CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

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SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 0) at ARIZONA (3 - 4 - 1) - 10/31/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 3

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HOUSTON (5 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 7) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (4 - 3) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-29 ATS (+23.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 6) at MIAMI (0 - 6) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 76-103 ATS (-37.3 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
MIAMI is 60-86 ATS (-34.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 73-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 3 - 1) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 53-85 ATS (-40.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at SEATTLE (6 - 2) - 11/3/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (2 - 5) at DENVER (2 - 6) - 11/3/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (7 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 5) - 11/3/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 197-141 ATS (+41.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 0) at BALTIMORE (5 - 2) - 11/3/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-95 ATS (+23.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-95 ATS (+23.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 206-148 ATS (+43.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 198-148 ATS (+35.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 120-89 ATS (+22.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-88 ATS (+31.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 4

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DALLAS (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (2 - 6) - 11/4/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 39-64 ATS (-31.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 31

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Arizona is 3-8-1 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona


Sunday, November 3

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Jacksonville is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Kansas City's last 16 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 25 games at home
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Carolina

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Jets is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
NY Jets is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Miami

Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 12 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Oakland

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games
Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 7-11-3 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Chargers is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
LA Chargers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers

Denver Broncos
Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Denver is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 17 games
Denver is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 11 games at home
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore


Monday, November 4

New York Giants
NY Giants is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
NY Giants is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 14 of NY Giants's last 21 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 16 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Dallas's last 21 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

49ers (7-0) @ Cardinals (3-4-1)? Unbeaten 49ers have five wins by 13+ points; they?ve held last five opponents to 100 or fewer passing yards, outscoring them 56-10 in 2nd half. SF is 4-0 on road, winning by 14-24-13-9 points; four of their last five games stayed under total. In last five games, 49ers won field position by average of 9.8 yds/game- they?re 32 of last 70 on third down. Arizona won three of last four games; they?re 1-2-1 SU at home. Redbirds? last three losses were by 18-17-22 points; they?re 16-49 on 3rd down in their losses, 29-63 in other games. Since 2009, Arizona is 21-14-1 ATS as a home dog. Cardinals won last eight series games, taking last five played here, with last three by 3-3-3 points- they lost last two visits by identical 18-15 scores.

Texans (5-3) vs Jaguars (4-4) (@ London)? Season series has been swept last eight years; Houston (-7) won first meeting 13-12 in Week 2; neither team gained 300 TY, Texans? only TD drive was 11 yards. Losing side scored 12 of fewer points in last five series games. Houston won three of last four games, despite allowing 27.5 ppg; they trailed five of last six games at halftime. Jaguars allowed 17 or less points in last three games; in their wins, they?re +8 in turnovers, in losses, -7. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Texans are 13-4 ATS in pre-bye games, winning/covering last four; Jaguars won three of last four pre-bye tilts. Dogs covered six of last eight series games; Texans are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games as a series fave. JJ Watt is out for the year.

Redskins (1-7) @ Bills (5-2)? Washington scored total of 36 points in last five games, with no TD?s on 14 drives in last two games; they?re 13-9 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Redskins? last five games stayed under the total. Buffalo allowed 21-31 points in splitting last two games, after giving up 14 ppg in first five games; they?re 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. Since ?12, Bills are 33-25-1 ATS coming off a loss; five of their seven games stayed under total. Buffalo won six of last seven series games, losing last meeting 35-25; Redskins lost last three visits here, but also haven?t been here since ?03. AFC East favorites are 5-3 ATS this year outside the division, 3-3 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 5-2 ATS.

Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (4-3)? Tennessee scored 23+ points in their wins, 17 or less in losses (7 or less in 3 of 4 losses); they?re 2-0 in Tannehill starts, converting 11-24 third down plays- five of their last seven games stayed under total. Titans are 11-21 ATS in last 32 games as a road dog, 1-2 TY. Carolina won four of its last five games but lost two of three at home; they?re 9-11 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY. Panthers converted only 9 of last 40 third down plays; their last three games went over total. Home side lost four of last five series games; Titans won 37-17/30-3 in last two visits to Charlotte. AFC South road underdogs are 8-2 ATS outside their division; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 2-5 ATS, 2-4 at home.

Bears (3-4) @ Eagles (4-4)? Eagles won last four series games, last of which was 16-15 upset (+6.5) win in LY?s playoffs, when they tipped a last-second Chicago FG to seal the win. Bears lost last two visits here, 54-11/31-3. Chicago lost its last three games overall, allowing 25.7 ppg; they won both their true road games- this is their first true road game since Week 3. Chicago is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog; they allowed 15 or fewer pints in their three wins, are 0-4 when allowing more than 15 points. Philly ran ball for 218 yards in LW?s 31-13 win, after running for 102.3 ypg the three games before that; Iggles are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY. Philly scored 31+ points in its wins, 18.5 ppg in their losses.

Vikings (6-2) @ Chiefs (5-3)? Chiefs lost last three home games but still lead AFC West; backup QB Moore played well in 31-24 home loss to Packers LW, but he ain?t Mahomes (check status), and has started only six games since 2011. Chiefs allowed 28+ points in four of last six games; they?re 17-19 ATS in last 36 home games. Vikings won last four games, have extra prep time after LW?s Thursday win; they were held to 16-6 points in their losses, are 6-0 scoring more than 16. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 26-18 ATS on the road. Home side won last five series games; Vikings lost last four trips to Arrowhead, all by 5 or fewer points. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road; AFC West teams are 10-12, 3-7 at home.

Jets (1-6) @ Dolphins (0-7)? How are the Jets a road favorite over anyone? Adam Gase coaches against his old team for first time here; he was 23-26 SU in Miami. Gang Green already has five loses by 14+ points; they?re been outscored 93-35 in three road games, are 3-5-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Jets converted only 9 of last 70 third down plays. Short week for 0-7 Miami team that covered its last three games, but has been outscored 130-20 in second half of games this season. Dolphins are -14 in turnovers, with only one takeaway in last four games; five of their last six games stayed under total. Dolphins won last three series games, by 3-8-7 points; Jets lost their last two visits here. Miami is 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a series underdog

Colts (5-2) @ Steelers (3-4)? Indy won three in row, five of last six games; they?re 3-0 ATS on road this year, with only road loss in OT vs Chargers in Week 1. Colts allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, are 5-0 allowing fewer than 30. Steelers won three of last four games after an 0-3 start, covering four of last five; they?re 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY. Wasn?t impressed by Monday?s win over a hideous Miami team, but Steelers have had a positive turnover ratio in each of their last six games (+9 for year). Pitt won last five series games, with last loss in ?08; Colts lost 14 of last 15 visits here, with that ?08 game the only win. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 9-2 ATS; AFC North home teams are 0-11 ATS.

Lions (3-3-1) @ Raiders (3-4)? Oakland lost its last two games, allowing 42-27 points; this is their first home game since Week 2. Raiders are 5-9-2 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Four of their last five games went over. Detroit lost three of its last four games; six of their seven games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Under Patricia, Lions are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs, 5-4 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Four of their last five games went over the total. Detroit allowed 91 points in last three games; they?ve held only one team (LAC) under 23. Detroit won last four series games, including last two visits here; their last loss to Oakland was in ?96. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Seahawks (6-2)? These teams came into the NFL together in ?76. Tampa Bay is playing its 5th straight game away from home; they?ve turned ball over 11 times on 29 drives the last two games (-9)- maybe Arians should call the plays? Bucs scored 32.5 ppg in four games with no or one turnover; they lost other three games by 14-16-4 points. Tampa is 2-5-4 ATS in last 11 games on artificial turf. Seattle won four of last five games but split their four home games, with both wins by a single point; they?re 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this year, 4-11-1 since ?17. Home side won five of last six series games; Bucs lost four of last six visits to Seattle. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-6 ATS; NFC West home faves are 2-6.

Browns (2-5) @ Broncos (2-6)? Denver didn?t allow an offensive TD in either of its wins; they?re 0-6 when giving up more than 13 points. Flacco (neck) is out; Brandon Allen gets his first NFL action- he started for 2.5 years at Arkansas in SEC. Backup QB Rypien also has no NFL snaps. Broncos are 1-3 at home, with two losses with 2 points- they?re 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog. Six of their eight games went under. Cleveland lost its last three games, giving up 30 ppg; they split their four road games. Since 2013, Browns are 1-3 as road favorites, 1-0 TY, when they beat Jets, who also had a backup QB playing. Denver won seven of last eight series games, losing 17-16 to the Browns LY- they won four of last five meetings played here.

Packers (7-1) @ Chargers (3-5)? Packers won last four games, scoring 32.5 ppg; they converted 14 of last 23 3rd down plays. GB won/covered all three road games, is 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite- five of their last six games went over. Chargers lost three of last four games; only one of their eight games was decided by more than 7 points. LA is 1-3 at home, with only win in OT; their home losses are by 7-7-7 points. Bolts are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog. Green Bay won 10 of last 11 series games; Packers won their last six visits to San Diego- hard to imagine stadium in Carson won?t be full of mostly Packer fans. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road; AFC West teams are 10-12, 3-7 at home.

Patriots (8-0) @ Ravens (5-2)? New England defense has allowed only four TD?s on 96 drives, while scoring four TD?s of their own; they?re 17-10 ATS in last 27 games as a road favorite, 3-1 TY. Only one of its eight wins was by less than 14 points; their turnover rate is +17. Only close game (@ Buffalo) was only time they lost field position battle. Ravens are 13-4 ATS in last 17 post-bye games; they won last three games, scoring 26.3 ppg; they?ve scored 23+ points in every game this year. Baltimore is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog. Six of eight NE games stayed under total. NE won 10 of last 13 series games (2-2 in playoffs); Patriots won three of last four visits to Baltimore. Average total in last three series games is 54.

Cowboys (4-3) @ Giants (2-6)? Dallas (-7) beat Giants 35-17 in season opener, with five TD drives of 75+ yards; they averaged 12.7 yards/pass attempt, scoring three TD?s of 20+ yards. Cowboys won last five series games, winning 30-10/36-35 in last two series games here- they lost here 24-22 to Jets three weeks ago. Dallas lost three of last four games overall; they?ve scored 31+ points in all four of their wins, 10-24-22 in their losses. Last two years, Cowboys are 1-3 ATS as a road favorite; they?re 5-3 ATS last eight times they were favored over the Giants. Big Blue lost its last four games, losing last two weeks by 6-5 points; under Shurmur, Giants are 1-7 ATS when getting points at home. Last four games, NYG opponents are 26-53 on third down.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9


Thursday, October 31

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 301-302
October 31, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
143.955
Arizona
124.276
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 19 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 9 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-9 1/2); Over


Sunday, November 3

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 451-452
November 3, 2019 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.691
Jacksonville
130.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-1 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Philadelphia

Game 457-458
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.777
Philadelphia
135.796
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Kansas City

Game 459-460
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
139.626
Kansas City
134.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); N/A

Tennessee @ Carolina

Game 455-456
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
131.064
Carolina
132.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); Over

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh

Game 463-464
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
136.731
Pittsburgh
132.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+1); Under

NY Jets @ Miami

Game 461-462
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.715
Miami
117.038
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 1 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5 1/2); Under

Washington @ Buffalo

Game 453-454
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
122.350
Buffalo
128.327
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 10
37
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+10); Over

Tampa Bay @ Seattle

Game 467-468
November 3, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
130.649
Seattle
129.201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+6 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Oakland

Game 465-466
November 3, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.880
Oakland
129.994
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+2); Under

Cleveland @ Denver

Game 469-470
November 3, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.042
Denver
131.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1); Under

Green Bay @ LA Chargers

Game 471-472
November 3, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
139.371
LA Chargers
129.331
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under

New England @ Baltimore

Game 473-474
November 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
146.367
Baltimore
136.030
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3 1/2); Under


Monday, November 4

Dallas @ NY Giants

Game 475-476
November 4, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.851
NY Giants
124.162
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
48
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 9:

Road Teams: 73-46-2 ATS
Home Teams: 46-73-2 ATS

Favorites: 50-69-2 ATS
Underdogs: 69-50-2 ATS

Home Faves: 29-52-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 17-21 ATS

Road Faves: 21-17 ATS
Road Dogs: 52-29-2 ATS

O/U: 55-66


***************************


Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 9 odds: Chargers' shake-up puts urgency on Over
Jason Logan

The Chargers are averaging less than 20 points per game and hope firing their offensive coordinator can jump start the scoring attack around QB Philip Rivers.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 9 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SAN FRANCICO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+9.5, 43)

The spread for this NFC West Thursday night game opened Arizona as an 8-point home underdog after the Cardinals were thumped 31-6 by New Orleans in Drew Brees? return to action and the Niners laid the lumber to Carolina in a 51-13 blasting.

Books pinned that dead number on the board, looking to the early money to dictate the movement and mold the line, and what they saw wasn?t that surprising. Instant action on San Francisco has this spread teetering on -10 at most books, and while the 1.5-point move from Niners -8 to -9.5 may look big, it?s not as notable as a jump to -10 ? which is starting to pop up in select markets.

If you?re onboard with the undefeated 49ers Thursday night, buy it now at -9.5. The public loves to bet the favorites in primetime games and this spread may not only go to -10 it could even end up with a half-point hook on that key number.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5, 52)

Seattle opened -6.5 at most markets and the sharp opinion on this game has been the Buccaneers, trimming the vig on the Seahawks at most books and even axing half a point of the line entirely at select spots.

Tampa Bay is coming off a frustrating loss at Tennessee in Week 8, in which a scoop-and-score in the fourth quarter was incorrectly whistled dead, eventually leading to a 27-23 defeat. Seattle found itself in a closer-than-expected game at Atlanta and has three wins in the past four games - all decided by a touchdown or less.

If you?re leaning to the home side, hold up and see if you can grab Seattle -6. That number should start popping up mid-week as the industry evens out. However, don?t wait too long. The public is expected to side with the Seahawks, and that could make this line closer to -7 come kickoff. This is a perfect situation to use that Covers Live App Line Alert. DING!


TOTAL TO BET NOW: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS OVER 46.5

This Over/Under is on the move, ticking upwards from 46 to 46.5. And for good reason.

The Packers have had a slew of injuries to their offense but that doesn?t seem to matter with Aaron Rodgers slinging the pigskin. Green Bay has fully adapted Matt LaFleur?s playbook and is piling on the points, averaging 32.5 over its current four-game winning streak. Receiver Davante Adams could return to the lineup after missing four games with turf toe, giving another weapon to Rodgers arsenal and influencing the Over/Under.

The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt Monday after their slow start to the schedule. Los Angeles, which enters Week 9 with a 3-5 record, is putting up just 19.6 points per game despite a bevvy of offensive weapons and a veteran QB in Philip Rivers. Head coach Anthony Lynn could take over play calling, but the Bolts are hoping the move sparks some scoring in Week 9.

If that shakeup has you sitting on the Over, you may want to bet this number now ? at 46 if available ? as I predict it will creep up to 47 and beyond before Sunday?s 4:25 p.m. ET start time.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: TENNESSEE TITANS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS UNDER 41

This Over/Under opened as low as 40 points and has been bet up as high as 41. According to our early consensus numbers, 65 percent of totals tickets are on the Over and could increase this Over/Under before Sunday?s start.

Tennessee?s offense has looked much improved since making the move from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at QB. In his two starts, Tannehill has passed for 505 yards and five touchdowns, sparking the Titans to victory with scores of 23 and 27 points.

Carolina, on the other hand, heads back home with its tail between its legs after getting spanked in the Bay Area on Sunday. The Panthers defense gushed yardage, including 232 yards rushing to the 49ers, and now takes on another potent RB in Derrick Henry.

This is one of the lower totals on the Week 9 board, so if you?re thinking about taking the Under, play it cool and see if you can get this total at 42 points or higher before clicking ?place bet?.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 31

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Cards 5-3 vs. line this season. Note Niners ?under? 5-2 TY and 11-6 last 17 since mid 2018. ?Unders? 5-2 last seven in series. Cards have won SU last 8 meetings!
Tech Edge: -?Under? and slight to Cards, based on ?totals? and series trends.


Sunday, Nov. 3

HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE at Wembley Stadium, London (NFL, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 7-2-1 vs. spread last 10 away from home. Series well ?under? last three including Sept. 15 meeting at NRG. Jags 3-1 vs. line away TY and have won and covered 3 of last 4 at Wembley.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends

WASHINGTON at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have covered last two after dropping 5 in a row vs. line. Skins also on 5-0 ?under? run, Bills ?under? 5-1 this season
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

TENNESSEE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans 8-5 as dog since LY (2-1 TY), but Panthers have won and covered four of five.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers, based on recent trends.

CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on board. Birds only 3-9 vs. line last 12 at Linc. Chicago on 11-3 ?under? run since late 2018 and ?under? last two series meetings. Playoff rematch from last January!
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Super Bowl IV rematch! Vikings have won SU last four and covered 3 of those after Skins result. Chiefs no covers first three as home chalk this season (we?ll see about Mahomes) and 1-7 last 8 as Arrowhead chalk. Zimmer ?under? 19-7-1 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Vikings, if dog, based on ?totals? and team trends.

N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After Steelers on Monday, Dolphins have covered last three TY, also 5-1 SU last six in this series. Jets 1-6 vs. spread as chalk since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 7-2 vs. line last nine away (3-0 TY), also ?over? 6-3 last 9 reg season. Steel has covered last four this season, ?over? 6-4 last ten at Heinz Field.
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

DETROIT at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Lions 5-1 last six as dog since late 2018. First Raiders home game since Sept. 15! Oakland has covered 4 of last 5 at Coliseum. Both teams ?over? 5-2 this season.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Lions, based on team and ?totals? trends.

TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Note the underdog team has covered in ten straight Seahawks games since late 2018! Bucs 6-2 ?over? since late 2018, Hawks ?over? 8-4 last 12 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Bucs and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

CLEVELAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Browns ?under? 7-4-1 since late 2018, Broncos ?under? three in a row and 15-2 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

GREEN BAY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pack 3-0 vs. line away TY. Bolts 0-4 vs. line at home in 2019, 2-9 vs. spread at Carson since 2018. Bolts also ?under? 8-2 last ten in reg season.
Tech Edge: Pack, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BALTIMORE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh has given Belichick some fits in past especially in playoffs, winning 2 and covering 3 at Gillette Stadium since 2009. Belichick 6-2 vs. line reg season since late 2018. Ravens no covers last six at home (0-5-1), though Harbaugh 7-0 last seven as dog. Belichick ?under? 13-3 last 16 reg season.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on Belichick ?totals? trends.


Monday, Nov. 4

DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Dak only 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, but Cowboys have won and covered last four in series. G-Men 2-9-1 vs. spread last 12 at MetLife.
Tech Edge: Cowboys, based on team and series trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Patriots 6-2 ATS
t1. Packers 6-2 ATS
t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
5. Niners 5-2 ATS
6. Colts 4-2-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t24. Jets 2-5 ATS
t24. Bucs 2-5 ATS
t24. Browns 2-5 ATS
t24. Bears 2-5 ATS
t24. Ravens 2-5 ATS


*****************************


by: Josh Inglis


BETTING ON THE BEST

Lamar Jackson went into Seattle in Week 7 and knocked off the league?s frontrunner for MVP on the back of 116 yards rushing on 14 carries. Jackson is doing things on the ground that have never been done in the NFL, averaging 101 yards on 14 carries and 0.5 TDs over his last four games. This stretch has seen the Baltimore Ravens quarterback go 4-0 Over/Under for his rushing-yard total.

Jackson will have his toughest test this year versus the New England Patriots in Baltimore on Sunday night. The Pats haven?t allowed more than 18 rushing yards to a QB since Week 5, but New England hasn?t faced a talent like Jackson, who leads the league in yards per rush at 6.9 with that number jumping to 7.7 at home.

Buffalo?s Josh Allen ran for 26 yards on five carries and a score in just over two quarters in Week 4 versus the Pats, an indicator that New England can be susceptible to QB running. Grab the Over on Jackson?s rushing total on any number below 73 yards.


PRIMETIME 6-POINT TEASER

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA (SF -4): Although we think it will be difficult for San Francisco to cover double digits on a short week, four points are much more realistic against an Arizona team that is crippled at running back. The Cardinals also don?t match up well versus the Niners defensively as Kliff Kingsbury?s defensive unit ranks 26th in rush DVOA defense, giving up 130 yards on the ground per game.

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE (NE +2.5): The Pats come into Sunday night?s game as 3.5-point road favorites ? their smallest spread of the year. Tom Brady & Co. have traveled well going 3-1 ATS on the road with the only ATS loss coming against the Bills. The Ravens have held opponents to just 18.7 points a game over their last three and won?t run up the score against the league?s top DVOA defense.

DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (DAL -1): Dallas is coming off its bye, helping the receiving corp heal up as they face a New York Giants team giving up over 30 points a game in its last three outings. The Cowboys have won the last five meetings by an average margin of 12.4 points. The Giants have to find a way to stop Dak Prescott, who is averaging 287 yards passing with seven rushing touchdowns in his last 16 games.


SELLING THE SACK STREAK

We are 3-0 in the month of October with our Over sack props and looking to push that streak to four in a game we are expecting to see quarterbacks face down.

The Carolina Panthers have gotten to opposing QBs at a league-best rate of 4.3 sacks per game while also struggling to keep Kyle Allen horizontal, surrendering seven sacks last week and eight in the previous three games.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won?t fare any better come Sunday as the veteran has been sacked nine times in 10 quarters since taking over the starting job.

This total will most likely be set at 6.5 as opposed to the usual 5.5 but is still a recommended play for any bettor looking to change things up. Hit the Over.


SWIMMING WITH DOLPHINS

The New York Jets are bad. That?s not surprising. But opening as 1-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins is a big slap to the face for Adam Gase?s squad, which has since been bet up to -3.

The New York offense has looked putrid since the Cowboys game, putting up just 15 points and 367 yards in their last two games. Over that same stretch, QB Sam Darnold?s unit has converted 4 of 20 third downs leading to a time of possession of only 24 minutes, which would rank as the worst mark in the league.

As bad as the offense is, the defense might be in worse shape heading into the Dolphins? game. Middle Linebacker C.J. Mosley is out and defensive captain Jamal Adams seems to have lost his motivation, taking issue with being shopped at the trade deadline and had some choice words for the Jets? GM

The spread scares us a bit considering the Dolphins? second-half woes, but this Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense has a great chance to top its team total of 18.5 points after getting the taste of competitive football over the last two week. Take the Dolphins team total Over 18.5.

 

[Cnotes53]

TNF - 49ers at Cardinals
October 30, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK
The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) remained the lone unbeaten team in the NFC by blowing out the Panthers, 51-13 to easily cash as 4 ?-point home favorites. Carolina not only entered last week?s affair at Levi?s Stadium off the bye, but the Panthers were riding a four-game winning streak before the Niners stormed out to a commanding 27-3 halftime advantage. Brand new 49ers? wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders scored the first touchdown of the game on a four-yard reception from Jimmy Garoppolo as the former Bronco and Steeler finished his San Francisco debut with four receptions for 25 yards.

The day belonged to running back Tevin Coleman, who rushed for 105 yards and scored four touchdowns for the Niners, who totaled 232 yards on the ground as a team. Coleman reached the end zone twice during the first half scoring surge, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown scamper right past the two-minute warning for the 24-point edge. The 49ers busted the 40-point mark for the second time this season, as San Francisco posted 41 points in a Week 2 rout of Cincinnati, while limiting its fourth straight opponent to 13 points or fewer.

The Cardinals (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) entered the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on a three-game winning streak last Sunday, as Arizona has made plenty of strides after finishing 2018 with the league?s worst record at 3-13. However, the Cardinals ran into a buzz saw as the Saints won their sixth consecutive contest, 31-9, while also getting future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees back in the lineup after missing five games with a thumb injury.

Brees threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, while his counterpart, rookie Kyler Murray failed to throw a touchdown pass for the fourth time in five games. Murray has gone four straight games without being intercepted, but the top pick out of Oklahoma only posted 220 yards, while Arizona?s offense produced 10 first downs and 40 yards rushing. In the last two games against winning teams, Arizona has been outscored, 58-9, which includes a 27-10 home defeat to Seattle back in Week 4.

GETTING DEFENSIVE
San Francisco?s defense ranks first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (224.4) and sits second behind New England in points allowed per game (11.0). The 49ers have not given up more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 3 against Pittsburgh, while yielding 17 points or less in six of seven contests. The ?under? has hit in three in four games away from Levi?s Stadium, while allowing a total of seven points in the last two road wins against the Rams and Redskins.

Arizona?s defense has been shredded at home in four games at State Farm Stadium this season. The Cardinals have allowed 27 points to the Lions, 38 to the Panthers, 27 to the Seahawks, and 33 to the Falcons, while the only win at home came against Atlanta in a one-point triumph. Arizona was without its top player in the secondary for those four games as Patrick Peterson sat out due to a six-game suspension, as the former LSU standout will make his home season debut on Thursday.

SERIES HISTORY
Two of Arizona?s three wins last season came against San Francisco, but there are several asterisks involved in those victories. First, the 49ers did not have Garoppolo under center, as he missed these losses due to a torn ACL suffered in September. Secondly, San Francisco was tripped up at home despite outgaining Arizona by 227 yards and committing five turnovers, while blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in the second matchup in Arizona.

Josh Rosen led the Cardinals past the 49ers at Levi?s Stadium, 28-18 as three-point underdogs, but the biggest disappointment belonged to ?under? backers. The total closed at 40 ? as Arizona led San Francisco, 14-6 heading to the fourth quarter, but the two NFC West rivals combined for 26 points in the final seven minutes, including a fumble return for a touchdown by Arizona.

San Francisco jumped out to a 15-3 advantage in Glendale three weeks later as 2 ?-point road favorites, but Rosen marched the Cardinals to a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, capped off by a nine-yard scoring strike to Christian Kirk for the go-ahead score with 34 second remaining. The Niners went with C.J. Beathard in those two games in place of Garoppolo at quarterback, as the former University of Iowa signal-caller threw for 190 yards (55 of which on a touchdown pass to Marquise Goodwin.

Arizona has captured five consecutive home meetings with San Francisco dating back to 2014, while beating San Francisco in eight straight matchups. The Niners edged the Cardinals, 23-20 in 2013 for their last win in the desert, while dominating Arizona, 24-3 in 2012 for their last victory as a road favorite (-7) in the series.

THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Underdogs have cashed in six of eight Thursday night games this season, including the Redskins covering as 16 ?-point ?dogs in last week?s 19-9 defeat at Minnesota. However, the favorite has won the last four Thursday contests, while road favorites are 1-1 SU/ATS in these games, as Tennessee lost at Jacksonville in Week 3 and Kansas City blasted Denver in Week 7.

San Francisco last appeared on a Thursday night came in 2018 as the 49ers routed the rival Raiders, 34-3 at Levi?s Stadium. Arizona would certainly like to forget its past time in the Thursday spotlight as the Broncos destroyed the Cardinals, 45-10 last season as one-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK
The total on this game opened at 44 and the number has dropped to 43 as of Thursday. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the midweek matchup.

?The success of the 49ers turnaround has been their defense and it?s truly amazing that this year?s unit is allowing 11 PPG while the club gave up 27.2 PPG last season. That production has translated into plenty of ?under? tickets even though the San Francisco offense has put up some crooked numbers at times, which includes last week?s 51-13 dominating home win over Carolina. I wouldn?t be surprised to see San Francisco light up the scoreboard again, knowing Arizona is ranked 29th in both scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (407.1 YPG). The team total on the 49ers is hovering around 26 ? points, which seems a tad low in my opinion. Especially when you know Arizona has allowed 27-plus points in all four of its home games this season,? said David.

San Francisco has watched the ?under? go 5-2 on the season, which includes a 3-1 mark away from home. Meanwhile, Arizona?s total results have been a stalemate at 4-4 but the high side has gone 3-1 in its four games from the desert. This series has leaned to the ?under? with the low side cashing in four of the last five encounters. The averaged combined points in those games was 37 PPG between the pair.

David dug up a solid season angle to watch on this matchup and it could have you leaning to the ?under? in this divisional contest. He said, ?The 49ers will likely close -10 or higher and if that?s the case, they?ll be the 19th team that is listed as a double-digit favorite this season. When you see teams laying heavy points in the NFL, most bettors would side with the favorite-over combo since a wire-to-wire blowout is expected. That hasn?t been the case though. Rather, it?s the defensive units that have carried the ?chalky? clubs so far. In the 18 games, the ?under? has gone 14-4 and that includes a 5-0 record last week.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the quarterback matchup between Murray and Garoppolo, ?Murray ranks 23rd in the league in QB Rating, but that is only a few spots behind Garoppolo. Murray has only seven passing touchdowns and hasn?t been a big play threat with just 6.8 yards per attempt, with Arizona?s offense often settling for field goals with Zane Gonzalez tied for first in the NFL with 21 made 3-pointers. Garroppolo has a nearly 70 percent completion rate but he has only nine touchdown passes along with seven interceptions as he doesn?t have the profile of a 7-0 signal-caller.?

The 49ers have been a surprise in the loaded NFC, but Nelson dug deeper into their schedule and it?s easy to see why they have been successful, ?The first six wins for the 49ers came against teams that currently have a 13-32 record. The dominant performance against the Rams stood out but last week?s blowout win over a surging Carolina team has most finally paying attention to San Francisco as a top NFC contender. Facing a short week as a road favorite in a division game will be a different role for the team and certainly the back half of the 2019 schedule is much tougher than the front half still playing Seattle twice plus games with the Packers, Ravens, and Saints in succession.?

PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions ? Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Over 19 ? (-110)
Under 19 ? (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes ? Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Over 1 ? (-130)
Under 1 ? (+110)

Total Rushing Yards ? Tevin Coleman (SF)
Over 75 ? (-110)
Under 75 ? (-110)

Total Receiving Yards ? George Kittle (SF)
Over 68 ? (-110)
Under 68 ? (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards ? Kyler Murray (ARZ)
Over 227 ? (-110)
Under 227 ? (-110)

Will the Cardinals get a rushing touchdown?
Yes +150
No -180

Total Receiving Yards ? Christian Kirk (ARZ)
Over 56 ? (-110)
Under 56 ? (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT
The 49ers opened up as 8 ?-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas on Monday with a total of 44. Rewinding back to May when CG Technologies first opened up lines on every NFL game, San Francisco was listed as a three-point favorite. The Niners have jumped to a 10-point favorite at both Westgate and CG, while the total has slipped to 42 ?.

 

[Cnotes53]

Rolling 49ers meet inconsistent Cards
October 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson remembers this version of the San Francisco 49ers.

The nine-year veteran broke into the NFL back in 2011 with Arizona and during his early years, the games against division rival San Francisco were always a difficult task. The Niners won 36 regular-season games from 2011-13 and made the Super Bowl in the 2012 season.

''To me, it resembles that same style of football,'' Peterson said. ''Building that team up front on both sides of the ball, taking their shots when they can and playing great defense. They have their personnel and they're playing some real good football.''

San Francisco (7-0) travels to face Arizona (3-4-1) on Thursday night and enters the game on quite a roll. The 49ers crushed the Carolina Panthers 51-13 on Sunday and have been plowing through their schedule with one of the league's best defenses.

Arizona is coming off a 31-9 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. That dud ended a three-game winning streak for the Cardinals, who knocked off the Bengals, Falcons and Giants in consecutive weeks before the setback in New Orleans.

Cardinals rookie quarterback Kyler Murray said that after Sunday's poor performance, the team is eager to get back on the field, especially at home.

''That should be fun. Wearing all black, Thursday night, real first prime-time game for us,'' Murray said. ''Just really trying to go out there and put on a show and protect home.''

CONDENSED SCHEDULE

The Niners took a different approach this week with a Thursday game. The coaches slept at the facility to get as much work on the game plan done as possible. For the players, sleep was the priority. San Francisco didn't practice Monday and then had a walkthrough on Tuesday under the stadium lights rather than the usual afternoon practice.

''I feel like sleep is so important on these quick turnarounds, so we wanted the guys to sleep in a little bit more than usual,'' coach Kyle Shanahan said.

Then the team planned a quick practice Wednesday before flying to Arizona.

RAGGED RUNNING GAME

Arizona's three-game winning streak was built on a balanced offense, with the team leaning on the running back duo of David Johnson and Chase Edmonds.

Now both players are injured and the Cardinals have had to adjust in a hurry.

With Edmonds (hamstring) out and Johnson (ankle) questionable for Thursday's game, the Cardinals traded for Kenyan Drake on Monday, giving up a conditional sixth-round pick in 2020.

The 25-year-old Drake joins Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner, who were signed last week because of injuries, in the running back rotation. He'll have to learn the offense in less than 72 hours to have an impact.

''It's actually funny - the longest-tenured running back here who is healthy has been here in six days,'' Drake said. ''We've all got a learning curve, but we're helping each other out.''

BOSA VS. MURRAY

This marks the first of what should be several meetings between the top two picks in the 2019 draft. Both teams are pleased with their choices with Murray off to a solid start in Arizona after being picked first and defensive end Nick Bosa dominating in San Francisco as the second pick. Bosa became the third rookie to get three sacks and an interception in a game last week against Carolina and now gets a tougher test chasing down the mobile Murray.

''I try to keep my eyes on my work, which is the offensive lineman, which helps me beat offensive linemen,'' Bosa said. ''But with a quarterback like this, you have to have eyes on the backfield and you have to know what his tendencies are when it comes to escaping so you can counter it.''

CAREFUL CARDINALS

Arizona has had no turnovers over the past four games, which is tied for the longest streak in franchise history.

The ball security is remarkable considering the Cardinals are playing with a rookie quarterback and several young players at other skill positions. Murray has thrown four interceptions this year and the Cardinals haven't lost a fumble.

The four turnovers through eight games are the fewest in the NFL.

SHERMAN VS. FITZ

San Francisco cornerback Richard Sherman and Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald have had plenty of meetings over the years as NFC West rivals. The two have faced off 14 times since Sherman entered the league with Seattle in 2011 and are often matched up against each other. Fitzgerald has 77 catches for 882 yards and three TDs in those games and the two have formed a close relationship over that time.

''I appreciate going against him the most,'' Sherman said. ''He always gives great challenges.''

 

[Cnotes53]

49ers look to end skid vs. NFC West rival
October 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly couldn't do it in their one season as head coach in San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan hasn't done it in two years with the 49ers.

The past three coaches in San Francisco have combined to lose eight straight games against the NFC West rival Cardinals heading into the first meeting this year on Thursday night in Arizona.

The Niners' last win in this rivalry came in Jim Harbaugh's final game as coach in 2014 when the playoff-bound Cardinals lost a most meaningless Week 17 game in San Francisco. It's not as if the Cardinals have been world-beaters during this stretch. After winning 13 games in 2015, Arizona hasn't had a winning record the past three seasons despite sweeping the 49ers.

Last season's result was most glaring as Arizona won both meetings and only one other game in a 3-13 campaign.

This season, the Niners (7-0) come into the game tied for second in the AP Pro32 power poll and are one of two remaining undefeated teams, while the Cardinals (3-4-1) are 21st and once again have a losing record.

Could the streak continue even though San Francisco is favored by 10 points? ...

49ERS, 27-10

KNOCKOUT POOL: The AP prognostication crew is still alive after eight weeks but it's getting tougher to find good choices still available. Considered taking the Jets at winless Miami but remembered they are still the Jets.

So the pick will be SAN FRANCISCO.

No. 26 Tampa Bay (plus 6+) at No. 7 Seattle

Jameis Winston makes plenty of big plays for the Buccaneers and far too many mistakes. Russell Wilson simply makes big plays for the Seahawks.

SEAHAWKS, 31-27

No. 10 Houston (minus 1+) vs. No. 18 Jacksonville in London

The Texans needed a goal-line stand to beat Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars in Week 2 but won't have J.J. Watt in the rematch.

UPSET SPECIAL: JACKSONVILLE, 23-21

No. 30 Washington (plus 9+) at No. 12 (tie) Buffalo

The Bills didn't have enough to handle the Eagles last week, but Washington should be a lot easier.

BUFFALO, 17-10

No. 17 Tennessee (plus 3+) at No. 15 Carolina

Ryan Tannehill won his first two starts in place of Marcus Mariota for the Titans, while Kyle Allen lost his first in place of Cam Newton. That trend won't continue.

CAROLINA, 24-21

No. 20 Chicago (plus 5) at No. 14 Philadelphia

Eagles have struggled in the secondary. That shouldn't be a problem against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.

PHILADELPHIA, 23-13

No. 5 Minnesota (off) at No. 8 (tie) Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes' status remains in doubt for Chiefs but no way they lose four straight at home, especially with how well Andy Reid's offense is functioning with Matt Moore at the helm.

KANSAS CITY, 27-24

No. 28 New York Jets (minus 3) at No. 32 Miami

If Dolphins are going to win a game this figures to be one of their best chances. Nope, maybe wait for the Bengals in Week 16.

NEW YORK, 21-20

No. 8 (tie) Indianapolis (pick `em) at No. 21 Pittsburgh

Steelers got back into contention by beating winless Dolphins. The Colts offer much stiffer competition.

INDIANAPOLIS, 23-20

No. 16 Detroit (plus 2) at No. 19 Oakland

The Raiders look to give home fans something to celebrate in their first home game since Week 2.

OAKLAND, 31-27

No. 24 Cleveland (minus 3) at No. 25 Denver

The Browns were unable to dig out of an early hole last week at New England. Beating the Broncos with backup Brandon Allen at QB should be a bit easier.

CLEVELAND, 20-16

No. 4 Green Bay (minus 3) at No. 23 Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers got lucky to win at Chicago last week. That might be just enough to provide momentum against the much tougher Packers.

LOS ANGELES, 28-24

No. 1 New England (minus 3+) at No. 6 Baltimore

League's top two scoring offenses meet up in prime-time showdown. Patriots also have stingiest defense.

NEW ENGLAND, 27-24

No. 12 (tie) Dallas (minus 7) at No. 27 New York Giants

The Cowboys have beat up against bad teams except for a loss at the Jets. No way they lose twice at the Meadowlands.

BEST BET: Dallas, 30-17

---

2019 RECORD:

Last Week: 9-6 against spread, 12-3 straight up.

Season Totals: 66-54-1 against spread, 76-43-1 straight up.

Best Bet: 6-2 against spread, 6-2 straight up.

Upset special: 5-3 against spread, 5-3 straight up.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


THE HYPE IS LOUD

One would think that the loss of Davante Adams would affect Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers? offense. However, the Packers are a perfect 4-0 without the star receiver and averaging 32.5 points. That mark would put them tops in the league and nearly 10 points higher than their PPG with Adams on the Field.

Rodgers has also seen his passer rating jump 18 points up to 118.7 as he will look to take Matt LaFleur?s rolling offense to L.A. to face the Chargers. The Bolts have seen the weakest stretch of opposing QBs over the last five weeks: M.Trubisky, R.Tannehill, D.Hodges, J.Flacco, and J.Rosen. The Bolts went 2-3 SU (2-3 ATS) over those five games and allowed an average of 18.4 completions, 211 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception.

All the Rodgers hype has led to some bloated prop lines especially on his completions which sit at 25.5 ? a number he has eclipsed just twice this year and no QB has topped versus LAC. The Chargers are also giving up 140 rushing yards at home which has us leaning on a heavier Green Bay rushing attack. We are hitting the Under on Rodgers? completions of 25.5.


AS FIT AS A KITTLE

If you are a fan of betting on offensive/defensive matchups, then you have probably already circled tonight?s San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals game on your calendar. The Cards have the worst pass defense to opposing tight ends, allowing 90 yards on 8.3 passes per game to the big receivers. Tonight, the Cards will face one of the best in the business in George Kittle.

The 49ers are dinged up in the running-back department as Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are questionable. This leaves the door open for Kittle to have a big game against the Cardinals linebacker Jordan Hicks who is allowing a 93 percent catch rate to TEs. Look for Kittle to pass his reception total of 5.5 ? a number he has passed in four of his last five games.


THE BOYS ARE BACK IN TOWN

With the news that New York Giants receiver Sterling Shepard has shed his non-contact jersey after missing time with a concussion, it would mean that the Giants may finally get their full offensive unit for their Monday night game versus Dallas. It will be the first game that Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram Golden Tate and Shepard will share the field.

The Giants may not be winning of late but the offense has been competent as Daniel Jones is coming off a career-high in passing yards with 322 versus the Detroit Lions. The Giants showed that they can play catch up and put points on the board after trailing by double digits three separate times last week and losing by just five.

With the Cowboys defense being anything but consistent (19th DVOA defense), we are leaning on the Over of the Giants? team total of 19.5.


JAX THE RIPPER

The Jacksonville Jaguars will head to their second home this Sunday as the Garner Minshew-led Jags will take on the Houston Texans in jolly old London. Receiver D.J. Chark may lead the team in receiving yards, but Minshew has a new side piece that has been getting a lot of attention of late.

Chris Conley leads the Jags in receiving yards over the last two weeks hauling in seven passes for 186 yards and a score with catches of 70 and 47 yards. The 4.3 speedster has the ability to turn short catches into long gains and can get behind the defense as his 20.4 yards per reception indicates.

Also in Conley?s favor is that Houston is allowing over 300 yards passing on the road this year and fellow Jag receiver Dede Westbrook is questionable after being removed from last Sunday?s game.

Take the Over on Conley?s receiving yards on any total below 60 yards.


GONE IN 30 MINUTES

The Buffalo Bills bandwagon blew a tire last week with their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and now have the Redskins on tap for Week 9. Many are starting to worry about the capabilities of their offense as Josh Allen has put up just 558 yards and been out produced by opposing offenses in back-to-back weeks ? that includes the Dolphins.

Where the team is struggling the most is putting up points early; specifically in the first half where they sit 26th in first-half points with 8.7. Luckily for them, Washington is even worse in the first 30 minutes, scoring just 6.6 points in the first half and even less (4.3) over their last three games.

With the lowest total of the week at 36.5, take the 1H Under 19.5 points as it could be a cold and windy day in Buffalo.

 

[Cnotes53]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 9 odds: Raiders are ready to return home
Jason Logan

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball, ranked fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaging almost 26 points per game over its last four outings.

Situational handicapping ? more popularly known as spot betting ? is a great way to find hidden value on or against a certain team. From letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots, these blips on the calendar are just one of the weapons NFL bettors can use in their fight against the bookmakers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 9 schedule and gives his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact the outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (+3.5, 47)

The Chargers finally snapped their three-game losing skid thanks to some classic kicking from the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Chicago kicker Eddy Pineiro botched a game-winning field goal, allowing the Bolts to escape the Windy City with a much-needed 17-16 victory.

Los Angeles has been in some tight contests this season, with all but one of its first eight games decided by a touchdown or less. The Week 8 win allows the franchise to exhale but only after pinning offense coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as the sacrificial lamb, firing him on Monday after the team slogged through offensive issues in the first half of the schedule.

The Chargers return ?home? to Dignity Health Sports Park, which will undoubtedly be overtaken by resident and vacationing Cheeseheads this Sunday. With some of the urgency erased following that win, and the offense play calling in flux, this could be a bad spot for the Bolts in Week 9.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6, 51.5)

The Buccaneers have been a sharp play in Week 9, drawing some action from the wiseguys for their trip to Seattle on Sunday. Tampa Bay has slimmed from +6.5 to +6, playing in what will be the team?s fifth straight road game, thanks to a chunk of scheduling that took the Bucs away from Raymond James Stadium (including across the pond to London, England and a Week 7 bye) for 49 days.

While the Seahawks are a formidable opponent and most teams wouldn?t look past that challenge, the homesick Buccos could be running on empty after crossing the country and dreaming of a full week in their own beds, heading into a Week 11 home stand with Arizona.

Tampa Bay has managed to cover the spread only once on this grueling four-game road stretch and is 6-8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2017.


SCHEDULE SPOT: DETROIT LIONS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2, 50.5)

We mentioned the Buccaneers? long road home just within reach, but the Oakland Raiders are coming out the other end of a similar stretch of schedule that last saw them inside RingCentral Coliseum on September 15.

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball. After a 2018 in which the Silver and Black ranked among the basement in most scoring stats, this year?s Raiders are currently fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaged almost 26 points per game over their last four outings ? all away from home.

Detroit makes the cross-country trek to the Bay Area with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and has injury concerns around standouts Snacks Harrison and Darius Slay. Action seems to be siding with Oakland in his homecoming, moving the spread from -1.5 to -2.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SF at ARI 08:20 PM

ARI +10.0 *****

U 43.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

49ers move to 8-0, edge Cardinals
October 31, 2019

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 317 yards and four touchdowns and the San Francisco 49ers reached the halfway point of their season undefeated, beating the Arizona Cardinals 28-25 on Thursday night.

San Francisco (8-0) fell behind 7-0, but responded with three touchdowns - one as time expired in the second quarter after Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury called a timeout and gave the 49ers a second chance on fourth down - to take a 21-7 halftime lead.

The 49ers were in control until about five minutes left in the fourth quarter, when Andy Isabella caught a short pass and sprinted for an 88-yard touchdown to help the Cardinals pull to 28-25.

But the 49ers were able to run out the clock on their ensuing offensive drive to end Arizona's comeback. San Francisco's Emmanuel Sanders caught seven passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Arizona (3-5-1) lost its second straight game. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns.

The Cardinals came into the game without their top two running backs, David Johnson and Chase Edmonds, who were battling injuries.

Kenyan Drake - who was acquired by the Cardinals on Monday in a trade with the Miami Dolphins - ran for 36s yard on the first play of the game and capped the opening drive with a 4-yard touchdown run. He finished with a team-high 110 yards rushing and 52 yards receiving.

BAD TIMING

Arizona looked as if was about to escape the first half trailing 14-7 after San Francisco's Jeff Wilson Jr. was stopped on fourth down just shy of the goal line with a few seconds remaining in the first half.

But there was one major problem for the Cardinals: Kingsbury called a timeout just before the play began.

The 49ers converted on their second chance when Garoppolo hit Sanders for a 1-yard touchdown pass and a 21-7 lead.

ROAD WARRIORS

San Francisco's off to an 8-0 start for the second time in franchise history. The Niners won 10 straight games to start the 1990 season.

This year's streak has included five road wins. The 49ers have three straight home games starting with the Seahawks on Nov. 11.

KITTLE SCARE

The 49ers got a scare early when star tight end George Kittle left the game after taking a helmet to the knee. But the third-year star quickly returned and responded with a 30-yard touchdown catch late in the first quarter to tie it at 7.

INJURIES

49ers: Defensive lineman Arik Armstead left in the first quarter with a throat injury but returned to the game. ... Linebacker Kwon Alexander had a chest injury in the second half and didn't return.

Cardinals: Defensive lineman Clinton McDonald left with what a ''stinger'' in the third quarter.

UP NEXT

San Francisco returns home to face Seattle on Nov. 11 for a Monday night game.

Arizona travels to Tampa Bay on Nov. 10.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, November 3, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
9:30 AM Houston Texans Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM New York Jets Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Indianapolis Colts Pittsburgh Steelers
4:05 PM Detroit Lions Oakland Raiders
4:05 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Seattle Seahawks
4:25 PM Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Los Angeles Chargers
8:20 PM New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens

Monday, November 4, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Dallas Cowboys New York Giants


*******************************


NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/31/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/28/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/27/2019.....14-9-0..........60.87%.............+20.50
10/24/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/21/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/20/2019.....13-8-1...........61.90%............+21.00
10/17/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00% .............-0.50
10/14/2019.......2-0-0.........100.00%.............+10.00
10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/31/2019.............1 - 0..........+5.00..................0 - 1...........-5.50.............-0.50
10/28/2019.............1 - 0..........+5.00..................0 - 1...........-5.50.............-0.50
10/27/2019.............6 - 4..........+8.00..................4 - 4...........-2.00.............+6.00
10/24/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/21/2019.............1 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/20/2019.............8 - 4..........+18.00................5 - 5............-2.50............+15.50
10/17/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0............+5.00............-0.50
10/14/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0............+5.00.............+10.00
10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50.................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50................6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00................3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00................4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00................1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00................7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50................2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50................8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack

Monmouth College ran a poll of favorite Halloween candies:

? Reese?s Peanut Butter Cups: 36%

? Snickers: 18%

? M&M?s: 11%

? Hershey bars: 6%

? Candy corn: 6%

? Skittles: 5%

Quote of the Day
?You must do the thing which you think you cannot do.?
Eleanor Roosevelt

Friday?s quiz
Who coached the Arizona Cardinals in their one Super Bowl?

Thursday?s quiz
Karl Malone has made the most free throws in NBA history (9,787)

Wednesday?s quiz
Dave Wannstedt was the Miami Dolphins? coach last time they won a playoff game, in 2000.

**********************

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here?..

13) Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Padres signed Manny Machado, but Washington won the World Series. Here is the money Washington spent on pitching:

? Strasburg: seven years, $175M
? Scherzer: seven years, $210M
? Corbin: six years, $140M
? Sanchez: two years, $19M

Starting pitching still matters.

12) Gerrit Cole is about to break the bank in free agency; wonder what his agent?s blood pressure was Wednesday night when Cole started throwing in the bullpen, three nights after he threw 110 pitches Sunday. Don?t want the star client getting hurt.

Lets say Cole banks $35M a year for four years in his next contract (Zack Greinke makes that now); the agent?s take (3%) of all that would be $4,200,000.

11) 49ers 28, Cardinals 25? 49ers led 28-14 but Arizona kept America entertained until the end; Garoppolo was 27-36/306 and four TD?s passng, as the 49ers improved to 8-0.

10) When the Rams traded injured CB Aqib Talib to Miami this week, you figure Talib would be insulted or ticked off, but because of state income tax laws, Talib actually saves $560,000- he moved from California to Florida, where taxes are lower. Good week for him.

9) Two of my favorite NBA players to watch are both on the Clippers; Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell; they aren?t stat guys, they just work their butts off and make life uncomfortable for their opponents. Guys like that make life easier for the stat guys.

8) Baylor 17, West Virginia 14? Bears improve to 8-0, even though they?ve been favored only twice in their last five games. Baylor has three wins by 3 or fewer points.

7) NFL road teams are 71-45-2 ATS so far this season.

6) Jimmy Butler?s stats in Miami?s 106-97 win over Atlanta Thursday: 5 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 6 steals and 3 blocks. Heat was +21 with Butler on the floor, -12 with hm off the floor. You don?t have to score all the time to be a difference maker.

5) Wayne Ellington has scored 5,298 points in his 11-year NBA career; Knicks are the ninth NBA team he?s played for. His best scoring year was two years ago, when he scored 11.8 ppg for Miami.

Ellington played three years at North Carolina, scoring 14.7 ppg, was 28th player taken in the 2009 Draft. Betcha he could write a helluva book, playing on nine teams in 11 years.

4) Georgia Southern 24, Appalachian State 21? Mountaineers had gotten up to #20 in country, but then lost at home on national TV to their longtime rivals from back in their I-AA days.

3) Joel Embiid and Karl Anthony Towns both got suspended two games for their part in a small scuffle during Wednesday?s game. On NBA TV, couple of retired players were laughing, saying that back in the 90?s, when the NBA game was much more physical than it is now, the players wouldn?t even have gotten tossed out of the game.

2) Kansas City Royals named former Cardinal skipper Mike Matheny their new manager; he was 591-474 in seven years in St Louis, 21-22 in playoff games, but he missed the playoffs this last three years, which is why the Cardinals told him to take a hike.

1) Only 105 days until pitchers/catchers report for the 2020 baseball season.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis

PIVOT PROBLEMS

The Oakland Raiders have a serious problem with their pivot as backup center Andre James didn?t practice Wednesday. Already without starter Rodney Houston, the Raiders would need Richie Incognito to slide in at center if James can?t ready before Sunday?s game versus the Detroit Lions.

This comes as a bad time for the Silver and Black as the Lions are getting their two starting defensive tackles back for the tilt. Lions? No.1 corner Darius Slay is also trending towards playing.

Carr has been sacked just eight times all year and may face a bit more pressure than he is accustomed to, forcing him into some riskier passes. We are banking on the Lions to capitalize on this and are taking Over 0.5 interceptions for the Raiders QB.


TOM NOT-SO TERRIFIC

The Baltimore Ravens? secondary is getting healthier ahead of their big AFC matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens will have free safety Earl Thomas and get stud corner Jimmy Smith back, as well. This will push corner Marlon Humphrey (positive PFF grade) into the slot where he will see a heavy dose of Julian Edleman.

Tom Brady has played to a passer rating of 83.3 over his last five games and Sunday?s game will be just his second time, and first in five weeks, facing a team with a winning record this year. His QBR rating of 58.7 is also the worst mark of his career.

We are 1-0 this year betting against the GOAT and looking to fade his passing total in Week 9. Take the Under on Tom Terrific's 292.5 passing yard total.


ACCIDENTS WILL ALLEN

The Denver Broncos have punted the most over their last three games at 7.3 a game and have converted an abysmal 12.8 percent of their third downs over that stretch. This is the offense that Joe Flacco has passed down to Brandon Allen for the Broncos Week 9 matchup with the Cleveland Browns.

Allen has yet to take a regular-season snap since being drafted in the sixth-round in 2016. In the preseason, however, the newest member of the Broncos has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 13 times in 226 pass attempts (62.8 completion percent). It?s tough to be worse than Flacco, but Allen has a good chance of doing it against the Browns whose defense is tied for eighth in completions against at 21.1.

Flacco averaged 21 completions over his eight starts this year and cleared 20 completions just once in his last four. There is a better chance that Allen falls on his face than he performs better than Flacco. Take the Under on Allen?s 20.5 completions.


BACKING A BOTHERED BELL

Last week we backed Le?Veon Bell?s rushing total and came up plenty short. We weren?t the only ones who were upset as even Bell, himself, was frustrated and angry about his lack of touches. But it looks like head coach, Adam Gase and the running back have made amends, and are ?on the same page? ahead of the Jets matchup against the Miami Dolphins, a game in which the Jets are favored for the first time since Week 1.

The Dolphins are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents at 160 as they are giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt. The ?Fins have also allowed three backs to eclipse the century mark over their last five games: James Connor, Adrian Peterson and Ezekiel Elliott.

We are chasing last week?s loss on the squeaky-wheel theory and riding the Over on Bell?s rushing total of 75.5 yards.


KICKING PLAY OF THE WEEK

In the four games at New Era Stadium this year, the longest field goal made was 46 yards. That was in Week 4 with warmer and less windy conditions than Sunday's game between the Redskins and Bills.

Last week, the northwest had some serious winds that really hampered teams? kickers. This week in Buffalo, the temperature will be just above freezing with strong winds of the 20-mph variety.

Washington Kicker Dustin Hopkins is just 1-for-3 from 40 and longer since Week 1, while Buffalo kicker Stephen Hauschka is 0-for-3 in attempts from 49 or farther. We are making the WSH/BUF longest field goal Under 45.5 our kicking play of the week.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 9 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is questionable for Sunday's home game against Minnesota. If he plays, The SuperBook expects to set a line of Chiefs -2.5; if he sits, it'll be Vikings -3.5.

To play, or not to play? In NFL Week 9, that is the question surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Mahomes didn?t play in the Week 8 Sunday night game against Green Bay, while recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Matt Moore had a solid outing, but the Chiefs lost 31-24 as 5-point home underdogs. Friday, Mahomes was listed as questionable for a home tilt against the Vikings. The game has been off the board all week, pending some finality on Mahomes. ?If he plays, the line will come out around Chiefs -2.5,? Osterman said. ?If he?s out, it would be Vikings around -3.5.?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: A calf injury will keep wideout T.Y. Hilton off the field at Pittsburgh. ?That moved the line 1 point. He?s really the Colts? only big-play weapon, so he means a little bit more than wide receiver on some other teams.? Indianapolis was at +1 Friday afternoon, on a line that spent the week bouncing between pick, -1 and +1.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Running back James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful against the Colts, meaning Jaylen Samuels ? who missed the past two games with a knee issue ? will shoulder the load. ?Not much effect on the line. Samuels is not much of a drop-off from Conner.? The Steelers were 1-point favorites Friday.

DENVER BRONCOS: Quarterback Joe Flacco (neck) is on injured reserve and done for the year. That caused the SuperBook to move from Broncos -1 straight to Browns -2.5 on Monday. ?The sharps didn?t beat us to the news. We were on the front end of that move,? Osterman said. ?Flacco being out moved the game 3-3.5 points, and then the sharp bets moved it another point-and-a-half.? By early Friday, visiting Cleveland was at -4.5.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams, out the past month with a toe injury, is listed as questionable on the road against the Chargers, but it appears likely he?ll return. ?Adams would be a half-point move if he is confirmed as playing.? The Packers were at -3.5 Friday night.


Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT BUFFALO: There?s a 40 percent chance of precipitation, with the wind blowing in the mid-teens, but The SuperBook isn?t concerned at this point. ?No effect. We don?t see moves for wind unless it?s more than 25 mph, typically.? Buffalo is -10, with a low total of 36.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated in the Miami area on Sunday, with a 40 percent chance of rain. But again, no impact yet on the odds. ?We won?t move for rain unless it?s actually raining the day of game.? The Jets are -3 against the winless Dolphins, with a total of 42.5.


Pros vs. Joes

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This is a recurring theme with the Patriots. ?Pros are all over the Ravens, and the public is all over the Patriots again.? The Patriots opened -5 for the Sunday night game, but that sharp play dropped New England to -3 by Thursday.

TAMPA BAY AT SEATTLE: The Seahawks opened -6 and dipped to -4 by early Friday, before ticking up to -4.5. ?The Seahawks are a popular public side this week, but there has been a ton of sharp action on Tampa Bay.?

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: This AFC South clash opened pick, stretched to Texans -2.5, then backed off to Houston -1.5 by midweek. ?The public likes the Texans this week. The sharp side is the Jaguars plus the points.?


Reverse Line Moves

GREEN BAY AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: ?We opened Packers -4 and now we?re at -3.5 (even),? Osterman said Friday afternoon. The line actually got as low as Green Bay -2.5 at one point. ?We?ve gotten a lot of Packers money, but the market is moving toward the Chargers.?

In addition, Osterman said all three of the Pros vs. Joes games listed above have seen reverse line movement.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


STILLS STILL NO .2

Houston Texans? No. 2 receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out for the London game this Sunday leaving Kenny Stills as the second option in Deshaun Watson?s passing attack. Fuller has basically missed the last two games and in his absence, Stills has been a boom or bust bet with 105 yards and four catches in Week 7 and just 22 yards on three grabs last week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars do own the league?s seventh-best DVOA pass defense but Stills might see more one-on-one coverage with most of the attention and safety help keying on DeAndre Hopkins.

With Stills? receiving total on the high side at 60.5 yards, we will be keying in on his reception total of 3.5 and look to grab the Over. Stills and the Houston offense are averaging 27 completions a game so there is plenty of room for Stills to reach this modest total.


HOWARD TO RUN VERSUS FORMER TEAM

The Philadelphia Eagles might be looking to go on one of their mid-season runs on the heels of last week?s convincing win in Buffalo. This Eagles squad is successful as a run-first offense as they ran the ball 41 times last week, more than any other team in Week 8.

Jordan Howard has been the biggest beneficiary of the Eagles? game plan as the former Bear saw 71 percent of the offensive snaps last week and has been dominating early-down work. Chicago?s defense has been better against the pass than the run which should suit Doug Pederson?s game script for Sunday.

Howard will be running with extra motivation as he will face his former employer and has a good chance of going Over his carry total of 16.5.


COLTS? PASS CATCHERS QUESTIONABLE

The Indianapolis Colts are scoring just 20.7 points on the road this year and will be without an important piece of their passing game Sunday when they take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

T.Y. Hilton was downgraded to DNP on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday and has now been ruled out with a calf injury. Hilton has nearly double the targets as the next Indy receiver since their bye in Week 6 and has five touchdowns through six games.

Tight end Eric Ebron didn?t practice Thursday but will likely play Sunday. Ebron has been a steady passing option for Jacoby Brissett, averaging over four targets a game going over 45 yards three times.

The player to benefit the most would be tight end Jack Doyle who has seen the second-most targets since Week 7 and has averaged 42 yards a game over that stretch. We are doubling down on Doyle and hitting his Over 3.5 receptions and Over on his 35.5 receiving yards which are reasonable totals even with Ebron healthy and Hilton playing.


BEST VS WORST

Here is a list of some of the best and worst ?defense versus receiver? matchups per Football Outsiders. Receiving totals are in parentheses.

D.Hopkins (86.5) vs. Jaguars: The Texans and DeAndre Hopkins are taking the show on the road to London this week. Deshaun Watson?s main squeeze has a dream matchup versus a secondary that is giving up 93 yards on 8.9 passes per game to No.1 receivers. DeAndre is coming in hot as he has eclipse 100 yards in two straight games and has passed his 86.5 yard total in three of his last four weeks. Greenlight on the Over.

Odell Beckham Jr (71.5) vs. Broncos: OBJ has topped 71 yards receiving just twice in seven games this year and is facing a defense that has allowed just 52.1 yards a game to teams? No.1s. The Broncos have shut down top receivers this year including T.Y. Hilton - 54 yards, T. Hill - 74 yards, A. Humphries - 47 yards and K. Allen - 18 yards over their last four games. Greenlight on the Under 71.5.

Evan Engram (61.5) vs. Cowboys: The New York Giants have their full arsenal of offensive weapons suiting up this week. This means the league?s fourth-worst team at containing opposing tight ends (70.3 yards on 7.6 passes per game) will have their hands full and won?t be able to cheat on Monday night. Engram torched Jerry and the Boys in Week 1 for 116 yards on 11 catches and a score. Engram has also topped 61 yards receiving in three straight games versus Dallas, dating back to last year. Greenlight Engram?s Over at 61.5 receiving yards.

Mark Andrews (56.5) vs. Patriots: No tight end has reached 60 yards receiving versus the New England defense this year. Asking Mark Andrews to top a number he has only hit just once in his last five games versus a top-three defense is asking a lot. Feel confident taking the Under on Andrews? receiving total of 56.5.

Leonard Fournette (33.5) vs. Texans: Leonard Fournette has the 11th-most receiving yards by a running back this year heading into Wembley for Sunday morning's game. The Jacksonville running back is averaging 5.6 targets a game while the Texans are surrendering a league-worst 7.5 yards per target to opposing RBs. That math (7.5 x 5.6) puts us at 25 percent over Fournette?s receiving total of 33.5 yards. Greenlight is a go here.

Dion Lewis (14.5) vs. Panthers: Not much to see here as 15 yards is a little too low for our liking. If you must, Lewis has seen just two targets in the passing game over the last two weeks for a whopping two yards. Carolina is allowing just 25 yards through the air to oppossing RBs. This one is a pass for us.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 13-0 ATS (9.35 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they rushed for at least 100 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-8.32 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 off a road game in which they had less than 26 minutes of possession time.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 9-0-2 OU (7.77 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 when Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns on the road last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by double digits in 4+ straight games are 65-51 OU. Active win Minnesota and New England.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-10-1 OU (-8.27 ppg) since Nov 22, 2010 at home coming off a win where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 10-0 OU (12.90 ppg) since Sep 23, 2007 as a home favorite playing a team scoring at least 24 points per game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 ATS (-17.95 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent after a win in which they came back from a deficit.