NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 13
Sunday’s games
49ers (-4) @ Browns
49ers (8-4)
49ers allowed 26-30-26-42 points in losses, 24 or less in wins.
SF is 2-11 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
In their four losses, 49ers were minus-8 in turnovers.
Purdy is 30-16 as an NFL starter.
Shanahan is 86-70 as an NFL head coach
49ers are 4-0 ATS as a road favorite this year.
49ers are 11-6-1 ATS last 18 games as a road favorite.
49ers’ last four wins were all by 10+ points.
Last two games, 49ers allowed 36-69 rushing yards.
49ers are 4-1 in games decided by 5 or less points.
NFC West favorites are 14-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Browns (2-8)
Cleveland gained less than 280 yards in last six games.
Browns held 7 of 11 opponents under 300 total yards.
Browns are 0-8 when they allow more than 10 points.
Rookie QB Sanders won his first NFL start last week.
Stefanski is 44-56 as a head coach.
Browns are 2-2 SU/4-0 ATS at home this year.
Cleveland is 10-6-1 ATS last 17 games as a home underdog.
Browns are 6-16-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
Cleveland gained less than 280 yards in seven of last eight games.
Last seven games, Browns are +8 in turnovers.
AFC North underdogs are 7-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Home team won last five series games.
49ers lost last three visits to Cleveland, by 2-14-13 points.
Under is 5-0-1 in last six meetings.
Jaguars (-6.5) @ Titans
Jaguars (7-4)
Jacksonville won three of last five games, scoring 30.3 ppg
Last seven weeks, Jaguars are minus-5 in turnovers.
Jacksonville is 5-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Lawrence is 30-43 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 7-4 as an NFL head coach.
Since 2020, Jaguars are 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Jaguars are 16-14 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Jaguars held 8 of last 20 opponents under 100 yards rushing.
Jaguars are 7-0 when they run for 100 yards, 0-4 when they don’t.
Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in last ten AFC South road games.
Titans (1-10)
Tennessee is 0-6 SU/3-3 ATS in last six games.
Titans covered their last three home games.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-10 as an NFL starter.
Titans’ last three losses were by 7-3-6 points.
Titans were held under 300 TY in nine of 11 games.
Titans are 3-8 ATS in last 11 AFC South home games.
Tennessee is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
Titans are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-3 in their last nine games.
Jacksonville won five of last six series games.
Jaguars won two of last three visits to Nashville.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
NFL-wide, home underdogs are 9-7 ATS in divisional games.
Texans @ Colts (-4.5)
Texans (6-5)
Houston won its last three games, by 7-3-4 points.
Texans are 5-0 when they score 20+ points.
QB Stroud (concussion) is expected back for this game.
Stroud is 24-20 as an NFL starter; he missed last three games.
Ryans is 28-21 in as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 12-9-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Texans are 11-10-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a win.
Texans held seven of last nine opponents under 300 total yards.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 3-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Last eight games, Texans are +13 in turnovers.
Colts (8-3)
Indy lost two of last three games, after a 7-1 start.
Colts are 8-0 scoring 29+ points (20-20-20 in losses)
Indy is minus-5 in turnovers in losses, +9 in wins.
QB Jones is 33-48-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 25-20 SU as a head coach
Under Steichen, Colts are 13-11 ATS as an underdog.
Colts are 8-9 ATS last 17 games as a home underdog.
Colts are 3-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Colts are 4-3 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Colts’ team total: over 8-3.
Texans are 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Houston won its last three visits to Indy, by 1-4-2 points.
Under is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 16-11 ATS in divisional games.
Saints @ Dolphins (-6)
Saints (2-9)
Saints lost five of their last six games.
Saints are +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-10 in losses.
Saints allowed 14-7 points in their two wins
26-year old rookie QB Shough is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
Kellen Moore is 2-9 as a head coach.
Saints are 5-6 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Saints are 6-13 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
In six of last seven games, Saints ran ball for less than 90 yards.
Saints are 0-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Saints are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC South underdogs are 11-14 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins (3-7)
Miami won two of last three games, after a 1-6 start.
Miami allowed 27+ points in all six of its losses.
Dolphins are 0-5 when they score less than 27 points.
QB Tagovailoa is 41-32 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 31-32 as a head coach.
Miami is 4-5-2 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Dolphins are 0-5 when they run for less than 100 yards.
Dolphins went over their team total six of last eight games.
Miami is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC teams.
AFC East favorites are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins won three of last four series games.
This is Saints’ first visit to Miami since 2017.
Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Falcons (-2.5) @ Jets
Falcons (4-7)
Atlanta snapped its five-game losing skid last week.
Falcons are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Atlanta is 1-7 when it allows more than 14 points.
QB Cousins is 85-78-2 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 33-54 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Falcons are 5-12 ATS last 17 games coming off a win.
Atlanta is 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC teams.
Five of last six games, Falcons were held to 302 or fewer total yards.
Over is 3-1 in last four Atlanta games.
Jets (2-9)
Jets are 0-7 when they score less than 27 points.
Last three weeks, Jets gained 169-245-282 total yards.
Last five games, Jets are minus-6 in turnovers.
Taylor is 28-31-1 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 2-9 as a head coach.
Jets are 11-17 ATS last 28 games as a home underdog
Jets are 11-17-1 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 6-20-1 last 27 games vs NFC opponents.
Jets are minus-13 in turnovers this season.
AFC East underdogs are 11-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Atlanta won five of last six series games.
Falcons won their last three games vs Jets in New Jersey.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Rams (-10.5) @ Panthers
Rams (9-2)
Rams won last six games, allowing 3-7-10-26-19-7 points.
Rams are 8-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
Last six games, Rams are +11 in turnovers.
QB Stafford is 48-27 as the Rams’ starter (122-120-1 overall).
McVay is 97-59 as an NFL head coach.
Last seven games, Rams outscored opponents 126-42 in first half.
In their losses, Rams allowed 33-26 points.
Rams are 17-8 ATS in last 25 games as a favorite.
Rams went over team total in seven of last ten games.
Rams are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Panthers (6-6)
Short week for Panthers after Monday’s loss at San Francisco
Carolina is 4-1 when they score 27+ points, 2-5 when they don’t
Panthers are 5-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Carolina is +3 in turnovers in wins, minus-6 in losses
QB Young is 12-27 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 11-18 as a head coach.
Panthers are 15-10-1 ATS last 26 games as a home underdog.
Carolina is 5-0 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 2-4 when it allows more than 24 points.
Last three games, Panthers ran ball for 73-67-69 yards.
Four of last five games, Carolina was held under 270 total yards.
Rams won last two series games, 24-10/30-27.
This is Rams’ first visit to Charlotte since 2019.
Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-3)
Cardinals (3-8)
Cardinals lost three in row, eight of last nine games.
Last three games, Arizona gave up 44-41-27 points.
Cardinals are 0-6 when they allow more than 22 points.
Brissett is 20-39 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 15-30 as an NFL head coach.
Eight of 11 Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 20-13 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 23-17 ATS in last 40 games coming off a loss.
NFC West underdogs are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buccaneers (6-5)
Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
Last ten games, Tampa Bay is +7 in turnovers.
QB Mayfield hurt his left shoulder LW (check status)
Mayfield is 58-61 as an NFL starter, 26-22 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 60-73 as a head coach, 34-32 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 6-5-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
Bucs are 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Bucs are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-5 giving up 24+.
Bucs are 4-2 in games decided by six or fewer points.
Over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s home games this year.
Buccaneers won last two series games, 19-16/30-27.
This is Cardinals’ first visit to Tampa since 2019.
Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Vikings @ Seahawks (-11.5)
Vikings (4-7)
Rookie QB Brosmer likely to get first NFL start here.
Wolford would be backup; he is 3-2 as an NFL starter.
Vikings lost three in row, five of their last six games.
Last eight games, Minnesota is minus-14 in turnovers.
O’Connell is 38-25 as an NFL head coach.
Vikings are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Four of last five games, Vikings gained less than 270 yards.
Vikings are 8-11-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Six of last nine Minnesota games went over the total.
Last five games, Vikings converted only 15 of 57 third down plays.
Seahawks (8-3)
Seahawks won five of their last six games.
Seattle’s three losses were by 3-4-2 points.
Seahawks held 8 of last 10 opponents under 300 TY.
Darnold is 43-42 as an NFL starter.
MacDonald is 18-10 as a head coach.
Seattle has four wins by 14+ points.
In losses, Seahawks are minus-5 in turnovers; in wins, +2.
Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Seattle is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win
Opponents’ team total: under 7-3-1
Minnesota won last two series games, 27-24/30-17.
Vikings are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in last six visits to Seattle.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Vikings won 27-24 at Seattle LY; Darnold played for Minnesota.
Raiders @ Chargers (-8.5)
Raiders (2-9)
Raiders lost five games in a row, nine of last ten.
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in their wins
Last six games, Raiders ran the ball for only 51.7 yards/game.
QB Geno Smith is 42-53 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-140-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders are 11-17-2 ATS last 30 games as an underdog.
Raiders are 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Las Vegas is 11-9 ATS last 20 AFC West road games.
Raiders are 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Las Vegas has six losses by 11+ points this season.
Chargers (7-4)
Chargers won three of their last four games.
Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS in last six post-bye games.
Bolts are 4-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
QB Herbert is 47-44 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 66-33-1 as an NFL head coach.
Chargers are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Chargers are 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC West home games.
Bolts are 6-1 when they allow 21 or fewer points.
Chargers are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Chargers held three of last four opponents under 225 total yards.
Chargers won/covered last four series games.
Raiders are 0-4 SU/ATS in last four road series games.
Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Bills (-3.5) @ Steelers
Bills (7-4)
Bills lost three of their last four road games.
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13-19 in losses.
Buffalo is +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
QB Allen is 90-44 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 99-56 as an NFL head coach.
Bills are 20-17 ATS last 37 games as a road favorite (2-3 TY).
Bills are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Buffalo is 7-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Last three games, Buffalo is minus-5 in turnovers.
AFC East road teams are 9-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Steelers (6-5)
Pittsburgh lost four of its last six games.
Steelers are 5-0 when they allow less than 25 points.
Pittsburgh is +14 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
Rodgers (left wrist) is ???; backup Rudolph is 9-10-1 as an NFL QB
QB Rodgers is 170-101-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 197-123-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 10-5-1 ATS last 16 games as a home underdog.
Pittsburgh is 12-6 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
Steelers allowed 32-31-35-25-31 points in their five losses.
Steelers went over their team total seven of last eight games.
AFC North underdogs are 7-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buffalo won four of last five series games.
This is Bills’ first visit to Pittsburgh since 2019.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Broncos (-6) @ Commanders
Broncos (9-2)
Broncos won their last eight games, last three by 3-3-3 points.
Six of their last seven wins were by 4 or fewer points.
Denver held six of last eight opponents under 100 YR.
QB Nix is 19-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 188-116 as an NFL head coach, 27-19 with Denver.
Denver is 2-5 ATS last seven games as a road favorite.
Denver is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall.
Denver is 7-1 ATS in last eight games vs NFC opponents.
Denver is 12-3 ATS in last 15 games coming off a bye.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Commanders (3-8)
Commanders are 0-6 SU/ATS in their last six games.
Washington gave up 25-44-28-38-44 points in those five games.
Washington gave up 25+ points in its losses, 24 or less in wins.
QB Mariota is 36-44 as an NFL starter; Josh Johnson is the backup.
Quinn is 63-57 as an NFL coach.
Commanders allowed 354+ yards in eight of last nine games.
Commanders are 0-4 in games decided by 9 or fewer points.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 7-3 last ten games.
Washington is 1-7 ATS in last eight games coming off a bye.
Washington is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games vs AFC teams.
Teams split last six series games.
This is Broncos’ first visit to Washington since 2017.
Under is 4-3 in last seven meetings.
