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[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Friday, October 17

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Friday’s games
Louisville @ Miami (-12.5)
Louisville (4-1, 1-1)
Louisville is 1-1 in ACC: W34-27 @ Pitt, L30-27 @ Virginia
Cardinals ran for 53-54 yards in those two games.
Cardinals have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Louisville has 203 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Moss started 10 games at USC


Last three weeks, Louisville threw for 327 yards/game.
Since 2018, Louisville is 5-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Brohm, Cardinals are 1-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Brohm is 16-11-1 as a road underdog.
Under Brohm, Cardinals are 8-11 ATS in ACC games.
Under Brohm, Louisville is 2-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.


Miami FL (4-0, 1-0)
Miami won ACC opener, beat Florida State 28-22.
Hurricanes are +6 in turnovers this season.
Miami has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hurricanes have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Beck started 13 games for Georgia last year.


Under Cristobal, Miami is 10-16 ATS as a favorite.
Miami is 6-2 ATS in last 8 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 20-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 8-17 ATS in ACC games.
Miami is 10-19 ATS last 29 games coming off a win.


Miami won three of last four series games.
Teams split last two meetings played here.
Last four meetings went over the total.
ACC home favorites are 6-7 ATS in conference games.

North Carolina @ California (-8.5)
North Carolina (2-3, 0-1)
North Carolina’s three losses are by 34-25-28 points.
UNC’s only I-A win was 20-3 at Charlotte.
Tar Heels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tar Heels have 155 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Johnson has started games at LSU/Texas A&M.


Since 2022, Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Tar Heels are 13-21 ATS in last 34 conference games.
UNC gave up 399 passing yards in last game, vs Clemson.
Last two games, UNC ran ball for only 63-57 yards.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.


California (4-2, 1-1)
Cal is 1-1 in ACC: W28-24 @ BC, L21-45 vs Duke.
Cal was held under 70 rushing yards in three of last four games.
Golden Bears have 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Golden Bears have 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Sagapolutele has thrown 9 TD’s, 7 INTs.


Under Wilcox, Golden Bears are 16-24-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Wilcox, Cal is 10-17-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 2+ years, Cal is 8-11 ATS in conference games.
Last three games, California is minus-6 in turnovers.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.

These teams haven’t met since 2018.
ACC home favorites are 6-7 ATS in conference games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday, October 17​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
LOU at MIA	07:00 PM	LOU +11.5 U 49.5	+500 +500
NEB at MINN	08:00 PM	NEB -7.0 U 47.5	+500 +500
SJSU at USU	09:00 PM	USU -4.0 O 61.5	+500 +500
UNC at CAL	10:30 PM	CAL -9.0 O 47.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/17/2025....................4 - 2 - 0........................66.66%.................+ 9.00
10/16/2025....................1 - 1 - 0........................50.00%.................- 0.50
10/15/2025....................3 - 1 - 0........................75.00%..................+ 9.50
10/11/2025....................3 - 7 - 0........................30.00%.................- 23.50
10/10/2025....................5 - 1 - 0........................83.31%................+ 19.50
10/09/2025....................2 - 3 - 1........................40.00%.................- 6.50
10/08/2025....................2 - 1 - 1........................66.66%.................+ 4.50
10/04/2025................14 - 11 - 1.......................56.00%.................+ 9.50
10/03/2025.....................1 - 5 - 0.......................16.66%.................- 22.50
10/02/2025.....................1 - 1 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS........................35 - 33 - 3.......................51.47%..................- 1.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six highest-paid major leaguers in 1985, 40 years ago:
$2,130,000— Mike Schmidt, Phil
$2,090,000— Jim Rice, Bos
$1,950,000— George Foster, Mets
$1,745,000— Dave Winfield, NYY
$1,728,000— Gary Carter, Mets
$1,600,000— Dale Murphy, Atl

Quote of the Day
“We still have home-field advantage. All we can do is enjoy the flight back to Toronto, enjoy our beds at our homes and our families, and we’re going to get after it on Sunday. … We’ll get after it on Sunday. We’ll be ready to play.”
Blue Jays manager John Schneider

Saturday’s quiz
Which bowl game is played in El Paso, TX every December?

Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.

Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.

**********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday…….​

— Mariners 6, Blue Jays 2
Eugenio Suarez hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th
Cal Raleigh also homered in 8th to tie game, 2-2.
Mariners took their starting P out after only 56 PT
Seattle leads series, 3-2; Game 6 is in Toronto Sunday.

— Dodgers 5, Brewers 1
Ohtani threw six shutout IP, also hit three home runs.
Milwaukee had five hits, was 0-8 with RISP.
Dodgers sweep Milwaukee 4-0; Brewers scored one run in every game.

— Bengals 33, Steelers 31
Bengals drove 52 yards, kicked 36-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win.
Flacco threw for 342 yards, three TD’s
WR Chase had 23 targets; he caught 16 passes for 161 yards.
Bengals were 7-14 on third down, Pittsburgh 7-10.
Bengals’ first two drives: 13 plays, 53 yards, two punts.
Bengals rest of game: 63 plays, 416 yards, 33 points.
Steelers led 10-0 early in second quarter.
Pittsburgh has allowed 369+ yards in five of six games.

— Louisville 24, Miami 21
Louisville had four INT’s, was +3 in turnovers.
Louisville led 14-10 at halftime.
Miami ran the ball 24 times for only 63 yards.
Cardinals were a 10.5-point underdog.

— Minnesota 24, Nebraska 6
Minnesota outscored Nebraska 17-0 in second half.
Gophers sacked Nebraska’s QB nine times.
Gophers outgained the Cornhuskers, 339-213.
Both teams are 5-2.

— Utah State 30, San Jose State 25
Utah State kicked 44-yard FG with 1:58 left for the win.
Aggies threw a 74-yard TD pass in 3rd quarter; they led 17-9.
San Jose State outgained the Agues, 534-461.
Spartans were 9-17 on third down, Utah State 5-15

— Famous birthdays, October 18th:
Mike Ditka, 86
George Hendrick, 76
Pam Dawber, 74
Alex Cora, 50
Yoenis Cespedes, 40
Zac Efron, 38
Osvaldo Bido, 30
Terance Mann, 29

— Most starting pitchers used, last two years:
31- White Sox, Marlins
27- Dodgers, Brewers
24- Angels, Mets, Giants
23- Braves, Red Sox

— Fewest starting pitchers used, last two years:
10- Mariners
12- Cardinals
14- Bronx, Nationals
16- Rockies, Royals, Phillies

— Dodgers-Brewers, Blue Jays-Mariners. This year’s Final Four
Only one player ever has played for all four of those teams: Henry Blanco, who played 16 years in the big leagues, for 11 different teams.

— Dolphins-Browns Sunday will have two lefty QB’s starting, first time that has happened in the NFL since 2006, an Atlanta-Tampa Bay game (Vick-Chris Simms)
By the way, this game could have winds as high as 60 MPH, with a 94% chance of rain.

— Since 2016, there have been 16 college football teams that started a season 0-6 ATS; those teams went 5-10-1 ATS in their 7th game. Penn State fits that bill this week.
Since 2020, there have been eight teams that started a season 6-0 ATS; those teams went 2-6 ATS in their 7th game. Memphis, Texas Tech fit the bill this week.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 8

FCS

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Saturday, October 18

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Saturday’s games
LSU @ Vanderbilt (-2.5)
LSU (5-1, 2-1)
LSU is 1-1 on road: W17-10 Clemson/L19-24 Ole Miss.
LSU allowed 10 or fewer points in all five wins.
LSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
LSU has 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards LY (29 TD’s, 12 INTs)


Under Kelly, LSU is 2-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Kelly is 22-14-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Kelly, LSU is 13-14-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Kelly, LSU is 15-13-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 5-0 in their I-A games.


Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1)
Vandy is 1-1 in SEC (W31-7 @ South Carolina/L14-30 @ Alabama).
Commodores’ six games were all decided by 16+ points.
Commodores have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 139 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Senior QB Pavia has started 36 college games


Vandy is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a favorite.
Under Lea, Vandy is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Lea, Vandy is 17-17 ATS in SEC games (7-3 last ten)
Vandy is 5-1 ATS in last six games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-2 in Vandy’s I-A games.


LSU is 8-0 SU/4-3-1 ATS in last eight meetings.
Tigers won/covered last four visits to Nashville.
Under is 6-1 in last seven series games.
SEC home favorites are 10-6 ATS in conference games.


Georgia Tech @ Duke (-1.5)
Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0)
Tech won road games: 27-20 @ Colorado, 30-29 @ Wake Forest.
Yellow Jackets have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Yellow Jackets have 103 returning starts on OL, but lot of transfers.
Senior QB King has 26 career starts.


Tech allowed 20+ points in all five I-A games.
Tech is 6-0 despite a minus-3 turnover ratio.
Tech is 9-4 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Under Key, Yellow Jackets are 13-5 ATS as an underdog.
Under Key, Yellow Jackets are 16-10 ATS in ACC games.


Duke (4-2, 3-0)
Duke is 3-0 in ACC games, scoring 45-38-45 points.
Blue Devils were +11 in turnovers in those games.
Duke has gained 418+ total yards in all six games.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.


QB Mensah started 13 games at Tulane.
Duke is 11-5 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2022, Duke is 18-9 ATS in ACC games.
Duke is 18-12 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games.


Georgia Tech won last four series games.
Tech lost three of last four visits to Duke.
Under is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.
ACC home favorites are 6-7 ATS in conference games.


Baylor @ TCU (-2.5)
Baylor (4-2, 2-1)
Baylor is 2-0 on road: 48-45 @ SMU/45-27 @ Oklahoma State
Baylor scored 35+ points in wins, 24-24 in losses.
Bears have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Robertson had 3,071 PY (28 TD’s, 8 INTs) LY.


Under Aranda, Baylor is 11-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 23-25-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 17-14-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Baylor gained 443+ TY in four of five I-A games.
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games.


TCU (4-2, 1-2)
TCU scored 35+ points in its wins; 24-28 in losses, both on road.
Last 3 games, Horned Frogs were held to 58.7 rushing yards/game.
TCU has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Hoover started 19 games the last two years.


Under Dykes, TCU is 11-8 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 32-25 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Dykes, Frogs are 16-12-3 ATS in Big X games.
In their I-A games, TCU scored 34 ppg.
Three of last four TCU games stayed under the total.


TCU won eight of last ten meetings.
Baylor is 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS last five visits to TCU
Over is 9-4-1 in last 14 series games.
Big X home favorites are 12-6 ATS in conference games.

Oklahoma (-5.5) @ South Carolina
Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1)
Oklahoma ran ball for 32-48 yards in its two SEC (1-1) games.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year- he is banged up (check status).


Under Venables, Oklahoma is 17-13-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Sooners are 5-1 despite being minus-7 in turnovers.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 11-16-1 ATS in conference games.
Under is 5-0 in Oklahoma’s I-A games.


South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Gamecocks scored 24-35 in I-A wins, 7-20-10 in losses.
Last three games, Carolina is +6 in turnovers.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Gamecocks have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Sellers started 12 games last year.


Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 6-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 20-16 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 15-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 19-12 ATS in home games.
Last 2 games, Gamecocks threw for only 163/124 yards.


South Carolina (pick ‘em) won 35-9 at Oklahoma LY.
SEC home underdogs are 4-2 ATS in conference games.


Texas A&M (-7.5) @ Arkansas
Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0)
Aggies are 2-0 in SEC: 16-10 Auburn, 31-9 Miss State, 34-17 Florida.
Aggies ran ball for 207-299-183 yards in their SEC games.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.


A&M won only road game, 41-40 @ Notre Dame.
Under Elko, A&M is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Elko is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Aggies are 9-12-3 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win
A&M is 10-14-3 ATS in last 27 SEC games.
In his career, Elko is 15-12 ATS in conference games.


Arkansas (2-2)
Arkansas lost its last four games, giving up 40.8 ppg
Last 4 games, Hogs are minus-7 in turnovers.
Last 3 games, Arkansas gave up 254.3 rushing yards/game.
Razorbacks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Razorbacks have 101 returning starts on the offensive line;


Senior QB Green has started 35 college games.
Arkansas is 20-13 ATS last 33 games as an underdog.
Razorbacks are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home dog.
Hogs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Arkansas’ last five games.


A&M won 12 of last 13 series games.
Arkansas is 5-1-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
SEC home underdogs are 4-2 ATS in conference games.


Ole Miss @ Georgia (-7.5)
Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0)
Ole Miss won only road game, 30-23 at Kentucky.
Four of their last five wins were by 7 or fewer points.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Chambliss is 85-130/1,286 passing this season.


Under Kiffin, Rebels are 7-7 ATS as an underdog.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 2-5 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Kiffin is 14-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 19-23-2 ATS in SEC games.
Rebels’ last three games stayed under the total.


Georgia (5-1, 3-1)
Georgia held last two opponents to 270-277 yards.
Dawgs’ only loss was 24-21 at home to Alabama.
Dawgs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Georgia has 35 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Stockton has three career starts.


Georgia is 4-11-1 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
Last 2+ years, Georgia is 9-13 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Smart is 19-32-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Smart is 47-39 ATS in SEC games.
Dawgs are 6-18-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.


Georgia won 11 of last 13 meetings (1-2 last three)
Rebels are 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS last six visits between the hedges.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
SEC home favorites are 10-6 ATS in conference games.


UNLV @ Boise State (-12.5)
UNLV (6-0, 2-0)
UNLV has scored 30+ points in every game this year.
UNLV has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
New coach Mullen is 109-61 in his college career.
Rebels have 37 starts returning on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Junior QB Colandrea started 11 games at Virginia LY.


Rebels are 12-4 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Mullen is 13-15 ATS as a road underdog.
UNLV is 21-9 ATS last 30 games coming off a win.
In his career, Mullen is 58-49-2 ATS in conference games.
Last three games, Rebels allowed 38-17-48 points.


Boise State (4-2, 2-0)
Broncos were held to 7 points in both losses (USF/Notre Dame)
Boise was minus-7 in turnovers in those games.
Boise has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Broncos have 99 starts returning on the offensive line.
LY, Junior QB Madsen threw for 3,018 yards, with 23 TD’s, 6 INTs


Boise scored 49-47-41 points in its I-A wins.
Boise State is 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Broncos are 18-8-1 ATS in last 27 conference games.
Under Danielson, 10-4-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.


Boise State won last eight series games.
Boise is 2-3 ATS in series games when laying double digits.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Mountain West home favorites are 3-4 ATS in conference games.


Tennessee @ Alabama (-8.5)
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)
Vols scored 31+ points in all six games.
Vols allowed 31+ points in three of last four games.
Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Vols have 46 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Aguilar started 24 games at Appalachian State.


Vols won only road game, 41-34 at Miss State.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 4-10 ATS as an underdog.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 1-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Heupel, Vols are 19-20 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 15-20 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games.


Alabama (5-1, 3-0)
Alabama won first three SEC games, by 3-16-3 points.
Alabama is +10 in turnovers this season.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.


Under DeBoer, Alabama is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, DeBoer is 18-12-1 as a home favorite.
Crimson Tide is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 SEC games.
Alabama gave up 230-227 rushing yards vs Florida St/Georgia
Last three Alabama games stayed under the total.


Alabama won 16 of last 18 series games.
Vols are 0-10 SU/4-6 ATS last 10 visits to Tuscaloosa.
Over is 9-4 in last 13 meetings.
SEC home favorites are 10-6 ATS in conference games.


USC @ Notre Dame (-9.5)
USC (5-1)
Trojans has scored 31+ points in every game this season.
Trojans are 1-1 on road: W33-17 Purdue/L32-34 Illinois
USC has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Trojans have 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Maiava started 15 games the last two years.


Under Riley, USC is 2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Riley is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Riley, USC is 12-16 ATS in games coming off a win.
In his career, Riley is 7-3 ATS as an underdog
Four of their six games went over the total.


Notre Dame (4-2)
Notre Dame won its last four games, all by 21+ points.l
Notre Dame’s two losses were by total of four points.
Notre Dame allowed 389+ yards in their last five games.
Irish have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Notre Dame has 54 returning starts on offensive line.


Frosh QB Carr is grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr.
Last 2+ years, Notre Dame is 17-9-1 ATS in all games.
Under Freeman, ND is 11-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Notre Dame ran for 200+ yards in three of last four games.
Four of six Notre Dame games went over the total.


Notre Dame won six of last seven series games.
USC is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS last six visits to South Bend.
Last three meetings went over the total.


Missouri (-1.5) @ Auburn
Missouri (5-1, 1-1)
October 18, this is Mizzou’s first road game.
Tigers are 1-1 in SEC: W29-20 So Carolina/L24-27 Alabama
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last 2 years, Junior QB Pribula was a backup QB at Penn State.


Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 7-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 24-19-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 11-9 in games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-2 in Mizzou’s I-A games.


Auburn (3-3, 0-3)
Auburn lost its last three games, scoring 17-10-10 points.
Tigers scored 38-42-31 points in their wins.
Auburn has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Arnold started 10 games for Oklahoma.


Tigers were held to 287-177-277 yards in their losses.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 12-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 9-10 ATS in conference games.
Auburn is 12-15 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-1 in Auburn’s games.


Auburn won three of last four series games.
Mizzou (+7) lost 17-14 at Auburn in 2022.
SEC home underdogs are 4-2 ATS in conference games.


Utah (-3.5) @ BYU
Utah (5-1, 2-1)
Utah’s six games were all decided by 24+ points.
Utes scored 31+ points in its wins.
Utes have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Utah has 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Dampier started 12 games at New Mexico.


This year, Utah is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite.
From 2021-24, Utes were 3-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Utah is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Since 2016, Utes are 52-32 ATS in conference games.
Utah ran ball for 242+ yards in four of five I-A games.


BYU (6-0, 3-0)
BYU scored 24-38-33 points in its Big X wins.
BYU has scored 31.2 ppg in its I-A games.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Broncos have 61 starts returning on the offensive line.
QB Bachmeier is 91-144/1,220 passing (8 TD’s, 3 INTs)


In its Big X games, BYU allowed 21-24-27 points.
BYU is 6-1 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
BYU is 11-12 ATS in its 2+ years of conference play.
BYU is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 3-2 in BYU’s I-A games this year.


BYU won last two series games, 22-21/26-17.
Utah won four of last five visits to Provo.
Under is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.
Big X home underdogs are 2-5 ATS in conference games.

 

[Cnotes53]

YOUR FIRST SET OF EARLY GAMES....MORE LATER
******.....BEST BETS

Saturday, October 18​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
GT at DUKE	12:00 PM	DUKE -3.0***** O 60.0	+500 +500
LSU at VAN	12:00 PM	VAN -1.5*****	+500
CONN at BC	12:00 PM	CONN +1.0*****	+500
ARIZ at HOU	12:00 PM	ARIZ -1.0	+500
WASH at MICH	12:00 PM	MICH -4.5 U 51.0	+500 +500
ARMY at TULN	12:00 PM	TULN -9.5***** O 45.0*****	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

UTSA at UNT	03:30 PM	UNT -4.0*****	+500
MSU at IU	03:30 PM	IU -27.5	+500
TAM at ARK	03:30 PM	TAM -7.5*****	+500
ODU at JMU	03:30 PM	ODU +2.5*****	+500
UNLV at BSU	03:30 PM	UNLV +13.0***** U 60.5	+500 +500
NIU at OHIO	03:30 PM	OHIO -10.5*****	+500
TTU at ASU	04:00 PM	ASU +7.0	+500
MSST at FLA	04:15 PM	FLA -9.5	+500
WSU at UVA	06:30 PM	UVA -17.5*****	+500
MD at UCLA	07:00 PM	UCLA -3.0	+500
HAW at CSU	07:00 PM	HAW +2.5*****	+500
PSU at IOWA	07:00 PM	IOWA -3.0	+500
PITT at SYR	07:30 PM	SYR +9.5	+500
USC at ND	07:30 PM	USC +10.0*****	+500
UTAH at BYU	08:00 PM	BYU +3.5*****	+500

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/18/2025....................6 - 7 - 1........................46.15%.................- 8.50
10/17/2025....................4 - 2 - 0........................66.66%.................+ 9.00
10/16/2025....................1 - 1 - 0........................50.00%.................- 0.50
10/15/2025....................3 - 1 - 0........................75.00%..................+ 9.50
10/11/2025....................3 - 7 - 0........................30.00%.................- 23.50
10/10/2025....................5 - 1 - 0........................83.31%................+ 19.50
10/09/2025....................2 - 3 - 1........................40.00%.................- 6.50
10/08/2025....................2 - 1 - 1........................66.66%.................+ 4.50
10/04/2025................14 - 11 - 1.......................56.00%.................+ 9.50
10/03/2025.....................1 - 5 - 0.......................16.66%.................- 22.50
10/02/2025.....................1 - 1 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS........................41 - 40 - 4.......................50.61%..................- 10.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 9-pack:
Highest-paid players in the NBA this year:
$59,606,817— Steph Curry, GSt
$55,224,526— Joel Embiid, Phil
$55,224,526— Nikola Jokic, Den
$54,708,609— Kevin Durant, Hst
$54,126,450— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
$54,126,450— Luka Doncic, LAL
$54,126,450— Jimmy Butler, GSt
$54,126,450— Anthony Davis, Dal
$54,126,450— Jayson Tatum, Bos

Quote of the Day
“We wanted to play with fanatical effort, and the second thing was poise. The third thing was we talked about staying together, no matter what.”
UAB interim football coach Alex Mortensen, who led the Blazers to an upset win over Memphis Saturday. Alex is the son of the late Chris Mortensen, the great reporter on ESPN.

Sunday’s quiz
Who was QB for the Vikings, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Saturday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl is played in El Paso, TX every December.

Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.

*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……​

— Vanderbilt 31, LSU 24
Commodores are 6-1 for the first time since 1950.
Vandy ran ball 45 times for 239 yards (5.3 yards/carry)
Commodores snapped a 10-game losing skid vs LSU.

— Georgia 43, Ole Miss 35
QB Stockton threw for 289 yards, four TD’s.
Georgia outscored the Rebels 17-0 in fourth quarter.
Dawgs ran 80 plays for 510 yards, had 34 first downs.

— Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Sun Devils drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:34 left.
First loss of year for Tech, who played without starting QB Morton.
WR Tyson caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a TD for ASU.

— UCLA 20, Maryland 17
Bruins kicked a 23-yard FG with 0:02 left for the comeback win.
Maryland had tied the game on a TD with 0:40 left.
UCLA is 3-0 since they fired their coach after an 0-4 start.

— Missouri 23, Auburn 17 OT
Mizzou led 10-7 at halftime.
Auburn RB Cobb ran ball 19 times for 111 yards.
Auburn is 0-4 in SEC, scoring 17-10-10-17 points.

— Upsets of the Week:
UAB (+20.5) 31, Memphis 24
Coastal Carolina (+10.5) 45, Appalachian State 37
Louisville (+10.5) 24, Miami 21
Arizona State (+9.5) 26, Texas Tech 22
Florida International (+9.5) 25, Western Kentucky 6
Minnesota (+8.5) 24, Nebraska 6
Arkansas State (+8.5) 15, South Alabama 14
SMU (+5.5) 35, Clemson 24
— Indiana 38, Michigan State 13

Five highest-paid coaches in college football:
$13M/year- Kirby Smart, Georgia
$12.5M- Ryan Day, Ohio State
$11.6M- Curt Cignetti, Indiana
$11.5M- Lincoln Riley, USC
$11.3M- Dabo Swinney, Clemson

— UAB 31, Memphis 24
Blazers fired their coach this week, then pulled biggest upset of the day.
UAB had good balance; ran ball for 219 yards, threw it for 251.
Blazers covered 9-13 third down plays, 6-1 Memphis 5-11.

— Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18
Tech had a 95-yard fumble return for TD in first quarter.
Game was tied 10-10 after the third quarter.
Tech was outgained 441-376; they’re quietest 7-0 team in country.

— California 21, North Carolina 18
TE on North Carolina fumbled on 1-yard line with 3:48 left.
Tar Heels are 1-4 vs I-A teams; the win was over 1-6 Charlotte.
Cal barely won, despite being +3 in turnovers.

— Famous birthdays, October 19th:
John Lithgow, 80
Lynn Dickey, 76
Lionel Hollins, 72
David Palmer, 68
Brad Daugherty, 60
Keith Foulke, 53
Leonard Little, 51
Michael Young, 49
Rajai Davis, 45
JA Happ, 43
Anthony Santander, 31
Zack Gelof, 26

— Houston 31, Arizona 28
Houston kicked a 41-yard FG at the gun, improved to 6-1.
Cougars ran ball 45 times for 232 yards.
Arizona was first team to score TD Saturday; they were 50-1 to do that at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas.

— Marshall 40, Texas State 37 OT
Bobcats lost in overtime for the second week in a row.
Texas State QB Jackson threw for 44 yards, 2 TD’s in a losing cause.
Bobcats turned ball over three times, had 12 penalties for 80 yards.

— Tulane 24, Army 17
6-1 Green Wave scored two TD’s in last 1:54 for the comeback win.
Total yardage: Tulane 402, Army 358
Army ran ball 63 times for 233 yards.

— Alabama 37, Tennessee 20
Vols QB Aguilar threw a 99-yard pick-6 on last play of first half.
If Tennessee had kicked FG there, they would’ve trailed 16-10 at the half.
Vols outgained Alabama 409-373, but had 10 penalties for 67 yards.

— Texas 16, Kentucky 13 OT
Longhorns led 7-0 at halftime.
Kentucky kicked a 45-yard FG with 0:09 left to force OT.
In OT, Wildcats went for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, but failed.

 

[Cnotes53]

AP Top 25 gets an overhaul behind No. 1 Ohio State; Vandy is a top-10 team for 1st time since 1947​

LSU Vanderbilt Football​

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, right, celebrates the team's win with teammates after an NCAA college football game against LSU, Saturday,

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Vanderbilt is a top-10 team in college football for the first time since 1947 in an Associated Press poll that got a nearly complete makeover Sunday after a weekend when nine Top 25 teams lost.

Ohio State was the only team to hold its spot, remaining No. 1 for an eighth straight week after shutting out Wisconsin 34-0 on the road.
Beyond the Buckeyes, significant revision was required with four top-10 teams losing in the same week for a third time this season. Nine Top 25 losing teams were the most since Week 5 in 2022, when 10 went down, according to Sportradar. Four of the losses this week were to unranked opponents.

The Buckeyes received 60 first-place votes, 10 more than a week ago. No. 2 Indiana pulled away from Michigan State, improved its program-record ranking by one spot and got the other six first-place votes.

Texas A&M's one-rung promotion to No. 3 gives the Aggies their highest ranking since 1995. No. 4 Alabama has its highest ranking of the season and No. 5 Georgia returned to the top five after a three-week absence.

Oregon, Georgia Tech, Mississippi, Miami and Vanderbilt round out the top 10.

The Ducks bounced back from their home loss to Indiana with a lopsided road win over Rutgers.

Georgia Tech, which won at Duke, hadn't been in the top 10 since 2014 or ranked as high since 2009. Mississippi's loss to Georgia caused it to slip three spots, and Miami fell seven after losing to unranked Louisville.

Vanderbilt rallied from its loss at Alabama two weeks ago with a 31-24 win over then-No. 10 LSU. The Commodores earned a seven-spot promotion for their first win over the Tigers since 1990. At 6-1, Vandy is off to its best start since 1950 with two wins over ranked opponents.

Texas Tech's first loss came at Arizona State and dropped the Red Raiders seven spots to No. 14.

LSU took the biggest fall, plunging 10 spots to No. 20 for its lowest ranking of the season.
In and out

— No. 19 Louisville makes its season debut in the Top 25. The Cardinals, whose only loss was by three points to Virginia on Oct. 4, were 0-18 all-time against top 10 teams in true road games before knocking off the Hurricanes.

— No. 23 Illinois returned despite being idle. The Illini had dropped out for the first time this season after a home loss to Ohio State.

— No. 24 Arizona State, which fell out of the poll after a 32-point loss at Utah, returned following its first win over a top-10 opponent since 2019.

— No. 25 Michigan's 17-point home win over Washington returned the Wolverines to the rankings after a one-week absence.

— Southern California (20), Memphis (22), Utah (23) and Nebraska (25) dropped out.

Poll points
— Ohio State's 10 straight appearances in the top five is the longest active streak.

— Georgia's 140th consecutive week in the poll is the second-longest active streak to Alabama’s 287.

— Vanderbilt's top-10 ranking is its fifth in program history. The others were in 1937 (1), 1941 (1) and 1947 (2).

— No. 16 Virginia's ranking is its highest since 2007.

Conference call
SEC (10) — Nos. 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 20, 22.

Big Ten (5) — Nos. 1, 2, 6, 23, 25.

Big 12 (4) — Nos. 11, 14, 21, 24.

ACC (4) — Nos. 7, 9, 16, 19.

American (1) — No. 18.

Independent (1) — No. 12.

Ranked vs. ranked
— No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0) at No. 20 LSU (5-2): The home team has won the last eight meetings. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier threw three second-half interceptions and Marcel Reed came off the bench to run for three TDs in Aggies' 38-23 win last year.

— No. 8 Mississippi (6-1) at No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1): Only their third all-time meeting. Rebels recorded nine sacks in 26-14 win last year.

— No. 15 Missouri (6-1) at No. 10 Vanderbilt (6-1): Vandy kicker Brock Taylor has made 17 consecutive field goals since missing 31-yarder that gave the Tigers a 30-27 double-overtime win last year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Florida fires Billy Napier: Gators part with fourth-year coach amid disappointing 3-4 start to 2025 season​

Florida will seek to hire its fourth football coach in 11 years​

Florida has fired coach Billy Napier after a 3-4 start to the 2025 season, sources tell CBS Sports, ending a 22-23 tenure that never truly got out of neutral despite high hopes entering his fourth year with the program. The 46-year-old Napier has been on a near perpetual hot seat over the last couple years with only last season's win streak offering a brief reprieve.

The Gators have five games remaining on the schedule, including rivalry showdowns with Georgia, Tennessee and Florida State. Napier finishes with a winning percentage of .489 -- the worst by a Florida coach since 1949.

Wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales will be Florida's interim coach.

"Today I met with Coach Napier and informed him that a change in leadership of our football program would best serve the interests of the University of Florida," Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin said in a statement.

"On behalf of Gator Nation, I want to sincerely thank Billy and his family for their tireless commitment to the Florida Gators. Billy built a tremendous culture of accountability and growth among the young men he led each day. His organized and detailed approach had a meaningful impact across all levels of our program.

As Coach Napier has often said, this is a results-driven business, and while his influence was positive, it ultimately did not translate into the level of success we expect on the field."

Napier's buyout is $19.38 million, 50% of which must be paid out within the next 30 days. He had made $7.4 million annually as part of the original contract he signed with the program in November 2021.

The Gators decided to move on from Napier a day after Florida won 23-21 over Mississippi State, a game during which Napier was serenaded by "Fire Billy!" chants. Florida intercepted Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen in its own territory -- Mississippi State was already in field goal range and could have kicked a 46-yarder to win -- with less than 30 seconds remaining to seal the win. All indications are Napier's fate and the timing of the firing were determined ahead of the game result.

Napier entered the 2024 season with a seat that was lukewarm, at best, but it immediately heated up when the Gators were blown out at home in Week 1 by Miami and played poor offensively two weeks later at home against Texas A&M. Florida began to show promise throughout the rest of the season, however, when ballyhooed freshman QB DJ Lagway was pressed into starting duty in wake of an injury to Graham Mertz. Florida was competitive against Tennessee and Georgia before ending College Football Playoff hopes for LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive upsets.

Florida won its final four games of the season, finishing with an 8-5 record, and optimism was high heading into 2025 where UF started the season ranked in the top 15 with eyes on being a darkhorse CFP contender. However, it became apparent early in the season that would not be the case following a Week 2 loss to South Florida as an 18-point favorite at home. Lagway's development stalled in part due to injuries that forced him to spend spring practice unable to throw and a wide receiver room that lacked chemistry due to its own injury-plagued fall camp.

More questions piled up about the offense as Napier refused to relinquish his role as playcaller. His game management continued to be called into question, as was Florida's lacking discipline, highlighted during the USF loss in which Brendon Bett was suspended for spitting on a Bulls player three days after the sports world watched the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Carter do the same in the NFL's season opener. These problems permeated throughout Napier's four seasons despite the coach's insistence that they were correctable

Notable records for Billy Napier as Florida coach​

Opponent	Record
vs. SEC	12-16 (.429)
vs. FBS	18-23 (.439)
vs. Power Four	15-22 (.405)
vs. Florida State	1-2 (.333)
vs. Miami (FL)	0-2 (.000)

Fresh off a five-year extension, athletic director Scott Stricklin will now oversee the hire of his third football coach while in charge, a somewhat surprising feat for an SEC athletic director. It will be Florida's fourth coach in 11 years and fifth since Urban Meyer stepped down following the 2010 season. The Gators are still attempting to reclaim the glory of the Meyer and Steve Spurrier eras in Gainesville that produced national championships and Heisman Trophy winners.

"Making this decision during the open date provides our team valuable time to regroup, refocus, and prepare for the challenges ahead," Stricklin added. "The timing also allows us to conduct a thoughtful, thorough, and well-informed search for our next head coach. We remain fully committed to utilizing every resource available to identify the right leader to guide Gators Football into the future.

I will conduct the search with a high degree of confidentiality to protect the privacy of those involved. The search will focus on the hiring of an elite football coach who will embody the standard we have at the University of Florida, and we will continue to provide all of the necessary resources for that coach, his staff and the players to be successful."

Who will Florida hire next?​

The object of most Gators' fans desire is Lane Kiffin, the Ole Miss head coach.

Under Kiffin's leadership, Ole Miss is currently enjoying one of the more successful runs in program history. The Rebels have won 10+ games in three of the last four seasons, and Kiffin continues to show an ability to adapt to the changing environment of college football. Gauging actual interest -- on either side -- will come with time, but Kiffin's got the chops, the track record and SEC experience to be a perfectly sensible hire for the Gators.

Other candidates Florida is likely to consider include James Franklin and Jedd Fisch.

 

[Cnotes53]

What's next for Billy Napier after Florida firing? Journey back to head coach position could be steep climb​

Napier will have options on the table, but being back in the top spot for another program could take some time​

The will they, won't they, some 15-month saga of whether Florida will fire Billy Napier is finally over.

Despite a 23-21 win over Mississippi State on Saturday, the Gators fired Napier on Sunday as the team entered its open week. Napier ended his tenure at 22-23 overall, which is the worst record through 20 games of any Florida coach since 1950.

Napier leaves a talented roster behind in Gainesville -- 12th in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite -- for whomever comes next.

As for Napier's next steps, his outlook is much more in question.

Napier's immediate future is pretty good. He's owed 50% of his near $20 million buyout within 30 days of his firing. Nothing like a near eight-figure payday ahead of Christmas shopping season.

His long-term future? We'll see.

Napier will have options in coaching; however, it seems more unlikely than not talking to industry sources that teams will look to him as a head coach this cycle. He was given almost every resource at Florida to build, including an army of off-field staffers and a hefty name, image and likeness war chest. Yet the best Napier fared in any single season in Gainesville was 8-5.

There were positive moments for Napier, including the work the program did to rebuild the foundation of the roster with good high school classes and evaluations. Napier is also widely considered a nice man and is very well-liked around Gainesville and the college coaching ranks. You can also argue a historically difficult schedule the last two seasons for Florida did Napier no favors as his program attempted to ascend.

But Napier had his obvious problems, too.

Florida coaching candidates: Lane Kiffin, James Franklin among options on hot board to replace Billy Napier
Chip Patterson


Those in the industry criticize his unwillingness to let go of play-calling duties and hire a full-time offensive coordinator. Florida wanted to build through the high school ranks, but that meant taking a more cautious approach in the transfer portal than most modern contenders. Throw in game-management issues and many missed opportunities in winnable games, and Napier lost the trust of the Florida fan base a long time ago.

In fairness to Napier's head coaching acumen, his run with Louisiana from 2018 to 2021 was incredibly successful.

He took over a program that won a combined 15 games in the three years prior to him getting the job. He went 7-7 in Year 1 before rattling off a 34-5 record over the next three seasons.

Napier showed the ability to build on the Group of Five level. It just didn't translate to the SEC.

Back to the question of what's next for Napier, he'll have three options:

1. Attempt to find another head coaching job.

2. Take a coordinator or high-level assistant job at a power program.

3. Take the year off or hang out as an analyst somewhere for a year to reset.

Could a Group of Five team be intrigued enough by Napier this year to give him a shot? Of course. But it seems less likely during a year in which not many G-5 jobs are expected to open. Though, if a job like Coastal Carolina comes up it could tempt him.

Just look at what happened to Dan Mullen and Jim McElwain in their post-Florida life.

McElwain spent a year as Michigan's wide receivers coach before taking the Central Michigan job. Mullen took several years off and worked at ESPN as an analyst before returning to coaching this offseason at UNLV.

Of note with Napier, his contract does not include any offset or duty to mitigate language. He can take the next few years off if he wants and has no obligation to find another job to offset Florida's payments. Napier has the benefit of time and optionality.

Billy Napier buyout: How much it costs Florida to move on from embattled coach amid disappointing 2025 season
Robby Kalland


He's also got a big tree of friends in college football. Napier spent years at Clemson and Alabama as an assistant and would not have a hard time finding a job this offseason if he wanted to. Whether or not Napier desires to coach next year is unclear. He might not even know for a few days or weeks until he can step back from his firing and look at his time in Gainesville with additional clarity.

If history is any indicator, however, he'll have another shot to be a head coach at some point.

Every Florida head coach since 1990 had another job after their time in Gainesville, and it's not as if being a Jimmy Sexton client will hurt his chances of finding future head coaching work.

Napier is only 46. He's got plenty of time in coaching left ahead of him.

 

[Cnotes53]

Florida's first call should be Lane Kiffin. The tea leaves say he's intrigued​

Big names will be among those considered to replace Billy Napier, but Kiffin should be top of list for Florida​

Getty Images

The most anticipated firing in recent memory finally happened Sunday when Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin dismissed Billy Napier.
Napier is a good guy who had his team still playing hard for him despite considerable outside noise, but the move was necessary. Despite being provided considerable resources, Napier never won enough at a place that can and has won national championships.
The easy part, in some ways, is over. Now, Stricklin has to absolutely nail the hiring of Napier's replacement in what is already a crazy coaching carousel. Florida isn't the only premier job available -- Penn State is another and may not be the last -- and Stricklin will need to be aggressive and decisive about getting the right guy.

There's one name Stricklin needs to make tell him no: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin.

Even before Sunday's Napier firing, the Florida AD had been doing his due diligence on the Ole Miss coach this season and made calls to those around Kiffin, sources told CBS Sports. There are risks involved with hiring Kiffin, one of the most unique personalities in the sport, and industry sources who know Stricklin have previously speculated to CBS Sports the AD might be hesitant to strongly pursue him. That has shifted this coaching cycle, according to sources, as Kiffin has emerged as the name boosters and fans most want.

Of course, Stricklin being interested in Kiffin and hiring him are two completely different things.

Florida fires Billy Napier: Gators part with fourth-year coach amid disappointing 3-4 start to 2025 season
Richard Johnson


Kiffin already makes $9 million -- good for 10th-highest salary among coaches in the country -- and a raise is coming whether he stays or goes. After Indiana recently locked Curt Cignetti up with a fully guaranteed, eight-year, $93 million deal, Ole Miss is ready and willing to step up to keep Lane in Oxford.

"Of course I've been talking with Jimmy (Sexton) and I'm going to be proactive with working out a deal with Lane and Jimmy," Ole Miss AD Keith Carter told the Ole Miss Spirit last week. "I'd love to get something done like Indiana did with Curt Cignetti before the silly season starts. We'll see. I believe Lane's happy here, but you never know what can happen with coaches. That's why I'm being proactive in this process."

Like Cignetti in Bloomington, Kiffin could have a statue in front of Vaught-Hemingway one day if he stays and keeps winning at the rate he has. He has a supportive AD in Carter and one of the sharpest minds in the NIL space in Walker Jones running Ole Miss' collective. At one point feeling boxed in the small-town feel of Oxford that can seem like a fishbowl, Kiffin has since embraced it and felt more at home. His daughter, Landry, is flourishing at Ole Miss while son, Knox, just scored a game-winning touchdown for Oxford High School on Friday. His ex-wife, Layla, now lives there, too.

Life is good in Oxford for Lane. He's more at peace than he's ever been and seems to truly appreciate what he has at Ole Miss in a way the younger version of him was incapable. But that competitive spirit still burns brightly inside of him. There aren't many, if any, jobs that could pull Kiffin away from Ole Miss at this point, but Florida is on the very short list of jobs that would at least make him consider leaving. Lane is well aware of the strong tradition and fan support Florida has, and there are some who know him who believe he is more than intrigued with the idea of being the spiritual successor to Steve Spurrier.

(Alabama is another program on that list, though he was never able to get any traction during the coaching search that ultimately resulted in Kalen DeBoer coming to Tuscaloosa.)

The question Lane will have to ask himself is whether greatness is possible in Oxford. He has reestablished the Rebels as a nationally relevant program and is 50-19 midway through his sixth season. For comparison's sake, his predecessor, Matt Luke, went 15-21 in three seasons. Kiffin has been wildly successful at Ole Miss but has yet to fully break through. Ole Miss just missed making the playoff a year ago, and ironically did so in part because the Rebels lost to Billy Napier's Florida Gators. Ole Miss looks poised to make the playoff this season, which could change the equation for Kiffin, though the Rebels can't afford to lose more than another game or two after the loss to Georgia on Saturday.

Can Kiffin win a national championship at Ole Miss? Or does Florida give him a better chance of accomplishing that lifelong dream?


Only Kiffin can answer that question, but it'll be at the heart of what he considers with any job opportunity that comes his way, whether that's Florida or other jobs like Florida State and Auburn that could open up later this season. Auburn already tried to hire Kiffin previously before he ultimately stayed in Oxford for family reasons. Florida State was prepared to move aggressively to bring Kiffin to Tallahassee, according to sources, had Mike Norvell taken the Alabama job in 2023. Of course, that never came to fruition, but if FSU makes a move on Norvell, Kiffin will be at the top of the Seminoles' wish list, too.

It's a fascinating time to be Lane Kiffin. Once radioactive after stints with USC and the Raiders, Kiffin is now the hottest coaching candidate in college football. The vast majority of coaching jobs that will open this cycle wouldn't even warrant a second of consideration from Lane, but Florida is different.

Now, on his fourth football coaching search, Stricklin needs to do whatever he can to make Lane think long and hard about coming to Gainesville.

 

[Cnotes53]

Players mock, boosters talk and a $55 million decision looms at Florida State​

Conversations about Mike Norvell's future will continue into the week as FSU loses a fourth straight game​

IMAGN Images

What's happening at Florida State is a perfect illustration of how fluid the idea of job security is in college football's new era.
The Seminoles were an early-season darling after a convincing Week 1 win over Alabama and raced off to a 3-0 start -- exactly what coach Mike Norvell needed coming off a 2-10 2024 campaign.
Then came an overtime loss to Virginia. Then Miami. Then Pittsburgh. At that point, the heat had turned up to about medium on Norvell -- no immediate firing, but perhaps in danger after this season if all hell broke loose, and if nothing else the lead face of all 2026 hot seat content.
But now things are at a scalding temperature. In the early hours of Sunday morning, on the East Coast at least, Florida State lost 20-13 to lowly Stanford, a game the Seminoles were favored to win by 17.5 points.

The fourth straight loss (the fourth time Norvell's had a four-game losing streak in Tallahassee) was, in the words of one industry source, when Norvell's seat went from warm to "legit fire hot."

It's a long flight from Palo Alto to Tallahassee. Many boosters, per sources, spent those trips back commiserating and planning. Conversations in Tallahassee about Norvell's status have continued throughout the day; Norvell even acknowledged during a Sunday staff meeting that conversations about his future were happening, sources tell CBS Sports. His buyout of around $55 million, per Noles247, no longer seems like a major roadblock to making a change many around the program view as necessary.

🏈 💰Most Expensive Buyouts in College Football History​

Rank	Coach	School	Buyout Amount
1	Jimbo Fisher	Texas A&M	$76.8 million
2	James Franklin	Penn State	$49 million
3	Gus Malzahn	Auburn	$21.4 million
4	Charlie Weis	Notre Dame	$18.9 million
5	Willie Taggart	Florida State	$18 million
6	Ed Orgeron	LSU	$16.9 million
7	Tom Allen	Indiana	$15.5 million
8	Tom Herman	Texas	$15.4 million
9	Bryan Harsin	Auburn	$15.3 million
10	Art Briles	Baylor	$15.1 million

Some believe Norvell's message is getting lost on his team. After the loss to Stanford, a source told CBS Sports that players were cracking jokes in the locker room about having to "respond" yet again. "Respond" is a common phrase for Norvell to his team as losses mount. CBS Sports' Brandon Marcello, who spent Saturday in the ACC replay center, said on the College Football Insiders that he could see Florida State's sideline in the All-22 camera view and was struck by the lack of player engagement.

Florida State is 5-14 going back to the start of the 2024 season.

The Seminoles again went all-in with the portal this offseason, signing 23 transfers to turn the program around. But just like it saw in 2024, part of the risk of a transfer-heavy strategy is that one-year rentals aren't steeped in the program culture, which matters when things go sideways.

As for the on-field business, this is not a cheap roster. Between rev share and front-loaded name, image and likeness payments, sources say FSU's roster cost well into the $20 million range.

The combination of expensive additions and compounding losses puts Norvell in the crosshairs, especially when you consider there are no easy fix moves remaining after Norvell changed both of his coordinators last offseason.

If the Seminoles fire Norvell, it would cost the program far more than just that $55 million. They would spend millions buying out assistant coach contracts. There are also multiyear deals for Seminole players on the roster the next head coach might not want to keep. Add in a new coach, his staff and a full portal class of salaries and it could cost close to nine figures to fire Norvell.

That's a staggering sum for a program, less than a year ago, that openly rebelled against the ACC to generate more revenue.

Fifty-five million would be the second-largest buyout in college football history. But it's a number some around Tallahassee consider necessary with no sustained signs of improvement.

Could Norvell survive? Absolutely.

Firings in college football are inherently political, and Norvell could claw his way out of this. But even if he escapes Sunday with his job intact, Norvell isn't necessarily safe given that the Seminoles are on a bye week, an opportune time to make a change no matter the day.

Norvell looks like he'll make it through Sunday. Monday, Tuesday and the rest of the year after that? We'll see.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hugh Freeze addresses job security after Auburn's fourth straight SEC loss​

Auburn's third-year coach says decisions about his job are beyond his scope​

Getty Images

Auburn coach Hugh Freeze offered no excuses following Saturday night's 23-17 double-overtime loss to 16th-ranked Missouri, the Tigers' fourth straight competitive setback in SEC play.

Auburn led 17-10 in the fourth quarter prior to Missouri's game-tying drive capped by Ahmad Hardy's 3-yard touchdown run with 5:07 remaining. Two empty possessions in overtime left Freeze in disappointment postgame after another missed opportunity in conference play against a quality opponent.

"Listen, we all know what we signed up and I certainly know we fit what Auburn is all about," Freeze said when asked about his message to fans and job security. "But Auburn is also about winning football and you know, we're going to come to work Monday and get our kids ready to play Arkansas. These kids are playing their guts out and I know that we've changed the talent level here, but at the end of the day, at some point you have to win football games.

"I don't make those decisions, those calls, I just know that God's called me here to lead these young men through a very challenging and difficult time. I'm not enjoying it a whole lot, that part of it, but yet, when you're called to have backbone and to stand and walk through and do a job you've been asked to do, you're going to do it faithfully and do it really well … or do it as well as you can until that time does not exist."

Freeze said before the season that Auburn was taking an "expectant" mentality into the campaign and had the personnel capable of winning big in the SEC. It hasn't happened and Saturday's third loss by a single possession was particularly numbing.

He entered his third season as one of nine coaches with his job on the line, according to CBS Sports' preseason hot seat rankings and was one of a handful within the SEC entering a tenure-defining year.

One of those coaches, Sam Pittman at Arkansas, has already been fired and another -- Florida's Billy Napier -- is facing scorching temperatures. Freeze had posted just one losing season in his career when Auburn hired him away from Liberty in 2023, but consecutive seven-loss campaigns followed by this disappointing start have created mass uncertainty surrounding his future.

Auburn athletic director John Cohen said this week it's "not my expectation at this point" to make a coaching change, but added that he'll "never say never" amid a season of despair.

Auburn's AD says 'not my expectation' to fire Hugh Freeze; compares coach to a car that doesn't always start
Robby Kalland


"I don't know if I'm going to walk outside and my car is going to start or not, I think it is," Cohen said during an interview with AL.com's Peter Rauterkaus on Monday. "I have an expectation it will. But if my car doesn't start enough, then I will evaluate that and make decisions about my car. But that's not my expectation at this point about our football program."

Freeze is 5-15 at Auburn against SEC opponents and the Tigers have lost 11 of their last 13 games in league play.

"This just sucks," Freeze said. "This stinks, and there's nothing you can say to make anyone feel better in that locker room. Our fans are incredible, and we'd love to be at Toomer's (Corner) with them right now. But we're still obviously not finding ways to win games."

 

[Cnotes53]

Brian Kelly buyout, contract details: What it would cost LSU to fire coach as Tigers fall shy of expectations​

Brian Kelly's seat is warming up in Baton Rouge as the Tigers appear likely to miss the College Football Playoff once again​

Getty Images

LSU came into the 2025 season with lofty expectations under Brian Kelly, but after a second loss to a ranked opponent in three weeks, the Tigers are now 5-2 and dangerously close to elimination from College Football Playoff contention.

After losing to Ole Miss at home in Week 6, LSU went on the road and lost to Vanderbilt in Week 8 and are now looking up at a number of teams above them in the SEC standings. With No. 4 Texas A&M and No. 6 Alabama looming on the schedule in the next two weeks, pressure is at an all-time high for Kelly to lead the Tigers to big wins if he's going to quiet the noise about his job status.

With the loss in Nashville, Kelly is now 34-13 in his four seasons at LSU, where the Tigers have lost at least three games in each of his first three seasons in charge and failed to reach the Playoff. Given the expectation at LSU is to win national championships, that streak continuing for a fourth consecutive year would certainly raise questions about whether Kelly should remain in his post leading the Tigers.

Brian Kelly contract, buyout details ​

Kelly signed a 10-year contract in 2021 and is making $9.4 million this season, with 6 years and $58.2 million remaining on his deal that runs through 2031. His buyout calls for Kelly to be paid 90% of his salary through the remainder of his contract, which would be $52,380,000 if he's fired after this season. If they fire him during the season, they'd add 90% of whatever is remaining of the $9.4 million he's owed for this year to that figure.

Kelly, who is 63 years old, could also look at retirement after this season if he felt it was best for him to step down. We've seen a number of long-time coaches step away from college football in recent years, citing the changing landscape of revenue-sharing and NIL, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Kelly could step away willingly -- or at least, amicably.

In any case, with the coaching carousel already spinning quickly, we could see more teams entering the fray after James Franklin's firing at Penn State made it clear that no buyout is too large. A number of SEC teams, including Florida and LSU, could be mulling a coaching change in what figures to be one of the crazier years for coaching movement.

That said, the $52+ million that would be owed to Kelly is one of the 10 biggest in the sport and LSU would need to feel extremely confident they had a superior coach lined up to make that kind of decision.

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads for next week:
— Baylor @ Cincinnati (-4)
— Ole Miss @ Oklahoma (-4)
— Auburn @ Arkansas (even)
— Kansas State @ Kansas (-2)
— Texas (-7) @ Mississippi State
— Texas A&M (-1) @ LSU

Quote of the Day
“It’s a blast. Sometimes travel is tough, but once you get out here, the fans are great, people are great.”
Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford, on playing in London Sunday

Monday’s quiz
In the history of the Seattle Mariners, who has the most hits?

Sunday’s quiz
Joe Kapp was QB for the Vikings, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Saturday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl is played in El Paso, TX every December.

*************************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Sunday……..

— Blue Jays 6, Mariners 2
Addison Barger went 2-for-3 with a homer, three RBI
Trey Yesavage allowed two runs, got 17 outs.
Blue Jays led 4-0 in third inning, coasted home from there.
Winner-take-all Game 7 for the AL title is Monday night at 8:00.

— Broncos 33, Giants 32
Giants led 26-8 with 6:00 left in the game.
Denver is first 3 quarters: 42 plays, 112 yards, no points.
Denver in 4th quarter: 35 plays, 295 yards, 33 points.
Broncos kicked a 39-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.

Giants drove 65 yards, scored TD to take 32:30 lead with 0:37 left.
Giants missed two extra points, which proved costly.
Rookie QB Dart threw for 283 yards and three TD’s.
Denver survived committing 12 penalties for 127 yards.

— Packers 27, Cardinals 23
Cardinals led 20-13 after the third quarter.
Packers had TD drives of 67-48 yards in the 4th quarter.
Packers are 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
Green Bay is 4-0-1 SU when it scores 27+ points.

Cardinals lost last five games by total of 13 points.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 19-10 ATS as an underdog.
Last four games, Cardinals converted 29-59 third down plays.
TE McBride caught 10 passes for 74 yards, two TD’s.

— Eagles 28, Vikings 22
DeVonta Smith caught nine passes for 183 yards and a TD.
Eagles are 5-2, but have been outgained in all seven games.
Eagles are 13-2-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or fewer points
Last four games, Philly was held to 86-88-45-73-45 rushing yards.

Minnesota was in red zone six times: one TD, five FG’s.
Vikings were 7-15 on third down, Eagles 3-10.
Vikings in first half: 31 plays, 127 yards, six points.
Vikings in second half: 42 plays, 214 yards, 16 points.

— Famous birthdays, October 20:
Juan Marichal, 88
Isaac Curtis, 75
Dave Collins, 73
Dave Krieg, 67

Herman Moore, 56
Eddie Jones, 54
Calvin Broadus, 54 (Snoop Dogg)
Jose Soriano, 27

Today would’ve been the great actor Jerry Orbach’s 90th birthday.

— Rams 35, Jaguars 7
Stafford threw 5 TD passes; Davante Adams caught 3 of them.
Rams first four drives: 27 plays, 199 yards, 21 points.
Jaguars’ first four drives: 23 plays, 58 yards, mo points.
Rams allowed 9-19-20-3-7 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.

Rams are 5-0 SU/ATS vs AFC teams this season.
Rams are 14-7 ATS in last 21 games as a favorite.
Jaguars committed 13 penalties for 119 yards.
Jaguars are +7 in turnovers in their wins, only plus-1 in losses.

— Panthers 13, Jets 6
Panthers are over .500 this late in year for first time since 2019.
QB Young left late in 3rd quarter with a sprained ankle.
Panthers were only 5-17 on third down, but 3-4 on fourth down.
Carolina won its last three games, by 3-3-7 points.

Jets lost first seven games, five of them by 7 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Jets lost 13-11/13-6.
In those games, Jets were outgained 548-302.
Fields threw for 46 yards in first half; Taylor threw for 126 yards in 2nd half.

— Colts 38, Chargers 24
Colts led 23-3 at halftime, improved to 6-1.
Colts’ first seven drives: 49 plays, 368 yards, 38 points (5 TDs/FG).
Indy scored 29+ points in all six of its wins.
Colts are 15-6 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Herbert threw INTs on two of Chargers’ first four drives.
Bolts ran ball 16 times for only 54 yards.
Chargers’ first three drives of 2nd half: 27 plays, 222 yards, 21 points.
Last three games, Chargers allowed 27-27-38 points.

— Chiefs 31, Raiders 0
Chiefs in first half: 48 plays, 270 yards, 21 points.
Raiders in first half: 14 plays, 39 yards, no points.
For game, KC ran 77 plays for 434 yards, Raiders 30 for 95 yards
Raiders have run for 106 or fewer yards in six of seven games.

Chiefs won/covered four of their last five games.
Last five games, Kansas City is +6 in turnovers.
Chiefs converted 31 of last 64 third down plays.
Last 4 games, Chiefs threw ball for 264/318/248/282 yards.

— Browns 31, Dolphins 6
Cleveland led 17-6 at halftime.
Tagovailoa threw a pick-6 on first drive of third quarter.
Dolphins in 2nd half: 33 plays, 109 yards, 3 turnovers.
Miami was 1-13 on 3rd down, had 11 penalties for 103 yards.

RB Judkins ran ball 25 times for 84 yards and three TD’s.
Browns’ first four drives: 29 plays, 193 yards, 17 points.
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Home teams are 7-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.

— Movie of the Day: American Underdog (2021)- The true story of NFL QB Kurt Warner, who went from playing Arena Football and working in a supermarket, to being the Super Bowl MVP, and later getting inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Zach Levi, Anna Paquin, Dennis Quaid, Bruce McGill are in the cast; this movie is better than Moneyball because…….well, the good guys win in the end.

— Patriots 31, Titans 13
NE outgained Tennessee 387-255 in Vrabel’s return to Nashville.
New England outscored the Titans 17-0 in the second half.
Patriots won last four games, scoring 42-23-25-31 points.
Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.

Tennessee is 1-6 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26-10-18 points.
Titans in second half: 24 plays, 60 yards, two turnovers.
Tennessee only ran the ball 12 times for 39 yards.
Titans have five TD’s, 14 FG’s on their 67 drives.

— Bears 26, Saints 14
Bears won their last four games, scoring 31-25-25-26 points.
RB Swift ran ball 19 times for 124 yards and a TD.
Bears have forced 3+ turnovers in their last four games.
Chicago is 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.

Saints ran the ball 17 times for only 44 yards.
Saints lost their three road games, 44-13/31-19/26-14.
New Orleans has been outscored 140-72 in first half of games.
Saints are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.

— Cowboys 44, Commanders 22
First four Dallas drives: 12 plays, 170 yards; 2 TD’s, FG, safety
Prescott threw for 264 yards and three TD’s.
Lamb caught five passes for 110 yards, including a 74-yard TD.
DaRon Bland scored on a 68-yard pick-6.

Cowboys led 27-15 at halftime.
Washington’s foes’ over/under total: over 5-1 last six games.
QB Daniels hurt his hamstring, left late in third quarter.
Commanders are 2-8 SU/ATS in last ten visits to Dallas.

— 49ers 20, Falcons 10
49ers ran the ball 39 times for 174 yards.
McCaffrey ran ball for 129 yards, also had 72 receiving yards.
San Francisco led 10-3 at halftime.
49ers allowed 26-30 points in losses, 23 or less in wins.

Falcons’ only TD drive was 48 yards, on first drive of 3rd quarter.
Atlanta ran ball 20 times for only 62 yards.
Under is 5-1 in Falcons’ games this season.
Atlanta scored 22-34-24 points in its wins, 20-0 in losses.

 

[Udog]

WEEK NINE