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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Top 13 games of the week
Virginia vs NC State (-3)
Virginia (1-0)
Virginia (-18) routed Coastal Carolina 48-7 at home LW.
Virginia outgained the Chanticleers, 454-254
Cavaliers have had three straight losing seasons.
Cavaliers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 182 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morris started 21 games at North Texas, TCU.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 15-8 ATS as an underdog.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 15-8 ATS in ACC games.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
NC State (1-0)
NC State (-13) beat East Carolina LW, 24-17.
ECU threw for 383 yards: total yardage, 423-413, Wolfpack
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Bailey started 9 games LY (2,413 PY; 17 TD’s, 10 INTs)
Wolfpack was 6-7 LY, its first losing year since 2019.
Wolfpack is 5-14 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite.
Last 3 years, State is 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Deoren, Wolfpack is 39-44 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2 years, Wolfpack is 10-6ATS in conference games.
NC State is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six series games.
Cavaliers are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Raleigh.
Iowa vs Iowa State (-3)
Iowa (1-0)
Iowa drubbed a I-AA team 34-7 last week.
Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 85 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gronowski started 55 games at I-AA South Dakota State.
Iowa hasn’t had a losing season since 2012.
Since 2021, Hawkeyes are 7-4 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Ferentz is 53-44-4 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Iowa is 15-9 ATS in non-conference games.
Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS last week.
Iowa State (2-0)
Iowa State nipped K-State 24-21 in Ireland, drilled a I-AA team LW.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
ISU was 11-3 LY, won their first bowl since 2020.
In his career, Campbell is 47-48-2 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, ISU is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2018, Cyclones are 11-14 ATS in non-league games.
Big X teams were 5-2 ATS last week.
Iowa won seven of last nine series games.
Hawkeyes are 6-0 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six visits to Ames.
Under is 17-3 in last 20 meetings.
Baylor @ SMU (-3)
Baylor (0-1)
Baylor (+2.5) lost 38-24 at home to Auburn LW.
Auburn ran for 307 yards; Baylor threw for 419 yards.
Bears have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Robertson had 3,071 PY (28 TD’s, 8 INTs) LY.
Bears were 8-5 LY, after 6-7/3-9 seasons.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 10-8 ATS as a road dog.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 16-15 ATS as a underdog overall..
Baylor is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 non-league games.
Bears had a positive turnover ratio the last six years.
Big X teams were 5-2 ATS last week.
SMU (1-0)
SMU drilled a I-AA team 42-13 last week.
Mustangs were 11-3/11-3 the last two years.
Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mustangs have 117 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started 13 times the last two years.
SMU lost ACC title game LY, 34-31 to Clemson
Last two years, SMU is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 17-10 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 5-10 ATS in non-conference games.
ACC teams were 4-6 ATS last week.
These teams haven’t met since 2016.
Illinois (-3) @ Duke
Illinois (1-0)
Illinois drilled a I-AA team 52-3 last week.
Illinois has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Illini has 193 returning starts on OL.
Senior QB Altmyer has 23 career starts.
Illinois was 10-3 LY, its second winning year the last 10 years.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-4 ATS on the road.
In his career, Bielema is 17-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 6-8-1 ATS in non-league games.
Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS last week.
Duke (1-0)
Duke poached Tulane’s QB, is paying him $4M this year.
Duke beat a I-AA team 45-17 last week.
QB Mensah threw for 389 yards in that game.
Mensah started 13 games at Tulane.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last three years, Duke is 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Since 2020, Duke is 13-7 ATS in non-league games.
ACC teams were 4-6 ATS last week.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Ole Miss (-10) @ Kentucky
Ole Miss (1-0)
Ole Miss (-33) gained 695 yards LW, pounded Georgia State 63-7.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Simmons was 20-31/341 passing last week.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 22-18-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 10-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 20-18-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 17-22-2 ATS in SEC games.
Kentucky (1-0)
Kentucky (-9.5) beat Toledo 24-16 last week.
Rockets outgained Kentucky, 329-305.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Wildcats have 170 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Calzada started 21 games at Texas A&M in 2021, then was at Auburn, I-AA Incarnate Word the last three years.
Kentucky is 7-3 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
In his career, Mark Stoops is 11-15-2 ATS as a home dog.
Last four years, Kentucky is 17-15 ATS in SEC games.
Last 4+ years, Wildcats are minus-23 in turnovers.
Ole Miss won seven of last 10 series games.
This is Rebels’ first visit to Lexington since 2020.
Kansas @ Missouri (-6)
Kansas (2-0)
Kansas beat Fresno State 31-7, whacked a I-AA team 46-7.
Jayhawks have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Kansas has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Daniels started 12 games last year.
In his career, Leipold is 13-21-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 7-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Kansas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 12-8-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last week, Big X teams were 5-2 ATS.
Missouri (1-0)
Mizzou drubbed a I-AA team 61-6 last week.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last 2 years, Junior QB Pribula was a backup QB at Penn State.
Mizzou was 6-2 ATS as a favorite last season.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 19-18-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 9-10-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, SEC teams were 5-5 ATS
These former rivals haven’t met since 2011.
Fresno State @ Oregon State (-3)
Fresno State (1-1)
Fresno split its first two games, despite a minus-5 turnover ratio.
FSU’s new coach won two I-AA national titles at North Dakota State.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Fresno has 50 starts returning on offensive line.
EJ Warner (Kurt’s son) is the new QB; he has 31 career starts (Temple/Rice)
Since 2017, Fresno is 12-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Fresno is 15-8-1 ATS in its last 24 games as an underdog.
Bulldogs are 13-10 ATS in their last 21 non-conference tilts.
Bulldogs ran ball for 37 yards vs Kansas, 351 vs Georgia Southern.
Last week, Mountain West teams were 8-4 ATS.
Oregon State (0-1)
Beavers (+1.5) lost 34-15 at home to Cal last week.
Golden Bears outgained OSU, 356-313
Oregon State has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Beavers have 44 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Murphy started 12 games at Duke.
OSU went 5-7 LY, after three straight winning years.
OSU was 1-3 ATS as a home favorite LY (12-2 from 2021-23)
Beavers aren’t in a league this year; they will be next year.
Beavers are 4-9 ATS last in their last 13 games.
Oregon State (even) won last meeting, 35-32 in 2022.
Western Kentucky @ Toledo (-7)
Western Kentucky (2-0)
WKU (-10.5) beat Sam Houston 41-24, beat I-AA team 55-6 LW.
Hilltoppers have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
WKU has 58 starts back on offensive line- lot of transfers.
Senior QB McIvor (20 starts) comes in with his OC from I-AA Abilene Christian.
In their opener, Hilltoppers threw for 406 yards against the Bearkats.
Since 2018, Hilltoppers are 17-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Helton, WKU is 17-11 as an underdog, 13-8 on road.
Last four years, WKU was 13-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Last week, C-USA teams were 2-2 ATS
Toledo (0-1)
Toledo (+9.5) lost 24-16 at Kentucky last week.
Rockets outgained Kentucky, 329-305
Toledo has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Rockets have 42 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gleason started 12 games LY.
Last three years, Toledo is 9-9 ATS as a home favorite.
In 9 years under coach Candle, Rockets are 38-42 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, Rockets are 6-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Last week, MAC teams were 6-4 ATS, all as underdogs.
Hilltoppers (+2.5) beat Toledo 24-21 at home last year.
Rockets outgained WKU, 325-207
Boston College @ Michigan State (-3)
Boston College (1-0)
BC beat a I-AA team 66-10 LW, throwing for 458 yards.
Eagles have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Eagles have 66 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Lonergan was a backup at Alabama LY.
Last 2 years, Boston College is 6-4 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, O’Brien is 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Eagles are 35-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, ACC teams are 4-10 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, ACC teams were 4-6 ATS
Michigan State (1-0)
Spartans (-22) beat Western Michigan 23-6 at home last week.
MSU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Spartans have 89 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Chiles started 12 games last year.
Last three years, Spartans were 5-7/4-8/5-7.
MSU is 0-5 ATS last five games as a home favorite.
In his career, coach Smith is 15-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Spartans are 9-4 ATS in last 13 non-league games.
Last week, Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Michigan vs Oklahoma (-6)
Michigan (1-0)
Michigan (-34) beat New Mexico 34-17 last week.
Wolverines have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Michigan has 77 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Underwood threw for 251 yards in his college debut.
Since 2020, Michigan is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Michigan was 3-3 ATS as an underdog in Moore’s first year as coach.
Last 3 years, Wolverines were 5-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Last week, Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS
Oklahoma (1-0)
Oklahoma beat a I-AA team 35-3 last week.
Sooners finished 6-7 two of the last three years.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Overall under Venables, Sooners are 14-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 9-4 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, SEC teams were 5-5 ATS.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
UCLA (-2.5) @ UNLV
UCLA (0-1)
UCLA (+5) lost 43-10 at home to Utah last week.
Utah outgained the Bruins, 492-220.
UCLA has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Bruins have 91 returning starts on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Soph QB Iamaleava started 14 games at Tennessee.
UCLA was 5-7 LY, after three straight winning seasons.
Since 2021, UCLA is 6-3 ATS as a road favorite.
UCLA was 0-2 ATS as a favorite last year.
Last 10+ years, Bruins are 10-21-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS.
UNLV (2-0)
UNLV beat a I-AA team 38-31, won 38-21 at Sam Houston.
UNLV has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
New coach Mullen is 105-61 in his college career.
Rebels have 37 starts returning on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Junior QB Colandrea started 11 games at Virginia LY.
Last week, Rebels outgained Sam Houston 404-332.
UNLV was 9-5/11-3 last 2 years, but most of those people are gone.
Last four years, UNLV is 17-9 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Mullen is 15-10 ATS as a home underdog.
Last week, Mountain West teams were 8-4 ATS.
These teams haven’t met since 2016.
San Diego State @ Washington State (-1.5)
San Diego State (1-0)
Aztecs blanked a I-AA team 42-0 last week.
San Diego State has 4 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Aztecs have 67 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB Denegal was a backup at Michigan for two years.
Aztecs went 4-8/3-9 the last two seasons.
Since 2021, San Diego State is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, coach Lewis is 12-17 ATS as a home favorite.
San Diego State is 5-9 ATS last 14 non-conference games.
Last week, Mountain West teams were 8-4 ATS.
Washington State (1-0)
Wazzu snuck past I-AA Idaho 13-10 last week.
Coogs were outgained 221-211, ran ball for only 3 yards.
Coogs have 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
QB Potter was 23-30/208 in his first college start.
Last three years, Wazzu is 8-6 ATS as a home favorite.
New coach Rogers was HC at I-AA South Dakota State.
Coogs have had winning seasons in 7 of last 10 years.
Since 2021, Wazzu is 14-10-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Coogs (+14.5) upset San Diego State 29-26 last year.
Aztecs outgained Wazzu, 414-371
That was teams’ first meeting since 2011.
Arizona State (-7) @ Mississippi State
Arizona State (1-0)
ASU beat a I-AA team 38-19 last week.
ASU has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Sun Devils have 76 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Leavitt had 2,885 PY LY, with 24 TD’s, 6 INTs.
Sun Devils were 11-3 LY, after 3-9/3-9 seasons.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 7-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Dillingham, Sun Devils are 4-3 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, Big X teams were 5-2 ATS.
Mississippi State (1-0)
Miss State (-14) won 34-17 at Southern Miss last week.
Bulldogs outgained USM, 465-301
Bulldogs have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bulldogs have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen has 27 career starts.
Since 2019, MSU is 2-13-1 ATS as a home underdog.
MSU was 5-5 ATS as a dog last year, Lebby’s first year as HC.
Bulldogs are 8-4-1 ATS in last 15 games non-league games.
Last week, SEC teams were 5-5 ATS, 1-1 as an underdog.
Arizona State (-5.5) beat the Bulldogs 30-23 last year.
ASU ran ball for 346 yards, outgained Miss State, 415-292
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Top 13 games of the week
Virginia vs NC State (-3)
Virginia (1-0)
Virginia (-18) routed Coastal Carolina 48-7 at home LW.
Virginia outgained the Chanticleers, 454-254
Cavaliers have had three straight losing seasons.
Cavaliers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 182 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morris started 21 games at North Texas, TCU.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 15-8 ATS as an underdog.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 15-8 ATS in ACC games.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
NC State (1-0)
NC State (-13) beat East Carolina LW, 24-17.
ECU threw for 383 yards: total yardage, 423-413, Wolfpack
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Bailey started 9 games LY (2,413 PY; 17 TD’s, 10 INTs)
Wolfpack was 6-7 LY, its first losing year since 2019.
Wolfpack is 5-14 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite.
Last 3 years, State is 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Deoren, Wolfpack is 39-44 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2 years, Wolfpack is 10-6ATS in conference games.
NC State is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six series games.
Cavaliers are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Raleigh.
Iowa vs Iowa State (-3)
Iowa (1-0)
Iowa drubbed a I-AA team 34-7 last week.
Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 85 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gronowski started 55 games at I-AA South Dakota State.
Iowa hasn’t had a losing season since 2012.
Since 2021, Hawkeyes are 7-4 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Ferentz is 53-44-4 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Iowa is 15-9 ATS in non-conference games.
Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS last week.
Iowa State (2-0)
Iowa State nipped K-State 24-21 in Ireland, drilled a I-AA team LW.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
ISU was 11-3 LY, won their first bowl since 2020.
In his career, Campbell is 47-48-2 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, ISU is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2018, Cyclones are 11-14 ATS in non-league games.
Big X teams were 5-2 ATS last week.
Iowa won seven of last nine series games.
Hawkeyes are 6-0 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six visits to Ames.
Under is 17-3 in last 20 meetings.
Baylor @ SMU (-3)
Baylor (0-1)
Baylor (+2.5) lost 38-24 at home to Auburn LW.
Auburn ran for 307 yards; Baylor threw for 419 yards.
Bears have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Robertson had 3,071 PY (28 TD’s, 8 INTs) LY.
Bears were 8-5 LY, after 6-7/3-9 seasons.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 10-8 ATS as a road dog.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 16-15 ATS as a underdog overall..
Baylor is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 non-league games.
Bears had a positive turnover ratio the last six years.
Big X teams were 5-2 ATS last week.
SMU (1-0)
SMU drilled a I-AA team 42-13 last week.
Mustangs were 11-3/11-3 the last two years.
Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mustangs have 117 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started 13 times the last two years.
SMU lost ACC title game LY, 34-31 to Clemson
Last two years, SMU is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 17-10 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 5-10 ATS in non-conference games.
ACC teams were 4-6 ATS last week.
These teams haven’t met since 2016.
Illinois (-3) @ Duke
Illinois (1-0)
Illinois drilled a I-AA team 52-3 last week.
Illinois has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Illini has 193 returning starts on OL.
Senior QB Altmyer has 23 career starts.
Illinois was 10-3 LY, its second winning year the last 10 years.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-4 ATS on the road.
In his career, Bielema is 17-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 6-8-1 ATS in non-league games.
Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS last week.
Duke (1-0)
Duke poached Tulane’s QB, is paying him $4M this year.
Duke beat a I-AA team 45-17 last week.
QB Mensah threw for 389 yards in that game.
Mensah started 13 games at Tulane.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last three years, Duke is 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Since 2020, Duke is 13-7 ATS in non-league games.
ACC teams were 4-6 ATS last week.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Ole Miss (-10) @ Kentucky
Ole Miss (1-0)
Ole Miss (-33) gained 695 yards LW, pounded Georgia State 63-7.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Simmons was 20-31/341 passing last week.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 22-18-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 10-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 20-18-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 17-22-2 ATS in SEC games.
Kentucky (1-0)
Kentucky (-9.5) beat Toledo 24-16 last week.
Rockets outgained Kentucky, 329-305.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Wildcats have 170 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Calzada started 21 games at Texas A&M in 2021, then was at Auburn, I-AA Incarnate Word the last three years.
Kentucky is 7-3 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
In his career, Mark Stoops is 11-15-2 ATS as a home dog.
Last four years, Kentucky is 17-15 ATS in SEC games.
Last 4+ years, Wildcats are minus-23 in turnovers.
Ole Miss won seven of last 10 series games.
This is Rebels’ first visit to Lexington since 2020.
Kansas @ Missouri (-6)
Kansas (2-0)
Kansas beat Fresno State 31-7, whacked a I-AA team 46-7.
Jayhawks have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Kansas has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Daniels started 12 games last year.
In his career, Leipold is 13-21-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 7-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Kansas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 12-8-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last week, Big X teams were 5-2 ATS.
Missouri (1-0)
Mizzou drubbed a I-AA team 61-6 last week.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last 2 years, Junior QB Pribula was a backup QB at Penn State.
Mizzou was 6-2 ATS as a favorite last season.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 19-18-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 9-10-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, SEC teams were 5-5 ATS
These former rivals haven’t met since 2011.
Fresno State @ Oregon State (-3)
Fresno State (1-1)
Fresno split its first two games, despite a minus-5 turnover ratio.
FSU’s new coach won two I-AA national titles at North Dakota State.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Fresno has 50 starts returning on offensive line.
EJ Warner (Kurt’s son) is the new QB; he has 31 career starts (Temple/Rice)
Since 2017, Fresno is 12-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Fresno is 15-8-1 ATS in its last 24 games as an underdog.
Bulldogs are 13-10 ATS in their last 21 non-conference tilts.
Bulldogs ran ball for 37 yards vs Kansas, 351 vs Georgia Southern.
Last week, Mountain West teams were 8-4 ATS.
Oregon State (0-1)
Beavers (+1.5) lost 34-15 at home to Cal last week.
Golden Bears outgained OSU, 356-313
Oregon State has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Beavers have 44 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Murphy started 12 games at Duke.
OSU went 5-7 LY, after three straight winning years.
OSU was 1-3 ATS as a home favorite LY (12-2 from 2021-23)
Beavers aren’t in a league this year; they will be next year.
Beavers are 4-9 ATS last in their last 13 games.
Oregon State (even) won last meeting, 35-32 in 2022.
Western Kentucky @ Toledo (-7)
Western Kentucky (2-0)
WKU (-10.5) beat Sam Houston 41-24, beat I-AA team 55-6 LW.
Hilltoppers have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
WKU has 58 starts back on offensive line- lot of transfers.
Senior QB McIvor (20 starts) comes in with his OC from I-AA Abilene Christian.
In their opener, Hilltoppers threw for 406 yards against the Bearkats.
Since 2018, Hilltoppers are 17-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Helton, WKU is 17-11 as an underdog, 13-8 on road.
Last four years, WKU was 13-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Last week, C-USA teams were 2-2 ATS
Toledo (0-1)
Toledo (+9.5) lost 24-16 at Kentucky last week.
Rockets outgained Kentucky, 329-305
Toledo has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Rockets have 42 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gleason started 12 games LY.
Last three years, Toledo is 9-9 ATS as a home favorite.
In 9 years under coach Candle, Rockets are 38-42 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, Rockets are 6-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Last week, MAC teams were 6-4 ATS, all as underdogs.
Hilltoppers (+2.5) beat Toledo 24-21 at home last year.
Rockets outgained WKU, 325-207
Boston College @ Michigan State (-3)
Boston College (1-0)
BC beat a I-AA team 66-10 LW, throwing for 458 yards.
Eagles have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Eagles have 66 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Lonergan was a backup at Alabama LY.
Last 2 years, Boston College is 6-4 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, O’Brien is 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Eagles are 35-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, ACC teams are 4-10 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, ACC teams were 4-6 ATS
Michigan State (1-0)
Spartans (-22) beat Western Michigan 23-6 at home last week.
MSU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Spartans have 89 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Chiles started 12 games last year.
Last three years, Spartans were 5-7/4-8/5-7.
MSU is 0-5 ATS last five games as a home favorite.
In his career, coach Smith is 15-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Spartans are 9-4 ATS in last 13 non-league games.
Last week, Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Michigan vs Oklahoma (-6)
Michigan (1-0)
Michigan (-34) beat New Mexico 34-17 last week.
Wolverines have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Michigan has 77 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Underwood threw for 251 yards in his college debut.
Since 2020, Michigan is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Michigan was 3-3 ATS as an underdog in Moore’s first year as coach.
Last 3 years, Wolverines were 5-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Last week, Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS
Oklahoma (1-0)
Oklahoma beat a I-AA team 35-3 last week.
Sooners finished 6-7 two of the last three years.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Overall under Venables, Sooners are 14-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 9-4 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, SEC teams were 5-5 ATS.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
UCLA (-2.5) @ UNLV
UCLA (0-1)
UCLA (+5) lost 43-10 at home to Utah last week.
Utah outgained the Bruins, 492-220.
UCLA has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Bruins have 91 returning starts on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Soph QB Iamaleava started 14 games at Tennessee.
UCLA was 5-7 LY, after three straight winning seasons.
Since 2021, UCLA is 6-3 ATS as a road favorite.
UCLA was 0-2 ATS as a favorite last year.
Last 10+ years, Bruins are 10-21-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, Big 18 teams were 3-11 ATS.
UNLV (2-0)
UNLV beat a I-AA team 38-31, won 38-21 at Sam Houston.
UNLV has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
New coach Mullen is 105-61 in his college career.
Rebels have 37 starts returning on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Junior QB Colandrea started 11 games at Virginia LY.
Last week, Rebels outgained Sam Houston 404-332.
UNLV was 9-5/11-3 last 2 years, but most of those people are gone.
Last four years, UNLV is 17-9 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Mullen is 15-10 ATS as a home underdog.
Last week, Mountain West teams were 8-4 ATS.
These teams haven’t met since 2016.
San Diego State @ Washington State (-1.5)
San Diego State (1-0)
Aztecs blanked a I-AA team 42-0 last week.
San Diego State has 4 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Aztecs have 67 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB Denegal was a backup at Michigan for two years.
Aztecs went 4-8/3-9 the last two seasons.
Since 2021, San Diego State is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, coach Lewis is 12-17 ATS as a home favorite.
San Diego State is 5-9 ATS last 14 non-conference games.
Last week, Mountain West teams were 8-4 ATS.
Washington State (1-0)
Wazzu snuck past I-AA Idaho 13-10 last week.
Coogs were outgained 221-211, ran ball for only 3 yards.
Coogs have 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
QB Potter was 23-30/208 in his first college start.
Last three years, Wazzu is 8-6 ATS as a home favorite.
New coach Rogers was HC at I-AA South Dakota State.
Coogs have had winning seasons in 7 of last 10 years.
Since 2021, Wazzu is 14-10-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Coogs (+14.5) upset San Diego State 29-26 last year.
Aztecs outgained Wazzu, 414-371
That was teams’ first meeting since 2011.
Arizona State (-7) @ Mississippi State
Arizona State (1-0)
ASU beat a I-AA team 38-19 last week.
ASU has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Sun Devils have 76 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Leavitt had 2,885 PY LY, with 24 TD’s, 6 INTs.
Sun Devils were 11-3 LY, after 3-9/3-9 seasons.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 7-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Dillingham, Sun Devils are 4-3 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, Big X teams were 5-2 ATS.
Mississippi State (1-0)
Miss State (-14) won 34-17 at Southern Miss last week.
Bulldogs outgained USM, 465-301
Bulldogs have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bulldogs have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen has 27 career starts.
Since 2019, MSU is 2-13-1 ATS as a home underdog.
MSU was 5-5 ATS as a dog last year, Lebby’s first year as HC.
Bulldogs are 8-4-1 ATS in last 15 games non-league games.
Last week, SEC teams were 5-5 ATS, 1-1 as an underdog.
Arizona State (-5.5) beat the Bulldogs 30-23 last year.
ASU ran ball for 346 yards, outgained Miss State, 415-292
