NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 6
Saturday’s top 13 games
LSU @
Missouri
LSU (3-2)
— LSU gave up 45-55 points in its losses (Florida St/Ole Miss)
— Tigers scored 41-34-49 points in last three games.
— Tigers gave up 494-201-426-706 yards in its I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 43 starts, 29 of them at Arizona State.
— under Kelly, LSU is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 30-29-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2017, LSU is 33-21-1 ATS in SEC games.
— LSU is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
Missouri (5-0)
— Mizzou is 4-0 vs I-A teams, despite giving up 23.5 ppg.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three weeks, Tigers gained 430-542-532 TY.
— Last three weeks, Tigers threw ball for 394 yards/game.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— In his career, Drinkwitz is 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 6-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Home team won last two meetings.
— SEC home underdogs are 3-5 ATS.
Texas vs
Oklahoma (
@Dallas)
Texas (5-0)
— Texas won its first five games, scoring 37-34-31-38-40 points.
— Longhorns threw ball for 325+ yards in three of last four games.
— Texas is 18-12 SU last 2+ years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 11-9 ATS at home, 4-3 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 34-25 ATS as a favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 12-9 ATS as a favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 10-10 ATS in Big X games.
— Four of their five games stayed under total.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
Oklahoma (5-0)
— Oklahoma scored 47.4 ppg in its first five games.
— Last three weeks, Sooners threw ball for 476-322-366 yards.
— Since 2018, Sooners are 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Oklahoma is +8 in turnovers this season.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— junior QB Gabriel started 12 games LY, also started at UCF
— Oklahoma won first two Big X games, 20-6/50-20.
— Sooners are 15-11 ATS in last 26 conference games.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)
— Oklahoma won six of last eight series games.
— Favorite won/covered last three meetings.
— Texas is 3-0-1 ATS last four times they were favored in this series.
— Over is 8-6 in last 14 series games.
— Favorites are 9-3 ATS in Big X games.
Washington State @
UCLA
Washington State (4-0)
— Wazzu won first three I-A games, scoring 39.7 ppg.
— They threw ball for 379.7 yards/game in those games.
— Coogs won only road game, 50-24 (-9.5) @ Colorado State.
— Wazzu is 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as a road dog.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY; he’s thrown 13 TD’s, no INTs TY.
— Wazzu is 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 conference games.
— Coogs are 18-12 SU in last 30 games, +15 in turnovers.
— Wazzu went bowling five of last six years (1-4 SU/0-5 ATS)
UCLA (3-1)
— UCLA is 2-1 vs I-A teams, giving up 13-10-14 points.
— Bruins had bye LW, lost last game 14-7 (+3.5) @ Utah
— All three of their I-A games stayed under the total.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— frosh QB Moore is 47-86/849 passing, with 8 TD’s, 2 INT’s.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 6-13 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2019, UCLA is 20-15 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Under Kelly, UCLA is 13-12 ATS coming off a loss.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.
— Teams haven’t met since 2019, a 67-63 UCLA win.
— Bruins won six of last eight meetings (4-4 ATS)
— Over is 7-5 in last 12 series games.
— Pac-12 home favorites are 5-1 ATS.
Syracuse @
North Carolina
Syracuse (4-1)
— Syracuse scored 37 ppg in its I-A wins; they lost 31-14 to Clemson LW.
— Syracuse won only road game, 35-20 (-1) @ Purdue.
— under Babers, Syracuse is 16-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— Syracuse is 14-13 ATS in its last 27 ACC games.
— under Babers, Syracuse is 20-24 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Under is 4-0 in Syracuse’s I-A games.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).
North Carolina (4-0)
— Carolina won its first four games, scoring 35.8 ppg.
— Tar Heels covered three of four games TY.
— in those games, UNC gained 437-527-519-373 total yards.
— in 4+ years under Brown, UNC is 34-22 SU/27-28-1 ATS.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 14 starts; he threw 38 TD’s last year.
— Tar Heels are 12-9 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
— last 2+ years, UNC is 8-10 ATS in the ACC.
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
— These teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Teams split last four series games.
— ACC home favorites are 2-5 ATS.
Purdue @
Iowa
Purdue (2-3)
— Purdue won its only road game, 24-17 (even) at Va Tech.
— Purdue allowed 39-35-38 points in its three losses.
— Boilers gave up 487-455-388 total yards in the losses.
— Purdue is 23-8 ATS in last 31 games as a road underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started five games at Texas.
— Purdue is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 road games.
— Boilers are 11-16 ATS in last 27 conference games.
— Purdue is -4 in turnovers; they haven’t finished with +TO ratio since 2017.
Iowa (4-1)
— Iowa QB McNamara tore his ACL, is out for year.
— soph backup QB is 15-35/164 passing this year.
— Iowa beat Michigan State 26-16 LW, after losing 31-0 at Penn State.
— Hawkeyes gained 284 or less yards in four of five games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— Iowa is 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Hawkeyes are 26-15-1 ATS in last 42 games coming off a win.
— Iowa is 16-12-1 ATS in last 29 conference games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
— Purdue won four of last six series games.
— Boilers covered their last six visits to Iowa.
— Five of last six meetings stayed under the total.
Alabama @
Texas A&M
Alabama (4-1)
— Alabama allowed 7-3-10-17 points in its four wins.
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama is +4 in turnovers their last three games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— Alabama is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite
— Bama won road tilts 17-3 (-34) @ USF, 40-17 (-17) @ Miss State.
— Crimson Tide is +4 in turnovers since start of LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Alabama is 9-10-1 ATS in its last 20 SEC games.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
Texas A&M (4-1)
— Aggies scored 33+ points in its four wins.
— Aggies won first two SEC games, 27-10/34-22.
— A&M lost 48-33 at Miami, giving up 374 PY
— A&M allowed total of 45 points in its wins.
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— QB Weigman is hurt, out for year.
— soph backup QB Johnson has 4 career starts- his dad won a Super Bowl.
— under Fisher, Aggies are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— in his career, Fisher is 22-20 ATS as an underdog.
— last 2+ years, A&M is 9-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
— Alabama won nine of last ten meetings, but lost 41-38 in last visit here.
— Crimson Tide is 2-3 ATS in last five visits to College Station
— This is first single digit spread in this series since 2015.
— Four of last five series games went over the total.
— SEC home underdogs are 3-5 ATS this year.
Central Florida @
Kansas
UCF (3-2)
— UCF lost first two Big X games, 44-31/36-35.
— Knights blew 35-7 lead in last week’s 36-35 loss to Baylor.
— UCF allowed 6-16 points in I-A wins, 44-36 in losses.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line- good depth
— senior QB Plumlee has 22 starts between UCF/Ole Miss.
— last 10 years, Knights are 12-24 ATS coming off a loss.
— in his career, Malzahn is 9-15 ATS as a road underdog.
— Three of UCF’s four I-A games went over the total.
— Central Florida is 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.
Kansas (4-1)
— Kansas beat BYU 38-27, lost 40-14 at Texas in first two Big X games.
— Kansas gave up 336 YR to Texas, were outgained 661-260.
— Last two weeks, Kansas gave up 357-325 passing yards.
— Jayhawks have three I-A wins: 34-23/31-24/38-27.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— in his career, Leipold is 18-7-1 as a home favorite.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 8-11-1 ATS in Big X games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 5-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— These two teams haven’t met.
— Big X favorites are 9-3 ATS.
Kentucky @
Georgia
Kentucky (5-0)
— Kentucky ran ball for 329 yards, whacked Florida 33-14 LW.
— Wildcats also scored 41.3 ppg in beating three I-A stiffs.
— Wildcats won first two SEC games, scoring 45-33 points.
— Kentucky held its I-A opponents to 71.8 rushing yards/game.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB started 26 games at NC State.
— Last two years, Wildcats are 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Stoops, Kentucky is 19-17-1 ATS as a road dog.
— Kentucky is 12-6 ATS in last 18 SEC games.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).
Georgia (5-0)
— Georgia won first two SEC tilts 24-14 (-27), 27-20 (-15).
— Georgia is 0-3-1 against spread this season.
— Dawgs are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Last two games, Georgia was minus-3 in TO’s, threw for 707 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— Auburn ran for 219 yards against Dawgs LW, threw for only 88.
— New QB for Georgia; he is 116-161/1,497 passing, with 7 TD’s, 2 INTs.
— Last 2+ years, Georgia is 12-8 ATS in SEC games (0-2 TY).
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— Georgia won last 13 series games, are 0-4 ATS in last four.
— Kentucky is 4-6 ATS in last ten visits to Athens.
— Last four series games stayed under the total.
Notre Dame @
Louisville
Notre Dame (5-1)
— Notre Dame won 45-24 (-7.5) at NC State, 21-14 (-5.5) at Duke.
— Irish scored 42.7 ppg in first three I-A games, 14-21 in last two.
— Notre Dame is 11-3-2 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish are 14-7-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a win.
— Notre Dame is +5 in turnovers this year (minus-3 LY)
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— Notre Dame has home game with USC next week.
Louisville (5-0)
— Louisville has three wins by 7 or fewer points.
— Cardinals (-14) beat BC 56-28 in its only home game.
— New coach Brohm is a Louisville alum (71-44 as a HC)
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— Louisville is 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home dog.
— In his career, Brohm is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3).
— These teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Notre Dame won last two meetings, 12-7/35-17.
Arkansas @
Ole Miss
Arkansas (2-2)
— Hogs lost last three games, 38-31/34-31/34-22.
— Arkansas’ only I-A win: 28-6 (-38) over Kent State.
— Hogs were outgained 414-174 in LW’s 34-22 loss to Texas A&M.
— Arkansas gave up 509-414 TY last two games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 78 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 24 starts
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 16-10-2 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 13-7 ATS as an underdog.
— Last three Arkansas games went over the total.
— Razorbacks won three of their last four bowls, scoring 37 ppg.
Ole Miss (4-1)
— Ole Miss scored 37-48-55 points in its I-A wins.
— Rebels were outgained 356-301 in 24-10 loss at Alabama.
— Ole Miss gave up 637 yards LW, beat LSU 55-49.
— Rebels ran ball for 317 yards LW, threw for 389 more.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB started 12 games last year.
— Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 6-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 11-7-2 ATS at coming off a win.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 12-15 ATS in the SEC.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Arkansas covered four of last five visits to Oxford.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
TCU @
Iowa State
TCU (3-2)
— TCU’s losses were both by 3 points, as double digit favorites.
— Frogs (-7.5) won only road game, 36-13 at Houston.
— TCU has gained 433+ TY in all of its games this year.
— TCU’s last three games stayed under the total.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started three games.
— in his career, coach Dykes is 13-16-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Dykes, TCU is 6-4 ATS in conference games.
— TCU went 13-2 LY, but lost national title game 65-7 to Georgia.
— Four years before LY, Horned Frogs were 22-23 SU.
— TCU qualified for a bowl in four of last six seasons.
Iowa State (2-3)
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is 92-152/1,085 passing (9 TD’s/5 INTs).
— Cyclones were held to 13-7-20 points in their losses.
— Iowa State’s only I-A win: 34-27 at home over Oklahoma State.
— Cyclones gave up 278-366 PY in splitting first two Big X games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— under Campbell, ISU is 10-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— last 2 years, Iowa State is 8-12 ATS in conference games.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— under Campbell, ISU is 23-14-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Iowa State won three of last four series games.
— TCU is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Ames.
— Last four meetings went over the total.
Fresno State @
Wyoming
Fresno State (5-0)
— Bulldogs has road wins at Purdue (39-35), ASU (29-0).
— Fresno gave up 66 points in first two games, 19 in last three.
— Bulldogs held last three opponents to 231 or less TY.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at UCF.
— since 2020, Fresno is 8-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— in his career, Tedford is 20-24-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Tedford, Fresno is 20-14-2 ATS in Mountain West.
— last five years, Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in bowl games.
Wyoming (4-1)
— Wyoming has close wins over Texas Tech (35-33), App State (22-19).
— Cowboys’ only loss was 31-10 (+30) at Texas.
— Last two weeks, Wyoming allowed 217-214 rushing yards.
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Under Bohl, Wyoming is 31-22-2 ATS at home.
— Cowboys are 20-16-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Under Bohl, Wyoming is 18-11 ATS as a home underdog.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games.
— Fresno shut Wyoming out last two years, 30-0/17-0
— Bulldogs won last four series games by combined 87-10.
— Fresno covered its last three visits to Laramie.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Texas Tech @
Baylor
Texas Tech (2-3)
— Tech is 1-3 vs I-A teams, with losses by 2-8-7 points.
— Red Raiders lost 35-33 (-14) at Wyoming, 20-13 (-5) at West Va
— Tech’s only I-A win: 49-28 (-8.5) over Houston.
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 16 games
— Tech is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games.
— last 2+ years, Red Raiders are 4-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.
Baylor (2-3)
— Baylor is 1-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 33.8 ppg.
— In the one win, Bears rallied to win from 35-7 deficit.
— Last two games, Baylor allowed 503-469 TY.
— Baylor is 7-3 in last 10 games as home favorites (0-1 TY)
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line; 2 of 3 starters will be transfers.
— junior QB had 15 starts coming into this year.
— Bears are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— under Aranda, Baylor is 16-14 ATS in Big X games.
— Bears are 3-2 SU in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of 5 games.
— Baylor won four of last five meetings.
— Tech covered its last seven visits to Waco.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
