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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Thru four weeks, teams with fewest pass plays of 20+ yards:
4— Saints
5— Cardinals
6— Commanders
7— Bengals, Dolphins
8— Browns, Jaguars, Eagles, Titans
9— Jets

Quote of the Day
“The Yankees, they’re not a good team. I don’t care what their record is.”
Blue Jays’ TV analyst Buck Martinez. Hopefully he was kidding.

Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, Warren Moon has thrown for the most yards.

Thursday’s quiz
1995 was the last time the Cincinnati Reds won a playoff series, the longest current drought in the major leagues.

*************************************

Saturday’s Den: How NFL teams do on first drive of a half​

How NFL teams do on first drive of a half:
(All teams 4 games/8 halves, except SF/Rams (5/10))

NFC East

Dallas:
outscored 34-7 on first drive of a half
outgained 197-88 on first drive of games

Giants:
10-10 on first drive of each half
last three weeks, Giants gained 190 yards on first drive of game.

Eagles:
outscored opponents 27-14 on first drive of a half
scored TD on first drive in 3 of 4 games.

Commanders:
outscored 16-10 on first drive of a half
first drives of a game: 17 plays, 43 yards

NFC North

Bears:
outscored opponents 28-10 on first drive of a half
have four takeaways in first drive of a half (+4)
first drive of half: 4 TD’s, 4 three/outs.

Lions:
outscored 35-27 on first drive of a half
Allowed a TD on first drive in all four games
39 plays, 325 yards, four TD’s

Packers:
outscored opponents 24-3 on first drive of a half
opponents’ first drive of game: 17 plays, 38 yards, no points

Vikings:
outscored opponents 17-13 on first drive of a half
opponents on 1st drive, last 4 halves: 12 plays, 8 yards, 4 punts

NFC South

Falcons
outscored opponents 23-10 on first drive of a half
first drive of game: 28 plays, 197 yards, 13 points.

Panthers
outscored opponents 24-20 on first drive of a half
Last two games, had TD drives of 61-76 yards on their 1st drive.

Saints
outscored 27-14 on first drive of a half
Last 2 games, gave up 3 TD’s and FG on first drive of the half.

Buccaneers
outscored 24-13 on first drive of a half
opponents on 1st drive of half: 28 plays, 253 yards, 24 points

NFC West

Cardinals
outscored opponents 16-10 on first drive of a half
opponents on 1st drive of game: 15 plays, 42 yards, no points

Rams
outscored opponents 27-20 on first drive of a half
in their two losses, opponent scored a TD on their first drive.

49ers
outscored opponents 17-0 on first drive of a game
Last 2 games, 49ers averaged 64.3 yards/1st drive of a half

Seahawks
outscored opponents 27-10 on first drive of a half
last three games, have 3 TD’s, 2 FG’s on first drive of half.

Famous birthdays, October 4th:
Susan Sarandon, 79
Tony LaRussa, 81
John Wathan, 76
Truck Robinson, 74
AC Green, 62
Mark McLemore, 61
Liev Schreiber, 58
Kurt Thomas, 53
Tony Gwynn Jr, 43
Derrick Rose, 37
Dakota Johnson, 36
Oneil Cruz, 27

AFC East

Bills
outscored opponents 52-24 on first drive of a half
1st drives of a half: 70 plays, 560 yards, 7 TD’s, FG

Dolphins
outscored 34-20 on first drive of a half
opponents average 74.3 yards/opening drive of game.

Patriots
outscored 31-14 on first drive of a half
opponents on 1st drive of game: 24 plays, 201 yards, 21 points.

Jets
outscored 33-13 on first drive of a half
Opponents on 1st drive of half: 3 TD’s, 4 field goals

AFC North

Ravens
outscored 38-37 on first drive of a half
last two games, started game with TD drives of 80-70 yards

Bengals
outscored 28-17 on first drive of a half
allowed TD on first drive in three of four games

Browns
outscored opponents 14-10 on first drive of a half
Last 3 games: 13 plays, 19 plays on first drive of 3rd quarter

Steelers
17-17 on first drive of each half
first drive of 2nd half: 15 plays, 30 yards, no points

AFC South

Texans
outscored 17-10 on first drive of a half
first drive of 2nd half: 23 plays, 58 yards, no points

Colts
outscored 24-22 on first drive of a half
1st drive of half: one TD, 5 FG’s, 2 turnovers

Jaguars
outscored 20-13 on first drive of a half
Opponents on 1st drive of 3rd quarter: 27 plays, 245 yards, 14 points

AFC West

Broncos
outscored opponents 14-10 on first drive of a half
opponents on 1st drive of half: 66 plays, 341 yards, 7 FG’s

Chiefs
outscored opponents 27-20 on first drive of a half
1st drive of 3rd quarter: 32 plays, 224 yards, 21 points

Raiders
17-17 on first drive of each half
last 3 games, threw three INT’s on first drive of a half.

Chargers
outscored 24-19 on first drive of a half
opponents on 1st drive of 3rd quarter: 41 plays, 228 yards, 17 points
 
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Week 6

FCS - Saturday

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Saturday, October 4​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
UK at UGA12:00 PMU 48.5+500
WIS at MICH12:00 PMU 43.0+500
KSU at BAY12:00 PMBAY -6.0+500
OHIO at BALL12:00 PMOHIO -14.5+500
AFA at NAVY12:00 PMNAVY -13.5+500
ILL at PUR12:00 PMILL -9.5+500
ISU at CIN12:00 PMISU +1.0+500
ARMY at UAB12:00 PMARMY -6.5+500
WMU at MASS02:30 PMMASS +13.0 *****BEST BET FOR THE DAY+500
BSU at ND03:30 PMND -21.0+500
WASH at MD03:30 PMU 52.5+500
VAN at ALA03:30 PMVAN +11.5+500
ORST at APP03:30 PMAPP -1.0+500
EMU at BUFF03:30 PMBUFF -10.0+500
TEX at FLA03:30 PMTEX -4.5+500
SYR at SMU03:30 PMSMU -17.5+500
JMU at GSU03:30 PMJMU -20.0+500
MSU at NEB04:00 PMU 48.5+500
KENT at OKLA04:00 PMU 54.0+500
CCU at ODU06:00 PMODU -20.0+500
 
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EVENING BEST BETS !

USA at TROY07:00 PMTROY +1.0+500
TTU at HOU07:00 PMTTU -11.5
O 51.5		+500 +500
UNLV at WYO07:00 PMWYO +3.5
O 49.0		+500 +500
COLO at TCU07:30 PMTCU -13.5
U 57.0		+500 +500
MSST at TAM07:30 PMTAM -16.0+500
MIA at FSU07:30 PMFSU +4.0
U 54.5		+500 +500
MINN at OSU07:30 PMOSU -23.5
U 42.5		+500 +500
TLSA at MEM08:00 PMMEM -20.5
U 55.0		+500 +500
DUKE at CAL10:30 PMDUKE -3.0
U 54.5		+500 +500
NEV at FRES10:30 PMFRES -13.5
O 45.5		+500 +500
 
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CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/04/2025..................14 - 11 - 1......................56.00%..................+ 9.50
10/03/2025.....................1 - 5 - 0.......................16.66%.................- 22.50
10/02/2025.....................1 - 1 - 0.......................50.00%.................- 0.50
.
TOTALS.......................15 - 17 - 1.......................46.87%..................- 13.50
 
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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Over last 120 years, players who hit 7+ triples, 6+ HR’s in a month:
1911— Frank Schilte
1914— Ed Lennox
1921— Ty Cobb
1929— Babe Herman
1957— Willie Mays
2025— Daylen Lile

Quote of the Day
“The main thing we need to do is to keep doing what we’re doing but do them better. Fundamentally we’re not doing the wrong things, we’re just not doing them well enough. It’s a lack of concentration, and part of that is coaching, too, so I’ll take my share of the responsibility.”
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick

Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, which NFL team has the best record against the spread?

Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, Warren Moon has thrown for the most yards.

*****************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….​

— UCLA 42, Penn State 37
Bruins, with an interim head coach, were 24.5-point underdogs.
UCLA led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Nico Iamaleava threw for 166 yards, 2 TD’s, ran for 128 yards, 3 TD’s.

— Miami 28, Florida State 22
Carson Beck threw for 240 yards, four TD’s
Hurricanes led 28-3 after three quarters, hung on for the win.
Miami was +3 in turnovers; they had 12 penalties for 98 yards.

— Florida 29, Texas 21
Florida gets its first I-A win in four tries.
Gators had scored total of 33 points in their three losses.
Texas is 0-2 on road, losing this game, also 14-7 at Ohio State.

— Alabama 30, Vanderbilt 14
Game was tied 14-14 at halftime.
Crimson Tide outgained Vandy, 486-333.
Alabama threw for 340 yards (11.0 Yards/attempt)

— UNLV 31, Wyoming 17
October 4th, and it snowed in Laramie, Wyoming.
5-0 Rebels led this game 24-3 at halftime.
UNLV ran for 153 yards, was +2 in turnovers.

— Upsets of the Day:
UCLA (+24.5) 42, Penn State 37
Ball State (+14.5) 20, Ohio U 14
Arkansas State (+13.5) 31, Texas State 30
Akron (+8.5) 28, Central Michigan 22
Virginia (+7.5) 30, Louisville 27 OT
Florida (+6.5) 29, Texas 21
Wake Forest (+6.5) 30, Virginia Tech 23
Temple (+6.5) 27, Tex-San Antonio 21

— Brewers 9, Cubs 3
Milwaukee scored six runs in the first inning.
Jackson Chourio had 3 RBI, but aggravated his leg injury.
Freddy Peralta got 17 outs, allowed two runs.

— Blue Jays 10, New York 1
Alejandro Kirk hit two home runs.
Leading 2-1, Blue Jays scored four runs in 7th, four more in 8th.
This was Toronto’s first win in a playoff game since 2016

— Dodgers 5, Phillies 3
Teoscar Hernandez hit a 3-run homer in the 7th inning.
Phillies led 3-0 after five innings.
Tyler Glasnow got 5 outs, in his first relief stint in seven years.

— Tigers 3, Mariners 2 (11)
Zack McKinstry had the game-winning single in the 11th inning.
Detroit used 8 pitchers; they were 2-8 with RISP.
McKinstry’s hit was Detroit’s only hit after the fifth inning.

— Famous birthdays, October 5th:
Trace Armstrong, 60
Jeff Lebo, 59
Rex Chapman, 58
Grant Hill, 53
Kate Winslet, 50
Jesse Palmer, 47
Travis Kelce, 36
Zack Littell, 30
Michael Hoecht, 28

— Virginia 30, Louisville 27 OT
Virginia led 24-14 after three quarters.
Louisville forced OT, kicked 50-yard FG with 1:08 left.
4-1 Louisville outgained the 5-1 Cavaliers, 383-237

— Clemson 38, North Carolina 10
Clemson’s first four drives: 16 plays, 253 yards, 28 points.
Tigers passed for 399 yards (10.2 yards/attempt)
North Carolina is 1-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 34-48-38 points in losses.

— Washington 24, Maryland 20
Maryland led this game 20-0 in the third quarter.
Washington’s last five drives: 45 plays, 298 yards, 24 points.
Maryland’s last four drives: 19 plays, 52 yards, no points.

— Appalachian State 27, Oregon State 23
App State led 17-0 in first quarter; they were +3 in turnovers.
Beavers outgained App State, 456-354.
Oregon State QB Murphy threw for 358 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INTs

— Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Tech QB Morton threw for 345 yards and a TD.
5-0 Red Raiders led 25-11 at halftime.
Tech outgained Houston, 552-267.
 
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Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 6 NFL spreads:
— Eagles (-7.5) @ Giants
— Broncos (-7.5) vs Jets (@ London)
— Browns @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
— Chargers (-5.5) @ Miami
— Cardinals @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
— Seahawks @ Jacksonville (-1.5)

Quote of the Day
“I don’t really know what to think about that. I don’t even know. I really don’t even know. That’s ‘How to Lose a Game 101.’ I don’t know. It was crazy.”
Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray

Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; who did they beat?

Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)

Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.

*************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….​

Titans 22, Cardinals 21
Arizona led 21-6 with 13:00 left; RB Demercado appeared to run for a 72-yard TD to salt the game away, but he dropped the ball just before he crossed the goal line; it became a touchback.
Arizona’s first four drives: 22 plays, 173 yards, 21 points.
Arizona rest of game: 42 plays, 185 yards, no points.
Cardinals lost their last three games by total of five points.
Rookie QB Ward threw for 265 yards in his first NFL win.
Titans’ last three drives: 25 plays, 205 yards, TD-INT-FG
WR Ridley caught five passes for 131 yards.
Tennessee also scored a TD when Arizona picked off a Ward pass with 5:00 left, but the guy fumbled and the Titans recovered it in the end zone for a TD.

Broncos 21, Eagles 17
Eagles led 17-3 after the third quarter.
Broncos in first 3 quarters: 45 plays, 171 yards, 3 points.
Denver in 4th quarter: 27 plays, 190 yards, 18 points.
Down 17-10, Denver scored a TD with 7:36 left; they went for 2 points and the lead, and made it, talking the lead for good.
Eagles’ last five drives: 20 plays, 54 yards, no points.
Eagles are 4-1, but they’ve been outgained in all five games.
Philly converted 2-11 third down plays, Broncos 5-16.
Philly is 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.

Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35
Buccaneers kicked a 39-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
Tampa Bay is 3-0 on road, with wins by 1-3-3 points.
Tampa Bay is 13-2 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Mayfield threw for 379 yards, two TD’s.
Both teams averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks’ first 3 drives: 15 plays, 95 yards, no points.
Seahawks’ last six drives: 30 plays, 311 yards, 35 points, one INT
Seattle is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.

Panthers 27, Dolphins 24
Carolina drove 78 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:59 left.
RB Dowdle ran ball 23 times for 206 yards and a TD.
Panthers outgained Miami, 418-248.
Carolina won both its home games, scoring 30-27 points.
Miami led 17-0 with 5:00 left in first half.
Dolphins ran the ball 14 times for only 19 yards.
Dolphins are 0-3 on road, giving up 30.3 ppg.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Vikings 21, Browns 17
Vikings drove 80 yards in 10 plays, scored game-winning TD with 0:25 left.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 28-10 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 20-13-3 ATS as a favorite.
Vikings are first team in ’25 to gain more than 277 yards vs Cleveland.
Rookie QB Gabriel threw for 190 yards, 2 TD’s in his first NFL start.
Rookie RB Judkins ran for 110 yards on 23 carries.
Minnesota converted 3-9 on third down, Cleveland 3-15.
In their 1-4 start, Browns have scored 16-17-13-10-17 points.

Patriots 23, Bills 20
New England led 6-3 at halftime.
Patriots kicked a 52-yard FG with 0:15 left for the win.
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
New England is 2-0 on road (33-27 @ Miami/23-20 here)
Bills outgained NE 363-338, but had 3 turnovers (minus-2)
Buffalo in first half: 27 plays, 125 yards, 3 points.
Buffalo in 2nd half: 36 plays, 263 yards, 17 points.
Patriots are 2-5 SU/5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Buffalo.

Famous birthdays, October 6th:
Tony Dungy, 70
Alfredo Griffin, 68
Elisabeth Shue, 62
Rubén Sierra, 60
Jeremy Sisto, 51
Freddy Garcia, 49
Jake Bauers, 30
Bryson Stott, 28
Herb Jones, 27
Trevor Lawrence, 26
Kyle Pitts, 25
Jonathan Kuminga, 23

— Blue Jays 13, New York 7
Toronto led 11-0 in the fourth inning.
Daulton Varsho was 4-for-5, scoring 4 runs, with 4 RBI
Toronto leads series 2-0; Game 3 is Tuesday in New York.

— Mariners 3, Tigers 2
Julio Rodriguez won the game with an 8th inning double.
Skubal pitched 7 innings, but Tigers got only three hits.
Series is tied, 1-1; Game 3 is Tuesday in Detroit.

Texans 44, Ravens 10
Texans’ first five drives: 36 plays, 266 yards, 31 points.
QB Stroud threw for 244 yards, four TD’s.
Houston outgained the Ravens, 417-207.
Texans won last two games 26-0/44-10, after an 0-3 start.
QB Jackson didn’t play; Baltimore trailed 24-3 at halftime.
Baltimore’s first six drives: 28 plays, 112 yards, 7 points.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 409.4 yards/game.

Saints 26, Giants 14
Giants led 14-3 New Orleans early in the second quarter.
Rattler threw an 87-yard TD pass to Shaheed.
Howden returned a fumble 86 yards for TD on first play of 4th quarter.
Saints converted 7-15 on third down, Giants 3-10
Giants’ first two drives: 16 plays, 129 yards, 14 points.
Giants rest of game: 53 plays, 207 yards, no points.
Giants are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Giants committed 5 turnovers, had 8 penalties for 95 yards.

Cowboys 37, Jets 22
Cowboys in first half: 32 plays, 298 yards, 23 points.
Dallas led 23-3 at halftime.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Dallas scored 40-40-37 in wins/tie, 20-14 in losses.
Jets are 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 6-19-1 ATS last 26 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 8-17-1 ATS last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Colts 40, Raiders 6
Indy went 3/out on their first five drive.
Colts’ next six drives: 47 plays, 295 yards, six TD’s.
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders drove 80 yards, kicked FG on their first drive.
Raiders’ next six drives: 26 plays, 121 yards, no points.
Las Vegas lost last four games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders are 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.

Commanders 27, Chargers 10
Washington’s first two drives: 8 plays, 30 yards, no points.
Washington’s next four drives: 27 plays, 177 yards, 20 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 7-3 ATS last 10 games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers’ first two drives: 18 plays, 119 yards, 10 points.
Chargers rest of game: 47 plays, 221 yards, no points.
QB Herbert has been sacked 16 times in Chargers’ first five games.
Chargers’ WR Keenan Allen caught his 1,000th career pass.

Lions 37, Bengals 24
Lions led 14-3 at halftime.
Detroit’s first two drives in 2nd half: 12 plays, 108 yards, 14 points.
Lions won last three games, scoring 52-38-34-37 points.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Bengals lost last three games, by a combined 113-37.
Lions are 12-2 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
 
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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
NFL QB’s who started in Week 5, who played at Oklahoma:
— Dillon Gabriel
— Jalen Hurts
— Baker Mayfield
— Kyler Murray
— Spencer Rattler
— Caleb Williams

Quote of the Day
“I feel very comfortable. It’s a fair question. We score 3 points in three games in the first half. I totally understand that. But right now, it’s going to remain the same.”
Bengals coach Zac Taylor, on his remaining the play caller

Tuesday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes’ father pitched for six different teams in his 11-year major league career; what did he spend the most time with (5 years)?

Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; they beat Texas in that series.

Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)

************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……​

— College football conference trends (in conference games):

American
Home teams 4-9 ATS
Favorites 9-4 ATS

ACC
Road teams 12-8 ATS

Big 18
Underdogs 12-7 ATS

Big X
Favorites 12-7 ATS

Conference USA
Home teams 5-2 ATS

Mid-American
Home teams 7-3 ATS

Mountain West
Home teams 3-4 ATS

SEC
Home underdogs 4-0 ATS
Home teams 11-5 ATS

Sun Belt
Home teams 9-1 ATS

— NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
Home teams 1-4 ATS divisional games
4-6 ATS non-divisional games

AFC North
4-11 ATS non-divisional games

AFC South
8-5 ATS non-divisional games

AFC West
6-7 ATS non-divisional games

NFC East
8-6 ATS non-divisional games

NFC North
7-5 ATS non-divisional games

NFC South
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3 ATS

NFC South
Home teams 0-4 ATS divisional games
7-5 ATS non-divisional games

— This is only the 4th time ever that every NFL team has a loss by Week 5.

Famous birthdays, October 7th:
José Cardenal, 82
Judy Landers, 67
Dylan Bakler, 66
Priest Holmes, 52
Omar Miller, 47
Evan Longoria, 40
Chase Daniel, 39
Mookie Betts, 33
Jesus Sanchez, 28
Tutu Atwell, 26

— NBA season starts in a couple weeks; NBA uses their preseason to market their game all over the world. Just this month, they’ll have games in:
Adu Dhabi
Australia
China
Puerto Rico
Vancouver, Canada
In regular season, they’ll have NBA games in England, Germany, Mexico City.

— White Sox IF Colson Montgomery hit 21 home runs this year in 71 games, the most home runs EVER by a player who didn’t hit a home run before the All-Star break.

— St Louis Cardinals are probably going to make big changes this winter:
2024: 83-79…….2,869,783 fans at home games (35,872/game)
2025: 78-84…….2,250,007 fans at home games (27,777/game)
Cardinals missed the playoffs the last three years; last time they missed the playoffs 4+ years in a row was 1988-95.

— Texas Rangers hired Skip Schumaker as their new manager; he went 84-78 managing the Marlins in 2023, then went 62-100 last year and he surprisingly resigned.

— Saturday night, Fresno State held off Nevada 20-17 in the Mountain West; Fresno held the ball for the last 8:42 of the game to preserve their win. 15 plays, 68 yards, no punts.

— Sunday in England, Dillon Gabriel was 41st quarterback to start for the Cleveland Browns, since 1999.

— Time flies; the NHL season starts tonight, with three games scheduled.
 
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