CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 10
Joe Williams

It's Week 10 of the National Football League regular season, and we're already off to a quick start - kinda. The Thursday night battle between the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders inched over the finish line for 50 points on a line of 49 at most shops. If you're scoring at home, primetime games have now watched the over connect in four straight, which is a season-long streak for games under the lights this season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 9 10-4 9-5 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 66-69-1 65-69-1 60-71-4

The books were back on top in Week 9, but that was mostly due to side bets. The totals were 10-4 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

Bettors hoping for high-scoring games in Week 9 were very pleased, hitting the over in 10 of 14 outings The games got off to quick starts, too, with the over connecting in the first half in nine of 14 contests, with the 'under' going 8-6 in the second half last week. Through 135 games this season, the 'under' sits at 69-66-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (69-65-1) and second-half (71-60-4).

Division Bell

In the four divisional battles in Week 9, three went over - including all three of the games on North American soil. Only the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium ended up going under the total, mostly due to the ineffectiveness of the Jags offense. The under is now 24-15 (61.5%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 9
San Francisco at Arizona Over (43.5) San Francisco 28, Arizona 25
Houston vs. Jacksonville (London) Under (46) Houston 26, Jacksonville 3
N.Y. Jets at Miami Over (42.5) Miami 26, N.Y. Jets 18
Dallas at N.Y. Giants Over (48.5) Dallas 37, N.Y. Giants 18

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: 41 ? to 44 ?
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): 44 to 47
Buffalo at Cleveland: 42 ? to 40
Minnesota at Dallas (SNF): 45 ? to 48
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: 45 ? to 43 ?

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: Under 92%
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: Under 92%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 90%
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): Over 89%
Buffalo at Cleveland: Under 87%
Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 77%
Kansas City at Tennessee: Over 77%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Carolina at Green Bay (66 percent) battle.

Handicapping Week 10

Week 9 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-1 16-23
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 15-15
AFC vs. AFC 3-0 14-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 21-20

Other Week 10 Action

Kansas City at Tennessee: The Chiefs have their big gun back, as QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to be under center after missing the past two due to a partially dislocated kneecap. The over actually hit in each of the past two without Mahomes, and the over is 6-3 in nine games overall. Kansas City is on the road, and there is no real lean here, as the total is 2-2 in four games away from home, all Mahomes starts. The Titans have hit the over in three in a row, scoring 23, 27 and 20, while allowing 20, 23 and 30. It's a big change after the under hit in five in a row from Week 2 through 6. The over is 6-2 in Tennessee's past eight at home, too.

Buffalo at Cleveland: The total has plummeted from 42.5 to 40, and is the lowest total on the board for Week 10. The 'under' opened 5-0 for Buffalo this season, and they were the last team in the NFL to see an 'over' result. The under has hit in all three of Buffalo's game this season, allowing just 12.3 PPG (16, 14 and 7). The under is 8-1 in the past nine overall for Buffalo, too. As far as the Browns are concerned, they were expected to do big things this season. So far, that's only happened once on the road in Week 4 at Baltimore (40 points), and one in Week 6 against Seattle (28 points). They have averaged 14 PPG in the other six outings.

While the Browns are actually favored in this game, keep this in mind...if they lose, season win total bettors will at least push the under 9 on tickets since they would drop to 2-7, with the most wins possible at 9. If the Bills win, they would be 7-2, cashing the over of six wins.

Arizona at Tampa Bay: Bucs head coach Bruce Arians will get a crack at his former team for the first time. This total is well in the fifties, sitting at 52.5 as of Saturday morning. Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have hit the over in 11 of 19 games (57.9 percent). If you remember the Thursday Night system, it's 5-3 this season (62.5 percent), getting back on track with Minnesota's over in Kansas City in Week 9. The home team in the previous Thursday night game has hit the over in five of eight games in their following game. Arizona was home to Frisco last time out, so is an over in the cards? The last time the Cardinals have hit the road for the Eastern Time Zone, they scored 17, 26 and 27 points. The 17 points came in Week 2 in Baltimore, as they left a lot of points on the board in QB Kyler Murray's first NFL road start. The Cards have 22 field goals so far this season, which is troublesome for over bettors. Tampa Bay's pass defense might help solve that, however, as they're downright awful. The over has hit in six straight for the Bucs. They have been favorites twice this season, losing both games while allowing 32 and 31 points.

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: The Jets offense has been abysmal outside of their lone victory against Dallas back on Oct. 13, scoring a season-best 24 points. They have averaged just 10.8 PPG in four games at home this season, with the 'under' 3-1 in their four games at MetLife. For the G-Men, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 on the road - although this game is obviously in their very same building where they play their home games, just a different locker room. At MetLife they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18, hitting the 'under' in four of five. The only over at MetLife came last week against the aforementioned Cowboys, who manhandled the G-Men 37-18. Of course, that game was fortunate to go over, as there was a scoop and score with six seconds to flip the total to over.

Detroit at Chicago: The total has dropped from an open of 43.5 to 41.5, perhaps because the 'under' has cashed in four of the past six battles in this series. While that's all well and good, the 'over' has hit in each of the past two battles at Soldier Field, including a 34-22 Bears win on Nov. 11 last season. The over has been hot for Detroit lately, hitting in three straight, and five of the past six. It's been a combination of two things, as Detroit has scored 22 or more points in six in a row for the Lions, while yielding 23 or more points in each outing. The Bears offense has been poor, posting 16 or fewer points in five of their eight games, hitting the 'under' five times this season. The Chicago defense is also ranked sixth overall, allowing just 18 PPG.

Carolina at Green Bay: The Packers laid a huge egg last week on the road against the Chargers, scoring just 11 points. They nearly ended up in single digits except for a late touchdown and two-point conversion. They'll be glad to be back at Lambeau where they have totals of 21, 27, 27, 23 and 42, hitting the over in three of the past four. For the Panthers, the venue hasn't mattered lately, as they have cashed the over in four straight, and six of eight overall. The offense has produced 30 or more points three of the past four, and the defense has yielded 20 or more points in seven of eight this season. The key to this game will be two-fold. Carolina's pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL, so QB Aaron Rodgers faces a tough task. Green's rush defense is a dismal 24th in the league, so they'll have a difficult time slowing down RB QB Christian McCaffrey.

L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: The Rams team total is 23.5, and they have hit that in three of the past four games. They're coming off a bye, and they have scored 30 and 51 in head coach Sean McVay's two games off a bye. The Rams have hit the under in six of their past eight games on the road, and the under is 5-1 in the past six on a grass surface, too. The Steelers enter this game as a home underdog for the second time this season. They lost 26-23 to Baltimore back on Oct. 6, one of three over results in the first eight games. For Pittsburgh, the under is 7-3 in their past 10 on a grass surface, although the over has hit in five of the past seven against winning teams, and 14 of their past 20 games at Heinz Field overall. Of course, a good chunk of those games were with Big Ben, Antonio Brown, etc. - guys not on the field in this one.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 10, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 44 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): QB Matt Ryan is back for the Falcons just in time for this NFC South battle. It hasn't made a lot of difference for the Falcons this season, as they're just 1-7 SU. However, their defense has been horrific, allowing 20 or more points in all eight contests, including 27 or more in each of the past four. Both teams are coming off the bye, and the over is 9-4 in Atlanta's past 13 off a bye, while the over is 10-3 in the past 13 for New Orleans following a rest. In the past six games at home following a bye, the Saints have averaged 43.1 PPG with the over cashing in six in a row and the Saints covering each outing with wins by an average of 16 PPG. In this series, however, the under is 3-1 in the past four meetings, including 2-0 in New Orleans.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals actually played the Ravens tough in the first meeting on Oct. 13, falling 23-17 in an 'under' result as Cincinnati got the late backdoor on a rushing touchdown by QB Andy Dalton. The 'Red Rifle' isn't coming through that door this week, as QB Ryan Finley makes his first NFL start, and he has had two weeks to prepare with the Bengals coming off a bye. Matt Blunt discusses this game in even further detail in his Hot or Not Report - Week 10. The total is down to 44.5 from an open of 46.5.

Miami at Indianapolis (4:05 p.m. ET): The Dolphins have resembled an NFL-caliber team in the past four games, averaging 19.3 PPG across the past four games on offense after averaging just 6.5 PPG in the first four. Defensively, they have even shown some improvement, allowing just 23.4 PPG in the past four after yielding 40.5 PPG in the first four. They might catch a break, as QB Jacoby Brissett's (knee) injury has him listed as 'questionable' for Sunday. If Brissett doesn't play, QB Brian Hoyer is a downgrade, but not much. He tossed three TDs in Brissett's stead last week. The Colts offense has posted 27, 24, 30 and 15 in four home games, hitting the over three times.

Under the Lights

Minnesota at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football tussle has inched up from 47 to 48, although trends are leaning under. That's a surprising move considering both sides rank in the Top 10 in total defense and scoring defense. The under is 9-2 in Minnesota's past 11 against NFC opponents, and 6-2 in their past eight on the road. Remember, the Vikings are coming off a loss, and they have held opponents to 14 and 10 points following setbacks. For Dallas, it's all over all the time, hitting in seven of their past nine against the NFC, and 8-3 in the past 11 overall.

Seattle at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The total has moved from 45 to 47 for this highly-anticipated Monday nighter and NFC West showdown. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 12.8 PPG, but they haven't exactly faced a who's who of quarterbacks. QB Russell Wilson is the league's best passing quarterback this season, posting a 118.2 QB rating. If you bet the trends in this series, you lean under based on the past five of seven at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara going under. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall in this series.

 

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 10
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bills at Browns (-3, 40) ? 1:00 PM EST
Heading into this season, the expectation was Cleveland would be 6-2 through eight games and Buffalo could be 2-6. However, those predictions were off-base as the Bills (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) have eyes on a Wild Card berth after limiting their sixth opponent to fewer than 17 points in last Sunday?s 24-9 rout of the Redskins. Buffalo cashed as 10 ?-point favorites, marking its first cover in the chalk role since Week 2. The Bills have taken care of their business away from Orchard Park this season by compiling a 3-0 SU/ATS road record, while cashing the UNDER in all three victories.

The Browns (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) have dug themselves a major hole halfway through the season as Cleveland lost its fourth straight game in last Sunday?s 24-19 defeat at Denver as four-point favorites. The Cleveland offense has been held to fewer than 20 points in five of eight games, while the Browns are still seeking their first home victory of 2019. Browns? quarterback Baker Mayfield didn?t throw an interception in a game for the first time this season, but the top pick of the 2018 draft hasn?t posted more than one touchdown pass in a game in 2019.

Buffalo has put together a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the underdog role this season, while covering in five of the last six opportunities when receiving points since 2018. The Browns are expected to get a boost offensively as running back Kareem Hunt will see his first action of the season following an eight-game suspension. The Bills have captured the last two meetings with the Browns in 2014 and 2016, while Buffalo makes its first visit to Cleveland since 2013.

Best Bet: Browns 20, Bills 19

Panthers at Packers (-4 ?, 47) ? 4:25 PM EST
Following its worst performance of the season in a 51-13 drubbing at undefeated San Francisco, the Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) rebounded nicely in last Sunday?s 30-20 home victory over the Titans. The final score was a bit misleading as Carolina jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead, while the Panthers built a commanding 30-17 advantage on Christian McCaffrey?s third touchdown of the game. McCaffrey has reached the end zone in six consecutive games, while the Panthers improved to 5-1 SU/ATS with Kyle Allen starting at quarterback.

The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) put together their worst overall effort of the season in last week?s 26-11 setback to the Chargers. Green Bay didn?t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, but the Packers already trailed at that point, 26-3. It was ugly all around for the Pack as Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-low 161 yards, while Green Bay rushed for 45 yards. The Packers have won four of five games at Lambeau Field this season, as Green Bay tries to improve on a 9-3-1 home mark since the start of 2018.

Carolina has hit the OVER in four consecutive games, as the Panthers have topped the 40-point mark in four of six contests started by Allen. The Panthers have captured the last two meetings with the Packers since 2015, while Carolina is visiting Lambeau Field for the first time since a 38-17 defeat in 2014.

Best Bet: Packers 28, Panthers 20

Rams (-4, 43) at Steelers ? 4:25 PM EST
Los Angeles (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) is back from the bye week after taking care of winless Cincinnati in London, 24-10 as 12-point favorites. The Rams have fixed their defensive woes since allowing a combined 85 points in a two-week stretch to Tampa Bay and Seattle as Los Angeles has yielded a total of 40 points the past three contests. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have posted an incredible 17-4 road record, including a perfect 5-0 away mark against AFC foes.

Following a rough 0-3 start, the Steelers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) have come back to life by winning four of the last five games. Although two of those victories came against teams with a combined one win (Miami and Cincinnati), Pittsburgh knocked off the Chargers on the road, while edging the Colts last Sunday, 26-24. The Steelers have lit up the Heinz Field scoreboard this season by scoring 26, 27, 23, 27, and 26 points in five home games.

Pittsburgh has excelled in the underdog role since getting thumped at New England in the season opener by compiling a 3-0 ATS mark when receiving points, while going 5-1 ATS overall the last six games. The Rams are 10-1 the last three seasons against interconference opponents as the lone loss came in last season?s Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Best Bet: Rams 30, Steelers 21

BEST TOTAL PLAY
Under 43 ? - Dolphins at Colts

Miami has played much better the last few weeks in spite of picking up only its first win of the season last Sunday against the Jets. The Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts, who will start Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of the injured Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have cashed the OVER in three of four games at Lucas Oil Stadium, while limiting three of their past four opponents to one offensive touchdown. Miami?s second half struggles have continued by posting a grand total of 12 points in the last three games after halftime.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

You wouldn?t think a team laying two touchdowns that has won six straight games is trap material, but the Saints are in their heavy favorite position on Sunday against the rival Falcons. Atlanta has been a train wreck this season at 1-7, while its defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL. Both these teams are off the bye, which could benefit the struggling Falcons, while the streaking Saints need to reset their focus. The Falcons have split their last four visits to New Orleans and will get Matt Ryan back in the lineup after missing the Seattle loss two weeks ago with an ankle injury.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

To no one?s surprise, the Chiefs moved from a 3 ?-point favorite last Sunday night at Tennessee up to a six-point favorite when news came out that Patrick Mahomes will return to the Kansas City lineup. Last season?s MVP has missed the last two games with a dislocated kneecap sustained in the Week 7 victory at Denver, as the Chiefs are fresh off a last-second victory at Minnesota. The Titans haven?t been listed as a home underdog this season, while the Chiefs own a perfect 4-0 record away from Arrowhead Stadium.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

The Buccaneers are playing their first game at Raymond James Stadium since Week 3 against the Giants. Tampa Bay has spent the last five games on the road, including a ?home? matchup with Carolina in London last month. The Bucs host the Cardinals as Tampa Bay last won at Raymond James in Week 13 of last season against the Panthers. Arizona has been one of the more surprising teams in the league as the Cardinals have posted a solid 6-2 ATS mark in the underdog role.

 

[Udog]

SNF - Vikings at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's hard to deny that last week's SNF game between the Patriots and Ravens had a playoff-like feel to it, as Baltimore was well prepared from the get-go and made a point to be the first NFL team to knock off New England since last December. More importantly though, that game cashed the 'over' play with relative ease, as it's now three straight weeks of essentially no doubt winners for this piece. You never want to get too cocky in your approach though as that's typically when the bounces start going against you.

Speaking of that, this week's SNF game features the Dallas Cowboys in prime time for the second straight week, as apparently the DB's on the Cowboys feel like their teammates on the special teams units need all the reps they can get. For someone like myself who was holding an 'under' ticket on MNF, to see that strip sack fumble scoop and score with less then 30 seconds was crushing. Had the Dallas DB simply fallen on the ball, it would have been one knee and the game was over.

Instead, he subjected his teammates (and himself) to run nearly the length of the field for the TD (and celebration) forced the extra point team to go out there and taken another hit, and the same with the kickoff team as well. Obviously it is what it is, but when you are on the wrong side of those bounces you think of things in that light and how the guy should have done something differently. But at the same time, him having a scoop and score TD in his stats ? no matter the time of game ? is something that can help him earn a few more dollars on a potential next contract so it's important to look at both sides of the coin, and as I like to say, ?context matters.?

This week the Cowboys are back at home and hosting a Minnesota team that coughed up a late lead in KC last week. The Vikings have to still be having some buyer's remorse feelings with QB Kirk Cousins and his passing ability, but at 6-3 SU everything's still out in front of him. Can he and his teammates bounce back yet again ? they are 2-0 SU and ATS when coming off a SU loss this year ? or will the Cowboys keep on cashing tickets in their third straight prime time appearance?

Total Talk

This number has held steady at it's opening status of 48 all week, and to me, there isn't really a discernible way to approach this total from either perspective. Yes, going 'over' the total has worked out for these SNF games the past two weeks after the run of 'unders' we had to start the year, but that also doesn't mean we are going to get a nice streak of 'overs' going forward either.

And while the scoop and score late TD by Dallas last week was painful for 'under' bettors like myself, truth be told the 'over' in that game was the right side to be on. There were missed FG's early, both teams settled for too many FG's (especially New York) early, and it really was an up-and-down game for the entirety. Obviously Minnesota's defense brings much more resistance to this game then what the Giants defense has, and you've got to take that into consideration, but with Dallas putting up 37 points in consecutive weeks, do they really cool off that much? Yes, those point totals by the Cowboys were largely aided by turnovers and that's unlikely to continue at a similar pace, and coming off two consecutive division games should dull the intensity from the Dallas perspective, but both sides have cashed 'over' tickets in three of their last four games respectively as well.

Generally speaking, when both sides are coming off the same total result like Minnesota and Dallas are with 'overs' this week, I do like to look the other way, and if forced to make a play on this total, it would be on the low side of this total. And while it's never good to let past results creep into influencing your future bets, there probably is some residue left on my brain from the way last week's 'under' in the Dallas game finished in terms of me wanting to pull the trigger on it again this week. That would be the only way I'd look on this total, but sometimes a ?bet saved is as good as money made,? and passing on this total is the end result.

Side Spiel

Just like the total, this point spread has held steady at it's original number of Dallas (-3) for the majority of the week. You do tend to hear/read more support for the Vikings as there are plenty in the industry who like to quote Minnesota's ATS record in the Mike Zimmer era (57-34-1 ATS) and as an underdog (22-14 ATS). Both of those numbers sit at over a 60% cash rate and that's definitely better then good in this business. Zimmer's Vikings have not failed to cover the number three times in a row during the regular season since late-October through early-November of 2016, and coming off two failed covers, that does appear to make sense to some degree here.

Adding support to that argument is the case that Dallas is off of two consecutive division games which is always theorized as a potential 'letdown' spot, and Dallas just continues to have plenty of detractors in general. A very soft schedule plays into that as the only winning teams currently that they've faced this year are New Orleans, Green Bay, and Philly, and the Cowboys went 1-2 SU and ATS in those games respectively. So that's the general consensus it seems in the market this week that Dallas is in another great spot to be bet against, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

For one, while those same Zimmer supporters are likely to fall on the side of ripping/questioning Dallas HC Jason Garrett's skills at his job ? which at times do deserve to be questioned ? I believe they are missing a huge chunk of the bigger picture in terms of how they view Zimmer. That's because for years I've always had a tough time backing any coach that comes from the Marvin Lewis coaching tree.

Lewis was a guy in Cincinnati who was as predictable as they come in offensive play calling ? run or take a deep shot on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then throw it over the middle to possession receiver on 3rd and medium/long ? and always took the conservative approach when in doubt. It's why his Bengals teams were almost always doomed to mediocrity, and those coaches that stem from his coaching tree have similar tendencies. Minnesota falls right into that category this year, as they are so reliant on the success of RB like Dalvin Cook ? who the Chiefs essentially sold out to stop last week.

For whatever reason, Marvin Lewis disciples tend to always be great interviewers in that they get the head coaching jobs, but turn out to be suspect head coaches to say the least. The list of coaches on Marvin's coaching tree includes the already fired Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson, Vance Joseph, Mike Zimmer, and the Vikings head coach before Zimmer in Leslie Frazier.

I'm not sure why the Vikings kept going back to the Bengals coordinator well, but here they are, and like all those years where Marvin kept his Bengals job for far too long (he should have been let go amid the early stages of all those consecutive playoff losses), Zimmer's done just enough in Minnesota to keep his job for another year seemingly every season so far.

Zimmer's doing his best to break away from this disastrous coaching tree with those long term ATS results, and from a market perspective you can't argue with those long term numbers. But is ATS record when catching 3 points or less is 0-4 SU and ATS since the beginning of last year ? the start of the Kirk Cousins era - as just like his mentor Marvin Lewis, he can't win the 'big' or close games.

Dallas may have their own issues with Garrett and what he brings to the table, but context always matters, and everyone just prefers to overlook Zimmer and the Vikings recent history in these projected close games to opt for the overall ATS results as support. Remember, during those playoff seasons for Marvin Lewis' Bengals, Cincinnati always took care of business against the teams they should have, and could never get over the hump against equal or better competition like the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chargers etc. And you could say that's been the case for all of those coaches that stem from the Lewis coaching tree. Win the games you are supposed to, and choke in the games that are coin flips.

In the end, Zimmer is no different, and Minnesota ranks 31st in the league in passing completions per game (19.3). The only team that's worse then that are the Washington Redskins, who wouldn't you know it, started the year with the aforementioned Lewis disciple Jay Gruden. Are you starting to see the pattern yet?

Final Thoughts

Expressions like ?the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree? always have some element of truth to them even when misapplied. That's how I view Mike Zimmer and his coaching prowess, and I just don't see how you can back the Vikings against any team that's got a winning record if they aren't catching upwards of +4.5 points or more. Bettors will comment on how soft the Cowboys schedule has been, but when Minnesota's got wins over Atlanta, Oakland, NY Giants, Philly, Detroit, and Washington, how much better is there resume really? My thoughts on Philly were well laid out a few weeks ago when Dallas last had a SNF game, and every other team there has a losing (or .500) record currently as well.

I don't know what it is about the Cowboys this year in that it's seemingly impossible for them to earn a level of respect from the markets they definitely deserve. Maybe it's that loss to the Jets that still sticks out in everyone's mind that's leaving plenty of residue on their thought process in terms of even considering backing the Cowboys. Who knows? But I'll gladly take advantage of that perception when it fits.

But just like two weeks ago when the Cowboys were laying this number at home against the Eagles, this number against the Vikings is still rather short. The Cowboys defense should be able to gear up to eliminate RB Dalvin Cook from finding significant success like the Chiefs did, and go on to win this game with relative ease like they did vs Philly. Maybe then we will start to see Dallas getting some respect from more in this industry going forward.

Best Bet: Cowboys -3

 

[Udog]

NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes sat out two games after dislocating his knee, but he's back this week at Tennessee. The midweek news that he'd likely play moved the line from Chiefs -4 to -6.5.

NFL Week 10 will apparently include the playmaking stylings of one Patrick Mahomes. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: After suffering a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 win at Denver, Mahomes missed the last two games, and Kansas City split those two contests. He?s back for Sunday?s game at Tennessee. ?Mahomes is playing, so we actually went up to -6.5 on the Chiefs,? Osterman told Covers, noting the line opened -3.5, went to 4 early in the week, then made the big jump once it was clear Mahomes would return. ?He?s worth more than the 2.5-point move, but the line was already shaded that way because he was practicing.?

The line ticked down to 6 on Friday afternoon, and Osterman isn?t sure if the public can take it to 7. ?There?s a chance the Chiefs get to -7, but I doubt it. There will be enough takers at 7 to keep it at 6.5.?

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Running back David Johnson (ankle/back) will return at Tampa Bay after missing two games. But that wasn?t a needle-mover, since the Cards acquired Kenyan Drake from Miami last month. ?No move for Johnson.? Arizona is a 5-point underdog, with the total at 52.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) returns after missing a Week 8 loss to Seattle, then getting the benefit of the bye week. But he was expected back at New Orleans. ?The line would be over Saints -14 if he wasn?t playing.? The Falcons are +13.5, with a total of 51.5.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Quarterback Lamar Jackson was under the weather midweek, but he practiced Friday and expects to play at Cincinnati. ?This game might drop a couple of points if he didn?t play, but nothing too crazy.? The Ravens are -10.5, with a total of 44.5.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Quarterback Jacoby Brissett got knocked out last week?s game at Pittsburgh with a knee injury, and he?s questionable this week against Miami in what will apparently be a game-time decision. ?If Brissett plays, I would expect this line to go up by about a point to a point-and-a-half.? The Colts are -11.5, down from the opener of -13, with a total of 44.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable at home against the Rams, due to a toe injury. Osterman said if Schuster plays, it?d be worth a half-point. The Steelers are 4-point pups, with a total of 43.5.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Wideout Amari Cooper (ankle/knee) is questionable for the Sunday nighter against visiting Minnesota. That?s another one that would be worth a half-point, Osterman said. The Cowboys are laying 3, with a total of 48.


Weather Watch

CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY: Sunday?s high is only in the mid-30s, and this is among the later kickoffs at 4:25 p.m. ET, about an hour before sunset. Along with winds out of the north at 11 mph, much of this game will likely be played below 30 degrees. ?The total has started to creep down. We opened 48, down to 47.?

KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE: The weather should generally be mild, but there could be a little wind. ?The total has come up some, but I wouldn?t be surprised to see that come down a little bit before kickoff.? The total opened at 48.5 and climbed to 49.5.

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: It?ll be cloudy, with wind blowing in the mid-teens. But so far, that?s led to no adjustments, with the Browns -3 and a total of 40.
Pros vs. Joes

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: The Browns opened -2.5 Sunday and have been at -3 since Monday night. ?The public has come in on the Bills, and the sharps are all over the Browns.?


Reverse Line Moves

ARIZONA AT TAMPA BAY: ?We?re seeing money come in on Tampa Bay, but we?ve gone from Bucs -5.5 to -5.? In fact, the Buccaneers spent a couple days midweek at -4.5.

DETROIT AT CHICAGO: ?The Bears opened -3.5, and we?re down to -2.5 (-120), but we haven?t really seen much Lions support to back up that move.?

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: Along with it pitting the sharps against the public, this game went from Browns -2.5 to -3, despite more money showing on the Bills.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................14-12-0..........53.84%..........+4.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals......................7 - 3............+18.50.............3 - 7...............-23.50............-4.00


*******************************

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 10 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Cardinals +4.5 (794)

5) Bills +3 (848)

4) Cowboys -3 (863)

3) Rams -3.5 (1,083)

2) Seahawks +6.5 (1,115)

1) Chiefs -3.5 (1,750)

2019 record: 25-27-2

Quote of the Day
?We?ve finally got the tools that we need to beat those guys. To have a championship team, you?ve got to have a championship quarterback.?
LSU football coach Ed Orgeron

Sunday?s quiz
Who was LSU?s football coach the last time they beat Alabama?

Saturday?s quiz
Bobby Hurley played most of his NBA career (242 of 269 games) for the Sacramento Kings.

Friday?s quiz
Rich Gannon was the Raiders? QB the last time they played in a Super Bowl.

*****************************

Sunday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday??..

13) LSU 46, Alabama 41:
? LSU scored a total of 10 points against Alabama the last three YEARS; they led this game 33-13 at halftime.
? This is LSU?s first win over the Crimson Tide since 2011.
? LSU?s offensive coordinator Joe Brady will be a head coach SOMEWHERE very soon, whether it be in college or the NFL. He has done an amazing job with the Tigers? offense.

83-year old John Robinson, the highly successful USC/Rams? coach, is a consultant with the LSU program; he knows Ed Orgeron from when Orgeron worked at USC- Robinson?s wife is from New Orleans. Was good to see coach Robinson smiling; was lucky enough to meet him for a few minutes at Rams? training camp in 1986? good guy.

12) Alabama QB Tagovailoa was 21-40/418 with four passing TD?s despite his mobility being hampered by an injured leg.

Can a one-loss Alabama team that won?t be in the SEC title game make the 4-team national playoff? Gonna be lot of arguing about that one.

11) Oklahoma 42, Iowa State 41? Sooners led 35-14 at halftime, but Cyclones stormed back, scored a TD with 0:24 left and went for 2 points and the lead instead of kicking a tying PAT, which re-ignites a pet peeve of mine.

? Recruiting is the lifeblood of college sports.
? You?re the underdog and you?re playing well against a national power.
? The game is on national TV.
? Recruits are at home watching this game, because it is on national TV.

? You keep this game going as long as you can, so recruits can learn to like you.
? The pressure to win this game was all on Oklahoma.
? Spunky underdogs are heroic, and Iowa State was spunky in this game.
? If your QB is a great runner, I?d be more open to going for the two points.

10) Baylor 29, TCU 23 OT? There were no touchdowns scored in regulation time; Horned Frogs led 9-0 at halftime, but Baylor kicked a 51-yard FG with 0:36 left, then won the game in the third OT.

Fun game to watch; tough game to lose. Baylor is 9-0; four of the Bears? six Big X wins were by 3 or fewer points, or in OT. TCU is 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.

9) Minnesota 31, Penn State 26? Minnesota is 9-0 for the first time since 1904; they averaged 16.95 yards every time they threw the ball in this game. USC and Florida State jobs are open, and coach PJ Fleck signed a long-term contract extension with the Golden Gophers? Why?

Fleck and his wife have four kids; do these kids not like warm weather? None of my business, but walking on the beach seems like a hell of a lot more fun than making snowmen, and it is a lot easier to recruit ballplayers in Florida/California than it is in Minnesota.

8) Western Kentucky 45, Arkansas 19? WKU?s QB Ty Storey started nine games for Arkansas LY, then transferred to WKU because he didn?t think he would start for the Razorbacks this year. Storey, a 6-2 senior from Charleston, Arkansas, was 22-32/219 passing, as the Hilltoppers improved to 6-4.

7) Football upsets:
? Tulsa (+16.5) 34, Central Florida 31
? Illinois (+15) 37, Michigan State 34
? California (+7.5) 33, Washington State 20
? Appalachian State (+7) 20, South Carolina 15
? Miami OH (+7) 24, Ohio U 21
? Minnesota (+6.5) 31, Penn State 26
? LSU (+6.5) 46, Alabama 41

6) Florida State 38, Boston College 31? BC had 31 first downs, converted 14-20 third down plays and still lost; FSU scored four TD?s, three on plays of 60+ yards, the 4th one on a 26-yard run. Both teams need another win to go bowling.

5) Illinois 37, Michigan State 34? Spartans led 31-10 in 4th quarter, but Illini stormed back with three TD?s, missing tying PAT with 4:53 left, then scoring winning TD with 0:05 left. Illinois is bowl eligible for first time under Lovie Smith.

4) Basketball upsets:
? Nicholls State 75, Pitt 70
? Southern Utah 79, Nebraska 78 OT

3) SMU 59, East Carolina 51? Not often you give up 51 points and win, but the Mustangs did and now they?re 9-1.

ECU?s WR Tyler Sneed caught 19 balls for 240 yards; ECU QB Holton Ahlers was 32-42/498 passing with six TD passes and his team lost.

2) SEC likes to promote itself as the #1 college football league in the country; ??.it just means more.? was their slogan for a while, and while they may be mostly right, check out these two scores before crowning the SEC this year?s King of the Hill:

? Western Kentucky 45, Arkansas 19
? Appalachian State 20, South Carolina 15

1) LSU goes to Ole Miss next week, Minnesota goes to Iowa. Those two teams were so happy wth their wins Saturday, but next week they?ve got huge trap games, especially the Golden Gophers.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


COOK TO SHOWCASE IN NFC BATTLE

The Minnesota Vikings will be without receiver Adam Thielen for their Sunday night game in Dallas. This could mean the league?s third-heaviest rushing team (32 rushes per game) may lean on Dalvin Cook even more against the Cowboys middle-of-the-pack rush defense.

Cook is averaging 23 rushes a game over his last three games and ran 23 times for 98 yards and had six targets in the only other game that Thielen sat out this year. Dallas has held teams to just 24 rushes per game but has only seen one top-10 DVOA rush offense this year.

In a game that has massive playoff implications, we expect the Vikings to do what they do best which is pound the ball. Take Cooks? Over 18.5 rushing attempts.


PAIR OF GB TDS

Yesterday, we wrote about the possibility of big points being scored at Lambeau field in Sunday?s Panthers/Packers game. Today, is a reminder to take advantage of a generous Carolina rushing defense as they have allowed nine rushing TDs over their last three weeks. They have also allowed receiving touchdowns to running backs in back-to-back weeks.

Packers running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are great touchdown plays as at least one of them has scored in every game since Week 2 and they have both scored in the same game in two of their last four games. Jones hasn?t had a rushing TD since Week 5, but has hauled in three TD passes since Week 7.

Jones is still seeing roughly 15 percent more snaps than Williams per game, but Williams has received 10 red zone touches to Jones? seven since Week 6 making Williams the more valuable of the two as he has also scored a TD in four straight games.

We are doubling down and taking the Williams AND Jones anytime TD.


SAMUELS A TARGET MONSTER

The latest news on the Pittsburgh Steelers? backfield is that James Conner and Benny Snell are out for the Week 10 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. This leaves early-down back Trey Edmunds who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday but practice Friday and Jaylen Samuels who led all running backs and was fifth overall in Week 9 with 13 targets.

Pittsburgh receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is also a game-time decision for the Sunday afternoon matchup and if he were to sit, that would make Samuels the No.1 receiving option for QB Mason Rudolph.

We like Samuels' Over receptions on any total below six as the Rams allow the seventh fewest passing yards to RBs which scares us on the RB?s yardage total.


COLTS CAN?T SLEEP ON DOLPHINS

Who is going to score for the Indianapolis Colts? That is a question we have been asking ourselves this week after checking players? availability for Sunday?s game against the recently unstoppable Miami Dolphins.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett isn?t a lock to play Sunday and is a game-time decision as of Friday night. Even if he does dress, he will be without top receivers T.Y Hilton and Paris Campbell. The Colt?s game plan will probably feature a heavy dose of Marlon Mack, especially if 34-year-old QB Brian Hoyer takes the snaps again.

The Dolphins? defense has held opposing offenses to under 29 points in three of their last four games and have played competitively for the past month. Miami is allowing the 17th-least total yards since Week 7 which is an incredible improvement considering they are still the worst DVOA defense.

We see the Colts struggling to hit 29 points and are looking to play the Under team total of 28.5.


JACKSON?S RIDICULOUS RUSHING TOTAL

Last week was a great example of the closing line not always being the worst number to bet on. We had Lamar Jackson Over at an opening line of 61.5 rushing yards and that number fell to 58.5 right before kickoff on Sunday night. So you know where this is going, right? Jackson moonwalked to 61 yards and handed us the L. We want to fade him this week, but the Cincinnati Bengals can't even come close to containing him.

Just check out these numbers in his two starts against his AFC North rivals: 19 rushes, 152 yards, TD (Week 6); 26 rushes, 119 yards (Week 10, 2018). Those are his third-most and most rushing yards in a game over his career. Lamar has amassed 1,193 rushing yards over his 15 regular-season starts and has 271 yards versus the Bengals in two games, or 23 percent of his total rushing yards in 12 percent of his games played.

Jackson is 5-0 O/U on his rushing total if you got the 58.5 last week. We are hitting the Over on his 75.5 rushing yards as the books are really pushing his number. Maybe we will look to fade next week, but for now, the matchup is in the Over?s favor.


SELLING THE SACK STREAK

Our sack streak has hit four straight games as we try to find the game of the week that will offer the most quarterback takedowns. This week we set our sights on the state of Nashville where the Titans will host the recuperated Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs pass rush has taken over since Week 7 as they have totaled 15 sacks. They will get to tee off on the Titans' 31st ranked offensive line and Ryan Tannehill who is getting sacked once every 8.35 pass attempts.

The Titans defensive line is no cakewalk, either. They are averaging just under 3 sacks a game and will face a limited Mahomes who had been getting sacked once every 17 pass attempts in the three games before going down with a knee injury. The KC O-line also allowed Matt Moore to get sacked five times in Week 9.

The line will most likely be set at 6.5 which is still a number that we are confident taking the Over on.


CHEERING FOR OFFENSE

Four teams are allowing four or more touchdowns a game over the last three weeks: the Oakland Raiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers. Looking on the offensive side of things, we see that six teams have averaged over three TDs a game over that same three-game stretch: the Detroit Lions, the Baltimore Ravens, the Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings, the Oakland Raiders, the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.

If we are looking to put our money on Over total touchdowns, common sense would push us to the Lions, but facing Mitch ?turn off the TVs? Trubisky is a little risky at 4.5 TDs.

We like the Panthers at Packers matchup much better as Aaron Rodgers? offense will look to bounce back in Lambeau after last week?s dud. The Panthers have allowed nine rushing TDs in their last three in what looks like a great matchup for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams and maybe worth sprinkling anytime TDs on both of them.

The Panthers? road games have not seen many field goals, especially recently. Carolina?s last three road games have had 22 total TDs scored with all three games getting at least seven. That includes games that were quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston.

The last game in Lambeau yielded nine total touchdowns and the cheese factory has produced 30 total TDs in five games this year. Take the Over 5.5 total TDs scored for plus money and sit back and cheer on both offenses.


MONDAY NIGHT 1Q PLAY

Don?t have time to watch the whole game but want some action? We got you, fam. No home team this week is scoring more points in the first quarter than the San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy?s boys are scoring nearly 10 points in the first 15 at Levi?s Stadium and have seen 31 total points scored in the first quarter over their last two home matches.

They will face the league?s 27th ranked DVOA defense in primetime on Monday night in the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have also seen plenty of early action. Most recently, 21 points in the first quarter last week against the Bucs.

Get on the Over 7.5 points for the first quarter and enjoy the MVP frontrunner taking on the league?s only undefeated team.


MAKING MONTY MOVES

David Montgomery has solidified his spot atop the Chicago Bears RB depth chart. The rookie runner has averaged 73 percent of the snap share over the last two weeks as Tarik Cohen has seen just 33 of 127 snaps (26%).

The big rise of his snap count has a lot to do with pass-catching ability. Monty has nine targets for seven catches and 48 yards since Week 8. The nine targets may indicate where Matt Nagy?s play-calling is headed as Montgomery had seen just 2.5 targets a game in Weeks 1 through 7.

On Sunday, the Bears will face a Detroit Lions defense that is surrendering the third-most receiving yards to running backs this year at 59.6 yards per game on eight catches. Saquon Barkley hit the Lions for 8-78-1 in Week 8 and they have also given up at least 25 yards receiving to Jamaal Williams, Darrel Williams, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler and David Johnson.

Get on Montgomery?s Over 22.5 receiving yards as Mitch Trubisky uses his check-down option all game long.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 10
November 10, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Chiefs at Titans (-6.5/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Patrick Mahomes is set to return and will have the doctor with him on the offensive line. Laurent Duvernay-Tarif is back from an ankle sprain and there?s hope that defensive end Frank Clark will play, so the Chiefs are definitely getting healthier and will have overcome a really dangerous point in the season if things stabilize going forward. Holding off the Vikings last week was crucial, especially when you consider Oakland?s success on Thursday night. Mahomes will look to hit the ground running against a pass defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in yards allowed and come off surrendering a season-high 30 points to Carolina. With a bye on deck, it?s worth wondering if this team is running on fumes given the late bye coming up next week.

Tennessee is down WR Corey Davis and TE Delanie Walker, so A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith will be asked to step up. Center Ben Jones has cleared concussion protocol and will play. The defense is down DT Jurrell Casey, LB Jayon Brown and corner Malcolm Butler, who broke his wrist in the Titans? loss to the Panthers. Expect a big second half from this group once the coaching staff figures out where to attack a depleted secondary since having to account for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is a puzzle that doesn?t really have a solution. It?s set to be a sunny day in Nashville, so conditions should be favorable for Mahomes to flourish in his return and Ryan Tannehill to try and match him as he looks to stay unbeaten in home starts.

Bills at Browns (-3/41), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Last week was definitely rock-bottom for Cleveland, which expected to go out to Denver and beat a first-time starting quarterback in order to spark a resurgence but were instead handed another heartbreaking loss. The Browns now carry a four-game losing streak into this one and realistically have no room for error if they?re going to reach their preseason goal of making the playoffs. First-year head coach Freddie Kitchens has proved inept in his in-game decision-making, so don?t look for Cleveland fans to let this team off the hook if it gets down early, which makes this a situation where being at home ends up being a disadvantage. Both of the Browns? wins this season have come on the road against the Jets and Ravens.

Buffalo is perfect on the road thus far and visits Miami next week, so they can really set themselves up to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East instead of just rolling over after the halfway point and chasing the wild card. Baker Mayfield will have to deal with a secondary that should have corner Kevin Johnson and safety Kurt Coleman in play with both cleared to take the field next to Tre-Davious White, one of the league?s top DBs. Josh Allen may be able to take advantage of a Browns? secondary that could be missing free safety Damarious Randall, who may be held out with a hamstring issue. Wind gusts that could reach 20 mile per hours will make it feel like temperatures are in the high 30s.

Cardinals at Bucs (-5.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Bruce Arians has downplayed facing the Cardinals, and outside of squaring off with Larry Fitzgerald and a few other holdovers, the nature of the league featuring so much turnover makes it a little easier than it would be squaring off against former employers in other sports. The Bucs aren?t going to make the playoffs, so this is all about continuing to gain trust in the offense and Jameis Winston against a secondary featuring Patrick Peterson and a defense that has posted 18 sacks and will be looking to add to Tampa Bay?s league-high 18 giveaways.

Winston has been hit-or-miss all season due to his propensity for miscues but he has thrown for at least 301 yards in five of his last six outings but has fumbled in four straight. After seven interceptions in a two-game span, he wasn?t picked off in last weekend?s OT loss in Seattle and will have tight end O.J. Howard back as another receiving option after he?s ready to return from a hamstring issue. The Bucs will face rookie Kyler Murray without DE Carl Nassib, LB Anthony Nelson and CB Carlton Davis. They?ll have to deal with RB David Johnson, who now joins forces with Kenyan Drake to suddenly give Arizona its most dynamic look yet. Clear conditions and temperatures in the 80s await in Central Florida.

Giants (-3/44.5) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Outside of New York, no one really cares about determining which of these bad football teams is less terrible but rest assured bragging rights do play a large role here. These teams don?t share a training facility, but they do inhabit the same stadium and compete for the same space in the tabloids. Nobody wants to be the team mocked on Monday morning. The fact both have young quarterbacks that the franchises view as the future at the position for the next decade makes it compelling to see whether Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones can snap out of their recent funk. Darnold has developed an affinity for throwing the ball to the other team while Jones has a fumbling problem, so the headlines have written themselves of late.

The Giants come into this one without WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) and TE Evan Engram (foot), so look for rookie Darius Slayton to continue serving a larger role next to Golden Tate. The Jets will have Le?Veon Bell available despite listing him as questionable with ankle and knee ailments, so he?s likely in line for a workhorse role. Tight end Chris Herndon is going to play too, while tackle Kelvin Beachum is also back. Both teams are going to missing starting centers Ryan Kalil and Jon Halapio, further adding to the potential chaos. Inclement weather won?t pile on since clear conditions and light winds are expected on a 50-degree day at Met Life Stadium.

Lions at Bears (-6.5/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Matthew Stafford was advised not to risk playing through a back issue, so this must-win game for both teams now decisively favors host Chicago and the line has moved four points on Sunday morning, shifting from 2.5 to 6.5 with backup Jeff Driskel set to make his first start with the Lions. The former Bengals backup is among the NFL?s speediest quarterbacks but has had accuracy issues keep him from securing a full-time starting job. He?ll have a pair of terrific receivers in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to work with but will be facing a talented defensive backfield and a Bears defense that will be looking to come after Driskel and take advantage of a depleted running back corps. Tight end T.J. Hockenson could have a solid day as a safety valve Driskel will have to use often. The Bears are hoping Mitchell Trubisky can straighten out his own accuracy issues to make better use of Allen Robinson, who had a terribly unproductive day last time out and will now be matched up against Darius Slay. Wind gusts of 15-17 miles per hour will make passing even more difficult for Driskel and Trubisky, so this could be a game where we see both scrambling often.

Dolphins at Colts (-10.5/43.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: With Jacoby Brissett ruled out due to a knee injury, the Colts will turn to Brian Hoyer to try and stay afloat after he put them in position to win in Pittsburgh last week before an Adam Vinatieri miss at the gun. Chad Kelly will back up Hoyer, who is 16-21 in his career as a starter and is playing with his seventh team in 11 seasons. He?ll look to keep Miami?s modest streak at one game but won?t have the luxury of working with T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell, who have each been ruled out. Count on heavy use of Marlon Mack behind a big offensive line and perhaps a heightened role for tight end Eric Ebron, who has complained about his lack of use. Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers, rookie Ashton Dulin and the recently promoted Marcus Johnson will be Hoyer?s receivers.

Continuity isn?t a luxury the Dolphins bring to the table either. Ryan Fitzpatrick remains under center and has proven he gives Miami its best chance to win, but top WR Preston Williams was lost for the season last week and RB Mark Walton has been suspended for four games. Kelan Ballage is expected to get the bulk of the carries. Safety Reshad Jones has been ruled out, so the Dolphins? secondary is definitely vulnerable since CB Xavien Howard was already shelved. After winning unexpectedly for the first time last week, it remains to be seen how invested Miami is to chase wins that would adversely affect its draft position.

Rams (-4/43.5)at Steelers, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Jared Goff will have to work without one of his top receivers since Brandin Cooks is still dealing with a concussion. That should mean increased targets for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, who was the league?s most productive wideout the last time L.A. took the field in blowing out the Bengals in London. Todd Gurley will have his backup Malcolm Brown back from an ankle injury, which means L.A. will have a loaded backfield in place since explosive rookie back Darrell Henderson looks better acclimated.

The Steelers are looking for Mason Rudolph to continue his steady improvement but won?t have the luxury of RB James Conner being out there for him to lean on due to a nagging shoulder injury. Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds will handle the work, and you figure there should be a lot of it given the need to keep the ball away from the L.A. offense and the fact top WR Juju Smith-Schuster is nursing a toe injury. Rudolph has displayed good chemistry with rookie Diontae Johnson and college teammate James Washington, but they?ll be facing a secondary fortified by Jalen Ramsey. Guard Ramon Foster has been ruled out with a concussion, so the Steelers? offensive line isn?t going to be intact. A rainy day in Pittsburgh shouldn?t affect things here since conditions are supposed to dry up by kickoff.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at NO 01:00 PM
O 51.5 *****

BUF at CLE 01:00 PM
BUF +3.0
U 42.0 *****

NYG at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +3.0 *****
U 43.0 *****

BAL at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5 *****
U 44.0 *****

DET at CHI 01:00 PM
DET +6.5 *****
U 38.0

KC at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN +6.0 *****
U 48.5 *****

ARI at TB 01:00 PM
ARI +5.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

AFTERNOON BEST BETS:


MIA at IND 04:05 PM
IND -11.0
U 43.5 *****

CAR at GB 04:25 PM
CAR +4.5 *****

LAR at PIT 04:25 PM
PIT +4.0 *****
O 43.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

MIN at DAL 08:20 PM

DAL -3.0 *****

U 48.0 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday??

Titans 35, Chiefs 32:
? Mahomes threw for 446 yards in his return from injury.
? Chiefs lost four of their last six games.
? Tennessee ran ball 26 times for 225 yards; Henry had a 68-yard TD run.

? Titans are 5-0 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they do not.
? Tennessee won its last three home games by total of 10 points.
? All four Tannehill starts went over the total.

Browns 19, Bills 16:
? Buffalo missed 52-yard FG that would?ve tied game; they also missed a 34-yarder.
? Bills are 5-0 when they score 17+ points, 0-3 when they don?t.
? Seven of nine Buffalo games stayed under the total.

? Browns drove 82 yards on 10 plays for winning TD with 1:44 left.
? Cleveland was for first time in four home games.
? Browns outrushed Bills; they?re 5-11-1 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.

Buccaneers 30, Cardinals 27:
? Cardinals covered five of their last six games.
? Seven of 10 Arizona games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
? NFC West road underdogs are 8-1 ATS outside their division.

? Tampa Bay drove 64 yards in six plays for winning TD with 1:44 left.
? Bucs converted 7-15 third down plays, Arizona 1-10.
? Tampa Bay is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite

Jets 34, Giants 27:
? In their last four games, Giants allowed four TD?s on defense/special teams.
? Four of Giants? last five games went over the total.
? NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-8 ATS.

? Jets? safety Adams scored defensive TD, taking ball out of QB Jones? hands.
? Total yardage was 294-267 Jets; lot of points for so few yards.
? Jets? first two drives: 22 plays, 121 yards, two touchdowns.

Falcons 26, Saints 9:
? Atlanta snaps their six-game losing skid, gets first road win.
? Falcons are 2-9 ATS now in last 11 games a road underdog, 1-3 TY
? Atlanta covered seven of last nine post-bye games.

? Loss ends Saints? 6-game winning streak.
? Brees was sacked 6 times; Falcons came into game with only 7 sacks.
? New Orleans committed 12 penalties for 90 yards, 6 of which gave Atlanta a first down.

Ravens 49, Bengals 13:
? Baltimore had two defensive TD?s, has five in their last three games.
? Ravens won their last five games, scoring 30.0 ppg.
? Baltimore?s first three drives: 24 plays, 230 yards, three TD?s.

? Ravens? defense outscored Bengals? offense, 14-13.
? In their last two games, Cincy allowed 12.0/11.0 yards/ pass attempt.
? Bengals covered once in their last six post-bye games.

Packers 24, Panthers 16:
? Green Bay defense stopped McCaffrey at goal line on the last play.
? Carolina is 4-0 when they score 30+ points, 0-4 when they do not.
? NFC South road underdogs are 5-8 ATS outside the division.

? Jones ran ball 13 times for 93 yards, three TD?s.
? Rodgers threw for 233 yards, no TD?s; Packers converted 4-9 on 3rd down.
? Next week is Green Bay?s bye week, latest one they?ve ever had.

Bears 20, Lions 13:
? Lions? QB Stafford (back) missed his first start in 136 games.
? Detroit is 3-5-1, with four losses by 7 or less points.
? Backup QB Driskel was 27-46/269 in his 6th career start (1-5).

? Chicago?s first four drives: 15 plays, 25 yards, four punts.
? Bears converted only 2 of 12 third down plays, Lions 7-18.
? Win snaps Chicago?s four-game losing skid.

Dolphins 16, Colts 12:
? Miami has now led their last four games at halftime, winning last two.
? Dolphins covered their last five games.
? Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.

? Hoyer threw INT in end zone first series of game, setting tone for day.
? Hoyer completed only 18-39 passes, converted 5-13 third down plays.
? Both teams averaged under 5.0 yards/pass attempt, in a dome.

Steelers 17, Rams 12:
? Rams scored a defensive TD 0:14 into the game, their only TD of the day.
? Rams on 3rd down: in wins, 35-73 (47.9%), losses 8-45 (17.8%)
? LA?s last four games stayed under the total.

? Steelers won their last four games after a 1-4 start.
? Pitt is 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 3-0 TY
? Defenses scored 16 of the 29 points in this game.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................21-23-1.........47.72%..........-21.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals.....................11 - 7............+16.50...........5 - 13..............-46.50............-30.00


*******************************

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Today, Week 10
November 10, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Nov. 11

Seattle at San Francisco, 8:15 p.m. EST. The top two teams in the NFC West meet in primetime. The 49ers (8-0) snapped a 10-game skid vs. Seattle with a win in the second meeting last season. ... The Seahawks are 27-5-1 in prime-time games under Pete Carroll, including 8-2 on Monday nights. ... The Seahawks (7-2) are looking to win their first five road games for the first time in franchise history. ... San Francisco is off to its best start since winning its first 10 games in 1990. ... San Francisco joined the 2013 Chiefs as the only teams in the past 30 seasons to start 8-0 after winning four or fewer games in the previous season.

---

STARS

Passing

- Lamar Jackson, Ravens, was 15 for 17 for 223 yards and three touchdowns and a perfect QB rating of 158.3 and added 65 yards rushing, including a spectacular 47-yard TD run in Baltimore's 49-13 win over Cincinnati. Jackson joined Aaron Rodgers and Joe Montana as the only players with three TD passes, a TD run and a perfect passer rating with at least 15 completions in the Super Bowl era.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, was 36 for 50 for 446 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City's 35-32 loss to Tennessee.

- Kyler Murray, Cardinals, was 27 for 44 for 324 yards and three touchdowns and an interception in Arizona's 30-27 loss to Tampa Bay.

- Daniel Jones, Giants, finished 26 for 40 for 308 yards and four touchdowns in the Giants' 34-27 loss to the Jets.

---

Rushing

- Derrick Henry, Titans, had 23 carries for 188 yards and two touchdowns in Tennessee's 35-32 win over Kansas City.

- Aaron Jones, Packers, had 13 carries for 93 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay's 24-16 win over Carolina.

- Nick Chubb, Browns, had 20 carries for 116 yards in Cleveland's 19-16 win over Buffalo.

- Joe Mixon, Bengals, had 30 carries for 114 yards in Cincinnati's 49-13 loss to Baltimore.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 20 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown in Carolina's 24-16 loss to Green Bay.

---

Receiving

-Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, had 11 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City's 35-32 loss to Tennessee.

- Michael Thomas, Saints, had 13 catches for 152 yards in New Orleans' 26-9 loss to Atlanta.

- Christian Kirk, Cardinals, had six catches for 138 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona's 30-27 loss to Tampa Bay.

- Darius Slayton and Golden Tate, Giants. Slayton had 10 catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns and Tate added four catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns in the Giants' 34-27 loss to the Jets.

- D.J. Moore and Greg Olsen, Panthers. Moore had nine catches for 120 yards and Olsen added eight catches for 98 yards in Carolina's 24-16 loss to Green Bay.

---

Special Teams

- Younghoe Koo, Falcons, was 4 for 4 on field goals in Atlanta's 26-9 win over New Orleans.

- Jason Sanders, Dolphins, was 3 for 3 on field goals in Miami's 16-12 win over Indianapolis.

- Matt Gay, Buccaneers, was 3 for 3 on field goals and extra points in Tampa Bay's 30-27 win over Arizona.

- Wil Lutz, Saints, was 3 for 3 on field goals, accounting for all the Saints points in a 26-9 loss to Atlanta.

---

Defense

- Marcus Peters and Tyus Bowser, Ravens. Peters returned an interception 89 yards for a score and Bowser returned a fumble 33 yards for a touchdown in Baltimore's 49-13 win over Cincinnati.

- Jamal Adams, Jets, had two sacks, two forced fumbles and returned one of them 25 yards for a touchdown in the Jets' 34-27 win over the Giants.

- Minkah Fitzpatrick, Steelers, returned a fumble 43 yards for a touchdown and added a game-sealing interception in Pittsburgh's 17-12 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

- Rashaan Evans, Titans, returned a fumble 53 yards for a touchdown in Tennessee's 35-32 win over Kansas City.

- Dante Fowler Jr., Rams, returned a fumble 26 yards for a touchdown in the Los Angeles Rams' 17-12 loss to Pittsburgh.

- Grady Jarrett, Falcons, had 2+ sacks in Atlanta's 26-9 win over New Orleans.

---

MILESTONES

Ravens cornerback Marcus Peters had an 89-yard interception return for a touchdown in a 49-13 win over the Bengals. Along with Peters' 67-yard interception return for a touchdown in Week 7 and Marlon Humphrey's 70-yard fumble recovery touchdown in Week 9, Baltimore is the first team since 1970 to have a defensive touchdown of at least 65 yards in three consecutive games. Peters has returned six interceptions for touchdowns in his five-year career, tied with Hall of Famer Lem Barney (six) for the second most by a player in his first five seasons in league history. Only Hall of Famer Ken Houston (nine) had more. ... New York Giants rookie quarterback Daniel Jones had 308 yards and four touchdowns while Arizona rookie quarterback Kyler Murray passed for 324 yards and three touchdowns with one interception in Week 10. With Jones and Murray, Week 10 of the 2019 season is the first week in which two rookie quarterbacks each had at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes in NFL history. ... New York Jets safety Jamal Adams had two sacks, two forced fumbles and a 25-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown in the Jets' 34-27 win over the New York Giants. Since 2000, Adams is the sixth player to have two sacks, two forced fumbles and a touchdown in a single game, joining Cliff Avril (Week 8, 2011), Jason Gildon (Week 13, 2000), Orlando Scandrick (Week 5, 2019), Jyles Tucker (Week 17, 2007) and Mike Vrabel (Week 8, 2007).

---

STREAKS & STATS

The AFC North-leading Ravens (7-2) routed the Bengals 49-13 and have won five in a row for the first time since 2013 The Bengals (0-9) dropped their 11th in a row from the end of last season, tying the longest two-season losing streak in club history. They're one loss away from matching the worst start in club history. ... Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 1-8 all-time against Tennessee after the Chiefs lost 35-32 to the Titans. ... The Browns earned their first home win of the season with a 19-16 victory over the Bills. Stephen Hauschka's 53-yard missed field-goal attempt against the Browns with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter was his fifth consecutive miss from 50 or more yards. It's the longest active streak in the NFL. ... The Giants' skid reached six games after a 34-27 loss to the Jets. It's their first six-game skid since 2014. ... The Lions lost for the fifth time in six games after falling 20-13 at Chicago. ... The Buccaneers ended a four-game skid with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals. The Bucs played in their home stadium for the first time since Sept. 22. In between, they played four road games wrapped around a ''home'' game against Carolina in London and their bye week. ... The Falcons ended their six-game slide with a 26-9 victory over the Saints that ended New Orleans' six-game winning streak. ... After beating the Colts 16-12, the Dolphins (2-7) have consecutive victories for the first time since December, the third time in two seasons and their first road win since September 2018. ... The Steelers (5-4) topped the Los Angeles Rams 17-12 for their fourth straight victory.

---

SIDELINED

Kansas City's injury woes on the offensive line now has extended to ending the NFL's longest active snap streak for right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. The tackle played 7,894 consecutive snaps until late in the first half of Kansas City's 35-32 loss to Tennessee. He hurt a knee with 2:46 left in the second quarter when Patrick Mahomes was sacked by Harold Landry. Since he went down, Schwartz had to leave the field. He tried to walk it off but Martinas Rankin hurt his right knee a play later after sliding over to right tackle. ... The Giants had their own woes on the offensive line. They came into their game against the Jets without right tackle Mike Remmers and center Jon Halapio for the first time this season and the problem grew when left tackle Nate Solder sustained a concussion in the first half. He didn't return. New York also lost cornerback Janoris Jenkins to a concussion. ... Detroit had its own concussion issues as running back Ty Johnson and right tackle Wagner left the game because of the injury. Green Bay lost cornerback Tremon Smith and linebacker Ty Summers to concussions.

---

SPEAKING

''They were going crazy: `Oh my God! Oh! Oh.'' - Ravens linebacker Tyus Bowser on Lamar Jackson's dazzling 47-yard touchdown run in a 49-13 win over the Bengals.

---

''Four games is a long time. I just sat back. Just to be able to watch the guys (in the postgame celebration). ... They ended up doing some one-on-one dancing, which is pretty neat. It's exciting. We enjoy it. It brings you together.'' - Bears coach Matt Nagy after his team ended a four-game skid with a 20-13 win over Detroit.

 

[Cnotes53]

49ers prepare for test of facing Wilson
November 8, 2019
By The Associated Press

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) The priority when facing the Seattle Seahawks for years was figuring out how to deal with the Legion of Boom and that dominant defense.

Now the strength for Seattle is Russell Wilson and a dynamic passing offense, creating quite the interesting matchup when the Seahawks (7-2) visit San Francisco on Monday night to take on the 49ers (8-0) and one of the league's stingiest defenses.

''I used to love Russell when I was on his team, but he's been creating a lot of nightmares lately,'' said 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, a former assistant in Seattle. ''They're doing a really, really nice job and it's really cool the way those guys work together, because a lot of it is Russell starts scrambling. His throws on the run and all that stuff, his stuff out of the pocket and the way they're married together, and I know they practice it all, it's almost a play and then a play when he starts scrambling, which they work on. The way they've got that thing dialed in is what makes it very unique and what makes it special.''

San Francisco has completely shut down opponents over the first half of the season, ranking near the top of league in nearly every significant defensive category.

With a fierce pass rush led by rookie edge rusher Nick Bosa, offseason acquisition Dee Ford and inside pushers DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, have done a good job generating consistent pressure and rank tied for third in the league with 30 sacks.

When the pass rush hasn't gotten to the quarterback, the coverage in the secondary has been outstanding as well led by former Seahawks star Richard Sherman, who looks to be back to his elite shut-down form after working his way back last year from an Achilles' injury.

San Francisco has allowed a league-low 138.1 yards passing per game and is also best in the league with 241 yards allowed per game.

The Niners also rank best in the league in preventing touchdowns in the red zone, allowing them on less than one-third of trips inside the 20, have allowed the second fewest points per game (12.8) and rank tied for fourth with 16 takeaways.

But much of that came against some offenses that aren't considered among the league's elite with San Francisco beating winless Cincinnati in Week 2, Pittsburgh backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in his first start in Week 3, a dysfunctional Cleveland team the following game, a helpless Washington team in a downpour and another backup quarterback in Carolina's Kyle Allen.

The defense wasn't as sharp last week against rookie Kyler Murray and Arizona despite winning 28-25. San Francisco allowed a season-high in yards (357) and points, leaving Sherman especially salty.

''That was legitimately just not up to our standard of football,'' Sherman said. ''At the end of the day, I think just about everybody who's on our defense would say it. It's different between getting beat while executing and you not executing so you get beat. That was the problem in that game. We were getting beat because we weren't executing. ... I was legitimately upset because it wasn't to our standard of play.''

They'll have more tough tests like that in the second half of the season with a game against Wilson, a rematch with Murray, and matchups against Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson coming up in the next four weeks.

Wilson is one of the leading MVP candidates with 22 touchdown passes and only one interception so far and the Seahawks could be even more dangerous with the addition of big-play receiver Josh Gordon.

Wilson has tormented the Niners countless times over the years, winning 12 of his 15 starts against them, including the AFC championship game following the 2013 season.

With his ability to extend plays with his legs and turn what seemed to be negative plays into positive ones, the Niners know this won't be easy.

''He's one of the better guys at it,'' Buckner said. ''He's done it for a long time. He knows how to dodge guys in the pocket. He has a really good feel of getting his o-line back in places to really help defend him from guys trying to sack him. ... Playing against him for three years, sometimes you feel like you know his escape routes and stuff like that and he'll still end up making you miss. He made me miss a couple last year and I'm still thinking about that.''

NOTES: TE George Kittle missed his third straight practice with injuries to his knee and ankle and his status for the game remains in doubt. ... K Robbie Gould (quadriceps) also didn't practice. ... CB Ahkello Witherspoon (foot) got back to practice on a limited basis and will be a game-time decision.

 

[Cnotes53]

Preview: Seahawks (7-2) at 49ers (8-0)
Date: November 11, 2019 8:15 PM EDT

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Trash talking between Richard Sherman and Michael Crabtree. Barbs traded between coaches Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh. Incredible plays from Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.

The once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade capped by Seattle's epic win in the NFC title game in January 2014.

Now for the first time in years, this game between NFC West rivals means a lot again heading into Monday night's showdown between the Seahawks (7-2) and 49ers (8-0).

'We haven't held up our end of the bargain the last few years, but this is an exciting game,' said 49ers left tackle Joe Staley, one of the only remaining players in San Francisco from the heyday of this rivalry. 'There's a lot riding on this game. It's meaningful. But, at the same token, we can't look at it as anything different. One of the reasons why we've been successful is we haven't changed. We've been doing exactly what we've been doing all year from training camp to now, just continuing to do the same things.'

This is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014 where both teams have a winning record. Seattle won that game 19-3, prompting a Twitter apology to 49ers fans from CEO Jed York and a turkey celebration dinner for Wilson and Sherman at midfield of San Francisco's home.

Harbaugh was forced out following the season and the 49ers won just 17 games in the next four seasons, taking most of the steam out of the rivalry.

But now with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his first start against Seattle after missing both meetings last year with a season-ending knee injury in Week 3 and a much-improved defense in San Francisco, the 49ers have more than enough to match up with Wilson and the Seahawks in coach Kyle Shanahan's third season.

'They've come a long way in a short time, and Kyle's done a really nice job to turn the corner to get to this point,' Carroll said. 'Just judging off the last couple of years, they've always shown really good signs. This is a high-tech team, they're on their stuff; their schemes, their principles are really good. They've always been that, they just had trouble getting it all together and getting their wins but, they're together now. They really are sharp in all aspects of their team.'

AIR RAID

Seattle's pass defense used to be among the elite of the NFL. Now it ranks near the bottom of the league.

The Seahawks are giving up 278 yards per game through the air, ranking 28th in the league, and have been really bad in the past two games. Seattle gave up 460 yards passing to Matt Schaub and Atlanta two weeks ago, although the yards could be reasoned because the Seahawks built a 24-0 lead and the Falcons were forced to throw in trying to catch up.

Last week against Tampa Bay may have been more concerning. Jameis Winston was barely pressured by Seattle's meager pass rush and a quarterback with a knack for careless throws made none, throwing for 335 yards and two touchdowns.

Surprisingly, Seattle is 4-0 this year when allowing more than 300 yards passing, but those four wins are by a combined 15 points.

REPLACING KWON

The 49ers suffered a big loss last week when linebacker Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. Alexander had 34 tackles, one forced fumble, one interception and four pass breakups and was considered the heart and soul of the defense. Rookie Dre Greenlaw will replace him.

'Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him,' starting middle linebacker Fred Warner said. 'He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart.'

ESTABLISH CARSON

Seattle proved last week it can establish the run game against the best run defense in the NFL. Seattle rushed for 145 yards against Tampa Bay, led by 105 yards from Chris Carson, the first rusher to top 100 yards this year against the Bucs. When Carson is churning out yards, it creates more opportunity for Wilson to work off play-action. San Francisco is first in the NFL at stopping the pass but just 14th against the run. Getting Carson and backup Rashaad Penny going on the ground will be crucial for the Seahawks to stay away from troubling down and distance situations.

GETTING HEALTHY

The Niners should be getting several key pieces back this week, with left tackle Joe Staley expected to return from a broken leg that sidelined him in Week 2. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk could return from a knee injury and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee) also might be back.

KICKING IT

Seattle has said all the right things about supporting struggling kicker Jason Myers, but the Seahawks would prefer not to see Monday night come down to a crucial kick. Myers missed a pair of field goals and an extra point last week against Tampa Bay. He was wide left from 47 yards, wide right on the last play of regulation from 40 yards and hit the upright with one of his PATs. Myers is just 3 of 8 from 40 or more yards this season. Seattle signed Myers in the offseason to solidify its field-goal kicking, but there's much more inconsistency than expected from a Pro Bowl selection last season.

The Niners also have questions in their kicking game after Robbie Gould injured his quadriceps in practice Tuesday. The team signed Chase McLaughlin in case Gould can't play.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 10 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 5-7
Against the Spread 3-8-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-4-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 89-54-1
Against the Spread 60-81-3

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 77-66-1
Against the Spread 62-79-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 72-71-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) at Saints, 26-9
Dolphins (+11, ML +450) at Colts, 16-12
Titans (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Chiefs, 35-32
Steelers (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Rams, 17-12
Jets (+3, ML +130) vs. Giants, 34-27
Vikings (+3, ML +160) at Cowboys, 28-24

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Cowboys (-6.5) at Giants, 37-18
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20

Double-Digit 'Dogs BITE!

-- The Atlanta Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) stunned the New Orleans Saints in NOLA on Sunday during the 1:00 p.m. ET window, while the Miami Dolphins (+11, ML +450)...(hey, weren't they supposed to be tanking?)...shocked the Lucas Oil Stadium faithful with a 16-12 win against the Indianapolis Colts. It actually hasn't been that long since two double-digit underdogs won outright on the same day in the NFL, as the Dolphins and Giants accomplished the feat Oct. 15, 2017.

The Dolphiins had a little luck, as QB Jacoby Brissett was inactive due to a knee injury, but it's not like QB Brian Hoyer was some rookie nobody who hasn't played before. He tossed three touchdowns last week against a good Steelers defense. The 'Fins just came to play, and have won two in a row, as all of a sudden they look like an NFL-caliber team under head coach Brian Flores, who is putting his stamp on the team. After going 0-4 ATS in the first four games, the Dolphins now have a winning record against the spread, covering each of the past five outings.

The loss by the Saints might have been even more surprising, as QB Drew Brees looked good in his return last time out before the bye. Both of these teams had two weeks to prepare for each other, and head coach Dan Quinn likely bought himself more time as the head coach with the eye-popping win. The Falcons defense had shown no signs of an effective pass rush, or an ability to stop the pass, but they held the Saints to single digits in the points department. And that's why they play the games.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board were the Arizona Cardinals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5) and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (51.5). It was a mixed bag. The Cards-Bucs game was on a good pace from the start, and helped in large part due to a 20-point second quarter, with 10 points for each team. It wasn't a slam-dunk 'over', but a go-ahead touchdown by the Bucs with 1:43 clinched the winning ticket.

As far as the Falcons-Saints game was concerned, it got off to a slow start and never really threatened to go over. The teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Atlanta had two touchdowns in this game, but inexplicably, the Saints had none. Hey, sometimes it's better to lose one like this than by a half-point or on a bad beat.

There were three games -- the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers-Green Bay Packers -- which closed at 49. The Chargers-Raiders game ended up going over by a single point, and it was a bit of a bad beat. There were 37 points on the board until the Chargers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 4:02 to go, taking a 24-20 lead. The Raiders charged back and posted the game-winning touchdown with 1:02 to go.

For the Chiefs-Titans game, it was looking like a close shave at halftime, with a total of 26 on the board, tied 13-13. The teams combined for 16 points in the third quarter, and 25 points in an explosive fourth, as the this game finished as the highest-scoring game on the board. The other game, the Panthers-Packers game, was a close call. The snow picked up in the second half, but it didn't seem to affect the sides too much. Head coach Ron Rivera did go with the 'analytics', going for two down 24-16, eschewing the extra point. While there is debate, especially in the Twitterverse, on whether it was the right call, it definitely wasn't helpful to the over. They needed a touchdown and two-point conversion after it failed. However, had the gamble worked, they would have needed a touchdown and then just the point after for a push. Of course, none of that came into fruition.

The 'over' hit the first two primetime games of Week 10, coming on the heels of a three-game primetime 'over' sweep in Week 9. The Monday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) is still pending. The 'over' is just 11-19 (36.7%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (foot) left with a foot injury and was unable to return. The good news is that there were very few other major injuries across the board.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- The Steelers and Browns meet each other Thursday night on the shores of Lake Erie. It still isn't quite the rivalry it was in the past. It's now or never for the Browns. They won in Week 10 against the Bills, and they could get right back into the AFC wild card picture with a win, while dealing their rivals from the Steel City a tough blow with a win. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five appearances on Thursday, and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. The Browns are 5-21-2 ATS in the past 28 against winning teams, and 9-23-1 ATS in the past 33 at home. However, they are 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division and 6-2 ATS in the past eight appearances on a Thursday.

-- The Falcons host the Panthers on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, and not many figured Atlanta would be coming off a win in Week 10 in New Orleans, while Carolina would be coming in off a loss. Despite their outright win as a double-digit 'dog the Falcons are still 5-16 ATS in the past 21 road games. The Panthers are still 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven at home against Atlatna. The home team has covered in 10 of the past 13 in this series, too. The under is an impressive 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings overall, while the under is 17-5-2 in the past 24 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

-- The Bills look to rebound after their first loss on the road in Cleveland. The Dolphins picked up their first road win in Indianapolis. These teams met in Buffalo back in Week 7, with the Bills favored by 17. Miami covered in a 31-21 loss, and they're less than a touchdown 'dog at Hard Rock against the Bills. Can Miami make it three wins in a row as an outright underdog?

-- The Jaguars and Colts lock horns at Lucas Oil Stadium, and Indianapolis looks to bounce back after a stunning loss at home. The Jags, meanwhile, are coming off a bye. It's a super important game for the Colts, who just a couple of weeks ago won in Kansas City and were looking like a surprise team in the AFC. How quickly things change. The Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but 3-0-1 ATS in the past four coming off a bye. The Colts have covered five straight inside the division. Jacksonville has dominated this series lately, however, going 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four trips to Indy. The under is also 4-1 in the past five battles, and 7-1 in the previous eight in Indy.

-- The Saints have cashed in 23 of their past 31 games on the road, and they'll be looking to rebound after a stunning loss at home. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and they have failed to cover in four straight. Total bettors love the Bucs, as they 'over' is 7-0 across the past seven for Tampa.

-- The Cardinals hit the road looking to avenge a narrow Thursday night loss at home to the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, including 1-0 ATS against the Niners, and 5-1 ATS in the past six on the road. The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in the past four against the Cards, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home against Arizona. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings with the underdog 5-1 ATS in the past six in the series.

-- The Chiefs and Chargers will battle at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Monday night. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four Monday appearances, and 20-8 ATS in the past 28 against divisional foes. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. Kansas City has covered four of the past five in this series, too. The Raiders have appeared twice in this game previously, but neither of these teams have been the opponent. This is both the Chiefs and Chargers first appearance in Mexico. Kansas City was supposed to face the Rams last season, but they game was moved due to poor field conditions. As far as the totals, not much can be gleaned from the past two results, as the total is 1-1. Estadio Azteca is located at an elevation of 2195 meters, or 7,200 feet. That's nearly 2,000 feet higher than Denver, which both teams are more than familiar.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 11 opening odds and early action: Line moves toward Texans in battle vs Ravens
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and Baltimore bring a five-game win streak into a Week 11 home tilt against Houston. The Ravens opened -4.5 at The SuperBook, then dipped to -4 as the first move was toward the Texans

An AFC clash featuring two dynamic quarterbacks highlights the NFL's Week 11 schedule. We check in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)

Baltimore is two games clear of the rest of the AFC North and has an MVP candidate emerging at quarterback in Lamar Jackson. After handing New England its first loss, the Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 10.5-point faves and rumbled to a 49-13 victory Sunday.

Houston is atop a clogged AFC South, with all four teams within two games of each other. The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) had a bye in Week 10, after breezing by Jacksonville 26-3 catching 1 point on the road in Week 9.

?We opened Ravens -4.5 and moved down to -4,? Murray said. ?The Texans have been great in this position as a road underdog and are coming off their bye week. This is the best game of the morning slate by far.?

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)

New England had a well-timed bye this past week, following its first loss of the season, which actually ended a 13-0 SU (10-3 ATS) dating to last December. The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) tumbled to Baltimore 37-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 9.

Philadelphia is just a tick above .500 following its bye week, but is certainly in contention in the middling NFC East. The Eagles (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) topped Chicago 22-14 as a 5-point home favorite in Week 9.

Aside from a preseason meeting last year, this is the first time these two have met since the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl 52. Murray fully expects an overload of Patriots action.

?We opened it Patriots -3.5,? Murray said. ?Interesting game with both teams coming off their byes. The Patriots were exposed in a lot of ways by Baltimore. Books will need the Eagles huge.?

There were no line moves Sunday night, but the Patriots twice went to -3 (even), then back to -3 flat.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5)

Kansas City was thought to be the best shot to dethrone New England atop the AFC, but at 6-4 SU (5-5 ATS) faces a key Monday night showdown in Tinseltown. The Chiefs let a 29-20 fourth-quarter lead slip away in a wild finish at Tennessee, losing 35-32 as 5-point favorites Sunday.

Los Angeles hasn?t lived up to preseason expectations, but a win in this prime-time contest would put it right back in contention in the AFC West. In the Week 10 Thursday nighter, the Chargers (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) gave up a late touchdown at Oakland to lose 26-24 laying 1 point.

?The Chargers got a little banged up on Thursday in Oakland,? Murray said. ?The public will be all over the Chiefs, who will likely need to win to stay in first place, assuming the Raiders beat the Bengals on Sunday. The Chargers may as well play a home game out of the country. They don?t have any fans at their games in L.A. anyway.?

The line settled at Chiefs -4 late Sunday evening.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

San Francisco (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) still has Week 10 work to do, facing a tough Monday night task at home against Seattle. But the 49ers have very recent tape to work with for Week 11, having played at Arizona in the Week 9 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Niners got out to a 21-7 lead, then held on for a 28-25 victory giving 10.5 points.

Arizona is much more competitive than expected under rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray. The Cardinals (3-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) have played in seven one-score games, including Sunday?s 30-27 loss at Tampa Bay getting 5.5 points. Arizona is tied with Green Bay for the NFL?s best ATS mark.

?The Cardinals have been great ATS this season, especially as road ?dogs,? Murray said. ?These two teams just played, and the Cardinals moved the ball pretty well. We may see sharps on Arizona and squares on San Francisco here.?

 

[Cnotes53]

MNF - Seahawks at 49ers
Tony Mejia

Seattle at San Francisco (-6.5, 47.5), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Monday Night Football is finally putting on a game people should cancel plans for just to make sure they?re able to watch.

When the season began, neither of these teams were favored to win even the NFC West, so schedule-makers shouldn?t be taking a bow. In fact, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook had the 49ers at +180 to make the playoffs and the Seahawks at +135. They?re not in the business of giving away money, so few could?ve foreseen that the Week 10 finale would match two of the conference top-four. San Francisco (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) has already dominated once on the Monday stage and is the final remaining unbeaten. Seattle (7-2, 4-5) is off to its best start since opening 11-1 in 2013. The Seahawks, who ironically suffered their second loss that season at the Niners, went on to win the Super Bowl.

There?s a very good chance that one of these teams taking the field on what?s expected to be a clear, windy night in Santa Clara will end up in Miami for Super Bowl LIV.

The 49ers are the only team in the NFL besides the Patriots with a point-differential of over 100, having outscored opponents 235-102, an average score of roughly 29-13. Five of their victories have come on the road and they?ve only failed to cash three times after surrendering a late touchdown against Arizona last time out to let the Cards pull off a backdoor cover. The 25 points they surrendered on Halloween night were a season-high and more than doubled the output against them over their previous four October games that saw them give up just 23.

This will be a major test to see if that defense can rebound, especially since they?ll be going up against the MVP favorite Russell Wilson without LB Kwon Alexander, who has been lost for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn pectoral last Tuesday. Wilson is 24-5-1 in primetime games, making him the biggest winner among QBs in such games since the merger.

This is going to be an immense test for Jimmy Garoppolo too. The quarterback was injured last season and had mostly experienced NFL life through backing up Tom Brady, so he is really going through all these big games for the first time. Pete Carroll will have blitzes and disguised defenses up his sleeve to try and force turnovers and spark an issue back up that Garoppolo has only recently been able to overcome.

Seattle has dominated the regular-season series in winning 12 of the last 14 meetings ? details at the bottom ? but lost the most recent matchup last December in a game started by backup Nick Mullens. A Richie James 97-yard kickoff return helped San Francisco find its footing early and it eventually won at home 26-23 to snap a 10-game losing streak in the series. The 49ers are prepared to stop being regarded as a surprise and look to begin their ascent to previous heights.

The Seahawks are intent on making sure that doesn?t happen. Wilson?s ability to keep plays alive should prove handy against the conference?s stingiest defense, especially given the pass rushers they bring to the table. He was sacked three times in last season?s loss but will get a new toy to work with in Josh Gordon, who strengthens a receiving corps that has excelled due to the efforts of Tyler Lockett and rookie DK Metcalf.

Seattle has won five of six, but only one of its victories has come against a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 4-0 on the road, but all of the games have been close and only one was an upset. This will be a proving ground for both teams, but my expectation is that we?ll be taking the 49ers and Seahawks seriously come January regardless of what transpires at Levi?s Stadium tonight. The divisional rematch will be played Week 17 at Century Link Field on Dec. 29. If the Seahawks are hoping to win the NFC West and compete for homefield advantage come playoffs, they?ll need to find a way to hand San Francisco its first loss here.

TOTAL TALK

The total on this game opened at 45 and has been pushed up to 47.5 as of Monday morning. Seattle enters this game with a 5-4 ?over? mark while San Francisco has watched the ?under? produce a 5-3 record. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David took a closer look at the total for this divisional matchup.

?After watching the ?under? go 19-10 in divisional games through the first six weeks of the season, we?ve seen the ?over? go 9-5 the last four weeks and that includes a 2-2 record in Week 10. I believe all things usually balance out in the long run and I would expect more high side tickets to cash in these spots, especially in rematch games.?

The ?over? went 2-0 in this series last year but the total results have flip-flopped over the past three seasons between the pair. Meaning, the ?under? was 2-0 in the 2017 series but the ?over? was 2-0 in 2016. The Seahawks have been the more consistent team offensively during this stretch, averaging 27.3 PPG but Seattle isn?t expected to score as many points on Monday. The team total on the ?Hawks is listed at 20 ?. David believes Seattle will eclipse that number.

?After watching some big underdogs connect on Sunday, nothing should surprise you in the NFL anymore and an outright win by Seattle certainly wouldn?t be a stunner. I believe the Seahawks have a shot to win and if they?re going to get the job done, then the offense will have to carry them,? David said. ?Seattle has covered six straight games as a road underdog (4-2 SU) and the offense has averaged 28.5 PPG in those decisions. Even though the Niners defense is ranked second in scoring (12.8 PPG), I don?t believe they?ve faced a formidable offense. Wilson has been the best passing QB in the league this season and I believe he?ll expose this unit, similar to what Baltimore did to New England in Week 9 on SNF.?

Bettors should note that favorites have gone 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS on Monday Night Football this season while the ?under? has produced a 7-3 record. The majority of these results were clear-cut with seven of the 10 decisions decided by double digits.

LINE MOVEMENT

Seattle Seahawks
Projected season win total: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 5/2 to 7/2
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 25/1

San Francisco 49ers
Projected season win total: 8 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 4/1 to 1/4
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 5/2
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 7/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"The game got immediate sharp action at -6.5 and pretty good action at 6 both ways. The George Kittle injury didn?t really cause any ripples. I?d think we kick at 6 or 6.5," said Berg, whose valuable observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "It seems like a game where we would prefer the 49ers win but don?t cover."

INJURY CONCERNS

Kittle?s knee injury finally sidelining him after he?s attempted to play through discomfort over the past few weeks is major news, so unless he suits up at the last minute, San Francisco will look to survive with second-year tight end Ross Dwelley and Levine Toilolo, who is attempting to return from a groin injury. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk, the NFL?s best at his position, will return for the first time since Week 5 and should help soften the blow of Kittle?s absence. Tackle Mike McGlinchey is also returning for the first time in over a month, while veteran tackle Joe Staley is expected back for the first time since Week 2. McGlinchey is the only one of those returning whose availability remains in doubt, so check on that closer to kickoff.

Alexander had been tremendous for the defense, so it?s no indictment of rookie Dre Greenlaw that a dropoff is expected. The fifth-round pick from Arkansas will likely be tested often. Corner Ahkello Witherspoon is dealing with a foot sprain and a quad injury, so he?s unlikely to be back in the mix. Kicker Robbie Gould is also dealing with a quad injury and isn?t expected to be available either. Rookie Chase McLaughlin, who worked with the Chargers while Michael Badgley was on the mend, was signed over the weekend to fill-in.

Most of Seattle?s concerns lie up front, but it got good news with tackle Duane Brown (biceps, knee) expected to play. Center Joey Hunt is a go. Guard Phil Haynes (ankle) is questionable but likely to play as well, which eases the blow of having lost center Justin Britt and versatile Ethan Pocic in October. Safety Tedric Thompson was also lost for the season last month, so getting safety Delano Hill back would be a plus for the Seahawks, who are healthier than they?ve been in weeks. They?ll also have newly acquired Quandre Diggs out there after he?s been dealing with a hamstring issue, not to mention adding the aforementioned Gordon to the offensive mix.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Seahawks 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS last 14, UNDER 8-6)

12/16/18 49ers 26-23 OT vs. Seahawks (SF +3.5, 44)
12/2/18 Seahawks 43-16 vs. 49ers (SEA -10, 45.5)
11/26/17 Seahawks 24-13 at 49ers (SEA -7, 45)
9/17/17 Seahawks 12-9 vs. 49ers (SF +13.5, 42)
1/1/17 Seahawks 25-23 at 49ers (SF +11.5, 45)
9/25/16 Seahawks 37-18 vs. 49ers (SEA -10.5, 42)
11/22/15 Seahawks 29-13 vs. 49ers (SEA -13.5, 40)
10/22/15 Seahawks 20-3 at 49ers (SEA -6.5, 42)
12/14/14 Seahawks 17-7 vs. 49ers (SEA -9.5, 38)
11/27/14 Seahawks 19-3 at 49ers (SEA +1.5, 40.5)
1/19/14 Seahawks 23-17 vs. 49ers (SEA -4, 40.5)
12/8/13 49ers 19-17 vs. Seahawks (SF-2, 41)
9/15/13 Seahawks 29-3 vs. 49ers (SEA -2.5, 43.5)
12/23/12 Seahawks 42-13 vs. 49ers (SEA -2, 40.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 11 currently has the 49ers as a 14-point home favorite against division rival Arizona, which will come in on a three-game losing streak as the lone NFC South team sporting a sub-.500 record. The Seahawks will be on their bye week.

 

[Cnotes53]

McCaffrey distraught following loss
November 10, 2019
By The Associated Press

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Christian McCaffrey was noticeably distraught following the Panthers' loss on Sunday.

The MVP candidate sat with his head in his hands in the locker room after he was stopped just short of the end zone as time expired in a 24-16 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field.

A brief replay review upheld the call.

''I don't know. It's tough to see when my head's not facing straight,'' McCaffrey said of the final play. ''You've just got to get in those situations and give ourselves a shot, and I didn't get it.''

McCaffrey entered the day as the league leader in rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns, total touchdowns and yards from scrimmage. The third-year running back finished Sunday with a relatively quiet 108 yards and a score on 20 carries and 33 yards on six catches. It was his lowest output since Week 6 at Tampa.

The Packers' leaky defense entered the day allowing the third-most rushing yards, second-most touchdowns and the fifth-most receptions to the running back position this season. But a week after getting torched by Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler in Los Angeles, Green Bay set out to at least contain McCaffrey.

''Yeah, you know whenever you're playing a talented player like that, he's going to get his yards,'' Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. ''The whole key is try to contain him as best you can because he's one of the elite players in this league. I thought our guys, there were moments where we were giving up some big plays. There was a lot of bend within our defense, but I thought we stiffened up again in the red zone and we made some plays.''

Green Bay kept McCaffrey out of the end zone on the last two plays of the Panthers' final drive. Outside of an 18-yard run and an 11-yard reception, McCaffrey was limited to small gains and had to work for every yard.

McCaffrey is no longer dominating the field. He ended the night tied with Packers running back Aaron Jones in both total touchdowns (14) and rushing touchdowns (11).

''We all know that Christian is a very talented player, and he's been mentioned in the MVP race. So maybe it's time to start talking about Aaron Jones,'' Aaron Rodgers said.

McCaffrey has to quickly put Sunday night behind him with a matchup against division-rival Atlanta next week.

''You've just got to move on, you've got to get better this week,'' he said.