CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

Tech Trends - Week 13
Bruce Marshall

Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off on Thanksgiving, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Sunday, Dec. 6

DETROIT at CHICAGO
Lions going bad again, 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 TY after Texans loss.
Patricia has been removed.
After Packers last Sunday night, Bears only 9-19 last 28 vs. spread and also ?under? 24-10 last 34 since late 2018.
Chicago has won last five outright in series, 4-1 vs. line in those games.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

CINCINNATI at MIAMI
After 6-1-1 start vs. spread, Cincy has dropped 2 of last 3 vs. line and now no Burrow.
Cincy also ?over? 4-2 last six TY.
Miami had won and covered 5 in a row before Denver loss, and Dolphins now 8-2 vs. points last ten as host.

Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON
Houston on uptick for Romeo with wins last two and covers in last three TY.
Though Indy has won and covered last four and six of last seven in series.
?Unders? 6-2 last 8 meetings.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Colts, based on ?totals? and series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at MINNESOTA
Jags 0-10 SU last nine, 3-6 vs. spread last nine TY.
Vikes had covered 6 of 7 before Dallas loss and Carolina non-cover, also ?over? 8-3 in 2020 and over? 16-6 last 22 reg season games.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Vikings, based on ?totals? and team trends.

LAS VEGAS at N.Y. JETS
Remember that Raiders got bounced here by Jets 34-3 LY.
Vegas had covered last four in 2020 before Atlanta debacle, and even after Miami loss, Jets have covered 3 of last 5.
Raiders ?over? 7-3-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA
Quick rematch of Saints? 24-9 win on Nov. 22.
Saints have covered 4 of last 5 in Atlanta, also on 4-game cover streak TY and ?under? last 4 after 7 straight ?overs? out of the gate.
Falcs just 2-4 vs. line at home TY, though 4-2 vs. line for Raheem Morris.
Last four and six of last seven ?under? in series.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Saints, based on ?totals? and series trends.

CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE
Titans ?over? 19-5 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid-2019, though Browns ?under? 3 of last 4 in 2020.
Browns 1-10 vs. spread last eleven away.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Titans, based on ?totals? and team trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at SEATTLE
G-Men surging with 6-1-1 spread mark last eight in 2020, and have remarkably covered 9 of last 10 away from MetLife.
Hawks often cut it close but are 4-1 vs. line at home in 2020 after 2-6 spread mark at now-called Lumen Field LY.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

L.A. RAMS at ARIZONA
Sean McVay is 6-0 SU vs. Cards and 5-1 vs. line against Arizona since arriving at Rams in 2017.
Won and covered all three in Glendale, in fact Rams have won and covered last five at Glendale.
Az no covers last 4 in 2020 after Kingsbury was 15-7-1 vs. spread previous, but still 11-4-1 last 16 as dog.

Tech Edge: Rams, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY
Into Seattle game last Monday, Birds 3-7 vs. line in 2020, 10-17 since a year ago (depending upon time of wager, Philly either W or L vs. Seahawks).
Eagles also 1-4 vs. line on road TY.
Philly also ?under? last five in 2020.
Pack has flattened a bit but into Bears last Sunday night still 6-3 vs. number last nine at Lambeau.

Tech Edge: Pack and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

NEW ENGLAND at L.A. CHARGERS
Bolts 7-1 ?over? last 8 TY, now 11-5 ?over? last 15 since late 2019.
Chargers have also dropped last five vs. spread.
Belichick however just 1-4 vs. line away in 2020.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to patriots, based on ?totals? and team trends.

DENVER at KANSAS CITY
Chiefs on 10-game SU win streak vs. Broncos, their longest-ever in this series.
Combined score last three meetings since 2019 is 96-25, and Chiefs 9-1 vs. line in those 10 SU wins.
?Unders? 4-1 last five meetings.

Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to ?under,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

Monday, Dec. 7

WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH
WFT has now won and covered two in a row and had a road spread W after 9-3-1 mark vs. line away previous to Dallas on Thanksgiving.
Into Ravens on Wednesday, Steel however has covered 7 of last 8 TY and is ?over? 4-1 at Heinz Field.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Steelers, based on ?totals? and team trends.

BUFFALO at SAN FRANCISCO
Battered Niners just 1-4 vs. line at home this season, Bills surprising 7-3-1 ?over? in 2020.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and alight to Bills, based on ?totals? and recent trends.

Tuesday, Dec. 8

DALLAS at BALTIMORE
Cowboys just 2-9 vs. line TY after WFT loss.
Balt only 2-5-1 vs. spread last 8 into Steelers on Tuesday, but had been 12-1-1 vs. line in previous 14 reg season games.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on extended trends.

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

279BALTIMORE -280 PITTSBURGH
BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. in the last 3 seasons.

BALTIMORE (6 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 0) - 12/2/2020, 3:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Wednesday afternoon
Ravens (6-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-0)
? QB Lamar Jackson (COVID) is out; this game is now scheduled for Tuesday
? Robert Griffin III will QB the Ravens.
? Baltimore lost three of last four games, after a 5-1 start.
? Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23-30 in losses.
? Baltimore won four of five road games SU this year- the loss was 23-17 in Foxboro.
? Under is 3-2 in Baltimore road games this season.
? Ravens are thin at RB, with couple of guys having COVID issues.
? Ravens are 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog; this is first time they?re an underdog this season.

? Steelers won first ten games (8-2 ATS), scoring 29.8 ppg.
? Pittsburgh?s home wins this year are by 5-7-9-31-26 points
? Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
? Steelers are +12 in turnovers this season, +7 in last three games.
? Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
? In their last six games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards five times.

? Steelers (+4) won 28-24 in Baltimore four weeks ago.
? Ravens ran ball for 265 yards in that game, but were -3 in turnovers.
? Pittsburgh has swept Ravens once in the last 11 years.
? Baltimore won 26-14/26-23OT in last two visits to Steel City.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

Ravens vs. Steelers Week 12 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

A proposed Thursday Night Football game was supposed to be played on Tuesday Night football and after another about-face, the NFL decided to move Pittsburgh and Baltimore to a rare Wednesday afternoon contest.

Why play on Wednesday afternoon instead of in the primetime slot? Well, while we believe football is king of television in America, and it is for the most part, the folks at NBC have already booked a ?Christmas In Rockefeller Center? tree-lighting special. Score one for Santa Claus!

The Baltimore Ravens are in the middle of a virus issue right now and it could end up being the beginning of the end for their 2020 campaign because of it and if you don't think so, then check out the injury report below.

This huge rematch with the Pittsburgh Steelers was meant to give the Ravens a last shot at staying in the AFC North race, but with how the next few weeks play out for Baltimore, they might not even get a legitimate last shot at even making the playoffs now.

That's life in the NFL in 2020 though, as from the Denver Broncos perspective this week, Baltimore's even lucky the NFL moved the game for them. Denver wasn't afforded such courtesy and was made to ?take one for the shield? so to speak in playing without a legitimate quarterback on Sunday.

So after coughing up the first meeting with four turnovers and still having a pass broken up in the end zone on the final play of the game to win it, can Baltimore get any sort of redemption in the return match with the Steelers, or will Pittsburgh take no quarter with their embattled division rival and cruise to an 11-0 record?

Betting Resources

Week 12 Matchup: AFC North
Venue: Heinz Field
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2020
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Instead of playing on Thanksgiving Day night, the Ravens and Steelers will be meeting on Wednesday in Week 12. (AP)

Ravens-Steelers Betting Odds

Spread: Pittsburgh -10
Money-Line: Pittsburgh -500, Baltimore +400
Total: 40.5

2020 Betting Stats

Baltimore

Overall: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U
Road: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.8 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 19.5 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 343.9 (Rank 24)
Defense YPG: 333.0 (Rank 8)

Pittsburgh

Overall: 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS, 4-4-2 O/U
Home: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 4)
Defense PPG: 17.4 (Rank 1)
Offense YPG: 347.8 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 306.9 (Rank 4)

Handicapping the Total

The first meeting easily went 'over' the closing number of 44, making it the 3rd straight in this rivalry to go 'over' the number. But this is also going to be a very different looking Ravens team we see on the field this time around, and expecting any sort of similar success will be tough.

Baltimore would love to protect the ball this time around, as they had no problem moving the ball against the vaunted Steelers defense in that first game, they just couldn't hold on to it long enough to cash in points.

The success the Ravens had running the ball (265 rushing yards) can work as a positive for this game, considering we are likely to see Baltimore run the ball plenty to try and shorten the game. Shortening the game is the best chance Baltimore's got in this one, as it's not like their own defense couldn't try to steal this thing either.

Allowing 28 points after giving up just 221 total yards in that first game was a sore spot for this Ravens defense, even with seven of those points coming directly from the Steelers defense on the pick-six to open the scoring.

I'd expect them to welcome the challenge of trying to carry this team from the outset, but that can only take you so far in terms of trying to win the game.

In terms of the total though, the shape this Baltimore roster is in does lend itself to looking low on this total. Baltimore's going to bring a heavy dose of their running game at Pittsburgh again, and if they can continually move the chains that way like they did in the first meeting, the Steelers time of possession here will be slim.

That's going to make it tough for Pittsburgh to cover this point spread, or do enough on their end for 'over' bettors.

Head-to-Head History

Nov. 1, 2020 - Pittsburgh 28 at Baltimore 24, Steelers +4, Over 44
Dec. 29, 2019 - Baltimore 28 vs. Pittsburgh 10, Ravens +2, Over 35
Oct. 6, 2019 - Baltimore 26 at Pittsburgh 23, Steelers +3.5, Over 44

Handicapping the Side

You'd have to go all the way back to 10 meetings ago between these two teams to find the last time one of them was catching double digits, as Baltimore won 20-17 outright as an 11-point home underdog back in late December of 2015.

Baltimore was the team that owned the turnover battle that day in going +3 in that regard, and they'll probably need to have multiple turnovers again this time around to have a shot at the outright victory.

But covering a double digit spread in a rivalry where Baltimore's only lost by double digits three times to Pittsburgh since the start of the 2005 season (34 games) is a much different question no matter who the Ravens end up on the field with.

QB Robert Griffin III has plenty of experience in this league, and with his skill set being very similar to starter Lamar Jackson, having him as a backup really allows the Ravens coaching staff to keep the status quo in terms of what plays are readily available to use.

Keeping things simple and executing (what you can execute) at a high level are going to be critical to any level of success Baltimore has here, and having RG III back there is a far different circumstance then what Denver dealt with this past week.

But that blowout defeat the Broncos suffered because of COVID issues will find some common ground in the marketplace with what is likely to be Steelers love from start to finish for this game.

Bettors will remember how easy a win it was laying whatever number with the Saints on Sunday, and think it will be more of the same with Pittsburgh and their lofty number.

I'm not so sure that will be the case in a rivalry game of this nature, but with next to nothing for practice time, and question marks on if all the Ravens players even know one another out there are still concerned enough to move on from all this uncertainty and move on to another day.

A forced selection on the side would have me siding with all those points and Baltimore, but I do believe the total is still the better way to go, if only because of the chance this game does turn out similar to the Saints/Broncos game where Pittsburgh cruises to a big lead and can just sit on the ball in the 2nd half to let that clock bleed.

Key Injuries - Ravens vs. Steelers

Baltimore

DT Broderick Washington Jr.: COVID19 - Probable
LB Jaylon Ferguson: COVID19 - Probable
RB Mark Ingram II: COVID19 - Probable
RB J.K. Dobbins: COVID19 - Probable
G D.J. Fluker: Back - Questionable
G Will Holden: COVID19 - Questionable
DT Justin Madubuike: COVID19 - Questionable
FB Patrick Ricard: COVID19 - Questionable
G Matt Skura: COVID19 - Questionable
G Patrick Mekari: COVID19 - Questionable
DE Jihad Ward: COVID19 - Questionable
DE Derek Wolfe: Illness - Questionable
CB Jimmy Smith: Ankle - Questionable
LB Pernell McPhee: COVID19 - Questionable
DT Brandon Williams: Ankle - Out
LB Matthew Judon: COVID-19 - Out
WR Willie Snead IV: COVID-19 - Out
QB Lamar Jackson: COVID-19 - Out
TE Mark Andrews: COVID-19 - Out

Pittsburgh

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Toe - Probable
TE Vance McDonald: COVID-19 - Probable
RB Jaylen Samuels: Quad - Questionable
CB Joe Haden: Knee - Questionable
RB James Conner: COVID-19 - Out
RB Trey Edmunds: Hamstring - Out
TE Zach Gentry: Knee - Out

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

451DETROIT -452 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.

453CINCINNATI -454 MIAMI
CINCINNATI is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.

455INDIANAPOLIS -456 HOUSTON
INDIANAPOLIS are 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

457JACKSONVILLE -458 MINNESOTA
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

461LAS VEGAS -462 NY JETS
LAS VEGAS are 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

463NEW ORLEANS -464 ATLANTA
NEW ORLEANS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

465CLEVELAND -466 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog since 1992.

467NY GIANTS -468 SEATTLE
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

469LA RAMS -470 ARIZONA
LA RAMS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Sunday, December 6

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DETROIT (4 - 7) at CHICAGO (5 - 6) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 57-87 ATS (-38.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 8 - 1) at MIAMI (7 - 4) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) at HOUSTON (4 - 7) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 10) at MINNESOTA (5 - 6) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LAS VEGAS (6 - 5) at NY JETS (0 - 11) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 45-86 ATS (-49.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY JETS are 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (4 - 7) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (8 - 3) at TENNESSEE (8 - 3) - 12/6/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TENNESSEE is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (4 - 7) at SEATTLE (8 - 3) - 12/6/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 72-45 ATS (+22.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (7 - 4) at ARIZONA (6 - 5) - 12/6/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ARIZONA is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LA RAMS are 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 7 - 1) at GREEN BAY (8 - 3) - 12/6/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 120-86 ATS (+25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 204-149 ATS (+40.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (5 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 8) - 12/6/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 275-214 ATS (+39.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 275-214 ATS (+39.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-51 ATS (+34.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 211-157 ATS (+38.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 203-156 ATS (+31.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 135-94 ATS (+31.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (4 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 1) - 12/6/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (8 - 3) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) - 12/7/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
BUFFALO is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Lions (4-7) @ Chicago (5-6)
? Darrell Bevell is Lions? interim coach.
? Detroit lost four of last five games, giving up 32.6 ppg.
? Lions was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of their last three games.
? Lions are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
? Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
? Four of last five Lion games went over the total.

? Bears lost their last five games, after a 5-1 start.
? Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
? Bears are favored for only second time this year.
? Bears are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home favorite.
? Chicago has only three takeaways in its last five games (-7).
? Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.

? Bears (+3) won 27-23 at Detroit in Week 1, coming back from down 13-6 at half.
? Chicago won last six series games, last two by 4-4 points.
? Lions lost 37-22/20-13 in last two visits to the Windy City.

Bengals (2-8-1) @ Miami (7-4)
? Bengals lost last three games by a combined 75-36.
? QB Allen was 17-29/136 in his 4th NFL start, first for Bengals.
? Cincinnati is 0-5-1 SU on road this year, 3-3 ATS.
? Cincy is 17-11 ATS in last 28 games as a road underdog.
? Bengals trailed at halftime only once in last six games.
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

? Dolphins won/covered six of their last seven games.
? Dolphins won/covered their last three home games.
? Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in five of seven wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
? Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
? Dolphins have nine takeaways in last four games (+4)
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

? Teams split last eight series games.
? Bengals lost eight of last nine visits to Miami, with last two losses in Miami both in overtime.
? Cincy?s last win in Miami was back in 2008.

Colts (7-4) @ Houston (4-7)
? Colts were down 28-14/35-14 at halftime of last two games.
? Indy won three of its last four road games.
? Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-4 when they do not.
? Indy is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite, 3-1 TY.
? Six of their last seven games went over the total.
? NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 14-5 ATS this year.

? Texans won three of their last four games, after a 1-6 start.
? Texans lost three of their five home games.
? Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
? Texans had 20+ points at the half in three of last four games.
? Under is 5-0 in Houston?s home games this year.
? Texans are 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.

? Indy won five of last seven series games.
? Colts won three of their last four visits to Houston, losing 20-17 LY.

Jaguars (1-10) @ Minnesota (5-6)
? Glennon is 6-17 as an NFL starter; he was 20-35/235 in his first start in three years.
? Glennon averaged 6.7 yards/pass attempt (4.0/3.4 previous two games).
? Jaguars lost last ten games, but covered three of last four.
? Jacksonville fired its GM Sunday, but kept coach for rest of year.
? Jaguars are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
? AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 6-8-1 ATS.

? Vikings won four of five games, since their bye week.
? Minnesota covered six of its last nine games.
? Vikings have lost field position in every game but one; they were even in that one.
? Minnesota has one win this season by more than 8 points.
? Minnesota is 19-12-2 ATS in last 33 games as a home favorite, but 1-4 TY.
? Three of their last four games went over the total.

? Minnesota won last four series games; their last loss to Jaguars was in 2000.
? Jaguars lost three of four visits here, with last one in 2012.

Raiders (6-5) @ NJ Jets (0-11)
? Las Vegas lost its last two games, giving up 35-43 points.
? Raiders are 4-2 SU on road, winning by 4-8-10-5 points.
? Raiders are 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as road favorites.
? Raiders covered four of their last five games overall.
? Over is 8-3 in Raider games this season.
? AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-4-1 ATS, 2-2-1 on road.

? Winless Jets are 3-8 ATS, losing home games by 8-9-20-8-3-17 points.
? Jets are 0-6 SU at home this year (2-4 ATS).
? Jets have been outscored 66-29 in 2nd half of their last six games.
? Jets are winless, but their turnover ratio is even.
? Jets are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
? Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

? Teams split last eight series games.
? Jets pounded the Raiders 34-3 LY.
? Raiders lost last six series games in the Garden State; last time they beat Jets here was way back in 1996.

Saints (9-2) @ Atlanta (4-7)
? New Orleans won its last eight games, covering last four.
? Saints allowed one TD on opponents? last 33 drives.
? Saints allowed 17.1 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
? New Orleans won four of five road games; they?re 2-0 outdoors, winning 26-23 in Chicago, 38-3 in Tampa.
? Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.
? Last four New Orleans games stayed under the total.

? Falcons won four of last six games, after an 0-5 start.
? Atlanta won its last two home games, scoring 77 points.
? Atlanta led five of its last six games at halftime.
? Falcon opponents converted only 22 of last 69 third down plays.
? Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in last six games as home underdogs, 1-1 TY.
? Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.

? Saints outrushed Atlanta 168-52, squashed the Falcons 24-9 two weeks ago.
? New Orleans won five of last six series games.
? Saints won 43-37 OT/26-18 in last two visits to Atlanta.

Browns (8-3) @ Tennessee (8-3)
? Cleveland won its last three games, by 3-5-2 points.
? Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 30.8 ppg in wins
? Cleveland won three of five road games, giving up 32.3 ppg in the wins.
? Cleveland is 11-19-1 ATS in its last 31 games as a road underdog, 1-2 TY.
? Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
? Last four games, Browns outscored foes 30-19 in first half.

? Tennessee won three of its last four games, scoring 29 ppg.
? Titans ran the ball for 186.3 yards/game the last three weeks.
? Titans turned ball over just one time in their last four games.
? Tennessee is 4-2 SU at home, winning by 3-26-6-7.
? Over is 7-2-1 in Titans? last ten games.
? Titans are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

? Titans won last three series games; they hammered Cleveland 43-13 LY.
? Browns actually won three of last five visits to Nashville.

NJ Giants (4-7) @ Seattle (8-3)
? QB Jones (hamstring) is hurt; McCoy (7-21 as starter) likely to start here.
? Giants won their last three games, covered seven of last eight.
? Giants are 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS outside their division.
? Six of Giants? last seven games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
? Big Blue lost four of six road games, winning 23-20/19-17 @ Washington/Cincy.
? Last 4+ years, Giants are 4-2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

? Short week for Seahawks, after their win Monday night.
? Seattle split its last six games, after a 5-0 start.
? Seahawks won field position in first five games, but only once in last five.
? Seattle is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
? Last three Seattle games stayed under the total.
? Seahawks are minus-5 in turnovers (2-7) their last four games.

? Seattle won last four series games, all by 11+ points.
? Teams haven?t met since 2017; Giants? last series win was in 2010.
? Giants lost 38-14 in last visit to Seattle, in 2014.

Rams (7-4) @ Arizona (6-5)
? Rams split their last six games, after a 4-1 start.
? LA has outscored opponents 133-61 in second half of games.
? Rams split their six road games (underdogs 4-2 ATS)
? Seven of LA?s last eight games stayed under the total.
? Under McVay, Rams are 14-10 ATS as a road favorite, 1-2 TY.
? Rams turned ball over 11 times in last four games, a red flag.

? Arizona lost three of four games since their bye week.
? Cardinals allowed 29.2 ppg in their last five games.
? Cardinals are 3-2 SU at home; their last four home games were decided by total of 11 points.
? Redbirds are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
? Under is 7-4 in Cardinal games this season.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in eight of its 11 games.

? Rams won last six series games, outscoring Cardinals 99-16 in last three.
? Rams won their last five visits to Glendale, last three by average of 31-8.

Eagles (3-7-1) @ Green Bay (8-3)
? Eagles lost last three games, by 10-5-6, scoring 17 points in all three.
? Philly is 1-5-1 SU outside their division.
? Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-7-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Eagles are 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.
? Last four games, Philly was outscored 44-14 in first half.
? Seven of last nine Philly games stayed under the total.

? Green Bay won three of its last four games, scoring 31-41 points last two weeks.
? Packers scored 30+ points in seven of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
? Green Bay converted 63-130 third down plays (48.5%)
? Packers are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
? Three of last four Green Bay games went over the total.
? Packers were outscored in second half of their last eight games.

? Packers won five of last seven series games.
? Teams split last six series games played here- they lost 37-34 here LY.

New England (5-6) @ LA Chargers (3-8)
? New England won three of its last four games.
? Underdogs covered last seven Patriot games.
? New England trailed at halftime in seven of its last eight games.
? NE was outgained 298-179 by Arizona last week; their TD drives were 46-31 yards.
? Patriots are 1-4 SU/ATS on road this season, winning 30-27 at the Jets.
? Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

? Chargers lost their last four games, giving up 29.5 ppg.
? Bolts are 2-3 SU at home, beating Jets/Jaguars.
? Eight of last nine Charger games went over the total.
? Chargers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.
? Last two games, LA converted only 7-29 third down plays.
? In their last eight games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

? New England won last five series games, winning 41-28 in 2018 playoffs.
? Last time Chargers beat New England was 2008.
? Patriots won 23-20/23-14 in last two visits to San Diego/Carson.

Broncos (4-7) @ Kansas City (10-1)
? Broncos are expected to have all their QB?s back for this one.
? Denver lost five of last six games, giving up 31.3 ppg.
? Denver lost three of five road games SU (3-2 ATS)
? Broncos are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games as road underdogs, 3-2 TY.
? Denver turned ball over 15 times (-8) in their last six games.
? Chiefs (-7.5) pounded Denver 43-16 in Week 7, running a kick back for a TD, and also getting a defensive TD.

? Chiefs won their last six games, last three by total of nine points.
? Kansas City won four of five home games this year (3-2 ATS)
? Chiefs are 20-14 ATS in last 34 games as a home favorite.
? Last three games, Kansas City allowed 28.7 ppg.
? Chiefs scored 32+ points in seven of 11 games this year.
? NFL-wide, divisional favorites are 20-20 ATS this year.

? Kansas City won last ten series games.
? Broncos lost last four visits to Arrowhead, by average score of 29-14.

Monday?s games
Bills (8-3) vs San Francisco (5-6) (@ Glendale, AZ)
? Buffalo won four of its last five games, covered last three.
? Bills won three of five road games, losing at Tennessee/Arizona.
? Bills just just here in Glendale; Buffalo lost on Hail Mary on last play in Week 10.
? Bills scored 24+ points in seven of their eight wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 1-3 ATS this season as a road favorite.
? Nine of their 11 games went over the total.

? 49ers are playing ?home? games in Arizona, this week/next.
? 49ers beat the Rams LW, snapping a 3-game skid.
? Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
? 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 31.7 ppg in their losses.
? Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
? 49ers are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as an underdog away from home.

? Teams split last eight series games.
? Four of last five series games were decided by 29+ points.

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 6

Cleveland @ Tennessee
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games

Indianapolis @ Houston
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Detroit @ Chicago
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home

Jacksonville @ Minnesota
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Las Vegas @ NY Jets
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Las Vegas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
NY Jets is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

New Orleans @ Atlanta
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

Cincinnati @ Miami
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Miami
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

NY Giants @ Seattle
NY Giants
NY Giants is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

LA Rams @ Arizona
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arizona's last 16 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games at home

New England @ LA Chargers
New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games

Philadelphia @ Green Bay
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games

Denver @ Kansas City
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Denver's last 18 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver

Monday, December 7

Washington @ Pittsburgh
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Buffalo @ San Francisco
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 2

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BAL at PIT 03:40 PM

BAL +10.5

O 42.5

Cnotes53 · Dec 2, 2020

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Cnotes53 · Dec 3, 2020

Thursday?s 6-pack
Odds to win the golf tournament in Mexico this week:
+725? Justin Thomas
+1900? Brooks Koepka, Harris English
+1950? Russell Henley
+2000? Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Viktor Hovland
+2900? Tony Finau, Corey Conners
+3200? Brendan Todd

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 271,247
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?We came in on that Tuesday and got some extra work in when no one was here, and we got too lackadaisical with [the protocols]. It ended up hurting us and it hurt this program and I apologize for letting that happen. We could have been better. That?s the point of the matter here. We needed to be perfect and we weren?t perfect. That?s something that we?ve got to be better at.?
Broncos? QB Drew Lock

Thursday?s quiz
Where did John Wall play his college basketball?

Wednesday?s quiz
Virginia is technically the defending national champ in college basketball, since they won the tournament two years ago; they beat Texas Tech in the 2019 championship game.

Tuesday?s quiz
John Turturro played both Joey Knish in Rounders and coach Billy Sunday in He Got Game.

***************************

Thursday?s Den: Doing some thinking out loud??.

13) Pittsburgh 19, Ravens 14
? Ravens had ball on 1-yard line at end of first half, but didn?t score.
? RGIII threw a pick-6 for first score of the game in first quarter.
? Baltimore lost four of last five games, after a 5-1 start.
? Ravens are 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

? Steelers won first 11 games (8-3 ATS), scoring 27.9 ppg.
? Pittsburgh scored only 13 points on four red zone drives.
? Only 2nd time in 12 years Steelers swept season series from Baltimore.
? Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

12) Last NFL team to start a season 11-0? The 2015 Carolina Panthers.

11) NFL teams with worst records in games decided by 6 or fewer points:
0-5-1: Cincinnati
0-3: Atlanta, Washington
0-2: Jets
1-5: Baltimore

10) NFL teams with best records in games decided by 6 or fewer points:
5-0: Cleveland, Pittsburgh
4-0: Kansas City, New Orleans
5-1: Tennessee
3-1: Buffalo, Seattle

Browns-Titans play Sunday; two team that have won lot of close games.

9) Texas 69, North Carolina 67:
? Longhorns win the Maui Classic
? UNC took 32 foul shots, Texas 14; Bill Walton wasn?t happy about that.
? Texas was 9-22 on the arc, Carolina 1-9.

8) Speaking of Walton, I say every year how I learn things from listening to him, but the things I learn usually aren?t basketball-related.
? Maui Classic was held in Asheville, NC; veteran umpire Joe West was born in Asheville.
? Davidson had the first college of forestry in this country.

7) Robert Griffin III was the 2nd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, taken with a pick acquired from the Rams, who parlayed the draft picks they got from Washington into other picks, until they had essentially added eight players from trading that pick.

Griffin went 14-21 in three years as a starter for Washington- they made the playoffs his rookie year, but it was all downhill from there. When you trade four draft picks to take a QB, he damn well better be really good.

As for the Rams and the eight players they added, well, there?s a reason they sucked from 2013-16; except for Michael Brockers, those picks didn?t pan out. Janoris Jankins, Alec Ogletree were contributors, but the others didn?t do so well.

6) People on MLB Network were debating Hall of Fame possibilities this week, and Todd Helton?s name came up. Helton played his whole career for the Rockies, so the question of how playing at Coors Field helped him. Here are some facts:

Career at home: 4,841 PA, 874 runs scored, 859 RBI, 1.048 OPS
Career on road: 4,612 PA, 527 runs scored, 547 RBI, .855 OPS

His .386 career on-base %age on the road is still impressive, but he may have a hard time getting those lesser power numbers on the road into Cooperstown.

5) Kyle Schwarber (Cubs), Hansel Alberto (Orioles) were two of the more prominent players who were non-tendered Wednesday, which makes them free agents.

4) Gonzaga 87, West Virginia 82:
? Mountaineers led 39-34 at halftime
? Gonzaga shot 56.6% inside arc.
? Teams combined to make 9-33 on the arc; a brickfest.

High-level game, two NCAA-level teams.

3) Houston Rockets traded Russell Westbrook to the Washington Wizards for John Wall and a lottery-protected 1st-round pick. Westbrook is reunited with coach Scott Brooks, who was also one of his coaches in Oklahoma City.

2) NBA season will start December 22, with two games:
Warriors-Nets and Clippers-Lakers.

The next night, Bucks-Celtics, Mavericks-Suns will have the spotlight.

1) Baylor 82, Illinois 69? Flagler scored 18 off the bench for a Baylor team whose head coach is back in Waco, with COVID. This game easily could?ve passed for a Final Four game; Baylor plays Gonzaga next, which should be a very good matchup.

Cnotes53 · Dec 6, 2020

Sunday?s 6-pack
Eight best months of the year:
8) November? Football/basketball overlap, Thanksgiving.
T5) June-August? All tied; baseball every day, great weather
4) October? Usually spend 10-11 days in Las Vegas.
3) May? Baseball, plus NBA/NHL playoffs. Weather gets better
2) September? Baseball/football overlap, weather still good.
1) March? College basketball everywhere, spring training on TV.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 281,121
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?You can shear a sheep many times, but skin him only once.?
Amarillo Slim

Sunday?s quiz
Troy Aikman finished his college career at UCLA; where did he start it?

Saturday?s quiz
Billie Jean King once played a judge on Law and Order.

Friday?s quiz
Baker Mayfield was Oklahoma?s QB for three years after starting his college career at Texas Tech.

****************************

Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Coastal Carolina 22, BYU 17? This game was put together Thursday morning, after Liberty had to back out because of COVID issues. Was a fun game to watch; unsure how Chanticleers convinced McCall to come play QB for them, but he?s a hell of a player.

BYU completed a pass to the Coastal 1-yard line on last play of the game, but the receiver was stopped short of the goal line, much like Kevin Dyson in Super Bowl XXXIV for the Titans.

12) Indiana 14, Wisconsin 6:
? Indiana coach Tom Allen is the national Coach of the Year. Period.
? Hoosiers lost their QB for the year last week; they win here as a 13-point dog.
? Indiana is 6-1 for the first time since 1993.

11) Missouri 50, Arkansas 48:
? Arkansas scored TD with 0:43 left, got 2-point conversion, took a 48-47 lead.
? Missouri kicked a 32-yard FG at the gun for the win.
? Arlansas led 40-26 with 13:00 left in the game; Mizzou scored 27 points in 4th quarter.

10) Iowa State 42, West Virginia 6? Cyclones clinch their first-ever appearance in the Big X title game; not sure why a bigger $$$ school hasn?t scooped up coach Campbell.

9) TCU 29, Oklahoma State 22:
? TCU QB Duggan threw for 265 yards, ran for 104 more.
? Oklahoma State led 13-0 after first quarter, 16-7 at halftime.
? Horned Frogs won despite turning ball over five times (-4)

8) California 21, Oregon 17:
? Oregon?s loss makes standings in Pac-12 North a muddled mess.
? Three Cal coaches, including the head coach, are Oregon alums.

7) Upsets of the Week:
? Rice (+24) 20, Marshall 0
? Indiana (+13.5) 14, Wisconsin 6
? Eastern Michigan (+13.5) 53, Western Michigan 42
? Stanford (+12) 31, Washington 26
? Coastal Carolina (+10.5) 22, BYU 17
? California (+9) 21, Oregon 17

6) San Diego State 29, Colorado State 17? Aztecs are first college team in last five years to return a kick back for a TD and a punt back for a TD, both in same quarter.

5) Alabama 55, LSU 17:
? Crimson Tide led 45-14. At halftime.
? DeVonta Smith had 7 catches, 219 yards, three TD?s. At halftime.

4) Florida 31, Tennessee 19? Florida QB Trask has thrown 38 TD passes this season, only three INT?s, pretty impressive numbers.

3) SMU 66, Dayton 64? 4-0 Mustangs were down 10 early in second half; by Selection Sunday, this win will look better than it does now.

2) Kansas 65, North Dakota State 61? Kansas outscored the Bison 7-0 over final 3:57 to avoid a big upset. North Dakota State led 8-0 early, came up just a little bit short.

1) Iona 82, Hofstra 74? Rick Pitino gets his first win as coach of the Gaels.

Udog · Dec 6, 2020

Gridiron Angles - Week 13
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Seattle

-- The Giants are 12-0 ATS (4.25 ppg) since Oct 22, 2018 and as a dog facing a team allowing at least 22.5 points per game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Cleveland at Tennessee

-- The Titans are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.18 ppg) since Oct 17, 2004 as a favorite coming off a road win where they gained at least 22 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at N.Y. Jets

-- The Jets are 0-8 ATS (-10.75 ppg) since Sep 20, 2018 coming off a game where Sam Darnold threw at least two interceptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Philadelphia at Green Bay

-- The Eagles are 11-0-1 OU (11.79 ppg) since Jan 02, 2000 as a dog of more than three points off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 18 first downs.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Detroit at Chicago

-- The Bears are 0-11 OU (-10.14 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 off a game as a dog where they scored more points than their team total.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Cincinnati at Miami

-- The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-10.19 ppg) since Dec 15, 2003 at home coming off a road game that went under the total by 13 points.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Udog · Dec 6, 2020

Udog · Dec 6, 2020

NFL Week 13 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs suffered an ankle injury in a Week 12 loss against Atlanta. The Raiders officially ruled him out on Friday for Sunday's game against the Jets.

NFL Week 12 took quite a while to wrap up, but NFL Week 13 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably this week involving New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.

Week 13 Injuries

New York Giants: The Giants, who believe it or not are tied atop the NFC East at 4-7, got good news early this week that Jones' hamstring injury doesn't appear to be serious. However, on Friday, the team announced that Jones is doubtful to play Sunday at Seattle. New York opened +9 at The SuperBook at Westgate, moved to +10 Monday, to +10.5 Friday morning and went to +11 after the update on Jones. The total opened 48.5, bottomed out at 46.5 Wednesday and actually moved up from 47 to 47.5 after the Jones update.

Las Vegas Raiders: Running back Josh Jacobs sprained an ankle in Sunday's blowout loss at Atlanta, and on Friday afternoon, the Raiders announced he would sit out Sunday's game at the New York Jets. The SuperBook immediately responded by moving Las Vegas from -9 to -8.5. Prior to that move, the Raiders opened the week -8.5, dropped to -7.5 and rebounded to -9.

Miami Dolphins: Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) could be a game-time decision for Sunday's home contest against Cincinnati. Matt Breida went on the reserve/COVID list Friday, further thinning Miami at running back. The Dolphins opened -11.5 and stayed there most of the week, but on Friday afternoon dipped to -10.5. The total initially fell from 43 to 41.5, but got back to 42.5 Thursday morning.

New England Patriots: On Friday afternoon, the Patriots-Chargers line moved from pick to Los Angeles -2, after news that New England QB Cam Newton (abdomen) is questionable for Sunday's matchup. The total also inched down a half-point to 47. Wideout Julian Edelman, already on injured reserve due to a knee injury, was placed on the reserve/COVID list Monday. Edelman was not expected back in Week 13.

Kansas City Chiefs: Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) is questionable for Sunday night's home game vs. Denver. The Chiefs dipped a notch Friday afternoon at The SuperBook, from -14 to -13.5.

Denver Broncos: Wideout Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and running back Phillip Lindsay (knee) are questionable Sunday night at Kansas City. However, the line at The SuperBook ticked from Broncos +14 to +13.5 Friday afternoon.

Minnesota Vikings: Running back Dalvin Cook was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday. The Vikings-Jaguars total dropped 1.5 points Thursday afternoon at The SuperBook, from 52.5 to 51, which is where the total opened. On the spread, however, The SuperBook on Wednesday moved Minnesota from the opener of -9.5 to -10, and the line remained -10 Thursday.

Atlanta Falcons: Wideout Julio Jones (hamstring) and Todd Gurley (knee) are questionable for Sunday's contest against New Orleans. However, the Falcons remained 3-point home underdogs, which they've been since Monday afternoon.

Chicago Bears: Wideout Allen Robinson (knee) is questionable for Sunday's home tilt against Detroit. However, The SuperBook's line has been steady at Bears -3 since Monday afternoon, after opening -3.5 and briefly getting as high as -5.5. And the total actually ticked up Friday from 44.5 to 45.

Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford (thumb) is questionable for Sunday's game at Chicago, but SuperBook oddsmakers appear to believe Stafford is a go, as this line remained stuck at Lions +3 Friday.

Week 13 Weather

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: The updated forecast Thursday pretty much eliminated any chance of rain Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but winds of 10-20 mph are expected. The total went from 46 to 47.5 early in the week, then inched back to 47 Thursday morning at The SuperBook.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Early in the week, it appeared wind could be an issue Sunday in the Windy City. The updated forecast Thursday shows that to be much less likely, with very light winds and almost no chance of precipitation, either.

Cnotes53 · Dec 6, 2020

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NO at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL +2.5
U 45.5

JAC at MIN 01:00 PM
U 51.0

CLE at TEN 01:00 PM
U 53.0

LV at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +7.5
O 47.0

CIN at MIA 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5
U 43.0

DET at CHI 01:00 PM
U 44.0

IND at HOU 01:00 PM
IND -3.0
U 50.5

NYG at SEA 04:05 PM
NYG +11.0
U 47.0

LAR at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI +2.5
O 48.5

PHI at GB 04:25 PM
PHI +7.5
O 49.5

NE at LAC 04:25 PM
LAC -2.0
U 47.0

DEN at KC 08:20 PM
DEN +13.5
U 51.5

Cnotes53 · Dec 6, 2020

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........13-9-1......59.09%.....+15.50

Cnotes53 · Dec 7, 2020

Monday?s 6-pack
Odds to win the college football playoff:
4-5? Alabama
3-1? Clemson
7-2? Ohio State
14-1? Notre Dame
30-1? Florida
60-1? Cincinnati, Texas A&M

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 281,854
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?My emotions right now, I can?t even think straight. I?m just trying to wrap my head around this whole thing on what just happened.?
Detroit Lions? coach Darrell Bevell

Monday?s quiz
Who was the Seahawks? coach the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Sunday?s quiz
Troy Aikman finished his college career at UCLA; he started it at Oklahoma.

Saturday?s quiz
Billie Jean King once played a judge on Law and Order.

*******************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

NJ Giants 17, Seattle 12
? Giants held Seattle without a TD until there was 6:09 left to play.
? Giants won their last four games, covered eight of last nine.
? Seven of Giants? last eight games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
? Big Blue ran ball for 190 yards; Gallman had 135 of those.

? Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
? Seahawks led 5-0 at halftime, blocking a punt for a safety.
? Teams combined to convert only 7-25 on third down.
? Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last five games.

Colts 26, Houston 20
? Houston had ball on 2-yard line with 1:30 left; a poor shotgun snap ended drive.
? Texans lost four of their six home games.
? Houston is 0-7 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
? Under is 6-0 in Houston?s home games this year.

? Last three games, Colts allowed 83 first half points.
? Indy won four of its last five road games.
? Colts are 7-1 when they score 26+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
? Indy won four of its last five visits to Houston.

Lions 34, Chicago 30
? Detroit scored 14 points in last 2:18 for the unlikely win.
? Stafford was 27-42 passing, for 402 yards, three TD?s.
? Lions snap a 5-game losing streak to Chicago.
? Five of last six Lion games went over the total.

? Leading 30-27, Trubisky was sacked/fumbled on his own 10 with 1:49 left.
? Bears lost their last six games, after a 5-1 start.
? Chicago is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
? Chicago has only four takeaways in its last six games (-7).

Miami 19, Bengals 7
? Boyd scored on a 72-yard TD pass in first quarter for first score of game.
? Boyd was later ejected after a scuffle; this was chippy game, five players got tossed.
? Cincinnati?s last 7 drives: 36 plays, 88 yards, zero points.
? Bengals lost last four games by a combined 94-43.

? Dolphins won/covered seven of their last eight games.
? Dolphins won/covered their last four home games.
? Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in six of eight wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
? Miami is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

Minnesota 27, Jaguars 24 OT
? Jacksonville led 16-6 after a pick-6 early in third quarter.
? Jaguars tied game 24-all with 1:08 left, after a 75-yard drive.
? Glennon is 48-77/501 passing in his first two Jaguar starts, but he threw critical INT in OT.
? Jaguars lost last 11 games, but covered four of last five.

? Vikings won five of six games, are currently #7 seed in NFC.
? Minnesota won field position by 10 yards, first time this year they won this stat.
? Vikings have one win this season by more than 8 points.
? Cook ran ball for 120 yards, caught six passes for 59 yards.

Raiders 31, NJ Jets 28
? Carr hit single-covered Ruggs on 46-yard TD pass with 0:05 left.
? Raiders are 5-2 SU on road, winning by 4-8-10-5-3 points.
? Raiders are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as road favorites.
? Waller caught 13 passes for 200 yards, two TD?s.

? Jets stopped Raiders on downs in red zone with 1:37 left, didn?t get first down to ice game.
? For long term success of Jets, they need to get #1 pick and parlay it into a bounty of draft picks (or trade Darnold for picks); only a very cynical person would suggest that Ruggs was single covered to give Las Vegas a shot at the win.
? Winless Jets are 4-8 ATS; they ran ball for 206 yards.
? Johnson ran ball for 104 yards, Adams ran it for 74 more.

Saints 21, Atlanta 16
? New Orleans won its last nine games, covering last five.
? Saints allowed two TD?s on opponents? last 44 drives.
? New Orleans won six of last seven games in this underrated rivalry.
? Last five Saint games stayed under the total.

? Falcons scored 13 points on four drives in red zone; no bueno.
? Atlanta had ball on Saints? 20 in last 2:00, turned it over on downs.
? Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as home underdogs.
? Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.

Browns 41, Tennessee 35
? Browns in first half: six drives- five TD?s and a field goal.
? Mayfield is first Cleveland QB since 1951 to throw 4 TD?s in first half of a game.
? Cleveland won its last four games overall, by 3-5-2-6 points.
? Last five games, Browns outscored foes 68-26 in first half.

? Down 38-7 at half, Tennessee got within 41-35 with 0:28 left.
? 3rd down conversions: Browns 10-16, Titans 2-10.
? Over is 8-2-1 in Titans? last 11 games.
? Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

Rams 38, Arizona 28
? Rams won last seven series games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last four.
? LA has outscored opponents 157-82 in second half of games.
? Rams converted 9-15 third down plays, had 30 first downs.
? Goff was 37-47 passing, for 351 yards.

? Arizona hit 59-yard TD pass on first series; rest of half, they ran 18 plays for 46 yards.
? Cardinals allowed 30.7 ppg in their last six games.
? Redbirds lost four of five games since their bye week.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 12 games.

Green Bay 30, Eagles 16
? Eagles lost last four games, by 10-5-6-14, scoring 17-17-17-16 points.
? QB Hurts came off bench, was 5-12/109 passing, throwing a TD pass.
? Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Reagor ran a punt back 73 yards for Philly?s second TD.

? Green Bay won four of its last five games, scoring 31-41-30 last three weeks.
? Packers sacked Wentz/Hurts seven times.
? Green Bay is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
? First time in nine games Packers outscored their opponent in 2nd half.

New England 45, LA Chargers 0
? Patriots ran punt back for a TD, blocked FG for a TD.
? New England won field position by 28 yards; that doesn?t count the two TD?s.
? New England won four of its last five games overall.
? Underdogs covered last eight Patriot games.

? Chargers lost their last five games, giving up 32.6 ppg.
? Last three games, LA converted only 14-47 third down plays.
? Chargers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.
? In their last nine games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

Kansas City 22, Broncos 16
? Denver led this game 10-9 at halftime.
? Broncos lost five of last six games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
? Denver held Chiefs to four FG?s in four trips to red zone.
? Broncos ran ball for 179 yards, trying to keep their defense off field.

? KC didn?t score a TD until there was 1:06 left in third quarter.
? Tyreek Hill made a great catch for a TD in first half, but refs called it incomplete, and no one, not even Hill, realized he caught the ball, so call wasn?t challenged. Very strange play.
? Kansas City won its last 11 games vs Denver.
? Chiefs won their last six games overall, last four by total of 15 points.

Other scores from Sunday:
College football:
? USC 38, Washington State 13
? Western Kentucky 37, Charlotte 19

College hoop:
? Villanova 68, Texas 64
? West Virginia 80, Georgetown 71
? Georgia Tech 79, Kentucky 62? Wildcats are 1-3
? Xavier 77, Cincinnati 69
? Seton Hall 98, Penn State 92 OT
? San Diego State 65, Pepperdine 60

Cnotes53 · Dec 7, 2020

Washington vs. Steelers Week 13 Odds, Preview
Jonathan Willis

In a normal year, the only Monday night doubleheader would take place in Week 1. However, this is anything but a normal year, so the fourth Monday Night Football doubleheader of the 2020 season will take place on Monday, December 7.

The NFL was forced to reconfigure the schedules of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens after their Thanksgiving game was delayed three times, so Pittsburgh will host Washington prior to Buffalo taking on San Francisco this Monday night.

Week 13 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Heinz Field
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Date: Monday, Dec. 7, 2020
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Alex Smith and Washington seek a third straight win as it battles undefeated Pittsburgh. (AP)

Washington-Pittsburgh Betting Odds

Spread: Steelers -7
Money-Line: Pittsburgh -340, Washington +280
Total: 42.5

2020 Betting Stats

Washington

Overall: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U
Road: 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.9 (Rank 24)
Defense PPG: 22.1 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 325.3 (Rank 26)
Defense YPG: 309.5 (Rank 4)

Pittsburgh

Overall: 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-5-2 O/U
Home: 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 28.8 (Rank 6)
Defense PPG: 17.1 (Rank 1)
Offense YPG: 346.5 (Rank 22)
Defense YPG: 298.9 (Rank 3)

How to Handicap Washington-Pittsburgh

There has been considerable line movement in this game. When the line was originally released last Sunday evening, Pittsburgh was a double-digit favorite.

The continued postponement of Pittsburgh?s game with Baltimore will likely give Washington an edge though, as the visitors have had almost an extra week to prepare. That led to an adjustment in the line and solid action on Washington once the number was available.

Pittsburgh is the NFL?s last unbeaten team. The Steelers are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS. They have been favored in all but two games this season, yet four of their last six wins have been by five points or less.

Pittsburgh didn?t get ahead of the number until the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore, and the Steelers? hopes for a cover were dashed when a poor decision by Terrell Edmunds led to a 70-yard touchdown reception for Marquise Brown.

Washington hasn?t seen the field since Thanksgiving. This team is tied with the New York Giants for first place in the NFC East at 4-7. Three of Washington?s four victories came against NFC East opponents, and the only win aside from that was over Cincinnati two weeks ago. Washington is out to win its third straight game following the team?s 41-16 throttling of Dallas.

Betting Analysis - Washington Football Team

2020: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U

Although Alex Smith?s comeback is a feel-good story, his play on the field has been mediocre at best. Smith has largely been dinking and dunking underneath, completing 69 percent of his passes for 6.9 YPA with three touchdowns and five interceptions.

Smith has been marginalized in Washington?s last two wins, throwing for 166 yards against Cincinnati and 149 yards against Dallas.

The run game has looked much better the last couple weeks with Antonio Gibson leading the charge. Gibson averaged 5.9 YPC against the Bengals and 5.8 YPC against the Cowboys. He is averaging 4.6 YPC on the season, and his only three games with more than 60 rushing yards have been Washington?s last three victories.

Star receiver Terry McLaurin is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. McLaurin has been the only reliable part of this offense, and he has been significantly better than Washington?s other receivers.

The second-year player out of Ohio State has 69 receptions for 963 yards and three touchdowns, and the next two top receivers on the team are RB J.D. McKissic (338 yards) and TE Logan Thomas (328 yards). If McLaurin is unable to play, this offense is in serious trouble.

The Steelers rank first in sack percentage, but Washington is right behind them thanks to the most intimidating defensive line in the NFL. This franchise has used a first-round pick on a defensive lineman for four straight years.

The laser focus on this one position group has led to a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks thanks to Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne. That has made things a lot easier for the cornerbacks so Washington ranks second in the NFL, allowing 194.2 YPG through the air.

Betting Analysis - Pittsburgh Steelers

2020: 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-5-2 O/U

Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable to play on Monday night. Roethlisberger is expected to start after practicing on Sunday though, so the Steelers won?t have to deal with the ineffective quarterback play that plagued them in 2019.

While Big Ben is no longer the quarterback he was a few years ago, he is still an above average signal caller. He is avoiding mistakes, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 2,800 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

However, his 6.5 YPA is telling regarding how this offense has changed. Roethlisberger is no longer stretching the field often with mid to deep range passes as Pittsburgh?s receivers are averaging an NFL-worst 10.2 YPR.

The Steelers do have a quartet of talented receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and Chase Claypool. The rookie has been the most impressive of the bunch, leading the team with 611 yards (13.6 YPR) and eight touchdowns. However, fumbles have been a major problem for Claypool (three) and the receiving corps as a whole (six).

The most underrated unit on the Steelers is the offensive line. Pittsburgh lost two starting offensive linemen in the season opener, but Roethlisberger has only been sacked 10 times in 11 games.

Unfortunately, the offensive line will be without its rock against Washington as Maurkice Pouncey will miss the game. Top running back James Conner won?t play either, leaving Benny Snell Jr. as the Steelers? No. 1 option at running back.

Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league. The Steelers rank first in DVOA, first in scoring defense (17.1 PPG) and third in total defense (298.9 YPG). However, this defense lost another one of its standout linebackers as Bud Dupree suffered a season-ending injury against Baltimore. Dupree and Devin Bush are now lost for the year, so the linebacking corps can?t afford another big injury. Cornerback Steven Nelson is listed as doubtful.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

Washington leads Pittsburgh 42-33-3 all-time in this series between original NFL teams. Washington?s last victory came all the way back in 1991 though, as the Steelers have won six straight games. The last five victories have all been by more than one score.

Last Meeting

Pittsburgh cruised to a 38-16 victory in the 2016 season opener between these two teams. Roethlisberger ended the day with 300 yards and three touchdowns, while DeAngelo Williams ran for 143 yards and two scores. Antonio Brown had eight receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns for the Steelers.

Notable Betting Trends

-- The under has cashed in four of the last five games between these teams
-- Pittsburgh is 6-3 ATS as a favorite in 2020
-- Washington is 1-3 ATS as a dog of seven or more points

Key Injuries

Washington

LB Jared Norris: Hamstring - Probable
S Deshazor Everett: Ankle - Questionable
LB Ryan Anderson: Knee - Questionable
T Cornelius Lucas: Ankle - Questionable

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger: Knee - Probable
DE Stephon Tuitt: COVID - Probable
CB Steven Nelson: Knee - Questionable
RB Jaylen Samuels: Quad - Questionable
RB James Conner: COVID - Questionable
C Maurkice Pouncey: COVID - Questionable
LB Bud Dupree: Knee - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Over-Under: 5-7

Cnotes53 · Dec 7, 2020

Bills vs. 49ers Week 13 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

We get another Monday Night doubleheader this week thanks to all the scheduling changes this league has had recently, but the game that was always slated to be in this spot is the non-conference tilt between the Bills and 49ers.

The two teams come into this game with very different goals, as San Francisco is trying to scratch and claw it's way back to a playoff spot to at least have a shot at defending their NFC title, while Buffalo's trying to fend off the Dolphins in the AFC East race.

Miami is expected to take care of their business rather easily on Sunday in hosting the Bengals, so theoretically, Buffalo could come into this MNF affair tied atop the division. That provides a whole different type of sweat to all those bettors that were certain Buffalo would win the AFC East this year because the Patriots wouldn't.

The latter half of that hypothesis will likely come true, but Buffalo still has their hands full with Miami trying to hunt them down with both teams having very tough home games on deck next week (Buffalo hosts Pittsburgh, Miami hosts KC) with a Week 17 showdown between the two AFC East rivals looking like it may decide the division.

That means we are likely to see Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills teammates quite frequently under the prime time lights this month. Can we start that run with a winner in this MNF game against a Niners team with just as much to fight for right now.

Week 13 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: State Farm Stadium
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Date: Monday, Dec. 7, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

San Francisco seeks back-to-back wins as it battles Buffalo at State Farm Stadium from Arizona. (AP)

Bills-49ers Betting Odds

Spread: 49ers -1
Money-Line: San Francisco -110, Buffalo -110
Total: 47

2020 Betting Stats

Buffalo

Overall: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-3-1 O/U
Road: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 10)
Defense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 18)
Offense YPG: 372.5 (Rank 11)
Defense YPG: 373.1 (Rank 21)

San Francisco

Overall: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U
Home: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.7 (Rank 20)
Defense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 362.9 (Rank 14)
Defense YPG: 315.2 (Rank 6)

Handicapping the Total

With all the injuries the 49ers have dealt with this season, clawing their way back into a playoff spot in the NFC would be quite the huge accomplishment. QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle have both been out since Week 8 for the 49ers, and head coach Kyle Shanahan was hopefully, but non-committal, this week in talking about hopefully getting both of those guys back for the final few weeks of the year.

If that's indeed on the table, San Francisco has got to do their best to make those games mean something for this year, and that means taking care of business each and every week until then. Those two players shouldn't be considered saviours of the organization by any means, but Kittle especially is a huge upgrade at his position.

I bring all this up because we've already seen some early support for the 49ers this week, as an opening number of +2.5 on San Fran has been bet down to it's current standing. Clearly the 49ers side is something bettors have little issue getting behind and if a SF win is on the horizon here, 49ers wins this year have been correlated with San Francisco playing quite well defensively.

San Fran is 2-3 O/U in their five victories this year, but the two 'overs' came in Weeks 2 and 3 of the season during their two-week stay in New York to beat up on the Jets and Giants. Those games barely got 'over' the number with San Francisco scoring 31 and 36 points themselves in those games.

Which brings me to the point totals of those foes the 49ers have vanquished this year. They held the Jets to 13, the Giants to 9, the Rams to 16 and 20 (swept the season series), and the Patriots to 6 points.

That five-game average of 12.8 points allowed in wins is spectacular for the 49ers, and you've got to figure that with far fewer weapons available to them relative to the Bills, any 49ers win will have some correlation to another strong defensive game by them.

Defense is something the Bills have improved on recently, at least in terms of getting off the field on 3rd down. Through their past three games, Buffalo's defense ranks 4th in opponent third down conversion percentage (26.83%), trailing just the Steelers, Giants (oddly enough) and Saints in that category.

For Buffalo to put up those numbers when their three opponents in that stretch were Seattle, Arizona, and the Chargers, it's an improvement that can't be overlooked in the slightest.

The 49ers are just a few spots behind Buffalo in that regard as well, sitting 8th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage over their last three games too (32.43%).

Those defensive numbers for Buffalo tend to get lost in the fact that they've given up Hail Mary completions in each of their last two games overall, costing them a win (and subsequent breathing room in the AFC East) in the process. Add in the fact that Seattle put up 34 on the Bills as well, and the Chargers deserving more than the 17 points they scored a week ago, and the reputation of Buffalo being an 'over' team this season is going to be hard to shake for some.

Buffalo's 7-0-1 O/U run off a win, and 7-3-1 O/U record this year feeds into those 'over' leans already, but in the previous (2) times the Bills have found themselves in the stand alone game spotlight (Tuesday vs Tennessee in Week 5, and Monday in Week 6 vs KC) they put up 16 and 17 points respectively.

A lot more variables went into those two games, not the least of which being they were up against two very good teams there, but this Bills team that most of the market has been waiting on (and anointing) to finally take that next step, always seem to put their worst foot forward when they reach the foot of that step.

Put it all together and the only way to look at this total would be to go low here. Buffalo's 'over' record is in part why this number appears to be a shade to high in my view, as Buffalo's woeful defense from earlier in the year still holds a lot of weight in any narrative surrounding a Bills game.

The fact that Buffalo's recent 3rd down improvement on defense gets lost in the higher scores and inability to defense Hail Mary's is another factor in having this total where it is, but it's also not Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, or Justin Herbert they are going up against. It's Nick Mullens. Enough said.

Under or pass.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 16, 2016 - Buffalo 45 vs. San Francisco 16, Bills -7.5, Over 44
Oct. 7, 2012 - San Francisco 45 vs. Buffalo 3, 49ers -10, Over 45.5
Nov. 30, 2008 - San Francisco 10 at Buffalo 3, 49ers +6.5, Under 43

Handicapping the Side

Can't ignore this strong move the 49ers way and admittedly it does contribute to the 'under' thinking as well on the total.

But when you have a team like Buffalo who you know is going to be the default pick for many on Monday night simply based on team records and having their starting QB, the fact that an opening number of -2.5 on Buffalo never came close to going up to -3 with (likely) majority support is rather telling.

Oddsmakers clearly never wanted to hang a +3 on San Fran up there fearing a wave of 49ers money and it came anyways without even reaching that key number.

It's alright to like the 49ers side using that line move as support, but tough to confidently back them now at a far worse price, with no real opportunity to buy a half-point to artificially get a +3 ticket on San Francisco in hand. Remember, it's the 49ers who are the more desperate team in needing every win they could get right now, and there is always the possibility of Buffalo peaking ahead to that showdown with the undefeated Steelers next week.

Makes this side an easy one to pass on all the way around now, instead looking to go the live betting route in taking points with probably either side if the game flow feels right to do so. It's been three straight ATS wins for Buffalo these past three weeks ? but they've also been outgained in total yards in three of their last four, the lone outlier being the win over Seattle where Buffalo had one more total yard.

If they get outgained by this mash group of 49ers on offense, chances are that early San Francisco money is going to be smiling come Tuesday morning. Let's not forget that Buffalo is also on a 1-4 ATS run against a team with a losing record, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four appearances on MNF too.

Key Injuries

Buffalo

LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
TE Tyler Kroft: Quarantine - Questionable
T Cody Ford: Ankle - Out
WR John Brown: Ankle - Out

San Francisco

RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Probable
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Probable
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Questionable
OL Tom Compton: Concussion - Questionable
CB Jamar Taylor: Knee - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Suspension - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Over-Under: 5-7

Cnotes53 · Dec 7, 2020

Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Giants (+11, ML +420) at Seahawks, 17-12
Browns (+4, ML +180) at Titans, 41-35
Lions (+3, ML +135) at Bears, 34-30

The largest favorites to cover

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals, 19-7
Packers (-8.5) vs. Eagles, 30-16
Colts (-3) at Texans, 26-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers game was crazy if you were a side bettor supporting the visitors. The Eagles fell behind 14-3 at halftime, and 20-3 after 45 minutes. If you had Philadelphia +8.5, it wasn't a great feeling.

However, in the second half, Eagles head coach Doug Pedersen replaced struggling QB Carson Wentz with rookie QB Jalen Hurts, mainly for his mobility due to struggles and injuries along the offensive line. Things were looking up, as Hurts tossed his first NFL touchdown, and the Eagles got a 73-yard punt return from another rookie just 82 seconds later, as WR Jalen Reagor housed it to make it a game, 23-16. The Eagles were covering with 6:30 to go in regulation.

However, Eagles side bettors already know it wouldn't last. RB Aaron Jones found some daylight with just under three minutes remaining. He juked, danced down the sidelines, eluded several tacklers and received key blocks for a highlight-reel 77-yard back-breaking touchdown run to make it 30-16. Suddenly, 'under' (50.5) bettors were sweating. Hurts got the ball back and they were driving in Green Bay territory late. However, Hurts tossed an interception to stymie the drive, so Packers side bettors and under bettors were breathing a sigh of relief.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans game was one to remember. Or one to forget, depending upon your wager.

At halftime, the Colts (-3) led 24-20, so 'over' (50) bettors were feeling overly excited, perhaps even looking ahead to their late-window bets or even bumping them up on an assumed victory. Surely there would be at least seven points for an easy 'over' in the second half, right?

Well, not only did those seven points for the over result never come, we didn't even get any offensive points at all. The offensive spigot was turned off tight, and we saw just one safety in the fourth quarter. After 44 total points in the first 30 minutes, yep, we had just TWO in the second 30 minutes. Unreal loss if you were holding an 'over' ticket.

We should have had an over, though. And Texans side bettors were also left shaking their heads at the end of this one. The Texans had 2nd and goal from the Indianapolis 2, but QB Deshaun Watson fumbled, and the Colts covered it up for the win, cover and they helped the 'under' hang in there, too.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Cincinnati Bengals-Miami Dolphins (43), and the result was never in doubt. The Bengals fired out to a 7-0 lead, as WR Tyler Boyd hauled in a long touchdown from QB Brandon Allen. Unfortunately for the Bengals and their side bettors, the best receiver in stripes was ejected for his part in a brawl.

The game turned from there, as the Dolphins posted six in the second, going into the break down 7-6. It was all Dolphins from there, as they outscored the visitors 13-0 in the second half. Despite a low-scoring 19-7 win, they were able to cover the 10, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Cleveland Browns-Tennessee Titans (54), and the 'over' was never in doubt here. Cleveland took a 10-0 lead after 15 minutes, and they piled up 28 points in the second quarter en route to a 38-7 halftime lead at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

After the Titans outscored the Browns 14-3 in the third quarter, we had a total of 55 points on the board, and 'over' tickets were already good to go. The Titans mounted a late flurry to cut it to 41-35, making moneyline bettors a little nervous, though.

In the first primetime game Sunday night, the Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs (51.5) game, surprisingly, was a defensive battle. The Chiefs had 10 points in the third quarter, but that was the only time either side had a double-digit total in a single quarter. We had just 38 total points on the board for the easy 'under' result.

With some rescheduling, the Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5) game and the originally scheduled Monday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) are still on tap, as is Tuesday's Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens (45) battle.

So far this season the under is 24-14 (63.2%) across 38 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 14

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Patriots hit the road in Week 13 and destroyed the Los Angeles Chargers by a 45-0 count, evening their overall record at 6-6 SU/ATS. Believe it or not, it's the first time this season the Patriots have covered in consecutive games. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for the Patriots, too.

New England is scheduled to stay in the Los Angeles area and they will face the Rams on Thursday night. The Rams are headed back from Arizona with a 38-28 win in tow. The 38 points marked a season high, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four outings. Against AFC East teams, the Rams are 0-2 SU/ATS so far this season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans are coming off a 41-35 loss at home against the Browns. The Jaguars gave it their all in Minnesota, but they fell in overtime against the Vikings. Both sides will meet at TIAA Bank Field.

The Titans have won and covered back-to-back games on the road, winning as underdogs. They'll be favored in this one. Perhaps being favored isn't what they want. Tennessee is just 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four as a favorite.

These teams met back in Week 2, with the Titans hanging on for a 33-30 win over the Jaguars as seven-point favorites, another non-cover and 'over' (44.5) result. The over is 4-0 in the past four for Tennessee, and 9-1-1 across the past 11 for the Titans.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Packers held on for the 30-16 win and cover against the Eagles. It's the first time the Packers have covered in consecutive games, and they've done so as favorite of 7.5 or higher in each outing.

The Lions registered a 34-30 win on the road against the Bears, picking up the victory for interim head coach Darrell Bevell. In case you're scoring at home, interim coaches are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their first game after taking the new reins.

These teams faced each other at Lambeau Field in Week 2, with the Packers doubling up the Lions 42-21 as seven-point favorites as the 'over' (51) connected.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Ravens blasted the Browns by a 38-6 score in Week 1, easily covering a seven-point number as the 'under' (47) connected.

Baltimore will actually be coming off a short week, as they're scheduled to play Tuesday against the Cowboys at M&T Bank Stadium in Balto. The Browns will have two more days to rest and recover. The Browns enter 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS across the past four outings overall.

The weather has been dismal in Cleveland for the past three games at FirstEnergy Stadium. They averaged just 12.7 PPG in the past three home games, played in two games with a wintry mix and windy conditions, and a steady rain last time out in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Looking ahead to Monday's weather forecast, it's supposed to snow for most of the day Sunday, and into Monday morning. It should change over to rain Monday afternoon before the precipitation pulls out. However, we still have a week before the forecast is fine tuned, and if the system slows down, perhaps weather also affects this one, keeping scores down. We'll see.

CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

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