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[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 17 NFL spreads:
— Cowboys (-5.5) @ Washington
— Lions (-6) @ Minnesota
— Broncos (-12.5) @ Kansas City
— Texans @ Chargers (-1.5)
— Ravens @ Green Bay (-2.5)
— Steelers (-4.5) @ Cleveland

Quote of the Day
“You got to be able to choke someone out. We didn’t do that.”
Oregon football coach Dan Lanning; his Ducks led James Madison 34-6 at the half, wound up winning, 51-34.

Monday’s quiz
Which former NFL quarterback is the all-time leader in passing yardage for the Missouri Tigers?

Sunday’s quiz
Donovan McNabb was the Eagles’ QB, last time they won the NFC East in consecutive years.

Saturday’s quiz
On the old TV show Seinfeld, Jerry Stiller played George Costanza’s father.

******************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..​

— Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20
Just 2nd win for Carolina in their last 12 games vs Tampa Bay.
QB Young threw for 191 yards, two TD’s.
Panthers kicked a 48-yard FG with 2:20 left for the winning score.
Carolina now leads the NFC South by a game, with two weeks left.
Tampa Bay lost seven of its last nine games, after a 5-1 start.
Buccaneers lost their last three games by total of eight points.
Tampa Bay was 8-14 on third down, Carolina 6-12.
These teams play again in two weeks, in Tampa.

— Patriots 28, Ravens 24
New England has won 12 of last 13 games; they’re in playoffs.
Ravens led this game 24-13 in the fourth quarter.
QB Maye threw for 380 yards, two TD’s.
Patriots in 4th quarter: 22 plays, 181 yards, 14 points.
QB Jackson hurt his back in the second quarter, didn’t return.
RB Henry ran for 128 yards, 2 TD’s, but only had 18 carries.
Patriots outgained Baltimore, 453-330.
Ravens need two wins and Steelers to lose to Cleveland to win AFC North.

— Steelers 29, Lions 24
Detroit had two TD’s negated by offensive interference in last 0:30 of game.
Lions ran ball only 12 times, for 15 yards.
Steelers won their last three games, scoring 27-28-29 points.
Pittsburgh is 8-0 when it allows less than 25 points.
Steelers ran ball 27 times for 230 yards.
Game was 10-10 at half; Steelers got a safety in third quarter, led 12-10.
RB Warren carried ball 14 times for 143 yards, two TD’s.
Steelers WR Metcalf punched a fan in stands; he’ll hear from the league.

— Jaguars 34, Broncos 20
Jacksonville won their last six games, giving up 15.3 ppg.
Jaguars were 8-15 on third down, Denver 5-14.
QB Lawrence threw for 279 yards, 3 TD’s, also ran for a TD.
Right now, Jaguars are the #3-seed in the AFC.
Loss ends Denver’s 11-game winning streak.
QB Nix threw for 352 yards, but only one TD.
Broncos lead Chargers by a game in AFC West; they play in Week 18
Underdogs covered Denver’s last seven games.

— Titans 26, Chiefs 9
Backup QB Minshew tore his ACL, like Mahomes did last week.
#3 QB Oladokun was 11-16/111 passing, leading Chiefs to three FG’s.
Chiefs are 1-5 SU/ATS in last five road games.
Titans outgained Kansas City, 376-133.
Tennessee’s win snaps an 11-game home losing streak.
QB Ward threw for 228 yards and two TD’s.
Titans were 9-17 on third down, Kansas City 1-9.
Tennessee ran ball 40 times for 164 yards.

— Saints 29, Jets 6
Rookie QB Shough threw for 308 yards and a TD.
Saints are 4-2 in last six games, after a 1-8 start.
New Orleans outgained the Jets, 412-195.
Saints made 6 of 7 FG’s, scored two TD’s on 11 drives.
Jets first three drives: 18 plays, 88 yards, two FG’s.
Jets rest of game: 47 plays, 78 yards, two turnovers.
Jets lost their last three games, by 24-28-23 points.
Jets are 0-10 when they score less than 27 points.

— Famous birthdays, December 22nd:
Hector Elizondo, 89
Steve Carlton, 81
Dave Robisch, 76
Lonnie Smith, 70
Glenn Wilson, 67
Jason Lane, 49
Jacob Stallings, 36
Tyler Gilbert, 32

— Bills 23, Browns 20
Buffalo’s first three drives: 21 plays, 209 yards, 20 points.
Buffalo rest of the game: 30 plays, 48 yards, 3 points.
RB Cook ran for 117 yards, two TD’s.
Right now, Bills are the #6-seed in the AFC.
Cleveland turned ball over on three of its first six drives.
Cleveland was 8-14 on third down, Buffalo 2-8.
Cleveland lost four in row, 10 of its last 12 games.
Browns are 0-12 when they allow more than 10 points.

— Chargers 34, Cowboys 17
Chargers outgained Dallas 452-340, converted 7-11 on 3rd down.
QB Herbert threw for 300 yards, two TD’s.
Chargers won four in row, seven of their last eight games.
Chargers are 10-1 when they allow 21 or fewer points.
Dallas in first half: 32 plays, 216 yards, 17 points.
Dallas in second half: 25 plays, 131 yards, no points.
Cowboys lost their last three games, giving up 44-34-34 points.
Cowboys are 1-8 when they score less than 33 points.

— Vikings 16, Giants 13
QB McCarthy hurt his right hand just before halftime, didn’t return.
Total yardage in an ugly game: Vikings 240, Giants 141
Minnesota won its last three games, giving up 13 ppg.
Vikings converted 7-12 on third down, Giants 141
Giants’ only TD was a defensive score 0:17 before halftime.
Giants had only 13 passing yards; their first 15 plays were runs.
Giants lost their last nine games (3-6 ATS)
Giants are 5-10 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.

— Bengals 45, Dolphins 21
QB Burrow threw for 309 yards, four TD’s.
Cincinnati led 17-14 at halftime.
Bengals’ first 4 drives in second half: 21 plays, 174 yards, 28 points.
Cincinnati was 6-12 on third down, +3 in turnovers.
Miami turned ball over on 3 of first 4 drives in third quarter.
Rookie QB Ewers threw for 260 yards with two INTs in his first NFL start.
Dolphins are 0-9 when they allow 27+ points.
Miami is minus-16 in turnovers in losses, +11 in wins.

— Falcons 26, Cardinals 19
RB Robinson ran ball for 76 yards, had 92 receiving yards.
Robinson is first Falcon since 1999 with 2,000+ yards from scrimmage,
Atlanta is 3-2 in last five games, after a 3-7 start.
QB Cousins is 87-80-2 as an NFL starter, 10-10 with Falcons.
Arizona led this game 10-0 late in first quarter.
Cardinals lost seven in row, 12 of last 13 games.
Arizona is 0-9 when they allow more than 22 points.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS as a home underdog TY.

— Texans 23, Raiders 21
Houston won its last seven games (5-2 ATS)
Texans are game behind Jacksonville in AFC South.
Right now, Texans are #7-seed in the AFC.
Houston is 9-0 when they score 20+ points.
First score of day was a 31-yard pick-6 by Texans 4:17 into game.
Raiders outgained Houston 315-270; they ran ball for 145 yards,
Raiders have lost nine games in a row, 13 of last 14.
RB Jeanty ran ball for 128 yards and a TD.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Monday, December 22

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Monday’s game
Idaho Potato Bowl (@ Boise, ID)
Washington State vs Utah State (-1.5)
Washington State (6-6)
Wazzu allowed 13 or less points in all six of its wins.
Coogs are 0-5 when they allow more than 13 points.
Coogs are 2-0 vs Mountain West foes (San Diego St/Colorado St)
Coogs have 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
QB Potter was 23-30/208 in his first college start.


This game, Wazzu has an interim coach, Jesse Bobbit
Bobbit will be defensive coordinator at Iowa State next year.
Coogs are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Coogs are 3-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Last eight Wazzu games stayed under the total.
Wazzu lost its last four bowl games, giving up 34 ppg.


Utah State (5-5, 3-3)
Utah State lost four of its last six games.
Aggies are 4-0 when they allow less than 29 points.
Utah State has 2 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Aggies have 10 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Barnes has 3 career starts.


Utah State has covered nine of its 11 I-A games.
In his career, Mendenhall is 7-7 SU in bowl games.
Utah State is 3-1 ATS as a favorite this year
Aggies are 6-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Aggies lost three of their last four bowl games.
Utah State lost Potato Bowl 45-22 to Georgia State in 2023.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games overall.


Wazzu (-20.5) hammered Utah State 49-28 in Pullman LY.
Utah State (+17) upset the Coogs 26-23 in 2021.
These teams will be rivals in Pac-12 starting next year.
Last eight years, favorites are 5-3 ATS in Potato Bowl

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

 

[Udog]

NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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Tuesday, December 23

Toledo VS Louisville
Toledo is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games.
Toledo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 7 games played in December.
Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games played on a Tuesday.
Louisville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games.
Louisville is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games.
Louisville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Mid-American conference.

WKU VS Southern Miss
Western Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Western Kentucky's last 9 games.
Western Kentucky is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Kentucky's last 7 games against an opponent in the Sun Belt conference.
Southern Miss is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Miss' last 6 games.
Southern Miss is 7-13 SU in its last 20 games.
Southern Miss is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Conference USA conference.

UNLV VS Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas' last 5 games.
Nevada-Las Vegas is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas' last 5 games against an opponent in the Mid-American conference.
Nevada-Las Vegas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games played in December.
Ohio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Ohio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference.
Ohio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games played in December.

Wednesday, December 24

California VS Hawaii
California is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of California's last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of California's last 13 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California's last 5 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference.
Hawaii is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games.
Hawaii is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

Friday, December 26

Central Michigan VS Northwestern
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
Central Michigan is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
Central Michigan is 0-8 SU in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Central Michigan is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games played in December.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games.
Northwestern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Northwestern's last 16 games against an opponent in the Mid-American conference.
Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games played in December.

New Mexico VS Minnesota
New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Mexico's last 6 games.
New Mexico is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
New Mexico is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games played in December.
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.
Minnesota is 13-7 SU in its last 20 games.
Minnesota is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference.
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games played in December.

FIU VS UTSA
Florida International is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 6 games.
Florida International is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Florida International is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games against an opponent in the American Conference conference.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas-San Antonio's last 7 games.
Texas-San Antonio is 14-0 SU in its last 14 games against an opponent in the Conference USA conference.
Texas-San Antonio is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games against an opponent in the East Division division.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas-San Antonio's last 6 games played in December.

Saturday, December 27

Pittsburgh VS East Carolina
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games against an opponent in the American Conference conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games played in December.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of East Carolina's last 6 games.
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of East Carolina's last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
East Carolina is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games played on a Saturday.

Penn State VS Clemson
Penn State is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Penn State's last 6 games.
Penn State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games.
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
Clemson is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Clemson is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games played in December.
Clemson is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games played on a Saturday.

UCONN VS Army
Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 7 games.
Connecticut is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
Connecticut is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games against an opponent in the American Conference conference.
Army is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Army's last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Army's last 6 games against Connecticut.
Army is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.

Georgia Tech VS BYU
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 5 games.
Georgia Tech is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia Tech's last 6 games played in December.
Georgia Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games played on a Saturday.
Brigham Young is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Brigham Young is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games.
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brigham Young's last 7 games played in December.

Miami-OH VS Fresno State
Miami-OH is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
Miami-OH is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami-OH's last 13 games played in December.
Miami-OH is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games played on a Saturday.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games.
Fresno State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Fresno State's last 6 games against an opponent in the Mid-American conference.
Fresno State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games played in December.

North Texas VS San Diego State
North Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of North Texas' last 12 games.
North Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
North Texas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference.
San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego State's last 6 games.
San Diego State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego State's last 6 games played in December.

Virginia VS Missouri
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Virginia's last 8 games.
Virginia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Virginia's last 8 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games played in December.
Missouri is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Missouri's last 8 games.
Missouri is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games.
Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.

LSU VS Houston
Louisiana State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana State's last 5 games.
Louisiana State is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisiana State's last 7 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games played in December.


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[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 17 NFL spreads:
— Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Miami
— Seahawks (-7.5) @ Carolina
— Cardinals @ Cincinnati (-7)
— Giants @ Las Vegas (-1.5)
— Eagles @ Buffalo (-1.5)
— Bears @ San Francisco (-3)

Quote of the Day
“I try to do the job, not try to keep the job. My focus has been for the last 18 years here and the last 41 years in coaching is to try to do the best job I can today and fight as hard as I can so the guys have the best chance to be successful today.”
Ravens coach John Harbaugh

Tuesday’s quiz
Who coached the Baltimore Ravens before John Harbaugh?
(Hint: He won a Super Bowl)

Monday’s quiz
Former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel is the all-time leader in passing yardage for the Missouri Tigers.

Sunday’s quiz
Donovan McNabb was the Eagles’ QB, last time they won the NFC East in consecutive years.

******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— 49ers 48, Colts 27
49ers’ first four drives: 33 plays, 239 yards, 24 points.
San Francisco outgained the Colts, 440-312.
49ers won their last five games, all by 11+points.
TE Kittle caught seven passes for 115 yards and a TD.
Colts scored TDs on first two drives, but in between fumbled away a kickoff.
49ers were 7-11 on third down, Colts 5-1o.
Indy lost six of last seven games, after a 7-1 start.
44-year old QB Rivers threw for 277 yards, two TD’s.

— Steelers WR DK Metcalf got suspended two games for getting into a confrontation with a fan in Detroit Sunday; the suspension costs him $555,555 in salary.

— Kansas City Chiefs are moving from Missouri to Kansas; they’ll start playing in a new $3B domed stadium in 2031. The stadium is expected to seat 65,000 fans, about 10,000 less fans than Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs have played since 1972.

— Washington State 34, Utah State 21
QB Eckhaus threw for 334 yards, three TD’s.
Coogs outgained Utah State 628-254.
Wazzu ran ball 41 times for 255 yards.
Starting next year, these teams will be rivals in the Pac-12.

— NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
Non-divisional underdogs 13-10 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 9-8 ATS

AFC North
Non-divisional underdogs 10-15 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 8-11 ATS

AFC South
Non-divisional underdogs 17-10 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 7-6 ATS

AFC West
Non-divisional underdogs 10-6 ATS
Non-divisional road favorites 1-10 ATS

NFC East
Home teams 6-3 ATS divisional games
Non-divisional underdogs 8-13 ATS

NFC North
Non-divisional favorites 15-11 ATS
Non-divisional underdogs 5-8 ATS

NFC South
Underdogs 8-1 ATS divisional games
Non-divisional favorites 4-8 ATS

NFC West
Non-divisional favorites 20-8 ATS
Divisional home underdogs 0-4 ATS

— Famous birthdays, December 23rd:
Jerry Koosman, 83
Susan Lucci, 79
Jack Ham, 77
Joan Severance, 67
Paul Shirley, 48
Victor Martinez, 47
Hanley Ramirez, 42
Mitch Haniger, 35

— Boston Red Sox acquired 1B Willson Contreras from St Louis, in exchange for P Hunter Dobbins and two other pitching prospects. Contreras hit .257 with a .791 OPS last year; he figures to benefit from playing half his games in Fenway Park.

— A’s acquired 2B Jeff McNeil from the Mets, in exchange for a very young pitching prospect. McNeil won a batting title in 2022, but has slacked off the last two years, while playing in more of a utility role. Hopefully playing every day will boost his production.

— Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami got a 2-year deal worth $34M from the White Sox; he is expected to mostly DH and also play some first base.

— P Paul Blackburn signed for one year, $2M with Bronx; he has some incentives if he pitches a lot of innings. He had knee/shoulder issues last year with the Mets.

— USC/Notre Dame won’t be playing college football the next two years; Notre Dame is going to play BYU instead. USC didn’t want to play Notre Dame later in the year, so their agreement went up in smoke.

— There have been 30 coaching changes in I-A football so far this season, a little less than 25% of all the jobs there are.

— Of the 74 referees who have worked NBA games this season, 56 of them have also spent some time in their career working in the G-League.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Tuesday, December 23

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Tuesday’s games
Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo @ Louisville (-8.5)
Toledo (8-4)
Toledo won its last four games by a combined 125-15.
Rockets have only one loss by more than 8 points (7-28 @ Wazzu)
Toledo has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Rockets have 42 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gleason started 12 games LY.


Last three years, Toledo is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
In 10 years under coach Candle, Rockets are 10-12 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, Rockets are 8-5 ATS in non-conference games.
Toledo is 2-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
MAC non-conference underdogs are 21-17 ATS this year.


Louisville (8-4)
Louisville lost three of its last four games, after a 7-1 start.
Cardinals are 6-0 when they score 28+ points.
Cardinals have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Louisville has 203 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Moss started 10 games at USC


Louisville is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this year.
In his career, Brohm is 40-44 as a favorite.
Under Brohm, Cardinals are 11-15 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Brohm is 5-2 SU in bowl games.
Under is 6-2 in last eight Louisville games.
Louisville is 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in its last five bowls.
This year, ACC non-conference favorites are 13-18 ATS


These teams have not played in the last six years.
Toledo won this bowl 21-19 three years ago.
Last six years, underdogs are 4-2 ATS in the Boca Raton Bowl
This year, ACC teams are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS vs MAC opponents.


New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky (-1.5)
Southern Mississippi (7-5)
Southern Miss coach bolted to be the coach at Memphis
USM lost its last three games, giving up 41-42-28 points.
7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
101 starts back on offensive line (mostly all transfers).
senior QB is a transfer from Marshall


This year, Southern Miss is 1-2 ATS as an underdog.
Golden Eagles are 3-5-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Under is 3-1 in Golden Eagles last four games.
Southern Miss is playing its first bowl in three years.
Southern Miss is 2-3 SU in its last five bowl games.
Sun Belt non-conference underdogs are 12-17 ATS this year.


Western Kentucky (2-0)
WKU lost its last two games, by 3-3 points, after an 8-2 start.
WKU gave up 435+ TY in five of its last seven games.
Hilltoppers have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
WKU has 58 starts back on offensive line- lot of transfers.
Frosh QB Tisdale has thrown for 1,367 yards (9 TD’s, 6 INTs)


WKU is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year.
WKU is 5-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Hilltoppers are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Under is 6-3 in last nine WKU games.
Hilltoppers won three of last four bowls, scoring 39.5 ppg.


These teams haven’t met in the last six years.
This year, Sun Belt teams are 8-5 SU/ATS vs C-USA opponents.
Underdogs are 2-0-1 ATS in last three New Orleans Bowls.


Frisco Bowl (@ Frisco, TX)
UNLV (-7) @ Ohio U
UNLV (10-3)
UNLV is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 6-0 start.
In their losses, Rebels gave up 56-40-38 points.
UNLV has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
Rebels have 37 starts returning on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Junior QB Colandrea started 11 games at Virginia LY.


This year, Rebels are 6-3 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Mullen is 57-44-1 ATS as a favorite.
UNLV is 3-5 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
UNLV is ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Rebels won three of their last five bowl games.
In his career, Mullen is 7-3 SU in bowl games.
Under is 4-1 in UNLV’s last five games.
Mountain West non-conference favorites are 7-6 ATS


Ohio U (8-4)
Ohio U’s coach got fired a few days ago (off-field reasons)
Bobcats won five of their last six games, scoring 31 ppg.
Last three games, Ohio U ran ball for 313 yards/game.
Bobcats have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Bobcats have 57 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Navarro has thrown for 2,169 yards (12 TD’s, 10 INTs)


Ohio U is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
Bobcats are 3-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Bobcats are 4-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last five games, Ohio is minus-3 in turnovers.
Bobcats are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.


These teams haven’t met in the last six years.
Mountain West teams are 3-1 SU/ATS vs MAC teams this year.
Favorites are 5-4 ATS in last nine Frisco Bowls.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday, December 23​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TOL at LOU	02:00 PM	TOL +11.5***** U 44.5*****	+500 +500
WKU at USM	05:30 PM	WKU +1.5*****	+500
UNLV at OHIO	09:00 PM	UNLV -6.5***** U 65.5*****	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP GAME !

12/23/2025.................4 - 1 - 0.......................80.00%....................+ 14 .50
12/20/2025.................1 - 4 - 0.......................20.00%....................- 17.00
12/19/2025.................1 - 3 - 0......................25.00%.....................- 11.50
12/18/2025.................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/17/2025.................4 - 0 - 0.....................100.00%....................+ 20.00
12/16/2025................ 0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%.....................- 11.00
12/13/2025..................2 - 3 - 0......................40.00%....................- 6.50
12/06/2025..................9 - 2 - 0......................81.81%.....................+ 36.00
12/05/2025..................4 - 1 - 0......................66.66%.....................+ 9.00

TOTALS.....................25 - 18 - 0......................64.10%......................+ 22.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Villanova 64, Seton Hall 56- Wildcats shot 10-23 on arc in Big East opener.
— St John’s 85, Harvard 59- Red Storm out-rebounded Harvard, 39-22.
— Cal-Bakersfield 64, Idaho 63- Roadrunners won despite being 3-8 on foul line.
— Campbell 102, Green Bay 79- Camels shot 14-24 on arc, scored a ridiculous 1.54 ppp
— UCLA 97, Cal-Riverside 65- Bruins are 10-3, but only 3-3 vs top 100 teams.
— UCF 85, Florida Atlantic 80- 11-1 Knights were down 14 in the first half.

Quote of the Day
“No one felt worse than I did after that game. And I think it’s important to continue to move forward and realize that it’s what happened. It would be crazy of me to deny the truth of what happened and to live in this reality where if I tried to block it out, I don’t think that’s doing any good.”
Chargers QB Justin Herbert; Chargers play Houston this week

Wednesday’s quiz
In an episode of the old TV show Magnum PI, which actor, who played one of the more popular villains in the Batman TV show, played a jewel thief whose daughter was also a jewel thief?

Tuesday’s quiz
Brian Billick coached the Baltimore Ravens before John Harbaugh.

Monday’s quiz
Former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel is the all-time leader in passing yardage for the Missouri Tigers.

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Wednesday’s Den: 20 of my favorite non-sports movies…….​

20) The Gambler (2014)— Remake of a James Caan movie from the mid-70’s. College professor (Mark Wahlberg) seems to have an excellent life, but he has a huge gambling problem which drags him down. John Goodman plays one of the people he owes money to; he is very good in this. Jessica Lange plays the gambler’s mother, Brie Larson is his student/girlfriend.

19) Moon Over Parador (1988)— Richard Dreyfuss is an actor who is hired to stand in for the dictator of a Latin American country who suddenly dies. Jonathan Winters is a weird CIA agent whose wife is Polly Holliday, who played Flo in the old TV series Alice.
Sonia Braga, Raul Julia, Sammy Davis Jr and Dana Delany are all in this movie.

18) The Verdict (1982)— Paul Newman is a ambulance-chasing lawyer who started drinking too much when his marriage ended; he is handed a winning case that should be lucrative, but winning it is easier said than done. His friend is played by Jack Warden, one of my all-time favorites.
James Mason, Bruce Willis are also in this movie, which is a little dated now; no cellphones. The lawyer plays a pinball machine in the bar he frequents, but it is a very good movie.

17) Double Jeopardy (1999)— Unjustly jailed for her husband’s murder, a woman does six years in jail, until she gets paroled and realizes that the husband isn’t dead, so she sets out to find him and her son, who it turns out have moved to New Orleans.
Ashley Judd is the woman, Tommy Lee Jones is her parole officer, Bruce Greenwood is the grifter husband, Roma Maffia is a woman in jail who advises the woman on the best way to get paroled. Movie is a little intense, but it is very good.

16) Autumn in New York (2000)— Mostly a sad movie about a terminally ill young woman who falls for an aging playboy who owns a restaurant; when he finds out she is very ill, the playboy tries everything he can do to find a doctor who can help her get better.
Winona Ryder is the young woman, Richard Gere is the playboy, JK Simmons is the surgeon. Anthony LaPaglia, Jill Hennessy, Sherry Stringfield, Vera Farmiga are also in the movie, which is very good, but you’ll need a handkerchief.

15) Searching for Bobby Fischer (1993)— Joe Mantegna plays a sportswriter who realizes that his 7-year old son is a chess prodigy; no one knows how/why. The parents hire a chess teacher and he begins to win tournaments, but then expectations get very high, and the kid’s interest begins to die down.
Excellent cast: Mantegna, Joan Allen is the mom, Ben Kingsley is the chess coach, Laurence Fishburne is a guy who plays speed chess in the park and who also coaches the kid. William H Macy, David Paymer, Josh Mostel are also in the movie, which is very good.

14) Good Will Hunting (1997)— A janitor at MIT can do complicated math problems better than the professors can, but he also has a criminal record, and has to get counseling for that. Robin Williams is great as the counselor, Matt Damon is the smart guy.
Ben Affleck is one of the smart guy’s friends, Minnie Driver is the smart guy’s girlfriend, but the scenes with Wiliams/Damon are epic. One of Robin Williams’ finest roles.

13) Dave (1993)— Guy who looks just like the President runs a temp job service in Washington; when the real president has a stroke while screwing around with his mistress, the guy (Kevin Kline) is hired as the stand-in president. Sigourney Weaver is the First Lady.
Frank Langella/Kevin Dunn are in the President’s cabinet, Ving Rhames is a Secret Service agent who protects the President. Charles Grodin is great in his smaller role as a friend of the look-alike, who wins up help balancing the country’s budget.

12) Begin Again (2013)— Down-and-out music executive stumbles into a Manhattan bar and discovers a young singer who can resurrect his career.
Keira Knightley is the singer, Adam Levine is her boyfriend, a popular musician who screws around on her and gets the boot. Mark Ruffalo is the music executive, and James Corden kind of steals the show as the singer’s old friend from back in England.
Hailee Steinfeld (Mrs Josh Allen these days) plays Ruffalo’s daughter, Catherine Keener is his wife. Rob Morrow, CeeLo Green are also in this movie, mostly a nice movie.

10) The Big Short (2015)— Group of investors bet against the US mortgage market in 2006-07 and are surprised to find out that the market is flawed/corrupt.
One investor is an eccentric ex-doctor who controls billions of dollars and basically risks it all to make even more money, but it it is going to take time, and the people whose money he works with are not terribly patient.
Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Steve Carell, Marisa Tomei are all in this movie. Michael Lewis wrote the book, same guy who wrote Moneyball.

9) Absence of Malice (1981)— Sally Field plays a reporter who investigates a liquor wholesaler who is suspected of a murder- his father had been a mobster. There is no evidence that the son is guilty, but the authorities want to pressure him into giving them information.
The wholesaler has an iron-clad excuse that guarantees his innocence, but he won’t use it because he’d have to tell the authorities that a female friend of his had an abortion and 45 years ago, that wasn’t something you wanted to be known.
The wholesaler turns the tables on the authorities and makes them look incompetent.
Paul Newman is the wholesaler; with Sally Field, Willard Brimley, an intense, very good movie.

8) Leap of Faith (1992)— Steve Martin plays a traveling preacher whose bus breaks down, stranding his crew in a drought-stricken Kansas town. Miracles ensue. Liam Neeson, Debra Winger, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Meat Loaf are all in this cast.
The preacher is a fraud, but people come out and give him a lot of money; the town where his bus breaks down is going through a drought— people want to know is he can make it rain.
There is one great scene near the end of the movie where kid who had been crippled in a car accident wants the preacher to heal his legs. It makes the movie worth watching.

7) Fabulous Baker Boys (1989)— Two piano-playing brothers have an act that is struggling, so they hire a beautiful singer to join the show, and they suddenly become more popular.
Jeff/Beau Bridges are the brothers, Michelle Pfeiffer is the singer; when one brother and the singer start messing around, tensions run high, even though the group is doing very well on stage.
Very good movie, but then again, I’d watch a movie if it was Michelle Pfeiffer reading names out of the phone book.

6) Molly’s Game (2017)— Young woman runs high stakes poker games for celebrities/rich guys, but when members of the Russian mob enter the game, things get complicated. This is a true story, and as we’re learning nowadays, real life is often stranger than fiction.
This movie comes after the book was written; Jessica Chastain plays Molly, Idris Elba is her lawyer, Kevin Costner has a smaller role as her demanding father.

5) Lost In Translation (2003)— Bill Murray plays a washed-up actor who is in Tokyo getting paid $2M to do a whiskey commercial. He meets Scarlett Johansson in the hotel bar and they become friends.
Apparently every American visiting Tokyo stays in the same hotel; the actor/woman, whose husband is a photographer who largely ignores her, they become friends and go out to dinner and have probing conversations, all platonic.
It is a nice movie with a vague but I think happy ending.

4) Rounders (1998)— Law student decides he’d rather play high stakes poker than finish law school. The scenes with Matt Damon and his law professor (Martin Landau) are excellent. Same guys who wrote this movie wrote the great Showtime series Billions.
Edward Norton is excellent as a grifter/degenerate gambler who often tries to cheat at cards; he gets himself and the law student beaten up. John Malkovich is a Russian who runs the poker room where a lot of the games are played. John Turturro plays Joey Knish, a veteran gambler who grinds out a living the hard way, but he does it.
This is a very good movie.

3) The Bodyguard (1992)— Whitney Houston is a famous singer with a contract on her head; Kevin Costner is the ex-Secret Service hired to protect her.
Protecting a famous singer is a lot different than protecting a politician; there is tension between the singer/bodyguard, but when the singer’s young son almost gets murdered, she listens to the bodyguard and they wind up OK.
Lot of good music in this movie; when Whitney Houston passed way in real life, Kevin Costner spoked at her memorial service.

2) Last Vegas (2013)— Four old friends get together in Las Vegas for the bachelor party of the one bachelor in group (Michael Douglas) who is marrying a woman 40 years younger than him. It is Douglas, Robert Deniro, Morgan Freeman, Kevin Kline. Mary Steenburgen plays a singer in a Las Vegas bar who crosses paths with the friends.

Morgan Freeman’s character won $87,000 playing blackjack in this movie; in The Hangover, the one guy wins $85,000 playing blackjack, so on one of my trips to Las Vegas, I sat down at a table and suggested that blackjack must be an easy game, since so many people win a lot of money in the movies. I got a dirty look, a scowl and I shut up and was glad to break even.

1) A Few Good Men (1992)— Tom Cruise, Demi Moore, Jack Nicholson ate the stars; Kevin Bacon, Kiefer Sutherland, Kevin Pollak, JT Walsh as supporting actors is pretty strong.

A military lawyer tries to prove that two Marines charged with murdering a fellow Marine were simply following their commander’s orders. The last scene, with Jack Nicholson on the witness stand, is tremendous.