CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 30-16-1
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 23-23-1
Against the Spread 15-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+5.5, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 32-31
Saints (+5, ML +200) at Seahawks, 33-27
Lions (+4, ML +180) at Eagles, 27-24
Texans (+3, ML +145) at Chargers, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-22.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-6
Vikings (-9) vs. Raiders, 34-14
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos, 27-16
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Ravens, 33-28
Rams (-4.5) at Browns, 20-13

Stacking Dimes

-- The New York Giants (+5.5, ML +210) rallied for the 32-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the first-career start for rookie QB Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He replaced two-time Super Bowl winner QB Eli Manning, and his selection was viewed as a bit of a reach by some. However, if Sunday's game is any indication, the G-Men appear to have made the right decision in selecting him, as well as making the change in Week 3. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four runs, 28 yards and two more touchdowns, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Legend of Danny Dimes grows after a tremendous preseason. He went into the huddle at one point of the second quarter and said, "Let's f***ing score!", which was surprising to his teammates, as he reportedly had never been overheard swearing in the past. Elias Sports Bureau reports that since the 1970 merger only Jones and former Detroit Lions QB Eric Hipple are the only players to pass for two TDs and run for two TDs in his first-career start.

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns were much better in their second home game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams than they were in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but the results were the same - a loss and a non-cover. The entire secondary for the Browns was inactive, but they nearly tied the game up in the closing seconds. The Browns, who were blown out 43-13 in Week 1 by the Titans, moved inside the 5-yard line of the Rams in the final ticks. However, QB Baker Mayfield scrambled to the right and was picked off on the final play, falling 20-13 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. The public helped the books take a huge bath as a result of the favorite Rams covering the 4.5 points.

Total Recall

-- The over went 9-6 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, quite a bit different than Week 2 when the under connected in 13 of 16 outings.

The highest total on the board was the Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs (52) ended up covering fairly handily with 61 total points. That was the only total in the 50's. The second-highest total was the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers (49) game, which went just under with 47 points. QB Philip Rivers was picked off in the red zone to end the threat of overtime, and the threat of an over ticket. The two games with totals at 48, the aforementioned Giants-Bucs game, and Atlanta Falcons-Indianapolis Colts games each saw 'over' results.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars (38) game, which easily hits the under with a total of 27 points. It started out looking like it might be high-scoring, as QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes. However, a scoreless second quarter, and a total of three points in the third put the nail in the coffin for those holding 'over' tickets.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 through the first two primetime games of Week 3, with the low Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears-Washington Redskins (41) still pending. The 'over' is 1-8 (11.1%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of the weekend occurred in that Giants-Bucs battle, as New York RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the second quarter. He was on crutches and in a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. The injury didn't keep him from hobbling over and celebrating with his teammates following the win.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) entered Sunday's game questionable against the Falcons due to a quad injury, and he aggravated the ailment.

-- Patriots WR Julian Edelman (chest) left with a chest injury suffered against the Jets. He had X-rays which came back negative.

-- Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) exited early due to an ankle injury for the team which was already missing starter RB Damien Williams (knee).

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns travel to meet the Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The Browns have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five road games, although they're 6-16-1 ATS in the past 23 inside the division. They did a good job shutting down the running game of the Rams in Week 2, but facing QB Lamar Jackson is a whole other animal. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-4 ATS in the past four inside the division. While Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, the road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five, and 6-2 in the previous eight battles in Charm City.

-- The Patriots have dominated the Bills in the past, but it's a new day in Buffalo. We'll see if it's the same old results. Buffalo has fired out to a 3-0 SU record, and they're 2-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their first three. New England is 20-8 ATS in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. They've really made Western New York their home, going 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 trips to Buffalo. The road team is also 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 in this series.

-- In another divisional matchup, Jones and the Giants will look to carry over their momentum from Tampa back to MetLife Stadium against the 'Skins. Washington has covered just once in the past six games inside the NFC East, although that one cover happened in Week 1 in Philadelphia. They're 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on the road, too. The G-Men have posted a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the past eight against the NFC, including their outright win against the Bucs. If you're a fan of totals, the 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 battles in New Jersey, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Seahawks and Cardinals hook up in the desert on Sunday afternoon. QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are searching for their first win, going 0-2-1 SU. However, they are 2-1 ATS in the first three, including a pair of 'over' results at home. This series has been all about the road team, as the visitors are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine in this series. Seattle has an impressive 4-1-1 ATS mark in the past six trips to the desert, too. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Glendale, too.

-- The Vikings and Bears get together in the Windy City, and Chicago looks to maintain its dominance against the number. The Bears are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 at home against the Vikings, and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under has hit in four of the past five at Soldier Field with 11 unders in the past 15 meetings overall.

-- On Monday Night Football the winless Bengals and winless Steelers square off at Heinz Field. The Bengals have posted a 2-0 ATS mark in their two games so far on the road, and they have covered their past six away games dating back to last season. Cincinnati is also 7-2 ATS in the past nine divisional matchups. Pittsburgh has dominated, going 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 home games against the Bengals, but it's a new day with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) already done and QB Mason Rudolph under center.

 

[Cnotes53]

MNF - Bears at Redskins
Tony Mejia

Bears at Redskins (-5, 41), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Hopefully the guys in stripes relax with the penalties in Landover since points aren?t likely to be plentiful and Tom Brady may be tuned in with his itchy Twitter trigger-finger loaded and ready.

The rumor around the NFL on Sunday was that officiating crews had been told to relax some on calling every single holding penalty, which has been a point of emphasis early on. A fun day of football unfolded with multiple high-scoring games serving as the top buffet offerings, but Monday?s menu item pits a pair of teams that have started slowly and may mix in some inclement weather to deliver an unwatchable product that you have to stay tuned in for presuming the game is at least close.

Washington (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) hasn?t looked particularly effective since the first half of its Week 1 loss to the Eagles in which it blew a 17-0 lead before avoiding a double-digit loss via touchdown with six seconds left. The defense has given up a pair of 30-point games against Philadelphia and Dallas while Keenum has thrown for 600 yards and five scores without being in position to win a game come fourth quarter.

Chicago (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) counterpart Mitchell Trubisky flopped in the season-opening home loss to Green Bay and made up for a brutal game in Denver by putting the team in position to steal back a 16-14 win they nearly let get away, completing a 25-yard pass to Allen Robinson on 4th-and-15 with a second left to send up a 53-yard field goal from new kicker Eddy Pineiro. That kick has completely changed the narrative regarding the Bears, who have scored a single touchdown in two games. Instead of panic setting in, head coach Matt Nagy is encouraged that Trubisky will improve as his own play-calling does, not to mention thankful that the defense has surrendered just 12 points per game to give Chicago a chance.

Robinson has looked effective as the No. 1 receiver, but the rest of the offense has really struggled and Trubisky has been especially disappointing. Nagy has seen enough of his erratic throws in practice to trust his run game ahead of even short passes, while an offensive line that has dealt with excellent defensive fronts probably won?t catch the break of missing Washington?s top player, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. Read the injury report portion of this preview below for more on his availability, but the likelihood is that he?ll be out there after missing the majority of snaps thus far following a first-half injury in Philadelphia.

The Bears have yet to allow a point in the third quarter, which is a great sign new coordinator Chuck Pagano has a strong feel for what he inherited personnel-wise from Vic Fangio, who moved on to become head coach in Denver. Between his penchant for exotic blitzes and the trust he puts in his defensive guys to take chances and make plays, the Bears? alpha group remains the defense, and they?ll need to step up to throw Keenum off his rhythm and take advantage of a young receiving corps led by rookie Terry McLaurin, who has touchdown catches in his first two games as a pro.

Bears fans will get another look at old rival Adrian Peterson, who is back in an RB1 role due to an injury to Derrius Guice but was held to just 25 yards on 10 carries by the Cowboys. Washington needs a vintage performance from Peterson to keep the Bears defense from coming after Keenum, who will again be working behind an offensive line missing long-time anchor Trent Williams. The All-Pro left tackle remains away from the team in a contract dispute, which combined with tight end Jordan Reed?s continued absence due to a concussion, leaves Washington awfully inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball.

Keenum has responded thus far but will be seeing the best defense he?s faced thus far. The worst-case scenario for the ?Skins would be a double-digit deficit that would allow the Bears to disregard their run defense and come after him. To avoid such a fate, the Greg Manusky-led defensive unit that has the coordinator on the hot seat by coming in 30th in the NFL in yards and points allowed can?t afford to let Trubisky find a flow on the road. The third-year starter taken ahead of league MVP Patrick Mahomes and Houston?s Deshaun Watson went 5-3 on the road last season but threw just five touchdown passes away from Soldier Field and was far less aggressive. We?ll see if Nagy is more willing to take the training wheels off despite his inconsistency thus far in 2019.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast and could potentially be in the mix by halftime, which could turn this into a punt-fest if both coordinators stall out conservatively waiting for the other team to make the first mistake. The total opened as high as 42.5 at various shops but has been bet down to 41 and may continue to dip if money comes in on the 'under.'

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Last Monday the public recognized the mismatch with Browns-Jets and were rewarded. Sharp action was rather light until +7 appeared they were scooped up immediately," said Berg, who you can follow on Twitter @Percentberg. "Tonight's tilt is a bit different as both teams have really struggled out of the gate. Obviously the Bears thus far are a bigger disappointment between the two but the optimism is still reflected in Chicago as a -5.5-point favorite at Caesars.

"We took a highly regarded bet on the Bears at 4.5. The public bettors don't look as eager to back Chicago but most of them will eventually end up on them by kickoff."

Chicago Bears
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current):7/4 to 14/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 12/1 to 25/1

Washington Redskins
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 40/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 150/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 300/1 to 1000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Neither the Bears nor Redskins have impressed over their first two games, and odds to win the NFC and Super Bowl at Westgate, but these teams are certainy perceived differently. The Bears have underperformed with Trubisky not taking a step forward yet and the offense struggling, but they're still regarded as dangerous in the fairly wide-open NFC. The perception of the 'Skins is that they'll finish among the lowest of the low in the conference, so odds may not be more lucrative that now if you believe a home upset here will spark a revival few others see coming.

The Packers, Vikings and Lions are off to strong starts in the NFC North, so a setback here would put the Bears at the bottom of a division where they they came into the week even with Minnesota (14/5) and ahead of Detroit (13/2). Green Bay (5/4) is the division favorite. Dallas and Philadelphia opened the week as co-favorites (10/11) to win the NFC East, so congratulations if you got in on the Cowboys before those numbers are adjusted following Sunday's results.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bears were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet up to 5.5 points on Sunday. The number is likely to fluctuate between 4.5 points and 5.5 points up until kickoff.

The money line opened at Chicago -200 at Caesars and has since climbed to -230. If you're in on the home underdog 'Skins to pick up their first victory, they've climbed from +175 to +190.

INJURY CONCERNS

Allen, a former Alabama standout who has quietly become one of the NFL's most formidable young forces up front, has vowed to play after suffering a knee injury and participated in full on Saturday. Safety Montae Nicholson will also go after dealing with a foot issue and tackle Morgan Moses (knee) will try and help make up Williams' absence.

The 'Skins will be missing LB Cassanova McKinzy and may be without corner Quinton Dunbar, so a suspect secondary could be even thinner. CB Fabian Moreau should play but has been bothered by an ankle issue. Veteran CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie landed on IR earlier this week.

The Bears appear to be the healthier group, ruling out only DT Bilal Nichols. Standout safety Eddie Jackson should play through a shoulder issue and nose tackle Eddie Goldman practiced through an oblique injury on Saturday and is expected to play. Pineiro, on the heels of his heroic season-altering make, is questionable after sustaining an oblique injury in the team weight room on Friday. If he can't play, Chicago will have until 3 PM ET on Monday to sign another kicker.

RECENT MEETINGS (Redskins 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS last nine; OVER 5-3-1)

12/24/16 Redskins 41-21 at Bears (WASH -3, 49)
12/13/15 Redskins 24-21 at Bears (WASH +3.5, 43)
10/20/13 Redskins 45-41 vs. Bears (WASH +1, 47.5)
10/24/10 Redskins 17-14 at Bears (WASH +3, 40)
12/6/07 Redskins 24-16 vs. Bears (WASH -3, 40)
9/11/05 Redskins 9-7 vs. Bears (CHI +6, 33)
10/17/04 Redskins 13-10 at Bears (WASH +1.5, 33.5)
12/21/03 Bears 27-24 vs. Redskins (WASH +4, 35)
12/23/01 Bears 20-15 at Redskins (CHI +1, 33)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 4 currently has the Bears as a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings. The Redskins were listed as a 2-point underdog against the Daniel Jones' led Giants, but that number figures to change given Saquon Barkley's likely absence.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season?s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It?s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England ? despite the Antonio Brown drama ? sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games ? both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

?Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,? Murray said. ?We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills? offense in this game. Their defense is legit.?

There weren?t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won?t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees? absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

?We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),? Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. ?The books will need the Saints big in this game.?

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn?t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn?t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

?The Eagles are very banged up right now,? Murray said. ?The Packers are 3-0 but weren?t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.?

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

?It?s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,? Murray said. ?Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.?

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.

 

[Cnotes53]

Books take a loss in Week 3
September 23, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The Rams 20-13 Sunday night win at Cleveland had a massive effect on how Nevada sportsbooks fared in Week 3 action and let?s just say Joe Public did extremely well to the game which was tied into several of their winning sides from earlier in the day.

The books sweated out each of the first 13 games in the day only to have this one powder keg of risk in a game determine their entire day. The Rams opened -3 EVEN and moved up to -4.5 by kickoff in part because of bets but also because of large parlay risk ready to cash with the Rams covering.

?We?re getting beat up,? said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback prior to kickoff of the late game. ?And we can?t get out of it even if the Browns win. There?s no way out, we?re destined to lose and if the Rams win it?ll be a semi-ugly day. Not a Black Sunday type of loss, but still semi-ugly.?

MGM books were not alone. Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP Jay Kornegay said they had a few 10-team parlays cashing (550-to-1 ties win parlay cards) and that they went 1-2 in their biggest decisions before pending Browns decision, who they needed huge.

?Our day is up to the Browns,? said William Hill?s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich.

The books that had good results in the first 13 games also needed the Browns to stay in the black for the day.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis said they were having a ?Monster day with the first 13 games, but it?s mostly gone if the Rams get there.?

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said before kickoff ?We?re OK right now, but Rams and over (48) make it a nothing day.?

The combination of sharps doing well, the public hitting a few parlays with the Rams sealing the deal was huge, and then there were also the teasers showing how damaging they can be for the house.

?Seven of the eight home favorites in the early games won on the teasers and our teaser loss on the day accounts for half of our overall loss on the day,? Stoneback said.

MGM books got saved from the Eagles not covering on the teaser, but they got triple whacked in sharp straight bets taking the Lions.

?The Lions were bet down from +7 to +4, the sharps were all over them this week,? Stoneback said. ?It was our worst game of the day (until the Rams).?

The Lions 27-24 win at Philadelphia was also an attractive play for teaser bettors getting over the key number of going across +7 and pass +10.

Sharps also did well with the Ravens forcing the Chiefs to drop from 6.5-point home favorites down to -4.5 by kickoff.

?For once we were in a position to be rooting the Chiefs and Over, but the Ravens got there,? Stoneback said.

Technically, the Chiefs covered the closing number with the 33-28 win, and the game went over 52 total points, but the damage was done on the way down the spread ladder. Stoneback also said there was a missing element in Week 3.

?Sharp money overwhelmed the public?s money for the first time this season,? he said.

The usual situation is that sharps and the public are on different sides so when paying out a bunch from one side there?s always that surplus from the other side. But the big parlay action wasn?t there at MGM books on the strip like it was the first two weeks, both weeks where their books did well while the sharps didn?t.

?We had sharp money also on the Steelers and they bet the Cowboys early at -21 and we got late Carolina money also,? Stoneback said. ?The Saints actually saved us from a total disaster on the day. They bet the Seahawks at -4 up to -5.5. We also needed Tampa Bay.?

How about the new era of the Giants with rookie quarterback Daniel Jones? A sensational debut for the sixth overall draft pick throwing for 336 yards and accounting for four TD?s, the last being a 7-yard run with 1:16 remaining to take their first lead of the game 32-31. The Bucs drove down to the field to set up a winning 34-yard field goal for rookie Matt Gay, but it went wide-right just like another Giants opponent did at the buzzer in a Super Bowl played at Tampa in 1991.

?The Giants were one of those teams that were popular with sharps and the public because there was a lot of hype surrounding Daniel Jones after he had a stellar preseason,? Stoneback said.

As the Giants new era begins on a high note, they also lost running back Saquon Barkley with a high ankle sprain and no timetable for his return has been set.

Overall, the favorites went 6-8 against the spread on Sunday aided by all five afternoon road underdogs covering and the over went 9-5.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
September 23, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of September 23rd

If you were able to catch last week's piece you'll know that the angle of backing those winless ATS teams out on the road in Week 3 turned out to be profitable once again.

Seven different teams fit that role for Week 3, and with Chicago's outcome still pending tonight, the other six (Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, NYG, NYJ) ended up going 5-1 ATS. Only the hapless Dolphins failed to cover the number on Sunday, while three of those teams (Carolina, New Orleans, NYG) managed to pull off the outright victory as well.

Going against the Rams was a result that most oddsmakers across the country wanted to see cash, but LA was having none of it. It's hard to say if LA went out and got that game on SNF vs the Browns, or if Cleveland just remains too undisciplined for their own good. The Browns over-thought some playcalling decisions as well, and yet, they still had a 1st and goal to tie the game with under a minute left. Fading the money earners just didn't work out on Sunday night.

This week we are staying in the NFL, and while something like discussing the fact that division games are on a 4-10 O/U run so far in 2019 ? keep that in mind for the Cleveland/Baltimore, New England/Buffalo, Washington/NYG, Seattle/Arizona, Minnesota/Chicago, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games next week ? there are actually two more specific spots involving two of the seven 3-0 SU teams in this league that need to come to light. With Detroit being 2-0-1 SU there are actually eight remaining unbeaten squads, but it's two that entered 2019 as legit Super Bowl contenders that present solid betting angles. So let's get right to them.

Who's Hot

Games featuring an AFC team vs. NFC team with the home side as underdogs are a perfect 5-0 to the 'Under' in 2019
Non-conference games tend to lack the hatred something like rivalry or even conference tilts bring has there can be lingering memories from recent playoffs etc that add extra elements to those games. But unless you are one of the few teams that have met New England in the Super Bowl in recent years, AFC/NFC games tend to lack the animosity that can be associated with 'under' plays. There isn't the same type of familiarity in terms of understanding what the opposition prefers to run, and coaching staffs prefer to focus on more immediate concerns like divisional rivals because the easiest path to a playoff berth is by winning one's division.

So while you will hear thoughts about non-conference games being ones that can fly 'over' the number more often given that lack of hatred, that's not particularly been the case this year (6-8 O/U overall this year) in general. But more specifically, when the home team is catching points in these non-conference tilts, you only want to look low. Week 4 brings us only one specific spot where this run will be tested, as it does involve Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered, undefeated, Kansas City Chiefs.

KC is laying about a TD in Detroit on Sunday, and the total has already seen the vig get a few more cents added to the 'over' side of things. Both teams do own a 2-1 O/U record on the year as well, and with KC averaging 33.7 points per game and Detroit averaging 22.3 points per game offensively, just having both sides hit those averages would see an 'over' ticket cash.

However, defensively, neither side gives up more then 21.3 points per game on average, and given the specific home/road splits here, KC's defense comes in at 18 ppg allowed on the road, with Detroit clocking in at 10 ppg at home. Extremely small sample size for those numbers to be sure, but if you zoom out and look at the scenario on the whole ? home underdog against a non-conference team ? you can see why 'unders' in these games do tend to make a lot of sense.

First off, as a home underdog, you know you are up against it in terms of talent, skill, etc and there are certain generic strategies in that role that can/should be employed. Shortening the game by controlling time of possession and moving the sticks with the running game is one of those, and it doesn't matter who the Chiefs opponent is or where they are playing, limiting KC's time with the ball is something all 29 other teams are looking to do against KC. Detroit may not have the best running game in the league, but Stafford's dink-and-dunk approach throwing the ball plays into that as well.

Furthermore, offensively execution tends to come a bit tougher in hostile territory for these road favorites. Whether it be crowd noise, general discomfort, or the home dog defense 'rising up' to play over their heads against a better squad, KC's offense might not work as smoothly as some may think. KC might have scored 61 points in their last two games combined, but you take out the 2nd quarter, and the Chiefs just have 10 total points in all of those six other frames. They've been blanked in four of those quarters so it's not like they can't be held down as it is.

So chances are we see this total likely go higher before it goes down, but with that hook sitting there on a key number like 53 and plus-money on the 'under' to boot, it may not hurt to get at least a partial unit down on this 'under' in Week 4 and go from there.

Who's Not

Backing home favorites in the first five weeks of the season, prior to playing a road game on Thursday Night Football
(2-9 ATS and SU last three years)
Thursday Night football games continue to generally be slopfests in terms of quality of play as the short week is just tough to overcome for all involved. Maybe one day that will change and we can get rid of them all together (highly doubtful) and have weekly MNF double-headers or something instead, but until then, I'll gladly try to use an angle like this to cash.

Simply put, when teams are laying chalk at home the Sunday prior, and then have a quick turnaround WITH travel for TNF, it's those Sunday games that tend to get glossed over. Not only are home favorites in that role 2-9 against the number, but ALL NINE ATS losses have been outright losers as well. That's really quite shocking when you step back and think about it.

It's not like they are loaded with losses by two or three-point home favorites either. Last year we saw Minnesota lose to Buffalo (27-6) laying 16.5 points prior to a road TNF game, and even the great New England Patriots fell victim to this trend back in 2017 when they lost at home to Carolina (33-30) as nine-point home chalk.

And while it may feel like after last week's piece, I am picking on LA Rams fans/backers, I can assure you that I'm not. But this week, it's the undefeated Los Angeles Rams who find themselves in this dreaded role, currently laying -10.5 at home to a visiting Tampa team prior to the Rams travelling to Seattle for a divisional game on TNF in Week 5.

Considering Tampa's likely to be quite salty this week after blowing that big lead at home to the New York Giants with a rookie QB starting, it's not hard to figure the Bucs will be out to be at their best this Sunday. Offensively, they are more then capable of keeping up with LA should the game be a back-and-forth affair, and Tampa themselves know how hard it is being in the role that LA finds themselves in, as the Bucs got burned by being in that spot in Week 1 as small home chalk to the 49ers.

That Bucks loss in Week 1 started the 0-3 ATS and SU run this trend has been on just this year alone with Philly losing at home yesterday as the latest victim. So my apologies go out to Rams supporters this week for the second week in a row. You proved me wrong last week, and hopefully as the year goes on the Rams will find themselves in a favorable 'play on' role for one of these pieces, but it's taking the points or nothing with Tampa Bay for me this weekend.

 

[Cnotes53]

Panthers rule QB Newton out for Week 4 game against Texans
September 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Carolina coach Ron Rivera says quarterback Cam Newton will miss his second straight game when the Panthers take on the Houston Texans because of a mid-foot sprain.

Kyle Allen, who threw four touchdown passes in Carolina's 38-20 win over the Cardinals on Sunday, will get this second start for the Panthers.

Rivera said Monday on the team's website that Newton needs more time to rest his foot and get better.

Newton originally hurt his foot in Carolina's third preseason game and then aggravated the injury a Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL ICYMI: Maybe the Giants found a new QB in Daniel Jones
September 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

So maybe all those fans and media members blasting the choice of Daniel Jones with the No. 6 overall pick in the NFL draft were being a little hasty in their judgment of him and New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman.

And maybe, just maybe, so are the folks getting ready to put Jones in the Pro Football Hall of Fame about six months and - checks notes - one start later.

Still, Jones' debut in place of Eli Manning as the Giants' starting QB was an auspicious one, including erasing an 18-point deficit, even if the 32-31 victory over the Buccaneers on Sunday came courtesy of a botched 34-yard field goal attempt by Tampa Bay's Matt Gay (after a questionable decision by coach Bruce Arians to purposely take a 5-yard penalty for delay of game to make the kick longer than it had to be).

''Probably the story of the game will be the rookie quarterback,'' New York coach Pat Shurmur said at his news conference, stating the obvious and likely relishing it. ''You guys tell me: I thought he did a pretty good job, first time out. ... We believed in him from the day we drafted him.''

So there.

Jones, who played in college at Duke, went 23 of 36 for 336 yards and zero interceptions, throwing for a pair of touchdowns and rushing for two more, including the go-ahead score on a 7-yard run on fourth down with 76 seconds left. Even inspired star running back Saquon Barkley to giddily hop off the field, keeping his injured right ankle and crutches aloft.

''He keeps passing the test, in our mind. Until this afternoon, he hadn't played in a regular-season NFL game,'' Shurmur said about Jones. ''Maybe I'm seeing it wrong, but he didn't disappoint.''

Jones is the first rookie since 1970 with at least 300 yards passing, two TDs through the air and another two on the ground in a game.

And this silly stat was making the rounds on Twitter: Jones now is 1-0 when trailing by 18, while Manning never won once when facing such a deficit.

On the other hand, Manning has a 2-0 edge in Super Bowl championships.

Manning, to the surprise of no one, spent time with Jones on the sideline Sunday, offering up a congratulatory first bump after the new guy's first scoring run.

''I can't thank him enough for his support throughout the week,'' Jones said, ''and today throughout the game.''

Here's what else people are talking about after the third Sunday of the NFL season:

BYE, AB

The Antonio Brown saga just keeps unfolding, and unraveling, with the receiver who's been accused of rape and trying to intimidate another woman, and who was jettisoned by three teams in 2019, declaring on Twitter that he ''will not be playing in the NFL anymore.''

He also typed up, then deleted, a scorched-earth rant before the day's games kicked off, taking shots at New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, among others.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick, whose team employed Brown for one game, wouldn't respond to a reporter's question Sunday about the receiver - days after cutting short a session with the media because he didn't want to discuss a player who at the time was still on his team's roster.

PATRIOTS' D

Speaking of the Patriots, their defense has done something no other team has done in the Super Bowl era: not allowed a TD to an opposing offense via a pass or run through three games.

Then again, New England hasn't exactly been facing The Greatest Show on Turf. Its opponents before beating the Luke Falk-led New York Jets 30-14 in Week 3? The Steelers, the team Brown played for last season, and the Miami Dolphins. Combined record: 0-9.

The Patriots, let's not forget, are the reigning Super Bowl champions, and they still have Belichick running the defense and Tom Brady leading the offense. They're also not the only club to take full advantage of a weak-as-can-be schedule so far. The Bills are also 3-0, and they've played the Giants, the Jets and the Cincinnati Bengals, who dropped to 0-3 with Sunday's 21-17 loss at Buffalo.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at WAS 08:15 PM

WAS +5.0

O 41.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Trubisky, Bears get offense on track, beat Redskins 31-15
September 23, 2019
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LANDOVER, Md. (AP) Mitchell Trubisky threw his first three touchdown passes of the season, all to Taylor Gabriel in the second quarter, to finally get the Chicago Bears' offense going and build a big lead that held up to beat the Washington Redskins 31-15 on Monday night.

Trubisky lit up a porous Redskins defense on 25 of 31 passing for 231 yards in the offensive explosion he predicted would come this week. Chicago (2-1) had just a 1-yard touchdown run to show for its first two games before Trubisky and the passing attack broke out against Washington (0-3).

The 2017 second overall pick who entered the night with a completion percentage of 58.3 and ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt completed passes to nine different receivers. Trubisky had 173 yards in the first half alone before throwing an interception at the goal line in the third quarter.

With scores of 1, 3 and 36 yards , Gabriel joined Mike Ditka in 1963 as the only Bears receivers with three TD catches in the first half of a game. Gabriel made six catches for 75 yards before leaving in the second half with a concussion.

The Bears took advantage of five turnovers by Redskins quarterback Case Keenum: two interceptions by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, including a pick six, another by Kyle Fuller and fumbles forced by Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan. With the offense up to the defense's speed in the first half, Chicago put up 28 points in two quarters after scoring a total of 19 the past two weeks, 12 of which came on field goals from Eddy Pineiro .

Mack had two of the Bears' four sacks to continue a dominant start by the defense that didn't give up a Washington TD until midway through the third quarter. Keenum's two TD passes came long after fans chanted for rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins and booed the Redskins off the field at halftime.

NOW WHAT?

Washington's defense that wilted in the second half of its first two losses had few answers for Trubisky all game Monday. Eight days after coach Jay Gruden said, ''I don't think we have to push the panic button yet,'' some significant changes could be coming soon.

Before Gruden's job security is really in question, defensive coordinator Greg Manusky looks like the logical target as the first coach to take the fall. Washington's defense ranked in 21st and 17th in the NFL in Manusky's first two seasons in charge and is on pace to finish worse than that this year.

The ''Let's go Haskins'' chants notwithstanding, the Redskins are far more likely to turn to longtime backup Colt McCoy if they make a change at the position. McCoy is working toward being healthy again nine months after breaking his right leg.

HA HA GETS LAST LAUGH

When the Redskins signed former New York Giants safety Landon Collins, it effectively spelled the end of their chances of re-signing Clinton-Dix, a trade acquisition last year from Green Bay who played nine games for them. Clinton-Dix made his old team pay with a first quarter interception he returned 37 yards for his first career touchdown.

Clinton-Dix for good measure picked off Keenum in the third quarter and returned it 59 yards.

JUST FOR KICKS

Pineiro, who was questionable because of a knee injury suffered while lifting weights, missed a 44-yard field goal attempt in the third quarter and was good from 38 yards in the fourth. ''Eddy Money'' was 4 of 4 going into the night, including a 53-yard game-winner at Denver in Week 2.

MONDAY NIGHT SADNESS

The Redskins lost their eighth consecutive Monday night game, tying for the second-longest streak in league history. They've now lost 17 of their past 17 Monday night home games.

INJURIES

Bears: DT Akiem Hicks left early in the fourth quarter with a knee injury. ... RT Bobby Massie was a surprise scratch after not being listed on the injury report. ... DE Bilal Nichols was out with a broken hand.

Redskins: Briefly lost RG Brandon Scherff, C Chase Roullier and LG Ereck Flowers to various injuries. ... TE Jordan Reed (concussion) missed a third consecutive game and CB Quinton Dunbar (knee) was out for the second week in a row.

UP NEXT

Bears: Host former Redskins QB Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

Redskins: Look to avoid an 0-4 start when they visit Daniel Jones and the New York Giants on Sunday.

 

[Cnotes53]

WEEK 4

Thursday, September 26, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers

Sunday, September 29, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM New England Patriots Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Carolina Panthers Houston Texans
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Washington Redskins New York Giants
4:05 PM Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Los Angeles Rams
4:25 PM Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears
4:25 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos
8:20 PM Dallas Cowboys New Orleans Saints

Monday, September 30, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers


*****************************


NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/23/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1..........53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1...........57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0...........75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0..........61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0........... 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............52-40-1........ 56.52%.......... +40.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................20 - 18............+6.50.............24 - 16 ...........+32.00..........+38.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack

Six interesting spreads for this week?s college football card:

? Penn State (-6.5) @ Maryland

? Arizona State @ California (-4.5)

? Wake Forest (-6.5) @ Boston College

? Iowa State (-2.5) @ Baylor

? Minnesota @ Purdue (-1)

? Washington State # Utah (-5)

Quote of the Day
?After carefully thinking through this process with my family and coach Holgorsen, I have decided the opportunity to redshirt this season gives me the best chance to develop as a player, earn my degree and set me up for the best success in the future. I?m looking forward to being part of the success of this program going forward.?
Houston Cougars? QB D?Eriq King, who will redshirt this season

Tuesday?s quiz
Who was QB the last time the Redskins won a Super Bowl?

Monday?s quiz
Jim Mora Sr coached the Saints and the Colts.

Sunday?s quiz
Jim Mora Jr was the football coach at UCLA before Chip Kelly.

***********************

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??

13) Bears 31, Redskins 15:
? Trubisky was 20-23/173 passing in first half.
? Chicago led 28-3 at half, but it was 28-13 and Redskins had ball on Chicago?s 15-yard line before Keenum lost a fumble.

? If Keenum isn?t going to protect the ball, might as well start rookie QB Haskins now; Redskins? bye isn?t until Week 10. Haskins needs to learn; you learn by doing.
? Last 18 times Redskins hosted Monday Night Football, they lost 17 times.

12) San Diego Padres fired manager Andy Green Saturday, but they probably fired the wrong guy. GM AJ Preller has been GM of the Padres since August 2014; since ?15, San Diego is 338-454, their last playoff appearance was in 2006.

Preller was once suspended by MLB for a month in the late 2000?s when he worked for the Texas Rangers in their international operations department; MLB later suspended Preller for another 30 days without pay in 2016 following an investigation into his trade of P Drew Pomeranz from San Diego to the Red Sox.

The guy is a cheater who got caught by MLB twice; he hasn?t improved the Padres very much, despite San Diego?s ownership shelling out major money on free agents Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. How does he keep his job?

11) Royals? manager Ned Yost, who won a World Series title four years ago, will retire after this week?s games wind up. Yost managed the Royals since 2010.

10) When Buffalo Bills scored a TD early in their game Sunday, Cincinnati jumped offsides on the PAT, so Buffalo took the penalty, went for two points and grabbed an early 8-0 lead. Not a lot of coaches do that.

9) SouthPoint posts a fun prop on football days; which team will score the first TD in the early games? Green Bay (8-1) was Sunday?s winner this past week.

8) Milwaukee Brewers are averaging 35,870 fans per home game; Minnesota Twins are averaging 28,191, even though they?re having a great breakthrough season. Milwaukee has a dome at Miller Park, so fans never have to worry about the weather; Minnesota doesn?t.

Why didn?t the Twins build a retractable domed stadium? They cost themselves a lot of money both in April and September, when the weather is often dicey.

7) Last week, NBA changed a rule, making teams set their starting lineup 30 minutes before tip-off, as opposed to 10 minutes before tip-off, which helps coaches and gamblers.

6) On April 10, the Indians lost 4-1 in Detroit; it was the only time in 19 meetings this season that the hapless Tigers beat Cleveland. Indians are in a dogfight for the AL Wild Card; they?re 18-1 vs Detroit, 72-62 vs everyone else.

5) Baltimore Orioles have lost 100+ games for the second year in a row for the first time ever; hard to believe that they were in the playoffs three short years ago, losing the Wild Card game 5-2 to Toronto in 11 innings.

4) Handicapping is difficult: we mentioned the other day how seven QB?s started in NFL?s Week 3 who didn?t start in Week 1; you figure those teams might be at a disadvantage, but the seven teams went 6-1 against the spread in Week 3.

3) World Series starts the same night as the NBA regular season, which is a little bit odd on the NBA?s part. Maybe they figure the same people aren?t watching both sports.

2) Miami Dolphins are 17-point home underdogs agains the Chargers Sunday; this is only the fifth time since 1980 that an NFL team was a road favorite of 17+ points.

Biggest NFL pointspread ever? The winless ?76 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were +27 at Pittsburgh and lost 42-0, but they were an expansion team, and a very bad one.

1) Tip of the cap to the people at the Apple Store in Crossgates Mall here in Albany; picked up a new iPhone Friday, and as usual, their service was excellent. Scott was very patient and answered all my questions; he roots for the Dolphins, so he has to be patient.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 30-16-1
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 23-23-1
Against the Spread 15-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+5.5, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 32-31
Saints (+5, ML +200) at Seahawks, 33-27
Lions (+4, ML +180) at Eagles, 27-24
Texans (+3, ML +145) at Chargers, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-22.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-6
Vikings (-9) vs. Raiders, 34-14
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos, 27-16
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Ravens, 33-28
Rams (-4.5) at Browns, 20-13

Stacking Dimes

-- The New York Giants (+5.5, ML +210) rallied for the 32-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the first-career start for rookie QB Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He replaced two-time Super Bowl winner QB Eli Manning, and his selection was viewed as a bit of a reach by some. However, if Sunday's game is any indication, the G-Men appear to have made the right decision in selecting him, as well as making the change in Week 3. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four runs, 28 yards and two more touchdowns, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Legend of Danny Dimes grows after a tremendous preseason. He went into the huddle at one point of the second quarter and said, "Let's f***ing score!", which was surprising to his teammates, as he reportedly had never been overheard swearing in the past. Elias Sports Bureau reports that since the 1970 merger only Jones and former Detroit Lions QB Eric Hipple are the only players to pass for two TDs and run for two TDs in his first-career start.

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns were much better in their second home game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams than they were in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but the results were the same - a loss and a non-cover. The entire secondary for the Browns was inactive, but they nearly tied the game up in the closing seconds. The Browns, who were blown out 43-13 in Week 1 by the Titans, moved inside the 5-yard line of the Rams in the final ticks. However, QB Baker Mayfield scrambled to the right and was picked off on the final play, falling 20-13 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. The public helped the books take a huge bath as a result of the favorite Rams covering the 4.5 points.

Total Recall

-- The over went 9-6 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, quite a bit different than Week 2 when the under connected in 13 of 16 outings.

The highest total on the board was the Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs (52) ended up covering fairly handily with 61 total points. That was the only total in the 50's. The second-highest total was the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers (49) game, which went just under with 47 points. QB Philip Rivers was picked off in the red zone to end the threat of overtime, and the threat of an over ticket. The two games with totals at 48, the aforementioned Giants-Bucs game, and Atlanta Falcons-Indianapolis Colts games each saw 'over' results.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars (38) game, which easily hits the under with a total of 27 points. It started out looking like it might be high-scoring, as QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes. However, a scoreless second quarter, and a total of three points in the third put the nail in the coffin for those holding 'over' tickets.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 through the first two primetime games of Week 3, with the low Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears-Washington Redskins (41) still pending. The 'over' is 1-8 (11.1%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of the weekend occurred in that Giants-Bucs battle, as New York RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the second quarter. He was on crutches and in a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. The injury didn't keep him from hobbling over and celebrating with his teammates following the win.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) entered Sunday's game questionable against the Falcons due to a quad injury, and he aggravated the ailment.

-- Patriots WR Julian Edelman (chest) left with a chest injury suffered against the Jets. He had X-rays which came back negative.

-- Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) exited early due to an ankle injury for the team which was already missing starter RB Damien Williams (knee).

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns travel to meet the Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The Browns have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five road games, although they're 6-16-1 ATS in the past 23 inside the division. They did a good job shutting down the running game of the Rams in Week 2, but facing QB Lamar Jackson is a whole other animal. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-4 ATS in the past four inside the division. While Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, the road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five, and 6-2 in the previous eight battles in Charm City.

-- The Patriots have dominated the Bills in the past, but it's a new day in Buffalo. We'll see if it's the same old results. Buffalo has fired out to a 3-0 SU record, and they're 2-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their first three. New England is 20-8 ATS in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. They've really made Western New York their home, going 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 trips to Buffalo. The road team is also 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 in this series.

-- In another divisional matchup, Jones and the Giants will look to carry over their momentum from Tampa back to MetLife Stadium against the 'Skins. Washington has covered just once in the past six games inside the NFC East, although that one cover happened in Week 1 in Philadelphia. They're 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on the road, too. The G-Men have posted a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the past eight against the NFC, including their outright win against the Bucs. If you're a fan of totals, the 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 battles in New Jersey, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Seahawks and Cardinals hook up in the desert on Sunday afternoon. QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are searching for their first win, going 0-2-1 SU. However, they are 2-1 ATS in the first three, including a pair of 'over' results at home. This series has been all about the road team, as the visitors are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine in this series. Seattle has an impressive 4-1-1 ATS mark in the past six trips to the desert, too. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Glendale, too.

-- The Vikings and Bears get together in the Windy City, and Chicago looks to maintain its dominance against the number. The Bears are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 at home against the Vikings, and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under has hit in four of the past five at Soldier Field with 11 unders in the past 15 meetings overall.

-- On Monday Night Football the winless Bengals and winless Steelers square off at Heinz Field. The Bengals have posted a 2-0 ATS mark in their two games so far on the road, and they have covered their past six away games dating back to last season. Cincinnati is also 7-2 ATS in the past nine divisional matchups. Pittsburgh has dominated, going 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 home games against the Bengals, but it's a new day with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) already done and QB Mason Rudolph under center.

 

[Cnotes53]

101PHILADELPHIA -102 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 20-5 ATS (14.5 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992.

251CAROLINA -252 HOUSTON
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.

253CLEVELAND -254 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the last 3 seasons.

255WASHINGTON -256 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

257LA CHARGERS -258 MIAMI
LA CHARGERS are 39-19 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.

259OAKLAND -260 INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. in the last 3 seasons.

261KANSAS CITY -262 DETROIT
KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

263NEW ENGLAND -264 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

265TENNESSEE -266 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

267TAMPA BAY -268 LA RAMS
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.

269SEATTLE -270 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

271MINNESOTA -272 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

273JACKSONVILLE -274 DENVER
DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

275DALLAS -276 NEW ORLEANS
DALLAS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

277CINCINNATI -278 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 62-30 ATS (29 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

Philadelphia @ Green Bay

Game 101-102
September 26, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
131.681
Green Bay
133.807
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 5
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+5); Over


Sunday, September 29

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 253-254
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
128.711
Baltimore
138.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7
46
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-7); Over

Carolina @ Houston

Game 251-252
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.830
Houston
134.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Over

LA Chargers @ Miami

Game 257-258
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
132.363
Miami
111.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 20 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 16
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-16); Over

New England @ Buffalo

Game 263-264
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
146.381
Buffalo
130.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
42
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Over

Tennessee @ Atlanta

Game 265-266
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.605
Atlanta
132.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); Over

Oakland @ Indianapolis

Game 259-260
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
123.563
Indianapolis
137.469
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 14
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-6 1/2); Over

Washington @ NY Giants

Game 255-256
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.430
NY Giants
126.444
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Under

Kansas City @ Detroit

Game 261-262
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
141.888
Detroit
132.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6); Over

Tampa Bay @ LA Rams

Game 267-268
September 29, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
129.864
LA Rams
136.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 7
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 10
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+10); Over

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 269-270
September 29, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.143
Arizona
122.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 8 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 271-272
September 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.226
Chicago
137.148
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ Denver

Game 273-274
September 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
132.530
Denver
124.881
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 7 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
38
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3); Over

Dallas @ New Orleans

Game 275-276
September 29, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.992
New Orleans
134.927
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Under


Monday, September 30

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Game 277-278
September 30, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
125.041
Pittsburgh
132.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-4); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 9/26/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 195-139 ATS (+42.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (0 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) at MIAMI (0 - 3) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 58-85 ATS (-35.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 0 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 0) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-201 ATS (+42.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-201 ATS (+42.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-147 ATS (+42.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-147 ATS (+33.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-71 ATS (+25.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-85 ATS (+32.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-87 ATS (+32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) vs. LA RAMS (3 - 0) - 9/29/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 196-240 ATS (-68.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-240 ATS (-68.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-189 ATS (-66.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-190 ATS (-59.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-103 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ARIZONA (0 - 2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) at DENVER (0 - 3) - 9/29/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, September 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 9/30/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 26

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Green Bay's last 13 games
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay


Sunday, September 29

Houston Texans
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Carolina is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tennessee is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Baltimore is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Buffalo's last 25 games at home
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games on the road
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games
Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 22 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Miami's last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 15 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Chargers is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Chargers's last 15 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Giants is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 21 games at home
NY Giants is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Giants is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Giants's last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games at home
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 15 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 6-9-3 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 12 games
Denver is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Jacksonville is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Denver
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Chicago is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
New Orleans is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 14 games on the road
Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans


Monday, September 30

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season?s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It?s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England ? despite the Antonio Brown drama ? sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games ? both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

?Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,? Murray said. ?We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills? offense in this game. Their defense is legit.?

There weren?t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won?t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees? absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

?We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),? Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. ?The books will need the Saints big in this game.?

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn?t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn?t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

?The Eagles are very banged up right now,? Murray said. ?The Packers are 3-0 but weren?t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.?

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

?It?s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,? Murray said. ?Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.?

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
September 23, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of September 23rd

If you were able to catch last week's piece you'll know that the angle of backing those winless ATS teams out on the road in Week 3 turned out to be profitable once again.

Seven different teams fit that role for Week 3, and with Chicago's outcome still pending tonight, the other six (Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, NYG, NYJ) ended up going 5-1 ATS. Only the hapless Dolphins failed to cover the number on Sunday, while three of those teams (Carolina, New Orleans, NYG) managed to pull off the outright victory as well.

Going against the Rams was a result that most oddsmakers across the country wanted to see cash, but LA was having none of it. It's hard to say if LA went out and got that game on SNF vs the Browns, or if Cleveland just remains too undisciplined for their own good. The Browns over-thought some playcalling decisions as well, and yet, they still had a 1st and goal to tie the game with under a minute left. Fading the money earners just didn't work out on Sunday night.

This week we are staying in the NFL, and while something like discussing the fact that division games are on a 4-10 O/U run so far in 2019 ? keep that in mind for the Cleveland/Baltimore, New England/Buffalo, Washington/NYG, Seattle/Arizona, Minnesota/Chicago, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games next week ? there are actually two more specific spots involving two of the seven 3-0 SU teams in this league that need to come to light. With Detroit being 2-0-1 SU there are actually eight remaining unbeaten squads, but it's two that entered 2019 as legit Super Bowl contenders that present solid betting angles. So let's get right to them.

Who's Hot

Games featuring an AFC team vs. NFC team with the home side as underdogs are a perfect 5-0 to the 'Under' in 2019

Non-conference games tend to lack the hatred something like rivalry or even conference tilts bring has there can be lingering memories from recent playoffs etc that add extra elements to those games. But unless you are one of the few teams that have met New England in the Super Bowl in recent years, AFC/NFC games tend to lack the animosity that can be associated with 'under' plays. There isn't the same type of familiarity in terms of understanding what the opposition prefers to run, and coaching staffs prefer to focus on more immediate concerns like divisional rivals because the easiest path to a playoff berth is by winning one's division.

So while you will hear thoughts about non-conference games being ones that can fly 'over' the number more often given that lack of hatred, that's not particularly been the case this year (6-8 O/U overall this year) in general. But more specifically, when the home team is catching points in these non-conference tilts, you only want to look low. Week 4 brings us only one specific spot where this run will be tested, as it does involve Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered, undefeated, Kansas City Chiefs.

KC is laying about a TD in Detroit on Sunday, and the total has already seen the vig get a few more cents added to the 'over' side of things. Both teams do own a 2-1 O/U record on the year as well, and with KC averaging 33.7 points per game and Detroit averaging 22.3 points per game offensively, just having both sides hit those averages would see an 'over' ticket cash.

However, defensively, neither side gives up more then 21.3 points per game on average, and given the specific home/road splits here, KC's defense comes in at 18 ppg allowed on the road, with Detroit clocking in at 10 ppg at home. Extremely small sample size for those numbers to be sure, but if you zoom out and look at the scenario on the whole ? home underdog against a non-conference team ? you can see why 'unders' in these games do tend to make a lot of sense.

First off, as a home underdog, you know you are up against it in terms of talent, skill, etc and there are certain generic strategies in that role that can/should be employed. Shortening the game by controlling time of possession and moving the sticks with the running game is one of those, and it doesn't matter who the Chiefs opponent is or where they are playing, limiting KC's time with the ball is something all 29 other teams are looking to do against KC. Detroit may not have the best running game in the league, but Stafford's dink-and-dunk approach throwing the ball plays into that as well.

Furthermore, offensively execution tends to come a bit tougher in hostile territory for these road favorites. Whether it be crowd noise, general discomfort, or the home dog defense 'rising up' to play over their heads against a better squad, KC's offense might not work as smoothly as some may think. KC might have scored 61 points in their last two games combined, but you take out the 2nd quarter, and the Chiefs just have 10 total points in all of those six other frames. They've been blanked in four of those quarters so it's not like they can't be held down as it is.

So chances are we see this total likely go higher before it goes down, but with that hook sitting there on a key number like 53 and plus-money on the 'under' to boot, it may not hurt to get at least a partial unit down on this 'under' in Week 4 and go from there.

Who's Not

Backing home favorites in the first five weeks of the season, prior to playing a road game on Thursday Night Football
(2-9 ATS and SU last three years)

Thursday Night football games continue to generally be slopfests in terms of quality of play as the short week is just tough to overcome for all involved. Maybe one day that will change and we can get rid of them all together (highly doubtful) and have weekly MNF double-headers or something instead, but until then, I'll gladly try to use an angle like this to cash.

Simply put, when teams are laying chalk at home the Sunday prior, and then have a quick turnaround WITH travel for TNF, it's those Sunday games that tend to get glossed over. Not only are home favorites in that role 2-9 against the number, but ALL NINE ATS losses have been outright losers as well. That's really quite shocking when you step back and think about it.

It's not like they are loaded with losses by two or three-point home favorites either. Last year we saw Minnesota lose to Buffalo (27-6) laying 16.5 points prior to a road TNF game, and even the great New England Patriots fell victim to this trend back in 2017 when they lost at home to Carolina (33-30) as nine-point home chalk.

And while it may feel like after last week's piece, I am picking on LA Rams fans/backers, I can assure you that I'm not. But this week, it's the undefeated Los Angeles Rams who find themselves in this dreaded role, currently laying -10.5 at home to a visiting Tampa team prior to the Rams travelling to Seattle for a divisional game on TNF in Week 5.

Considering Tampa's likely to be quite salty this week after blowing that big lead at home to the New York Giants with a rookie QB starting, it's not hard to figure the Bucs will be out to be at their best this Sunday. Offensively, they are more then capable of keeping up with LA should the game be a back-and-forth affair, and Tampa themselves know how hard it is being in the role that LA finds themselves in, as the Bucs got burned by being in that spot in Week 1 as small home chalk to the 49ers.

That Bucks loss in Week 1 started the 0-3 ATS and SU run this trend has been on just this year alone with Philly losing at home yesterday as the latest victim. So my apologies go out to Rams supporters this week for the second week in a row. You proved me wrong last week, and hopefully as the year goes on the Rams will find themselves in a favorable 'play on' role for one of these pieces, but it's taking the points or nothing with Tampa Bay for me this weekend.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 26

PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Birds 3-7 vs. line last 11 reg season games. Pack ?under? 9-3-1 last 13 since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and Packers, based on ?totals? and team trends


Sunday, Sept. 29

CAROLINA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers on 3-8 spread skid since late 2018, though off of win at Arizona. Also ?under? 5-3 last eight since late 2018. Rivera was 12-4 as dog entering last season but just 5-5 in role since. Texans 9-3-1 last 13 vs. spread reg season since mid 2018. Also ?under? 8-3 last 11 at NRG Stadium.
Tech Edge: Panthers and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 12-8 last 20 on board, also 10-4 last 14 as dog and covered both last year vs. Ravens. Balt 5-3-1 vs. line reg season since late 2018, though only 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Browns and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have covered 5 of last 7 on road, while G-Men 1-7-1 vs. spread last nine at MetLife. NY ?over? 7-3 last ten since mid 2018, Skins "over" first three in 2019.
Tech Edge: Redskins and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Outside of L.A. City limits, Chargers 11-3-2 vs. line reg season since moving from San Diego in 2017 (0-1 TY however). Bolts also ?under? 10-5 last 15 since early 2018. Dolphins no covers last six since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


OAKLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 2-13-1 last 16 as road dog, also ?under? 5-1-1 last seven since late 2018. Colts 7-4-1 vs. points reg season since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


KANSAS CITY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 12-1 vs. spread in first five weeks of campaigns since 2017, also 7-0 vs. line away in first five weeks of seasons since 2017. Chiefs 9-2 vs. line last 11 on road and ?over? 7-2 last 9 reg season. Lions however are ?under? 8-2 last ten since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to "over," , based on team trends.


NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pats have owned this series for 15 years, they?re 28-3 SU the last 31 games, with Brady not involved in two of the Bills? wins. Pats have also covered 4 of last 5 and Belichick on 13-6 spread run since early 2018. Belichick ?under? 10-2 last 12 in reg season play. Bills have covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018. ?Under? 5-2 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Patriots and ?under,? based on series and Belichick trends.


TENNESSEE at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs only 6-13 vs. line since start of 2018, a bit better 4-5 at home. Falcs ?under? 6-4 last ten since late 2018. Titans 3-7 last ten on board since mid 2018, ?under? 6-3 last nine away from Nissan.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.


TAMPA BAY at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs 4-6-4 as road dog since 2017. TB also ?under? 7-2 last 0 since late 2018. Rams have now covered last five in reg season play and 7 of last 8 overall, also ?over? 7-3-1 last 11 at home reg season.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


SEATTLE at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards 4-0-1 vs. line last five meetings. Hawks also ?over? last four away. Carroll 4-7-1 last 11 as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Cards and ?over,? based on series and ?totals? trends.


MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Vikes just 1-4 vs. spread last five away, 2-5 as dog since last season. Zimmer also ?under? 15-6-1 last 21 since late 2017, Though "over" on Monday at Redskins, Bears "under" 9-1 last ten since late 2018.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Bears, based on ?totals? and team trends.


JACKSONVILLE at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-6-1 as home chalk since 2017, and ?under? 11-0-1 since mid 2018. Jags ?under? 5-1 last six since late 2018, 13-7 ?under? since late 2017.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and Jags, based on ?totals? and team trends.


DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Dak 9-1-1 vs. spread last ten in reg season, 5-2 last seven vs. spread away. Saints no covers last five at Superdome and ?under? 6-4 reg season since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.



Monday, Sept. 30

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Cincy now on 6-1 spread run since late 2018. Road team has covered 5 straight and 7 of last 8 in series. Bengals ?under? 5-1-2 last eight since late 2018 and ?unders? 4-1 last five in series.
Tech Edge: Bengals and ?under,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 4 odds: If you're counting on the Cowboys to cover, do it now
Jason Logan

You have America's Team taking an undefeated record to New Orleans to face a backup QB on Sunday Night Football. Books are bracing for Cowboys money.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL board each week.

Week 4 marks the quarter turn of the schedule, which means teams suffering from slow starts to 2019 are beginning to panic and those teams exceeding expectations are attempting to ride that early-season momentum. How the betting markets react to those results will shape the line movement heading into kickoff, so let?s try to stay ahead of the curve.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I?ll be the first to tell you, Cowboys fans can be a bit much. And I am one. Dallas is 3-0 heading to the Big Easy on Sunday night, with a belly full of fudgy facts and figures after eating up the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.

America?s Team opened around a field-goal favorite for this primetime game, and early play from the wiseguys has slimmed that spread as low as -2.5 at some select books. If you can get Dallas under a field goal, do it now because Dallas fans will be doubling down come Sunday evening.

Books have already seen a large amount of public play on the Cowboys and predict the most popular team in football to draw lopsided money versus a Saints team playing without star QB Drew Brees. Even though backup Teddy Bridgewater was solid in a win at Seattle, this spread will likely creep to Dallas -3.5 by the time the late-afternoon games wrap.

If you?re among the masses with money to get down on Dallas, get it in now rather than later.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6)

If you fear that you missed the boat on the early line movement for this non-conference clash, you?ll likely get a second shot later in the week. Kansas City opened as a 6-point road favorite in the Motor City and early play on the Chiefs pumped this to a full touchdown before sharp buyback on the Lions returned the spread to the opener.

I can see why getting the home side at a full seven points is appealing to the pros. Kansas City is playing its third road game in four weeks and is ripe for a letdown after a physical win over the Ravens at home in Week 3. Detroit is undefeated at 2-0-1 SU and would be a perfect 3-0 if not for a huge fourth-quarter collapse against Arizona in Week 1.

The public, however, will be blinded by the Chiefs? undefeated mark and as we get closer to Sunday, money will jump on K.C. ? especially seeing it under a touchdown. If you like the Lions, wait it out. You?ll likely see the +6.5 and +7 again before the whistle blows.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 46 CAROLINA AT HOUSTON

This total is already starting to tick up at some sportsbooks, with the early money putting its faith in Carolina backup Kyle Allen. The second-year QB was fantastic in place of the injured Cam Newton in Week 3, so much so that it appears the franchise is in no rush to return its star player. And after the way Newton performed in the first two weeks, can you blame the Panthers?

Carolina?s offense is set up for Allen to succeed. He has a savvy TE in Greg Olsen to act as safety blanket, a dynamic RB in Christian McCaffery to keep opposing pass rushers guessing and serve as a vital checkdown, and two speedsters in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel to stretch the field and open up space underneath. Allen may have to use those deep-strike targets more to keep pace in Week 4.

The Texans can put up points in a hurry. Take out that ho-hum effort versus Jacksonville in Week 2, and Houston is putting up almost 400 yards per game. This is one of the best receiving corps in the league (something I?ve said every week) and Deshaun Watson is really finding him form, with 11.6 yards per completion, only one interception, and sitting fifth in Total QBR.

Given the early opinion on this total and with this game being played on the fast turf track inside NRG Stadium (Interesting/Meaningless trend: Carolina 22-5 Over/Under in last 27 games on turf), the Over would be best bet at 46 now ? if you?re into that sort of thing.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43.5 CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

In rare air for a primetime matchup, those leaning towards the Over for Monday Night Football?s AFC North war between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may want to wait it out. Most weeks, a night game means blind backing for the Over from the public, but this rivalry isn?t selling the points like it should.

The Steelers are without QB Ben Roethlisberger and looking to backup Mason Rudolph to keep them competitive. The reviews are still out on the former Oklahoma State gunslinger, but he did show flashes of big-play potential on both TD strikes last Sunday and Pittsburgh put up 20 points despite having the football for less than 24 minutes in Week 3.

The Steelers defense is the real issue. Pittsburgh has allowed 28.3 points per game through the first three weeks and has been torched for almost 303 passing yards an outing (second most in the NFL). The Steelers have allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards in those contests and take on the Bengals' up-tempo attack that thrives on the big plays (14 passing plays of 20-plus).

Cincinnati got off to a slow start at Buffalo in Week 3 but snapped out of it just in time to score 17 second-half points and cover the +6 in the loss. There?s a lot of potential for this Bengals offense ? something that can?t be said for the defense. Between missed tackles and giving up 6.4 yards per play, Cincy sits 27th in points allowed at 27.7 per game. With two piss-poor defenses, the prospect for points, and lots of them, is great.

This one goes against the traditional MNF grain (as well as the Under trend in this divisional rivalry: 2-5 O/U last seven meetings), but wait to see if this continues to drop (fell from as high as 44 to as low as 43 at some spots) and be the Over later in the Week 4 finale.