was Hall of Famer Jim Kelly in 1992.

RECEIVER WOES

The Giants could be hurting at wide receiver. Golden Tate III is serving the second of a four-game suspension for using performance enhancers. Sterling Shepard, envisioned as the go-to guy after Odell Beckham Jr. went to Cleveland, sustained a concussion Sunday, so his status is uncertain. Veteran Cody Latimer was limited at practice this week. That leaves veterans Bennie Fowler and Russell Shepard to carry the load along with recently re-signed TJ Jones and tight ends Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison. Engram had career bests of 11 catches and 116 yards and scored a TD against Dallas.

ADVERSITY DEFENSE

Buffalo's defense rescued Allen after his four turnovers, including a pick-6. The Jets combined for one first down and 33 net yards offense immediately following the Bills' three turnovers - and 223 yards overall. That's a carryover from last year: Over the final seven games, Buffalo allowed 17 points (one an interception return for a TD) off 10 turnovers.

BARKLEY TOUCHES

The big question around the Giants this week was whether halfback Saquon Barkley got enough touches. The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year kicked off his second season with 11 carries for 120 yards and four catches for 19 yards. Many felt that wasn't enough for a player described as a generational back.

''If we play better than what we did last game and execute when we need to execute, I don't think the conversation will be 15 touches if we find a way to win,'' Barkley said.

BAD DEFENSE

Defensive coordinator James Bettcher and his unit are on the hot spot after giving up 494 yards and 35 points to the Cowboys. There were just too many blown coverages, missed tackles and little mistakes to go along with Bettcher's own ill-advised calls.

New York was ranked 30th in the league after the first game, including last in pass defense after giving up 405 yards.

''I won't panic, never panic,'' Bettcher said. ''I will not panic, nor will our players.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Richard Sherman, 49ers enjoying stay at Youngstown State
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio (AP) Richard Sherman wasn't overly enthused when he learned the San Francisco 49ers were spending an entire week in Ohio.

Four days into their stay, the four-time Pro Bowl cornerback is singing a different tune.

''My kids keep telling me they're mad that I left them in Santa Clara (California), but it's worked out great for our team,'' Sherman said Thursday after a two-hour afternoon practice at Youngstown State. ''In terms of bonding, adjusting our body clock and the time change, it's really going to help all of us on Sunday.''

The 49ers traveled to Northeast Ohio following their 31-17 victory Sunday at Tampa Bay - instead of flying cross country from Florida - and will play at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. They haven't opened a season with back-to-back road wins in 30 years.

San Francisco's previous 2-0 start occurred in 2012, coincidentally the last time it visited Youngstown State. Current 49ers CEO Jed York was raised in the city and longtime owners the DeBartolo-York family are synonymous with the Mahoning Valley.

''Our owners are from here and they've opened up everything for us, so we're enjoying it,'' cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon said. ''It's almost been like normal with the same shing-ding we do in Santa Clara, except having to get up when it's like 4 in the morning at home. But even that's good because we'll be ready for it when we get to Cincinnati.''

University officials welcomed the 49ers to campus, giving them locker rooms at Stambaugh Stadium, access to their weight-training area and the ability to hold three practices at their soccer and outdoor track stadium.

Though the Penguins compete at the FCS level, their athletic facilities are on par with many mid-major NCAA programs.

''I've told some of the guys, this isn't your normal Division I-AA looking school, that's for sure,'' quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo said. ''I've been to a number of them and the stadium, weight room, whatever we've seen here, it's pretty impressive. The whole week, it's been good.''

The business trip also has been a homecoming for fullback Kyle Juszczyk, a high school football standout at Lodi Cloverleaf, located 75 miles to the west in a largely rural community.

The three-time Pro Bowl selection met his brother for lunch on San Francisco's day off and has been his teammates' go-to guy with questions about the myriad differences between Ohio and the congested Bay Area.

''They've been joking about there being every kind of chain restaurant here, how far apart everything is spaced and the amount of farmland they've seen,'' Juszczyk said. ''I've had to stick up for myself a lot, but it's been a nice opportunity for all of us and it's always nice to come home.''

The 49ers will check out of their hotel in suburban Boardman on Friday morning, then practice for the final time at Youngstown State before boarding a mid-afternoon flight to Cincinnati.

It wouldn't be surprising if Garoppolo stops at his new favorite ice cream parlor or tight end George Kittle picks up a box of chicken on their way out of town.

''Youngstown State has been awesome and the Holiday Inn has been incredible, just a great week,'' Iowa product Kittle said, breaking into a smile. ''The best part of being back in the Midwest is you have every chain restaurant you could imagine here. Now, I'm not saying I've eaten at them all, but it's nice just to know they're there for you.''

NOTES: Rookie DE Nick Bosa (high right ankle sprain) did not practice for the second straight day, but defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said he could play against the Bengals. The No. 2 overall pick sat out the preseason with the injury and had a sack at Tampa Bay. ''He's working with the performance staff trying to get ready for Sunday, so we'll see,'' Saleh said. ''Nick is a football junkie, so I know he's going to look hard at the tape from last week. I'm sure his pops also looks at the tape and I'm sure his brother (Chargers DE Joey Bosa) will look at the tape.'' ... WR Jalen Hurd (back), RB Tevin Coleman (ankle), WR Trent Taylor (foot) remain out. S Jimmie Ward (right ring finger surgery) was limited.

 

[Cnotes53]

Lions and Chargers hope to learn how to maintain late leads
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

DETROIT (AP) The Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions got off to solid starts in their openers, building double-digit leads in the second half before blowing them and going to overtime.

Los Angeles led Indianapolis by 15 points midway through the third quarter and salvaged a victory on Austin Ekeler's third touchdown with 5:01 left in the extra period.

''You won, but there's a still a feeling that we weren't at our best and that's a heavy feeling,'' Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. ''In some ways it could be a good thing. I think our guys will be very focused this week.''

Detroit, meanwhile, failed to keep an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter at Arizona and wound up in a tie.

To make the setback sting even more for the Lions, they made an ill-timed decision with 2:47 left. With the play clock winding down, Matthew Stafford snapped the ball just after a timeout was called and completed a third-and-5 pass that would have picked up a first down and put Detroit in a favorable position to win.

Stafford appeared to scream, ''trust me,'' on the sideline because the 11-year veteran wanted the coaches to let him manage the game.

''I'm not too worried about that,'' Stafford insisted days later, surrounded by reporters. ''We've moved past it, probably better than you guys.''

Here are some other things to watch when the Lions (0-0-1) host Los Angeles (1-0) on Sunday at Ford Field:

ON THE RUN

Despite the absence of holdout Melvin Gordon, the Chargers averaged 6 yards per carry in Week 1. Justin Jackson gained 9-plus yards each time he was handed the ball, and Ekeler had 58 yards rushing. Ekeler finished with career highs in yards receiving (96), yards from scrimmage (154) and touchdowns (three) against the Colts, giving him a relative measure of fame.

Chargers running backs coach Alfredo Roberts had a little talk with Ekeler, trying to keep him grounded.

''He said you have that cologne on,'' Ekeler recalled Roberts saying. ''It smells good right away, but it fades. Don't drink it because it's poison.''

DOMINATED DT

Detroit's Damon ''Snacks'' Harrison, a run-stuffing defensive tackle, took the season-opening tie personally. Harrison tweeted that he was dominated at Arizona after he made only one tackle.

''Anytime we don't come out with a win and we have the type of defensive performance we had, I feel like it's on me,'' he said. ''I got broad shoulders. I can take the blame.''

POSSIBLY PIVOTAL

Lions offensive tackle Taylor Decker is coming off a lackluster game, giving up two sacks and getting called for four penalties, and he's on the injury report this week with a back injury. The timing isn't good for the player who protects Stafford's blind side because defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa have combined for more than 70 career sacks.

ROAD WARRIORS

Los Angeles won its last six road games in 2018 in the regular season, including second-half comebacks at Pittsburgh and Kansas City, and eight of nine away from home dating to the 2017 season. The Chargers also won at Baltimore in the playoffs before losing on the road to New England.

''That's why you try to keep your group together because you hope to carry that over, but you just don't know until you do it,'' coach Anthony Lynn said. ''When we went on the road, at least last year, it was an, `Us against the world,' mentality. That's kind of what you want.''

BALANCING ACT

Detroit is determined to run the ball more often, and successfully, with new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. He's counting on running backs Kerryon Johnson and C.J. Anderson to control the game, taking pressure off Stafford and the passing game. Johnson and Anderson combined to run for 84 yards on 27 carries against the Cardinals, but may find more room to run in Week 2. The Chargers gave up 203 yards rushing, the second-highest total in Week 1, and allowed Marlon Mack to run for a career-high 174 yards for the Colts.

 

[Cnotes53]

Chiefs defense has room for improvement
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) There were plenty of reasons for the Kansas City Chiefs to be optimistic their porous defense, a big reason they were eliminated in the playoffs a year ago, would be vastly improved this season.

They hired a new and accomplished coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo. They brought traded for elite pass rusher Frank Clark. They signed talented free agent Tyrann Mathieu. They used two of their first three draft picks on safety Juan Thornhill and defensive lineman Khalen Saunders.

Besides, it's not as if the Chiefs defense could get much worse.

Right?

Well, the Jacksonville Jaguars and their backup quarterback gave reason for concern last weekend, torching a defense that was clearly still learning a new system. Sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew, who took over when Nick Foles left with an injury, was a mere 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two touchdowns and an interception - which came off a tipped pass.

His completion rate of 88 percent was the highest in league history for any quarterback with at least 15 pass attempts while making his first appearance in an NFL game.

''There are things we can do better all the way around in all three phases of our games,'' Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. ''I sure liked the effort. The more those guys play together and with the system, I just think the sky is the limit.''

It wasn't a complete debacle. The Chiefs did roll to a 40-26 win on the road. And they did make a few plays on defense, forcing a couple of turnovers and keeping running back Leonard Fournette in check.

They also looked as if they knew what they were doing most of the time, which is no small thing when a team is converting to a 4-3 system from its old 3-4 base. There was minimal confusion, and that allowed the Chiefs to play reasonably fast on defense.

''I want to say there was 58 snaps, we got everyone lined up on every one,'' said Anthony Hitchens, whose job at middle linebacker includes making sure everyone knows where they are supposed to be.

''There was one where they blew up the formation and went empty and we had a massive check and didn't get to it,'' he said, ''but other than that everyone was on the same page for the most part for the whole game. My coach didn't come to me and say I closed this front wrong or anything like that. I think we're all getting it and I'm sure every week we're going to add more to our plate.''

They'll eventually add more talent around their dinner table, too. Veteran cornerback Morris Claiborne served the first game of his four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy last weekend, which means he's just three weeks away from joining the team.

Claiborne was signed late in camp, so he'll face a steep learning curve. But he'll still likely push Charvarius Ward, who was targeted mercilessly by Jacksonville, out of the starting lineup.

The Chiefs might not be done adding talent, either.

They made some moves this week to restructure the contracts of Hitchens and left tackle Eric Fisher, converting base salary to signing bonuses and freeing up more than $10 million in salary cap space. That gives the Chiefs more than $20 million in total cap space should they acquire another cornerback before the Oct. 30 trade deadline.

Of course, that money could also come in handy after the season when the Chiefs are faced with the prospect of signing quarterback Patrick Mahomes to what could be a record-setting extension.

Regardless, the Chiefs head to Oakland this weekend knowing full-well there is still plenty of room to improve on defense. It's a job that has been ongoing for years.

''I liked how aggressive we were (in Jacksonville),'' Reid said. ''I thought the intensity maintained strong and the tempo was fast throughout the game. I think the guys are in shape. I just think it is becoming even more familiar with the defense. I think that as time goes on here, I think they'll just keep getting better and better in that way.''

Notes: WR Tyreek Hill attended practice Thursday with his arm in a sling. He's expected to miss about six weeks with a fractured collarbone. ... OL Jimmy Murray was waived from the practice squad to create space for WR Byron Pringle, who was signed after he was released from the active roster.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Underdogs: Week 2 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Giants fans aren?t openly rooting for the team to struggle but deep down inside they want to see QB Eli Manning suck. Well, not this week guys.

You know the cartoons, where the little devil appears on a character?s shoulder and nudges them towards those evil thoughts creeping into their brain? That?s New York Giants fans right now.

Giants fans aren?t openly rooting for the team to struggle but deep down inside (down in the darkness of their guts) they want to see QB Eli Manning suck, so rookie passer and preseason darling Daniel Jones can save them from the pain. And that little shoulder devil is gnawing their ear off right now.

To every devil, there?s a conflicting angel, and this little bugger is preaching Manning?s Week 1 stat line like it?s the Old Testament. The much-maligned veteran threw for more than 300 yards with a 68 percent completion rate and a touchdown in New York?s 35-17 loss to Dallas ? a loss that despite what the devil may say, is not Eli's fault.

Big Blue makes its home debut in East Rutherford this weekend against a Buffalo Bills team that has spent more at MetLife Stadium than the Giants. The Bills pulled a 17-16 road win over the New York Jets out of their jocks in Week 1, playing putrid football for the first three quarters.

While it?s only a six-hour jaunt from Orchard Park to the Meadowlands, this is still the Bills' second straight road game and that thrilling victory over the Jets could set this team up for a letdown in Week 2. Buffalo fell victim to a similar situational spot on the road in Week 5 of the 2018 season, following a come-from-behind win as a visitor in the previous game.

The Giants? biggest issue in Week 1 was blown coverage and big plays allowed to the Cowboys, which is something the Bills just don?t do on offense (only 43 passing plays of 20-plus, and eight of 40-plus in 2018). Buffalo is at its best when running the ball and while it was only one week, the G-Men handled Dallas? rushing game to the tune of only 2.96 yards per carry in Week 1.

While we missed the best of this number earlier in the week (Giants were as big as +3), we?re listening to that angel on our shoulder and going with Eli & Co. to quiet the devil for at least one more week.

PICK: New York +1.5


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-9.5, 43.5)

I?ve been staring at this one for a while and even broke down the incredibly difficult spot Houston is in for this Week 2 divisional battle in my weekly spot bets.

Picture if you will, the club sandwich of situational capping: a letdown off a close MNF loss, a lookahead to a trip to L.A. and the Bolts in Week 3, and a schedule spot due to a short week to prepare and heel up from Monday?s matchup. Slather that sucker in mayo and jam it between two perfectly-toasted pieces of bread (with another stuck in the middle) and how could you resist not taking a big bite of the points in Week 2?

Oh, Gardner Minshew. That?s why.

The Jaguars are looking to the first-year passer out of Washington State to hold down the fort, after losing offseason acquisition Nick Foles to a broken collarbone in Week 1. Minshew was solid ? actually he was pretty frickin? great ? in his first pro appearance, connecting on 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the loss to Kansas City last Sunday.

That resulted in a QBR of 88.3 for Minshew, which was just a few ticks off the pace of Week 1 counterpart and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes (89.7 QBR) and ranked among the Top 8 for the NFL openers, along with names like Brady, Wentz, Prescott and ahead of Drew Brees (78.2) for Week 1.

Week 2 is known for overreactions, and this near 10-point spread is classic Week 2 horseshit. The lookahead lines ? which came out before Week 1 was played ? had Jacksonville as a 3-point road underdog in Houston, with Foles as the projected starter. Even for all his postseason glory and locker room lore, there?s no way Foles is worth six and a half points to the spread, especially after he only threw eight passes for the franchise before get knocked out of his first game.

And I haven?t even touched on the Jaguars defense. But we have a word count. Moving on.

PICK: Jacksonville +9.5

l
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT DETOIT LIONS (+2.5, 48)

This spread would probably look a little different if Detroit hadn?t barfed up an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter and received an inopportune timeout from offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell that helped set the table for Arizona?s dramatic comeback and the eventual tie game.

For more than three quarters, the Lions looked really good. The Detroit defense was shutting the door on coaching golden boy Kliff Kingsbury?s new offense and the Lions' scoring attack was smashing home run plays like the damn MLB steroid era. I was high on Detroit entering the season, and I?m going to stay the course, expecting a complete game with the team back in Motown for Week 2.

The Chargers are coming off a close one versus Indianapolis Sunday and make the flight for the early 1 p.m. ET start in Week 2. Los Angeles is missing some key bodies in the secondary, putting standout safety Derwin James and CB Trevor Williams on IR and playing without CB Michael Davis (hamstring) this week. The Bolts pass defense was down to three healthy corners and scrambling to find help this week.

The big thing for Detroit will be protecting Matt Stafford from the L.A. edge rushers and getting better work from RB Kerryon Johnson. The Chargers were brutalized by the Colts' run game in Week 1, allowing 203 yards on the ground and 6.2 yards per carry.

Again, I missed the good number of Lions +3 early in the week. If you can wait, see if this comes back up to a field goal with your bookie.

PICK: Detroit +2.5

Week 1 picks: 3-0
Season to date: 3-0

 

[Cnotes53]

Points of Interest: NFL Week 2 Over/Under picks and predictions
Steve Paul

Lamar Jackson & Co. scored at will against Miami. Jackson certainly looked better as a passer than in 2018, but he?s unlikely to see quite the same number of uncovered receivers Week 2.

For Week 1, we talked about how despite a few year-to-year surprises, there?s a lot of continuity in the NFL in terms of which offenses/defenses are good/bad. We now have a week?s worth of data to help confirm some of what we thought we knew, while resisting the urge to crown Lamar Jackson the GOAT.

OFFENSES

The Saints, Chiefs and Patriots all were expected to be top-tier offenses and lived up to that billing, all finishing Top 6 in Week 1 by offensive EPA. The other big winners were a little more surprising as the Top 2 offenses in Week 1 were the Cowboys and Ravens. Both of those games featured numerous blown coverages, so while I?ll keep an eye out Week 2, I?m not ready to crown those offenses elite just yet.

On the other end of the spectrum, we saw some surprising offensive duds. Jameis Winston cemented last week?s doubts of him, but the rest of the Bottom 5 were all surprising: the Browns, Steelers, Falcons and Packers. For now, I?m giving the Falcons and Packers the benefit of the doubt as they faced the two top defenses by EPA from 2018 but there should be some concern for the Browns and especially Steelers fans.

DEFENSES

The good defenses from 2018 all performed well again, with the Vikings, Bears and Ravens all Top 6 by EPA. Perhaps the biggest surprise of Week 1 was the Denver defense. Last week, I mentioned they?d been merely average the last couple years, but they looked much worse against the Antonio Brown-less Raiders, ranking Bottom 10 by EPA and 27th by success percentage allowed.

Now, on to the picks...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4, 46.5)

Two big things jump out in this game: first, the Steeler offense really struggled in its first game without Antonio Brown. Looking beyond the three points the Steelers scored, they ranked 30th by EPA and, most concerningly, ranked 31st in success percentage with well under a third of their plays having positive EPA. A banged-up Juju Smith-Schuster does nothing to help this week.

Secondly, and just as importantly the Seahawks showed they want to continue their slow, run-heavy ways in 2019, running the ball on more than half of their plays and running only 49 total plays in their Week 1 game versus Cincinnati.

Struggling offense plus slow game does not equal a lot of points.

PREDICTION: Under 46.5


ARIZONA CARDINALS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13, 46.5)

The market has moved 4.5 points already on this one but to me the final boxscore is misleading. Arizona put up a respectable 27 points on 387 yards in its comeback tie against the Lions in Week 1. But to watch that game though, is to watch a defense run out of gas.

On their first 12 drives (ignoring a kneel-down at half), the Cardinals ran 53 plays for 163 yards and nine points. From that point on the Lions defense looked gassed, getting virtually no pressure and allowing the Cardinals to march down the field. Don?t expect the same against a Ravens stop unit that finished second by EPA in each of the last two years and continued that Week 1 against the undermanned Dolphins.

On the other side of the ball, Lamar Jackson & Co. scored at will against Miami. Jackson certainly looked better as a passer than in 2018, but he?s unlikely to see quite the same number of uncovered receivers Week 2. Arizona?s defense was slightly below average in 2018 and performed slightly better in Week 1. The Cardinals are not going to shut down the Ravens completely but should put up a better fight than the Dolphins.

PREDICTION: Under 46.5


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7, 53.5)

The Chiefs made short work of the Jaguars defense which, despite its well-publicized struggles in 2018, was still a well-above average defense. They now face a Raiders defense that held up against the Broncos but ranked 32nd by EPA in 2018 and will be without starting safety and first-round pick Jonathan Abrams.

The Raiders offense meanwhile put up an impressive performance against what was supposed to be a great Denver defense under new coach Vic Fangio. The Kansas City defense gave up 26 points and well over 400 yards to the Gardner Minshew (who?)-led Jags, leaving this one with all the makings of a shootout.

PREDICTION: Over 53.5

Week 1 picks: 2-1
Season to date: 2-1

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Josh Inglis


EKELER EATS

The Los Angeles Chargers are already in Defcon 3 as their offensive talent is dropping like Donte Moncrief catches. Heading into Sunday?s cross-country tilt against the Detroit Lions (+2.5), the Bolts will be without their starting tight end and possibly their No. 2 receiver as well as their kicker. To make matters worse, top wide receiver Keenan Allen will likely draw Lions corner Darius Slay who PFF has ranked as the eighth-best CB heading into 2019.

Few offensive options + Austin Ekeler x (Philip Rivers) = Ek Eats

One week after scoring the game-winning touchdown versus the Colts in overtime, Ekeler will be riding high against the Lions who gave up 132 all-purpose yards to David Johnson, including six receptions on seven targets for 55 yards and a score. The Chargers have no choice but to get the ball into Ekeler?s mitts and the best and most productive way to do that is through the air.

We?re going to pass on Ekeler?s total receptions as it sits at 5.5 (+102) but hitting the Over on his receiving yards total of 45.5 (-114) and will also double down on his total yards (99.5) in what we see as a plus-matchup for the pint-sized back.

BEARISH ON BOYD

Are you getting behind the Andy Dalton MVP train at +15,000? Yeah, neither is anyone else. That?s not to say that the Red Rocket?s receiving corps isn?t talented but there won?t be many - if any - 400-yard passing games for the Bengals going forward.

Cincinnati receiver John Ross exploded for 150-plus yards on 12 targets while fellow WR Tyler Boyd managed 60 yards on 11 targets. With Boyd likely to draw the tougher assignment against San Francisco CB Richard Sherman on the outside and averaging just 6.92 air yards per depth of target last week, there?s value in his receiving total of 73.5 yards in Week 2.

The San Francisco defense was supposed to get lit up last week by Jameis Winston & Co. but instead scored two defensive touchdowns and held Bruce Arians? offense to under 200 yards passing with three picks. Add in the fact that the Bengals allowed five sacks last week, and we are grabbing the Under 73.5 on Boyd?s receiving yards and can also get behind the Under on the Bengals? team total of 23.5.

THE AIR UP THERE

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan wrote a great piece on the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos matchup and how the altitude affects teams early in the season as their conditioning isn?t in midseason form:

?Denver is the worst place to play early in the season, specifically in the Broncos? home openers. Since 2000, Denver is an incredible 18-1 SU in home openers and has gone 11-4-4 ATS in those Mile High debuts (73 percent)?

Logan goes on to mention that the lack of oxygen could be detrimental to the Bears. Head coach Matt Nagy ran an offensive play every 26 seconds (ninth most) last week and pushed it even more in the second half with a play every 21 seconds (fourth most in 2H). If the air is a big factor like these trends possibly indicate, then the Bears may have to play slower which could alter the rhythm of the offense and impair the quality of play.

With the total already dropping a full-point to 40.5 after opening at 41.5, we are looking at Chicago?s team total for better value. We are ridin? the Bears? team total Under 21.5.

DOUBLING ON BIG D

On Wednesday we backed the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins Over 46.5. Today, we are going back to the nation?s capital and doing some things that are usually a betting no-no.

To make it clear, we are chasing a previous week?s performance AND laying 5.5 points on the road versus a divisional game. Usually, that?s a recipe for losing money, but Dallas? new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has the Cowboys doing things they weren?t doing under former coordinator Scott Linehan. Moore called play-action on 48 percent of the plays, motioned in 73 percent and ran three-WR sets on 73 percent, combining for 494 total yards of offense.

Washington may also do a good job of shooting itself in the foot and giving the ball back to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Redskins had eight offensive penalties in Philadelphia (five holding, two false starts and a delay of game) and punted on five of their last seven possessions ? scoring a TD and field goal.

Coming into the season, Washington was ranked near the bottom of the league. With its competitive performance in Philadelphia, people may have forgotten just how bad this team is. Take Dallas' team total Over 26.5 and -5.5 for a double shot of Big D.

THE LEGS IN L.A.

Kickers are people too and our kicker props went 2-0 last week. For our third installment, we are taking a pair of kicking thoroughbreds in Los Angeles Rams? Greg ?the leg? Zuerlein and New Orleans Saints? Wil ?Gruff? Lutz.

Zuerlein is already raining threes from downtown this year after hitting from 56 and 49 yards last week while Lutz is still riding high after his remarkable game-winning and career-best 58-yarder on MNF.

In what looks like a beautiful forecast and optimal kicking conditions in Los Angeles, bang the Over 47.5 yards for the longest field goal.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday Blitz - Week 2
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Steelers (-3 ?, 47) ? 1:00 PM EST

Seattle (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) faces its second consecutive AFC North squad after holding off Cincinnati in Week 1 as 9 ?-point favorites, 21-20. The Seahawks kept the Bengals out of the end zone in the second half, while Russell Wilson connected with Tyler Lockett on a 44-yard strike to start the fourth quarter to put Seattle in front for good. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season by averaging 160 yards on the ground per game, but the Bengals limited the Seahawks to only 72 yards on 25 carries.

Pittsburgh (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) had an opener to forget as the Steelers were routed by the Patriots, 33-3 as 5 ?-point underdogs. The Steelers were last held without a touchdown against the Jaguars in Week 5 of the 2017 season in a 30-9 defeat, as New England stymied Pittsburgh?s running game to the tune of 32 yards rushing on 13 carries. Pittsburgh enters this week in the favorite role as Mike Tomlin?s team posted a subpar 3-7-1 ATS mark as chalk in 2018.

The Seahawks have struggled in September over the years by losing their last five road openers, while failing to cover in their past five Week 2 contests. To make matters worse, Seattle owns a dreadful 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS mark away from CenturyLink Field in the opening month. The Steelers have fared well against the NFC at Heinz Field by winning seven of the past eight games in this situation.

Best Bet: Steelers 21, Seahawks 20

Vikings at Packers (-3, 43) ? 1:00 PM EST

One of the more impressive efforts in Week 1 came by Minnesota (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), who blasted Atlanta, 28-12 as 3 ?-point home favorites. Although Kirk Cousins attempted 10 passes and threw for under 100 yards, the Vikings? offense was carried by running back Dalvin Cook, who racked up 111 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. Minnesota led 28-0 in the fourth quarter as the Vikings improved to 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight home contests.

The Packers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) lost their first seven road games last season before defeating the Jets in overtime in Week 16. Green Bay started 2019 on a strong note with an away victory at Chicago by defeating the defending NFC North champions, 10-3 as 3 ?-point underdogs. Aaron Rodgers hooked up with Jimmy Graham for the only touchdown of the game, while the Packers? defense limited the Bears to 46 yards rushing.

Last season, the Vikings and Packers finished in a 29-29 tie in Week 2 at Lambeau Field as Minnesota overcame a 13-point deficit to force overtime. Minnesota knocked off Green Bay at home, 24-17 in November to improve to 5-1-1 in the last seven matchups. The Packers struggled off a win last season by compiling an 0-5-1 mark in this situation, while last winning consecutive games in 2017.

Best Bet: Vikings 24, Packers 17

Saints at Rams (-2, 52) ? 4:25 PM EST

The last time these two teams hooked up in January at the Superdome, all hell broke loose due to one no-call on an obvious pass interference in the NFC championship. Instead of the Saints trying to run the clock out for the game-winning field goal, New Orleans kicked the go-ahead field goal and Los Angeles still had time to tie the game and force overtime. The Rams picked off Drew Brees and kicked a long field goal to win, 26-23 and head to the Super Bowl, while New Orleans remained at home with what-if?s and an eventual rule change in which teams can challenge pass interference calls this season.

The Saints (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) rallied past the Texans on Monday night, 30-28, as New Orleans erased a pair of 11-point deficits. After Houston took back the lead in the final minute, Brees marched the Saints down the field to set up a 58-yard game-winning field goal by Wil Lutz, but New Orleans failed to cash as 6 ?-point favorites. Brees threw for 370 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Alvin Kamara racked up 169 yards from scrimmage.

The Rams (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) held off the Panthers, 30-27 to cash as slight 1 ?-point road favorites. Carolina certainly looked better in Week 1 than its Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay, but the Rams led from start to finish and put together a stronger offensive performance than its showing in the Super Bowl against New England. Running back Malcolm Brown had one rushing touchdown in his career entering Week 1, but the former University of Texas standout scored two touchdowns against the Panthers.

New Orleans won seven of eight games away from the Superdome last season and defeated Los Angeles in the regular season, 45-35 as 1 ?-point underdogs to hand the Rams their first loss of 2018. The Rams won eight of nine home games last season, as this is their shortest number to lay the Coliseum since a 54-51 triumph against the Chiefs as three-point favorites.

Best Bet: Saints 31, Rams 28


BEST TOTAL PLAY (0-1 last week)

Over 46 ? - Cowboys at Redskins
These two teams hit the OVER last week against division foes as Dallas scored 35 points and Washington put up 27 in its loss at Philadelphia. This series has seen the OVER hit in six of the past seven matchups, while the Cowboys have scored at least 31 points in four of the last five meetings. This number opened at 45 and has jumped nearly two points throughout the week.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

Although San Francisco posted an 0-8 road record in 2018, the 49ers broke through with an opening week away victory at Tampa Bay. The Niners hit the highway for a second straight week and the expectation is the Bengals are better than they are following their one-point loss at Seattle. Cincinnati has covered five straight games dating back to last season, but four of those ATS wins came as an underdog of 9 ? or more. It will be tough to see Andy Dalton throw for over 400 yards for a second straight week, while A.J. Green remains sidelined for Cincinnati.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Patriots opened up as hefty 14 ?-point road favorites against the Dolphins at the Westgate Superbook last Sunday, but that number jumped as high as 19 before settling at 18 ?. New England ripped Pittsburgh in Week 1, while Miami allowed 59 points in an embarrassing home loss to Baltimore. The Dolphins have won four of the last five home meetings with the Patriots, while New England is 0-5 ATS in its previous five opportunities as a favorite of 18 or more since 2007.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

Since 2014, there have been six ties in the NFL, including last week?s 27-27 deadlock between the Lions and Cardinals. Teams off a tie in this span have not fared well in the following game by losing in nine of 10 opportunities. The Lions welcome in the Chargers on Sunday, while the Cardinals travel to Baltimore as nearly two-touchdown underdogs.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Packers are 10-0 ATS (11.38 ppg) since Dec 07, 2009 as a home favorite with at least five days rest coming off a road win where they allowed fewer points than expected.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-11 ATS (-7.64 ppg) since Sep 23, 2001 coming off a win where they had at least a 75% completion percentage.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-9.50 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 on the road after a game where TY Hilton had at least 75 receiving yards.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which gained at least 500 total yards in week one are 14-2 ATS. Active on New Orleans and Baltimore.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Raiders are 10-0-1 OU (9.45 ppg) since Dec 02, 2007 as a dog coming off a win as a dog where they allowed no more than 18 first downs.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-13-1 OU (-7.50 ppg) since Oct 26, 2015 coming off a road game where they gained at least 22 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Redskins are 0-11 ATS (-13.86 ppg) at home after a loss in which they were up by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 2
Joe Williams

We're hurtling into Week 2 after an eventful opening week in the National Football League. The sample size is obviously still very small, but we're already getting a pretty good idea about a handful of teams, especially those who look like they're going to have trouble on defense and be really, really bad.

Thursday Blues

The ?under? connected in the Week 1 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, and it wasn't even close. The under hit in the battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers to kick off Week 2 on Thursday in Charlotte. It's quite the departure from the 2018 season when the 'over' connected in six of the first seven TNF games, while hitting in 10 of the 14 games on Thursday overall. During the 2017 season the 'over' was 6-2 in the first eight TNF games.

The Thursday games have both featured divisional matchups, too. The under is now 4-2 in six divisional matchups during the early stages of the regular season with six more games on tap this weekend.

Divisional Game Results Week 1

Green Bay at Chicago Under (46.5) Green Bay 10, Chicago 3
Washington at Philadelphia Over (44) Philadelphia 32, Washington 27
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets Under (41.5) Buffalo 17, N.Y. Jets 16
N.Y. Giants at Dallas Over (44.5) Dallas 35, N.Y. Giants 17
Denver at Oakland Under (43) Oakland 24, Denver 16

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Friday evening.
Arizona at Baltimore: 41 to 46 ?
Minnesota at Green Bay: 46 to 43
Dallas at Washington: 44 to 46 ?
Jacksonville at Houston: 44 ? to 43
New England at Miami: 47 to 48 ?
Buffalo at N.Y. Giants: 43 to 44 ?

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 2 per the betting trend percentages as of Friday evening.
Arizona at Baltimore: Over 94%
Cleveland at N.Y. Jets: Over 88%
Philadelphia at Atlanta: Over 87%
Jacksonville at Houston: Under 86%
Chicago at Denver: Under 84%
Seattle at Pittsburgh: Over 84%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (83 percent) in the Kansas City at Oakland matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England at Miami (81 percent) battle.

Handicapping Week 2

We had five divisional matchups in Week 1 (with one already in the books), four NFC vs. NFC battles, five AFC vs. AFC contests and two tussles between AFC vs. NFC.

Week 1 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 2-3
NFC vs. NFC 2-2
AFC vs. AFC 4-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1


The ?over? went 9-7 for the second consecutive season in Week 1. Perhaps 2019 is going down a different road, as the Green Bay at Chicago matchup is already an under result for Week 1.

Taking a look at the remaining divisional battles for Week 2, here are some important trends to note:

Dallas at Washington: The over has connected in six of the past seven meetings in this series, while cashing in four straight divisional matchups for the Cowboys. In addition, the over is 4-1 in their past five games following a straight-up win, although the under is 9-4 in their past 13 following a cover. However, the 'under' is 25-9 in the past 34 road games while going 7-3 in the past 10 games against teams with a losing overall mark. QB Dak Prescott has led the team to a total of 177 points over the past six battles with the Redskins, or an average of 29.5 points per game (PPG). The offense is averaging 26.9 PPG in the past 10 against NFC East opponents, too.

As far as the Redskins are concerned, the over has connected in five of the past seven games against teams with a winning overall record. While the under is 9-4 in the past 13 following a straight-up loss, the over has cashed in four of the past five following a cover. The over is also 5-2 in the past seven Week 2 battle for the 'Skins, for whatever that's worth.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The retired Andrew Luck managed an 11-0 SU mark in his career against the Titans, while QB Jacoby Brissett is 0-2 SU while leading the team to a total of 39 points, or 19.5 PPG. The Titans dropped 43 points on the Browns in a road win in Week 1. In their past five games scoring at least 30 points they followed it up with 10, 17, 33, 14 and 12, or an average of 17.2 PPG. And remember, the Titans had a total of nine points from their defense as a result of a pick-six and safety, while another seven came as the result of a 75-yard pass play. The Titans piled up 31 points in the second half in Cleveland, too.

The under is 4-1 in the past five AFC South battles for the Colts, while going 6-2 in the past eight games against AFC opponents. The under is also 10-3 in Indy's past 13 following a straight-up loss, and 8-3 in the past 11 following a non-cover in the previous week. For Tennesse, it's all over all the time. the over is 5-0 in the past five against AFC opponents, while going 4-0 in the past four in the Music City. The over is also 5-2 in the past seven games in the month of September. In addition, the over has connected in each of the past four meetings in Nashville.

New England at Miami: The Dolphins were hammered for 59 points last week in a loss against the Ravens. Things figure to go from bad to worse for the Fins, as they face a Patriots offense which has posted 30-plus points in five of the past six, including 33 in their 30-point rout of the Steelers in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football. They scored a total of 71 points against the Dolphins in 2018, or an average of 35.5 PPG. The Patriots have hit the under in eight in a row when favored by double digits on the road, including twice last season in a 27-13 win over the Jets, and 25-6 victory against the Bills.

Jacksonville at Houston: The Jaguars will turn to rookie QB Gardner Minshew after losing QB Nick Foles (collarbone) to an injury in Week 1. So much for that big-money signing. Minshew wasn't bad in his debut, however, completing 22-of-25 for 275 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Week 1. The under is 5-2 in Jacksonville's past seven battles in the AFC South, while going 11-5 in the past 16 following a straight-up loss and 5-2 in the past seven following a no-cover. For the Texans, the under is 4-1 in their past five inside the division, and 4-0 in the past four at NRG Stadium.

Minnesota at Green Bay: The under has cashed in seven of the past nine meetings in this series. In addition, the under is 22-7 in Minnesota's past 29 inside the division, while going 4-0 in Green Bay's past four against divisional foes. The under is also 4-0 in the past four for the Packers against teams with a winning overall record, and 8-3 in the past 11 overall. The under usually hits for Minnesota in Week 2, going 18-5 in the past 23 seasons. The total in his divisional battle last season was 45 and 48.5, but this season the total has been steamed down as high as 46 at some shops down to 43.

Kansas City at Oakland: The Chiefs opened with 40 points in Jacksonville in Week 1, and they have hit the 'over' in 16 of their past 20 games on the road, with the total listed at 50 or higher in nine of those games. The Raiders surprised the Broncos on Monday night, dropped 24 points. Last season they averaged 25.1 PPG in eight home outings.The under is 20-8 in the past 28 meetings in this series, but the over has connected in five of the past six in the Black Hole. That includes a wild 40-33 battle last season in primetime. The under is 6-1-1 in the past eight for the Raiders following a straight-up win, and 3-0-1 in the past four following a cover.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 2, with two games listed in double digits. The totals are ranging from 43 ? to 53 ? in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Arizona at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET): The Ravens piled up 59 points in their road win against the Dolphins, and they'll welcome a Lions club for their home opener in Week 2. The Cardinals played to a 27-27 tie against the Lions and an 'over' result. The over has connected in five of the past seven games on the road for Arizona, while going 4-0 in their past four appearances on a field turf surface.

New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The last time the Dolphins were a double-digit underdog they hit the 'under' in a game at Green Bay on Nov. 11, 2018, falling 31-12. In their past eight as a double-digit underdog, the under has connected in seven of those games dating back to Dec. 9, 2012.

Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. ET): The Texans are favored by more than a touchdown at home, which has become commonplace in recent seasons. Last season they were favored by seven or more points in three of their home outings with the 'under' cashing in two of three. For the Jaguars, they were an underdog as a touchdown or more in just one game last season, at Houston on Dec. 30. The under connected in that one, and the under 3-1 in the past four road outings as a 'dog of seven or more.

Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The news of QB Sam Darnold missing this game for mononucleosis changed the overall line dramatically. The total has been on the move, too, opening at 46 ? at most shops, freefalling to 44. QB Trevor Siemian will make his first start for Gang Green against a Browns team which was embarrassed in Week 1 at home. These teams met in primetime last season, with the Browns topping the Jets 21-17 in an 'under' result on Sept. 20, 2018.
Under the Lights

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Eagles and Falcons will tangle at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The under has cashed in five of the past seven games on the road for Philly, while going 9-4 in their past 13 games following a non-cover. The under is also 47-21 in the past 68 games after scoring more than 30 points in the previous outing.

For the Falcons, the under is 12-4 in their past 16 tries against teams with a winning record. The under is also 5-0 in the past five games after racking up 250 or more passing yards in the previous game. In addition, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 when scoring 15 or fewer points in their previous outing. In this series the under has connected in four straight meetings, too, while going 6-1 in the past seven tussles in Hotlanta.

 

[Cnotes53]

SNF - Eagles at Falcons
Matt Blunt

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Recent Head-to-Head Meetings:
Sept. 6, 2018 - Philadelphia 18 vs. Atlanta 12 (Eagles +1, Under 44)
Jan. 13, 2018 - Philadelphia 15 vs. Atlanta 10 (Eagles +2.5, Under 40.5)
Nov. 13, 2016 - Philadelphia 24 vs. Atlanta 15 (Eagles -1, Under 48.5)

It's a rematch of last year's season opener on SNF this week, as the 18-12 season opener in 2018 between Philadelphia and Atlanta was one that resembled last week's season opener in the sense that defense and some sloppy play dominated the day. This time around, the Eagles have to be pleased to have QB Carson Wentz back on the field, as Wentz shook off a slow start in the 1st half vs Washington a week ago to lead the Eagles to a 1-0 mark.

On the other side of the coin, it was another sloppy season opener for Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense a week ago, as a 21-0 halftime deficit turned into a 28-0 one by the start of the 4th quarter before a couple of garbage time TD's by the Falcons made the score a bit more respectable. Ryan did throw for 304 yards on 33-for-46 passing, but it was his two INT's that really stifled the Falcons early on in that game.

Returning home for the home opener should help Ryan and the Falcons on SNF, but will it be enough to pull off the upset as small home underdogs?

To start, at first glance, this is a line that looks to be right where it should be in terms of both side and total, as early action this week has come in support of the Eagles and the 'over'. Can't say that's too surprising after what we saw from each franchise in Week 1, but it's not like either side doesn't have plenty they'd like to improve on.

For the Eagles, it's two-fold, as they'd love to eliminate the sluggish start they had against Washington and tighten up their defensive play as well. Hindsight is always 20-20, but the Eagles appeared to be taking Washington extremely lightly in that first half ? on both sides of the ball ? and they paid for it by trailing 20-7 at the break. They were able to flip the switch coming out of the break before grabbing the lead and pushing it up to double-digits before giving up a garbage time TD to allow Washington ATS backers through the back door, but Eagles fans would like to see the execution and focus that their team brought from minutes 30-58 throughout the entirety of this Falcons game.

Whether the flipping of the switch was intentional or not, teams that go down that route tend to play with fire too often, and even though it's just Week 2, that is something to keep in mind for this contest. There are plenty in the betting market that are quite high on Philadelphia's long term prospects in 2019 (I am not one of them), but consistency effort is always key in achieving success in this league and that's the next step for Philadelphia in the coming weeks.

For the Falcons, it's about cleaning up some sloppy 1st half play as well, although their ineptitude continued on well through the 3rd quarter of their loss to Minnesota. This team has so many talented weapons on offense that putting up 25+ points a week shouldn't be too hard for this Falcons team to do ? especially at home. But mistakes in all forms are what hurt them a season ago, and if that becomes a theme in 2019, it's eventually going to fall on the shoulders of the head coach and questioning whether or not he's 'lost' the team. Being back at home this week should help the Falcons clean up some of those issues, but Philly's defense can be nasty when they want to be ? see the 2nd half vs Washington ? so Atlanta can't expect too much to come easy for them here.

Total Talk

This total has been bumped up a full 1.5 points since opening at 51, and with Wentz and Ryan and all the offensive weapons both sides have, it would only be that side of the total I'd look to get down on. Unless this number eventually gets to 53 by kickoff that tune probably shouldn't change, as being indoors in Atlanta on a fast track should help both offenses.

What could hurt this game climbing over that number is the idea that all the prime time games outside of the Texans/Saints on MNF last week have been an under bettors haven. We've seen too very sloppy Thursday Night Football games now that never even sniffed the closing total, and even that Texans/Saints game needed 13 points in the final minute to push that game 'over' the number.

Prime time games are generally going to get more 'over' love from the betting public and because of that you can find value on going 'under' some of these numbers. However, after the way these prime time games have gone so far, you know the NFL would prefer to see a much cleaner, crisper, contest on the national stage sooner rather then later, and this game has all the ingredients to potentially get that done. Betting percentages currently up at VegasInsider.com show a bit more then 70% of the bets have already come in on the high side of this number, forcing that move, and if you are late to the party in that regard you'll probably want to hit the 'over' before it hits 53.

Side Spiel

Those same betting percentages at the site are showing a number a little higher in the 70's in support for Philadelphia, pushing their number up about a point from the opener as well. Given that underdogs are now 4-1 ATS with three outright wins in NFL prime time games this year, the Falcons as a home dog do have some attractiveness to them in that regard. NFL teams hate to fall to 0-2 SU in a season right out of the gate, and with two division rivals already holding at least one victory, and Atlanta can't afford to fall too far behind this early again.

There is good news and bad news for Atlanta in this spot too, as they are 9-7 SU at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium since moving into the building, but this is also the first time in any of those 16 contests where they've entered the game as an underdog. Underdogs and 'under' have been the way to go in prime time games so far in 2019, and Falcons fans would love to add their team's name to that list of winners this year.

Final Thoughts

In the end, this game looks to be one that's probably best to pass on from both a flat side and total perspective given how early it is in the year and the market action/moves we've already seen. However, the notion that this line and total are about where they should be for this game makes the contest one of those potential games where 'teasing' the game any which way could end up hitting.

A 6-7 point teaser pairing either side with either total is the only way I'm really considering getting action down on this game, and from there it's all about personal preference really. Mathematically it does make a bit more sense to tease the Falcons side up through the +3 and +7 key numbers to go with either side of the total really (or an earlier game on Sunday), and teasing the Falcons side to the 'over' would be my preference here.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 2
September 13, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Second-year quarterback Sam Darnold has 14 career starts in the NFL with the New York Jets, going 4-10 in those games and he's been ruled 'out' for Monday's primetime game against Cleveland due to a case of mono. His back-up, Trevor Siemian has 24 NFL starts and the Broncos went 13-11 behind him. However, the sportsbooks are pushing the notion that the dropoff between the starter and back-up here is worth up to four points.

?Siemian had a great defense behind him at Denver that contributed to some of those wins,? said Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett. ?I think there?s a big difference between the two, especially how it affects their deep game because Darnold has a much bigger arm. It also downgrades one of their biggest weapons with wide receiver Robby Anderson having his biggest threat (deep ball) diminished.?

Bennett also mentioned that this situation was much different than the Jacoby Brissett-Andrew Luck dropoff after Luck retired from the Colts because Brissett was able to mesh with the team as the starter in camp.

Circa opened the Browns -2 ? on Sunday night and went to -3 Monday afternoon where they took a Jets bet to force a move to +3 -115 and then -120. They had got a message a few days ago that Darnold had mono, but didn?t think he?d miss, but they got official word he would miss on Wednesday morning and immediately adjusted to Browns -5 ? and within an hour were at -6 ?.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White suggested the dropoff with Darnold is only 1-point, and while I agree with a number closer to White?s than what the market has suggested, I also have to figure in the public perception into the number. Most of the public is dead set on the Browns to bounce nack after an awful 43-13 home loss to the Titans in Week 1, and now their decision is made easier because the Jets starting QB is out. The Browns are going to be a monster decision after all of Sunday?s risk rolls over into it. Everyone knows they?re going to be Browns -7 at some point this weekend so might as well get closer to it now and see if any bettor is willing to take +6 ? before the inevitable.

Lots of time until the kickoff on Monday, so let?s look at the riskiest of the 14 Sunday games.

?We?ve got three teams that are leading our ticket counts with parlays,? Bennett said. ?The top play is the Cowboys (-5 ? at Washington), followed by the Vikings (+3 at Green Bay), and the Chiefs (-7 at Oakland). We went to +3 with the Vikings on Tuesday and got immediate action on them.?

The Vikings are now +3 (-120) at Green Bay and the total has been on the move.

?This total has dropped from 46 down to 42 ?,? Bennett said. ?I think people don?t know what to make of the Packers offense at Chicago last week. Was it more about the Packers or was it the Bears defense as the reason for their struggles.?

Recent history may also have something to do with the move because seven of their last nine meetings have stayed 'under' the total. The Packers haven't beaten the Vikings the past two seasons (0-3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS). Plus, the Vikings-Under combo has cashed in three of those outcomes. The Vikings were two-point favorites at Green Bay in Week 2 last season and that contest ended in a 29-29 tie.

William Hill sportsbooks have the Vikings getting 74 percent of the cash in that game.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said their three biggest parlay risk games are the Patriots (-19 at Miami), Cowboys, and Bears (-2 ? at Denver).

William Hill?s top three most weighted sides in ticket counts are the Cowboys (91%), Bears (87%), and Chargers (84%). However, it?s the Lions that have received 65% of the cash against the Chargers as home underdogs (+2 ?).

William Hill and Station Casinos are the top two chains in Nevada in regards to parlay action. Between having brick and mortar locations throughout Southern Nevada, they also have the most tickets written through the phones. Stations has been doing the automated account wagering the longest in the state.

Circa is the new kids on the block and have one of the most attractive betting menus which features the lowest theoretic hold on futures in the state. But getting a large base of public parlay bettors has been hard to come by despite having a phone app. They kind of live and die based on the large wagers from sharps right now. The goal for most books is to get that public/sharp balance using each side to offset losses when one of them does well because they?re usually on different sides.

Bennett said Circa had three teams bet by their most respected money or what the industry knows as 'sharps' or 'pros.'

?They took the Jaguars +9 ?, the Raiders at +7 ? and also +7 (-110) and it was from the same guy, and we also got some play on the Saints at +2 ?,? Bennett said. ?We have the Rams -1 ? and this could be one of those games that flips to the Saints being favored. After the Panthers looking so awful last night, the Rams Week 1 road win doesn?t look as impressive anymore.?

Stations? McCormick?s sharp plays are also on the Saints, Raiders, and Lions. Sharps have also hit the Raiders at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook where VP Jay Kornegay says they bet the Redskins and Bears as well.

This will be the last time the Chiefs visit Oakland in this classic rivalry. The Chiefs come in covering their last eight September games but are just 2-2 against the spread against the Raiders in the last two seasons. Most impressive about the Raiders last week against the Broncos was the offensive line and they got really good QB play. They didn?t look like the 2018 Raiders, but it could also be a product of the Broncos not being very good.

?The Raiders are by far our most bet straight bet of the week,? said Atlantis Reno sportsbook director Marc Nelson who also said the Chiefs are his top public parlay side.

Another couple of mystery teams face each other at Baltimore with the Ravens -13 against the Cardinals, and that?s not even the highest spread of the week. The Patriots are -19 on the road at Miami.

?People don?t really know what to do with the Patriots and Ravens; the big numbers usually scare them off the games altogether,? Bennett said.

The Ravens looked amazing last week but their franchise record 59-points came against a Dolphins squad that appears to have thrown in the towel, which is rarely seen in the NFL because if you look bad on film as a player, then your career won?t last long. No team wants to bring on a quitter.

The Cardinals fought back with 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter at against the Lions and salaved a 27-27 tie in overtime. Was it a phony tie? Were the Lions just gassed in the fourth against the Cardinals no-huddle, and can they have similar success against the Ravens? And can QB Lamar Jackson have similar success against the Cardinals as he did by throwing 5 TDs against the Dolphins?

Lots to think about there, and when the public looks at -13 while being skeptical of both teams, most just say ?I?ll pass.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Circa Picks - Week 2
September 14, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 2
1) Pittsburgh -4 (636)

2) Dallas -5 (550)

3) Kansas City -6.5 (528)

4) Minnesota +3 (471)

5) Cincinnati -1.5 (464)

CIRCA - WEEK 2 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Tampa Bay (+6.5) 52 Carolina (-6.5) 131
Indianapolis (+3) 269 Tennessee (-3) 412
L.A. Chargers (-2) 294 Detroit (+2) 337
Buffalo (-1) 388 N.Y. Giants (+1) 244
Arizona (+13) 248 Baltimore (+13) 159
New England (-18) 140 Miami (+18) 167
Dallas (-5) 550 Washington (+5) 176
Jacksonville (+8) 276 Houston (-8) 159
Seattle (+4) 205 Pittsburgh (-4) 636
San Francisco (+1.5) 234 Cincinnati (-1.5) 464
Minnesota (+3) 471 Green Bay (-3) 237
Kansas City (-6.5) 528 Oakland (+6.5) 115
New Orleans (+2.5) 270 L.A. Rams (-2.5) 406
Chicago (-2.5) 321 Denver (+2.5) 334
Philadelphia (-1) 285 Atlanta (+1) 443
Cleveland (-6.5) 197 N.Y. Jets (+6.5) 182

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%

 

[Cnotes53]

SuperContest Picks - Week 2
September 14, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 2

1) Cleveland -2.5 (2,053)

2) Pittsburgh -4 (966)

2) Dallas -5 (966)

4) Cincinnati -2 (804)

5) L.A. Rams -2.5 (785)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 2 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Tampa Bay (+6.5) 93 Carolina (-6.5) 311

Indianapolis (+3) 455 Tennessee (-3) 711

L.A. Chargers (-2.5) 495 Detroit (+2.5) 594

Buffalo (-1.5) 492 N.Y. Giants (+1.5) 439

Arizona (+13) 367 Baltimore (-13) 266

New England (-18.5) 198 Miami (+18.5) 304

Dallas (-5) 966 Washington (+5) 277

Jacksonville (+9) 501 Houston (-9) 206

Seattle (+4) 296 Pittsburgh (-4) 966

San Francisco (+2) 300 Cincinnati (-2) 804

Minnesota (+3) 687 Green Bay (-3) 421

Kansas City (-7) 616 Oakland (+7) 353

New Orleans (+2.5) 374 L.A. Rams (-2.5) 785

Chicago (-2.5) 618 Denver (+2.5) 533

Philadelphia (-1.5) 374 Atlanta (+1.5) 729

Cleveland (-2.5) 2053 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) 46


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 - - -
3 - - -
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -