NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
Saturday’s games
Vanderbilt @ Texas (-3.5)
Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1)
Vandy scored 31+ points in six of their seven wins.
Commodores’ only loss: 30-14 at Alabama.
Commodores have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 139 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Senior QB Pavia has started 36 college games
Under Lea, Vandy is 21-20 ATS as an underdog.
Under Lea, Vandy is 14-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Lea, Vandy is 19-17 ATS in SEC games (9-3 last 12)
Under Lea, Vandy is 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-2 in Vandy’s last five games.
Texas (6-2, 3-1)
Texas QB Manning has been in concussion protocol (check status)
Longhorns won last three games, by 15-3-7 points.
Longhorns have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Longhorns have 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
This is Longhorns’ first home game since September 20th.
Texas is 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season.
In his career, Sarkisian is 47-38 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Sarkisian is 34-23 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 18-23 ATS in conference games.
Over is 3-2 in their last five games.
Texas (-17) beat Vanderbilt 27-24 LY, in Nashville.
Longhorns outgained Vandy, 392-269
SEC home favorites are 13-10 ATS in conference games.
Duke @ Clemson (-3.5)
Duke (4-3, 3-1)
Duke is 0-3 when it scores less than 38 points.
Blue Devils are +10 in turnovers in wins, minus-6 in losses.
Duke has gained 418+ total yards in all seven games.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Mensah started 13 games at Tulane.
Duke is 7-13 ATS last 20 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 8-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2022, Duke is 18-10 ATS in ACC games.
Duke is 9-5 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-2 in their I-A games.
Clemson (3-4, 2-3)
Clemson is 0-4 when it scores less than 27 points.
Tigers lost three of four home games this year.
Clemson has gained 488+ total yards in 3 of last 4 games.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Clemson has 122 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Klubnik started 28 games last two years.
Clemson is 0-4 ATS at home this year.
Tigers are 3-8 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
Clemson is 10-12 ATS in last 22 ACC games.
Tigers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Tigers won 10 of last 12 meetings.
Duke is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Clemson.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
ACC home favorites are 9-6 ATS in conference games.
Army (-1.5) @ Air Force
Army (3-4)
Army is 3-0 allowing 21 or less points, 0-4 giving up 24+.
Army also lost 30-27 to I-AA Tarleton State
Army has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Black Knights have 42 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Coleman started one game last year.
Black Knights have run ball for 237+ yards in every game.
Last four games, Army is +4 in turnovers.
Under Monken, Army is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite.
Army is 10-13 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss.
Last four Army games stayed under the total.
AAC road teams are 12-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Air Force (2-5)
Air Force is 1-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 41.3 points/game.
Falcons allowed 473+ yards in five of last six games.
Air Force has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Air Force has 30 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB started one game last year
Since 2021, Air Force is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Flyboys are 25-16 ATS in last 41 non-conference games.
Air Force is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Over is 5-1 in their I-A games.
Mountain West home teams are 8-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Army won six of last eight meetings.
Last two years, Army won 20-3/23-3.
This is Cadets’ first visit to Air Force since 2019.
Under is 11-0 in last eleven series games.
Arizona State @ Iowa State (-7.5)
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2)
ASU’s three Big X wins were by 3-3-4 points.
Last six games, ASU is +7 in turnovers.
ASU has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Sun Devils have 76 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Leavitt started 13 games last year.
Under Dillingham, Sun Devils are 16-7-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 10-8 ATS as an underdog.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 6-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Dillingham, ASU 13-7-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under is 6-1 in Sun Devils’ last seven games.
Iowa State (5-3, 2-3)
Iowa State lost last two games, 38-30/24-17/41-27
Iowa State Is 5-0 when it allows less than 24 points.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
Iowa State is 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Campbell is 31-33-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Cyclones are 13-11 ATS in last 24 Big X games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Since 2015, Iowa State is 35-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Sun Devils beat Iowa State 45-19 LY in Big X title game.
ASU ran for 245 yards, outgained Cyclones 464-341.
Big X home favorites are 18-9 ATS in conference games.
Georgia (-7.5) vs Florida (@ Jacksonville)
Georgia (6-1, 4-1)
Georgia won last three games, by 21-10-8 points.
Dawgs’ only loss was 24-21 at home to Alabama.
Dawgs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Georgia has 35 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Stockton has three career starts.
Georgia is 7-18-1 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, Georgia is 10-13 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Smart is 42-49-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Smart is 48-39 ATS in SEC games.
Dawgs are 7-18-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
Florida (3-4, 2-2)
Gators are 2-4 vs I-A teams, scoring 12.5 ppg in losses.
Florida scored 29-23 points in their I-A wins.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Gators have 98 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Lagway started eight games last year.
Gators are 1-5 ATS in last six games overall.
Florida is 13-10 ATS last 23 games as an underdog
Florida is 6-3 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
Florida is 15-13 ATS in last 28 SEC games.
Under is 4-2 in Florida’s I-A games.
Georgia is 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS last eight series games.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
SEC favorites are 19-17 ATS in conference games.
Texas Tech (-7.5) @ Kansas State
Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1)
Texas Tech scored 34+ points in all seven wins.
Tech’s only loss: 26-22 at Arizona State.
Red Raiders have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Red Raiders have 138 returning starts on the offensive line.
FroshQB Hammond has thrown for 668 yards (7 TD’s, 3 INTs)
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 9-10 ATS in road games.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 3-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Under McGuire, Tech is 18-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Overall, Tech is 6-1 ATS this season.
Under is 5-1 in Tech’s last six games.
Kansas State (4-4, 3-3)
Wildcats won 3 of last 4 games, scoring 34-34-41-42 points.
K-State is 1-4 in games decided by 6 or less points.
Wildcats have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
K-State has 43 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Johnson started 13 games last year.
Under Klieman, K-State is 19-10 ATS as an underdog.
Under Klieman, K-State is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 56-41 ATS in Big X games.
K-State is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Last five games, Wildcats are +8 in turnovers.
Last four K-State games went over the total.
K-State (-7.5) is 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS last eight series games.
Tech is 0-6 SU/ATS in last six visits to the Little Apple.
Over is 12-4 in last 16 meetings.
Big X home underdogs are 5-6 ATS in conference games.
Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ NC State
Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0)
Tech is 8-0 for the first time since 1966.
Tech’s three road wins are by 7-1-9 points.
Yellow Jackets have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Yellow Jackets have 103 returning starts on OL, but lot of transfers.
Senior QB King has 26 career starts.
Tech is 8-0 despite a minus-2 turnover ratio.
Tech is 5-2 ATS so far this season.
Since 2022, Tech is 2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Key, Yellow Jackets are 8-9 ATS as a favorite.
Under Key, Yellow Jackets are 18-10 ATS in ACC games.
NC State (4-4, 2-3)
NC State lost last four I-A games, giving up 39.3 ppg.
Last three I-A games, Wolfpack gave up 482.3 yards/game.
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Bailey started 9 games LY.
Under Doeren, Wolfpack is 12-12 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Doreen is 27-34-2 ATS as an underdog.
Last 5+ years, Wolfpack is 26-20 ATS in conference games.
Wolfpack is 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-2 in their last six I-A games.
Yellow Jackets won four of last five series games.
Tech won five of last six visits to Raleigh.
Six of last seven meetings went over the total.
Arizona (-3.5) @ Colorado
Arizona (4-3, 2-3)
Arizona lost 3 of last 4 games, after a 3-0 start.
Wildcats gave up 39-33-31 points in their losses.
Arizona has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Wildcats have 84 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Fifita has 21 career starts
Since 2019, Arizona is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Brennan is 5-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Arizona is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 36-32-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 2-6 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four games.
Colorado (3-5, 1-4)
Colorado lost 53-7 to Utah LW, outgained 587-140.
Buffs gave up 200+ rushing yards in four of five losses.
Colorado has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Colorado has 112 returning starts on offensive line, mostly transfers.
Senior QB Salter started 29 games at Liberty.
Favorites are 6-2 ATS in Colorado games this season.
Sanders is 11-7 ATS as an underdog with Colorado (2-4 TY).
Under Sanders, Colorado is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 15-9 ATS in conference games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Arizona won five of last six visits to Boulder.
Over is 10-4 in last 14 series games.
Big X home underdogs are 5-6 ATS in conference games.
South Carolina @ Ole Miss (-12.5)
South Carolina (3-5, 1-5)
Gamecocks scored 24-35 in I-A wins, 7-20-10-7-22 in losses.
Last five games, Carolina is +4 in turnovers.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Gamecocks have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Sellers started 12 games last year.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 9-7 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 21-17 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 16-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 12-7 ATS in road games.
Under is 4-3 in Gamecocks’ I-A games.
Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)
Ole Miss scored 30+ points in five of last seven games.
Five of their last six wins were by 8 or fewer points.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Chambliss is 128-210/1,864 passing this season.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 26-20-2 ATS as a favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 16-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 40-33-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 20-24-2 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 5-3 in Ole Miss games this year.
Ole Miss won six of last nine series games.
Teams split their last four games in Oxford.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
SEC home favorites are 13-10 ATS in conference games.
Oklahoma @ Tennessee (-2.5)
Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2)
Oklahoma lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
Under Venables, Sooners are 9-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year- he is banged up (check status).
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 12-18-1 ATS in conference games.
Sooners are 6-2 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Oklahoma is 0-2 when they allow 300+ total yards.
Under is 6-1 in Oklahoma’s I-A games.
Tennessee (6-2, 3-2)
Vols allowed 31+ points in 5 of last 6 games (44-37 in losses).
Vols has gained 410+ yards in all eight games.
Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Vols have 46 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Aguilar started 24 games at Appalachian State.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 16-10 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 25-18 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Heupel, Vols are 19-20 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 16-21 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 5-2 in their I-A games.
Tennessee (-7) beat Sooners 25-15 in Norman LY.
Vols outgained Oklahoma 345-222 in that game
That is teams’ only meeting since 2015.
SEC home favorites are 13-10 ATS in conference games.
USC (-4.5) @ Nebraska
USC (5-2, 3-2)
Trojans allowed 34 points in both their losses.
Trojans scored 31+ points in six of seven games.
USC has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Trojans have 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Maiava started 15 games the last two years.
Under Riley, USC is 3-12 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Riley is 9-23-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Riley, USC is 7-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Riley, USC is 13-19 ATS in Big 18 games.
Over is 4-3 in USC games.
Nebraska (6-2, 3-2)
Nebraska is 5-0 when it scores 28+ points, 1-2 if they don’t.
Nebraska gained less than 300 yards in three of last four games.
Cornhuskers have 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Nebraska has 131 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Raiola started 13 games LY (2,819 yards (13 TDs, 11 INTs)
In his career, Rhule is 31-27-2 ATS in home games.
Since 2017, Nebraska is 6-11-1 ATS as a home underdog.
As a college coach, Rhule is 13-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Rhule, Nebraska is 6-14-3 ATS in conference games.
Over is 5-1 in their last six I-A games.
USC (-7) beat Nebraska 28-20 at home LY.
That was teams’ only meeting since 2014.
Big 18 home underdogs are 9-9 ATS in conference games.
Cincinnati @ Utah (-10.5)
Cincinnati (7-1, 5-0)
Cincinnati won seven in row since 20-17 loss vs Nebraska.
Cincinnati is 5-0 in Big X, scoring 37 ppg.
Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bearcats have 81 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby has 19 career starts.
Under Satterfield, Cincinnati is 4-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Satterfield is 13-18-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Satterfield is 19-26-5 ATS as an underdog.
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in conference games this year.
Over is 4-2 in their last six I-A games.
Utah (6-2, 3-2)
Last four games, Utah ran ball for 266.5 yards/game
Utes scored 31+ points in its wins, 10-21 in losses.
Utes have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Utah has 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Dampier started 12 games at New Mexico (check injury status).
Utah is 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Whittingham is 55-45-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Utah is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Since 2016, Utes are 53-33 ATS in conference games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Big X home favorites are 16-9 ATS in conference games.
