NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 11
Sunday’s games
Commanders vs Dolphins (-2.5) (@ Madrid, Spain)
Commanders (3-7)
Commanders lost last five games, last four by 22-21-24-22 points.
Washington gave up 25-44-28-38-44 points in those five games.
Washington gave up 25+ points in its losses, 24 or less in wins.
QB Mariota is 36-44 as an NFL starter; Josh Johnson is the backup.
Quinn is 63-57 as an NFL coach.
Commanders allowed 354+ yards in eight of last nine games.
Commanders are 3-7 ATS last ten games as an underdog.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 7-2 last nine games.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 5-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC teams.
Dolphins (3-7)
Miami won two of last three games, after a 1-6 start.
Miami allowed 27+ points in all six of its losses.
Dolphins are 0-5 when they score less than 27 points.
QB Tagovailoa is 41-32 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 31-32 as a head coach.
Miami is 4-5-2 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Dolphins are 0-5 when they run for less than 100 yards.
Dolphins went over their team total six of last eight games.
Miami is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC teams.
Miami won three of last four series games.
Favorites are 3-1 ATS in last four series games.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)
Bengals (3-5)
Bengals lost six of their last seven games.
Only win in that span was 33-31 vs Pittsburgh at home.
Over is 7-2 in Cincinnati games this season.
Flacco is 117-98 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 54-60-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is 9-6-1 ATS last 16 games as road underdogs.
Bengals are 3-1 ATS last four post-bye games.
Bengals converted 22-48 3rd down plays with Flacco at QB.
Last two games, Bengals allowed 254-283 rushing yards.
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC North road games.
Steelers (5-4)
Pittsburgh lost three of its last four games.
Steelers are 4-0 when they allow less than 25 points.
Pittsburgh is +12 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
QB Rodgers is 169-101-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 196-122-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
Steelers allowed 32-31-35-25 points in their four losses.
Steelers went over their team total five of last six games.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in last seven AFC North home games.
Teams split their last 12 series games.
Bengals won three of their last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.
Chargers (-2.5) @ Jaguars
Chargers (7-3)
Chargers won their last three games, giving up 13.3 ppg.
Last five games, Chargers scored 29-24-37-27-25 points.
Bolts are 4-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
QB Herbert is 47-43 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 66-32-1 as an NFL head coach.
Chargers are 12-7-2 ATS last 21 games as a road favorite (1-3 TY).
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 10-5 ATS in games coming off a win.
Bolts are 6-1 when they allow 21 or fewer points.
Chargers are 8-6 ATS last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last three games, Chargers allowed 164/206/221 yards.
Jaguars (5-4)
Jacksonville lost three of last four games, after a 4-1 start.
Jaguars blew a 29-10 4th quarter lead in LW’s loss at Houston.
Jacksonville is 4-2 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
QB Lawrence is 28-43 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 5-4 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars were +9 in turnovers first four games, minus-1 last five
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
Jaguars are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Jaguars were outgained 412-213 in last week’s loss.
Jaguars are 5-0 when they run for 100 yards, 0-4 when they don’t.
Jaguars won last two series games, 38-10/31-30
Chargers lost four of last six visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 4-0 in last four meetings.
Buccaneers @ Bills (-5.5)
Buccaneers (6-3)
Bucs are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-3 giving up 24+.
Last two games, Bucs ran ball for only 80.7 yards/game.
Last five games, Tampa Bay is +8 in turnovers.
Mayfield is 58-59 as an NFL starter, 26-20 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 60-71 as a head coach, 34-30 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Bucs are 4-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Bucs held six of nine opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Bucs are 12-3-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Tampa Bay is 10-6-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bucs are 8-5 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
Bills (6-3)
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo is +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Bills have four wins by 10+ points.
QB Allen is 89-43 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 98-55 as an NFL head coach.
Bills are 9-11 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite (0-3 TY).
Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in their home games TY.
Bills are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Buffalo is 6-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Buffalo gave up a punt return for TD in LW’s loss at Miami.
Home team won last six series games.
Tampa Bay lost last three visits to Buffalo, by 6-3-13 points.
Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings.
Bears @ Vikings (-3.5)
Bears (6-3)
Bears won six of their last seven games.
Bears are 5-0 scoring 25+ points, 1-3 otherwise.
In wins, Chicago was +17 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Ben Johnson is 6-3 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 11-15 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 14-22-2 ATS last 38 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 8-15-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Bears are 5-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Last two games, Bears gave up 495-431 total yards.
Chicago is 5-0 when it allows less than 27 points.
Vikings (4-5)
Vikings lost three of their last four games.
Vikings are 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last six games, Minnesota is minus-9 in turnovers.
McCarthy is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
O’Connell is 38-23 as an NFL head coach.
Vikings are 5-3 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 3-6 ATS in NFC North home games.
Vikings are 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Six of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.
Vikings lost three of their four home games SU.
Vikings (-1.5) won 27-24 at Chicago in Week 1.
Minnesota won eight of last nine series games.
Bears are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Texans (-6.5) @ Titans
Texans (4-5)
Houston is 4-2 in last six games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans scored 26+ points in wins, 9-19-10-19-15 in losses.
Houston outscored Jaguars 26-0 in 4th quarter of LW’s 36-29 win.
Backup QB Mills is 6-19-1 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 26-21 in as an NFL head coach.
Since 2016, Texans are 4-10-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Texans are 10-9-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
Texans gained 353+ yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 1-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Texans held six of last seven opponents under 300 total yards.
Titans (1-8)
Tennessee is 1-8 SU/3-6ATS, with six losses by 10+ points.
Titans are 1-3 ATS as a home underdog this year.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-8 as an NFL starter.
In their only win, Titans trailed 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Titans were held under 300 TY in seven of nine games.
Titans are 2-8 in last 10 AFC South home games.
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS last seven post-bye games.
Titans are 5-15 ATS in last 20 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Texans (-6.5) blanked Tennessee 26-0 in Week 4.
Houston outgained the Titans, 353-175
Houston won six of last eight series games.
Texans won/covered their last four visits to Nashville.
Six of last eight series games stayed under the total.
Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)
Panthers (5-5)
Carolina won four of its last six games.
Last four weeks, Panthers scored 13-9-16-7 points.
Last three games, Carolina was held to 244/265/175 total yards.
QB Young is 11-26 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 10-17 as a head coach.
Panthers are 7-14-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 10-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 1-4 when it allows more than 24 points.
Last four games, Panthers converted 19-55 third down plays.
Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 NFC South road games.
Falcons (3-6)
Atlanta lost in OT in Germany LW, didn’t take its bye this week.
Atlanta lost last four games, by 10-24-1-6 points.
Atlanta is +5 in turnovers in its three wins.
QB Penix is 4-7 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 32-53 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 7-16-1 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 9-12-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a loss.
Atlanta is 7-12 ATS in last 19 NFC South home games.
Last four games, Falcons were held under 300 total yards.
Under is 6-3 in Atlanta games.
Carolina blanked the Falcons 30-0 at home in Week 3.
Atlanta outgained the Panthers 332-224 in that game.
Teams split last six series games.
Panthers won three of their last five visits to Atlanta.
Under is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.
Packers (-6.5) @ Giants
Packers (5-3-1)
Packers lost last two games, scoring 13-7 points.
Green Bay is 5-0-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
Packers held seven of nine opponents under 300 TY.
QB Love is 24-20-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 75-41-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 5-14-1 ATS last 20 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 5-9-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Green Bay held last three opponents to 295/265/294 yards.
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2 last six games.
NFC North favorites are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Giants (2-8)
Giants lost last four games, fired their coach Monday.
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are 20-17 ATS last 37 games coming off a loss.
Jameis Winston is 36-51 as an NFL starter.
OC Kafka is the interim coach, will call plays.
Giants are 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog
Giants are 20-17 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
Giants went over team total in five of Dart’s seven starts.
Four of Giants’ last five games went over the total.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-9 in losses.
Giants won four of last six series games.
Green Bay lost three of last four visits to the Garden State
Over is 3-0 in last three meetings.
Seahawks @ Rams (-3.5)
Seahawks (7-2)
Seahawks won/covered seven of last eight games.
Seattle’s two losses were by 3-4 points.
Seahawks scored two defensive TD’s in first half last week.
Darnold is 42-41 as an NFL starter.
MacDonald is 17-9 as a head coach.
Last two games, Seattle scored 38-44 points.
In its losses, Seahawks gave up 384-426 total yards.
Seattle is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2-1
Rams (7-2)
Rams won last four games, allowing 3-7-10-26 points.
Rams are 6-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
Last four games, Rams are +6 in turnovers.
QB Stafford is 46-27 as the Rams’ starter (120-120-1 overall).
McVay is 95-59 as an NFL head coach.
Last five games, Rams outscored opponents 81-26 in first half.
In their losses, Rams allowed 33-26 points.
Rams are 16-7 ATS in last 23 games as a favorite.
Rams went over team total in six of last eight games.
Rams are 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
Teams split the last six series games.
Seahawks won two of last three visits to SoFi
Seattle WR Kupp was Super Bowl MVP for the Rams in 2021.
Under is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
49ers (-2.5) @ Cardinals
49ers (6-4)
49ers allowed 26-30-26-42 points in losses, 24 or less in wins.
SF ran ball for less than 85 yards in seven of last nine games.
In their four losses, 49ers were minus-8 in turnovers.
QB Jones is 25-33 as an NFL starter; Purdy is 28-16.
Shanahan is 84-70 as an NFL head coach
Last three games, 49ers allowed 26-24-42 points.
49ers are 10-6-1 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
49ers are 16-12 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss
49ers are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 NFC West road games.
49ers are 4-1 in games decided by 5 or less points.
Cardinals (3-6)
Cardinals lost six of their last seven games.
Arizona has five losses by four or fewer points.
Cardinals lost last three home games by 3-1-4 points.
Brissett is 20-37 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 15-28 in 2+ years as a head coach.
Seven of nine Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 20-11 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 23-15 ATS in last 38 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals are 6-13 ATS in last 19 NFC West home games.
49ers (-2.5) nipped Arizona 16-15 in Week 3.
49ers outgained the Cardinals 355-260 in that game.
San Francisco won five of last seven series games.
49ers split their last six visits to Arizona.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Ravens (-7.5) @ Browns
Ravens (4-5)
Baltimore won its last three games, scoring 30-28-27 points.
Last four games, Ravens allowed 17-16-6-19 points.
Last three games, Ravens were +7 in turnovers.
QB Jackson is 76-32 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 189-120 as an NFL head coach.
Ravens are 15-8 ATS last 23 games as a road favorite.
Ravens are 16-11 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
Baltimore is 0-4 when they allow more than 19 points.
Ravens are 5-7 ATS last 12 AFC North road games.
Last two weeks, opponents converted 5-26 third down plays.
Browns (2-7)
Browns are 0-7 when they allow more than 10 points.
Home teams are 8-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Last week, Browns gave up TD’s on a punt return/kick return.
Rookie QB Gabriel is 1-4 as an NFL starter.
Stefanski is 43-55 as a head coach.
Browns won two of their three home games.
Cleveland is 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
Browns are 6-13 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland gained less than 280 yards in six of last seven games.
Last four games, Browns are +6 in turnovers.
Ravens (-12) pounded Cleveland 41-17 in Week 2 (was 10-3 at half)
Baltimore won seven of last 11 series games.
Ravens lost three of last four visits to Cleveland.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Broncos
Chiefs (5-4)
Chiefs won/covered five of their last seven games.
Chiefs are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-3 giving up 21+.
Chiefs are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
QB Mahomes is 111-30 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 306-167-1 as an NFL head coach
Last six games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Chiefs are 8-8 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs are 9-4 ATS last 13 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
Under is 4-0 in last four Kansas City games.
Broncos (8-2)
Broncos won their last seven games (4-3 ATS)
Five of their last six wins were by 4 or fewer points.
Eight of their ten games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Nix is 18-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 187-116 as an NFL head coach, 26-19 with Denver.
Denver is 5-0 SU/2-3 ATS at home this season.
Denver is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
Denver is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 AFC West home games.
Denver is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Kansas City won 16 of last 18 series games.
That said, Chiefs lost 38-0/24-9 in last two visits to Denver.
Under is 4-0 in last four meetings.
Lions @ Eagles (–2.5)
Lions (6-3)
Detroit is 6-0 when it runs for 100+ yards, 0-3 when it doesn’t.
Lions are 1-3 when they score less than 34 points.
Detroit was held to 13-17-24 points in its losses.
QB Goff is 91-60-1 as an NFL starter, 49-33-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 53-40-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 14-9 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Lions held last three opponents to 251/258/288 total yards.
Detroit is 25-12 ATS last 37 games coming off a win
Favorites covered four of their five road games this year.
Last eight games, Lions are +7 in turnovers.
Eagles (7-2)
Eagles are 6-0 when they score 20+ points.
Eagles held last two opponents to 246/261 total yards.
Eagles were held to 17 points in both their losses.
QB Hurts is 58-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 60-25 as an NFL coach.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 19-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Philly is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, opponents ran ball for only 87 yards/game.
Last six weeks, opponents’ team total: over 6-1
Eagles are 14-2-1 ATS last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Teams split last eight series games.
This is the Lions’ first visit to Philadelphia since 2019.
Over is 7-0 in last seven series games.
