CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 9
Joe Williams

It's Week 9 of the National Football League regular season, as we'll be past the halfway points after this weekend and heading for the home stretch. We have a return of several divisional matchups, an intriguing battle over in London for the final game of the season from England, as well as a potentially thrilling battle on Sunday Night Football betwee the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 8 6-9 8-7 6-9
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 55-65-1 56-64-1 54-63-4

The betting public struck back in Week 8 with some small gains after getting dusted by the books in the previous three weekends. Last week we saw nine under results and six over results, which is generally a win for the books.

Heading into Sunday's London game between the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The high side has gone 2-1 in the three games from England this season and that includes a 2-0 mark at the two battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the under hit in last week's Wembley game. We note that because that's the same venue as this weekend's battle.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 9 were not rewarded as the 'under' produced a 9-6 mark in the final 30 minutes. Through 121 games this season, the 'under' sits at 65-55-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (64-56-1) and second-half (63-54-4).

Division Bell

We had no division battles in Week 8, so we take a look back at the previous week. There were a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0

London Totals

We have had three total games in London to date, with the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium cashing over tickets, while last week's battle between the Rams and Bengals hit the under. The Rams didn't exactly light the world afire offensively, and the Bengals were...well...the Bengals. They're winless for a reason. This week's game features a potent offense from the Texans, and a subpar defense. For the Jaguars, they have also moved the ball quite well while checking in with a middling defense.

The Texans will be playing in their first game in England, although they have been involved in an International Series game, falling 27-20 to the Oakland Raiders at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Nov. 21, 2016, a game which hit the 'over'.

For the Jaguars, London has been a home away from home. This will be their seventh appearance in England, hitting the 'over' in five of the six battles. Last season's Week 7 battle against the Eagles was their first 'under' overseas, and that cashed just barely. In their only AFC South Division battle in London, they topped the Colts 30-27 on Oct. 2, 2016 for an 'over' result.

London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 8 - 2019 - Cincinnati vs. L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 24, Cincinnati 10
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Denver: 43 to 39
Chicago at Philadelphia: 45 to 41 ?
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: 43 ? to 40 ?
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: 46 to 48 ?
New England at Baltimore (SNF): 46 ? to 44 ?
Tennessee at Carolina: 40 to 42
Minnesota at Kansas City: 46 to 48

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: Over 96%
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 91%
Tennessee at Carolina: Over 87%
Houston at Jacksonville (London): Over 83%
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (MNF): Over 79%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Jets-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Baltimore (67 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.

Handicapping Week 9

Week 8 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 0-0 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 2-3 14-14
AFC vs. AFC 1-4 11-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 18-18

Other Week 9 Action

Houston at Jacksonville (9:30 a.m. ET - London): The Texans will play in their first game in England, and just their second international game to date. The 'over' hit in their only previous non-United States battle. For the Texans, they have scored 23 or more points in each of their past four games, and they just missed the under by a half-point or point at most shops last week against the Raiders. Since tuning up Atlanta on Oct. 6 the Texans are averaging a robust 33.3 points per game across the past four, while allowing 24 or more points (32, 24, 30, 24) during the span. While that's all well and good, remember these players to a 13-12 battle in Houston back in Week 2, with the Texans coming out on top.

Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans hit the 'under' in five of their first six games, including a shutout loss Oct. 13 in Denver. They elected to make a change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, and so far the move is paying off over the former Dolphins' past two outings. After averaging just 11.0 PPG in five outings from Week 2 through Week 6, the Titans have posted 23 and 27 in a pair of wins and 'over' results. The Panthers hit the over in last week's game in San Francisco, but it was mostly the doing of the 49ers. They were dumped 51-13 in a crazy loss for the defense, which has allowed 27, 26 and 51 across the past three contests. As expected, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. That's probably part of the reason this total has been on a move, up two points from an open of 40.

Chicago at Philadelphia: The Bears have dropped three in a row entering play in this one, now they get to face old buddy RB Jordan Howard and the equally hungry Eagles. The Bears have scored 16 or more points in six straight, and they're averaging 19 PPG across the past three. The 'over' is 2-1 in the past three games because the defense has gone south lately, mainly because the offense cannot stay on the field and the defense is likely getting worn down. Chicago's vaunted defense allowed 11.3 PPG over the first four outings, but they have yielded 25.7 PPG across the past three. Philly will be returning home after three straight road games which saw the 'over' hit in two battles, including last week's 31-13 win at Buffalo. Philly has hit for 20 or more points in seven of the first eight games, and they rank 21st in the NFL, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Minnesota at Kansas City: The Vikings offense sputtered last Thursday night in a 19-9 win over the Redskins, a big departure from their previous three games of production. In their past three Sunday battles the Vikings were averaging 36.0 PPG while allowing 20.0 PPG. Against the Chiefs, they'll need to be on point. Even with backup QB Matt Moore in for the injured QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) last week, the Chiefs posted 24 points in the first 'over' of the season on Sunday Night Football. The 'over' is 3-1 for Kansas City at home, and 2-0 against the NFC North Division so far this season.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The one-win Jets and winless Dolphins lock horns at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday with draft position on the line. The Dolphins have resembled an NFL caliber offense over the past three games since a bye, averaging 17.0 PPG, which isn't much, but is much greater than the 6.5 PPG they averaged in the first four games Still, the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three home games for the Dolphins. The Jets have averaged just 7.5 PPG over the past two games, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in three games against AFC East Division foes this season, posting 16, 14 and 0 in those three contests.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Colts offense stumbled against the Broncos sturdy defense last week, but they still won. However, they'll need more than 15 points if they want to top the Steelers on the road. Indianapolis has hit the 'under' in their past three road outings, and they're averaging just 20.7 PPG in three games away from home, including 19 and 19 in the past two regulation games, both 'under' results. The Steelers defense has been better over the past four games, although they hae played a pair of winless teams and a toothless Chargers offense during the span. Still, the 'under is 4-1 over their past five outings. The offense has scored 20 or more points in six straight despite some injury woes.

Detroit at Oakland: The Lions rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game, posting 282.7 yards, and they're 31st in total yards allowed (420.4) and 32nd in the NFL against the pass (289.7). Detroit has allowed 23 or more points in five straight games, and six of the seven overall, hitting the 'over' in four of the past five, and five of seven. Defense also isn't a strong suit for the Raiders, as they're 31st against the pass (288.0). Look for QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr to hook up in a shootout, and subsequently plenty of points.

Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Buccaneers roll in on a 5-0 'over' run, posting 31, 55, 24, 26 and 23 across their past five games on offense, while allowing 32, 40, 31, 37 and 27 on defense during the same span. Tampa Bay's games have looked like college scores, and the Seahawks have to be licking their chops. The Seahawks have hit the 'over' in each of their past three home games, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense while yielding 27.3 PPG during the three-game span.

Cleveland at Denver: The Browns were expected to be a juggernaut on offense, but they have struggled with consistency, turnovers and discipline through the first seven outings. They hit the 'under' last week in New England, and the under is 3-1 in four games away from the shores of Lake Erie this season. They're averaging 19.0 PPG in four road games, and those numbers are skewed a bit due to a 40-point outburst in Baltimore on Sept. 29. In their three 'under' results the Browns are posting just 13.0 PPG. The Broncos make a change to QB Brandon Allen for the injured QB Joe Flacco (neck). The Broncos have struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 11.7 PPG over the past three, and 15.0 PPG in four outings at home, hitting the 'under' in three games at Mile High.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: The Packers offense has been on fire, posting 23 or more points in six straight outings, cashing the 'over' in five of those outings. That including a 3-0 record against three previous AFC West clubs. They're averaging 33.4 PPG in three meetings against AFC West teams this season while allowing 21.4 PPG in this battles. The Chargers have been the complete opposite, hitting the 'under' in six of the past seven, including 2-0 vs. NFC North teams. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three at home.

Heavy Expectations

There are just one game listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 9, with the home team listed as favorites. The total is 36.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins play their fifth game this season as a double-digit underdog. They have scored a total of 16 points (5.3 PPG) across their past three as a double-digit 'dog, and they have hit the under in five in a row overall. Washington will be using rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in his first NFL start, and he can't be any worse after the offense totaled nine points in the past two games. The Bills hit the 'over' in their only previous game this season as a double-digit favorite in Week 7, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their past two games at home.

Under the Lights

New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle will be much anticipated, and the SNF game saw the 'over' hit last week after an 8-0 'under' run to start. This game might be a return to the under. New England's defense has been sick, allowing just 234.0 total yards per game and 7.6 PPG to rank No. 1 in each category, while allowing 85.2 rushing yards per outing. That will be put to the test with the dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game to lead the NFL, with Jackson good for a team-high 576 yards on the ground. They're averaging 30.6 PPG to rank No. 2 in points scored, too, so they'll be the biggest challenge for New England's defense to date.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Cowboys and Giants square off Monday night in New Jersey. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven divisional games for the Cowboys, while going 12-3-1 in their past 16 games following a bye week. It's the complete opposite, with the under hitting in four in a row for the Giants, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on MNF. However, the over is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in New Jersey. Remember, RB Saquon Barkley is back from injury to help spur the offense along.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday Blitz - Week 9
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Titans at Panthers (-3 ?, 42) ? 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is right back in the AFC South race after picking up consecutive home wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a spark at quarterback the last two weeks as the Titans scored 23 and 27 points following a two-week stretch of seven combined points. Granted, both games came down to the end but Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season, while the Titans already own road underdog victories at Cleveland and Atlanta.

The Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) limp home after getting blasted by the undefeated 49ers last Sunday, 51-13 as 4 ?-point underdogs. Carolina fell into a 27-3 halftime hole as the Panthers saw their four-game winning streak snapped, while quarterback Kyle Allen was intercepted three times. The Panthers had scored 34 points or more in three of their previous four wins, as Carolina returns to Bank of America Stadium for its second home game in the last seven weeks.

Carolina has won six consecutive home games against AFC foes since 2016, while Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak against NFC squads on the road since last season. The Panthers routed the Titans in Nashville in their previous matchup in 2015 as 3 ?-point favorites, 27-10, as the starting quarterbacks in that game were Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Panthers 24

Vikings (-4, 47) at Chiefs ? 1:00 PM EST
The race atop the NFC North continues to be a good one between Green Bay and Minnesota, who are separated by one game heading into Week 9. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off their fourth straight victory after holding off the feisty Redskins, 19-9 in a Week 8 Thursday night battle as Minnesota failed to cover as 16 ?-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins continues to play well by throwing 10 touchdowns passes in the last four contests, while completing 23-of-26 passes against his former team for 285 yards last week.

The Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) will likely be without last season?s MVP Patrick Mahomes for a second straight game after missing last Sunday night?s 31-24 loss to the Packers recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Kansas City has dropped three consecutive home games and last lost three games in a season at Arrowhead Stadium back in 2013. Matt Moore will start at quarterback once again, but the running game has been non-existent by being held to 88 yards or fewer in the last four contests (1-3).

The Vikings lost their first two road games of the season at Green Bay and Chicago, while scoring a total of 22 points in those defeats. Minnesota has rebounded in the past two away victories against the Giants and Lions (granted lesser competition), but the Vikings posted 70 points in those wins. Kansas City?s offense obviously takes a hit without Mahomes, but the Chiefs scored 20 points without the former Texas Tech star in the final three quarters at Denver before putting up 24 against Green Bay.

Best Bet: Vikings 24, Chiefs 20

Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4 ?, 53) ? 4:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) shocked many people in its Week 4 blowout of the NFC Champion Rams, 55-40 as nine-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2. The Buccaneers haven?t won since by dropping three consecutive games, while allowing 31, 37, and 27 points in this stretch. The most recent defeat came at Tennessee last Sunday as two-point underdogs in a 27-23 setback to drop to 2-2 on the highway. Jameis Winston has been intercepted seven times in the last two games, as the Buccaneers are riding a five-game streak to the OVER.

The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) built a 24-0 halftime lead at Atlanta last Sunday before holding off the Falcons, 27-20. Due to the questionable status of Falcons? quarterback Matt Ryan all week, there wasn?t a line on the game until Ryan was ruled out and Seattle closed as a 7 ?-point favorite. Following that non-cover, the Seahawks fell to 1-5 ATS this season when laying points, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark at CenturyLink Field. Seattle will look to sure up its defense at home as the Seahawks have yielded 33, 29, and 30 points in their last three contests in the Pacific Northwest.

The Bucs have not covered in a loss this season (0-5 ATS), but Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS mark since last season as a road underdog of four points or more. This total is the highest that Seattle has seen this season, as the Seahawks cashed the OVER in all three opportunities on totals of 50 and higher in 2018. Tampa Bay defeated Seattle in the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2016 as five-point underdogs, 14-5.

Best Bet: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 51 ? Lions at Raiders

Oakland is playing at the Coliseum for the first time since Week 2 as the Raiders spent the last five games on the road. In the middle of this stretch, the Silver and Black traveled to London to face the Bears as Oakland finished UNDER the total in its two true home games to start the season. Although that was a long time ago, the Raiders have hit the OVER in four of the last five contests, but are 2-0 to the UNDER in totals of 50 or higher. The Lions? offense has been hit or miss at time this season, but Detroit scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. In their highest road total at Green Bay, the Lions finished UNDER the total of 47.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bears head to Philadelphia in a playoff rematch with the Eagles as Chicago tries to end a two-game skid. Teams that lose consecutive home games and hit the road are worth a strong look since bettors are normally down of them, as that is the case for Chicago. The Eagles blew out the Bills last Sunday, but Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS this season at Lincoln Financial Field, while failing to cash in seven of their past 10 home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Westgate Superbook released the Broncos as a one-point home favorite against the Browns on October 22, five days before the Week 8 card took place. After the news came down that Broncos? quarterback Joe Flacco will be sidelined and former Arkansas standout Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start, this line flipped significantly. Cleveland is listed as a 4 ?-point favorite even though the Browns own a 2-5 record and have dropped three consecutive games. Denver has lost three games this season by two points each, all on field goals in the final minute.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

The Dolphins are seeking their first win of the season. You probably knew that, but Miami has covered in three consecutive games, as the ?Fins are an underdog once again when the rival Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium. In last season?s two matchups with the Dolphins, Jets? quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times as New York scored 18 points and was swept by Miami. Of course the Dolphins aren?t the same team as last season, but the Jets enter Sunday?s action with a 1-9 record in their past 10 road contests.

 

[Cnotes53]

SNF - Patriots at Ravens
Matt Blunt

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The lock on 'overs' in SNF games this year was finally cracked open last week, as the Packers and Chiefs brought the back-and-forth shootout that everyone would have expected from them at the beginning of the year, even if the home side had an understudy taking the place of their star. It was nice to see two NFL teams make the most of their scoring opportunities and cash in with TD's and not FG tries, as there have been too many teams throughout the league that have played too conservative in that spot and/or have kicking issues to boot.

That makes it two straight weeks with relatively easy winners on SNF for this piece, and as we've arrived at November this week I'm looking to make it three in a row.

This week we've got another great game for the SNF crew, as New England visits a Baltimore Ravens team that's always given them fits for the better part of a decade now. Obviously, Belichick and Brady are still there in New England, but Baltimore's going to look much different this time around for New England as QB Lamar Jackson is about as opposite as it gets in terms of their former QB Joe Flacco.

This should be a great test for a Patriots defense that's gotten heaps of praise in recent weeks for all that they've done this year ? I think I heard that New England would still be something like 6-2 SU if the offense hadn't scored a single point all year ? but context always matters, and is generally forgotten a lot in this industry, and there isn't an offense New England has faced that brings the challenge that Baltimore will bring here. Remember the Ravens have also had two weeks to prepare for this game as well.

With a point spread that will undoubtedly have recreational/public bettors siding with the Patriots and the Ravens being a popular play from the 'sharps', let's get into where your money should be going on Sunday night.

Total Talk

This total opened up at 46 and thanks to about 65% support for the low side, the number has dropped a half-point to stay relatively steady at 45.5 the rest of the way. Given how historically good the Patriots defense has looked in basically every game, you can understand why the 'under' was the first look for the majority, and with Belichick's history of containing and shutting down young QB's by throwing very different looks at them, the 'under' is a reasonable look for sure.

However, I'm not sure many of those young QB's that Patriots teams have owned in the Belichick era have had the dynamic skill set that Lamar Jackson has. His speed can break pretty much any contain their is, and his throwing accuracy (and reads) are getting better and better each week as he's asked to do more in that area. New England will throw some exotic looks at him for sure, and some will likely have some success, but it's not like Baltimore can't adjust to that themselves, and when you've got the best athlete on the field by a wide margin, adjustments just come easier.

At the same time, New England's defense ? while worthy of the praise they've gotten from a statistical standpoint ? the context in who they've played definitely matters. Yes, I know you can only play who's on the schedule in front of you, but in terms of yards gained per game by the offense, New England's faced the 32nd ranked offense (NYJ) twice, the 31st ranked offense (Miami), the 30th ranked offense (Washington), the 28th ranked offense (Pittsburgh), the 24th ranked offense (NYG), the 20th ranked offense (Cleveland) in a weather-affected game, and the 19th ranked offense (Buffalo). There are only 32 teams in the league so that's about as soft as it gets.

Furthermore, only one of those Patriots opponents comes into Week 9 this week averaging more than 20 points per game, and that's Pittsburgh at 21.4 points per contest. The Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins top out at 12.4 points per game (Washington), while the other three teams ? Cleveland, NYG, and Buffalo are all between 19 and 19.8 points per game.

Sure, you could argue that facing New England's defense for at least one of their games contributes to those low numbers, but logic and basic reasoning would tell you that none of those teams are really any good this year (sorry Buffalo fans) at least from an offensive standpoint. That's not the case with Baltimore as they are the only other team ? besides the Patriots ? that averages over 30 points per game this season (30.6) and that number isn't aided by the plethora of defensive/special teams scores (5) New England has put up this year.

And even if you wanted to look at the other side of things and say, ?well Baltimore's numbers are skewed because of the 59 points they put up on Miami? well, they are slightly for sure. But the Ravens have also scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and it's not like New England didn't put up 43 points on Miami themselves.

All that being said, New England has put up 27 or more in all but one of their games ? as they should vs the level of opponent they've faced ? and I do think they approach that number against Baltimore this week. Tom Brady and company can't be thrilled about all this chatter that the defense has carried the Pats to this 8-0 SU record pretty much by their lonesome, and it's not like you can't put up points on this Ravens defense who have already had games where they've allowed 33 and 40 points too.

At home, Baltimore will get theirs too, as this game could end up looking a lot like last week's SNF game where we get two winning teams trading scores and going blow for blow against one another. After all, maybe last week's 'over' result broke the dam on 'overs' happening in these prime time games and that's really the only way I can look here.

Side Spiel

Reading all of that talk about the total would suggest that I believe taking the points with Baltimore would be the side to look at, and in theory that's probably the case. New England is going to be the 'public' side here, and oddsmakers are probably going to need the Ravens ATS and/or SU to snap a lot of parlays and teaser cards from earlier in the day. But the Patriots make a habit of outperforming their numbers and I'm not willing to step in front of that with a number that's hovering around -3.

Now some will tell you that the 'look ahead line' on this game was New England -6.5 and given that New England covered in those nasty conditions last week and Baltimore didn't play, a 'move' like that is something to weigh heavily. But comparing look ahead lines to what's actually posted during the week, and what ends up being the closing number is one of the biggest shams going.

I say that because that line of thought operates under the assumption that look ahead lines are the ?true? or ?correct? line on a game, and movements come based on what happens in games the week prior. That's not true at all, and it's why you see so many big moves relative to those early look ahead lines. Plenty of bettors understand how egregious those look ahead lines can be ? it's why oddsmakers also take smaller limits on them ? and they bet them accordingly. I mean who wouldn't love taking the Ravens at +6.5 right?

That was a bad number and the betting action tells you that. Bettors willing to get out well ahead of the market take advantage of these off-market numbers and then adjust their position accordingly throughout the week when lines settle into place. That doesn't mean that Baltimore is the play now, it means at +6.5 they were well liked by bettors. Nothing more and nothing less. Breaking this game down at the current line of New England -3.5 is a totally different scenario to address outside of what happened in the early markets and it's that concept that ends up getting lost when bettors are discussing what look ahead lines were relative to where they end up going.

And this line of New England -3.5 is arguably right where this line should be in my view, and outside of moving the price tag on the juice for it, chances are it hovers in this range until game time, depending on how much Patriots love comes in from the masses. It's not a play I'd want to touch with either side, but if you are interested in doing something with the side, teasing up the Baltimore Ravens through the key numbers of 7 and even 10 (on a 7-pt teaser) is how I'd look to play it.

Final Thoughts

The side at the current number is not something I'm interested in at all outside of teaser options, but it is the total that does appear to be the better bet. This game has the stench of something like 27-24 written all over it for one of these two teams, although the winner probably needs to hit their average of 30+ points to assure themselves of a victory.

I do expect New England's defense to get ?exposed? a bit in the sense that they've put up all these fantastic defensive numbers against the doldrums of the league offensively ? Baltimore ranks 2nd in yards gained per game with 434.9.

At the same time, Brady and company on that side of the ball for New England make sure to quiet the noise about their unit being well behind their defense. Baltimore's defense can be had through the air ? ranks 26th in passing yards allowed ? and it will be that aerial attack that gives New England a chance.

Hopefully those floodgates on 'overs' cashing a few more times in SNF games the rest of the year did open up after last week's result, as we should get two straight SNF 'overs' cashing when all is said and done this week.

Best Bet: Over 45.5 points

 

[Cnotes53]

Top six picks for Week 9 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1 (929)

5) Buccaneers +6 (1,031)

4) Vikings +2.5 (1,104)

3) Patriots -3 (1,130)

2) Packers -3.5 (1,251)

1) Browns -3 (1,,257)

2019 record: 25-22-1


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Circa Picks - Week 9

Week 9

1) Minnesota +2 (678)

2) Green Bay -3.5 (663)

3) Indianapolis -1 (528)

4) Cleveland -3.5 (525)

5) Jacksonville +1.5 (500)

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
November 1, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The Sunday night game with the Patriots (-3) at Ravens is shaping up to be the largest wagered upon game of the week and it's a daunting cloud hovering above Nevada sportsbooks because it will be the final game posted of the Sunday?s Week 9 NFL action and ignite larger than normal payouts on live parlays and teasers leftover from the first 11 games.

?We?re going to kind of be in the same situation we were in last week with the Patriots against the Browns where the large wagers were on the Browns but the ticket counts were heavy on the Patriots side,? said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso of the Patriots 27-13 win as 10-point favorites.

But the difference this week is the Ravens will be the Patriots biggest challenge this season. It?s certainly the lowest spread posted on them so far this season. The Ravens come in with the No. 1 ranked rushing game (208 ypg) in the NFL and the No. 2 scoring offense (30.6 ppg) average 30.6 ppg behind the Patriots (31.3 ppg).

?We could see the move coming when one of our sharper players took +160 on the Ravens money-line,? DiTommaso said.

CG?s split now has the Patriots -162 and the Ravens +142. The side has run from an early opener of Patriots -4.5 to -3.5 on Monday and then down to 3-flat on Thursday.

But the public doesn?t care what the Patriots spread is, they just want some more of the Belichick-Brady machine that has stayed undefeated and covered six of their eight games. What?s not to like about a Patriots squad that has averaged a 31-6 score through eight games?

William Hill?s sportsbooks across the country have seen 77 percent of their tickets written on the game taking the Patriots while the Ravens have collected 56 percent of the actual cash taken on it.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director says their top public side is the Patriots and their most one-sided sharp wagers have been on the Ravens.

It?s the ultimate public-sharp divide, Pros vs, Joes, or wise-guys vs. squares to the extreme.

If a few of the popular public favorites cover on Sunday, such as the Seahawks (-5 vs. Buccaneers), Packers (-3 at Chargers), Browns (-3.5 at Denver), it will make the Patriots risk go through the roof. As of Friday afternoon, just about every book is lopsided with larger wagers on the Ravens.

The sharp-public divide is also happening in two of those games.

?We took Bucs action at +6 for $30,000 and we?ve also taken some Chargers,? DiTommaso said of respected money plays.

One of the biggest disparities at William Hill is the 2-5 Browns with 95 percent of the action at 2-6 Denver. Apparently, third-year QB Brandon Allen making his first NFL start is a big deal to the public. But did they see Joe Flacco in action for most of the season? There can?t be that much of a drop-off, especially since Allen is far more mobile and the Broncos defense has put them in situations to win almost every week.

CG books posted the Broncos as 1-point favorites in their early lines last week and currently has the lowest number with the Browns -3.5 several books have -4.

?I don?t think there?s that much of a difference between the two,? DiTommaso said. ?The guys in the office and I were talking about Flacco?s worth to the number and we all kind of agreed he was maybe a point or 1.5, but certainly not 4 points.?

DiTommaso adjusted the Browns to -3 on Tuesday despite not agreeing with it because of the market. There?s no reason to go below the most key number in the NFL if everyone else is higher, but it looks like he?s staying on the cheaper side of the market waiting for Browns money to push him.

To clarify, Allen has never thrown a pass in the regular season, but he spent the last two seasons with the Rams and picked up some good habits. As for the defense, they?ve quietly been ranked No. 4 by allowing only 304 ypg. Six of their eight games this season have stayed under and 10 of their last 11 at home have stayed under. The total is a steady 39.

DiTommaso also said he took a large wager on the Bears +5 at Philadelphia and currently has the Eagles -4.5 while other books at Circa and Caesars have the Eagles -4.

Up north at the Atlantis Reno book director Marc Nelson says he?s taken some large respected money on the Redskins (+10 at Buffalo) and his most popular bets made in tickets counts have been the Seahawks, Packers, and surprise-surprise, the Patriots.

It?s going to be a fun week to watch unfold knowing the public is due for a big week. The big public parlay week always happens once or twice a season in the NFL, but hasn?t yet through eight weeks.

 

[Udog]

NFL Week 9 Sunday odds and line moves: Public on Patriots, sharps on Ravens
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 9 features a Pros vs. Joes wagering battle in the Sunday night game. We check in on the action and odds movement for that contest and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

PATRIOTS AT RAVENS ? OPEN: +4; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +3

The last time New England lost, many of us were still buttoning down our holiday shopping. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots are on a 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS spree, with their last loss coming in mid-December. In Week 8, the Pats (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore is atop the AFC North with a 5-2 SU mark, but is the exact opposite with the spread, at 2-5 ATS. The Ravens are on a three-game SU streak and coming off a bye, following an impressive 30-16 victory over Seattle as 3-point road underdogs.

The sharps are on the Ravens and the public is on the Patriots, and Shelton expects the book to be with the wiseguys in this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

?I?m surprised we?re still at Patriots -3. I can?t imagine this closes at 3,? Shelton said, noting his expectation that the line is heading upward. ?But right now, the money is really close. Ticket count is 3.5/1 Patriots. It?s got all day to brew, with parlays and all that. We?re gonna need the Ravens by the night, I?m confident about that.?

PACKERS AT CHARGERS ? OPEN: +3; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +4

Green Bay is solid on the field and against the oddsmakers, sporting marks of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Packers went off as 5-point favorites at Kansas City last Sunday night and withstood a strong charge to win 31-24.

Los Angeles hopes to continue climbing after it halted a 1-5 SU skid in Week 8 (1-4-1 ATS). The Chargers (3-5 SU, 2-4-2 ATS) rallied from a 16-7 third-quarter deficit at Chicago to post a 17-16 victory catching 3.5 points.

?This game is completely one-sided. Sharps and public are piling on the Packers. Ticket count is 15/1, money is 17/1,? Shelton said of pointspread activity, while noting parlays and moneyline parlays also loom large for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. ?Everything in the early games is gonna flow to the Packers. I?d say this is the biggest game of the day, except I can?t say that with the Patriots playing Sunday night.?

VIKINGS AT CHIEFS ? OPEN: -4; MOVE: NONE

It took until Saturday to get a little clarity, but it appears quarterback Patrick Mahomes won?t be on the field for this 1 p.m. ET kick, after Kansas City activated Chad Henne from injured reserve. That said, Mahomes is still listed as questionable as he recovers from a dislocated kneecap suffered in Week 7.

In Week 8, the Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) rode Matt Moore to a respectable Sunday night showing, but they didn?t have enough for Green Bay, losing 31-24 as 5-point home pups. For the moment, Moore would be the starter and Henne the backup today.

Minnesota is rested and ready, coming off the bye week and on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

Due to Mahomes? uncertainty, the line for this game was off the board all week, finally going up Saturday night.

?Not much here, because we hung this so late,? Shelton said. ?The line seems right. We hung 4 and nothing really happened with it. We?ve got a little more money on Minnesota, and ticket count is 2/1 on Minnesota.?

BEARS AT EAGLES ? OPEN: -4.5; MOVE: NONE

Chicago went 12-4 SU and ATS last season, and while it can still match that SU mark, it would have go 9-0 the rest of the way to do so. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) let a 16-7 third-quarter lead slip away against the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 17-16 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.

Philadelphia halted a 2-4 SU and ATS skid with a much-needed Week 8 victory to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) breezed by Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road.

?It?s pretty much all Eagles, all public,? Shelton said of this 1 p.m. ET meeting. ?Ticket count almost 4/1, money 3/1 in favor of the Eagles. Sharps haven?t really gotten involved, and the public doesn?t believe in Mitch Trubisky. It makes sense.?

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Redskins at Bills (-10.5/37), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Case Keenum ruled out due to a suspension, Redskins rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first NFL start. The Ohio State product has gotten into road losses at the Vikings and Giants and is 12-for-22 with four interceptions. A road atmosphere won?t be anything new, but the hope is that he?ll be able adjust better waking up knowing he?s the starter as opposed to being thrust into a contest. In a related story, the Bills defense is set to be the most expensive to own in daily fantasy despite giving up 218 rushing yards in last week?s loss to the Eagles.

Buffalo must prove it can bounce back from its biggest setback of the season after being overwhelmed by Philly and is a double-digit favorite for the second time in three weeks. The Dolphins actually led in a 31-21 loss on Oct. 20, so Buffalo will have to get off to a better start in order to keep Haskins from finding a rhythm. The Bills have been outscored 35-13 in the second and third quarters of their last two games. Provided safety Kurt Coleman plays, the Bills come into this one relatively healthy. The ?Skins have ruled out safeties Deshazor Everett and Montae Nicholson, so they could be vulnerable in the back if Josh Allen manages to hit a receiver in stride. Winds are expected to be around 20 miles per hour in upstate New York.

Titans at Panthers (-3.5/42), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Panthers have only played one home game since their Sept. 12 Thursday night loss to Tampa, having held off the Jaguars late on Oct. 6. As a result, taking the field in Charlotte without Cam Newton is a relatively new experience, so we?ll see how Kyle Allen responds as he attempts to bounce back from his first pro loss. Carolina got rocked 51-13 by San Francisco last weekend in a game where its defense got ran over and Allen was harassed into multiple turnovers, tasting turf seven times after sacks. Tennessee will look to follow up in being disruptive as it attempts to win a third straight Ryan Tannehill start.

Despite missing tight end and team leader Delanie Walker, Tannehill has looked sharp and has been paying off drives in the red zone, showing nice chemistry with tight end Jonnu Smith and young receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. We?ll see if that holds up on the road since this will be the first time he leads the Titans out on the field outside of Nashville. Protecting Tannehill could be an issue if tackle Jack Conklin can?t go. He was downgraded to questionable. Center Ben Jones has already been ruled out, so the opportunity is there for the Panthers to keep the Titans from finding a rhythm. Christian McCaffrey should continue to be featured considering his elite form but Carolina got great news with Curtis Samuel and Jarius Wright both upgraded to ?probable? after overcoming nagging injuries enough to participate.

Bears at Eagles (-4/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Coming off a terrible loss to the Chargers, Chicago hits the road in crisis, in danger of falling two games under .500 at the season?s halfway point despite one of the league?s stingiest defenses. Philly was in a desperate state last week as they took the field against the Bills and it proved to be poised under pressure, rolling to a comfortable win. We?ll see if they can sustain their level of intensity, but it will help that RB Miles Sanders is set to be out there as the change-of-pace back behind Jordan Howard after being questionable earlier in the week. Tackle Jason Peters is out again, and no matter what anyone says about him not being the same guy he was five years ago, missing his experience and his marvelous athleticism even at his age is an obstacle for the Eagles to overcome. Safety Andrew Sendejo (groin) is questionable and DT Tim Jernigan has been cleared to play, so the defense should be up for the challenge of keeping Mitchell Trubisky from finding a rhythm.

The Bears haven?t been able to consistently get any of their weapons off outside of Allen Robinson, who will have a great matchup here given the Eagles? issues in the secondary. The weather will cooperate since winds aren?t expected to be an issue, so Trubisky will have an opportunity to stave off naysayers since Wentz is likely going to set a pace for him to follow. Both Darren Sproles and DeSean Jackson are slated to return for an offense that has missed his contributions, so Wentz will have all of the Eagles? toys at his disposal despite not having Peters out there to create space. Khalil Mack will have help back up front with Bilal Nichols in the mix after overcoming an injury. Safety Eddie Jackson is a go as well despite being hampered by a hamstring issue.

Vikings (-3.5/47) at Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The expectation is that Kansas City will wisely sit Patrick Mahomes, holding him out to heal for at least another week. Matt Moore will try and pick up a victory in what is set to be the Chiefs? fourth home game in five weeks. If they fall as an underdog, they?ll have gone 1-4 in those games. Kansas City faces a long road ahead of it in needing to step up on the road just to make the playoffs, but it?s hard to argue that they face an uphill battle here. Veteran former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and his brain trust will have a strong defensive game plan in place against Moore after Andy Reid put everything he was looking to accomplish on display in attempting to pull off an upset against Green Bay. The ?over? is 5-3 in their games.

Safety Jayvon Kearse is considered questionable after being charged with DWI, but corners Xavier Rhoades and Holton Hill are going to be available in the secondary. Minnesota will look to keep everything in front of them so there could be short throws available to Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and tight end Travis Kelce. The Vikes have upgraded Adam Thielen to probable and will therefore have their entire offense available. Dalvin Cook has been the league?s most productive running back and should have a big day since wind could be a factor at Arrowhead. Kansas City?s defense has had issues containing opposing running backs.

Packers (-4/48.5) at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: I wrote a few weeks ago that it would be foolish to try and fade Aaron Rodgers at the moment and he?s been able to help the Packers overcome the absence of Davante Adams with his brilliance. The expectation is that Adams is returning for this game, so riding Rodgers in Southern California seems like a no-brainer since he?s about to play in front of Green Bay West with Packers? fans set to invade Carson for this game. The Chargers are have WR Keenan Allen in the mix to improve their chances but limited him last week due to a hamstring injury and aren?t likely to over-extend him here.

RB Aaron Jones leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns despite splitting red-zone work with Jamaal Williams of late and dropping a sure touchdown catch on a wheel route a few weeks ago. Rodgers has been able to rely on a running game to help him navigate the absence of Adams and has also seen tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga remain active, the latter playing through a broken finger. L.A. lost safety Derwin James in the preseason and hasn?t been able to adequately replace him. Roderic Teamer is now doubtful due to a groin injury, complicating matters. Top run stuffer Brandon Mebane was hoping to return after missing multiple games but he?s considered doubtful. Justin Jones is dealing with a shoulder issue and is also unlikely to play, while DT Cortez Broughton and safety Nasir Adderley have been ruled out.

 

[bvinnieb]

Question

Question

090

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at KC 01:00 PM
KC +5.5 *****
O 46.0 *****

IND at PIT 01:00 PM
IND +1.0
U 40.0 *****

CHI at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -5.0 *****
U 41.0 *****

NYJ at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +3.0
U 42.5 *****

WAS at BUF 01:00 PM
WAS +10.5 *****
U 37.0

TEN at CAR 01:00 PM
TEN +3.5
U 43.0 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

LATE GAMES

TB at SEA 04:05 PM
SEA -4.0 *****
O 51.0

DET at OAK 04:05 PM
OAK -2.5 *****
U 51.0 *****

GB at LAC 04:25 PM
GB -4.0 *****
O 50.0 *****

CLE at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN +4.0 *****
O 39.5

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

NE at BAL 08:20 PM

NE -3.0 *****

O 44.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 9 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1 (929)- L

5) Buccaneers +6 (1,031)- T

4) Vikings +2.5 (1,104)- L

3) Patriots -3 (1,130)- L

2) Packers -3.5 (1,251)- L

1) Browns -3 (1,,257)- L

2019 record: 25-27-2

njbm k
?I spoke to Coach Taggart this afternoon to let him know of our decision. I met with the team and coaches immediately after that conversation to let them know of the change. It was very important to us that the student-athletes know right away??..I think very highly of Coach Taggart and wish him well, but in the interest of the university we had no choice but to make a change.?
Florida State AD David Coburn, after firing football coach Willie Taggart

Monday?s quiz
Baker Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy playing for Oklahoma; where did he begin his college career?

Sunday?s quiz
Arizona Cardinals? QB Kyler Murray won the Heisman Trophy playing for Oklahoma; he began his college career at Texas A&M.

Saturday?s quiz
Pete Carroll (age 68) is the oldest head coach in the NFL this year.

***************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up Week 9 in the NFL?..

49ers 28, Cardinals 25
? San Francisco won field position by ten yards.
? 49ers converted 11-17 3rd down plays, Arizona 2-8.
? Niners are 8-0, have their first meeting with Seattle next week.

? Cardinals are 18-57 on 3rd down in their losses, 29-63 in wins/tie.
? Before this, Arizona had beaten the 49ers eight games in a row.
? Cardinals are 22-14-1 ATS in last 37 games as a home underdog.

Texans 26, Jaguars 3:
? Season series has now been swept last nine years.
? Houston ran ball for 216 yards, won field position by 11 yards.
? Texans are 14-4 ATS in pre-bye games, winning/covering last five.

? Jaguars are +8 in turnovers in their wins,-10 in losses.
? Jax dropped back to pass 51 times, ran ball only 15 times, un-Jaguar-like.
? Losing side scored 12 of fewer points in last six series games.

Bills 24, Redskins 9:
? Last three games, Washington has no TD?s on 23 drives. None. Zero.
? Redskins converted 12 of last 58 third down plays. No bueno.
? With this loss, QB?s making their NFL debut are 8-1 ATS this year.

? Buffalo?s three first half drives: 31 plays, 159 yards, 17 points.
? Bills are 6-2, visits Browns/Dolphins next two weeks; time to make hay?
? Home teams won all six 1:00 games SU Sunday, which is unusual.

Panthers 30, Titans 20:
? Titans are 4-0 scoring 23+ points, 0-5 when they don?t.
? Tennessee outgained Carolina 431-370, missed FG?s of 42-55-43 yards.
? Titans are 11-22 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog, 1-3 TY.

? Carolina was +2 in turnovers, won field position by 17 yards.
? Panthers won five of six games with Kyle Allen at QB.
? Carolina has converted only 14 of last 54 third down plays.

Eagles 22, Bears 14:
? First half yardage: Eagles 202, Chicago 9.
? Bears are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
? Chicago lost its last four games overall, allowing 24.8 ppg.

? Eagles outgained Chicago 373-164 for the game.
? Philly converted 8-18 third down plays, Bears only 2-10.
? Eagles beat Chicago for 5th time in row, including LY?s playoffs.

Chiefs 26, Vikings 23:
? Vikings had their 4-game winning streak snapped.
? Minnesota went 3/out on six of their 12 drives.
? Vikings lost last trips to Arrowhead, all by 5 or fewer points.

? Butker made 44-yard FG with 2:30 left, a 44-yarder at gun for the win.
? Chiefs scored only two TD?s; one was a 91-yard TD run.
? KC snaps an uncharacteristic 3-game home losing skid.

Dolphins 26, Jets 18:
? Jets drove 75 yards for a TD on first possession, their only TD of the day.
? NYJ has been outscored 110-53 in losing all four road games
? Jets are 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.

? Miami gets its first win of season in eight tries.
? Dolphins outscored last four opponents 48-45 in first half.
? Miami won four in row over the Jets, are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a series underdog.

Steelers 26, Colts 24:
? Vinatieri missed a 42-yard FG with 1:11 left that proved fatal; he also missed a PAT.
? QB Brissett hurt his knee early on; Hoyer was 17-26/168 with three TD?s in relief.
? Colts covered all four of their road games this season.

? Fitzpatrick had a 96-yard pick-6 2:21 before halftime, Steelers? first TD.
? Steelers won four of last five games after an 0-3 start.
? Villanueva recovered a Rudolph fumble in end zone for a safety, saving Pitt five points.

Raiders 31, Lions 24:
? Detroit had ball on Oakland 1-yard line in last minute, couldn?t score.
? Stafford threw for 406 yards in a losing cause.
? Detroit allowed 122 points in last four games; they?ve held only one team (LAC) under 23

? Renfrow caught winning 9-yard TD pass with 2:04 left to play.
? Five of last six Oakland games went over the total.
? There were 16 plays of 20+ yards in this game, three more than any game this week.

Seahawks 40, Buccaneers 34 OT:
? Buccaneers led this game 21-7 late in 2nd quarter.
? Evans caught 12 balls for 180 yards and a TD.
? Tampa Bay scores 32.8 ppg in games with 0 or 1 turnover, 22 ppg in the others.

? Seattle?s last seven drives: 42 plays, 366 yards, 26 points.
? Lockett caught 13 balls for 152 yards and two TD?s.
? Seahawks won five of their last six games; Wilson is the MVP so far.

Broncos 24, Browns 19:
? Browns scored 16 points on five trips to red zone; not good.
? Cleveland gave up TD plays of 21-75-30 yards; Denver had zero snaps in red zone.
? Since 2013, Browns are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.

? Three QB?s named Allen started Sunday; they all won their game.
? QB?s making their NFL debut are 9-1 ATS this season (5-4-1 SU).
? Broncos are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.

Chargers 26, Packers 11:
? Chargers outrushed Green Bay, 159-45.
? Packers on three first half drives: 18 plays, 35 yards, zero points.
? Green Bay had only one play of 20+ yards, least of any team this week.

? Chargers scored on six of first seven drives, missed a FG on 8th drive.
? Badgley made four of five FG?s in his first game this season.
? LA averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt, Packers only 3.7.

Ravens 37, Patriots 20:
? Patriot defense had allowed four TD?s on 96 drives coming in; they allowed four TD?s on eight drives in this game.
? Average total in last four series games is 54.8.
? San Francisco is the last unbeaten team; they play Seattle next week.

? Lamar Jackson is now 12-3 as an NFL starter.
? Baltimore scored a defensive TD with 12:21 left in third quarter to break game open.
? Ravens are 14-4 ATS in last 18 post-bye games, 6-3 in last nine as a home underdog; they?ve scored 23+ points in every game this year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday, November 4, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Dallas Cowboys New York Giants

WEEK 10

Thursday, November 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Chargers Oakland Raiders

Sunday, November 10, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM New York Giants New York Jets
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs Tennessee Titans
4:05 PM Miami Dolphins Indianapolis Colts
4:25 PM Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers
4:25 PM Los Angeles Rams Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 PM Minnesota Vikings Dallas Cowboys

Monday, November 11, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers


***************************


NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals......................5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


*******************************

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 9 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1 (929)- L

5) Buccaneers +6 (1,031)- T

4) Vikings +2.5 (1,104)- L

3) Patriots -3 (1,130)- L

2) Packers -3.5 (1,251)- L

1) Browns -3 (1,,257)- L

2019 record: 25-27-2

njbm k
?I spoke to Coach Taggart this afternoon to let him know of our decision. I met with the team and coaches immediately after that conversation to let them know of the change. It was very important to us that the student-athletes know right away??..I think very highly of Coach Taggart and wish him well, but in the interest of the university we had no choice but to make a change.?
Florida State AD David Coburn, after firing football coach Willie Taggart

Monday?s quiz
Baker Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy playing for Oklahoma; where did he begin his college career?

Sunday?s quiz
Arizona Cardinals? QB Kyler Murray won the Heisman Trophy playing for Oklahoma; he began his college career at Texas A&M.

Saturday?s quiz
Pete Carroll (age 68) is the oldest head coach in the NFL this year.

***************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up Week 9 in the NFL?..

49ers 28, Cardinals 25
? San Francisco won field position by ten yards.
? 49ers converted 11-17 3rd down plays, Arizona 2-8.
? Niners are 8-0, have their first meeting with Seattle next week.

? Cardinals are 18-57 on 3rd down in their losses, 29-63 in wins/tie.
? Before this, Arizona had beaten the 49ers eight games in a row.
? Cardinals are 22-14-1 ATS in last 37 games as a home underdog.

Texans 26, Jaguars 3:
? Season series has now been swept last nine years.
? Houston ran ball for 216 yards, won field position by 11 yards.
? Texans are 14-4 ATS in pre-bye games, winning/covering last five.

? Jaguars are +8 in turnovers in their wins,-10 in losses.
? Jax dropped back to pass 51 times, ran ball only 15 times, un-Jaguar-like.
? Losing side scored 12 of fewer points in last six series games.

Bills 24, Redskins 9:
? Last three games, Washington has no TD?s on 23 drives. None. Zero.
? Redskins converted 12 of last 58 third down plays. No bueno.
? With this loss, QB?s making their NFL debut are 8-1 ATS this year.

? Buffalo?s three first half drives: 31 plays, 159 yards, 17 points.
? Bills are 6-2, visits Browns/Dolphins next two weeks; time to make hay?
? Home teams won all six 1:00 games SU Sunday, which is unusual.

Panthers 30, Titans 20:
? Titans are 4-0 scoring 23+ points, 0-5 when they don?t.
? Tennessee outgained Carolina 431-370, missed FG?s of 42-55-43 yards.
? Titans are 11-22 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog, 1-3 TY.

? Carolina was +2 in turnovers, won field position by 17 yards.
? Panthers won five of six games with Kyle Allen at QB.
? Carolina has converted only 14 of last 54 third down plays.

Eagles 22, Bears 14:
? First half yardage: Eagles 202, Chicago 9.
? Bears are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
? Chicago lost its last four games overall, allowing 24.8 ppg.

? Eagles outgained Chicago 373-164 for the game.
? Philly converted 8-18 third down plays, Bears only 2-10.
? Eagles beat Chicago for 5th time in row, including LY?s playoffs.

Chiefs 26, Vikings 23:
? Vikings had their 4-game winning streak snapped.
? Minnesota went 3/out on six of their 12 drives.
? Vikings lost last trips to Arrowhead, all by 5 or fewer points.

? Butker made 44-yard FG with 2:30 left, a 44-yarder at gun for the win.
? Chiefs scored only two TD?s; one was a 91-yard TD run.
? KC snaps an uncharacteristic 3-game home losing skid.

Dolphins 26, Jets 18:
? Jets drove 75 yards for a TD on first possession, their only TD of the day.
? NYJ has been outscored 110-53 in losing all four road games
? Jets are 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.

? Miami gets its first win of season in eight tries.
? Dolphins outscored last four opponents 48-45 in first half.
? Miami won four in row over the Jets, are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a series underdog.

Steelers 26, Colts 24:
? Vinatieri missed a 42-yard FG with 1:11 left that proved fatal; he also missed a PAT.
? QB Brissett hurt his knee early on; Hoyer was 17-26/168 with three TD?s in relief.
? Colts covered all four of their road games this season.

? Fitzpatrick had a 96-yard pick-6 2:21 before halftime, Steelers? first TD.
? Steelers won four of last five games after an 0-3 start.
? Villanueva recovered a Rudolph fumble in end zone for a safety, saving Pitt five points.

Raiders 31, Lions 24:
? Detroit had ball on Oakland 1-yard line in last minute, couldn?t score.
? Stafford threw for 406 yards in a losing cause.
? Detroit allowed 122 points in last four games; they?ve held only one team (LAC) under 23

? Renfrow caught winning 9-yard TD pass with 2:04 left to play.
? Five of last six Oakland games went over the total.
? There were 16 plays of 20+ yards in this game, three more than any game this week.

Seahawks 40, Buccaneers 34 OT:
? Buccaneers led this game 21-7 late in 2nd quarter.
? Evans caught 12 balls for 180 yards and a TD.
? Tampa Bay scores 32.8 ppg in games with 0 or 1 turnover, 22 ppg in the others.

? Seattle?s last seven drives: 42 plays, 366 yards, 26 points.
? Lockett caught 13 balls for 152 yards and two TD?s.
? Seahawks won five of their last six games; Wilson is the MVP so far.

Broncos 24, Browns 19:
? Browns scored 16 points on five trips to red zone; not good.
? Cleveland gave up TD plays of 21-75-30 yards; Denver had zero snaps in red zone.
? Since 2013, Browns are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.

? Three QB?s named Allen started Sunday; they all won their game.
? QB?s making their NFL debut are 9-1 ATS this season (5-4-1 SU).
? Broncos are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.

Chargers 26, Packers 11:
? Chargers outrushed Green Bay, 159-45.
? Packers on three first half drives: 18 plays, 35 yards, zero points.
? Green Bay had only one play of 20+ yards, least of any team this week.

? Chargers scored on six of first seven drives, missed a FG on 8th drive.
? Badgley made four of five FG?s in his first game this season.
? LA averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt, Packers only 3.7.

Ravens 37, Patriots 20:
? Patriot defense had allowed four TD?s on 96 drives coming in; they allowed four TD?s on eight drives in this game.
? Average total in last four series games is 54.8.
? San Francisco is the last unbeaten team; they play Seattle next week.

? Lamar Jackson is now 12-3 as an NFL starter.
? Baltimore scored a defensive TD with 12:21 left in third quarter to break game open.
? Ravens are 14-4 ATS in last 18 post-bye games, 6-3 in last nine as a home underdog; they?ve scored 23+ points in every game this year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 9 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 6-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 12-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-4

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 82-47-1
Against the Spread 56-72-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 67-62-1
Against the Spread 55-73-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 64-65-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chiefs (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Vikings, 26-23
Broncos (+4, ML +175) vs. Browns, 24-19
Chargers (+4, ML +180) vs. Packers, 26-11
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +165) vs. Jets, 26-18
Ravens (+3, ML +140) vs. Patriots, 37-20

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns (-4) entered the season with a ton of hype, centering around the addition of WR Odell Beckham, while QB Baker Mayfield is frequently seen on commercials, while taking on critics at every turn. There is a lot of attention surrounding the Browns, and a lot of noise, but very few wins on the actualy playing field. The Denver Broncos turned to QB Brandon Allen for his first NFL start with QB Joe Flacco reportedly dealing with a neck injury which will keep him out four to six weeks. It looked like a stroke of luck for a Cleveland team desperately in need of some noise on the field. They didn't get it. It was more of the same...silly penalties and a lack of results in the red zone. Hey, at least they didn't turn the ball over, and won that battle 1-0.

Anyway, the Browns have now dropped four in a row, and they're 0-4 ATS during the span since opening 2-2 SU/ATS. The defense hasn't been up to snuff, allowing 20 or more points in six straight games, and 24 or more in each of the past five. They're now 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, posting just 11.7 PPG and 27.3 PPG allowed during that three-game span on the road.

London Falling

-- The Houston Texans (+1) made their first-ever trip to London in Week 9. They might ask the NFL to make the trip more often, as they throttled the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 26-3 victory at Wembley Stadium, moving to 6-3 SU overall, including 2-0 SU against the Jags. No DE J.J. Watt? No problem. The Texans have posted 23 or more points in each of their past five games, but they snapped a two-game mini-skid against the number. The Jags saw their record slip to 4-5 SU, but they're still a solid 5-3 ATS across the past eight games.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Detroit Lions-Oakland Raiders (51.5), and while things settled down a bit in the third quarter, both QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr were tossing the pill around early and often. Both teams were poor against the pass coming in, and it showed frequently during the game. The second-highest total on the board was also a high-scoring affair.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Seattle Seahawks (51) battle was a seesaw affair with plenty of offense. There were more than 11 points in each quarter, and the game was tied 34-34 before heading to overtime where Seattle ended up with the win.

The other game with a closing total at or over 50 was the Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Chargers (50) game, which closed at exactly 50. The Pack offense never got on track, at least until a late, meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter, as the Chargers defense finally showed up.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Washington Redskins-Buffalo Bills (37) game. Buffalo's offense did their part, posting 24 points, but the defense held the 'Skins and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins to just nine points in his first NFL start. The Redskins have totaled nine or fewer points in five of the past six games, averaging 7.5 PPG. Needless to say, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for the 'Skins during that span.

The Cleveland Browns-Denver Broncos (39) game was the second-lowest on the big board, mainly due to the presence of Allen under center, and Denver's re-emerging defense. They scored 24, and the total inched over the mark with a late Cleveland touchdown. The only other game with a total under 40 was Indianapolis Colts-Pittsburgh Steelers (39.5). The Colts lost QB Jacoby Brissett early in the game to a knee injury, but veteran backup QB Brian Hoyer more than held his own, tossing three touchdowns. The Colts fell 26-24, but the game went well 'over'.

-- The 'over' hit in the first two primetime games of Week 9, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants (48) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 8-19 (29.6%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is likely to be sidelined for some game time due to what is believed to be a sprained medial collateral ligament.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) aggravated his hamstring injury and was forced back to the sldelines.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- The Chargers and Raiders square off on Thursday night in what is expected to be the final primetime game at 'The Black Hole' before they move to Las Vegas. The Bolts are 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on Thursday, and they're 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 games on the road while going 8-1 ATS in the past nine in the month of November. That includes their 26-11 win over the Packers in Week 9. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their past seven at home, however, including their Week 9 win against the Lions. The Bolts might be sad to see the Raiders leaving Oakland, as they're 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to the East Bay.

-- The Ravens are coming off an emotional win against the previously unbeaten Patriots, now they have to face the winless Bengals. Will there be a dropoff in intensity and focus? The Bengals are starting QB Ryan Finley, using the bye week to prep him for his first NFL start. The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their past seven inside the division, and 0-6 ATS in the past six against losing teams. While the Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their past nine home games, they have covered eight of the past 11 against divisional foes. Baltimore hasn't covered in four straight meetings, and they're 4-10 ATS in the past 14 trips to Paul Brown Stadium. Of course, the Bengals haven't been this bad before.

-- The Lions and Bears square off in Chicago in a tale of two teams. The Lions are a pass-happy offense which cannot stop anyone defensively. The Bears are a defensive-minded side who cannot pass against anyone. Some might find it curious then that the Bears opened as three-point favorites. well, Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five home meetings with the Lions. The 'under' is also 5-2 in the past seven at Soldier Field between these combatants.

-- The lowly Falcons are back from their bye week, and they're facing a Saints team which is also coming off a rest. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in the past seven following a bye, but just 5-17 ATS in the past 22 on the road and 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall. New Orleans has covered six in a row, and they're 10-2 ATS in the past 12 following a bye week while cashing in 17 of the past 25 inside the division while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight against losing teams. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight trips to NOLA.

-- The fifth and final divisional battle will take place on Monday in a highly anticipated game between the Seahawks and unbeaten 49ers, the last unbeaten in the NFL. How many people had that prediction? The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 on the road, while going 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings on Monday Night Football. The 49ers blasted the Browns earlier this season on MNF, and they're 27-7 ATS in their past 34 appearances on MNF. The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 in this series, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to San Francisco, but these 49ers are a completely different animal, and it's a good idea to ignore those trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Close Calls - Week 9
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won?t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 9 of the NFL regular season.

Every home team covered in Week 9 heading into Monday night but not without late drama in several games.

San Francisco 49ers (-10) 28, Arizona Cardinals 25 (43?): While Arizona put up a decent fight they allowed a score on the final play of the first half to fall behind 21-7. Scoring a few minutes out of the break kept the Cardinals in the game but San Francisco answered three minutes later to lead 28-14 heading into the fourth quarter. In the final frame a long Cardinals drive resulted in a field goal to trim the margin to 11, with the decision to kick due to facing 4th-and-13. That wasn?t going to be quite enough for the underdog on a spread that leaped from +7 all the way to +10. The Arizona defense held and Kyler Murray and Andy Isabella connected for 88 yards to put the Cardinals back in play for the upset. The-two-point conversion was good and it was a 3-point margin. San Francisco converted three third downs including one that was upheld on a challenge to melt the remaining clock, moving to 8-0.

Buffalo Bills (-10?) 24, Washington Redskins 9 (37): A rout seemed possible with a quick 10-0 lead for the Bills in the first quarter. Washington managed a second quarter field goal but a strong Bills kickoff return followed and it was 17-3. Washington got three more before the break to trail by 11, right near the closing spread. A productive Bills drive out of halftime was stopped on 4th-and-1 and eventually Washington added three more to trail by just eight with a spread that was as low as +9? before climbing back up. Four consecutive punts kept the scoring in check and aided the ?under? before the Bills inherited great field position with about six minutes remaining. The play of the game relative to the spread was Buffalo facing 3rd-and-18 in deep field goal range. An incomplete pass and Buffalo likely punts to pin Washington back but Josh Allen connected with John Brown for 23 yards. Still ahead of the two-minute warning Buffalo wasn?t going to be able to run out the clock and eventually added a Devin Singletary touchdown to flip the spread result with just 2:21 to go. Dwayne Haskins got the Redskins near midfield before falling short on 4th-and-4 in a mediocre but perhaps slightly better than some expected performance in his first NFL start against a quality defense on the road.

Carolina Panthers (-3) 30, Tennessee Titans 20 (43): After a scoreless first quarter the Panthers scored 17 in the second and led 24-7 through three quarters. The Titans completed a 94-yard drive early in the fourth but allowed a 58-yard run to Christian McCaffrey a few minutes later to stay down by 16 as a slight underdog, though the spread was +3? or higher much of the week. Ryan Tannehill was intercepted on Tennessee?s next drive in Carolina territory but the Panthers would miss a field goal to keep the Titans in the game. With fewer than three minutes remaining Tennessee found the end zone but didn?t get the conversion to trail by 10, leaving the door open for a spread-spoiling touchdown if they got the ball back. Only 20 seconds came off the clock on Carolina?s 3-and-out with Tennessee only needing to burn two timeouts thanks to a 2nd down pass call from the Panthers. The Titans went down the field quickly but had to waste a down to stop the clock with just over a minute remaining on 3rd down and opted for a field goal on 4th-and-3 to the relief of those on the Panthers. The kick was ultimately missed anyway but the 19-point fourth quarter did clear the total ?over?.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 22, Chicago Bears 14 (41): The Eagles dominated the first half in this playoff rematch as in a week where Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense came under great scrutiny, the offense had negative total production five drives into the game and didn?t pick up a first down until the final minute of the first half. Philadelphia extended a 12-0 halftime lead to 19-0 going 84 yards after halftime but Chicago would score touchdowns on two of its next three drives to trail by five, even with a common spread on the game. A pair of punts followed before a great Carson Wentz drive, burning more than eight minutes of clock in a 16-play effort that resulted in a field goal in the final minute of the game to give the Eagles the clear win and cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (+5?) 26, Minnesota Vikings 23 (46): The line on this game was not commonly available until the weekend and with Patrick Mahomes ruled out the road favorite price kept climbing. A 10-10 tie at halftime was broken with a short-field Vikings touchdown following a Chiefs fumble on the kickoff after the break. Minnesota missed the PAT however and that allowed the Chiefs to lead by one after Damien Williams broke a 91-yard run late in the third quarter. The Chiefs added a field goal to lead by four but Minnesota went in front by three early in the fourth. The Vikings weren?t able to hold on defense however even with a huge 3rd-and-13 sack to push Harrison Butker?s tying field goal attempt to 54 yards. Still ahead of the two-minute warning Kirk Cousins went backwards on Minnesota?s chance for a go-ahead drive. A terrible punt followed as special teams issues continue to haunt Mike Zimmer with the Chiefs starting at Minnesota?s 45-yard-line. A sack on 1st down gave Minnesota a chance to get to overtime but Matt Moore connected for two solid gains and Butker was good from 44 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) 26, Indianapolis Colts 24 (39?): A common fallacy is assuming a near-even line won?t come into play but the difference between +1 and -1 looked significant in the Colts/Steelers game much of the way with either option available on either team depending on the timing. The scoring got off a normal trajectory as Pittsburgh recovered its own fumble in the end zone late in the third quarter to take a safety instead of allowing a touchdown, trimming a 20-16 lead to 20-18. The Colts would fumble the kickoff to botch an opportunity to have good field position and despite gaining only four yards, the Steelers added three points to lead by five. With Brian Hoyer at quarterback most of the game the Colts were in the red zone midway through the third but faced a decision on 4th-and-2. Hoyer connected for the touchdown but the Colts didn?t get the two-point try as the lead was one. A big defensive pass interference call withstood review but from 1st-and-goal the Steelers had to settle for a short kick to go back in front by two with still six minutes to go. Punts were exchanged before Hoyer and the Colts got the ball back with 2:28 to go from their own 15. Pass interference would again be the central conversation with Indianapolis gaining 35 yards on a call that withstood review. Pittsburgh would also challenge for offensive pass interference later in the drive but with no change of course. Indianapolis reached field goal range but lost three yards on 3rd-and-1 with just over a minute to go. Adam Vinatieri would miss in another high profile spot from 43 yards as Pittsburgh escaped with the win.

Oakland Raiders (-3) 31, Detroit Lions 24 (51?): While both teams moved the ball well, the scoring stalled in the third quarter as the Lions settled for a short field goal to tie the game 17-17. Off-setting penalties offset a potential 3rd down stop for the Lions early in the fourth quarter and on the re-play Oakland went up 24-17. After a series of punts the Lions took advantage of good field position to tie the game with just over five minutes remaining. Oakland quickly earned 1st-and-goal as the two-minute warning approached but on 3rd-and-9 Oakland connected to go back up by seven. The Lions got two chunks of yardage on penalties but in the final minute Matthew Stafford took a sack from the 4-yard-line. Facing 3rd-and-goal from the 14, Detroit got 13 yards and Oakland held on the final play with an incomplete pass on a jump ball off play-action, with Lions fans certainly having a valid case that the defender?s contact was early.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 40, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (50?): +6 and even briefly +6? was available early in the week on the Buccaneers. It didn?t seem to matter with a 21-7 early lead for the road underdog. Halfway through the third quarter Seattle connected for a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie the game. Matching field goals followed to make it 24-24 early in the fourth before both teams had fumbles. Taking advantage of great field position Seattle took its first lead of the game with eight minutes to go on a short field goal. The Buccaneers were able to tie the game with five minutes to go. It took only three plays for Seattle to answer, hitting a 53-yard touchdown to pass up the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Jameis Winston converted a 4th down at the two-minute warning and then put Tampa Bay into the end zone in the final minute. With still 46 seconds to go, Tampa Bay kicked the PAT to tie the game. To no one?s surprise Russell Wilson was able to get the Seahawks in position to win but Jason Myers missed from 40 yards, setting up the nightmare scenario to come for Buccaneers backers. Seattle won the toss and an exhausted Buccaneers defense was picked apart. An illegal contract call gave Seattle a big first down to get into field goal range and on 3rd-and-6 the Seahawks struck for 29 yards, inevitably getting into the end zone two plays later for the win and the undeserved favorite cover for most.

Denver Broncos (+4) 24, Cleveland Browns 19 (39): Before Joe Flacco was ruled out, the Broncos were a slight favorite in this game but were +3 to +4 with Brandon Allen set for his first NFL action. Allen played well and led the Broncos to a 17-12 lead at halftime, with Denver?s defense holding Cleveland to four field goals. A Phillip Linsday run put Denver up by 12 late in the third quarter but the Browns got back within five early in the fourth. Cleveland forced a punt and had the ball back with still more than seven minutes to go. A signature drive was possible for Baker Mayfield in what has been a difficult season. The Browns reached 3rd-and-1 at the Denver 25 and kept the ball out of Mayfield?s hands with a rush from Nick Chubb losing three yards. Mayfield fell incomplete on 4th down as the Broncos held on to surpass the Browns in the ACC standings.

 

[Cnotes53]

MNF - Cowboys at Giants
November 4, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Dallas (-6.5, 48.5) at N.Y. Giants, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Even though the Packers were inexplicably shut down in Carson by the Chargers and the Vikings couldn?t defeat the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs at Arrowhead, the NFC is top-heavy enough where the Cowboys look to have no shot at a playoff berth unless they handle business in winning the ugly NFC East.

Dallas (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won its first three games in the division and will be wrapping up its season series with New York (2-6, 3-5) here before finishing up 2019 with a visit to Philly and a home date with Washington in weeks 16 and 17. The Eagles took down the Bears on Sunday and have won consecutive games against two of the NFL?s top defenses after winning in Buffalo on Oct. 27, but they?ll be hosting New England and Seattle after next week?s bye and may be multiple games behind Dallas when it visits on Dec. 22.

The Cowboys hope that ends up being the case and can only take care of what they can handle, which starts with this must-win on Monday night.

How does a Week 9 fall into that category without feeling hyperbolic? Well, when your next six games feature stops in Detroit, New England, Chicago and that Week 16 visit to Philly and your only other home dates see the Bills and Rams come into town, you quickly realize that this is going to be the easiest matchup you have until the final contest of the season. Dallas rolled past the Eli Manning-led Giants 35-17 in Week 1 as a 7-point favorite and are again in that neighborhood from a point spread standpoint as it makes its annual visit to Met Life Stadium.

Win, and the Cowboys can head into Sunday?s home game against a motivated Vikings? squad with some cushion. If they suffer an upset, a season where they were lumped in with six other NFC teams as top contenders to reach the Super Bowl could go off the rails and Jason Garrett?s already-hot seat will intensify to full out scalding proportions. After all, the Giants didn?t even hold a single lead in October. Pulling off an upset here would be tough for Dallas to overcome.

So, yes, it?s a must-win. The Cowboys can?t afford to lose to Giants rookie Daniel Jones, who comes off his most prolific offensive outing but hasn?t experienced much success since winning his first two starts. New York has dropped four consecutive games after having its comeback bid cut short in a 31-26 loss in Detroit on Oct. 26. Jones threw for four touchdowns, two to fellow rookie Darius Slayton, but couldn?t overcome his defense getting carved up by Lions QB Matthew Stafford.

The Giants need to win if they?re going to have any chance at playing meaningful football games over the season?s final two months since dropping this home game would leave them an insurmountable 3.5 games behind the Cowboys in the division. Pulling off an upset would leave them just two back of the Eagles, who would take a half-game lead into Week 10 despite being blown out in Dallas the last time we saw the ?Boys on the field. New York will face Philadelphia twice in December.

Dallas snapped a three-game losing streak that featured an inexplicable loss to the awful Jets by dominating Philly 37-10 on Oct. 20. The Cowboys obliterated their top division rival that Sunday night, going up 14-0 in just over six minutes and ultimately building a 27-7 halftime lead. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 111 yards, Amari Cooper had a 100-yard receiving day and QB Dak Prescott threw for a score and ran for another in a dominant performance that helped ease concerns over suffering through another wasted season under Garrett, who has only reached the playoffs in three of his first eight seasons and has failed to make back-to-back appearances. It?s hard to imagine him keeping his gig if that string continues.

Garrett has been able to take advantage of the Giants over the past few seasons, so this is definitely the right matchup for him looking to sustain momentum coming off a bye week. Dallas has beaten New York five straight times, and a sixth would tie the second-longest win streak in this divisional rivalry, halfway to the all-time record of 12 notched from 1974-80. Check out the recent series results below.

With Jones getting the start, this will mark the first time the Cowboys don?t see a Giants team led by Eli Manning since facing Kurt Warner back in ?04 with Manning serving an apprenticeship in his rookie season. Jones was supposed to be simply watching if all had gone according to plan, but he quickly became New York?s best chance to win now due to his athleticism behind a porous offensive line that the less mobile Manning had no chance of remaining upright behind. As things stand, Jones has been sacked 21 times and has accounted for 16 turnovers, so the baptism by fire has indeed featured plenty of flames.

Miscues have hindered him in every one of his last five starts after a clean outing in a 32-31 win at Tampa Bay. Last week?s loss in Detroit featured him trying to get rid of a ball after failing to recognize a blitz and Jones ultimately threw the ball backward, where it was scooped up and ran in for a touchdown by Lions? LB Devon Kennard. Jones has to avoid putting his team in a bind to truly take a step forward. Fumbling has been a major issue for the Giants, who will need to play a much cleaner game in order to produce an upset.

This matchup features two of the NFL?s top running backs in Dallas? Elliott and New York?s Saquon Barkley, who ran for 120 yards against the Cowboys in Week 1. While New York will be relying on Barkley to help move the chains and emerge as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield, expect Dallas to use Elliott as a way to soften up the Giants defense before going for the throat via the pass, which is where New York has been most vulnerable. The secondary has been lit up more often than not as opposing receivers have dominated, a trend which began immediately as Prescott threw for over 400 yards to open the season, finding Michael Gallup for 158 in addition to establishing a connection with Cooper.

The high side is a popular pick as a result since the Giants have seen the ?over? come in two of the past three weeks and they?ve given up 27 or more points in all but one of their outings on the season. A cloudy and cool day in the tri-state area should feature no rain, so expect clear conditions and temperatures in the high 40?s for this evening kickoff.

TOTAL TALK
Dallas enters this game with a 4-3 record to the ?over? while New York has watched its first eight games produce a stalemate (4-4) for bettors.

Despite the back-and-forth results, the total for this divisional matchup opened at 48 and the number has held steady as of Monday morning. Dallas hasn?t played since Week 7 and Chris David of VegasInsider.com dug up a solid total angle to watch based on the bye for the ?Boys.

?The Cowboys will be playing with rest for this matchup and they?ve had some strong total tendencies off the bye under head coach Jason Garrett. In their last 10 regular season games with rest, Dallas has watched the ?over? go 9-1,? David said. ?During this span the Cowboys have played three divisional opponents and they averaged 25 PPG in those contests, two of them coming versus the Giants. The Dallas team total is listed at 27 ? for this contest and based on what we?ve seen from New York defensively, I believe the Cowboys will surpass that number.?

Bettors should note that Dallas has gone 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games off the bye, which includes a 3-3 record on the road.

?New York has been listed as a home underdog twice this season and it allowed 28 points in both those games to the Vikings and Bills,? added David. ?We?ve seen the Cowboys come out flat in their three losses this season but what you can?t knock them for is their production in divisional games. Going back to the 2017, Dallas has gone 13-2 both SU and ATS versus NFC East foes and that includes a 3-0 record this season behind an offense scoring 35, 31 and 37 points.?

LINE MOVEMENT
Dallas Cowboys
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 8/5 to 4/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 10/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 20/1

New York Giants
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +105, Under -125)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 16/1 to 100/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 100/1 to 1000/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 200/1 to 2000/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE
Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"We opened this one at -6.5 because we felt as a divisional road game that a full -7 was a bit high. Then we went all the way up to -7.5 and all the way back down to -6. There?s been lots of interest," said Berg, whose valuable observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "It?s been pretty well balanced, but we?ll need the Giants when it comes to parlays."

INJURY CONCERNS
The Cowboys are unlikely to have pass rusher Leighton Vander Esch due to a neck injury. The absent linebacker?s impact may at least be mitigated by Michael Bennett?s debut as the defensive end is expected to debut. Corner Anthony Brown is questionable and backup tackle Cameron Fleming has been ruled out, but Dallas is otherwise extremely healthy, perhaps more so than at any other point in the season. Tackles Tyron Smith and La?el Collins have both been limited but should play, as will guard Zack Martin. DEs Robert Quinn and Dorance Armstrong are both up to play and Sean Lee, set to play a lot with Vander Esch likely out, is expected to participate since missing a practice on Saturday wasn?t injury-related.

New York WR Sterling Shepard is out with a concussion, so look for Slayton, Golden Tate and tight end Evan Engram to continue being featured in New York?s pass offense. DL Leonard Williams, acquired from the Jets earlier this week, is expected to go. Corner Corey Ballantine did make it out of concussion protocol, but the Giants won?t have rookie LB Ryan Connelly, who tore his ACL after making three starts in his four appearances.

RECENT MEETINGS
(Cowboys 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS last 13, OVER 8-5)
9/8/19 Cowboys 35-17 vs. Giants (DAL -7, 44)
12/30/18 Cowboys 36-35 vs. Giants (DAL +7.5, 38.5)
9/16/18 Cowboys 20-13 at Giants (DAL -3, 42)
12/10/17 Cowboys 30-10 at Giants (DAL -4, 42)
9/10/17 Cowboys 19-3 at Giants (DAL -6, 46.5)
12/11/16 Giants 10-7 vs. Cowboys (NYG +3.5, 47)
9/11/16 Giants 20-19 vs. Cowboys (NYG +1, 47.5)
10/25/15 Giants 27-20 at Cowboys (NYG -3, 45)
9/13/15 Cowboys 27-26 at Giants (NYG +6, 51.5)
11/23/14 Cowboys 31-28 at Giants (NYG +5, 49)
10/19/14 Cowboys 31-21 vs. Giants (DAL -5.5, 47)
11/24/13 Cowboys 24-21 at Giants (DAL +2.5, 44.5)
9/8/13 Cowboys 36-31 vs. Giants (DAL -3.5, 49.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 10 currently has the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota in a huge NFC game. The Giants will stay in town to play a ?road? game against the New York Jets. The Giants are an early 2.5-point favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 10
November 4, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of November 4th

Admittedly it was nice to take a minor step back from the chaos that is football season the past two weeks with looks at what was going on in the MLB and NBA. Last week's piece dealt with the two teams that squared off in the NBA Finals last year and discussed how both the Warriors and Raptors will likely be great long term fades this year.

Since that piece went up, Toronto's posted a 2-1 record both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), while the Warriors went 1-3 SU and ATS. Not exactly the best results, but not exactly the worst results either on a blind theory that can be continually used and considered for the next few months.

Today it's back to the football field though, as the NFL dominates this industry and that's where people want to ingest their information. And while it would be easy to include the fact that home teams on US soil have gone a perfect 12-0 ATS in Week 9, that's not where I'm going at all. That's not really actionable information going forward in my view, and you've got to trust the Giants to continue that run tonight on MNF. Not something I'm interested in.

Instead, it's a look at a couple of trends that should at least be considered for a few games over the next two weeks in the NFL, as it deals with teams in the following game after a trip to London. There is always a lot of chatter about theories for what to take for those London games, but never much about the return trip home. Hopefully these streaks can help you break down those return games a little better.

Who's Hot

Taking 'overs' for NFL teams in their first game back after a London game: 8-2 O/U last two years; including 4-0 O/U this season.
Taking 'overs' in London games tends to be a popular refrain, but it's actually the following game for these teams that is the better time to look that way. The 'over' is 8-2 in post-London games the past two years, with the average total points being scored clocking in at 53.9 points per game. Not one of those games has finished with fewer than 42 points in that span, and if you are looking for team totals, the post-London team averages 24 PPG themselves in this role. In eight of those 10 games they've put up at least 23 points as well.

You can break it down even further in terms of being home or away in these post-London games as well, with teams at home going a perfect 3-0 O/U the past two years, and road sides going 5-2 O/U. In Week 10 we've got one team that fits each scenario, as the Cincinnati Bengals are at home hosting a Ravens team that's coming off a huge SNF win over New England, while the Los Angeles Rams are out on the road visiting Pittsburgh. And we can't leave out in Week 11 that Houston's on the road in Baltimore, while Jacksonville's on the road against Indianapolis. So we might see a few more Ravens game sail 'over' the number in the coming weeks like last night's win over the Patriots did.

In terms of finding tangible reasons why these 'overs' after a London game are coming in, the most obvious would be that these teams are rested and prepared as they are coming off a bye in every instance.

Having two weeks to prepare for a team in the NFL is a distinct advantage as long as coaching staffs and players make the most of their time, and generally speaking it will show up on the offensive end. After all, the name of the game is to score more points then the other guy, so you might as well spend more of your prep time trying to do that.

In terms of this year's numbers alone, three of the four teams coming off a London game have seen their next contests finish with 60+ points, and only the Carolina Panthers managed to put up fewer then 23 points themselves. However, even with these high point totals and teams scoring 24 points per game on average, that doesn't necessary equate to SU or ATS wins the following game as...

Who's Not

NFL teams in a post-London game are 3-6-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons; 0-3 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS in 2019
This was the more surprising part of the findings when backtracking this stuff, as you would think a post-bye scenario would lead to teams putting up more wins they they are. The fact that not one of these post-London teams has come close to covering the spread this year was very surprising, but still not as bad as the fact that three of the four of them had lost that following game by double-digits. Chicago got smoked at home by New Orleans (36-25), Oakland got smoked by Green Bay (42-24), and Carolina got smoked by San Francisco (51-13). If that pattern holds true in Week 10, you've got to figure that Cincinnati Bengals fans should probably get into the hard liquor rather early next Sunday with Baltimore coming to town.

Furthermore, if you take the push out of the equation (Jacksonville's 29-26 loss @ Indianapolis last year as +3 road dogs), all the other nine games are correlated in that the point spread hasn't mattered. Pick the SU winner and the ATS victory follows, and all three of the SU and ATS winners closed as either pick'em or underdogs ? Seattle at (+3) in Detroit in Week 8 of 2018, LA Chargers at (pk) in Seattle in Week 9 of 2018, and Tennessee (+4.5) at Dallas in Week 9 of 2018 as well.

Only the Bengals are underdogs this week and it's tough to see them winning SU vs Baltimore, especially when all three of those previous winners were out on the road. That's where the Rams find themselves this week, but they are currently laying chalk (-4), but keep this in mind for Week 11 when the Jaguars and Texans are both out on the road and likely both catching points against Indy and Baltimore respectively.

Do with this information what you will, but don't be surprised if these four post-London games over the next two weeks have some points being put up.

 

[Cnotes53]

Bolts, Ravens carry books to win
November 4, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The Dolphins notched their first victory of the season and the Patriots were tagged with their first loss, but the story on Sunday?s Week 9 NFL action for Nevada sportsbooks was and why they won again was the Packers laying an egg in front of thousands of cheese-heads in Carson, California against the Chargers.

?It was a really good day,? said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. ?The Packers game turned out to be one of our best games of the season. Half of our win on the day was the result of the Packers losing. We had a six-figure wager on the Packers and also had them involved in a six-figure teaser, in addition to being one of the more popular teams this weekend on parlays.?

The Chargers 26-11 win as 4.5-point home favorites paid out +195 on the money-line at MGM properties and sent the Packers to only their second loss of the season and dropped them to 6-3 against-the-spread. The actual score isn?t as indicative of how bad the Packers were beaten with quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing for only 161 of their 185 total net yards.

Between the Chargers having no home-field advantage and the then 7-1 Packers looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, bettors had no problem laying down cash against the then 3-5 Chargers. It was one of the most popular parlay games of the week so when they went down it killed the majority of carryover risk into the Sunday night game which was one of the most bet games of the season, and, of course, the majority was riding with the undefeated Patriots.

?The Sunday night game was the most tickets we have written on any game this season,? Stoneback said. ?The public was all over the Patriots today (Sunday), so we?re rooting for the Ravens tonight.?

The Ravens rolled to a 37-20 win as three-point home underdogs, a spread that was the lowest of the season against any of the Patriots eight previous opponents. The Ravens jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back while their No. 1 rushing team went above their season average (204 ypg) and rambled for 210 yards. The Ravens money-line paid out at +146 at Circa Sportsbooks.

There was a definite sense of awakening as to who the Patriots really are after getting beaten so badly because their 8-0 record came against bad teams such as the Dolphins, Jets twice, Redskins, and Browns. They covered the spread in six of those games which is why the public came out full force on them in Week 9.

?We had so much or our parlay and teaser risk eliminated by key teams in the afternoon (Packers loss) that we don?t have a lot of carryover risk into the Sunday night game,? CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso said. ?I don?t remember the last time I was able to put in a projected risk score with Patriots and over on a Sunday night game and show it as a winner for us.?

CG Books took a few large wagers on the Ravens early in the week to drop from Patriots -4 down t -3, but they still won at a high margin on the day despite those bets. Packers to Patriots parlays and Packers to Patriots teasers all went down the drain for the majority of casual bettors.

?It was a good day,? said William Hill?s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. ?By far the Packers were our best. The Seahawks and Bills ended up being the worst.?

The Seahawks were a popular public play despite their home game against the Buccaneers watching the spread drop from -6.5 to -4 with respected money taking the Bucs earlier in the week. The Bucs jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter, but QB Russell Wilson showed once against why he may be the most underrated signal caller in the league as he brought the Seahawks back to a 40-34 overtime win, which covered the spread for most who bet the game over the weekend. The Seahawks now move to 7-2 and improved to 4-4-1 ATS.

The Dolphins 26-18 home win over the Jets (-3) also helped most books because the general consensus was that the Jets were a much better team despite only having one win themselves. But in hindsight, you could see momentum building with the Dolphins behind Ryan Fitzpatrick who has covered the last four games he?s played. The spread always catches up to teams in the NFL.

The Dolphins win helped slow any parlay and teaser momentum on the day and was aided more by the afternoon wins by the Packers and the Broncos.

The story of the Broncos 24-19 home win against the Browns (-4) was comical in the sense that former starting QB Joe Flacco bashed the coaches play calling to the press following their 15-13 loss at Indianapolis last week. Rather than trade words in the papers, the Broncos instead announced Flacco was out 4-to-6 weeks with a neck injury. Classic. They just said, "you're injured."

Instead of watching another week of Flacco being immobile, fumbling, and missing receivers, they decided to give back-up Brandon Allen a shot at running the show despite the fact he had never thrown a regular-season pass in the NFL. All Allen would do was throw for 193 yards passing and two TD passes, but most important was not turning the ball over. He gave his No. 4 ranked defense a chance to win, and despite the Browns not turning the ball over, it was the Broncos defense that made the big stands they had to.

The interesting part about Week 9 was that all 11 home teams won outright, five of them underdogs. Including the neutral site game in a London, a 26-3 Texans win against the Jaguars, favorites went 6-6 ATS and the over was 8-4.

Back to the drawing board for bettors, and I know I sound like a broken record the last four weeks, but their day of the favorites cashing in by a large majority is coming soon. It always does.

 

[Cnotes53]

Do Baker, Browns stay patient w/ Kitchens?
November 4, 2019
By The Associated Press

Given all of the talent they've assembled - Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward - it'll be fascinating to see whether the Cleveland Browns are just as patient with apparently in-over-his-head Freddie Kitchens as they were with undoubtedly in-over-his-head Hue Jackson.

Because as accustomed to losses, and lost seasons, as the Browns themselves, not to mention even the most loyal Clevelanders, must be by now, the manner in which this edition of the team is falling apart must be alarming.

A 24-19 defeat against the lowly Denver Broncos and an unknown 27-year-old quarterback who never before had thrown a pass in the NFL, Brandon Allen, on Sunday was evidence enough of where things stand for a Browns team that has dropped four games in a row and fell to 2-6 after being a popular preseason pick to win the AFC North.

The offense kept stalling in the red zone. Two failed attempts on fourth down hurt, too, including a last-ditch try on which Mayfield threw incomplete to a double-covered Landry down the middle instead of a seemingly open Beckham on the sideline. The defense allowed Allen to toss a pair of TD passes, including one that went 75 yards, and gave up a 30-yard score on the ground.

Bad as it is on the field for Kitchens and Co. - not quite as bad as the 1-31 disaster Jackson oversaw not too long ago, but bad enough - the off-field circus is in town, too.

Beckham complained after the game that he'd been forced to switch out of his pair of clown-design cleats at halftime; Landry also had a shoe issue.

On Monday, the team cut safety Jermaine Whitehead , who was chastised by the Browns for what they called his ''totally unacceptable and highly inappropriate'' posts on social media after the game.

Plus, Beckham - talented as can be, yes, but there's always something with him - reportedly said something as he left the field about not getting the ball enough.

''He's frustrated 'cause we're losing,'' Mayfield said. ''We all are.''

Otherwise, there was a lot of talk about ''singular focus'' from Mayfield, while Kitchens' big insight was that his players ''just got to execute better.''

Kitchens, who began last season as the team's running backs coach, was asked about his job security.

''It really doesn't concern me. It's not my decision,'' he replied. ''And I've never worried about it before, and I won't worry about it now and I won't worry about it in the future. I'll just do the best job I can do.''

In case you missed it, here are other top topics after the NFL season's ninth Sunday:

PATRIOTS TAKE AN ''L'' AND FINS GET A WIN

Bill Belichick's New England Patriots are no longer unbeaten, losing 37-20 to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens at night to drop to 8-1 heading to their bye week.

Jackson threw for one TD and ran for two others - dragged across the front of the end zone by lineman Orlando Brown Jr. for the last - against a New England team that had been allowing 7.6 points per game.

''We've all got to do a better job,'' Belichick said. ''That includes everybody. Period.''

At the other end of the spectrum, Belichick's former assistant Brian Flores won a game as an NFL head coach for the first time: The Miami Dolphins, um, "improved" to 1-7 by beating the New York Jets 26-18.

Now the San Francisco 49ers are the last unbeaten team, and the Cincinnati Bengals are the only winless club.

All in all, it was a rough day to be on the road: Miami, like Baltimore, played at home, and teams hosting games in the U.S. on Sunday went 11-0 (the day's other game was in London).

UNION VS. NETWORK

In a statement of support for Washington Redskins left tackle Trent Williams, who has held out this season, the players' union accused the NFL Network of repeating ''misinformation'' that ''is not sourced and is only designed to tarnish Trent's reputation.''

Williams said Thursday he told the Redskins about a growth on his scalp six years ago and the team's medical personnel downplayed its severity; he said he eventually had a tumor removed.

A day later, former Redskins GM and current NFL Network analyst Charley Casserly said Williams was told three years ago that the growth on his head should be tested and said the player never scheduled the procedure.