Cnotes College Football News-Notes-Rumors-Best Bets 2025-2026 !

[Cnotes53]

Notes on football teams in the SEC:

— Alabama
Last five years, Alabama is 37-26 (58.7%) against spread.
New QB Simpson threw only 25 passes as the backup LY.
Had only 25 sacks last year, their fewest since 2013.

— Arkansas
Arkansas has only 3 starters back on offense, 3 more on defense.
Hogs gained 459.5 yards/game last year, #10 in country.
Arkansas allowed 246.9 passing yards/game (#110)

— Auburn
Auburn scored only 19.1 ppg in its SEC games (2-6) last year
Tigers had a minus-9 turnover ratio (#119)
Auburn was 1-3 LY in games decided by 7 or fewer points.

— Florida
Six starters back on offense, seven on defense, a lot for an SEC team.
Gators have four starters back on the offensive line.
Florida was helped last year by its +6 turnover ratio (#35)

— Georgia
Last two years, Dawgs are only 9-17 ATS
Georgia has only seven of 22 starters back from LY.
Dawgs ran ball for only 124.4 yards/game LY, #102 in country.

— Kentucky
Wildcats have only 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Kentucky missed a bowl LY for first time in nine years.
Wildcats threw ball for only 184.8 yards/game LY (#112)

— LSU
Only six of 22 starters are back, only one on offensive line.
Gave up 364.4 yards/game LY, #61 in country. Mediocre.
QB Nussmeier is in his 5th year; his dad is the Saints’ offensive coordinator. .

— Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin has a 44-18 record in five years with the Rebels.
Ole Miss has only five of 22 starters back this year.
Rebels scored 38.6 ppg LY, #3 in country.

— Mississippi State
Bulldogs were 2-10 LY, including a 41-17 home loss to Toledo.
Miss State allowed 216.9 rushing yards/game (#129)
Bulldogs have only three starters back on defense.

— Missouri
Tigers have 7 starters back on defense, only 4 on offense.
Mizzou allowed only 317.5 yards/game LY, #17 in country.
Tigers don’t play a road game until October 18, at Auburn.

— Oklahoma
Sooners have a new OC, who is 29; he brought the QB from Wazzu with him.
Oklahoma gained only 331 yards/game LY, #113 in country.
Oklahoma has only three starters back on offense.

— South Carolina
Gamecocks allowed only 18.1 ppg LY, #12 in country.
South Carolina has a new punter, kicker, long snapper, holder for kicks.
Gamecocks haven’t won a league title since they won the ACC in 1969.

— Tennessee
New QB Aguilar is a transfer from Appalachian State, via UCLA.
Aguilar threw for 6,700+ yards, 56 TD’s in two years at App State.
Vols have 7 starters back from a defense that allowed 16.1 ppg LY (#7 in country)

— Texas
Only 3 starters back on offense; Arch Manning is the new QB.
Texas ranked 71st in country in rushing yards LY; they’ve got 4 new starters on OL
First 4 weeks in October; three road games, and the Oklahoma game in Dallas.

— Texas A&M
Have six starters back on offense, seven on defense.
Aggies ran ball for 195.5 yards/game LY (#26); they’ve got 4 starters back on OL
A&M lost four of last four games LY, after a 7-1 start.

— Vanderbilt
Last year’s 7-6 season was their best since 2013.
Vandy brought in six transfers who play on OL, to protect QB Pavia.
Someone offered Pavia $4M to bolt to their school; he declined the offer.

 

[Cnotes53]

Notes for Big X football teams:

Arizona
Wildcats have had only one winning season the last seven years.
Arizona won four of its last five bowl games SU

Arizona State
Coach Dillingham is 7-1 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2017, Sun Devils are 41-27 ATS in league games, 9-16-1 in non-league games.

Baylor
Last four years, Bears are 10-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Baylor has 73 starts back on offensive line, which is good- they were 8-5 last year, only their second winning season the last five years.

Brigham Young
Coach Sitake is 17-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Coach Sitake is 27-35 as a favorite.

Central Florida
Since 2019, Knights are 7-16 ATS as a road favorite.
Coach Frost is 12-6 ATS as a road underdog. He is back at UCF this year after he had previously coach the Knights in 2016-17.

Cincinnati
Last two years, Bearcats are 8-16 SU; their last bowl win was in 2019.
Coach Satterfield is 17-9 ATS as a road favorite.

Colorado
Under Coach Sanders, Colorado is 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, Buffaloes were +21 in turnovers.

Houston
Coach Fritz is 44-27 ATS as a favorite.
Last three years, Houston was 9-16-1 in conference games.

Iowa State
Coach Campbell is 25-14-2 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2015, Cyclones are 35-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Kansas
Last two years, Jayhawks are 8-3 ATS as an underdog.
Kansas won 4 of its last 5 bowl games, scoring 42 ppg, but only two of those five bowls have been played since 2008.

K-State
Coach Klieman is 25-13 ATS in home games.
Since 2016, Wildcats are 27-13 ATS coming off a loss.

Oklahoma State
Cowboys were 3-9 LY, missing a bowl for first time in 19 years.
OSU is 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a home dog, 24-9 ATS in last 33 non-league games.

TCU
Since 2018, Horned Frogs are 5-11-1 as a road underdog.
TCU has 3 starters/93 starts back on OL; they were 9-4 LY, despite a -6 turnover ratio.

Texas Tech
Last four years, Red Raiders are 16-6 ATS coming off a loss
Coach McGuire is 9-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Tech has 136 starts back on the offensive line; very experienced.

Utah
Coach Whittingham is 39-26 ATS as an underdog.
Utes lost their last five bowl games; they were favored in three of the five games.

West Virginia
Coach Rodriguez is 20-31 ATS as a road underdog.
Last five years, Mountaineers are 13-4 ATS as a home favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Trends for SEC football teams​

SEC football notes:

— Alabama
Since 2020, they’re 22-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last seven years, Crimson Tide is +57 in turnovers.

— Arkansas
Pittman is 19-11 ATS as an underdog.
Razorbacks are 8-14-1 ATS last 23 games as a favorite.

— Auburn
Since 2015, Tigers are 21-30-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Auburn lost its last four bowl games (favored in 3 of the 4)

— Florida
Napier is 12-18-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Napier is 23-10-1 ATS as an underdog.

— Georgia
Last four years, Dawgs were 8-16-1 ATS as home favorites.
Georgia is 4-11-1 ATS in last sixteen non-conference games.

— Kentucky
Last four years, Wildcats are minus-22 in turnovers.
Since 2019, Kentucky is 17-10-1 ATS as an underdog.

— LSU
Under Kelly, LSU is 14-6 ATS at home.
Tigers won five of last six bowl games, scoring 44.5 ppg.

— Ole Miss
Last two years, Rebels were 21-5 SU (+21 turnovers)
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 10-5-1 as a road favorite.

— Miss State
Last two years, Bulldogs are 7-17 SU
Since 2019, MSU is 2-13-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.

— Missouri
Last two years, Tigers were 21-8 SU (+18 turnovers)
Last three years, Mizzou is 10-4 ATS on the road.

— Oklahoma
Last four years, Sooners are 3-10-1 ATS as road favorites.
Last three years, Oklahoma is 10-15-1 ATS in conference games.

— South Carolina
Coach Beamer is 14-6 ATS as a favorite.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.

— Tennesssee
Since 2020, Tennessee is 4-14 ATS as an underdog.
Under Heupel, Vols are 15-8 ATS as a home favorite.

— Texas
Since 2016, Longhorns are 23-12-1 ATS in non-league games.
Coach Sarkisian is 10-18 ATS as a road underdog.

— Texas A&M
Coach Elko is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite, 2-6 as a road favorite.
Aggies are 3-10-2 ATS in their last fifteen road games.

— Vanderbilt
Since 2020, Vandy is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Commodores are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 home games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s Den: Trends for teams in the Big Ten Conference​

Trends for football teams in the Big Ten (Big 18) Conference:

— Illinois
Since 2017, they’re 9-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, they’re 26-35 ATS coming off a loss.
In his career, Bielema is 27-17-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Indiana
Cignetti is 23-8 ATS as a favorite.
Indiana was 11-2 SU last year, +15 in turnovers.
From 2021-23, Indiana was 9-27, minus-22 in turnovers.

— Iowa
Since 2014, Hawkeyes are 21-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Ferentz is 18-13-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Maryland
Since 2017, Terrapins are 17-7 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Locksley is 11-22 ATS as a road underdog.

— Michigan
Michigan was 8-5 SU last year (40-3 SU from 2021-23)
Wolverines are 7-11-2 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Since 2019, Michigan is 31-20-3 ATS in conference games.

— Michigan State
Last three years, Spartans went 5-7/4-8/5-7 (minus-18 in turnovers)
In his career, Jonathan Smith is 16-9 ATS as a road underdog.

— Minnesota
In his career, Fleck is 25-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Gophers won/covered their last five bowl games.

— Nebraska
Ruhle is 34-19-1 ATS as an underdog, 13-7 as a home dog, 11-5 as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Nebraska is 25-37-3 ATS at home.

— Northwestern
Since 2021, Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Wildcats are 23-14 ATS as a road underdog.
Northwestern won its last five bowl games (was underdog in 3 of the 5)

— Ohio State
Ryan Day is 26-16 ATS as a home favorite.
In their last 131 games, Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
Former NFL coach Matt Patricia is Ohio State’s new defensive coordinator.

— Oregon
Last three years, Oregon is 26-15 ATS.
Ducks are 9-3 ATS as a road favorite in conference games.
Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a single digit favorite in conference games.

— Penn State
Last three years, PSU is 34-8 SU (+11/+16/+11 in turnovers)
Since 2021, Penn State is 16-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Overall, Nittany Lions are 27-11-1 ATS in last 39 games as a favorite.

— Purdue
Last three years, Purdue was 2-15 ATS at home.
Since 2016, Purdue is 5-16 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, new coach Odom is 20-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2020, Boilermakers are 14-28 ATS in conference games.

— Rutgers
Since 2021, Scarlet Knights are 12-3 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Schiano is 36-22-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— USC
In his career, Riley is 29-19 ATS as a home favorite, 9-21-1 as a road favorite.
Since 2021, Trojans are 14-23 ATS in conference games.

— UCLA
Since 2015, Bruins are 14-27 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Bruins are 10-20-1 ATS in non-conference games.
UCLA lost three of last four bowl games, giving up 37.8 ppg.

— Washington
Since 2018, Washington is 22-38 ATS in conference games.
Since 2015, Huskies are 8-14 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, under is 24-11 in Washington’s away games.

— Wisconsin
Since 2018, Wisconsin is 16-24 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Badgers are 23-11 ATS as a road favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s Den: Trends for Mountain West football teams……..​

Air Force
Falcons are 14-7-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Since 2015, Air Force is 16-26-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Air Force won/covered its last five bowl games.

Boise State
Since 2019, Boise State is 41-24-2 ATS in Mountain West games.
Broncos are 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Boise State is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.

Colorado State
Last year was Rams’ first winning season since 2017.
Last three years, Colorado State is 4-10 ATS in non-conference games.
Rams are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five bowl games.

Fresno State
Since 2016, Bulldogs are 8-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2017, Fresno is 21-13-1 ATS in non-conference games.
New coach went 60-11 at I-AA North Dakota State, winning two national titles.

Hawaii
Since 2015, Rainbows are 9-21-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Hawaii is 17-28 ATS in its last 45 road games.
Last three years, Rainbows are 14-8-1 ATS in conference games.

Nevada
Last three years, Wolf Pack was 2-21 SU/8-14-1 ATS in conference games.
Nevada is 3-2 SU in last five bowls (underdog in 4 of 5, pick ‘em in the 5th)
Since 2016, Wolf Pack is 17-23-1 ATS in games coming off a win.

UNLV
Last two years, Rebels were 9-5/11-3 SU; from 2015-22, they were 27-63.
In his career, Dan Mullen is 49-34-1 ATS at home.
Last three years, UNLV is 13-2 ATS in non-conference games.

New Mexico
Lobos have had eight consecutive losing seasons.
New Mexico is 9-21-2 ATS in its last 32 conference games.
Lobos haven’t been to a bowl game since 2016.
Last time they went to a bowl outside of New Mexico? 2004.

San Diego State
Last four years, Aztecs are 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Aztecs are 16-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, San Diego State is 26-17-1 ATS as an underdog.

San Jose State
Last two years, San Jose State is 8-4 ATS as a favorite.
Spartans lost their last four bowls; they were favored in all four.
In his career, coach Niumatalolo is 34-20 ATS as a road dog.

Utah State
Last three years, Aggies went 6-7/6-7/4-8 SU.
Since 2016, Utah State is 20-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, coach Mendenhall is 57-37-1 ATS in non-conference games.

Wyoming
Cowboys were 3-9 LY, just their second losing season in eight years.
Since 2016, Wyoming is 19-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 29-18-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s Den: Trends for ACC football teams…….

Trends for ACC football teams…….

Boston College
Bill O’Brien is 30-20 ATS as a college coach.
Since 2017, Eagles are 17-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Boston College is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.

Cal (why is Cal in the ATLANTIC Coast Conference?!?!?!)
As a head coach, Wilcox is 32-16 ATS as an underdog.
As a head coach, Wilcox is 15-23-1 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2017, Golden Bears are 13-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Last three years, Cal is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games.

Clemson
Clemson has a senior QB who has already started 28 games.
Last four years, Tigers are 11-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Clemson is 7-2 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.

Duke
Last three years, Duke was 9-4/8-5/9-4 SU
Last three years, Duke is 15-9 ATS in ACC games.
Blue Devils are 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog.
Duke is 12-17 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.

Florida State
Seminoles finished under .500 five of last seven years.
FSU is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games coming off a loss.
As a head coach, Norvell is 16-8 ATS as a road favorite.
As a head coach, Norvell is 5-13-2 ATS as a road underdog.

Georgia Tech
Since 2018, Tech is 7-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Tech is 3-10 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Key, Tech is 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
Under Key, Tech is 14-9 ATS in ACC games.

Louisville
Louisville has a veteran offensive line (203 career starts)
Senior QB Moss started 10 games at USC.
Last five years, Louisville is 18-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Cardinals are 1-7 ATS as a road favorite.

Miami
Since 2017, Miami is 27-39 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Cristobal is 18-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Miami lost its last five bowl games (favored in 3 of 5 games)
Since 2017, Miami is 22-36 ATS in games coming off a loss.

North Carolina
Bill Belichick is the new coach; not sure how much these trends mean.
Tar Heels have a veteran offensive line (155 career starts)
Last three years, Carolina is 6-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Tar Heels lost their last five bowl games, giving up 32.8 ppg.

NC State
Last five years, Wolfpack is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Last three years, State is 4-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2019, State is 16-27 ATS in games coming off a win.
Wolfpack lost their last four bowls, three of them by 5 or fewer points.

Pittsburgh
In his career, Narduzzi is 18-25-3 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Narduzzi is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Panthers are 1-9 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
Pitt has a veteran offensive line (78 career starts)

SMU
Last two years, Mustangs went 11-3/11-3.
Since 2015, SMU is 28-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2020, Mustangs are 3-8 ATS as a road underdog.
SMU lost its last four bowls (favored in 3 of the 4)

Stanford (why is Stanford in the ATLANTIC Coast Conference?!?!?!)
Stanford fired their coach for bullying last March
Former NFL coach Frank Reich is the interim coach for this year.
Last four years, Cardinal went 3-9 every year (minus-29 in turnovers)
Since 2020, Stanford is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite.

Syracuse
Syracuse was 10-3 last year, their best season since 2018.
Orangemen are 7-2 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Last three years, Syracuse is 3-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, Syracuse is 7-4 ATS as a home favorite.

Virginia
Last three years, Cavaliers are 15-8 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2020, Virginia is 26-15 ATS in ACC games.
Since 2020, Virginia is 14-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last four years, Cavaliers are minus-23 in turnovers.

Virginia Tech
Last two years, Tech is 11-5 ATS in ACC games, 3-7 out of conference.
Hokies lost four of last five bowls, giving up 34 ppg.
Tech hired West Virginia’s OL coach; he brought three linemen with him.
Hokies have a senior QB who has started 20 games.

Wake Forest
Wake has a new head coach, who brought in a top 25 transfer class.
Deacons have 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
Since 2017, Wake is 19-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Wake’s QB has already spent time at Auburn, South Carolina.