CNOTES 2023- 2024 HNL NEWS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS !

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 16​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DET at CLB07:00 PMCLB +118
O 6.5		+500 +500
FLA at NJ07:00 PMNJ -169
O 6.5		+500 +500
CAL at WAS07:00 PMWAS +113
O 6.5		+500 +500
ARI at NYR07:00 PMARI +205
O 6.5		+500 +500
CHI at TOR07:00 PMCHI +285
O 6.5		+500 +500
 
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OCTOBER NHL BEST BESTS !

10/16/2023...............................3 - 4.....................................42.85%............................+ 3.40
10/15/2023...............................2 - 1 - 1..............................62.50%............................+ 12.40
10/14/2023.............................10 - 6....................................62.50%............................+ 18.10
10/13/2023...............................1 - 2....................................33.33%............................- 11.85
10/12/2023...............................6 - 5....................................54.54%............................+ 3.50
10/11/2023...............................5 - 3...................................62.50%.............................+ 8.00

TOTALS.....................................27 - 21 - 1..........................56.25%.............................+ 33.55
 
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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Six interesting NFL games to watch this weekend:
— Jaguars @ New Orleans (-3)
— Falcons @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
— Raiders (-3) @ Chicago
— Browns (-2) @ Indianapolis
— Lions @ Baltimore (-3)
— Bills (-8.5) @ New England

Tweet of the Day
“There is an epidemic of poor game management and questionable decisions happening among CFB Head Coaches…This leads to a lack of awareness in situational football from the players.”
Joel Klatt, TV analyst/former college QB

Tuesday’s quiz
Which pro football team did Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own?

Monday’s quiz
In the TV show CSI, Jaclyn Smith played Hodges’ mother; she was one of the stars of Charlie’s Angels, a very popular TV show in the late 70’s.

Sunday’s quiz
Rutgers football coach Greg Schiano was once head coach of the Tampa Bay Bucs.

*************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

— Cowboys 20, Chargers 17:
Dallas kicked a 39-yard FG with 2:23 left for the win.
Cowboys’ first seven drives: 39 plays, 220 yards, 10 points.
Cowboys’ last two drives: 22 plays, 129 yards, 10 points.
Dallas is 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Chargers ran ball 23 times for only 53 yards.
Last four games, Chargers converted only 17-53 third down plays.
Chargers’ two TD drives were short: 42 and 20 yards.
Chargers are 1-3 in games decided by 4 or fewer points.
— AFC is now 15-11 against the NFC this season.
— Under was 12-2-1 in NFL games this week.

Rangers 2, Astros 0
— Texas scored 4 runs in first inning, three before they made an out.
— Astros hit three home runs, all with bases empty.
— Texas leads best-of-7 series, 2-0.
— Rangers are 7-0 this postseason.
— Astros are 40-45 at home this season; no team has ever been under .500 at home and made it to a World Series.

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 3
— Phillies hit three solo homers in first two innings.
— Wheeler allowed only three baserunners in six IP.
— Phillies lead best-of-7 series, 1-0.

— Final Four of baseball are those four teams: Rangers, Astros, Arizona, Phillies, In the history of baseball, only one player has played for all four teams.

Matt Kata played in 278 games over five years for five different teams; he was a utility player who hit .239 with 12 home runs in his career. If you’re wondering, Pittsburgh was the fifth team he played for.

— Miami Marlins had a good year this year, going 84-78 and making the playoffs for the first time in a 162-game season since 2003, but Monday, GM Kim Ng surprisingly resigned.
Apparently the Marlins wanted to hire a president of baseball operations who would’ve been ranked above Ng in the team’s hierarchy, so she hit the bricks.

— College football conference trends:
AAC home teams are 6-11 ATS, 4-7 if favored.
ACC home underdogs are 7-3 ATS.
Big X home teams are 14-8 ATS, 8-5 if favored.
Big 14 home underdogs are 2-7 ATS.
Conference USA home teams are 5-9 ATS.
MAC home teams are 7-11 ATS, 2-5 if they’re an underdog.
Mountain West home teams are 7-9 ATS.
Pac-12 home teams are 14-6 ATS
SEC home favorites are 9-6 ATS, home underdogs are 4-7 ATS
Sun Belt home teams are 7-8 ATS.

— NFL divisional trends:
In divisional games, home teams are 11-15-1 ATS.
NFC North teams are 6-9-1 ATS outside the division.
NFC South teams are 4-12 ATS outside the division.
NFC West teams are 4-1 ATS as a non-divisional favorite.
In non-divisional games, home favorites are 18-16 ATS
In non-divisional games, road favorites are 11-10 ATS

Over last few years, NFL teams who turned down a bye the week after playing a game in England have gone 9-4 SU.
AFC East teams are 9-7 ATS outside the division.
AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South teams are 9-6 ATS outside the division.
AFC West teams are 6-11 ATS outside the division.

— Colts’ owner Jim Irsay said Monday that rookie QB Anthony Richardson is probably done for the season with a shoulder injury.

— Wisconsin QB Tanner Mordecai broke his throwing hand against Iowa Saturday, a big blow to the Badgers’ season. Redshirt freshman Braedyn Locke is Wisconsin’s new starting QB; this week will be his first college start.

— NC-Charlotte’s basketball team went 22-14 last year, 9-11 in Conference USA; their KenPom rating jumped from #208 to #106- they had a good year, but now the 49ers have moved to the AAC, and their coach, for whatever reason, quit to become an assistant coach at Virginia.
Somehow, Charlotte kept all their returning players; the new coach has been a head coach in pro leagues overseas, so things should be alright, but it is a red flag when the head coach quits after a good year to become an assistant somewhere else.

— Toronto Maple Leafs’ star Auston Matthews had a hat trick in each of Toronto’s first two games; he is only the second player in the last 100 years to do that (Alex Ovechkin, 2017 is the other).

— Word of the Day: Conundrum— a problem that doesn’t have a clear solution or an obvious correct answer.
Handicapping football games can be a conundrum, especially since coaches have become morons about game management situations.

— College football teams that are 6-0 against the spread:
UNLV, Oklahoma, Penn State. Who would’ve thought that?

— Oregon State is 15-1 ATS in its last sixteen home football games.

— Last three games, New England was outscored 26-6 in the first half.

— Last three games, Ravens outscored opponents 49-9 in the first half.

— Last three games, Giants were outscored 51-15 in the second half.

— Golden State Warriors have four players whose fathers played in the NBA.

— Boston Celtics hired Jeff Van Gundy as a senior consultant, after ESPN stupidly let him go as its lead TV analyst.

— Last week in Los Angeles, a 15-year old kid named Robby Thomas was chosen to shoot during the timeout of a Lakers’ exhibition game; if he made a layup and a 3-pointer within a minute, he won whatever the prize was.
ESPN’s commercial got fouled up, so they were live on air as the kid was finishing up; he has good form for a kid that young, and sure enough, he made his last shot to win the contest. Funny thing, he didn’t seem the least bit excited about winning.
The Lakers’ cheerleaders are surrounding him as photographers take pictures and the kid kind of shrugged it off. Unusual for this day and age.
 
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VANCOUVER is 13-2 Over (10.8 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 39-48 ATS (-13.8 Units) after playing a road game in the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 10-10 ATS (13.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last ...

TAMPA BAY is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored in the last 3 seas...

EDMONTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.

LOS ANGELES are 248-184 Under (45.6 Units) after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game since 1996.

SEATTLE is 22-9 Over (12.1 Units) on Tuesday nights in the last 3 seasons.

SAN JOSE is 14-44 ATS (-34.4 Units) at home when the total is >=6 in the last 3 seasons.

DALLAS are 309-316 ATS (-38.6 Units) off a home win since 1996.
 
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NHL
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Tuesday, October 18

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Tuesday, October 18

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Trend Report
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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 17​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
VAN at PHI06:00 PMVAN -132
O 6.5		+500 +500
MIN at MON07:00 PMMON +126
U 6.5		+500 +500
ARI at NYI07:30 PMARI +165
U 6.0		+500 +500
TB at BUF07:30 PMTB -100
U 7.0		+500 +500
LA at WIN08:00 PMWIN -127
U 6.0		+500 +500
EDM at NAS08:00 PMEDM -151
O 6.5		+500 +500
COL at SEA10:00 PMCOL -149
U 6.0		+500 +500
CAR at SJ10:30 PMSJ +246
U 6.0		+500 +500
DAL at VEG10:30 PMVEG -106
O 5.5		+500 +500
 
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OCTOBER NHL BEST BESTS !

10/17/2023..............................4 - 8.....................................33.33%............................- 23.35
10/16/2023...............................3 - 4.....................................42.85%............................+ 3.40
10/15/2023...............................2 - 1 - 1..............................62.50%............................+ 12.40
10/14/2023.............................10 - 6....................................62.50%............................+ 18.10
10/13/2023...............................1 - 2....................................33.33%............................- 11.85
10/12/2023...............................6 - 5....................................54.54%............................+ 3.50
10/11/2023...............................5 - 3...................................62.50%.............................+ 8.00

TOTALS.....................................31 - 29 - 1..........................51.66%.............................+ 10.20
 
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Most-watched college football games last weekend:
7.04M people— Oregon-Washington
6.43M— USC-Notre Dame
4.38M— Texas A&M-Tennessee
3.55M— Indiana-Michigan
3.43M— Arkansas-Alabama
3.29M— Stanford-Colorado

Tweet of the Day
“It was after the game, and certainly that was a gut-wrenching and emotional loss. I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off……..before anyone starts the narrative like the head football coach is frustrated and lost his poise and all that — no, I care. I care about these kids, and I was really upset on Saturday night because I didn’t do enough to help them get over the hump and win the football game.”
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer

Wednesday’s quiz
Where did 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy play his college football?

Tuesday’s quiz
Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers

Monday’s quiz
In the TV show CSI, Jaclyn Smith played Hodges’ mother; she was one of the stars of Charlie’s Angels, a very popular TV show in the late 70’s.

**************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings………​

— Phillies 10, Diamondbacks 0
Game was 2-0 after five innings; Arizona’s bullpen got hammered.
Kyle Schwarber homered twice for Philadelphia.
Phillies lead best-of-7 series, 2-0

— Fan in the stands in Philadelphia had a #21 Phillies jersey, a Bake McBride jersey; the guy last played for the Phillies in 1981. McBride was a very fast outfielder, a .299 lifetime hitter, but it is time for that fan to buy himself a new jersey.

— NFL Draft is a fascinating process:
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick of the 2017 Draft; he might be wind up being the best quarterback of all time.
QB Josh Rosen was the 10th pick of the 2018 Draft: he is one of the biggest busts in draft history, going 3-13 as a starter for Cardinals/Dolphins. He was out of the NFL at age 24.
NFL teams are worth $5B or so; how do you make a mistake like that?

— Only five of the 30 NFL teams who played last week scored more than 21 points; quality of NFL offenses is way down so far this season. Under was 12-2-1 in Week 6 games.
Young QB’s get rushed into the lineup, coaches are too conservative in close games. Defenses definitely have the upper hand so far this season.

— Texas A&M’s football team is 4-3 this season, after losing close games to Alabama, Tennessee the last two weeks. Last two years, Aggies are 0-6 in true road games; the natives are restless.
There are rumors that Texas A&M may tell Fisher to take a hike, but if they do that this year, they have to pay him $67.5M to go away. Imagine getting paid $67.5M to go away?

— Flag football is going to be a sport at the 2028 Summer Olympics, which will he held in Los Angeles. Curious how many different countries will field team for that event.

— Fairfield basketball coach Jay Young quit three weeks before the Stags are going to open the season at Boston College. Young was 50-73 in four years at Fairfield; assistant coach Chris Casey will serve as interim coach this season.

— Word of the Day: palaver— Empty nonsense or useless talk.

— Field position is important in the NFL; if your defense/special teams are doing really well, they will create opportunities for the offense to work on a short field, so they have to do less to score a touchdown.
So far this season, teams with most TD drives shorter than 60 yards:
8— Bills
7— Commanders
6— Lions, Jaguars, Chargers, Dolphins, 49ers

— So far this season, teams with most TD drives allowed shorter than 60 yards:
8— Panthers
7— Broncos, Raiders
6— Dolphins

— Not only has New England allowed five TD drives shorter than 60 yards, their offense has also given up four TD’s to opposing defenses.

— Offenses with most touchdown plays of 20+ yards:
10— Dolphins
8— Lions
6— Bears, Jaguars

— Defenses with most touchdown plays allowed of 20+ yards:
9— Broncos
7— Commanders
5— Colts, Buccaneers

— Brian Hoyer is a backup QB for the Raiders; he played the second half against New England Sunday, going 6-10/102 yards as Las Vegas held on for a 21-17 win.
Hoyer has been in the NFL for 15 years, starting 40 games (16-24). Last time Hoyer started a game his team won was in 2016, when his Chicago Bears beat Detroit 17-14.

— There are 11 unbeaten teams left in college football.

— Michael Jordan’s teams played 30 games against teams with Sherman Douglas on them; Jordan’s teams went 30-0 in those games. That is the most wins without a loss by one player over another in NBA history.

— Chicago Bears’ QB Justin Fields dislocated his right thumb Sunday; he may be out for year, no one is really saying, but obviously that is a especially bad injury for a quarterback.
Bears’ backup QB is rookie Tyson Bagent, who played college football for Shepherd U in West Virginia, a D-II school. He is going to get a chance to show his stuff the rest of the season.
If the season ended right now, the Bears would have the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft; they have Carolina’s pick next year. Will they move on from Fields?

— Genius of the Day: South Carolina football coach Shane Beamer broke his foot Saturday, when he kicked something in frustration after his Gamecocks lost 41-39 to Florida, blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Not good.
 
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OTTAWA is 11-3 Over (7.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 27-14 Over (11.6 Units) in home games after playing a road game in the last 3 seasons.




NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 19

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NHL

Wednesday, October 19

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Washington @ Ottawa
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Ottawa is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Detroit
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home


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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
WAS at OTT07:00 PMOTT -171
O 6.5		+500 +500
PIT at DET07:30 PMPIT -120
O 6.5		+500 +500
 
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OCTOBER NHL BEST BESTS !

10/18/2023..............................2 - 1............................66.66%......................+ 5.00
10/17/2023..............................4 - 8.............................33.33%.....................- 23.35
10/16/2023...............................3 - 4............................42.85%.....................+ 3.40
10/15/2023...............................2 - 1 - 1........................62.50%.....................+ 12.40
10/14/2023.............................10 - 6.............................62.50%.....................+ 18.10
10/13/2023...............................1 - 2.............................33.33%.....................- 11.85
10/12/2023...............................6 - 5.............................54.54%.....................+ 3.50
10/11/2023...............................5 - 3..............................62.50%....................+ 8.00

TOTALS...................................33 - 30 - 1........................52.38%.....................+ 15.20
 
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Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,876— Tua Tagovailoa, Mia
1,679— Kirk Cousins, Minn
1,677— Matthew Stafford, Rams
1,660— CJ Stroud, Hous
1,618— Jared Goff, Det
1,593— Patrick Mahomes, KC

Tweet of the Day
“We’re all tied together. It’s a journey that we’re experiencing together. Somebody will get the statistics from it, but none of those statistics are worth anything if you don’t have a full support from your players across the board, all 11, and then it goes down to the organization and all those things combined. But I know this, our players run a lot of plays that I have a lot of history with, and it looks different, and that’s because of hard work and unbelievable abilities.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel

Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; what was their name back then?

Wednesday’s quiz
49ers’ QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.

Tuesday’s quiz
Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers

************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……​

— Astros 8, Rangers 5
Jose Altuve homered; Astros led 5-0 in 4th inning.
Cristian Javier got 17 outs, allowed only two runs.
Texas leads series 2-1; road team won all three games.

— New Jersey Jets traded WR Mecole Hardman to Kansas City, for two draft picks, a 6th and 7th round pick. Hardman had previously won two Super Bowl rings playing with the Chiefs, but he signed with the Jets as a free agent last spring.

— 49ers QB Brock Purdy is earning $870,000 this season; there are 20 starting QB’s in the NFL who make more than $870,000 PER GAME!!!!

— According to kenpom.com the top six college hoop teams to start this season:
1- Purdue
2- Kansas
3- Houston
4- UConn
5- Gonzaga
6- Arizona

— Justin Minaya is a 6-7 forward who is trying to make the Portland Trailblazers; his father is Omar Minaya, who used to be general manager of the New York Mets. Justin Minaya played his college ball at both South Carolina and Providence.

— NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder likes to accumulate draft choices; over the next seven drafts, the Thunder has 37 (37!!!!) draft picks. Seeing how rosters are 15 players and the Thunder was halfway decent (40-42) last year, it is unclear what they’ll do with all that draft capital.
I mean, in 2029, the Thunder has seven second round draft picks, and a first round pick.

— Movie of the Day: Percy vs Goliath (2020)— A Canadian farmer takes on a giant corporation after their GMOs interfere with his crops. As he speaks out against the company’s business practices, he realizes he is representing thousands of other disenfranchised farmers around the world fighting the same battle.
Christopher Walken plays the farmer; he is the reason to watch this movie, which apparently is a true story; Zach Braff plays his lawyer, Christina Ricci plays another lawyer who comes out of nowhere and encourages the farmer to challenge the big company.

— Florida International 33, Sam Houston State 27, OT
Panthers snap a 3-game skid, even their record at 4-4.
FIU forced OT with a 36-yard FG with 0:05 left in regulation.
0-7 Bearkats outgained FIU, 410-331

— New Mexico State 28, Texas-El Paso 7
Game was 7-7 at halftime.
Aggies ran ball 35 times for 253 yards.
UTEP converted only 2-12 third down plays.

— Liberty 42, Middle Tennessee 35
Game was 21-21 at halftime.
Liberty ran ball 61 times for 401 yards.
MTSU threw for 332 yards (9.0 yards/attempt).

— Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17
Gamecocks kicked 41-yard FG at the gun to win the game.
WKU led 17-7 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
Jacksonville State is 6-2, in its first season as a I-A team.

— South Alabama 55, Southern Miss 3
La’Damian Webb ran ball 20 times for 102 yards, four TD’s.
Jaguars outgained Southern Miss 647-149.
South Alabama won its last two games by a combined 110-10

— NFL commish Roger Goodell got a three-year contract extension through March 2027; financial stuff wasn’t announced, but supposedly he was banking around $60M a year the last few years.
Goodell has been NFL commissioner since 2006; the last NFL team that got sold before his tenure started sold for $600M (Vikings). Earlier this year, Washington Commanders were sold for $6.05B, so obviously, the NFL has profited greatly with Goodell as commissioner.
 
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Thursday, October 20

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NAS at NYR07:00 PMNYR -183
O 6.0		+500 +500
CAL at BUF07:00 PMCAL -107
O 6.5		+500 +500
TOR at FLA07:00 PMTOR -132
U 7.0		+500 +500
VAN at TB07:00 PMVAN +118
O 7.0		+500 +500
EDM at PHI07:30 PMPHI +179
O 6.5		+500 +500
LA at MIN08:00 PMMIN -107
U 6.0		+500 +500
ARI at STL08:00 PMARI +107
U 6.0		+500 +500
VEG at WIN08:00 PMVEG -108
U 6.0		+500 +500
DAL at ANA10:00 PMDAL -242
U 6.0		+500 +500
CAR at SEA10:00 PMCAR -139
O 6.0		+500 +500
BOS at SJ10:30 PMBOS -270
O 6.0		+500 +500
CHI at COL10:30 PMCHI +291
O 6.5		+500 +500
 
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