CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack
? Green Bay (-4, 51) vs Tampa Bay in NFC title game
? Kansas City (-3, 54.5) vs Buffalo in AFC title game
? Purdue 80, Penn State 72? PSU is 3-5, hasn?t won since December 8
? Tulsa 58, Memphis 57? Tulsa won 7 of its last eight 8 games.
? Iowa 96, Northwestern 73? Wildcats lost their last five games.
? Virginia Tech 64, Wake Forest 60? Hokies are a surprising 11-2.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 395,372
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?This means everything to me. I didn?t know what was going on. It was a real surprise. It was breathtaking. It felt like I was in a movie or something.?
Oklahoma State basketball player Dee Williams, who was a walk-on and was working at his job at Wal-Mart, when OSU coach Mike Boynton showed up at the Wal-Mart and informed him that he had earned a scholarship to the team. All his teammates were watching on Zoom

Monday?s quiz
Which NFL team did Drew Brees originally play for?

Sunday?s quiz
Buffalo Bills lost 30-13 to Dallas, the last time they were in a Super Bowl, in January 1994

Saturday?s quiz
Of all current NBA players, Dwight Howard has the most games with 20+ points/20+ rebounds, with 51.

**********************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend??.

13) New Orleans Saints lost a home playoff game Sunday, third year in a row they did that, but they?ve got nothing on the Kansas City Chiefs. From 1995-2017, the Chiefs went 0-7 in playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, an amazing display of playoff futility.

Over a 23-year period, they went 0-7 in home playoff games. Oy.

Last year?s Super Bowl title quashed those bad memories, but now all Chief fans can stress out this week about Patrick Mahomes? concussion.

12) They mentioned a cool stat Sunday that I had never heard of before; from 2012-15, Seattle Seahawks led at one point or another in 70 consecutive games, which is the all-time record. Right now, Kansas City has led in 60 consecutive games, so the record is within reach.

11) When I was a kid, I learned how to do math in my head by doing batting averages; if Sal Bando went 4-13 for a weekend, I knew that was .308. if Catfish Hunter gave up two runs in seven innings, I knew that was a 2.57 ERA. Stuff like that; decades later, when I was an adult, I actually got a job promotion because of my math skills. For real, a big promotion.

So when I see the Big EAST Conference has five teams in the midwest, it saddens me; how can kids learn geography if they think Nebraska is in the east?

? Xavier is in Cincinnati
? Creighton is in Omaha
? DePaul is in Chicago
? Marquette is in Milwaukee
? Butler is in Indianapolis

None of those cities are close to the east; they?re midwestern cities.

Big East needs to find a better name for the league, for education?s sake.

10) Houston Cougars are 11-1, with a win over Texas Tech; all 15 of their players have already tested positive for COVID at some point this season. They?ve got a shot at going a long way in March/Mask Madness.

9) Ivy League didn?t play basketball this winter, which means one less automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and one more at-large bid. Not sure what criteria will be used; some teams haven?t played in a while:

? 8-1 Villanova is a top 10 team; they haven?t played since December 23
? 7-1 Saint Louis hasn?t played a league game yet; they haven?t played since December 23.

When the bubble teams come more into focus, it?ll be fun to see how their resumes contrast.

8) College basketball upsets this weekend:
? Northern Arizona (+12) 62, Montana 58
? California (+11.5) 72, Utah 63
? Butler (+9) 70, Creighton 66
? Wm & Mary (+9) 69, Drexel 64 (Sunday)
? Georgia (+7.5) 78, Ole Miss 74
? IUPUI (+7) 65, Northern Kentucky 63

7) There are couple of very bad basketball teams in the Mountain West; so far this season, favorites of 15+ points are 8-1-1 ATS in conference games.

6) Odd Fact of the Day: Starting lineup for the Wisconsin Badgers is older than the starting lineup for the NBA?s Chicago Bulls.

5) James Harden made his debut for the Brooklyn Nets Saturday night; he put up 32 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists in the Nets? 122-115 win over Orlando. Not a bad opening act.

4) Sunday will be Aaron Rodgers? 5th NFC title game, but the first one played at Lambeau Field; Green Bay lost the conference championship in Santa Clara LY to the 49ers.

3) Los Angeles Chargers didn?t have to look far for their next coach; they hired Brandon Staley, who was the Rams? defensive coordinator this past season. Staley is 38, was a coordinator for one season; he comes from the Vic Fangio coaching tree.

Curious who his offensive coordinator will be, seeing how Sean McVay runs Rams? offense, so he?ll be poaching someone off another coaching staff.

2) Kansas City 22, Browns 17:
? Mahomes (concussion) was KO?d in 3rd quarter; Chad Henne finished up at QB.
? Browns lost a goal-line fumble with 1:34 in first half, which turned out to be damaging.
? Chiefs outgained Cleveland 438-308; they host the Bills Sunday night.

1) Tampa Bay 30, New Orleans 20:
? Saints are first team since ?86-?88 Bears to lose home playoff game 3 years in a row.
? Brees threw three INT?s; New Orleans was minus-4 in turnovers.
? Buccaneers go to Lambeau Field for the NFC title game Sunday.

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Conference Championship Odds: Sharp Money and Line Moves
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes went down with a concussion in the third quarter against Cleveland, but the Chiefs hung on behind backup Chad Henne, and indications are that Mahomes will play in this weekend's AFC Championship game.

The NFL season is one step from the Super Bowl, NFL conference championship odds are on the board, and action is already flowing in on both games. The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL conference championship opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Conference Championship Odds

These are the current NFL Conference Championship odds. Click on each matchup in the table below to get updated in-depth information on the opening lines, sharp money, public betting and odds movement as we get closer to kickoff.

Buccaneers at Packers 3:05 p.m. ET Sunday Packers -3.5 51
Bills at Chiefs 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday Chiefs -3 54.5

Buccaneers at Packers Odds

Opening line
Packers -4.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
As the NFC's No. 1 seed, Green Bay is right where it expected to be and surely where it wants to be: at Lambeau Field in late January for the NFC Championship Game, against a team accustomed to playing in much warmer conditions. The Packers advanced with a 32-18 divisional playoff win over the Rams on Saturday night.

Meanwhile, fifth-seeded Tampa Bay traveled to No. 2 seed New Orleans and knocked out the Saints 30-20 Sunday night. So while the warm-weather Buccaneers face the challenge of chilly conditions in Green Bay, quarterback Tom Brady ? with his two-decade dynasty in New England ? is no stranger to foul weather.

"We opened Packers -4.5, and the money came pouring in immediately on Tampa Bay. Not unlike last week, when we opened the Saints -5.5 and were inundated with Bucs money," Murray said Sunday evening. "This will be a huge-handle game with great write on both sides. Both teams are extremely popular with bettors. Right now, we are down to Packers -4, and the money continues to come in on Tampa Bay."

And the line continued to move, too, dropping to Packers -3.5 less than an hour after going up. The SuperBook certainly wants to see the Bucs vanquished, with Super Bowl liability now looming larger.

"The Bucs are the one team left in the Super Bowl pool that we lose a big number to," Murray said. "We lose on them in the NFC pool, as well. It?s definitely something we will have to keep an eye on this week and potentially three weeks from now, if they are able to beat the Packers."

Bills at Chiefs Odds

Opening line
Chiefs -4, Over/Under 56

Why the line moved
AFC Championship odds were all over the map Sunday afternoon/evening, as oddsmakers tried to ascertain the status of superstar Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In Sunday's divisional clash with Cleveland, Mahomes suffered a concussion in the third quarter, but Kansas City hung on behind Chad Henne to claim a 22-17 victory. Buffalo reached the AFC title game with a 17-3 stifling of Baltimore on Saturday night.

With the Chiefs holding a 19-3 halftime lead against the Browns, SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman posted AFC Championship Game odds of Chiefs -4/total 56. Then Mahomes got hurt and the AFC title game came off the board, going back up after Kansas City clinched the win over Cleveland. The new numbers: Chiefs -2.5, with a total of 51.

It didn't take long for the line to go up to -3, and the total jumped all the way to 55.5 within about 90 minutes, after postgame indications were that Mahomes was doing well.

"We certainly expect Mahomes to play next Sunday. We moved the line up to -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive," Murray said Sunday night. "We had a respected player take Bills +3 (-110) and we moved to Bills +3 (-120). Most of the tickets have been on the Bills so far, although the biggest bet yet was one for $20,000 on Chiefs -3 (even). The public likes both of these teams, even though the Chiefs continue to let the bettors down. They failed to cover yet again today."

The line would look far different for the AFC Championship Game if early indications for Mahomes weren't favorable.

"Mahomes is going to play, but if he had been knocked out completely, the Bills would be a decent favorite next week. More than a field goal," Murray said. "Some of our guys in the room made it Bills -7. I think that?s a little extreme, but it gives you an idea of just how much of a drop-off there is from Mahomes to Henne."

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Conference Championship Betting Tips: Bet Now, Bet Later
Jason Logan

Tom Brady has the Bucs facing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, playing on what could be a frozen field at Lambeau Field this Sunday.

The wildest NFL season in history is down to its final four teams with betting lines for the AFC and NFC Championships hitting the board Sunday.

But just when you thought the 2020-21 campaign couldn?t get any nuttier, the best player in the league is a question mark for Championship Weekend. That could leave the odds for the AFC title game looking very different come Sunday.

Getting the best of the number is always the sharpest NFL betting strategy, especially when there are only two games on the board. These are our top NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now and which ones to bet later.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5): Bet Now

Patrick Mahomes? status for the AFC Championship Game has gamblers tuning into Kansas City sports talk radio, getting cozy with local beat reporters, and even following Mahomes? fiance on Instagram. Anything to get that edge.

As of Sunday night, the chatter ? at least from the medical expertise of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid ? is that Mahomes is OK and ?passed all the deals that he needed to pass.? Whatever the hell that means.

While that may not be an official medical thumbs up, it was enough to slide the opening spread of Kansas City -1 (which played ping pong between K.C. -1 and +1 for a few minutes) to -2.5 and -3, depending on the book.

The lookahead line for this potential matchup climbed as high as K.C. -5.5 at offshores shops after the Bills? listless win over the Baltimore Ravens Saturday. And midway through the Browns-Chiefs game on Sunday, some Vegas shops were hanging an early spread of -4 before Mahomes left due to a concussion in the third quarter.

If you?re buying into the coach speak and early line moves and think Mahomes is back under center next Sunday, get this one now?especially under the key number of a field goal, although it will cost you as much as -125 juice. Or better yet, grab Kansas City moneyline as low as -150 and put your mind at ease when it comes to any spread movement between now and Sunday?s 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff.

If Mahomes gets the green light, expect this spread to go through a field goal and close somewhere close to -4, as Buffalo has looked far from dominant in its two playoff wins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers: Bet Later

The Buccaneers pulled a Randy Orton and sent Drew Brees out to pasture (possibly) in the Divisional Round, forcing four turnovers and sticking that mighty New Orleans offense in mud in the second half.

Tampa Bay allowed only 190 passing yards and checked Brees to 19-of-34 passing with one touchdown to three interceptions. In fact, 56 of those total passing yards came on a TD bomb from Jameis Winston. Now, the Bucs? fifth-ranked pass defense in DVOA at Football Outsiders turns its attention to Aaron Rodgers.

Green Bay was a 3-point favorite on the lookahead line before Sunday?s Divisional Round game and hit the board as official 3.5-point chalk on the opening line at most books (although the Superbook in Las Vegas opened Packers -4.5 and were instantly hit with Tampa action). With the forecast for Lambeau calling for classic Cheesehead weather, early money moved the juice on the Packers to -3.5 (-115) and some shops are already dealing -4.

If you?re not afraid of a little snow and are backing the Buccos in the NFC Championship, wait it out and see if you can get Brady & Co. at +4 or more.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers (Under 52): Bet Now

The Packers take on another hard-hitting defense in the Buccaneers this Sunday after laying waste to the L.A. Rams' vaunted stop unit in the Divisional Round. But it?s not just Tampa Bay that could be working against the points in the NFC Championship.

The extended forecast for Green Bay, Wisconsin is calling for snow and wind (gusts up to 24 mph) with temperatures in the low 20s (with a feels-like temp of 14 degrees) this Sunday. That could shorten the deep pass attacks of both of these explosive playbooks and force some miscues on offense.

The Packers and Bucs could lean on the run games more if the wind and visibility play a problem. And while Tom Brady is used to these bad weather games, his current offense isn?t. Tampa is a vertical route-running team that thrives on air yards (third in NFL in completed air yards) rather than short passes and yards after the catch - standard gears for slick, snowy surfaces.

The total hit the board as high as 52 points at some books while others led with 51.5. Given all the hype around the potential ?Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field?, the Under could be the popular play out the gates. If you?re on board with a lower-scoring NFC title game, get ahead of that move now. But as always, keep an eye on the forecast as there?s an entire week for this mess to blow over.

 

[Cnotes53]

AFC Championship Betting Line History

AFC Championship Betting

The AFC Championship is one of two title games played on an annual basis in the National Football League (NFL), which is America?s top professional football league. The top two teams from American Football Conference (AFC) will meet in late January at the venue of the highest seed.

The NFL Playoffs begin with 12 teams, six from the AFC and six from the National Football Conference (NFC). The winner of those AFC and NFC Championship games will meet in the Super Bowl, which is played a neutral venue every season. The 2020 finale will take place at Hard Rock Stadium from Miami Gardens, Florida on Feb. 2, 2020.

Homefield edge in AFC Championship

Since the AFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 35-15 record in the title game.

In the last 10 years, hosts have gone 8-2 (80%) in the AFC Championship. During this span, bettors have seen their fair share of close calls and blowouts as five games were decided by double digits and the other five by six points or less.

Of the 16 AFC franchises, the New England Patriots have won the most titles with 11. They've gone 7-1 at home while also producing a 4-3 mark in title games played on the road. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos have both captured eight AFC Championships apiece. Since this format began in 1970, five current teams from the AFC have not been able to win the title and earn a trip to the Super Bowl.

New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns
Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans

AFC Championship Betting Results

In the first 50 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 36-14 straight up and 29-20-1 against the spread.

There have been seven games where the favorite has won but it did not win by enough points to cover the spread.

2018 - New England (-7.5) 24 Jacksonville 20
2012 - New England (-7) 23 Baltimore 20
2008 - New England (-14) 21 San Diego 12
1996 - Pittsburgh (-12) 20 Indianapolis 16
1992 - Buffalo (-11) 10 Denver 7
1978 - Denver (-3.5) 20 Oakland 17
1976 - Pittsburgh (-6) 16 Oakland 10

AFC Championship Over Under Results

Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'over/under' results have gone 17-17 in the title game. Over the last nine seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-3 run in this conference title game but Kansas City has helped the 'over' go 2-0 the past two years.

There have been six totals in AFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and we've seen a stalemate (3-3) with the total results. That includes the 2019 installment as Kansas City defeated Tennessee 35-24 from Arrowhead Stadium.

AFC Championship Line History

The AFC Championship betting history covers the first 50 matchups of the conference finale, focusing on the two teams, the betting lines, the final score and the sports betting result which lists the favorite-underdog outcome and the ?over-under? result for the majority of the games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFC Championship History

NFC Championship Betting

The NFC Championship is one of two title games played on an annual basis in the National Football League (NFL), which is America?s top professional football league. The top two teams from National Football Conference (NFC) will meet in late January at the venue of the highest seed.

The NFL Playoffs begin with 12 teams, six from the NFC and six from the American Football Conference (AFC). The winner of those NFC and AFC Championship games will meet in the Super Bowl, which is played a neutral venue every season. The 2020 finale will take place at Hard Rock Stadium from Miami Gardens, Florida on Feb. 2, 2020.

Homefield edge in NFC Championship

Since the NFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 33-17 record in the title game.

In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in this title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record in the NFC Championship. Those last four wins by the road teams weren't easy as the victories came by seven points or less and three were decided by exactly three points.

Of the 16 NFC franchises, the Dallas Cowboys have won the most conference titles with 8. The franchise often known as "America's Team" in the United States has gone 4-1 at home and 4-5 on the road but the last NFC Championship for the popular club came in 1995.

The San Francisco 49ers have won six NFC titles and this team also holds the record for most losses in the conference title game with nine. Right behind the club from California is the Washington Redskins and New York Giants, who have each captured five NFC Championships in their franchise history.

Since this format began in 1970, 15 of the current 16 NFC teams have earned a trip to the Super Bowl. The lone franchise not to capture a NFC Championship is the Detroit Lions.

NFC Championship Betting Results

In the first 20 games of the NFC Championship, favorites have gone 33-17 straight up and 27-22-1 against the spread.

There have been six games in the NFC Championship where the favorite has won but failed to cover the closing point-spread.

2015 - Seattle (-8.5) 28 Green Bay 22 (OT)
2010 - New Orleans (-4) 31 Minnesota 28 (OT)
2000 - St. Louis (-14.5) 11 Tampa Bay 6
1984 - Washington (-10.5) 24 San Francisco 21
1982 - San Francisco (-3) 28 Dallas 27
1975 - Minnesota (-4) 14 L.A. Rams 10

Two of the above NFC Championship games where the point-spread mattered also went to overtime (OT) and the home team both won those matches. We have seen six NFC title games go to overtime and the road team has gone 4-2 overall.

The 2018-19 NFC Championship was one of the title games that was tied after regulation. In that outcome, the Los Angeles Rams defeated the New Orleans Saints 26-23 from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Louisiana.

NFC Championship Over Under Results

Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 19-14 in the title game. Over the last six seasons, the 'over' is on a 5-1 run in this conference title game.

There have been five totals in NFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and the attacks lived up to the expectations as the 'over' has gone 4-1. The most recent NFC edition between the Rams and Saints was one of those contests and that game stayed 'under' the total. Even though that game saw an extra session (OT), total bettors have seen the 'over' go 4-2 in the six NFC Championships that went to overtime.

NFC Championship Line History

The NFC Championship betting history covers the first 50 matchups of the conference finale, focusing on the two teams, the betting lines, the final score and the sports betting result which lists the favorite-underdog outcome and the ?over-under? result for the majority of the games.

 

[Cnotes53]

311TAMPA BAY -312 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 41-15 ATS (24.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

313BUFFALO -314 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 24

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TAMPA BAY (13 - 5) at GREEN BAY (14 - 3) - 1/24/2021, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 123-88 ATS (+26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 208-150 ATS (+43.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 79-51 ATS (+22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (15 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (15 - 2) - 1/24/2021, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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Sunday, January 24

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
Kansas City is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not - Championship Game Angles
Matt Blunt

NFC & AFC Championship Betting Angles

All it took to put the kibosh on fading NFL playoff teams that won SU but didn't cover was an appearance in last week's Hot and Not, as Buffalo and Tampa Bay won and covered with ease in the Divisional round.

Both teams saw the games drastically shift in their favor thanks to being on the right end of a turnover, and wouldn't be something to see the Bills final roadblock to a Super Bowl title being Tom Brady yet again, this time on his new home field and a one-game, winner-take-all scenario.

Can't imagine that will be the most fun two weeks for any Bills Mafia member out there leading up to the Super Bowl.

A Buffalo-Tampa matchup is only one of four potential Super Bowl outcomes we can get, and in terms of when the NFL started using the seeding method for the 1975-76 season leading up to Super Bowl 10, we've got a decent enough sample size to where we've had both #1 seeds make it to the Conference Championship and what has resulted.

We will start there, but we can't forget the ideas that have been scattered in these pieces throughout the season, as now that we are at the stage of a Super Bowl berth being the stakes, I'm sure some teams have a few more checks in those boxes than others.

Why not start with the big one though, and depending who you're a fan/backer of, you may want to hold off any AFC Championship bets before the NFC Championship game is finished.

Who's Hot

Since seeding began in 1975-76, 25 of the 45 playoff seasons have seen both #1 seeds make it to the Conference Finals. Only once in those 25 seasons have both #1 seeds lost in the Conference Championship (2018 Kansas City and New Orleans)

Really quite interesting to see the history of this one, as prior to the losses by KC and New Orleans in 2018 ? two games that had unique endings to say the least ? the league had been on a run of five straight times a #1 vs #1 matchup was possible in the Super Bowl, they got it.

Depending on what number you use the Patriots at in their Super Bowl 49 win over Seattle (pick, +1), the underdog in those Super Bowls was also 5-0 SU and ATS. Bad news for the favorite in a Kansas City/Green Bay Super Bowl that would be a year too late for me.

But should quarterabck Tom Brady and the Buccaneers get by Green Bay in the early game on Sunday, history suggests the Chiefs will be Brady's opponent.

Earlier in the year I touched on why that may not be the case though either, and while these past 25 times haven't always gone in chronological order as the potential betting spot we'd have here with a Tampa win early, it does go to show that a Buffalo/Tampa Super Bowl hasn't been the matchup that's connected really at all in the history of the league.

Let's not forget about an offside call negating a Brady interception and no pass interference flag thrown negating what could have been a Saints win in that lone year no #1's made it to the Super Bowl after each making the Conference Finals.

It could have easily been perfect in that regard, but Brady was already on the winning end of half of that 2018 outcome. Him being the last obstacle for Buffalo in a rare ?both #1's make Conference Finals, none make Super Bowl? would be the story of all stories, and having two weeks to tell it would bring out quite the takes.

A Green Bay win in the first game though leaves the history on Kansas City getting through floating around 50%.

Obviously the status of QB Patrick Mahomes is going to be a hot topic daily this week, and even for as odd of a week as it was for the first meeting between Buffalo and KC this season - a scheduled TNF game got pushed to Monday afternoon ? there is head-to-head film that will get poured over as well.

How much that changes on a normal week and Mahomes status in doubt is a vast range of possibilities right now, but any Bills Mafia member may want to pull for the Packers in the first game just in case. Brady hates the cold weather now doesn't he?

Why would Buffalo want to be up against a 96% historical angle against them, right?

Who's Not

13 of those 25 times we've had a #1 vs # Super Bowl; the AFC is 4-9 SU in those Super Bowl games

Another way to say that if we do get that KC/GB Super Bowl, betting on a repeat may not be the way to go. I touched on the run for underdogs in those #1 vs #1 games, and a healthy Mahomes vs Rodgers matchup likely has the Packers in that underdog role as well as being the NFC representative.

Two of the four wins from the AFC side came a long time ago in Super Bowls 10 and 18, but New England and Denver did do it back-to-back in 2014-15, but even New England's win over the Seahawks there could have gone a much different way.

The most recent meeting of #1's came when Philadelphia upset New England in Super Bowl 52, a much happier time around the Eagles football team then it appears to be now.

Oddly enough, three of the four AFC teams to win it do currently reside in Kansas City's AFC West division (Raiders in SB 10 and 18, Broncos in SB 50), but that's a small string to hold onto, considering the Chiefs are in that still rough 10-25 SU role for NFL playoff teams that won SU but lost ATS just to even get to the game.

Throw on Mahomes health being a question now, and Chiefs bettors that are already creeping towards the exit door on futures tickets might just want to step on through and move on.

That's not all that's working against the Chiefs this week.

Let's put together all the pieces from the year (and beyond) to see what comes out now that the Final Four are known.

Hot & Not - Recap and React

From Week 2: Since realignment in 2002, 28 of the 36 Super Bowl participants started the year 1-0 SU

Bad news for: Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers are the only one of the four teams to have started this year out 0-1 SU, as a Week 1 loss to the Saints was the first piece of the double revenge puzzle Tampa Bay completed last week.

Brady was responsible for two of the four Super Bowl titles those eight teams that did start out 0-1 SU eventually wo

From Week 13: Over the past 10 years, 19 of the 20 teams to make the Super Bowl had 4 losses or less after Thanksgiving

Bad news for: Tampa Bay

Another knock for the Bucs as they were 7-5 SU on the Wednesday after the holiday weekend (Dec 2, 2020), with the Packers, Bills and Chiefs all sitting on three or fewer losses.

Interestingly enough, only KC when they sat guys in Week 17 has lost since then, as Buffalo enters Conference Championship weekend on an eight-game winning streak, Kansas City (1 win), Green Bay on a seven-game winning streak, and Tampa riding a six-gamer.

From Week 14: Only 2 of 18 Super Bowl matchups since realignment have been a rematch from the regular season

Bad news for: Kansas City-Tampa Bay Super Bowl

A Mahomes/Brady Super Bowl would have football fans everywhere gushing over the matchup of the GOAT vs a guy that's well on his way down a similar path and looking to defend his title at the same time.

But as I said at the time, these regular season rematches just don't particularly happen in the Super Bowl, that is unless Tom Brady is involved of course.

7 of the 18 Super Bowls since realignment have been between two teams who played the same ?direction? of the non-conference division.

This was a wild one to come across in my research, and I know it's still likely not explained the best in the header as my editors here at VI can attest to rereading it multiple times on the first submission. But I am actually thrilled to see it's alive and well to be a possibility this year, and not just one way either.

A Buffalo-Tampa Bay matchup in the Super Bowl, may have the #1 theory when both are in the semi's and at least one making the Super Bowl working against them, but both teams dealt with the ?West? division in the opposite conference, the same thing hurting a KC/Tampa Bay potential rematch scenario.

That leaves a Green Bay-KC matchup in the Super Bowl, which would be both #1's as well, with the Packers playing the AFC South in non-conference play, and KC going through the NFC South. For the lifespan of this data, seeing one of those matchups would be great, detrimental to my own betting bankroll or not.

From Week 17: 17 of the past 20 Super Bowl participants won SU in Week 17

Bad news for Kansas City

Here is the other tough news to hear for Chiefs backers, but it's not like you can hate on them for resting their starters with nothing to play for in Week 17.

It's just been one of those historical oddities where teams that aren't good enough with reserves to win on Week 17 seem to foreshadow a tough end to the season, and teams that aren't good enough to tank and back into the playoffs off a loss don't seem to be long for the postseason either (see Chicago and Pittsburgh this year alone).

Mahomes status could end up being that asterisk should the Chiefs stumble without him on the field, but this is going to be a tough week for Chiefs fans to sleep regardless.

From SB 54: 22 (now 23) of the 29 (now 30) Super Bowl winners since 1990 made the playoffs the previous year

Bad news for: Tampa Bay

Massive roster change over or a big jump up in talent/improvement as ?too much, too fast? tends to be behind this historical perspective being so strong, but Tampa is in the interesting case of being in the massive roster change category, and blatantly going out and trying to ?buy? their way to a title.

The Bucs embraced their win it now mentality and if they get through all the other stuff and make it to the Super Bowl, being one of the few organizations to win it all after a year of no playoffs wouldn't be the most surprising thing for this 2020 Tampa team to do.

Since the start of the 2000 season, SB teams that had the QB with more regular season passing TD's are (now) 6-14 SU and 0-5 SU the past five years.

Bad news for: Both NFC Teams

File this one away for when we actually get the two teams left standing, but in order, the list goes Aaron Rodgers (48 TD), Tom Brady (40), Patrick Mahomes (38) and Josh Allen (37). Good news for either of the AFC teams then, as both will be on the lower end of the spectrum there no matter who they play.

Hot & Not 2020 Summary

Without being too committed this early in the week, it's not hard to figure out from this piece on the historical perspectives on how these Super Bowl matchups come to be, the Super Bowl matchup I'm already leaning towards.

The majority of those trends focus on who NOT to be backing, and when the most common answers to the team(s) that fit those roles are either Tampa Bay and/or Kansas City, the only answer that's left is us seeing a Green Bay vs Buffalo Super Bowl this year.

90%+ of the time we at least one #1 seed in the Super Bowl when both make the Championship Game, and it's only both #1's a little better than 50% of the time.

There are enough knocks on KC and/or a KC/Tampa Super Bowl that going with Buffalo makes plenty of sense even before getting to the Mahomes health question, and that's how it likely stays for me this week.

Going to be hard for that thought to change much this week from where I'm sitting, even with the most positive Mahomes health news there could be.

I am interested to see how the market reacts the rest of this week, though, as I'm sure positive Mahomes news only gives out a better number on the Bills.

Tampa could end up in the public underdog role as well, which makes Green Bay all the more attractive to my eyes.

 

[Udog]

NFL Conference Championship Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is in concussion protocol, but oddsmakers expect him to play against the Bills in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Kansas City is a 3-point home favorite.

With the dust settled on the divisional round, NFL conference championship odds are up, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, and it's very big information this time around, with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in concussion protocol

This week?s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Conference Championship Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes exited the divisional playoff game against Cleveland in the third quarter after suffering a concussion. Postgame comments implied that Mahomes was doing well, but again, he is in concussion protocal, so he isn't yet a lock to suit up in Sunday's AFC Championship Game against Buffalo.

The SuperBook at Westgate opened the Chiefs -4 against the Bills, posting that number at halftime of the Browns-Chiefs game, when Kansas City led 19-3. The line was taken off the board after Mahomes got hurt, then went back up postgame at Chiefs -2.5 and quickly moved to -3. The total initially opened at 56, reposted at 51 and shot to 55.5 Sunday evening. By Monday evening, it was down to 53.5.

"Mahomes is going to play, but if he had been knocked out completely, the Bills would be a decent favorite next week. More than a field goal," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. "Some of our guys in the room made it Bills -7. I think that?s a little extreme, but it gives you an idea of just how much of a drop-off there is from Mahomes to (Chad) Henne."

Buffalo Bills: As of Monday evening, there was no injury news to report from Bills camp.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Wideout Antonio Brown, injured during Sunday's victory at New Orleans, had an MRI on his knee Monday. His status is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship Game against Green Bay. Oddsmakers and bettors weren't deterred by that info, with The SuperBook opening the Bucs +4.5 and quickly moving to +3.5 Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers: Rookie running back AJ Dillon (quad) is questionable for the NFC title game against Tampa Bay. But the Packers have plenty of firepower ahead of Dillon at running back, so his availability isn't impacting the spread. Green Bay opened -4.5 and dropped to -3.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook, due to early action on the Buccaneers.


Conference Championship Weather

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: With an evening kickoff in Kansas City, the early forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s. There's a 50 percent chance of rain showers, along with light winds of 5-10 mph. The total on this clash has been all over the place, mostly due to the uncertain status of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. The SuperBook initially opened at 56, then the game came off the board due to Mahomes' injury. The total reposted at 51 and quickly moved up to 55.5 Sunday evening, with bettors anticipating Mahomes will play this week. By Monday evening, the total ticked down to 53.5, perhaps in part a nod to possible rainy conditions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers: The early forecast for Sunday in Green Bay calls for temperatures in the mid-to-upper 20s, along with a 40 percent chance of snow and light winds of 5-10 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 51 and nudged to 50.5 Monday morning.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Tampa Bay (13-5) @ Green Bay (14-3)
? Buccaneers are on road for 3rd week in row, 5th time in six weeks.
? Tom Brady has a 32-11 career record in playoff games.
? Buccaneers won last six games overall, scoring 34.8 ppg.
? Last six games, Bucs converted 53-1125 third down plays (47.3%).
? Tampa Bay is 13-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
? Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games.

? Last seven years, #1 seeds are 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS in this round.
? Green Bay won seven in row, nine of last ten games overall.
? Packers scored 33.1 ppg in their last eight games,
? Rodgers is 1-3 in NFC title games, but all those games were on road.
? Last three Green Bay games went over the total.
? In their three losses this year, Packers gave up 38-28-34 points.

? Packers lost 38-10 in Tampa in Week 6; GB averaged 2.7 yards/pass attempt.
? Green Bay won three of last four series games.
? Tampa Bay lost last two visits here, 35-26/26-20
? Brady split two visits here, winning 35-0 in ?06, losing 26-21 in ?14.

Buffalo (15-3) @ Kansas City (15-2)
? Bills won 10 of its last 11 games, covered nine of last ten.
? Buffalo outscored last eight opponents 169-80 in first half.
? Bills won last three road games, scored 37.5 ppg in last four.
? Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
? Over is 6-3-2 in their last 11 games.
? Buffalo is trying to go to Super Bowl for first time since 1993.

? Mahomes hasn?t officially been cleared, but is expected to play here.
? Chiefs won 11 of last 12 games, but are 0-8-1 ATS in last nine games.
? Chiefs are 9-8 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 3-6 TY.
? Last nine games, Kansas City allowed 25.2 ppg
? Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
? Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games; now they?ve won four in a row.

? Chiefs won three of last four series games; last meeting was 2017.
? Bills won four of their last six visits to Arrowhead.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Championship Games
Micah Roberts

Bettors backing off the Chiefs -- again

If you told me back in September that the Chiefs would go 14-2 in the regular season, quarterback Patrick Mahomes was healthy, and they would be only -3 at home in the AFC Championship Game, I wouldn't hesitate to bet the defending Super Bowl champions.

But that?s the scenario we?re looking at this week even with news coming Friday that Mahomes had passed concussion protocol and will start on Sunday.

A couple of Nevada books are -3.5 but the majority are all still -3.

Mahomes was lost midway through the third quarter last week in the Chiefs' 22-17 home win over the Divisional Rond with a concussion and oddsmakers and bookmakers made his value to the number as low as 5 points and as high as -points, but started the game at -2.5 with the possibility he might not play.

But nobody believed he wouldn?t play and posted the number that way. And so far with a full week of action, the game is being bet very even everywhere.

?Right now, straight bets on the point-spread is pretty even,? William Hill?s Nick Bogdanovich said.

?We?re a little high on Bills money-line (+155), but that?s to be expected. I think this one will be a two-way action game as well. I do think Mahomes will play and that this game will go back up when they announce it. It?ll get to 3.5, 4 tops. But I still think there will be Bills money because the Chiefs haven?t covered a game in so long.?

The Chiefs have won 24 of the last 25 starts Mahomes has made, but they?ve covered just once in their last nine games. Bettors want so badly to bet the Chiefs, but they?re tired of losing every week with them on the spread.

?We posted the Chiefs -4 before Mahomes got injured and then reposted -2.5 afterward and were bumped up to -3, but not really any sharp plays either way on the game,? said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.

The Bills have won their last eight games and have gone 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10. The public has noticed and has been happy taking the points this week.

William Hill books have had 53% of the tickets written on Buffalo as well as 56% of the cash.

The total has dropped from 54.5 down to 54.

The Bills average score this season was 31-23, or 54, and they?ve gone over in their last four games as the underdog. They also went over in 12 of their 18 games this season.

It?s the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses in the NFL hooking up for a trip to the Super Bowl.


Pressing the Packers

The first game on Sunday will have Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers hooking up in the playoffs for the first time ever. It?s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Green Bay Packers.

?Sharps took Tampa Bay at +4.5, +4, and +3.5 and when we went to 3 we started seeing Packers money,? Kornegay said. ?We?re up to Packers -3.5 now.?

Jason Scott of BetMGM said they?ve taken a couple of six-figure bets on the Packers (-3) and they?re currently at -3.5 -120, the highest number out there. William Hill is heavy on the Packers as well and sits at -3.5 flat.

?We took a couple of big bets on the Packers, so we?re pretty high on them right now,? said Bogdanovich.

?But it?s still so early, you never know what?s going to happen in this game. Tampa?s drawn a lot of love all year long, and people will like taking 3.5 as opposed to 3. I still don?t think it?ll be a big decision one way or the other.?

Bogdanovich may be exaggerating a bit on the risk because they?re loaded with Packers risk with 78% of the tickets on the Packers and 83% of the cash. By the time this game kicks off, every book will be rooting for the Bucs.

The SuperBook dropped the Packers money-line down to -180/+160.

There?s a possibility of snow with game time temperatures forecasted to be 25 degrees, but the SuperBook total has gone up from 51 to 51.5.

The Bucs have won their last six (4-2 ATS) and scored 30+ points in their last five games but the competition could be questioned with five games against losing teams and the other versus a beat-up Drew Brees-led New Orleans team.

Meanwhile, the Packers have won their last seven (5-2 ATS) and the strength of their opponents isn't great either.

The pair met in Week 6 on Oct. 18 at Tampa Bay and the Bucs gave the Packers a 10-0 lead before reeling off 38 unanswered points.

They rattled quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as he appeared to check out mentally the rest of the game.

Green Bay closed as a short favorite (-2.5) in that loss after starting the season with a 4-0 record.

 

[Cnotes53]

LOOKING TO GO 4 - 0............21 - 3 AT THE END OF DAY !!

GOOD LUCK GUYS AND GALS !

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK


NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:


01/17/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/16/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/10/2021 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail




TOTALS.............17-3-0......85.00%.............+ 68.50

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at GB 03:05 PM

GB -3.5 **********

U 52.0

 

[Cnotes53]

BUF at KC 06:40 PM

BUF +3.0**********

O 54.5 **********

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK

NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:

01/24/2021 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
01/17/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/16/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/10/2021 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail


TOTALS.............18-6-0......75.00%.............+ 57.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack
NFL teams rolling over most $$$ to next year?s salary cap:
$30,366,604? Cleveland
26,686,546? NJ Jets
25,443,439? Dallas
23,481,404? Jacksonville
22,756,775? Philadelphia
19,571,247? New England

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 418,982
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?It wasn?t my decision. Understand the thinking?..but, it wasn?t my decision.?
Aaron Rodgers, talking about the FG Green Bay kicked with 2:05 left

Monday?s quiz
Who was the Chiefs? coach before Andy Reid?

Sunday?s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

Saturday?s quiz
Hank Aaron finished his major league career with the Milwaukee Brewers

************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend

13) Opening line for the Super Bowl: Chiefs -3, total of 57

12) Buccaneers are the first team other than a #1 or #2-seed to make the Super Bowl since the #4-seed Ravens won the Super Bowl eight years ago. Last time a #5-seed made the Super Bowl was 2007, when the Giants won the Super Bowl.

11) Why do NFL studio shows have five people? Halftimes are 12-15 minutes; there isn?t enough time for everyone to make valid points. Should have a host, two former players/analysts on for halftimes and add a gambling/fantasy guy for pre-game shows.

10) Rutgers 74, Indiana 70:
? Scarlet Knights win for 2nd time in last eight games.
? Indiana made 10-16 on arc, only 14-40 inside arc.

9) Detroit Lions hired former Chargers? coach Anthony Lynn as defensive coordinator.

8) I had Pepperidge Farm Goldfish Sunday, first time in a long time; Pretty, pretty good.

7) More disappointing TV news: Weeks before the planned start of spring training, MASN is reportedly going to cut back their Orioles and Nationals TV coverage this season, getting rid of pre-game and post-game shows. MASN also plans to slash studio coverage for both teams, and greatly reduce spring training broadcasts.

6) Boston Red Sox gave P Garrett Richards $10M for one year; in 2014-15, he went 28-16 as one of the Angels? best pitchers, but has had a lot of physical problems since then, going 8-12 the last five years combined.

Bronx acquired P Jameson Taillon from Pittsburgh, for four prospects; Taillon has had two Tommy John surgeries, hasn?t pitched since July, 2019.

Reliever Brad Hand agreed to 1-yr, $10.5M contract with Washington.

5) CNN has a weekend anchor named Pamela Brown; her mom is Phyllis George, who was on the NFL Today for three years in the Brent Musburger days, in the mid-70?s. Phyllis George was Miss America in 1971.

Pamela Brown?s father is John Y Brown, who built KFC into a multimillion-dollar restaurant chain; he was also governor of Kentucky from 1979-83. When the Browns got married, the ceremony was performed by Norman Vincent Peale, a minister/author who was best known for writing The Power of Positive Thinking.

4) John Y Brown owned the Kentucky Colonels of the ABA, who were really good- Hubie Brown was their coach, but John Brown took $3M to fold the Colonels when the NBA absorbed four ABA teams in 1976. Brown later became owner of the Buffalo Braves, then traded the Braves for the Celtics (this is just before Larry Bird got to Boston), so the Braves? new owner could move the team to San Diego, where they became the Clippers.

3) Tampa Bay 31, Green Bay 26:
? Buccaneers advance to Super Bowl for first time since 2002.
? Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays.
? Brady will be starting his 10th Super Bowl
? Tampa Bay will be first team to play a Super Bowl on its home field.

2) 1979 Rams played the Super Bowl in Pasadena, which is basically LA but it wasn?t the Rams? home field. 1984 49ers played the Super Bowl at Stanford Stadium, again right in their home area, but not their home field- that was the year they beat Dan Marino?s Dolphins.

1) Chiefs 38, Bills 24:
? Buffalo led this game 9-0 early on.
? Chiefs? first drive: 3 plays, 6 yards, punt.
? Chiefs? next 6 drives: 53 plays, 420 yards, 5 TDs, one FG

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Championship

************************


101KANSAS CITY -102 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the current season.

101KANSAS CITY -102 TAMPA BAY
KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

101KANSAS CITY -102 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the current season.




NFL
Long Sheet

Championship

Sunday, February 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (16 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (14 - 5) - 2/7/2021, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Championship

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, February 7

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City


-------------------------------------------------------------


NFL Super Bowl LV: Bet Now, Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 7?a default home game for the Bucs, who opened as Big Game underdogs.

But no matter the matchup, from preseason to regular season to Super Bowl, the sharpest NFL betting strategy is always to get the best of the number. We look at the opening spread and total and early line movements, giving you our best betting tips of the wagers to make now and the ones to make later.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs: Bet Later

Never has a team played a Super Bowl on their own turf and despite that fact, the Buccaneers are giving a field goal to the ?visiting? Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

Offshore operators posted odds on the potential Super Bowl matchup at halftime of the AFC Championship Game, actually dealing K.C. as low as -2.5 before a quick move to Kansas City -3. The vig shifted dramatically over the final two quarters of the Chiefs? beatdown of the Buffalo Bills and the recency bias (people are going to react to what they saw last) pushed it even further, with some shops dealing Kansas City -3.5 (-105)/Tampa Bay +3.5 (-115) and others maxing the vig on Chiefs -3 (-125) to cling to the key number.

If you're on the home underdog Bucs, don?t buy it at a field goal: wait it out and get that half-point hook. In discussions with oddsmakers following Tampa Bay?s win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship, Covers? writer Patrick Everson was told home field in the Super Bowl could be worth between 0.5 and 1.5 points to the spread. The Bucs could do for some home cooking, after winning three straight playoff road games to get Tom Brady back to the Big Game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs (Over 57.5): Bet Now

The current Super Bowl LV total is sitting at 57.5 points?tied with Super Bowl LI for the highest Over/Under in Big Game history. That infamous game (which also featured Brady) needed overtime to get Over the number. This one probably won?t need any help and could sniff 60 points by the time Super Sunday rolls around.

Given that Tampa Bay has posted scores of 31, 30, and 31 points in those road postseason stops, bettors should feel pretty good about the Bucs sharing the scoring load in Super Bowl LV, especially since Kansas City looks like the weakest defense Tampa has faced so far in the tournament.

The Chiefs finally snapped out of their offensive slumber versus Buffalo, dropping 38 points on the Bills with a relentless big-play attack. Kansas City had been scuffing its feet on offense for more than a month but put up its second-highest point total of the season in the AFC title game?and looked just as dangerous as it did at its 2020 peak.

These teams clashed in Week 12, with Kansas City winning 27-24 (as 3.5-point road chalk) and playing Under the 56-point total. However, Brady and Bucs were mired in an offensive slump at the time and neither team was great in the red zone. There are plenty more points to be squeezed from the Chiefs and Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. If you?re leaning Over, bet that bad boy now before it breaks the all-time Over/Under record.


----------------------------------


Super Bowl 55 Opening Odds - Chiefs favored over Buccaneers
Micah Roberts

Vegas ready for Super Bowl 55

It?s a dreamy Super Bowl 55 matchup featuring Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, a matchup that offers a little bit of intrigue for everyone to share opinions which makes for a tremendous betting event.

Moms, Grandma?s, the Priest, and the mailman will all have thoughts on who will win.

We have two weeks to wait for the game, but the talking of who will win began Sunday immediately after Brady beat the Packers at Lambeau Field to make his 10th Super Bowl.

The Buccaneers were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and they?ll be +3.5 against the defending champion Chiefs as well.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 57.5 with 45 minutes left in the Chiefs eventual 38-24 win over the Bills.

Circa Sports opened the Chiefs -3 -120 as did William Hill books and both were quickly moved to -3.5. The South Point and MGM both opened -3.5.

?Mahomes against Brady is going to be huge,? Nevada BetMGM?s sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said.

?Handle has been up all season despite less occupancy so I don?t see why the trend wouldn?t continue for the biggest game of the season. It?s been weird because six-figure wagers are a common thing now. I used to remember them all because that size of a bet was unique, but now that it?s a regular thing, I lose count of how many we took some weeks.?

Mobile wagering with lots of automated options has helped most books achieve bigger numbers this NFL season.

It?s easier than ever for people to bet and bet again in 2021 staying home during a pandemic, so why not set a record to commemorate it.

The Nevada record for Super Bowl sportsbook handle was $158 million in 2018 when the Eagles beat the Patriots and the highest win was $19.67 million in 2014 when the Seahawks thrashed the Broncos, 43-8.

I can tell you this, the soft spot for your Grandma will be 43-year-old Tom Brady, who just played in his 14th conference championship game.

He comes off seven straight wins while scoring 30-points or more in their last six.

He won all three playoff games on the road. They?ve got some serious momentum heading into Tampa.

Yes, the game is on their home field, the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on their home field.

Chiefs get early action

Early money showed up on the Chiefs at -3 -120, but that was more about the number. Or was it?

BetMGM?s Jason Scott said they took $50K on the Chiefs -3.5 and $150K on the Chiefs money-line at -180 shortly after the line was posted.

Or maybe it?s just the ?what we saw last? type of betting.

The Chiefs are back covering after going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games, one of which was a Week 12 game at Tampa Bay they won 27-24 but didn?t cover -3.5. The Bucs have not lost since that meeting.

Super Bowl 55 Adjustments Coming?

Where will the line go, up or down?

William Hill?s Nick Bogdanovich, who is booking his 27th or 29th Super Bowl, says it will stay 3 or 3.5 the entire next two weeks.

Station Casinos sportsbook director is hoping for something different.

?I was praying for two-way action at 3.5 but I expect to see Bucs money take it down,? Jason McCormick said.

And then how long do you stay at 3, the most key number in the NFL, before jumping down to 2.5? The books don?t want to push on 3, but they also don?t want to get middle by going to 2.5.

A Black Sunday happened after the 1978 season with the Steelers and Cowboys in Super Bowl 13. Only a handful of books around in Nevada back then with low limits compared to now. A Black Sunday in 2021 would be devastating.

We?ll see how it all unfolds the next two weeks and I?ll report what I see and thoughts on where the number may be going.

My advice shortly after the number was posted Sunday is to take the Bucs +3.5 and money-line sooner than later if you like them and if you like the Chiefs wait for -2.5.

One thing I?ve noticed in recent Super Bowls is that public opinion completely flips sides from what was bet the first two or three days.

Sharp money doesn?t matter as much as the regular season and gets lost in all the public money piling up.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Super Bowl 55 Angles
Matt Blunt

Super Bowl Betting Angles

I couldn't even follow my own advice from last week's piece in waiting for the NFC Championship game to conclude before taking a piece of the Buffalo Bills last week.

Couldn't have felt worse holding a Bills ticket after Green Bay lost, knowing that last week's piece outlined how at least one #1 seed makes the Super Bowl when both make the Conference Finals.

That trend continued to 25 of 26 seasons now that it's happened, although it was one of just a thing or two mentioned last week that held true to form.

Tampa Bay got to the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-1 ? only the 9th team to do so since realignment and quarterback Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were just the 2nd team in the past 10 years (2011 NYG) to make the Super Bowl after having 5+ losses after Thanksgiving, and for the 3rd time in 19 years we get a Super Bowl matchup that's a rematch from a regular season game that same season.

That's not even mentioning the big ?first time? that happened with the Bucs being the first NFL team to play a Super Bowl in their own stadium. Leave it to Brady to continue being responsible for firsts though.

The Bucs still have to try and dodge the fact that 23 of the past 30 Super Bowl winners since 1990 have made the playoffs the year prior, and the fact that Super Bowl QB's who threw for more TD's than their counterpart during the regular season are 6-14 SU since 2000 and 0-5 SU the past five years.

But Tampa's here, and that's all you can ask for as a player, hoping a few breaks and bounces go your way to become a Super Bowl champion.

Brady is going to historic 10th Super Bowl this week and with a 6-3 straight up record in those previous nine Super Bowls, Brady's got to be happy he's in the NFC now, as all three of those Super Bowl losses came to NFC East teams - New York Giants (2) and Philadelphia.

That being said, there are more historical perspectives to bring up for the big game to help with the handicap, as it's hard for anyone to get where they want to be without at least a little bit of help along the way.

Even the great ?Tom Brady? and his six Super Bowl rings can attest to that.

Who's Hot

Super Bowl point-spreads that have closed at -3 or -3.5 have gone 7-4-1 O/U overall and is 4-1 O/U since 2000

1974 - Steelers (-3) 16 vs. Vikings 6, Favorite-Under (33)
1978 - Steelers (-3.5) 35 vs. Cowboys 31, Favorite-Over(37)
1980 - Raiders (+3) 27 vs. Eagles 10, Underdog-Under (37.5)
1982 - Redskins (+3) 27 vs. Dolphins 17, Underdog-Over (36.5)
1983 - Raiders (+3) 38 vs. Redskins 9, Underdog-Under (48)
1984 - 49ers (-3) 38 vs. Dolphins 16, Favorite-Push (54)
1987 - Redskins (+3.5) 42 vs. Broncos 10, Underdog-Over (47)
2000 - Ravens (-3) 34 vs. Giants 7, Favorite-Over (34)
2002 - Buccaneers (+3.5) 48 vs. Raiders 23, Underdog-Over (44)
2010 - Packers (-3) 31 vs. Steelers 25, Favorite-Over (45)
2011 - Giants (+3) 21 vs. Patriots 17, Underdog-Under (53)
2016 - Patriots (-3) 34 vs. Falcons 28 (OT), Favorite-Over (57)

The point-spread result is split evenly at 6-6 ATS for favorites/underdogs in those 12 previous Super Bowls, with favorites alternating wins and losses the last eight tries dating back all the way to the Raiders beating Washington 38-9 as underdogs in 1983.

Tom Brady was involved in each of the two most recent occurrences, beating the Falcons and covering as a favorite in that wild Super Bowl a few years ago thanks to a walk-off TD in OT, but prior to that was their loss to the Giants in 2012 as a -3 point favorite.

Should that eight-game pattern of favorites and underdogs flipping each opportunity continue, the pattern for this year calls for Brady and the Bucs to hoist that Lombardi Trophy as the underdog, but that remains to be seen because in the history of the Super Bowl, SB participants that are attempting to repeat like Kansas City is have been successful in eight of 12 tries

SBLII (52) Philadelphia Eagles 41 New England Patriots 33 (Loss)
SBLI (51) New England Patriots 34 Atlanta Falcons 28

SBXLIX (49) New England Patriots 28 Seattle Seahawks 24 (Loss)
SBXLVIII (48) Seattle Seahawks 43 Denver Broncos 8

SBXXXIX (39) New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Repeat)
SBXXXVIII (38) New England Patriots 32 Carolina Panthers 29

SBXXXIII (33) Denver Broncos 34 Atlanta Falcons 19 (Repeat)
SBXXXII (32) Denver Broncos 31 Green Bay Packers 24 (Loss)
SBXXXI (31) Green Bay Packers 35 New England Patriots 21

SBXXVIII (28) Dallas Cowboys 30 Buffalo Bills 13 (Repeat)
SBXXVII (27) Dallas Cowboys 52 Buffalo Bills 17

SBXXIV (24) San Francisco 49ers 55 Denver Broncos 10 (Repeat)
SBXXIII (23) San Francisco 49ers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 16

SBXVIII (18) Los Angeles Raiders 38 Washington Redskins 9 (Loss)
SBXVII (17) Washington Redskins 27 Miami Dolphins 17

SBXIV (14) Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Los Angeles Rams 19 (Repeat)
SBXIII (13) Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31 (Loss) SBXII (12) Dallas Cowboys 27 Denver Broncos 10

SBX (10) Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Dallas Cowboys 17 (Repeat)
SBIX (9) Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Minnesota Vikings 6

SBVIII (8) Miami Dolphins 24 Minnesota Vikings 7 (Repeat)
SBVII (7) Miami Dolphins 14 Washington Redskins 7

SBII (2) Green Bay Packers 33 Oakland Raiders 14 (Repeat)
SBI (1) Green Bay Packers 35 Kansas City Chiefs 1

Also interesting to note that in terms of SB Most Valuable Player award, three of the seven times a running back has won came in these games that were lined at -3 or -3.5, one of which came in Tampa when Marcus Allen won it in the early 1980's.
Super Bowl MVPs in Games with Spread of -3, -3.5

1974 RB Franco Harris
1978 QB Terry Bradshaw
1980 QB Jim Plunkett
1982 RB John Riggins
1983 RB Marcus Allen
1984 QB Joe Montana
1987 QB Doug Williams
2000 LB Ray Lewis
2002 CB Dexter Jackson
2010 QB Aaron Rodgers
2011 QB Eli Manning
2016 QB Tom Brady

Both KC and Tampa Bay tend to prefer the running back by committee approach this year and it will be hard for any of those names to even get enough plays called for them to have a big enough impact in the SB MVP race.

But there are some juicy MVP odds out there on some of those guys, and if there ever was a time to go a little off the beaten path of ?Superbowl MVP is always a QB?, a 25% connection rate (RB's have won 3 times in 12 SB games lined -3/-3.5) on a RB winning the award in this specific point-spread situation may not be a horrible idea.

Getting back to the strong run of 'overs' in these Super Bowls though, these title games with spreads of a FG have seen an average of 49 points per game scored throughout its entire history, but in four occasions since realignment, that number bumps up to 56.25 points per game (4 games), with only Brady's second loss to the New York Giants coming in below 56 total points in those four games.

Even counting the Super Bowls in the 70's and early 80's when lined NFL totals never got out of the 30's, of the 12 Super Bowls in this spread range, half of them (6) have finished with 50+ points in them, with three of those hitting in the 60's.

Given that the total for this Buccaneers/Chiefs game has spent most of the early time this week floating around at 56 or 56.5, the number is basically right on the average for these -3 lined Super Bowls.

What that does to this O/U run remains to be seen, but if you needed another reason to expect to see plenty of points in Super Bowl 55, the historical angle with this point-spread is there for more support.

Who's Not

?Under? bettors in 2020 NFL games that closed with a -3/-3.5 point spread went 23-35-3 against the number

2020-21 NFL Results (Odds of -3, -3.5)

There have been seven games this season where a team was favored by -3 or -3.5 and they won straight up but failed to cover the spread or it ended as a push (tie), which translates into a win-cover percentage for favorites (-3,-3.5) at 81.8% this season.

Just something to thinking about if you're waiting for a so-called "better number" for Super Bowl 55.

Favorites-Underdogs (SU): 34-27
Favorites-Underdogs (ATS): 27-33-1
Over-Under: 35-23-3

Obviously another way to say that there is even more recent support for 'over' action in this Super Bowl than just the past Super Bowls with spreads of a FG, as 61 different NFL games this year closed in that range, and the 'over' cashed at a 57.3% clip. ?Insert chart with 2020 games -3/-3.5 (Sheet 1 on spreadsheet with all 3/3.5 games)?

Interestingly enough, the O/U record for Kansas City in those games this year was 2-1-1 O/U after last week's 'over' against Buffalo cashed.

There was a push on 54 in a 34-20 win over Baltimore, an 'over' 54 connecting on the Chiefs 32-29 win over the Saints, and most importantly the 27-24 win over this same Tampa Bay team accounting for the lone 'under' for Kansas City in that regard.

Hard also not to make note of the fact that Kansas City went 4-0 SU in all those games as well.

On the Tampa Bay side of things, they went 1-3 O/U in games that closed with them as a favorite or underdog of 3/3.5, with last week's win over Green Bay being the lone 'over' of the season.

The 'under' vs KC was already mentioned, but a 20-19 loss to Chicago when Brady forgot how many downs were left was another one of those games for Tampa this year, while that 38-3 SNF beatdown the Saints gave them in easily cashing an 'under' ticket.

Hard not to put together the fact that Tampa Bay was 1-3 SU in those games either, and had Green Bay executed better and made some better decisions throughout that game, we could be looking at an 0-4 SU record for Tampa Bay in this point-spread range this year.

One more note on this total for the Super Bowl.

As you can see in the earlier chart here, all the 2020 games that closed with a line in the -3/3.5 range and had a total of 50 or more points, went 25-12-3 O/U this year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack
? Friday, someone bet $2.3M on Tampa Bay (+3.5) in Super Bowl. Seriously.
? Apparently Nolan Arenado is getting traded from Colorado to St Louis.
? Green Bay Packers fired defensive coordinator Mike Pettine.
? Illinois 80, Iowa 75? Illini outscored Iowa 14-3 on foul line.
? Daniel Murphy retired Friday, after a 12-year career; he was a .296 career hitter.
? RIP to former Temple coach John Chaney (741-312); he was at Temple for 24 years, after he had won a D-II national title at Cheyney State. Coach Chaney was 89; RIP, sir.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 433,195
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?Organizationally, just want to reiterate our commitment to Deshaun Watson. He?s had a great impact on this organization, a great impact on a lot of people, great impact on this team. We look forward to the opportunity to spend more time with him here this spring once we get started. We have zero interest in trading the player.?
Texans? GM Nick Caserio

Saturday?s quiz
When the Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 draft, what other QB did they take in the first round that year?

Friday?s quiz
Craig Morton (Dallas/Denver) was the first quarterback to start a Super Bowl for two different teams.

Thursday?s quiz
Long time ago, the Los Angeles Clippers were the Buffalo Braves.

*********************

Saturday?s List of 13: NFL teams with big QB questions for next season

13) Dallas? Dak Prescott and the Cowboys couldn?t come to an agreement on a deal last year, and had to resort to a franchise tag for 2020; if Prescott plays in 2021 under a franchise tag, he is likely to play somewhere else in 2022- would they trade him now, to avoid that scenario? If he leaves as a free agent, Dallas gets nothing in return.

In five years, Prescott is 42-27 in regular season games, 1-2 in playoff games.

? Jerry Jones is 78; he probably doesn?t want a rookie QB playing, who will take years to develop.
? Matthew Stafford went to Highland Park HS in Dallas

12) Miami? Dolphins have two QBs now; will either one be their QB in 2021?
? Player A was 4-3 as a starter LY, threw for 2,091 yards, with 13 TD?s, 8 INTs
? Player B was 6-3 as a skater LY, threw for 1,814 yards, with 11 TD?s, 5 TD?s.

Player A is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 38, the only player EVER to throw a pass for eight different NFL teams. Player B is Tua Tagovailoa, who was a rookie last year, but has shown an inability to stay healthy, in both college and the NFL.

Will either guy be the starter for Miami next fall?

11) Carolina? Panthers have the wealthiest owner in the NFL; he is worth $13B, that?s billion, with a B. Really rich people aren?t patient; Carolina is 17-31 the last three years; their QB right now is Teddy Bridgewater, who at age 28 has already started for three NFL teams (26-24).

As far as the really rich owner being impatient, Carolina is rumored to be aggressively trying to trade for Deshaun Watson, who played college ball in the ACC, at Clemson.

10) New Orleans? Saints go into the offseason expecting to be $100M over the salary cap, so they ain?t trading for any of the big name QB?s. Will they go into 2021 with Taysom Hill/Jameis Winston as their QB?s? Will they draft a QB and depend on Sean Payton to develop his skills?

Would New Orleans trade for Sam Darnold, if the Jets trade for Watson?

9) New England? Patriots went 7-9 this season, their first losing season in 20 years, and with Tom Brady playing in the Super Bowl, you figure New England will be aggressive in trying to move back up the standings in an improving AFC East.

Cam Newton ain?t the answer; he looked look his arm was shot this past season, and if he was playing ahead of Jarrett Stidham, what does that say about Stidham? Brian Hoyer figures to hang around as a backup, but who will he be backing up?

There are rumors about a trade for Marcus Mariota, who is 30-33 as an NFL starter.

8) San Francisco? Last four years, 49ers are 24-9 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, 7-27 with anyone else. As a wise man once said, the greatest ability is ?avail-ability?; if you don?t play, what good are you? Will the 49ers move on from Garoppolo?

7) Philadelphia? With the hiring of QB guru Nick Sirianni as head coach, it appears that Carson Wentz will be staying in Philly; Wentz signed a 4-year, $128M contract, which would be really cumbersome to unload. Cumbersome, but not impossible.

Problem is, they drafted Jaylen Hurts in the 2nd round last year; Hurts threw for 1,061 yards in losing three of four starts as a rookie. Coach Sirianni has his work cut out for him.

6) NJ Jets? When a team goes 2-14, there are a lot of problems, not just the QB; Sam Darnold had mono at the start of last season, and things got worse from there. Darnold is 13-25 as an NFL starter, but was 7-6 in 2019. If the Jets want to add draft picks and draft a rookie QB, trading Darnold would net them several draft picks.

Or they could keep Darnold, use the #2 pick on other positions, and keep building. Their new coach is a defensive guru; the owner is back from his stint as ambassador to Ireland, so 2021 figures to be an interesting year for the Jets.

5) Washington? They went 5-1 with Alex Smith at QB this past year, but Smith?s leg is held together with nuts/bolts, and he will be 37 in May. Highly unlikely he is ever playing 16 games in a season again, and remember, the regular season will likely increase to 17 games sometime soon. Washington needs to develop a young quarterback.

Where does Washington look for a QB? Deshaun Watson is the first domino in all of this. If Carolina gets Watson, Teddy Bridgewater could wind up playing for Washington.

Taylor Heinicke/Kyle Allen will battle for the backup job, but who will they be backing up?

4) Jacksonville? Jaguars hired Urban Meyer as their new coach, which will be interesting, seeing how he has zero NFL experience. How will he deal with losing? If the Jaguars go 9-7 next year, fans will want to throw Meyer a parade, but Meyer might have a nervous breakdown if he loses seven games in a season? he went 187-32 as a college coach.

Jaguars will likely draft Trevor Lawrence in April, then the question becomes how long before he becomes the starting QB? Teams aren?t as patient with QB?s as they used to be.

3) Indianapolis? Philip Rivers has retired to become a high school coach, where he will coach his two sons eventually (he also has 7 daughters!!!). Jacoby Brissett is the Colts? QB right now, but Jim Irsay spoke out this week about the Colts needing a veteran presence at QB.

Speculation has centered on Matthew Stafford or Carson Wentz. Brissett is 12-20 as a starter in the NFL, for Patriots/Colts. Doesn?t sound like he?ll be starting in Indianapolis next season.

2) Detroit? Matthew Stafford will turn 33 on Super Bowl Sunday; he is 74-90-1 as a starter, has played 16 games in nine of last ten seasons. Problem is, Stafford has played 12 years in the NFL, but is 0-3 in playoff games. Detroit?s last playoff win was in 1991.

Stafford has thrown for 45,109 yards and 282 TDs, with 144 INTs; he and the Lions mutually agreed to a separation last week.

1) Houston? Wonder what it is like to turn on the TV every day and hear all the sports channels speculating about where you?ll be living next year?

If Deshaun Watson really wants to be traded, he needs to lay low for a while, so the Texans will have a little more leverage in making a deal- they?re not just going to give him away. Watson is the first domino in whaat could be a wild winter of quarterback movement in the NFL.

Watson is 28-25 in 3+ years as a starter; his job in Houston would?ve bit a lot easier last year if they hadn?t traded their best receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. He has a 4-year, $140M contract that he signed last September.