CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Thursday, September 17


Sunday, September 20

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Game 279-280
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
127.428
Tennessee
140.474
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 13
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 8 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-8 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 275-276
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
124.472
Green Bay
135.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 11 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 6
49
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-6); Under

LA Rams @ Philadelphia

Game 261-262
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
129.099
Philadelphia
131.974
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+1 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 263-264
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
117.969
Tampa Bay
132.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 14 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 9
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-9); Over

NY Giants @ Chicago

Game 277-278
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.935
Chicago
125.243
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 2 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+5 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Indianapolis

Game 273-274
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.236
Indianapolis
124.957
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+3); Over

Atlanta @ Dallas

Game 267-268
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
127.155
Dallas
138.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-4 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ NY Jets

Game 269-270
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
137.701
NY Jets
128.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 9
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-6); Under

Washington @ Arizona

Game 281-282
September 20, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
128.947
Arizona
130.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Over

Baltimore @ Houston

Game 283-284
September 20, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
139.888
Houston
136.032
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+7 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ LA Chargers

Game 285-286
September 20, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
147.055
LA Chargers
126.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 20 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 8 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-8 1/2); Under

New England @ Seattle

Game 287-288
September 20, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
135.503
Seattle
136.575
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(+4); Under


Monday, September 21

New Orleans @ Las Vegas

Game 289-290
September 21, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
133.470
Las Vegas
130.218
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(+6 1/2); Over

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Thursday, September 17

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 101-102
September 17, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
124.894
Cleveland
123.058
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 6
43
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+6); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

2020 NFL

Week 2 NFL

Bengals (0-1) @ Cleveland (0-1)
? Last three years, Cincy is 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
? Bengals averaged only 4.4 yards/pass LW; they were outgunned by 67 yards.
? Cincy?s only TD drive LW was 44 yards; they?ve got a new kicker this week, a guy who got cut by the Browns Monday.
? Bengals covered five of last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last 12.

? Browns were -3 in turnovers LW, had a 21-yard deficit in average field position in their 38-6 loss in Baltimore.
? Last four years, Cleveland is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Browns are 4-2 ATS in last six home series openers- they?re 3-18-1 SU in home series openers.

? Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing previous seven.
? Bengals lost last two visits here, 26-18/27-19.

Rams (1-0) @ Philadelphia (0-1)
? LA averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt LW, converted 9-17 on 3rd down.
? Last three years, Rams are 15-9 ATS on the road.
? Under McVay, LA is 3-0 in road openers, scoring 34.7 ppg.

? Eagles blew a 17-0 lead in LW?s loss at Washington; Redskins started 6 of their 14 drives in Eagle territory.
? Last two years, Philly is 5-11 ATS at home.
? Eagles won last four home openers, but are 3-8 ATS in last 11.

? Philly won last six series games, with average total in last three, 64.3
? Rams lost last three visits here; their last win in Philly was in 2001.

Panthers (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (0-1)
? Carolina scored 30 points LW, despite having only one play of 20+ yards.
? Last two years, Panthers are 5-7 ATS as a road underdog.
? Carolina won/covered four of last six road openers; three of last four went over.

? Bucs were -3 in turnovers LW; Saints had a 24-yard edge in field positions nd that doesn?t count the pick-6 they got.
? Since 2014, Tampa Bay is 4-15-2 ATS as a home favorite.
? Buccaneers lost five of their last seven home openers.

? Carolina is 10-4 in last 14 series games, winning five of last seven visits here.

Broncos (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
? Long trip east on short week for Denver, after last-second home loss Monday.
? Broncos converted only 3-12 third down plays; Titans were 7-16 on 3rd down.
? Last four years, Denver is 8-11 ATS as a road underdog.
? Broncos lost their last three road openers, by 10-13-8 points (0-3 ATS).

? Short week for Steelers, who held Giants to 29 yards rushing Monday.
? Last three years, Pittsburgh is 9-11 ATS as a home favorite.
? Steelers lost last two home openers, 42-37/28-26.

? Home side won last five series games; Broncos split their last four visits here.

Falcons (0-1) @ Dallas (0-1)
? Atlanta gained 506 yards LW, threw for 434, but were -2 in turnovers.
? Last three years, Atlanta is 5-9 ATS as a road underdog.
? Falcons are 3-10 ATS in last thirteen road openers.

? Dallas was 3-12 on 3rd down LW; they scored 17 points in 4 trips to red zone.
? Last four years, Dallas is 13-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Cowboys won seven of last nine home openers (3-0-1 ATS last four)

? Falcons won three of last four series games, winning two of last three visits here.

49ers (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
? 49ers scored only 10 points in four trips to red zone LW; they were 2-11 on 3rd down.
? SF has injury issues at WR, DB.
? Last five years, 49ers are 3-4 ATS as a road favorite.
? 49ers lost five of last seven road openers; they?re 9-5 ATS in last 14.

? Jets were outgained 404-254 LW; Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position.
? Last three years, Jets are 10-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Five of their last seven home openers stayed under.

? Teams split last four meetings; overall, 49ers lead series 10-3, winning last visit here 34-8 in 2016.

Bills (1-0) @ Miami (0-1)
? Buffalo converted 7-14 on 3rd down, had 31 first downs in LW?s win.
? Under McDermott, Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? Buffalo lost 10 of last 15 road openers (4-2 ATS in last six).

? Miami allowed 217 rushing yards LW; they threw 3 INT?s (-2 TO?s)
? Last four years, Miami is 11-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Dolphins won seven of their last ten home openers.
? Over is 14-3 in their last 17 home openers.

? Bills won five of last six series games; they split last four visits to Miami.

Vikings (0-1) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
? In their history, Vikings are 0-11 in road games against the Colts.
? Colts won last five series games, three of them by 3 points.

? Minnesota gave up 522 yards LW, allowing five TD?s on nine drives.
? Vikings are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
? Minnesota is 4-11-1 SU in last 16 road openers (5-9-2 ATS).

? Colts outgained Jax 445-241 but scored only 17 points in five trips to red zone.
? Last three years, Indy is 9-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Colts lost five of their last six home openers (1-5 ATS as a favorite)

NJ Giants (0-1) @ Chicago (1-0)
? Short week for Giants, who ran ball 20 times for 29 yards Monday.
? Big Blue covered 14 of its last 20 games as a road underdog.
? Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in last ten road openers.

? Bears won LW after trailing 23-6; all three of their TD drives were less than 60 yards.
? Last two years, Chicago is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite.
? Bears lost five of last six home openers (under 4-1-1).

? Bears (-6) beat Giants 19-14 LY, just their 2nd win in last six series games.
? Giants lost last two visits to Chicago; their last win here was in ?07.

Lions (0-1) @ Green Bay (1-0)
? Detroit had seven plays of 20+ yards LW. 2nd-most in league.
? Lions lost though, blowing a 23-6 lead at home.
? Lions are 16-22 ATS in last 38 games as a road underdog.
? Detroit covered three of its last four road openers.

? Packers gained 522 yards, scored five TD?s on nine drives LW.
? Green Bay is 25-15-2 ATS in last 42 games as a home favorite.
? Packers won seven in row, 12 of last 13 home openers (10-3 ATS).

? Packers beat Detroit twice LY, by total of four points, after Lions had won previous four meetings.
? Lions won three of last five visits to Lambeau Field.

Jaguars (1-0) @ Tennessee (1-0)
? J?ville completed 19-20 passes, converted 5-10 on 3rd down in LW?s win.
? Last two years, Jaguars are 4-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? J?ville won two of last three road openers (3-0 ATS) , after losing previous nine.

? Titans survived their kicking woes in Monday?s last-second win in Denver.
? Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 3-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Titans lost five of their last six home openers.

? Titans won seven of last nine series games.
? Jaguars lost their last six visits to Nashville, with three of last four losses here by 19+ points.

Washington (1-0) @ Arizona (1-0)
? Redskins gained only 239 yards, but were +3 in turnovers in LW?s upset win.
? Last four years, Washington is 15-10 ATS as a road underdog.
? Washington covered its last four road openers.

? Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on 3rd down in LW?s win.
? Last five years, Cardinals are 7-14 ATS as a home favorite.
? Arizona is 0-3-1 SU in last four home openers (1-3 ATS).

? Washington won 10 of last 12 series games.
? Washington split its last six visits to the desert.

Chiefs (1-0) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
? Reid?s SU record after a bye or Thursday game: 17-2.
? Chiefs ran for 166 yards, scored 4 TD?s on 9 drives in LW?s win.
? Last four years, KC is 15-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? Kansas City covered six of its last seven road openers.

? Chargers? first-ever home game in SoFi Stadium.
? LA was +2 in turnovers LW, survived when Bengals missed 31-yard FG at end of their 16-13 win.
? Last six years, Chargers are 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
? Bolts are 0-3 ATS in last three home openers.

? Chiefs won 11 of last 12 series games.
? KC won its last six series road games, with four of last five wins here by 10+.

Ravens (1-0) @ Texans (0-1)
? Baltimore had 23-yard edge in field position LW; they led 24-6 at half.
? Ravens had 3 takeaways, scored 5 TD?s on 10 drives vs Cleveland.
? LY, Ravens were 5-0-1 ATS as a road favorite, after going 6-11-1 from ?13-?18.
? Baltimore is 8-4 ATS in last dozen road openers.

? Texans started 7 of 8 drives at their 25 or worse field position LW.
? How does passing game stack up after trading star WR Hopkins?
? Since 2013, Houston is 5-10 ATS as a home underdog.
? Houston covered twice in its last seven home openers.

? Ravens won nine of 11 series games; they beat Houston 41-7 at home LY, but they did lose their last two visits here.
? Baltimore ran ball for 256 yards in LY?s game.

Patriots (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)
? Rematch of Super Bowl when Seattle had ball on 1-yard line at the end, but had a pass picked off in end zone.
? Patriots fired Pete Carroll as coach (27-21 in three years), so they could hire Belichick.

? NE ran ball for 217 yards LW; Newton adds a run threat.
? Last ten years, Patriots are 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
? New England won seven of its last nine road openers.

? Seahawks won their last 11 home openers (8-3 ATS).
? Seattle completed 31-35 passes, scored 5 TD?s on 10 drives in Atlanta.
? Last three years, Seahawks are 6-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Under is 16-2-1 in Seattle?s last 19 home openers.

Saints (1-0) @ Las Vegas (1-0)
? New Orleans was +3 in turnovers, scored a defensive TD in LW?s win.
? Last four years, Saints are 12-3 ATS as a road favorite.
? New Orleans lost seven of last nine road openers.

? First-ever home game in Las Vegas for the Raiders.
? Raiders converted 6-11 on 3rd down, scored 34 points in LW?s win at Carolina.
? Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Raiders are 5-13 ATS in last 18 home openers.

? New Orleans won three of last four series games; they won their last three trips to Oakland.

 

[Udog]

Bengals vs. Browns Week 2 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 2 of the NFL season gets going with a divisional battle in the AFC North between the Bengals and Browns. Both teams are looking for substantial improvements this year after going through tough 2019 campaigns, and both sides can't feel too good about how they opened up the 2020 season.

In Cleveland's case, the Browns continue to be the way better in their own minds then they are on the football field, as they got blasted by Baltimore 38-6. The Browns didn't score a single point in the final three quarters of that football game, as Cleveland did what Cleveland always does; continues to shoot themselves in the foot.

Fumbles lost, thrown picks, and a missed field goal all made an appearance in the calamity of errors the Browns dealt with on Sunday, and if this team ever wants the world to see just how good they believe they are in their own heads, crap like that has to get cleaned up in a hurry.

Cincinnati wasn't without their own miscues in their 16-13 loss to the Chargers, a game in all likelihood they should have won. Kicker Randy Bullock missed a chip shot FG to tie at the end of the game as he blew out something in his leg on the approach, and that was after the Bengals thought they had a game-winning TD already.

But wide receiver AJ Green's catch in the front corner of the end zone was called back for being a push-off, as #1 overall pick quarterback Joe Burrow got his first, first-hand experience as to why this team is un-affectionately known as the Bungals.

Betting Resources

Week 2 Matchup: Divisional - AFC North
Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Location: Cleveland, OH
Date: Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Burrow did have plenty of good moments in that first career start though, and at least after one week it does look like his future should be bright in this league.

But it's still only one week though, and now Burrow is in that dreaded spot all rookie QB's must endure ? their first road start in the NFL.

There will be some fans in the ?Dog Pound? for this Cleveland home game, but I would also venture a guess that the usual notion of basically auto-fading rookie QB's in their first road start probably isn't nearly as strong this season with empty stadiums.

Line Movements

Spread: Cleveland -6
Money-Line: Cleveland -260, Cincinnati +220
Total: 43.5

Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow will get his first taste of AFC North action when the Bengals meet the Browns. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Cincinnati

Overall: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Cleveland

Overall: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Handicapping the Total

Thursday Night Football games off a short week are always going to get plenty of noise about backing 'unders' with the idea behind it being the quality of play will be suspect with such little prep and recovery time. For the most part in recent years, looking low on totals for Thursday games tends to be a good place to start, and after these two teams combined to score just 19 total points in their respective Week 1 contests, we've already seen plenty of 'under' support for this game.

The total opened up as high as 46 in some spots, before instantly getting bet low and reaching it's current price of 43.5 basically by Monday afternoon. That's definitely a drop to be aware of.

But in this particular case, I'm not sure I fully agree with it. Yes, going against the majority consensus for this game specifically and TNF in general on the 'under' can be troubling, but when I envision these two teams squaring off, I see a game with two young QB's not being gun shy in the slightest, probably with a costly turnover or two thrown in for both sides. Both offenses understand that they've got to be much better in executing on offense, and neither the Bengals nor Browns defenses are likely to provide a tremendous amount of resistance.

Cleveland may have gotten smoked in Baltimore last week, but they did finish the game with 20 made 1st downs (to Baltimore's 23), and had 31 more rushing yards than Baltimore. You know that Ravens team that's got a spectacular rusher under center and had a game script to where running the ball late to drain the clock was readily available to them.

Moving the ball wasn't the issue for Cleveland there, it was protecting the football, penalty issues and making the most of their opportunities that ultimately made that box score look much worse than it probably should have. The Chargers rushed for 155 yards on 39 attempts against the Bengals last week, so there is plenty of yardage to be gained on the ground for Cleveland. If Baker Mayfield can mix that up with some timely connections in the passing game, moving the ball up and down the field against Cincinnati shouldn't be a huge problem. The Chargers were horrible themselves in converting red zone opportunities into TD's last week vs Cincy, but they did have three chances to do so.

At the same time, Burrow and the Bengals attack showed flashes of brilliance during a few drives only to have them stall in the worst ways. There was a shovel pass INT that Burrow threw in the red zone in the 2nd half of the game, and the ending has already been talked about. Baltimore gashed Cleveland's secondary with a strong passing attack ? Lamar Jackson went 20-for-25 for 275 yards and 3 TD's ? so there should be that blueprint available to the Burrow and the Bengals offense to find success here.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 29, 2019 - Cincinnati 33 vs. Cleveland 23, Bengals +2.5, Over 44
Dec. 8, 2019 - Cleveland 27 vs. Cincinnati 19, Browns -6.5, Over 43.5
Dec. 23, 2018 - Cleveland 26 vs. Cincinnati 18, Browns -10, Push 44
Nov. 25, 2018 - Cleveland 35 at Cincinnati 20, Pick 'em, Over 46

Finally, we can't forget about these two franchises being perpetual basement dwellers in this division the past few years and the fact that when they do meet up to play one another in what both sides have to view as highly ?winnable? games, we've often seen points.

The last five meetings between these two have gone 4-0-1 O/U in recent years, with the last three games all having closing totals in a very similar range (44, 43, 44). There is no doubt in my mind that oddsmakers had this recent run of Bengals/Browns game in mind when they opened the number in the 45.5/46 range, but the knee jerk/hot take reaction on a week-to-week basis that is otherwise known as the NFL betting market each year made sure their voice was heard early in dropping this line to where it currently sits.

Therefore, it's only the high side of this number I can look at now, as both QB's know they've got something to prove right now, and I expect both to embrace a duel if it does indeed turn out that way.

Handicapping the Side

The side is something that is easier to pass on this week, if for nothing else than the notion that it's easy to figure these QB's/teams will make a costly mistake at some point, but pinpointing on who or which team it will be makes it a quite passable option.

If forced to choose a side, I would be grabbing the points with the Bengals, as Burrow doesn't have all the baggage that Bengals teams in the past have had, nor anywhere near the baggage that Baker Mayfield and this current Browns core currently have.

Not to mention that Cincinnati does fit into this scenario I brought up earlier this week where they are catching points against an 0-1 SU favorite. I'm not entirely sure the Browns should be laying nearly a TD against anyone in 2020 ? at least until they prove they can come anywhere close to all that smoke they blew up the world's ass last summer during their hype tour.

However, it's still that dreaded ?rookie QB in first road start? that I can't be thrilled about bucking if I were to have a Bengals ATS ticket in my pocket, so the side is an all-around pass, at least before kick-off. There could easily be in-game betting scenarios that pop up where much better numbers arise on both sides.

Key Injuries

Cincinnati

CB LeShaun Sims: Personal - Questionable
C Billy Price: Ankle - Questionable
DE Sam Hubbard: Knee - Questionable
K Randy Bullock: Calf - Questionable
S Shawn Williams: Calf - Out
G Xavier Su'a-Filo: Ankle - Out
DT Mike Daniels: Groin - Out
DT Geno Atkins: Shoulder - Out

Cleveland

OT Jack Conklin: Ankle/Finger - Questionable
OT Chris Hubbard: Ankle - Questionable
CB Kevin Johnson: Liver - Out
C JC Tretter: Knee - Questionable
LB Jacob Phillips: Knee - Out
DE Olivier Vernon: Abdomen - Questionable
CB Greedy Williams: Shoulder - Out
CB Shoulder - Out
OT Jedrick Wills Jr.: Shin - Questionable
LB Mack Wilson: Knee - Out
WR Jarvis Landry: Hip - Questionable

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PICK:

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CIN at CLE 08:20 PM
CIN +6.0
U 44.5
+500 +500

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Colts are 15-0-1 ATS (12.44 ppg) since Dec 27, 2015 when the total is over 37 and they failed to cover by at least seven points last game.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Dallas (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Falcons are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.45 ppg) since Oct 15, 2017 coming off a home game where they scored more points than expected.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: New England at Seattle (8:20 p.m. ET)

-- The Patriots are 0-12 OU (-12.46 ppg) since Dec 17, 2017 facing a team Julian Edelman had at least 75 receiving yards against last meeting.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
Teams: Indianapolis and San Francisco

-- NFL System: Teams which lost in week one as a -6 or better favorite are 23-11 ATS.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Chicago (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Bears are 13-0 OU (13.27 ppg) since Sep 17, 2006 coming off a road win and facing a team under.400 on the season.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Bills are 0-11 OU (-10.55 ppg) since Dec 07, 2008 off a game as a favorite where they allowed no more than 15 first downs


NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Houston (4:25 p.m. ET)

-- The Texans are 0-8-2 OU (-6.80 ppg) since Dec 25, 2017 coming off a game where they allowed at least 30 points.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Cnotes53]

Injury roundup: Patriots' Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry expected to play

It looks like Cam Newton and the New England Patriots will be at full strength against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night.

Patriots wide receivers Julian Edelman (knee) and N'Keal Harry (shoulder) are both expected to play, a source tells NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

Both Edelman and Harry had five receptions in last Sunday's victory over the Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots (1-0) take on the Seahawks (1-0) in Seattle at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Other injury news we're keeping an eye on ahead of Sunday's Week 2 games:


Atlanta Falcons left tackle Jake Matthews (knee) is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play against the Dallas Cowboys, a source tells Rapoport.
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith (neck), his status is much more up in the air. Dallas will make a determination Sunday, but Smith must improve a great deal to get on the field, per Rapoport.

Baltimore Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley (hip) and cornerback Jimmy Smith (hip) are both listed as questionable, but both should play against the Houston Texans, according to Rapoport.
On the Houston side, running back Duke Johnson (ankle) is not expected to play, while wide receiver Brandin Cooks (quad) should be good to go.

Chicago Bears pass-rusher Robert Quinn, who arrived as a big-time free agent this offseason but missed Week 1, is expected to make his debut today vs. the New York Giants, per Rapoport. He was listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Giants wide receiver Golden Tate, listed as questionable after missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury, is expected to play today. He should be at full strength, according to Rapoport.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton, dealing with an AC joint sprain, has a good chance to play, but the team wants to work him out pregame to make sure his ailment has healed enough, a source tells Rapoport.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay hasn't practiced since injuring his hamstring Sept. 9 and is out again today against the Green Bay Packers, but head coach Matt Patricia said Saturday: "He's really close." They'll see how he progresses, but it sounds like Golladay could be back for Week 3, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

Packers right tackle Billy Turner (knee) practiced all week, but his status for today's game against the Lions is very uncertain, a source tells Pelissero. There could be more shuffling for Aaron Rodgers' line, which lost right guard Lane Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DET at GB 01:00 PM
DET +7.0
O 51.0
+500 +500

JAC at TEN 01:00 PM
JAC +7.0
O 44.5
+500 +500

BUF at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +5.5
O 42.5
+500 +500

NYG at CHI 01:00 PM
NYG +4.5
O 42.5
+500 +500

MIN at IND 01:00 PM
IND -3.5
U 49.0
+500 +500

DEN at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -6.0
U 41.0
+500 +500

SF at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +7.0
O 41.5
+500 +500

CAR at TB 01:00 PM
CAR +7.5
O 47.0
+500 +500

ATL at DAL 01:00 PM
ATL +3.0
O 53.0
+500 +500

LAR at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -2.0
U 46.0
+500 +500

******************************

WAS at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -7.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

KC at LAC 04:25 PM
KC -8.5
U 47.0
+500 +500

BAL at HOU 04:25 PM
HOU +7.5
O 49.5
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........30-27-1.......52.63%.....+2.50

 

[Cnotes53]

You have the need and the right to spend part of your life caring for your soul. It is not easy...To be a soulful person means to go against all the pervasive, prove-yourself values of our culture and instead treasure what is unique and internal and valuable in yourself and your own personal evolution.


Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
401- Kansas City -6.5? L
306- Green Bay -6? W
302- 49ers -6.5? W
293- Giants +5.5? W
290- Eagles 1? L
287- Arizona 6.5? W
Season record: 8-4

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 199,938
Please wear a mask when you go out.

***************************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Dallas 40, Falcons 39
? Atlanta didn?t cover an onside kick with 1:49 left; watch the highlights, someone has to lose their job over this. Inexcusable loss.
? Falcons led 20-0; game was 29-10 at halftime.
? Atlanta ran 72 plays, Dallas 81; lot of plays for an NFL game.
? Very seldom a team is +3 in turnovers, wins field position by 17 yards, and loses.

? Prescott is first player ever with 450+ passing yards, 3 rushing TD?s in same game.
? Dallas turned ball over on three of first five possessions.
? Dallas hung 570 yards on Atlanta?s defense.
? Cowboys won eight of last ten home openers (3-1-1 ATS last five)

Rams 37, Philadelphia 19
? Game swung on great end zone INT by Darious Williams when LA led 21-16.
? Rams? first three drives: 23 plays, 196 yards, 21 points.
? LA converted 16-29 on 3rd down in first two games.
? Last three years, Rams are 16-9 ATS on the road.
? Under McVay, LA is 4-0 in road openers, scoring 35.3 ppg.

? LA outgained Eagles 449-363; Rams ran ball for 191 yards.
? Last two years, Philly is 5-12 ATS at home.
? Eagles are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers.

Tampa Bay 31, Panthers 17
? 1st drive: INT, 2nd: fumble, 4th: lost on downs.
? Bridgewater threw for 365 yards, but they turned ball over four times (-2).
? Carolina gave up 65 points in losing its first two games.
? Last 2+ years, Panthers are 5-8 ATS as a road underdog.

? Bucs started two drives in Carolina territory, scored on first play both times.
? Fournette had 12 carries for 103 yards and two TD?s.
? Since 2014, Tampa Bay is now 5-15-2 ATS as a home favorite.

Pittsburgh 26, Broncos 21
? Denver QB Lock hurt his shoulder in first quarter, didn?t return.
? Former Florida Gator Driskel was 18-34/256 yards, two TD?s.
? Broncos converted only 8-27 third down plays in first two games.
? Broncos lost their last four road openers, by 10-13-5 points (1-3 ATS).

? Roethlisberger threw for 311 yards; Steelers won first home opener in three years.
? Conner ran for 106 yards and a TD.
? Last three years, Pittsburgh is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite.

49ers 31, NJ Jets 13
? First play of game, Mostert ran 80 yards for a TD.
? 49ers had lot of injuries; backup QB Mullens played 2nd half.
? 49ers are 10-5 ATS in last 15 road openers.

? Jets were outgained 763-531 LW in their first two games.
? Two trips to red zone, Jets kicked two FG?s.
? 49ers? first four drives: 31 plays, 221 yards, 21 points.

Bills 31, Miami 28
? Allen was 24-35 for 417 yards, averaged 11.5 yards/attempt. Wow.
? Bills drove 97 yards for a TD on their first drive.
? Under McDermott, Buffalo is 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
? Bills won six of last seven series games.

? Miami allowed 217 rushing yards LW; they threw 3 INT?s (-2 TO?s)
? Last 4+ years, Miami is 12-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Dolphins covered via the back door with 0:49 left.
? Over is 15-3 in their last 18 home openers.

Indianapolis 28, Vikings 11
? On a day where Stefon Diggs caught 8 passes for 153 yards for Buffalo, Vikings gained total of 175 yards on 47 plays here.
? Cousins completed 11-26 passes, with three INT?s. In a dome.
? In their history, Vikings are 0-12 in road games against the Colts.
? Vikings are 3-9-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
? Minnesota is 4-12-1 SU in last 17 road openers (5-10-2 ATS).

? Minnesota gave up 522 yards LW, allowing five TD?s on nine drives.
? Colts outgained first two opponents 799-416.
? Last three years, Indy is 10-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? In nine red zone drives this year, Colts have scored only 34 points.

Chicago 17, Giants 13
? Giants? RB Barkley hurt his knee early; they fear a torn ACL.
? Giants had ball on 10-yard line as game ended, but couldn?t score.
? Giants started one drive on Chicago?s 25, but settled for a FG.
? Big Blue covered 15 of its last 21 games as a road underdog.

? Chicago scored 10 points on its first two drives, led 17-0 at halftime.
? Bears in 2nd half: 28 plays, 97 yards, no points, one huge sigh of relief.
? Under is 5-1-1 in Bears? last seven home openers.

Green Bay 42, Lions 21
? Lions are 9-24-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, and they fired him.
? Detroit?s first two drives: 21 plays, 150 yards- they led 14-3.
? Detroit?s last nine drives: 38 plays, 154 yards, 7 points.
? Lions are 16-23 ATS in last 39 games as a road underdog.

? Packers gained 1,010 yards, scored nine TD?s on 18 drives in two games.
? Green Bay is 26-15-2 ATS in last 43 games as a home favorite.
? Packers won eight in row, 13 of last 14 home openers (11-3 ATS).

Tennessee 33, Jaguars 30
? Jax outgained Titans 480-354, had 30 first downs, converted 10-14 on 3rd down.
? Jaguars completed 49-65 passes, converted 15-24 on 3rd down in splitting their first two games.
? J?ville covered its last four road openers (3-0 ATS).
? Jaguars lost their last seven visits to Nashville.

? Gostkowski kicked a 49-yard FG with 1:36 left after Titans blew a 2-TD lead.
? Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 3-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Titans won eight of last ten series games.
? Tannehill threw for 239 yards, four TD?s.

Arizona 30, Washington 15
? Washington fell behind 17-0 last week, 20-0 in this game.
? Washington had trouble containing mobile QB Murray- he ran for 67 yards.
? Washington was down 27-3, then scored TD?s on TD?s on last two drives.

? Arizona ran ball for 340 yards, converted 14-31 on 3rd down in first two games.
? Cardinals scored two TD?s, kicked two FG?s on first six drives.
? Murray threw for 286 yards, ran for 67 more.

Chiefs 23, LA Chargers 20 OT
? Chiefs? first six drives: 33 plays, 142 yards, 6 points.
? Chiefs? last four drives: 40 plays, 232 yards, 17 points.
? Butker kicked two 58-yard FG?s, including game-winner in OT
? Reid?s SU record after a bye or Thursday game: 18-2.
? Chiefs won 12 of last 13 series games.

? QB Taylor was scratched just before kickoff; rookie Herbert made his NFL debut.
? Herbert was 22-33 for 311 yards, actually looked pretty good, averaging 8.5 yards/pass attempt.
? Chargers led 17-6 midway thru third quarter.

Ravens 33, Texans 16
? Baltimore scored 71 points in winning its first two games.
? Ravens had a pick-6, was +2 in turnovers again.
? Baltimore ran ball for 230 yards.
? Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
? Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in last 13 road openers.

? Texans started 16 of 18 drives at their 25 or worse field position in first two games.
? How does passing game stack up after trading star WR Hopkins?
? Since 2013, Houston is 5-11 ATS as a home underdog.
? Houston covered twice in its last eight home openers.

Seahawks 35, Patriots 30
? NE ran ball for 217 yards LW, but only 67 yards here.
? Newton threw ball for 397 yards, but got stopped on 2-yard line running ball on last play of the game.
? Patriots scored on a pick-6 on first series of the game.
? Five red zone drives, 23 points.

? Seahawks won their last 12 home openers (9-3 ATS).
? Seattle completed 52-63 passes, scored 10 TD?s on 20 drives in first two games.
? Seahawks held Newton to 47 rushing yards; Patriot RB?s combined for 20 YR.
? Seattle had a 13-yard edge in stating field position.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NO at LV 08:15 PM

LV +4.0

U 47.5


ALSO PLAYED AS A 2 TEAM PARLAY FOR 200

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........31-28-1.......52.54%.....+2.00

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 3: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will face a stern Monday night test at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The SuperBook installed Baltimore as a 3-point favorite.

NFL Week 2 is almost in the books, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups is a massive Monday nighter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 3 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 3 odds

These are the current NFL Week 3 odds, as of September 20.

Dolphins at Jaguars odds

Opening line
Jaguars -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville is 1-1 SU, but cashed in in its first two games, losing to Tennessee 33-30 Sunday but covering as a 7-point road underdog. Miami is out of the gate 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, getting a last-minute touchdown Sunday to cover as a 5.5-point home 'dog in a 31-28 loss to the Bills.

So John Murray and his oddsmaking team at The SuperBook made the Jags modest 2-point favorites at home for the Thursday night tilt, and there was apparently a little early Jacksonville interest, as the line went to Jags -2.5.


Raiders at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Patriots -6.5 and didn?t take much action on it before pulling it down when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said Sunday night. It's The SuperBook's standard practice to take a game down when a team is involved in the Sunday night conttest, as the Patriots were against the Seahawks.

"It's a short week for the Raiders and a tough traveling spot, with them going east in Week 1, then back here for the Monday Night Football game, and then back out to the East Coast for an early kickoff."


Rams at Bills odds

Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Bills are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS), but so are the Rams, who cashed in both games, including a 37-19 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. Although the Rams are playing back east two consecutive weeks, the first move at The SuperBook was toward Los Angeles, from +3.5 to +3 Sunday night.


Texans at Steelers odds

Opening line
Steelers -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night, though Murray expressed some sympathy for Houston, with its tough early-season schedule. "I don?t know what the Texans did to deserve an opening three weeks of at Chiefs, home against Ravens and at Steelers."


49ers at Giants odds

Opening line
Giants +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no move in this game Sunday night at The SuperBook, but Murray said setting the opening number was a little challenging, due to key injuries on both sides. There's concern that Giants running back Saquon Barkley may have torn an ACL in Sunday's loss to the Bears, so he could be lost for the season.

Likewise, 49ers star defensive end is also thought to have a torn ACL suffered in Sunday's win over the Jets. And San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a high ankle sprain, so his status for Week 3 is uncertain.

"Those guys (on the 49ers) are worth a couple points, and then Barkley is worth half-a-point to a point," Murray said, noting The SuperBook probably would've opened the Niners at -6 if not for the injury issues.


Titans at Vikings odds

Opening line
Vikings +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The SuperBook gave Tennessee the nod as short road chalk, but the first move was to the home 'dog Minnesota, as this line moved to Titans -2 Sunday night.


Washington at Browns odds

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Bengals at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
With the opener of 5.5 a relatively dead number, it appears The SuperBook just wanted to see which way bettors would take it. And they took it toward the Eagles, as the line ticked up to -6 Sunday night.


Bears at Falcons odds

Opening line
Falcons -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night, but many observers think the Atlanta sideline should see some movement this week ? as in, coach Dan Quinn should be fired. The Falcons blew a 39-24 fourth-quarter lead at Dallas, including allowing an onside kick recovery that led to the Cowboys' game-winning field goal as time expired. That marked the only time Dallas led Sunday.


Jets at Colts odds

Opening line
Colts -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) rolled over visiting Minnesota 28-11 laying 3.5 points Sunday, while New York fell to 0-2 SU and ATS in a 31-13 home loss to San Francisco. It seems like this number is high, but The SuperBook went a little higher still Sunday night, with the first move to Colts -9.5.


Panthers at Chargers odds

Opening line
Chargers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement at The SuperBook on Sunday night, although Los Angeles was certainly impressive as it fell just short to Kansas City in overtime earlier in the day.


Lions at Cardinals odds

Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Another game that opens at 5.5 and quickly moves toward the favorite. Arizona is out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start, and early bettors were impressed enough to help move the line to -6.5 Sunday night.


Buccaneers at Broncos odds

Opening line
Broncos +5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Broncos could very well be without QB Drew Lock, who suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh. So another game that opens 5.5 moved toward the favorite, in this case the visiting Buccaneers, who went to -6 Sunday night.


Cowboys at Seahawks odds

Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Seahawks -4.5 and took some money on Dallas right away," Murray said, noting the game came off the board shortly thereafter, since the Seahawks were playing the Sunday nighter against the Patriots. "There should be good two-way action here. Gotta keep a close eye on the injury report for Dallas."


Packers at Saints odds

Opening line
Saints -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -3.5 and took some money both ways," Murray said of action on Sunday night. "The Packers look like they?re a lot better than we realized coming into the season, but we don?t want to overreact too much to their wins over the Vikings and Lions."


Chiefs at Ravens odds

Opening line
Ravens -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"These are pretty clearly the two best teams in the NFL, and this looks to be the game of the year, at least as far as the regular season is concerned," Murray said. "We have the Ravens as a slightly better team than the Chiefs and the home-field advantage bumps it to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite to open. There was no discussion on this line. Everyone in the room made it Baltimore -3. It looks like all the other books agreed."

And as of late Sunday night, there was no line movement, either.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 3 Betting Angles

Two weeks of the season has already come and gone, and before you know it we will be at Halloween, eight weeks will have gone by and you'll still be doing preseason prep for the Pac-12.

Week 3 is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season though because the first impressions and subsequent follow ups have already been seen, and perspectives on teams are starting to take some sort of shape. Two games worth of box scores begin to form more data, and yet every season the same things seem to hold true in Week 3 every year.

So it's into the archives for an updated version of a popular piece last year as there is no reason to change. It performed well once again. It's all about the spread record for Week 3 road teams and if they've got a goose egg in one column, you'll want to take it to crack.

Who's Hot

Week 3 road teams that are 0-2 ATS to start the year are 15-4 ATS in Week 3 the past four seasons, including 6-1 ATS a year ago

Brought this one up at the right time a season ago with a nice 6-1 ATS mark this week, and the 2020 season brings us another strong list of candidates. Some of these teams are even up against some perfect 2-0 ATS teams as well.

Who do you Follow?

Cowboys
Jets
Texans
Titans
Panthers
Lions

This means that plays on Dallas (+4.5) at Seattle, the NY Jets (+10.5) at Indianapolis, Houston (+4) at Pittsburgh, Tennessee (-2.5) at Minnesota, Carolina (+7.5) at LA Chargers, and Detroit (+5.5) at Arizona all should be considered for the card.

A couple of those lines still can have the look of ones that are a little too steeped in a two-week snap judgement and different weighing injuries can be. Carolina's going to be missing McCaffrey which is behind that number getting over a TD as part of the latter, and the Jets may not be as bad as they seem if you believe Buffalo's a contender this year and the catching an angry 49ers team who just happened to be 0-1 SU after losing the Super Bowl.

At the same time, as someone who has the Vikings to make the Super Bowl an 0-2 SU start in the fashion it's gone down for the Vikings has not gone over well, and I'm not quite ready to write them off yet either. Tennessee's managed to let two teams hang around when they probably shouldn't have too, and laying points on the road with a team you know has kicking issues never feels comfortable.

The cases for taking the points in five of those six games where it applies is something that won't take much work to have me on board, but there probably isn't much of a hurry to rush to grab these ugly dogs either. Carolina and the Jets are likely to get very little support overall, and I don't know how much market sentiment is left to make many want to back the Lions and Texans led by Matt Patricia and Bill O'Brien respectively.

Dallas is always going to be a public darling regardless, but up against Russell Wilson and his MVP chatter already making the rounds, that overwhelming Dallas money is probably going to be more balanced. That spread isn't likely to be moving too far either way.

But after seven games fit this role a season ago and it produced at that 85% clip, it was time to go right back to it and see how the six games that qualify this year end up treating the bankrolls.

Who's Not

Week 3 road teams that are 2-0 ATS are 4-9 ATS the past four years; 1-0 ATS in 2019

This is not going to have the large volume of plays that the other run does, as of the nine teams that are 2-0 ATS, the majority of them are at home in Week 3.

Who do you Fade?

Packers
Rams
Raiders

But this would imply that fading the Packers (+4.5) vs New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams (+2.5/3) at Buffalo should be other options to be considered, as should looking to go against the Raiders (+6) at New England after they defeated the Saints on Monday Night Football.

Monday's impressive win by the Raiders over the Saints in their Las Vegas home opener could open up the flood gates for plenty of generic Green Bay love as a downgrade on the Saints more then anything, but I'm sure the Raiders may come off that +6 number as well.

The loss for the Saints likely still brings plenty of Packers love, but Patriots backers are probably going to want to look to get that play down sooner rather then later with New England looking just fine through two games of the Cam Newton era.

Finally, playing against the Rams means you are playing on a strong Bills team that's remained undefeated and kept the backdoor open too long for the Dolphins to get the late ATS cover on Sunday. There are worse options every week then having a ticket that's got the Bills at home on it though.

However, it would only be backing the two AFC East teams of these three games that I think I'd end up putting on the card, as even with Packers love expected, I'm still not sure the Saints aren't being valued much higher than they should be.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 24

MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After spread cover vs. Bills, Dolphins 10-4 vs. line last 14 since early 2019.
Jags now ?over? 4 of last 5 as host after Indy opener and 2-0 ?over? this season.

Tech edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.


Sunday, Sept. 27

L.A. RAMS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rams now 10-2 vs. spread their last 12 as visitor since late in 2018 campaign, and they have won and covered seven straight in early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone (or London).
Bills 4-6 last ten as Orchard Park chalk.

Tech edge: Rams, based on team trends.


LAS VEGAS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Raiders have now covered last 3 and 6 of last 9 as visitor after opening win at Carolina.
Raiders had closed 2019 ?under? 6 of last 7 before ?overs? vs. Panthers and Saints.
Into last Sunday night at Seattle, Belichick ?under? 21-12 last 33 reg.-season games, also 21-10 as Gillette Stadium reg.-season chalk since 2016.

Tech edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.


HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Texans now no covers last 4 as dog after covering 8 of previous 11 in role.
Steel now on 14-5 and 16-6 ?under? runs after opener vs. G-Men, and 9-6 vs. spread last 15 at Heinz Field (much of that minus Big Ben LY).

Tech edge: Steelers and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

G-Men now no covers last 7 as MetLife dog after opener vs. Steel.
Niners 7-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.

Tech edge: Niners, based on team trends.


TENNESSEE at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Titans entered 2020 on 9-4 spread uptick but have failed to cover first two in 2020.
Vikes ?over? 9-4 last 13 reg.-season games.

Tech edge: ?Over? and Titans, based on ?totals? and team trends.


WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Browns 0-2 vs. line for Stefanski after non-cover vs. Cincy, and Cleveland now 5-12-1 vs. line since 2019.

Tech edge: Football Team, based on Browns negatives.


CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Cincy now 5-3 as visiting dog since LY (not counting Rams in London) for Taylor and also on 5-1 ?over? run.
Birds 5-14 vs. line last 18 at Linc, 4-10 last 13 as home chalk.
Philly was ?under? last 7 at home in 2019 before ?over? vs. Rams.

Tech edge: Bengals, based on team trends.


CHICAGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears rallied for win in opener but no cover vs. G-Men last week and now 5-14 last 19 on board.
Chicago 1-4 as dog in 2019 but got the W in role in opener vs. Lions.
Falcs closed 2019 on 6-2 SU and spread rush.
Falcs dropped first two SU in 2020 (though did cover at Dallas).

Tech edge: slight to Falcons, based on recent trends.


N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Jets only 3-7 vs. line last ten away (3-6 for Gase) after loss at Buffalo in opener.
NY did cover 5 of last 6 as dog in 2019 before loss vs. Bills, and also no cover as dog last week vs. Niners.
Philip Rivers 5-14 vs. line with Chargers and Colts since late 2018.

Tech edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.


CAROLINA at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Bolts now in new stadium but were 1-8 vs. line their last nine at Carson from late 2018 thru 2019, all prior to cover vs. KC last week.
Bolts also ?under? 6-1 last 7 as host since 2019, and were 2-8 LY as chalk, though did squeeze narrowest of covers in Cincy opener.
Panthers on 1-8-1 spread skid after opening losses vs. Raiders and Bucs, though also ?over? 14-5 after first two in 2020.

Tech edge: ?Over? and slight to Panthers, based on ?totals? trends and extended Chargers home negatives.


DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Kingsbury now 12-5-1 vs. line with Cards after 2-0 start in 2020.
Note Cards only 0-1 as chalk in 2019, but handled role vs. Football team last week.
Lions on 6-12 spread skid since LY, and ?over? 12-6 since 2019 after extended ?under? run prior.

Tech edge: Cards and ?Over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


TAMPA BAY at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Broncos 10-4 last 14 vs. points since early 2019 (covered first two in 2020 even though 0-2 SU), and now ?under? 19-8 since mid-2018 (Fangio 10-8 ?under? since LY).
If Denver a dog here note Fangio 7-2 last 9 in role. Bruce Arians only 6-11-1 vs. line with Bucs, and his teams ?over? 29-12 last 41 with Cards & Bucs.

Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends.


DALLAS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Dallas only 8-10 vs. line its last 18 as visitor, though Cowboys 6-1 last 7 as reg.-season dog.
Hawks entered 2020 just 2-7 vs. line last 9 as Seattle chalk.

Tech edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.


GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Saints got money vs. Bucs in opener, though they were only 3-9 previous 12 as Superdome chalk.
Pack 3-0 as dog vs. teams other than 49ers last year.

Tech edge: Packers, based on team trends.


Monday, Sept. 28

KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Chiefs stretched win and cover streak to 10 in opener vs. Texans, though failed to get money vs. Bolts last week.
Andy Reid also 9-2 as dog since 2017, and won close games at Arrowhead (but covered neither) the past two years vs. Baltimore.
Ravens however have won 14 straight reg.-season games SU, covering 11 of last 12.
Last three meetings ?over? including LY.

Tech edge: ?Over? and slight to Ravens, based on ?totals? and team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

301MIAMI -302 JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

461LAS VEGAS -462 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 46-23 ATS (20.7 Units) after allowing >=30 pts. since 1992.

463LA RAMS -464 BUFFALO
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

465HOUSTON -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 27-10 ATS (16 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

467SAN FRANCISCO -468 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.

469TENNESSEE -470 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (16.2 Units) at home when the total is 45.5-49 since 1992.

471WASHINGTON -472 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

473CINCINNATI -474 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

475CHICAGO -476 ATLANTA
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

477NY JETS -478 INDIANAPOLIS
NY JETS are 15-30 ATS (-18 Units) in road games after allowing >=30 pts. since 1992.

479CAROLINA -480 LA CHARGERS
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight overs in the last 3 seasons.

481DETROIT -482 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) at home when the total >=49.5 since 1992.

483TAMPA BAY -484 DENVER
TAMPA BAY is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

485DALLAS -486 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 3 seasons.

487GREEN BAY -488 NEW ORLEANS
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (10.2 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

489KANSAS CITY -490 BALTIMORE
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (7.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 208-153 ATS (+39.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-154 ATS (+29.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-91 ATS (+30.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (0 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-31 ATS (+20.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (2 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (0 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (0 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (0 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 148-187 ATS (-57.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 9/28/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


Sunday, September 27

Tennessee @ Minnesota
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee

Las Vegas @ New England
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home

Chicago @ Atlanta
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Chicago

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

San Francisco @ NY Giants
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

Houston @ Pittsburgh
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

Washington @ Cleveland
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

LA Rams @ Buffalo
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
LA Rams is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Carolina @ LA Chargers
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Carolina

NY Jets @ Indianapolis
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing NY Jets

Detroit @ Arizona
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Arizona is 8-1-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit

Dallas @ Seattle
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Tampa Bay @ Denver
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games
Denver
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Green Bay @ New Orleans
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL betting tips for Week 3: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Buffalo Bills' invigorated passing game is currently the top-ranked aerial attack in the NFL. Their Week 3 total against the Rams is at 46.5 ? but it could keep climbing as the week goes on.

Week 3 is a dangerous week for NFL betting. You have just enough information to lure you into a false sense of security.

This year, the NFL Week 3 odds are even slipperier to wrangle thanks to no preseason to measure against as well as league-wide injuries befalling many teams and their key contributors this past Sunday. But in the face of all this, the ultimate NFL betting strategy remains: get the best number for your NFL picks.

We give the top NFL betting tips with our Week 3 lines to bet now and bet later.

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): Bet now

The Chargers opened -6 against the Panthers, coming off a tough overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 2. The Bolts played extremely well, considering rookie quarterback Justin Herbert was thrust into action due to Tyrod Taylor suffering pregame chest pains.

Los Angeles? defense was excellent, holding the Chiefs to 23 points and forcing three long field goals from an offense that usually has zero trouble finding the end zone. Offensively, the Chargers had a great balance between run and pass and now take on a poor Panthers defense.

Carolina is crossing the country after allowing 31 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, on the heels of 34 points from the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. And while the Panthers? defense ? or lack thereof ? is enough to like L.A., the fact Carolina star RB Christian McCaffrey will miss time with an ankle injury is a cherry on top of the sundae for Chargers fans. Get the Bolts below the touchdown now.


Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs Baltimore Ravens: Bet Later

Oh my gawd, this is going to awesome. The Chiefs and Ravens GET IT ON this coming Monday night and the early odds have the defending Super Bowl champs as field goal pups on the road in Week 3. While this spread hasn?t come off the key number, books are adjusting their juice on the Ravens -3 to -115 while discounting K.C. in an attempt to stir up some Chiefs action.

Kansas City barely escaped Week 2 with a win, needing some long-range field goal kicking to edge the Chargers in overtime. Now, Patrick Mahomes & Co. hit the road for a second straight game, this time taking on a Baltimore squad that looks scary good through two weeks.

If you?re not sold on the Chiefs here, I don?t blame you. The Ravens crushed Cleveland in Week 1 and broke Houston on its home turf, covering both spreads at -7 and -7.5 respectively. However, if you do like Kansas City, wait it out and see if the half-point hooks show its face. And when it does, get ready to pounce because it won?t be there long.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos (Under 43.5): Bet Now

As much as the media wants to pile the praise on Tom Brady for the Buccaneers? Week 2 win over Carolina, it was the Tampa Bay running backs that did the damage. The Bucs blasted the Panthers defense for 122 yards and three scores on the ground.

Tampa Bay takes to the road in Week 3, traveling up the mountain to play the Denver Broncos. Denver will be without starting QB Drew Lock for the next few games, but it did see some life from backup Jeff Driskel against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don?t buy into that continuing.

The Broncos are pretty beaten up on offense, with RB Phillip Lindsay out and WR Courtland Sutton ruled out for the season on Monday. Denver?s defense is a bit of a mess too, but it always seems to put up a fight at home, going 4-12 Over/Under in the team?s last 16 home games.

I expect another run-focused playbook from the Bucs, which should kill clock and keep scoring low. Tampa Bay?s dangerous defense will also feast on the broken Broncos. If you like the Under, you?ll want to move on this now before it starts dropping.


Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills (Under 46.5): Bet Later

This total is on the rise, opening as low as 45 points and jumping to 46.5 as of Monday morning. And why not? The top-ranked passing game in the NFL is on the field.

That?s right. The Bills? offseason addition of WR Stefon Diggs has been just what Josh Allen needed to flex his cannon arm, with Buffalo averaging 29 points through the opening two games of 2020 ? fueled by the throw.

The Rams dragged their feet on offense in the Week 1 opener versus Dallas but found their footing in a 37-19 win at Philadelphia on Sunday. But let?s not discount the defenses on either side of this matchup ? or the circumstances facing L.A.

Buffalo and Los Angeles have a surplus of playmakers on defense as well as potent pass rushes that can disrupt even the most high-powered attack. On top of that, the Rams are racking up the frequent-flyer miles, having to fly to Philly for Week 2, then fly back to L.A., and then fly to Buffalo on Saturday, due to COVID restrictions. If you?re eyeing the Under, wait it out and see if this total keeps climbing.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 3 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

The 49ers are more of an orthopedics clinic than a football team this week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, among many others, is out, moving San Fran's spread from -6 to -4, and back to -4.5 Monday.

NFL Week 2 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes a flood of key injuries that will impact spreads and totals, particularly in the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants clash.

This week?s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 2 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Star defensive end Nick Bosa tore an ACL and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday?s road win against the Jets. Bosa is done for the year, while Garoppolo might be able to play in Week 3 at the New York Giants. ?Those guys are worth a couple of points,? said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate.

Murray said The SuperBook had the Niners -6 against the Giants before those two injuries, among others. Running back Raheem Mostert (knee) was already ruled out for Week 3, and wideout Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain. Oh, and defensive end Solomon Thomas also has a season-ending ACL tear.

?They?re very banged up,? Murray said, noting The SuperBook opened the 49ers -4 and moved to -4.5 Monday.

New York Giants: Saquon Barkley also suffered a torn ACL Sunday in a road loss to the Bears, so he?s done for the year. ?Barkley is worth a half-point to a point,? Murray said. The Giants are 4.5-point underdogs to the visiting 49ers. It?s also worth noting the 49ers-Giants total opened at just 41.5, quickly dropped to 40.5, then went to 41 Monday afternoon.

Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock separated his right (throwing) shoulder in a loss at Pittsburgh, and he?ll miss two to six weeks, while star wideout Courtland Sutton is done for the year with a torn ACL. On the look-ahead line last week, The SuperBook had the Broncos 3.5-point Week 3 home ?dogs to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The line opened Sunday night with Denver as 5.5-point pups and stretched to +6.5, then went to +6.

Carolina Panthers: Stud running back Christian McCaffrey was another Week 2 victim of a high ankle sprain and could miss several weeks. So he?s certainly not playing Sunday as the Panthers make the cross-country trip to face a Los Angeles Chargers team that just took the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime. Carolina is a 7-point underdog at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers: QB Tyrod Taylor was a late scratch Sunday against the Chiefs with complications from a rib injury. Coach Anthony Lynn said Monday that Taylor would start this week if he?s 100 percent, but complicating matters a bit is that rookie Justin Herbert played reasonably well in a 23-20 overtime loss to Super Bowl champion Kansas City. But with the Panthers minus McCaffrey, the Chargers are still 7-point favorites this week.


Week 2 Weather

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns: As of Monday, there?s a 50 percent chance of rain Sunday in Cleveland, with south/southwest winds of 10-20 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 44.5 and ticked down to 44 Monday.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is looking at a 50 percent chance of rain, as well. The total opened at 45 early Monday morning and over the next couple of hours went to 44.5, then back to 45.

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: The early forecast calls for morning rain in Philly, with intermittent showers in the afternoon Sunday. The total hasn?t moved off 46.5.

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills: As of Monday, there?s a 60 percent chance of afternoon thundershowers, with south/southwest winds at 15-25 mph. But the total in this game is already up to 48, after opening 46.5 at The SuperBook.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: The early forecast calls for occasional showers Sunday, with a 50 percent chance of rain. The total went from 41.5 to 40.5, then 41, but that likely has much more to do with both teams? injuries, as noted above.