CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

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Belichick at loss of words after 1st loss
November 4, 2019
By The Associated Press


BALTIMORE (AP) New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick can be prickly and standoffish, even after a dominating victory.

Belichick showed a different side Sunday night after the Patriots lost for the first time in 11 months, 37-20 to the Baltimore Ravens.

After watching his defense get shredded by Ravens dual threat Lamar Jackson and unable to will quarterback Tom Brady into another amazing comeback, the usually unflappable Belichick was uncharacteristically soft-spoken, barely registering above a whisper as he tried to explain what happened.

''We competed out there, but it just wasn't good enough,'' Belichick said. ''There is really not much to say tonight.''

Virtually every question posed to Belichick during his five-minute postgame availability was met with some variation on that theme.

Belichick acknowledged that Jackson's speed posed problems for a defense that couldn't keep up with him. He agreed that the Patriots committed too many self-inflicted mistakes to overcome. A coach who always seems supremely confident of his team and Brady looked shell-shocked and seemed at a loss for words.

''We all have to do a better job, starting with me,'' he sighed.

The Patriots (8-1) came in allowing only 7.6 points per game and with a plus-17 turnover differential. None of that seemed to matter to the Ravens, who scored on each of their first three possessions to take a 17-0 lead.

An offside penalty on the initial drive enabled the Ravens to get out of field goal formation and go for a touchdown, which Jackson scored on a frolic around left end.

The Patriots forced two turnovers, made two themselves and never got closer than four points after putting themselves in that early hole. The Patriots' first giveaway, a fumble by Julian Edelman, was taken 70 yards the opposite way for a Baltimore touchdown.

''He was just trying to get yards,'' Brady said of Edelman. ''Give them credit. Those types of plays, good defenses make.''

The Patriots' other turnover, an interception by Brady in the fourth quarter, was following a 14-play drive that sealed the deal.

New England hit hard, but simply didn't play as well as the Ravens.

''It was a physical game. My neck feels it right now,'' Ravens guard Marshal Yanda said. ''Give them a lot of credit. They're very physical, but tonight we made more plays than them.''

Most of them by Jackson, who ran for two scores and threw for another. Belichick said in the days leading up to the game that he didn't have anyone on his team who could emulate Jackson's speed and agility, and on Sunday he saw first-hand just how quick the second-year quarterback can be.

At least the Patriots won't have to face him again - until, perhaps, the playoffs.

''They are not on the schedule, so we don't have to worry about them,'' Belichick said.

The offense was sound, with the exception of the two turnovers. Brady went 30 for 46 for 285 yards and a touchdown , and Edelman and Mohamed Sanu each had 10 catches.

Now comes a bye, and the Patriots will spend some of the time thinking about their first loss of the season and how to improve for the second half.

''Losses always find a way to recalibrate how you see yourself,'' Brady said. ''We obviously have a lot of work to do. When you get beat by 17 points, that's now what we're about.''

Said Edelman: ''We can go either of two days from here - we can learn from it and get better or go the other way. I have faith we are going to learn from it and get back to where we need to be.''
 

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Rodgers rips road focus after blowout
November 3, 2019
By The Associated Press


CARSON, Calif. (AP) There's a saying around the NBA about visiting teams that play terribly at Staples Center after spending the previous evening out enjoying Hollywood's innumerable pleasures for young millionaires.

LA nightlife is undefeated.

Aaron Rodgers wouldn't go so far as to say explicitly that the young Green Bay Packers enjoyed too much of the good life during their weekend on the coast. But the 35-year-old superstar said something was very wrong with the Packers' preparation before their 26-11 thrashing from the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

''We've got to be honest with our routine and the decisions we made in the last 48 hours, and make sure that our head is in the right place the next time we come on a big road trip,'' Rodgers said.

The Packers fell to 7-2 when their four-game winning streak ended in embarrassing fashion. Green Bay managed 184 total yards - nearly 200 below its season average - while yielding 442 yards to the Bolts, who blew out the NFC North leaders with shocking comprehensiveness.

''I don't think it was complacency at all,'' Rodgers said. ''I just think whether it was the trip, not everybody taking care of themselves the right way over the two days, or we were just tired, or the differences in temperature. But those are just excuses, and the facts are that we just weren't locked in from the start, and that's a little disappointing.''

Rodgers went back to mention his offense's poor preparation and the possible reasons for it several times during his postgame news conference. The oldest player on the Green Bay offense appeared to be highlighting a message he had already sent to his younger teammates in private about professionalism.

''This was a good slice of humble pie for us,'' Rodgers said. ''We're kind of rolling, 7-1, and starting to listen to the chatter maybe a little too much. I think this will be a good thing for us.''

Other veteran leaders noticed the Packers' lack of effort and execution in key areas.

''We just couldn't get that spark that we needed,'' said cornerback Tramon Williams, the oldest player on the defense. ''We were looking for it to come from somewhere, but we just couldn't get it for whatever reason. But at the same time, we need games like this. We're going to be better from it.''

Rodgers went 23 of 35 for 161 yards, his lowest total in a full game since December 2015. His 61 yards passing through three quarters were his lowest career total during a game in which he played all three. He appeared to have little cohesion with his receivers, even with the return of Davante Adams from a four-game absence with turf toe.

Rodgers also got chased and battered all day by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the Chargers' dynamic pass-rushing duo. They combined for three sacks and six quarterback hits even though the Bolts almost never blitzed, using only their four-man front.

All told, Green Bay managed only six first downs and 69 yards in the first three quarters between several sustained drives by Los Angeles.

''I've got to do a lot better job of putting our guys in position, because we really didn't even get into the game plan,'' coach Matt LaFleur said. ''It was a spread, throw-it-all-over-the-yard kind of game, and that's not what we want to be.''

Green Bay had only three possessions in the first half, all ending in punts. The Pack couldn't finish a drive with a touchdown until they already trailed by 23, finally reaching the end zone with 6:21 to play.

The defense played creditably, but only slowed down the Chargers' long drives when they reached the red zone. Green Bay finally yielded a touchdown in the third quarter on a short drive after its punt protection unit allowed Bolts rookie Drue Tranquill to block a punt.

Former Wisconsin Badgers running back Melvin Gordon then scored his second touchdown in the fourth quarter, one play after Green Bay's Tony Brown committed defensive offside during a field goal attempt to prolong the Chargers' drive.

From top to bottom, the Packers looked nothing like the impressive team that got off to a superb start for LaFleur and sparked immediate talk of Super Bowl contention.

But the rookie head coach isn't worried just yet, and the Packers have no more trips to Los Angeles on their regular season schedule.

Just New York and San Francisco.

''It was a frustrating day,'' LaFleur said. ''We just have to hit the reset button, like we say every week, and get back to the drawing board. Just be more prepared for these situations.''
 

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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DAL at NYG 08:15 PM

DAL -6.5 *****

U 48.5 *****
 

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Prescott throws for 3 TDs as Cowboys beat Giants again
November 4, 2019

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) Dak Prescott shook off an interception on his first pass of the game and threw three touchdown passes, leading the Dallas Cowboys to a 37-18 victory over the New York Giants in a Monday night game briefly delayed by an elusive black cat.

Prescott hit Blake Jarwin for a much-needed 42-yard touchdown late in the second quarter. He added a 15-yarder to Michael Gallup and a 45-yarder to Amari Cooper in the fourth as Dallas (5-3) beat New York (2-7) for the sixth straight time.

Brett Maher kicked three field goals, including a 52-yarder in the waning seconds of the first half that gave Dallas the lead for good after falling behind 12-3 in the second quarter. Jourdan Lewis scored on a 63-yard fumble return in the final seconds.

The win gave the Cowboys, who were coming off a bye, a half-game lead over Philadelphia in the NFC East and improved their record in the division to 4-0, including a win over the Eagles.

Ezekiel Elliott ran for 139 yards for Dallas, which outscored the Giants 34-9 after the cat appeared late in the second quarter, forcing referee Clay Martin to delay the game for a couple of minutes until the feline was herded up a stadium tunnel.

Daniel Jones threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Cody Latimer for fading New York. Aldrick Rosas hit four field goals, but he also missed an extra point attempt that was important in sending New York to its fifth straight loss.

Rosas' 25-yarder gave the Giants a 12-3 lead with 2:50 left, but the Cowboys scored 10 points in the final 52 seconds of the half to take a 13-12 lead.

Jarwin, who has scored five of his six career touchdowns against the Giants, rambled most of the 42 yards on the score to get Dallas within 12-10 with :52 left in the half.

Xavier Woods intercepted a third-down pass by Jones on the ensuing series and returned it to the Giants 38, setting up Maher's go-ahead field goal on the final play.

The teams exchanged field goals in the third quarter, with a Jones fumble forced by Woods setting up Dallas. Rosas answered for New York.

The chippy fourth quarter belonged to Dallas and Prescott, who finished 22 of 35 for 257 yards. He has thrown for 12 TDs against New York in the last four games.

Jones finished 26 of 41 for 210 yards, with most coming on a 65-yard play by Saquon Barkley, his longest reception.

WORTH NOTING

Jones has dropped five in a row after winning his first two starts. The only other rookie quarterback who lost five in a row after winning his first two starts was John Elway in 1983, according to Stats .

INJURIES

Cowboys: Safety Jeff Heath left early in second half with a leg injury.

UP NEXT

Cowboys: Host Minnesota on Sunday night.

Giants: Home to play an away game against the Jets on Sunday.
 

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WEEK 10

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Chargers Oakland Raiders

Sunday, November 10, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM New York Giants New York Jets
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs Tennessee Titans
4:05 PM Miami Dolphins Indianapolis Colts
4:25 PM Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers
4:25 PM Los Angeles Rams Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 PM Minnesota Vikings Dallas Cowboys

Monday, November 11, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers


******************************


NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................13-11-0..........54.16%..........+4.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals......................6 - 3............+13.50.............3 - 6...............-18.00.............-4.50



*******************************

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
 

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🏈Nick Foles has regained his job as the Jaguars? starting QB.


🏈Gardner Minshew has resumed his spot as a backup.


🏈Cam Newton has been placed on IR, likely ending his season and potentially his time in Carolina.





NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 10:

Road Teams: 75-58-2 ATS
Home Teams: 58-75-2 ATS

Favorites: 57-76-2 ATS
Underdogs: 76-57-2 ATS

Home Faves: 35-53-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 23-22 ATS

Road Faves: 22-23 ATS
Road Dogs: 53-35-2 ATS

O/U: 65-70




NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
t3. Patriots 6-3 ATS
t3. Packers 6-3 ATS
t3. Cardinals 6-3 ATS
t6. 49ers, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys, Raiders, & Steelers Tied at 5-3 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

t28. Jets 2-6 ATS
t28. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t28. Buccaneers 2-6 ATS
t28. Browns 2-6 ATS
t28. Bears 2-6 ATS
t26. Redskins 3-6 ATS
t26. Giants 3-6 ATS
 

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Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 7

LA CHARGERS at OAKLAND (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Chargers have won and covered last four in series, and have covered last four at Coliseum. Bolts 13-4-1 vs. spread last 18 reg season games outside LA city limits. Chargers ?under? 9-2 last 11 reg season.
Tech Edge: Chargers and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


Sunday, Nov. 10

KANSAS CITY at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Chiefs 3-1 vs. line away TY, 9-3 vs. spread on road since LY. KC ?over? 11-4 last 15 reg season games, Titans ?over? 6-2 last 8 at Nashville.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and Chiefs, based on ?totals? and team trends.


BUFFALO at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 5-0-1 vs. spread last six on road, also 8-3 ?under? since late 2018. Browns no covers last four as host.
Tech Edge: Bills and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


ARIZONA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cardinals have covered 4 of last 5 after SF last Thursday, also 3-1 vs. line away TY. Bucs now ?over? 7-2 last 9 since late LY. Also TB first home game since Week 3!
Tech Edge: Cards and slight to ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


NY GIANTS at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-8-1 last eleven dating to late 2018. G-Men ?over? 11-6 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and Giants, based on ?totals? and team trends.


ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs have lost and failed to cover 6 of last 8 in series, including 3 of last 4 at Superdome. Atlanta no covers last five as visitor. Saints on 6-game spread win streak.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.


BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 6-1 vs. spread last seven on road. Winless Bengals 0-3 vs. spread at Paul Brown TY, also ?under? 8-3-2 last 13 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears only 2-7 last 9 on board since late 2018 , 12-3 ?under? last 15 since late 2018. Lions 5-2 vs. spread last seven on road since late 2018. ?Unders? 5-2 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Lions and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


MIAMI at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Dolphins have covered last four TY. Colts ?over? 4-1 last five at Lucas Oil.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and slight to ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-1 vs. spread last five TY, 3-1 on road in 2019. Rivera 2-2 as dog TY, 20-10 as dog since late 2014. Pack 6-3 vs. line TY.
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.


L.A. RAMS at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams 8-2 vs. line last 10 reg season games, and have covered last six reg season away from Coliseum. Also 8-2 ?under? last ten away from home. Steel 5-1 vs. line since Big Ben went down, and note Tomlin's 8-1 mark in dog role since LY. Steel on 6-2 ?under? run.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on totals? trends.


MINNESOTA at DALLAS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Dak 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight at home (3-1 TY). Zimmer ?under? 18-9-2 since late 2017. Vikes 2-6 last 8 as dog.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


Monday, Nov. 11

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Hawks have covered six straight as road dog. Visitor and dog is 9-2 vs. line last eleven Seattle games since late LY. Hawks had won 10 in a row SU vs. Niners prior to loss last December at Levi?s.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.
 

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107LA CHARGERS -108 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 14-43 ATS (-33.3 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.

251KANSAS CITY -252 TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

253BUFFALO -254 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

255ARIZONA -256 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

257NY GIANTS -258 NY JETS
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

259ATLANTA -260 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

259ATLANTA -260 NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

261BALTIMORE -262 CINCINNATI
BALTIMORE is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

263CAROLINA -264 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 37-14 ATS (21.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

265DETROIT -266 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.

267MIAMI -268 INDIANAPOLIS
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

269LA RAMS -270 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 64-30 ATS (31 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

271MINNESOTA -272 DALLAS
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (11.2 Units) in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.

273SEATTLE -274 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-11 ATS (20.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10


Thursday, November 7

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 5) at OAKLAND (4 - 4) - 11/7/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-85 ATS (-39.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 40-82 ATS (-50.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 10

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (4 - 5) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 118-157 ATS (-54.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (6 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 5 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 6) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 7) at NY JETS (1 - 7) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 39-65 ATS (-32.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY JETS are 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 1) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at CINCINNATI (0 - 8) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (5 - 3) at GREEN BAY (7 - 2) - 11/10/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 113-84 ATS (+20.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 197-142 ATS (+40.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 120-89 ATS (+22.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 4 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 5) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) - 11/10/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 4) - 11/10/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 72-105 ATS (-43.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
LA RAMS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 3) at DALLAS (5 - 3) - 11/10/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 11

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SEATTLE (7 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 0) - 11/11/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SEATTLE is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Week 10


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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 7

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 16 games at home
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Chargers is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
LA Chargers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland


Sunday, November 10

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 13 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games at home
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Detroit
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 4-8-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Kansas City's last 14 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland's last 24 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
NY Jets is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 22 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 3-9-1 SU in its last 13 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Pittsburgh's last 20 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
LA Rams is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games on the road
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
LA Rams is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games
Dallas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Dallas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games at home
Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas


Monday, November 11

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 18 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco


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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10


Chargers (4-5) @ Raiders (4-4)
? Chargers won last two games after a 2-5 start; they outrushed Green Bay 159-45 LW, first time since Week 2 they ran for 100+ yards. Bolts held last two foes (Chi-GB) to two TD?s on 19 drives; they split four road games TY, seven of their last eight games stayed under the total. Under Lynn, LA is 4-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points, 0-2-1 TY. Oakland covered four of last five games, won two of three SU at home; four of their last five games went over. Raiders allowed 24+ points in six of its last seven games. Chargers won last four series games, last three by combined score of 76-26; they won 17-16/20-6 in last two visits to Oakland.

Chiefs (6-3) @ Titans (4-5)
? Mahomes (knee) may return here; check status. Chiefs are 4-0 SU on road, 2-3 at home TY; they?re 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road favorite, 3-1 TY. KC has only one takeaway in its last three games and scored only 22 points in last six red zone drives. Tennessee won its last two home games by total of 7 points; their home losses are by 2-7 points. Titans covered four of last six games as a home underdog; all three Tannehill starts went over. Tennessee won last three series games, winning last meeting 22-21 in a 2017 playoff game at Arrowhead. This is KC?s first visit to Nashville since ?13. AFC West teams are 14-12 ATS outside the division, 2-2 as road favorites; AFC South teams 13-11 ATS, 8-5 as an underdog.

Bills (6-2) @ Browns (2-6)
? Cleveland lost its last four games, giving up 28.5 ppg; they lost all three home games SU, by 30-7-4 points. Browns are 0-3 in games decided by 7 or less points, 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 0-2 TY. Buffalo is 19-12-2 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog, 2-0 TY; they?re 3-0 SU on road, last of which was in Week 5. Bills were held to 10-13 points in their two losses; six of eight Buffalo games stayed under the total. Buffalo won four of last five series games; last four meetings were all decided by 10+ points. Bills lost two of last three visits to Dawg Pound. AFC East underdogs are 4-6 ATS outside the division, 2-3 on road; AFC North home favorites are 0-8 ATS outside the division.

Cardinals (3-5-1) @ Buccaneers (2-6)
? Tampa Bay is 4-15-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite; Bucs? coach Arians faces his old team (49-30-1 from 2013-17) here- this is Tampa Bay?s first home game since Week 3. Bucs lost their last four games overall, giving up 33.8 ppg- they scored 32.8 ppg in five games where they turned ball over less than two times. Cardinals covered four of last five games, three of four road games; they haven?t turned ball over at all (+4) in their last five games. Redbirds are 7-4-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY. Arizona won last three series games, winning last one 38-33 two years ago. NFC West road underdogs are 7-1 ATS outside their division.

Giants (2-6) vs Jets (1-7)
? This is both teams? home field; not much to choose from here. Giants turned ball over three times in their 37-18 home loss to Dallas Monday nite; they?ve coughed ball up 16 times (-5) in their last six games, are 1-4 SU on this field, with only win over Washington. Three of their last four games went over total. Jets lost last three games, by 33-14-8 points; they were outscored 64-19 in first half of those games. Gang Green has a -12 turnover ratio in last five games- five of their seven losses are by 14+ points. Giants won five of last six series games; two of last four meetings went to OT. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-7 ATS; AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-6 ATS.
 

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Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 10 odds: Take your time with those Tampa Bay bets
Jason Logan

Tampa Bay opened as big as -6 hosting Arizona and has watched that line drop as low as -4, with money on the road underdog in NFL Week 10.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 10 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3, 40)

Have you seen that image of Baker Mayfield in the postgame press conference after last week?s loss to Denver? Of course, you have. That meme-inspiring mug shot is the personification of how the betting public views the Browns right now. And it ain?t pretty.

Cleveland is sitting as a field-goal favorite hosting the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, and that line is swinging towards the road team. There are some books that have already ticked off the key number to -2.5 (and a handful that actually went to -2) while others are on their way, with discounted juiced on Cleveland -3 trying to stick to the field goal.

If you like the Bills in this one, grab them +3 if you can. Buffalo has bookended a bad loss at home to Philadelphia in Week 8 with cupcake wins over the Dolphins and Redskins, but is 3-0 ATS as a visitor in 2019.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51.5)

The Buccaneers are back home for the first time in almost 50 days in Week 10 and welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Raymond James Sunday. Oddsmakers sent out Tampa Bay as big as a 6-point home chalk and that has been bet down to -4.5 with money on the underdog.

Now, the Bucs have had some bad luck in the past two games. Tampa Bay was robbed of a vital scoop-and-score at Tennessee in Week 8 and got hosed on a similar call in its overtime loss to Seattle last Sunday. This team could easily be on a two-game winning streak and this spread would look much different.

Arizona put up a good fight versus San Francisco and has a mini bye due to that Thursday outing in Week 9. Even after the move to -4.5 (and -4 at select markets), some books are slimming the vig on Tampa Bay and at that dead number, a sudden jolt to -3.5 isn?t out of the question. In you?re backing the Buccos, play the waiting game.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 43.5

The status of Colts QB Jacoby Brissett will have a large impact on this number, after getting his knee and ankle twisted up in Week 9. Brissett is playing well ? safe but well ? for Indianapolis in the wake of Andrew Luck?s sudden retirement, but this offense is still very much about the run (46.7 percent rushing plays).

Given his importance to the Colts? playoff chances and the fact that this week?s opponent is Miami ? the red-hot Fins, I should add ? the team will likely lean to resting Brissett, bringing out backup QB Brian Hoyer to hand off a lot.

Once Brissett is officially announced out of action, the public will overreact to his absence and walk this total down a few more points. If you like the Under in this one, bet it now at 43.5. The Dolphins offense is still a mess, just lost RB Mark Walton to a suspension, and Indy will ground and pound in what should be a very uneventful afternoon.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS OVER 44

This non-conference clash opened with the Over/Under as high as 45.5 and has watched a point and a half chopped off with early money on the Under. The Rams are coming off a bye week and suffocated a pair bad teams ? Atlanta and Cincinnati ? to 10 points apiece in their last two outings.

The Steelers defense has looked solid since Week 4, giving up just 16.8 points per game over their last five contests. Also working in Pittsburgh?s favor could be the forecast, which is calling for a little ?Guns N? Roses? late on Sunday: cold November rain. That?s a far cry from the sun and surf of southern California.

Los Angeles has put up some sizable numbers on the road this season, averaging 28 points as a visitor in 2019, and while a lot will be made of QB Jared Goff?s career home/road splits, the production isn?t that different to warrant an auto-Under play. If you?re thinking about the Over in this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, play it cool and see how low the total will go before pulling the trigger.
 

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Best spot bets for the NFL Week 10 odds: Baltimore bettors in a bad situation
Jason Logan

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year.

With nine weeks of NFL season on the tires, teams can be even more susceptible to situational spots ? AKA spots bets ? in the backend of the schedule. Football bettors will want to give the calendar a once-over while handicapping the NFL odds, circling the possible letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots that could hold value.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan does just that in NFL Week 10, giving his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact this Sunday?s outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+10. 45.5)

There are few bigger highs than taking a win from the Patriots. That?s where we find the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, playing the downtrodden Cincinnati Bengals a week removed from putting the boots to Brady & Co.

Baltimore not only has to deal with that change in intensity ? from battling an undefeated Super Bowl champ to facing an 0-8 Bengals teams starting rookie QB Ryan Finley ? but takes a sour smack of a situational sandwich, walking into a possible lookahead spot as well, with a huge home stand against Houston in Week 11 (which could have playoff seeding implications).

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year. Baltimore blew away Miami in Week 1, battled hard for a win in Seattle in Week 7, and upset New England at home last week. But the Ravens failed to cover versus the likes of Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and these very Bengals in Week 6.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5, 44)

If any team was going to look past this week?s foe, the Colts have the best case. Indianapolis was biting its nails while waiting for word on QB Jacoby Brissett?s health after he suffered a knee injury last Sunday. Brissett looks like he avoided any serious damage but his status for Week 10?s home date versus Miami is still undetermined.

While he may be able to grit it out, the Colts might not need him to suit up to upend the Dolphins, and backup Brian Hoyer may get the nod. Even if Brissett does play, expect the team to protect any further injury as they plan for a big divisional matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11.

The Jaguars are coming off the bye week and making a move to the returning Nick Foles at QB, benching rookie passer and pop-culture phenomenon Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will be playing it safe ahead of that divisional dance and brings a 0-5-1 ATS mark in its last six meetings with losing teams into a Week 10 game against one of the NFL's worst.


SCHEDULE SPOT: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51)

It?s a pirate?s life for the Buccaneers, who have been out to sea for nearly 50 days before making port at Raymond James Stadium in Week 10. Tampa Bay is coming off a grueling stretch of games away from home, starting at L.A. in Week 4 and spanning a trip to London, England in Week 6, a bye in Week 7, and back-to-back controversial losses at Tennessee and Seattle the past two outings.

This matchup with the Cardinals is just Tampa Bay?s third true road game of the season, having lost the other two to San Francisco and the New York Giants. There?s a lot of motivation to get the football-starved Florida faithful a victory this Sunday and the home-field edge could be just what the Buccaneers need to get over the hump after four of their six losses were decided by a touchdown or less.

The Bucs could easily be taking a two-game winning streak into this matchup with Arizona, if not for some botched calls by the officials in Weeks 8 and 9. We saw the Oakland Raiders in a similar schedule spot in Week 9, returning home for the first time after a 49-day period with a bang: winning and covering as 2-point chalk over Detroit last Sunday.
 

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MVP PATH GOES THROUGH SAN FRAN

The San Francisco 49ers stand as the only undefeated team in the league having won against QBs Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the last month and a half.

Out of all those signal callers, the more mobile Murray was the one whose offense put up 357 yards (the most San Francico has allowed this year) and 19 first downs (the most allowed since Week 2). This Monday, the 49ers will start a tough schedule where they have to play three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a month, starting with the league?s MVP frontrunner: Russell Wilson.

Wilson is coming into this matchup with a league-best passer rating of 118.2 and 22 touchdowns to one interception. The Seattle Seahawks QB will have to use his legs and elusiveness to breakdown the league?s best DVOA pass defense and aggressive pass rush.

Wilson will face a San Fran defense that plays zone more than nearly every other team in the league. Per Sharp Football, Wilson picks up 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 61-percent success versus zone defenses, compared to 6.7 YPA and 45 percent versus man coverage.

This is good news for the Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon, who average six-foot-three and nearly 220 pounds. Look for Wilson to use that size advantage versus the smaller San Francisco secondary while also allowing Tyler Lockett to do what he does: 19 catches for 252 yards and two scores in his last two games.

San Francisco's loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander is also a huge problem as he was ranked as the best coverage linebacker in the league per ProFootballFocus.

We like the Seahawks +6. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this year with the only ATS loss being a 7-point win in Atlanta as 7.5-point chalk.


JONES EATS WITH THE LEAD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones started again last week and outperformed Peyton Barber for the second straight week.

In games where Jones receives at least 14 carries (three games), the RB is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with two TDs. The problem for Jones lies in the game flow. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, then third-down back Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the snaps. With the 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals on deck for Sunday, the Bucs will have a much better shot at playing with the lead as 4.5-point home favorites.

The Cardinals sit 23rd in rush attempts against at 28 and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. However, stay away from the Jones anytime TD prop as Arizona is tied for third fewest rushing TDs allowed.

We like Jones? total yards prop better than just rushing as he has been steadily chipping in one or two grabs a game and averaging 15.5 yards per reception. Take the Over on Jones? total yards on any number below 82.


THURSDAY NIGHT AIR RAID

No team in the league has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Oakland Raiders. So far in 2019, Jon Gruden?s team is giving up 2.7 touchdowns through the air per game and is allowing a tasty 3.7 passing TDs a game over its last three.

This is great news for Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, whose team is coming off a dominating performance versus Green Bay last week where Rivers tossed for 294 yards but no touchdown passes. Rivers has not been held to zero touchdowns in back-to-back games since December 2015 and has 45 TDs in 26 career games against the Raiders including three straight games of two or more versus his AFC West rivals.

We are jumping on the Rivers Over 1.5 TDs play for some Thursday Night Football action.


SOMEONE HAS TO WIN THIS GAME

Just when things were getting exciting for the Giants as the offense was finally getting healthy, Sterling Shepard re-entered concussion protocol before Monday night?s game and now Evan Engram is dealing with a foot injury.

Having lost five straight games while averaging a league-worst 2.4 giveaways, things are looking bleak ahead of their game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

Speaking of turnovers, this game could easily feature half a dozen as the Jets are just as bad at keeping the ball, turning it over 3.3 times over their last three games. Despite all the poor quarterback play from both teams, playing on a short week won?t help the Giants get healthier versus a Jets team that just lost to the lowly Dolphins ? an added motivation.

We?re grabbing the home dogs at +3 as it looks as if that line will move under that key number, with some markets already showing +2.5.
 

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10


Falcons (1-7) @ Saints (7-1)
? Atlanta shuffled some assistant coaches during bye week, signed their 5th punter of year; not good. Falcons lost their last six games (1-5 ATS); they?re 0-4 SU on road, losing by 16-3-1-21 points- they?re 1-9 ATS in last ten games a road underdog, 0-3 TY. Three of their four road games went over total. New Orleans won/covered its last six games; Brees came back from injury last game and threw for 373 yards. Saints won last three series games, by 10-6-14 points; Falcons lost six of last eight visits to Bourbon Street, losing 23-13/31-17 in last two. Both teams are coming off a bye; Atlanta covered six of last eight post-bye games, New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten post-bye tilts.

Ravens (6-2) @ Bengals (0-8)
? Trap game for Ravens after they spanked Patriots LW. Rookie QB Finley gets his first NFL start here for winless Bengals; QB?s making their first career start this season are an amazing 9-1 ATS (5-4-1 SU). Ravens (-11) beat Bengals 23-17 at home four weeks ago, running ball for 269 yards- they outgained Cincy 497-250. Teams split season series last three years; Ravens lost six of last seven visits to Cincy. Ravens won last four games, scoring 25.3 ppg; they?re 7-12-1 ATS ij last 20 games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY- five of their last six games went over. Bengals are 0-3 SU at home, losing by 24-3-10 points; they covered one of last five post-bye games. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Panthers (5-3) @ Packers (7-2)
? Carolina won five of six Allen starts; they?re 2-1 SU in true road games, with only loss at 8-0 49ers- their last four games went over. Panthers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Packers had 4-game win streak snapped by Chargers LW; LA outgained them 442-184. Green Bay is 23-14-2 in last 39 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Five of their last seven games went over. Since 2015, Packers are 13-15 ATS coming off a loss. Carolina won last two series games, 37-29/31-24; this is Carolina?s first trip to Lambeau in five years- they?re 2-4 SU in Green Bay. NFC South road underdogs are 5-7 ATS outside the division; NFC North home favorites are 5-5.

Lions (3-4-1) @ Bears (3-5)
? Detroit had ball on Oakland?s 1-yard line at end of LW?s game, didn?t score and lost for third time TY by 7 or less points- only one of Lions? eight games was decided by more than 7 points. Under Patricia, Detroit is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Last six Detroit games went over the total. Bears lost last four games, outscored 48-19 in first half; they have one takeaway (-4) in last three games, after having 10 in first five games. Chicago is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite TY, after being 6-0 LY. Bears are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games with a spread of 3 or fewer points. Chicago swept Lions 34-22/23-16 LY, after losing nine of previous ten series games; Detroit lost two of last three visits to the Windy City.

Dolphins (1-7) @ Colts (5-3)
? Indy QB Brissett has sprained MCL (check status). Miami led its last three games at halftime; they covered last four games, but have been outscored 136-25 in 2nd half of games this year. Dolphins are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Colts had 3-game win snapped when they missed a 43-yard FG with 1:11 left; Indy won three of four home games, is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite. Five of their eight games were decided by 3 or fewer points or in OT. Indy won six of last seven series games; five of the six wins were by 6 or fewer points. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 ATS; AFC East underdogs are 4-6 ATS, 2-3 on road.

Rams (5-3) @ Steelers (4-4)
? Steelers won last three games after a 1-4 start; they covered five of last six games, are 3-2 SU at home, with two losses by total of 5 points. Over last decade, Pitt is 9-4-1 ATS as a home underdog, 2-0 TY- they?ve had a positive TO ratio in their last seven games. LA won its last two games, converting 15-29 3rd down plays, after a 3-game skid when they were 7-31 on 3rd down. Rams are 10-6 as road favorites under McVay, 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 post-bye games, winning 51-17/30-16 in last two. Pitt won last three series games by combined score of 80-30; Rams lost five of last six visits to Steel City, with their last win here in ?03. AFC North home teams are 1-10 ATS outside their division; NFC West road favorites are 3-2.

Vikings (6-3) @ Cowboys (5-3)
? Minnesota won four of last five games, losing on last-second FG at Arrowhead LW; Vikings are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog, 0-3 TY? they held six of eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. Cowboys scored 31+ points in all five of their wins, 10-24-22 in their losses. Dallas is 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY; they ran ball for 189-172 yards in their last two games, both divisional wins. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ?16; Vikings split last six visits here, last of which was in ?13. NFC East teams are 9-14 ATS outside the division, 3-3 as HF; NFC North teams are 11-12-1 ATS, 2-3 as road underdogs.

Seahawks (7-2) @ 49ers (8-0)
? Richard Sherman?s first game against his old team. Seattle won 10 of last 11 series games; their 26-23 OT loss here LY was their first loss in last five trips to Santa Clara. Unbeaten 49ers are 5-3 ATS this year, 2-1 as HF?s; five of their eight wins are by 13+ points- they held six of eight foes under 300 TY, holding five opponents under 250. Seattle rallied from down 21-7 LW to beat the Bucs in OT; Seahawks scored 28.5 ppg in winning all four of their road games; they?re 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog. 2-0 TY. Seattle ran ball for 145+ yards in four of last five games; they allowed 33-30 points in their two losses, giving up three defensive TDs and a punt return TD in those two games.
 

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TNF - Chargers at Raiders
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK
For the first time this season, the Chargers (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off consecutive victories after dominating the Packers, 26-11 as four-point home underdogs. Although Los Angeles didn?t score its first touchdown until the second half, the Chargers owned a 9-0 halftime lead and were aided by a pair of Melvin Gordon short touchdown runs to build a commanding 26-3 advantage.

The Chargers picked up their first home win since a Week 1 overtime triumph over the Colts as L.A.?s defense stepped up by holding Green Bay to 13 first downs and 184 total yards. The Lightning Bolts posted 442 yards of offense, its highest output since a Week 2 loss at Detroit when Los Angeles racked up 424 yards offensively in spite of scoring only 10 points. Philip Rivers was held without a touchdown pass for the first time in four games, but Gordon busted out with 80 yards rushing after putting up 112 yards in the previous four contests combined.

The Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) climbed back to the .500 mark after holding off the Lions, 31-24 at the Coliseum last Sunday. Rookie Josh Jacobs found the end zone twice in the first half, while quarterback Derek Carr hit Hunter Renfrow on the go-ahead touchdown for Oakland with two minutes remaining in regulation. Detroit had an opportunity to tie the game in the final seconds with four and goal at the Oakland 1-yard line, but Matthew Stafford?s pass was incomplete and the Raiders grabbed their first home victory since Week 1 against Denver.

Jacobs has topped the 120-yard rushing mark for the third time in four games, while the Raiders are 3-0 when he scores a touchdown (he has actually scored twice in all three of those wins). Carr has been intercepted only once in the last five games, leading the Raiders to at least 24 points or more in five consecutive contests. The Raiders are allowing the most passing yards per game by averaging nearly 300 a contest, as Stafford and Green Bay?s Aaron Rodgers each threw for over 400 yards in two of the past three weeks.

SERIES HISTORY
It?s been all Chargers the last two seasons against their rivals from the East Bay as Los Angeles is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread. Oakland actually posted a 4-0 mark against the Lightning Bolts from 2015-2016, which included three wins by three points each. The Chargers broke that four-game skid with a 17-16 triumph in Oakland in October 2017, followed by a 30-10 rout in the season finale at home.

In Jon Gruden?s return to the Raiders? sidelines last season, the Raiders couldn?t figure out the Chargers in a pair of double-digit defeats that each finished ?under? the total. The Bolts cruised past the Raiders at home, 26-10 as five-point favorites in Week 5 of 2018, led by 339 yards passing and two touchdown passes by Rivers. Los Angeles took care of Oakland at the Black Hole in the next meeting five weeks later, 20-6 as 10 ?-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown tosses from Rivers, including a 66-yard scoring play to Gordon.

TWO MUCH?
The Raiders have won back-to-back games only once since Gruden came back to Oakland in 2018 and that was earlier this season in victories over the Colts and Bears. Both came as an underdog and both came away from the Coliseum, as Oakland is 0-4 since last season off a home win. The Chargers are fresh off their first two-game winning streak of the season, while playing only their second division opponent of 2019 after losing to Denver back in Week 5.

TRUST THE CHALK?
The Chargers won their last two games in the underdog role against the Bears and Packers, but Anthony Lynn?s squad has covered only once when laying points this season, coming at Miami in Week 4 as 15-point favorites. Thursday night favorites this season have cashed twice in nine opportunities, including a pair of straight up wins/non-covers the last two weeks with the Vikings and 49ers as double-digit chalk not covering the spread in victories. The only road favorite to win and cover on Thursday night this season did so in a battle of AFC West teams in Week 7 when the Chiefs blew out the Broncos, 30-3.

TOTAL TALK
The 2019 Thursday Night Football matchup has had solid back-and-forth total results with the ?under? holding a 5-4 record and that includes the Week 1 outcome between the Packers and Bears.

Of the nine games, six of them were divisional matchups and the ?under? has produced a 4-2 record in those contests but the two ?over? tickets did occur on the West Coast.

Will that trend continue this week at RingCentral Coliseum from Oakland? Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this total.

?Part of my handicapping philosophy is that results usually find a way to balance out in the long run and we saw that firsthand last Sunday when the home teams finally showed up. Sticking with that thought and this divisional matchup, we?re starting to see an uptick in totals for these games. The ?under? went 19-10 (66%) in divisional matchups through the first six weeks of the season but the ?over? has posted a 7-3 (70%) mark over the previous three weekends,? said David.

Backing the ?over? in this game could be a reach for some, especially when you look at the recent encounters. The ?under? has cashed in five straight games between the Chargers and Raiders, all of them clear-cut winners too with a combined score of 34 PPG.

David offered up his lean, ?It?s a bit of a head-scratcher to see a line get juiced up from 47 ? to 49 when the Chargers have been the best ?under? team (7-2) in the NFL. Los Angeles certainly has the ability to move the chains but its inability to cash in the red zone is beyond frustrating. This season, the Bolts have 17 field goals and 18 touchdowns, not a good ratio for ?over? tickets.?

?While that production certainly could make you hesitant to back them or the high side, we did see the Chargers put up 33 and 29 points in two road games played in the primetime slots last season. I?m going to buy L.A. and its sporadic offense against a suspect Raiders of the defense. If they put up sixes instead of threes, the Team Total Over (24) will connect easily.?

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his analysis on the improvement on the offensive side of the ball for the Silver and Black, ?The offense for the Raiders has been exceptional with a great rebound season from Carr who is 6th in QB Rating in the NFL. Oakland is 6th in passing yards per attempt, but the scoring has been middle-of-the-pack, averaging just below 23 points per game and sitting 20th in yards per point as there have been some red zone issues and a negative turnover differential.?

The upcoming schedules for these teams should be telling ahead according to Nelson, ?The Chargers are on the road three of the next four weeks and the next two home games are against the Chiefs and the Vikings as the playoff opportunity for this team isn?t likely. This team remains capable of high-level performances and a late season run shouldn?t be ruled out while this team could be an attractive underdog in many upcoming games.?

On the flip side, if things break right for the Raiders, Nelson notes this could be a Wild Card team, ?If Oakland can win this week they draw the Bengals and Jets the next two weeks before heading to Kansas City. If Oakland wins the games they are favored in, 10-6 is possible which should be enough in most scenarios for a playoff spot in the AFC.?

PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions ? Philip Rivers (LAC)
Over 23 ? (-110)
Under 23 ? (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes ? Philip Rivers (LAC)
Over 1 ? (-180)
Under 1 ? (+150)

Total Rushing Yards ? Melvin Gordon (LAC)
Over 60 ? (-110)
Under 60 ? (-110)

Will Melvin Gordon (LAC) Score a Touchdown?
Yes -125
No +105

Total Gross Passing Yards ? Derek Carr (OAK)
Over 259 ? (-110)
Under 259 ? (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes ? Derek Carr (OAK)
Over 1 ? (-140)
Under 1 ? (+120)

Total Rushing Yards ? Josh Jacobs (OAK)
Over 84 ? (-110)
Under 84 ? (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT
The Raiders opened as a one-point home favorite at the Westgate Superbook on Sunday evening, but the Chargers were flipped to a 1 ?-point favorite by Monday afternoon. Los Angeles has settled at that number for most of the week, while the total has moved up from 47 ? to 49. The first half line is currently Los Angeles -? (+105), while the total sits at 23 ? (Over -120).
 

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NFL trends for Week 10:

? Buffalo covered seven of its last ten games.

? Carolina is 24-12 ATS in last 36 games as a road underdog.

? Chicago covered eight of its last nine NFC North games.

? Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.

? Arizona covered seven of its last ten games.

? Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen home games.

? Titans are 8-16-2 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.

? Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

? Seattle covered its last five games as a divisional road dog.

? Vikings covered 12 of last 17 games as a road underdog.

? New Orleans won/covered its last six games.

? Green Bay covered 12 of its last 17 games.
 

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HUNTING FOR CHUBB

Nick Chubb currently sits fourth in the league in rushing with 806 yards ? behind Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette ? thanks to his 5.2 yards per rush (sixth best). So of course, Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens said he wants to scale back his attempts to make room for Kareem Hunt who had been suspended for the first eight games of the season. Kitchens sure has a good grasp on how to run a stereotypical Cleveland football team.

The Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-most rushing attempts over the last three weeks (31 per game) at a clip of 4.8 yards per attempt. This means there is still plenty of room for Chubb to get 17-20 rushes on Sunday as Hunt will most likely absorb a good piece of backup RB Dontrell Hilliard?s 40 percent snap share.

Chubb has eclipsed 85 yards rushing in five of his last six weeks against the fourth, 24th, 20th, 22nd and 13th DVOA rush defenses ? Buffalo is ranked 30th. Take Chubbs? Over 91.5 rushing total as the matchup might be Kitchens-proof.


ROAD DOGS LOST THEIR BITE

If you have been following the ATS trends of road and home teams this year, then you will know that the visitors have been dominating with road underdogs hitting at an even higher rate. Heading into last week, road teams were 73-47-2 ATS (60%) and road dogs were 52-29-2 (63%) ATS. However, Week 9 saw a serious regression to the mean as home teams went 11-3 ATS while road dogs went 1-6 ATS.

This week, we like home teams to continue their hot run and are throwing down a two-teamer to prove it. Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Jets as three-point home dogs, so we will exclude them from this list.

Rams at Steelers (+3.5): The Steelers are coming in hot having won four of their last five (with their only loss in overtime against the Ravens) and will look to move into a playoff position with a win over the well-rested Los Angeles Rams. L.A.?s strength of schedule may hurt them as their last three wins were against teams who are 3-21 combined this year.

The game could easily be won on the pass rush where the Steelers are second in the league in QB hits produced while their quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has been sacked more than once just two times in his six game.

Vikings at Cowboys (-3): The Vikes have lost three road games this year to Chicago, Green Bay and last week in Kansas City ? all by at least three points. The offense will also be with Adam Thielen as Kirk Cousins and his 15-26-2 career road record and 1-6 record versus the Cowboys could struggle in primetime.


THE BEST ARE GETTING BETTER

The San Francisco 49ers run game is good ? really good. They lead the NFC in rushing yards per game, rushes per game and rushing touchdowns per game. Things could possibly be getting better for Kyle Shanahan?s rushing attack as left tackle Joe Stanley plans to play in Week 10 against a Seattle Seahawks team that has allowed 367 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.

The 49ers have been less efficient running to the left tackle side as their 4.01 yards per carry is one full yard less than their yards per carry behind the right tackle. Matt Breida saw his snap count increase by 10 percent in Week 9 as he outgained fellow running back Tevin Coleman 78 to 23 but played 12 fewer offensive snaps. The Seahawks? 22nd ranked DVOA rush defense may have no answers for the 49ers rushing game.

We are jumping on Breida?s rushing total of 56.5 yards and hitting the Over is what is shaping up to be an epic Monday night matchup.


RIDING THE ROOKIE WAVE

The Cincinnati Bengals have benched Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley ahead of their Week 10 contest against the talk of the town Baltimore Ravens. The former Wolfpack was the sixth signal-caller taken in this year?s draft and finished the preseason with a 72.3 percent completion rate while only taking four sacks in 64 pass attempts.

We usually like fading rookies, but with how much praise Baltimore is getting after their win over the Patriots, the Ravens may be sleeping on the Bengals who could have the services of A.J. Green. Dalton averaged 281.5 yards a game while taking 3.6 sacks a game proving the offensive potential is there and that this isn't a Luke Falk situation.

Fellow rookie QBs Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen all threw for over 250 yards in their first taste of the NFL this year. Let?s ride the rookie wave and play the Over 250.5 passing yards on Finley and hopefully, he will be drowning in memes come Monday.


KICKERS ARE PEOPLE TOO

For this week?s kicking prop, we are going to stick with what?s working. We are 3-0 over the last three weeks fading the weather in the northeast. Checking out the Covers weather report we can see that poor kicking conditions are expected in Cleveland where the Buffalo Bills meet the Browns.

The weather looks below freezing with strong winds and a high chance of snow. That?s great news as Bills kicker Stephen Hauschka who has yet to make a kick from 50 or longer and hasn?t hit anything longer than 45 yards since Week 4. Cleveland Kicker Austin Seibert has yet to attempt a kick longer than 49.

Take the Under 46.5 yards on the longest field goal.
 

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Thursday, November 7

Game
Time(ET)
Pick
Units
LAC at OAK
08:20 PM
OAK +1.5
U 48.5 *****
*****
 

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Gridiron Angles - Week 10
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0-1 ATS (.27 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a road dog of no more than 13 points coming off a game where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Oct 29, 2017 when their last two games both went over the total.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (9.56 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a favorite coming off a game where Ezekiel Elliott had at least 20 rushes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Browns are 0-12 OU (-8.21 ppg) since Dec 06, 2015 at home on grass when they are off two consecutive losses where they failed to cover.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Giants are 14-0 OU (8.57 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 on the road off a loss as a dog where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-14 ATS (-13.93 ppg) off a loss when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 278 offensive yards per game.
 
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