CNOTES MLB PLAYOFFS THRU THE WORLD SERIES NEWS,TRENDS,PICKS !
- Thread starter Cnotes53
- Start date
ALCS & NLCS RECORD:
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......12-6-0.......66.66%.....+28.25
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......12-6-0.......66.66%.....+28.25
Friday?s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
421? Allen Robinson, Chi
403? Stefon Diggs, Buff
403? DK Metcalf, Sea
401? Amari Cooper, Dal
397? DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
387? Terry McLaurin, Wash
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,497
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
?Having length is an advantage and I?ve always been pretty long, but I felt like there was room to ? I think what I want to do is at least know that I have it if I need it. I?m not going to try to do it all the time, I?m not trying to get my ball speed into the 190s every time I hit a driver, but at least I know that if I need to do it, I can do it.?
Golfer Rory McIlroy
Friday?s quiz
Which starting QB in the NFL played his college football at Boston College?
Thursday?s quiz
Seattle Mariners are the only major league team is the only one that has never played in a World Series.
Wednesday?s quiz
Six major league teams have never won a World Series.
*********************
Friday?s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind??..
13) How would you like to be a fly on the wall at Nick Saban?s house Saturday night, when he is in quarantine while Alabama plays Georgia in the week?s biggest college football game?
Saban and the Alabama AD both tested positive for COVID, so he is stuck at home for a while, and the rules say coaches in the booth cannot communicate with outside places while the game is going on. Hopefully, Mrs Saban takes the dog for a long walk and gives Nick some space.
Part of me says there is no way Saban isn?t texting some student manager and having the kid deliver messages to Steve Sarkisian.
Semi-related side note: Alabama?s basketball coach Nate Oats said Thursday that he had COVID back in July.
12) News Item of the Day: Utah Jazz hired Sergi Olivia away from the 76ers? front office, to join their coaching staff. Olivia had been the Vice President of Strategy for the Sixers.
This isn?t really big news, but that is a tremendous job title; Vice President of Strategy
I?ve been retired from my job for almost six years now, but I?ve worked in basketball analytics in both college/high school basketball? I?d love to be someone?s Vice President of Strategy. It just sounds so freakin? important.
11) A new casino that is rumored to have an excellent sportsbook will open in downtown Las Vegas October 28; the Circa will be a 2-story casino with a 3-story sportsbook. It appears as if the top level of the sports ook is a very large swimming pool in front of huge TV screens. They?re billing it as the biggest sportsbook in Las Vegas history.
10) Jets dump RB Le?Veon Bell and the Chiefs jump in and sign him; problem is, Bell hasn?t been a productive player for quite a while. He?s out of excuses now; he better produce in that offense, or his career is history.
9) In September, $748.5M, that?s million with an M, was wagered on sports in New Jersey.
8) Houston Rockets let GM Daryl Morey resign Thursday, rather than fire him- guys don?t quit jobs like that unless they?re jumping to another lucrative gig.
Morey is an MIT graduate, an analytics guy who sparked a rift between the NBA and Chinese government when he tweeted support for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong about this time last year. That cost the NBA a boatload of money in China, and money talks, so Morey walks.
7) Indiana Pacers have never won an NBA title, but four of their head coaches have, three of them after they left Indiana, one before he got there:
? Jack Ramsay, Portland
? Larry Brown, Detroit
? Rick Carlisle, Dallas
? Frank Vogel, Lakers
6) White Sox are interviewing 76-year old Tony Larussa for their open managing job; he last managed in the majors with St Louis, in 2011. He started as a manager with the White Sox way back in 1979.
5) Just when I thought ESPN couldn?t be more annoying, they?re starting to show football games from Newman HS in Louisiana, because Peyton Manning?s nephew is the QB there- the kid is in 10th grade, let him be a kid. He doesn?t need his games shown on national TV.
4) Arkansas State 59, Georgia State 52:
? Said this yesterday; ESPN needs to show more Sun Belt football.
? Arkansas State plays two QB?s; in their last two games, they?re a combined 61-97 for 968 yards and 14 TD?s throwing the ball.
? Total yardage in this game: 609-583, ASU
3) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-2)
? Carlos Correa hit a walk-off homer, series is 3-2 Tampa Bay.
? First five pitchers Houston used in this game are rookies.
2) Braves 10, Dodgers 2 (Atlanta leads 3-1):
? Atlanta broke open a 1-1 tie with six runs in 6th inning.
? Bryse Wilson allowed one hit, one run in six outstanding innings.
? Marcell Ozuna homered twice for the Braves.
1) Before I go, let me settle an argument; Michael Jordan isn?t the best basketball player ever, and neither is Lebron James, though they?re both in the top five.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the best basketball player ever; after his freshman season at UCLA, when the Bruins? freshman team beat the UCLA varsity by 20, the NCAA outlawed the dunk, a ban that lasted for ten years. (Freshman weren?t allowed on the varsity back then)
When Kareem was a rookie in the NBA with Milwaukee, the Bucks went 56-26 and lost in the Eastern Conference final- it was their 2nd year of existence- they won the NBA title the next year. Kareem may not have a big personality or be the face of a shoe company, but he was the most dominant basketball player ever.
NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
421? Allen Robinson, Chi
403? Stefon Diggs, Buff
403? DK Metcalf, Sea
401? Amari Cooper, Dal
397? DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
387? Terry McLaurin, Wash
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,497
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
?Having length is an advantage and I?ve always been pretty long, but I felt like there was room to ? I think what I want to do is at least know that I have it if I need it. I?m not going to try to do it all the time, I?m not trying to get my ball speed into the 190s every time I hit a driver, but at least I know that if I need to do it, I can do it.?
Golfer Rory McIlroy
Friday?s quiz
Which starting QB in the NFL played his college football at Boston College?
Thursday?s quiz
Seattle Mariners are the only major league team is the only one that has never played in a World Series.
Wednesday?s quiz
Six major league teams have never won a World Series.
*********************
Friday?s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind??..
13) How would you like to be a fly on the wall at Nick Saban?s house Saturday night, when he is in quarantine while Alabama plays Georgia in the week?s biggest college football game?
Saban and the Alabama AD both tested positive for COVID, so he is stuck at home for a while, and the rules say coaches in the booth cannot communicate with outside places while the game is going on. Hopefully, Mrs Saban takes the dog for a long walk and gives Nick some space.
Part of me says there is no way Saban isn?t texting some student manager and having the kid deliver messages to Steve Sarkisian.
Semi-related side note: Alabama?s basketball coach Nate Oats said Thursday that he had COVID back in July.
12) News Item of the Day: Utah Jazz hired Sergi Olivia away from the 76ers? front office, to join their coaching staff. Olivia had been the Vice President of Strategy for the Sixers.
This isn?t really big news, but that is a tremendous job title; Vice President of Strategy
I?ve been retired from my job for almost six years now, but I?ve worked in basketball analytics in both college/high school basketball? I?d love to be someone?s Vice President of Strategy. It just sounds so freakin? important.
11) A new casino that is rumored to have an excellent sportsbook will open in downtown Las Vegas October 28; the Circa will be a 2-story casino with a 3-story sportsbook. It appears as if the top level of the sports ook is a very large swimming pool in front of huge TV screens. They?re billing it as the biggest sportsbook in Las Vegas history.
10) Jets dump RB Le?Veon Bell and the Chiefs jump in and sign him; problem is, Bell hasn?t been a productive player for quite a while. He?s out of excuses now; he better produce in that offense, or his career is history.
9) In September, $748.5M, that?s million with an M, was wagered on sports in New Jersey.
8) Houston Rockets let GM Daryl Morey resign Thursday, rather than fire him- guys don?t quit jobs like that unless they?re jumping to another lucrative gig.
Morey is an MIT graduate, an analytics guy who sparked a rift between the NBA and Chinese government when he tweeted support for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong about this time last year. That cost the NBA a boatload of money in China, and money talks, so Morey walks.
7) Indiana Pacers have never won an NBA title, but four of their head coaches have, three of them after they left Indiana, one before he got there:
? Jack Ramsay, Portland
? Larry Brown, Detroit
? Rick Carlisle, Dallas
? Frank Vogel, Lakers
6) White Sox are interviewing 76-year old Tony Larussa for their open managing job; he last managed in the majors with St Louis, in 2011. He started as a manager with the White Sox way back in 1979.
5) Just when I thought ESPN couldn?t be more annoying, they?re starting to show football games from Newman HS in Louisiana, because Peyton Manning?s nephew is the QB there- the kid is in 10th grade, let him be a kid. He doesn?t need his games shown on national TV.
4) Arkansas State 59, Georgia State 52:
? Said this yesterday; ESPN needs to show more Sun Belt football.
? Arkansas State plays two QB?s; in their last two games, they?re a combined 61-97 for 968 yards and 14 TD?s throwing the ball.
? Total yardage in this game: 609-583, ASU
3) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-2)
? Carlos Correa hit a walk-off homer, series is 3-2 Tampa Bay.
? First five pitchers Houston used in this game are rookies.
2) Braves 10, Dodgers 2 (Atlanta leads 3-1):
? Atlanta broke open a 1-1 tie with six runs in 6th inning.
? Bryse Wilson allowed one hit, one run in six outstanding innings.
? Marcell Ozuna homered twice for the Braves.
1) Before I go, let me settle an argument; Michael Jordan isn?t the best basketball player ever, and neither is Lebron James, though they?re both in the top five.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the best basketball player ever; after his freshman season at UCLA, when the Bruins? freshman team beat the UCLA varsity by 20, the NCAA outlawed the dunk, a ban that lasted for ten years. (Freshman weren?t allowed on the varsity back then)
When Kareem was a rookie in the NBA with Milwaukee, the Bucks went 56-26 and lost in the Eastern Conference final- it was their 2nd year of existence- they won the NBA title the next year. Kareem may not have a big personality or be the face of a shoe company, but he was the most dominant basketball player ever.
Last edited:
MLB public betting, line movement October 16
Patrick Everson
Mookie Betts and the Dodgers are in a 3-1 NLCS hole and a must-win situation for Friday night's Game 5 against the Braves. Most sportsbooks didn't post a Game 5 moneyline Thursday night.
MLB betting odds provide two pivotal games once again, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Friday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a must-win Game 5 against the Atlanta Braves, and ditto for the resilient Houston Astros in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday?s games.
MLB line movement
Atlanta had a six-run sixth-inning outburst en route to a 10-2 Game 4 victory over Clayton Kershaw and Los Angeles on Thursday, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. With starters not yet set for Friday?s 9:08 p.m. ET Game 5, most sportsbooks didn?t post a line Thursday night.
Tampa Bay won the first three games of the ALCS, but is now in a dogfight after two straight losses. In Game 5 Thursday, Carlos Correa hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the ninth inning to give defending AL champion Houston a 4-3 victory.
Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 6 at Rays -130/Astros +120, and there was no movement Thursday night for Friday?s 6:07 p.m. ET first pitch. The total of 8 also didn?t move Thursday night.
MLB public betting
The consensus, often indicative of public play, showed a modest lean toward Tampa Bay late Thursday night. The Rays were landing 54 percent of early picks, while the total had 58 percent of early picks on the Under.
*****************************
901HOUSTON -902 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 27-36 SU (-13.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
903LA DODGERS -904 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 8-0 SU (8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite in the current season.
MLB
Dunkel
Friday, October 16
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Game 901-902
October 16, 2020 @ 6:07 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 15.791
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under
LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
Game 903-904
October 16, 2020 @ 9:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(May) 17.276
Atlanta
(TBD) 18.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A
MLB
Long Sheet
Friday, October 16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (36 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 24) - 6:07 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 36-35 (-8.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 48-24 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-6 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 24-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.0 Units)
FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)
BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA DODGERS (49 - 20) vs. ATLANTA (43 - 26) - 9:08 PM
DUSTIN MAY (R) vs. JOSH TOMLIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+3.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)
DUSTIN MAY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.
JOSH TOMLIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
TOMLIN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, October 16
Best-of-7 series
Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-2) (@ San Diego)
Valdez is 4-1, 1.72 in his last five starts.
? Houston is 9-5 in his starts this season.
? Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts.
? Valdez is 2-1, 3.00 in three playoff games (2 starts).
? He gave up two runs in six IP in his first start vs Tampa Bay.
? Astros scored total of 13 runs in first five games in this series.
? Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
? Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.
? Astros are 16-27 on road this season.
Snell is 4-1, 2.53 in his last six starts.
? Rays are 9-5 in his starts this season.
? Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
? Snell is 2-1, 2.57 in six playoff games (4 starts).
? He is 3-2, 4.58 in seven career starts vs Houston.
? Tampa Bay won eight of its 12 playoff games, but lost last two.
? Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
? Tampa Bay is 28-15 away from home this season.
? Under is 9-3 in their playoff games.
? Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.
National League
Atlanta (3-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Sounds like a bullpen game
? Braves won eight of their first nine playoff games.
? Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
? Braves are 24-15 away from home this season.
? Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
May hasn?t allowed a run in his last 8.2 IP, but they were spread out over four stints. He?s been an opener, a reliever; he may be asked to go longer here, if he does well.
? He?s allowed one run in 8 IP in five playoff games (1 start).
? He?s allowed four runs in 3.2 IP in two games vs Atlanta.
? Dodgers are 49-20 this year, but 1-3 this week.
? Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
? LA is 28-11 away from home this season.
? Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
MLB
Friday, October 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Patrick Everson
Mookie Betts and the Dodgers are in a 3-1 NLCS hole and a must-win situation for Friday night's Game 5 against the Braves. Most sportsbooks didn't post a Game 5 moneyline Thursday night.
MLB betting odds provide two pivotal games once again, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Friday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a must-win Game 5 against the Atlanta Braves, and ditto for the resilient Houston Astros in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday?s games.
MLB line movement
Atlanta had a six-run sixth-inning outburst en route to a 10-2 Game 4 victory over Clayton Kershaw and Los Angeles on Thursday, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. With starters not yet set for Friday?s 9:08 p.m. ET Game 5, most sportsbooks didn?t post a line Thursday night.
Tampa Bay won the first three games of the ALCS, but is now in a dogfight after two straight losses. In Game 5 Thursday, Carlos Correa hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the ninth inning to give defending AL champion Houston a 4-3 victory.
Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 6 at Rays -130/Astros +120, and there was no movement Thursday night for Friday?s 6:07 p.m. ET first pitch. The total of 8 also didn?t move Thursday night.
MLB public betting
The consensus, often indicative of public play, showed a modest lean toward Tampa Bay late Thursday night. The Rays were landing 54 percent of early picks, while the total had 58 percent of early picks on the Under.
*****************************
901HOUSTON -902 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 27-36 SU (-13.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
903LA DODGERS -904 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 8-0 SU (8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite in the current season.
MLB
Dunkel
Friday, October 16
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Game 901-902
October 16, 2020 @ 6:07 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 15.791
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under
LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
Game 903-904
October 16, 2020 @ 9:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(May) 17.276
Atlanta
(TBD) 18.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A
MLB
Long Sheet
Friday, October 16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (36 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 24) - 6:07 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 36-35 (-8.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 48-24 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-6 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 24-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.0 Units)
FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)
BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA DODGERS (49 - 20) vs. ATLANTA (43 - 26) - 9:08 PM
DUSTIN MAY (R) vs. JOSH TOMLIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+3.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)
DUSTIN MAY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.
JOSH TOMLIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
TOMLIN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, October 16
Best-of-7 series
Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-2) (@ San Diego)
Valdez is 4-1, 1.72 in his last five starts.
? Houston is 9-5 in his starts this season.
? Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts.
? Valdez is 2-1, 3.00 in three playoff games (2 starts).
? He gave up two runs in six IP in his first start vs Tampa Bay.
? Astros scored total of 13 runs in first five games in this series.
? Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
? Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.
? Astros are 16-27 on road this season.
Snell is 4-1, 2.53 in his last six starts.
? Rays are 9-5 in his starts this season.
? Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
? Snell is 2-1, 2.57 in six playoff games (4 starts).
? He is 3-2, 4.58 in seven career starts vs Houston.
? Tampa Bay won eight of its 12 playoff games, but lost last two.
? Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
? Tampa Bay is 28-15 away from home this season.
? Under is 9-3 in their playoff games.
? Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.
National League
Atlanta (3-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Sounds like a bullpen game
? Braves won eight of their first nine playoff games.
? Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
? Braves are 24-15 away from home this season.
? Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
May hasn?t allowed a run in his last 8.2 IP, but they were spread out over four stints. He?s been an opener, a reliever; he may be asked to go longer here, if he does well.
? He?s allowed one run in 8 IP in five playoff games (1 start).
? He?s allowed four runs in 3.2 IP in two games vs Atlanta.
? Dodgers are 49-20 this year, but 1-3 this week.
? Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
? LA is 28-11 away from home this season.
? Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
MLB
Friday, October 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
ALCS & NLCS RECORD:
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......14-8-0.......63.63%.....+28.50
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......14-8-0.......63.63%.....+28.50
ALCS & NLCS RECORD:
10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......15-9-0.......62.50%.....+28.25
10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......15-9-0.......62.50%.....+28.25
MLB line movement October 18
Patrick Everson
The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.
MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.
The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday?s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.
MLB line movement
The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.
Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles? starter wasn?t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.
*******************************
MLB
Dunkel
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Game 909-910
October 18, 2020 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.960
LA Dodgers
(TBD) 19.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-140); Over
MLB
Sunday, October 18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
Long Sheet
Sunday, October 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (43 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (51 - 20) - 8:15 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 30-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-28 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday this season.
ATLANTA is 78-64 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 110-77 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-3 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)
IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
TONY GONSOLIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.321.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
909ATLANTA -910 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-26 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
Patrick Everson
The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.
MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.
The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday?s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.
MLB line movement
The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.
Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles? starter wasn?t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.
*******************************
MLB
Dunkel
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Game 909-910
October 18, 2020 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.960
LA Dodgers
(TBD) 19.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-140); Over
MLB
Sunday, October 18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
Long Sheet
Sunday, October 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (43 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (51 - 20) - 8:15 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 30-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-28 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday this season.
ATLANTA is 78-64 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 110-77 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-3 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)
IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
TONY GONSOLIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.321.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
909ATLANTA -910 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-26 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES
10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......17-9-0.......65.38%.....+38.25
10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......17-9-0.......65.38%.....+38.25
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,257
- 25
- 48
Tuesday?s 6-pack
Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:
? Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
? Browns (-3.5) @ Bengals
? Cowboys (-3) @ Redskins
? Lions @ Falcons (-3)
? Panthers @ Saints (-7.5)
? Bills (-12.5) @ Jets
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,020
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
?Everybody could have done one more thing to help us get this win. That?s all of us. That?s the coaches and the players. Everyone has gotta be accountable to that.?
Bengals coach Zac Taylor
Tuesday?s quiz
Who did the Tampa Bay Rays play in their other World Series appearance?
Monday?s quiz
Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.
Sunday?s quiz
Nick Saban coached LSU, before he went to coach the Miami Dolphins for two seasons.
********************************************
Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??..
13) Chiefs 26, Buffalo 17
? Chiefs won all three of their road games, 2by 3-14-9 points.
? KC is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games following a SU loss.
? Under is 4-1-1 in their games this season.
? Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
? Buffalo lost its last two games, giving up 68 points, after a 4-0 start.
? Buffalo is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.
? Game was played on a rainy, cruddy night in western New York.
? Chiefs ran the football for 245 yards; they outgained Buffalo, 466-206.
12) Cardinals 38, Dallas 10:
? Arizona?s first three drives: 16 plays, 23 yards, three punts.
? Redbirds? next four drives: 26 plays, 240 yards, four TD?s.
? Arizona ran the ball for 261 yards.
? Cardinals scored 38 points despite Murray completing 9-24 passes.
? Arizona is 3-1 on the road this season.
? Last five games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34-38 points.
? Ezekiel Elliott lost fumbles on two of his first eight touches.
? With 11:30 left in 3rd quarter, play-by-play guy said that Dallas lacked enthusiasm, a nice way of saying they quit. No one disagreed with him.
? NFC East teams are 4-14 ATS outside their division, 1-9 at home.
11) Why did Red Sox trade Mookie Betts? Isn?t it good to have great players on your team?
10) Last three Georgia-Alabama games, Dawgs led all three games at halftime, then got outscored by a combined 68-17 in second half and lost all three.
9) Tennessee Vols signed a new defensive line coach to a 2-year contract this year, but they fired the guy Sunday, after only four games. Must be an interesting story there.
8) Social media flipped out Saturday night, when Tampa Bay took starter Charlie Morton out of the game despite Morton having thrown only 66 pitches. Everything worked out and the Rays won, but analytics people are obsessed with the idea that facing hitters a third time in a game is a bad idea, even if the pitcher doing it is way better than the reliever.
Thats part of what makes life interesting, different ideas being debated.
7) When the Tampa Bay Rays won the American League in 2008, it was also their first-ever winning season; they became a franchise in 1998. Starting in ?08, they?ve been over .500 nine of the last 13 years.
6) Of the 32 current NFL head coaches, 11 of them were also head coaches at a previous stop.
10 defensive coordinators, 7 offensive coordinators have previously been head coaches.
5) Tennessee Titans lost OT Taylor Lewan for the year with a torn ACL; big loss.
4) You wonder how much playing these weeknight games on national TV will help recruiting for Sun Belt, AAC football programs that are getting an unusually high amount of TV exposure.
It is good football, the games have been fun to watch; kids are going to see the games, and it has to help their recruiting a little bit, no?
3) Long time ago, there was a guy who played in the ABA named Wes Bialosuknia; he played at UConn in college, played one year for the Oakland Oaks, scoring 8.7 ppg.
He had a great nickname; the Typographical Terror.
2) Leads seem to less safe in the NFL this year; in six weeks of play, at least one team every week has blown a lead of 16+ points, with the Bengals doing it this past week- they led the Colts 21-0 in Indianapolis Sunday, lost 31-27.
1) One of the great broadcasters of all-time announced his retirement this week; Mike Emrick is one of, if not the best hockey play-by-play guy ever (with the late Dan Kelly). Few years ago, Emrick was very nice to a friend of mine?s son, who is an up-and-coming hockey announcer. He is just a classy guy and was great fun to listen to. Enjoy your retirement!!!
Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:
? Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
? Browns (-3.5) @ Bengals
? Cowboys (-3) @ Redskins
? Lions @ Falcons (-3)
? Panthers @ Saints (-7.5)
? Bills (-12.5) @ Jets
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,020
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
?Everybody could have done one more thing to help us get this win. That?s all of us. That?s the coaches and the players. Everyone has gotta be accountable to that.?
Bengals coach Zac Taylor
Tuesday?s quiz
Who did the Tampa Bay Rays play in their other World Series appearance?
Monday?s quiz
Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.
Sunday?s quiz
Nick Saban coached LSU, before he went to coach the Miami Dolphins for two seasons.
********************************************
Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??..
13) Chiefs 26, Buffalo 17
? Chiefs won all three of their road games, 2by 3-14-9 points.
? KC is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games following a SU loss.
? Under is 4-1-1 in their games this season.
? Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
? Buffalo lost its last two games, giving up 68 points, after a 4-0 start.
? Buffalo is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.
? Game was played on a rainy, cruddy night in western New York.
? Chiefs ran the football for 245 yards; they outgained Buffalo, 466-206.
12) Cardinals 38, Dallas 10:
? Arizona?s first three drives: 16 plays, 23 yards, three punts.
? Redbirds? next four drives: 26 plays, 240 yards, four TD?s.
? Arizona ran the ball for 261 yards.
? Cardinals scored 38 points despite Murray completing 9-24 passes.
? Arizona is 3-1 on the road this season.
? Last five games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34-38 points.
? Ezekiel Elliott lost fumbles on two of his first eight touches.
? With 11:30 left in 3rd quarter, play-by-play guy said that Dallas lacked enthusiasm, a nice way of saying they quit. No one disagreed with him.
? NFC East teams are 4-14 ATS outside their division, 1-9 at home.
11) Why did Red Sox trade Mookie Betts? Isn?t it good to have great players on your team?
10) Last three Georgia-Alabama games, Dawgs led all three games at halftime, then got outscored by a combined 68-17 in second half and lost all three.
9) Tennessee Vols signed a new defensive line coach to a 2-year contract this year, but they fired the guy Sunday, after only four games. Must be an interesting story there.
8) Social media flipped out Saturday night, when Tampa Bay took starter Charlie Morton out of the game despite Morton having thrown only 66 pitches. Everything worked out and the Rays won, but analytics people are obsessed with the idea that facing hitters a third time in a game is a bad idea, even if the pitcher doing it is way better than the reliever.
Thats part of what makes life interesting, different ideas being debated.
7) When the Tampa Bay Rays won the American League in 2008, it was also their first-ever winning season; they became a franchise in 1998. Starting in ?08, they?ve been over .500 nine of the last 13 years.
6) Of the 32 current NFL head coaches, 11 of them were also head coaches at a previous stop.
10 defensive coordinators, 7 offensive coordinators have previously been head coaches.
5) Tennessee Titans lost OT Taylor Lewan for the year with a torn ACL; big loss.
4) You wonder how much playing these weeknight games on national TV will help recruiting for Sun Belt, AAC football programs that are getting an unusually high amount of TV exposure.
It is good football, the games have been fun to watch; kids are going to see the games, and it has to help their recruiting a little bit, no?
3) Long time ago, there was a guy who played in the ABA named Wes Bialosuknia; he played at UConn in college, played one year for the Oakland Oaks, scoring 8.7 ppg.
He had a great nickname; the Typographical Terror.
2) Leads seem to less safe in the NFL this year; in six weeks of play, at least one team every week has blown a lead of 16+ points, with the Bengals doing it this past week- they led the Colts 21-0 in Indianapolis Sunday, lost 31-27.
1) One of the great broadcasters of all-time announced his retirement this week; Mike Emrick is one of, if not the best hockey play-by-play guy ever (with the late Dan Kelly). Few years ago, Emrick was very nice to a friend of mine?s son, who is an up-and-coming hockey announcer. He is just a classy guy and was great fun to listen to. Enjoy your retirement!!!
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,257
- 25
- 48
MLB public betting, line movement October 20
Patrick Everson
Mookie Betts and the L.A. Dodgers rode a Game 7 win and NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves to return to the World Series, where the Superbook at Westgate installed them as -215 favorites
MLB betting odds move on to the final frontier of this shortened season, the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays both needed seven games in their respective league championship series, and now they?ll meet in the Fall Classic.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for World Series odds as a whole and Tuesday?s Game 1. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.
The SuperBook put up its price to win the best-of-7 World Series late Sunday night, opening at Dodgers -215/Rays +185. There was apparently a little Tampa Bay money early, with a move to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.
John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, was hoping for Braves-Rays, a big win-win, as both sides would?ve been very good for the house. But he?ll settle for Rays-Dodgers.
?The Rays are awesome for us,? Murray said. ?We?re a small loser to the Dodgers.?
That?s no surprise, with Las Vegas books always attracting plenty of Dodger dollars, and surely more will show up on the series price and on a game-by-game basis over the next week or so.
Meanwhile, PointsBet USA opened Dodgers -182/Rays +145, and the first move was significant, to Dodgers -200/Rays +160. Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said Los Angeles represents a substantial loss should it claim the championship, while Tampa Bay would be a big win.
?The Dodgers were the second-most-bet team to win, behind the Yankees,? Eichner said. ?The Rays only account for about 4 percent of the overall bet count on the (World Series) market.?
MLB line movement
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Game 1 at Dodgers -175/Rays +148, and the first moves were down, as the moneyline is now Los Angeles -162/Tampa Bay +138. The total is stable at 8.
The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 NLCS deficit against the Braves, finishing with a 4-3 Game 7 victory on Sunday night. On the flip side, the Rays blew a 3-0 ALCS lead against the Astros, but came through with a 4-2 Game 7 win Saturday.
Although Game 1 starters weren?t set late Sunday night, The SuperBook went ahead and posted the line at Dodgers -165/Rays +155, with a total of 8. There was no movement Sunday night for Tuesday?s tilt, with first pitch at 8:09 p.m. ET.
MLB public betting
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: It's two-way action early on Game 1 at DraftKings, with 55 percent of tickets on the Rays and 59 percent of money on the favored Dodgers. Ticket count on the total is two-way, with the Over at 56 percent, though money is more pronounced on the Over, at 70 percent.
Patrick Everson
Mookie Betts and the L.A. Dodgers rode a Game 7 win and NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves to return to the World Series, where the Superbook at Westgate installed them as -215 favorites
MLB betting odds move on to the final frontier of this shortened season, the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays both needed seven games in their respective league championship series, and now they?ll meet in the Fall Classic.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for World Series odds as a whole and Tuesday?s Game 1. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.
The SuperBook put up its price to win the best-of-7 World Series late Sunday night, opening at Dodgers -215/Rays +185. There was apparently a little Tampa Bay money early, with a move to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.
John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, was hoping for Braves-Rays, a big win-win, as both sides would?ve been very good for the house. But he?ll settle for Rays-Dodgers.
?The Rays are awesome for us,? Murray said. ?We?re a small loser to the Dodgers.?
That?s no surprise, with Las Vegas books always attracting plenty of Dodger dollars, and surely more will show up on the series price and on a game-by-game basis over the next week or so.
Meanwhile, PointsBet USA opened Dodgers -182/Rays +145, and the first move was significant, to Dodgers -200/Rays +160. Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said Los Angeles represents a substantial loss should it claim the championship, while Tampa Bay would be a big win.
?The Dodgers were the second-most-bet team to win, behind the Yankees,? Eichner said. ?The Rays only account for about 4 percent of the overall bet count on the (World Series) market.?
MLB line movement
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Game 1 at Dodgers -175/Rays +148, and the first moves were down, as the moneyline is now Los Angeles -162/Tampa Bay +138. The total is stable at 8.
The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 NLCS deficit against the Braves, finishing with a 4-3 Game 7 victory on Sunday night. On the flip side, the Rays blew a 3-0 ALCS lead against the Astros, but came through with a 4-2 Game 7 win Saturday.
Although Game 1 starters weren?t set late Sunday night, The SuperBook went ahead and posted the line at Dodgers -165/Rays +155, with a total of 8. There was no movement Sunday night for Tuesday?s tilt, with first pitch at 8:09 p.m. ET.
MLB public betting
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: It's two-way action early on Game 1 at DraftKings, with 55 percent of tickets on the Rays and 59 percent of money on the favored Dodgers. Ticket count on the total is two-way, with the Over at 56 percent, though money is more pronounced on the Over, at 70 percent.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,257
- 25
- 48
951TAMPA BAY -952 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-27 SU (11.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, October 20
Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Game 951-952
October 20, 2020 @ 8:09 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.129
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-175); Under
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, October 20
World Series
Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Glasnow is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts.
? Rays are 12-3 in his starts this season.
? Under is 3-3 in his last six starts.
? Glasnow allowed six runs in four IP in three relief stints vs LA.
? He is 2-3, 5.47 in six postseason starts.
? Tampa Bay is 13-5 in its last 18 games; they survived blowing a 3-0 series lead vs Houston, and their bullpen had the last two days off.
? Rays are 49-25 this season.
? Under is 8-1 in their last eight games.
? Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.
Kershaw is 3-1, 3.60 in his last five starts.
? Dodgers are 10-3 in his starts this season.
? Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
? Kershaw is 11-12, 4.31 in 35 playoff games (28 starts).
? He is 2-0, 1.88 in two career starts against the Rays.
? Dodgers are 52-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
? Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
? LA is 31-11 away from home this season.
? Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
? Dodgers haven?t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.
MLB
Tuesday, October 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA DODGERS are 40-27 SU (11.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, October 20
Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Game 951-952
October 20, 2020 @ 8:09 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.129
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-175); Under
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, October 20
World Series
Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Glasnow is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts.
? Rays are 12-3 in his starts this season.
? Under is 3-3 in his last six starts.
? Glasnow allowed six runs in four IP in three relief stints vs LA.
? He is 2-3, 5.47 in six postseason starts.
? Tampa Bay is 13-5 in its last 18 games; they survived blowing a 3-0 series lead vs Houston, and their bullpen had the last two days off.
? Rays are 49-25 this season.
? Under is 8-1 in their last eight games.
? Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.
Kershaw is 3-1, 3.60 in his last five starts.
? Dodgers are 10-3 in his starts this season.
? Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
? Kershaw is 11-12, 4.31 in 35 playoff games (28 starts).
? He is 2-0, 1.88 in two career starts against the Rays.
? Dodgers are 52-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
? Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
? LA is 31-11 away from home this season.
? Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
? Dodgers haven?t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.
MLB
Tuesday, October 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES
10/20/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......19-9-0.......67.85%.....+48.25
10/20/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals.......19-9-0.......67.85%.....+48.25
Wednesday?s 6-pack
Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:
? Green Bay (-3.5) @ Houston
? Seattle (-3.5) @ Arizona
? San Francisco @ New England (-2.5)
? Kansas City (-9.5) @ Denver
? Tampa Bay (-3) @ Las Vegas
? Pittsburgh (-2) @ Tennessee
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,338
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
?I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.?
Voltaire
Wednesday?s quiz
In The Wizard of Oz, what state was Dorothy from?
Tuesday?s quiz
Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Phillies in their other World Series appearance, in 2008.
Monday?s quiz
Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.
**************************
Wednesday?s Den: My running diary of Sunday?s 1:00 NFL games
12:59: We have eight games on one screen on channel 702 of DirecTV, a good way to follow the early games, as long as the Rams aren?t playing- they play tonight. Bengals-Colts is the one game that isn?t being shown on this screen.
1:04: Minnesota QB Cousins throws an INT on the Vikings? first play; no bueno. If there were fans in the stands, they?d be grumbling right now.
1:07: Falcons take advantage; Ryan-to-Jones gives Atlanta a 7-0 lead, first TD of the day in the league.
1:08: 4-1 Bears score an early TD, lead the Panthers 7-0 early on in Charlotte.
1:12: Lamar Jackson scrambles, throws a TD, Ravens lead 7-0 in nPhilly, as the NFC East?s struggles continue. Coming into this week, NFC East squads are 3-12-1 ATS outside the division.
1:14: Washington misses a field goal against the Giants; Detroit scores an early TD against the the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Speaking of Jacksonville, if I owned the Jaguars and we were home underdogs to Detroit, I?d have a talk with my football people and ask what the BLEEP is going on????
1:15: Baker Mayfield throws a pick-6, Browns are down 10-0 in Pittsburgh- they?ve lost 16 games in a row in Pittsburgh, and appear to be on a fast track to #17.
1:19: Tannehill throws a TD for the Titans; they led Houston 7-0.
When Tannehill was a rookie with Miami, they were on HBO?s Hard Knocks, and there was a conversation where Tannehill and Matt Moore, the other QB, are talking in a meeting room. Tannehill tells Moore that he doesn?t know who the other three teams in the AFC East are.
?How do you not know that?!?!?!? Moore was as incredulous as I was.
1:22: Denver leads 6-0 in Foxboro, kicking field goals on their first two drives, but not taking full advantage of scoring opportunities.
1:23: Giants 3, Redskins 0? The moveable force leads the resistible object.
1:25: Falcons lead 10-0 in Minnesota; this is where I?m supposed to point out that Kirk Cousins makes $28M a year, but won only one playoff game (1-2). He is 20-18-1 in 2+ years QB?ing the Vikings.
I admire Vikings? coach Mike Zimmer; guy has had eight operations on one of his eyes but he still coaches. I?ve had two eye operations in the last 13 months; has to be very difficult for him to work as hard as coaches do while properly maintaining his eye, or maybe that?s why he?s had to have eight operations- could be he isn?t maintaining the eye.
1:27: Carolina kicks a FG, trail Chicago 7-3, first game today where both teams have scored.
1:32: Giants lead 10-0; Jones throws a 23-yard TD pass to Slayton.
1:35: Titans lead Houston 14-0; the Texans traded star WR DeAndre Hopkins, then fired the guy who traded him four games later? not a well-run franchise. Great players help win games.
1:42: Ravens lead 14-0 in Philly; Eagles drafted Carson Wentz in 2016, won the Super Bowl the next year, but Wentz had gotten injured during the season and Nick Foles was the hero, but now Foles plays for the Bears and Wentz is increasingly viewed as a suspect.
1:45: Denver leads 9-0 in Foxboro; they have Drew Lock back at QB, and have FG?s on their first three drives. It is super-ironic that John Elway is struggling to find a franchise QB for the team he once starred for.
1:50: Daniel Jones runs for 49 yards; problem is, he runs better than he throws, which isn?t so great for an NFL QB.
I miss watching NFL games at the Westgate Theater in Las Vegas, the same room where Barry Manilow performs. Seats 1,500 people; there is a concession stand on the left, betting windows in the back, and people have always been cool when I?ve been there.
One Sunday in the Westgate 2-3 years ago, I?m talking to this guy wearing a Cardinals? jersey; we?re shooting the breeze about sports, gambling, Las Vegas; all of a sudden, it dawns on me that this guy is betting $6,000 a game, while I?m stressed out about my $30 wager. Oy.
Las Vegas is the big time of gambling; can?t wait to get back there.
2:00: Denver leads 9-3 in Foxboro; over bettors are queasy. Teams are moving the ball, but not scoring touchdowns.
Bengals led 21-0 in Indy, now lead 21-7; at one point, Joe Burrow was a 3rd-string QB at Ohio State, playing behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Anyone want to ask Urban Meyer about that?
2:03: Baker Mayfield scrambles, throws another INT; Cleveland QB?s are measured by how they do against the Steelers/Ravens, who rule the AFC North. This ain?t going well.
2:07: Tannehill has Tennessee ahead of the Texans 21-7; in a couple weeks, Titans play Cincinnati, and Tannehill will meet up with Zac Taylor, whose father-in-law is Mike Sherman, the guy who moved Tannehill from WR to QB while they were both at Texas A&M.
2:14: Denver leads 12-3 at halftime in Foxboro; four possessions, four FG?s.
This is where I break down Bill Belichick?s career as a head coach:
? With Tom Brady at QB: 219-64, six Super Bowl titles
? Without Tom Brady at QB: 56-65, and down 12-3 at halftime today
2:16: Giants lead 13-10; Washington?s Kyle Allen throws a TD with 0:13 left in the half. Giants have mostly dominated the half, but lead only 13-10.
2:28: Eagles get stopped on 4th-and-a in the red zone, trail 17-0 with 0:56 left in the half, and may be at least a little grateful there are no fans there to boo them off the field.
Note to self; buy some Halloween candy, Reese?s cups or KitKats. That way, if no kids show up, I?ve still got a bowlful of candy I like.
With most of the games at halftime, time for a nutritious meal, a bowl of Fruit Loops.
2:48: Broncos lead 15-3 in Foxboro; five possessions, five FG?s. Has this ever happened before, a team with field goals on their first five drives?
2:53: Houston has rallied, cutting the Titans lead to 21-17.
Jennifer Garner must have a great agent; she does a ton of commercials.
2:55: New England?s tight end fumbles, Denver has the ball in NE territory- they kick yet another FG, now lead 18-3.
3:00: There was a time 10-11 years ago when Jacksonville owner Shahid Khan tried to buy the Rams, when they were in St Louis. Mercifully, that didn?t happen, because Stan Kroenke moved the Rams to LA and that?s a good thing.
3:02: Falcons lead 23-7 in Minnesota; Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach, and has gone thru offensive coordinators very quickly. Watching the Vikings gag away that game in Seattle Monday night, it had to be a dispiriting loss, and today they look like a depressed team.
3:05: Guy on the Eagles runs 70+ yards, fumbles, and a teammate recovers for a TD, but then Philly goes for two points- why? When was it decided that going for two all the time was such a great idea?
3:09: Jones throws a terrible INT in the end zone, Giants still lead, but only 13-10.
3:11: Matt Ryan throws another TD pass, Falcons lead 30-7, and interim coaches are about to go 2-0 this season in their first game after the firing.
3:13: Lamar Jackson runs 37 yards for a TD; he could?ve run to Newark before he got hit, and the Ravens are jogging, 24-6.
3:19: Tennessee misses a FG, still trails 23-21, in what looks like the best of these early games.
3:20: Steelers lead Cleveland 31-7 and Case Keenum is in at QB for the Browns; I?ll be doing a look at Keenum?s unusual career pretty soon. Guy moves around a lot.
3:25: Cam Newton gets the Patriots in the end for the first TD of the day, but they miss on the 2-point play, trail 18-9 with 8:31 left. First TD of the game for either side.
3:27: Tennessee?s Derrick Henry runs 94 yards for a TD, Titans lead 29-23 with 9:23 left.
3:29: Washington kicks a FG; they?re 13-13 with the Giants, 8:56 left. My cousin bet the Giants on the money line. Kind of glad I?m not there right now.
3:32: Deshaun Watson throws a 53-yard TD pass, Houston leads 30-29 with 8:29 left. Thisis really a good game.
3:37: Denver QB Lock throws an awful INT; Patriots get the ball on Denver?s 25, but only kicks a field goal, and trails 18-12 with 3:23 left.
3:42: Lock throws ANOTHER interception, and New England is going to steal this bleeping game. Denver just cut Blake Bortles, who can?t possibly be worse than the guys the Broncos have been using at QB.
3:44: Giants get sack/fumble/TD, take a 20-13 lead with 3:29 left.
3:50: Former QB Julian Edelman throws an 18-yard pass to Cam Newton on a trick play; Newton is way bigger than the DB?s, is bigger than lot of linebackers. Patriots are on the move.
3:52: Eagles? tight end Zach Ertz sprains his ankle; the Philly offense is messed up.
3:53: Houston scores a TD, leads 36-29; they go for 2 to get ahead by nine points (two scores) but miss on the try. I have no problem with that strategy.
3:54: Denver holds on, wins 18-12 in Foxboro, without scoring a TD. Belichick falls to 56-66 in his career with a QB other than Brady.
3:56: Redskins score TD with 0:36 left, trail 20-19, and Rivera has them go for two points- they don?t get it, much to the relief of a certain living room on Long Island.
Unless your QB is a great runner, I?m a firm believer in kicking the PAT and going to OT, but football coaches have this macho attitude that we can run them over, but it makes very little sense. Then again, no one asked me.
4:00: Titans score with 0:04 left to force overtime, and now the TV guys are killing Romeo Crennel for going for two after Houston?s last TD.
4:07: Tennessee wins coin toss in OT, Watson winces noticeably, not showing whole lot of faith in his defense.
4:12: Once down 21-0, Colts have rallied to lead Indianapolis 31-27; Burrow throws a pick in Colt territory with 0:32 left.
Philip Rivers grew up in Alabama, but neither Alabama/Auburn saw him as a starting QB, so he went to NC State, where he started for four years, and since has played 17 years in the NFL.
Go figure.
4:14: Derrick Henry scores TD, puts Houston?s defense out of its misery, 42-36. He ran the ball for 221 yards and looked like a man amongst boys.
Tennessee is 5-0, but they have a four wins by 3 or fewer points, plus this overtime win.
4:19: Eagles have rallied, have ball down 30-22, after Baltimore killed off only 0:27 on their last drive. After a terrible interference call on Baltimore, Wentz sneaks in for a TD with 1:55 left, but the 2-point try fails, and Ravens hold on, 30-28.
Eagles scored four TD?s, but never tried an extra point- they went for two four times.
Pretty good card of early games, considering it is October, when league tries to hide lot of the lesser-appealing non-divisional matchups.
Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:
? Green Bay (-3.5) @ Houston
? Seattle (-3.5) @ Arizona
? San Francisco @ New England (-2.5)
? Kansas City (-9.5) @ Denver
? Tampa Bay (-3) @ Las Vegas
? Pittsburgh (-2) @ Tennessee
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,338
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
?I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.?
Voltaire
Wednesday?s quiz
In The Wizard of Oz, what state was Dorothy from?
Tuesday?s quiz
Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Phillies in their other World Series appearance, in 2008.
Monday?s quiz
Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.
**************************
Wednesday?s Den: My running diary of Sunday?s 1:00 NFL games
12:59: We have eight games on one screen on channel 702 of DirecTV, a good way to follow the early games, as long as the Rams aren?t playing- they play tonight. Bengals-Colts is the one game that isn?t being shown on this screen.
1:04: Minnesota QB Cousins throws an INT on the Vikings? first play; no bueno. If there were fans in the stands, they?d be grumbling right now.
1:07: Falcons take advantage; Ryan-to-Jones gives Atlanta a 7-0 lead, first TD of the day in the league.
1:08: 4-1 Bears score an early TD, lead the Panthers 7-0 early on in Charlotte.
1:12: Lamar Jackson scrambles, throws a TD, Ravens lead 7-0 in nPhilly, as the NFC East?s struggles continue. Coming into this week, NFC East squads are 3-12-1 ATS outside the division.
1:14: Washington misses a field goal against the Giants; Detroit scores an early TD against the the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Speaking of Jacksonville, if I owned the Jaguars and we were home underdogs to Detroit, I?d have a talk with my football people and ask what the BLEEP is going on????
1:15: Baker Mayfield throws a pick-6, Browns are down 10-0 in Pittsburgh- they?ve lost 16 games in a row in Pittsburgh, and appear to be on a fast track to #17.
1:19: Tannehill throws a TD for the Titans; they led Houston 7-0.
When Tannehill was a rookie with Miami, they were on HBO?s Hard Knocks, and there was a conversation where Tannehill and Matt Moore, the other QB, are talking in a meeting room. Tannehill tells Moore that he doesn?t know who the other three teams in the AFC East are.
?How do you not know that?!?!?!? Moore was as incredulous as I was.
1:22: Denver leads 6-0 in Foxboro, kicking field goals on their first two drives, but not taking full advantage of scoring opportunities.
1:23: Giants 3, Redskins 0? The moveable force leads the resistible object.
1:25: Falcons lead 10-0 in Minnesota; this is where I?m supposed to point out that Kirk Cousins makes $28M a year, but won only one playoff game (1-2). He is 20-18-1 in 2+ years QB?ing the Vikings.
I admire Vikings? coach Mike Zimmer; guy has had eight operations on one of his eyes but he still coaches. I?ve had two eye operations in the last 13 months; has to be very difficult for him to work as hard as coaches do while properly maintaining his eye, or maybe that?s why he?s had to have eight operations- could be he isn?t maintaining the eye.
1:27: Carolina kicks a FG, trail Chicago 7-3, first game today where both teams have scored.
1:32: Giants lead 10-0; Jones throws a 23-yard TD pass to Slayton.
1:35: Titans lead Houston 14-0; the Texans traded star WR DeAndre Hopkins, then fired the guy who traded him four games later? not a well-run franchise. Great players help win games.
1:42: Ravens lead 14-0 in Philly; Eagles drafted Carson Wentz in 2016, won the Super Bowl the next year, but Wentz had gotten injured during the season and Nick Foles was the hero, but now Foles plays for the Bears and Wentz is increasingly viewed as a suspect.
1:45: Denver leads 9-0 in Foxboro; they have Drew Lock back at QB, and have FG?s on their first three drives. It is super-ironic that John Elway is struggling to find a franchise QB for the team he once starred for.
1:50: Daniel Jones runs for 49 yards; problem is, he runs better than he throws, which isn?t so great for an NFL QB.
I miss watching NFL games at the Westgate Theater in Las Vegas, the same room where Barry Manilow performs. Seats 1,500 people; there is a concession stand on the left, betting windows in the back, and people have always been cool when I?ve been there.
One Sunday in the Westgate 2-3 years ago, I?m talking to this guy wearing a Cardinals? jersey; we?re shooting the breeze about sports, gambling, Las Vegas; all of a sudden, it dawns on me that this guy is betting $6,000 a game, while I?m stressed out about my $30 wager. Oy.
Las Vegas is the big time of gambling; can?t wait to get back there.
2:00: Denver leads 9-3 in Foxboro; over bettors are queasy. Teams are moving the ball, but not scoring touchdowns.
Bengals led 21-0 in Indy, now lead 21-7; at one point, Joe Burrow was a 3rd-string QB at Ohio State, playing behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Anyone want to ask Urban Meyer about that?
2:03: Baker Mayfield scrambles, throws another INT; Cleveland QB?s are measured by how they do against the Steelers/Ravens, who rule the AFC North. This ain?t going well.
2:07: Tannehill has Tennessee ahead of the Texans 21-7; in a couple weeks, Titans play Cincinnati, and Tannehill will meet up with Zac Taylor, whose father-in-law is Mike Sherman, the guy who moved Tannehill from WR to QB while they were both at Texas A&M.
2:14: Denver leads 12-3 at halftime in Foxboro; four possessions, four FG?s.
This is where I break down Bill Belichick?s career as a head coach:
? With Tom Brady at QB: 219-64, six Super Bowl titles
? Without Tom Brady at QB: 56-65, and down 12-3 at halftime today
2:16: Giants lead 13-10; Washington?s Kyle Allen throws a TD with 0:13 left in the half. Giants have mostly dominated the half, but lead only 13-10.
2:28: Eagles get stopped on 4th-and-a in the red zone, trail 17-0 with 0:56 left in the half, and may be at least a little grateful there are no fans there to boo them off the field.
Note to self; buy some Halloween candy, Reese?s cups or KitKats. That way, if no kids show up, I?ve still got a bowlful of candy I like.
With most of the games at halftime, time for a nutritious meal, a bowl of Fruit Loops.
2:48: Broncos lead 15-3 in Foxboro; five possessions, five FG?s. Has this ever happened before, a team with field goals on their first five drives?
2:53: Houston has rallied, cutting the Titans lead to 21-17.
Jennifer Garner must have a great agent; she does a ton of commercials.
2:55: New England?s tight end fumbles, Denver has the ball in NE territory- they kick yet another FG, now lead 18-3.
3:00: There was a time 10-11 years ago when Jacksonville owner Shahid Khan tried to buy the Rams, when they were in St Louis. Mercifully, that didn?t happen, because Stan Kroenke moved the Rams to LA and that?s a good thing.
3:02: Falcons lead 23-7 in Minnesota; Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach, and has gone thru offensive coordinators very quickly. Watching the Vikings gag away that game in Seattle Monday night, it had to be a dispiriting loss, and today they look like a depressed team.
3:05: Guy on the Eagles runs 70+ yards, fumbles, and a teammate recovers for a TD, but then Philly goes for two points- why? When was it decided that going for two all the time was such a great idea?
3:09: Jones throws a terrible INT in the end zone, Giants still lead, but only 13-10.
3:11: Matt Ryan throws another TD pass, Falcons lead 30-7, and interim coaches are about to go 2-0 this season in their first game after the firing.
3:13: Lamar Jackson runs 37 yards for a TD; he could?ve run to Newark before he got hit, and the Ravens are jogging, 24-6.
3:19: Tennessee misses a FG, still trails 23-21, in what looks like the best of these early games.
3:20: Steelers lead Cleveland 31-7 and Case Keenum is in at QB for the Browns; I?ll be doing a look at Keenum?s unusual career pretty soon. Guy moves around a lot.
3:25: Cam Newton gets the Patriots in the end for the first TD of the day, but they miss on the 2-point play, trail 18-9 with 8:31 left. First TD of the game for either side.
3:27: Tennessee?s Derrick Henry runs 94 yards for a TD, Titans lead 29-23 with 9:23 left.
3:29: Washington kicks a FG; they?re 13-13 with the Giants, 8:56 left. My cousin bet the Giants on the money line. Kind of glad I?m not there right now.
3:32: Deshaun Watson throws a 53-yard TD pass, Houston leads 30-29 with 8:29 left. Thisis really a good game.
3:37: Denver QB Lock throws an awful INT; Patriots get the ball on Denver?s 25, but only kicks a field goal, and trails 18-12 with 3:23 left.
3:42: Lock throws ANOTHER interception, and New England is going to steal this bleeping game. Denver just cut Blake Bortles, who can?t possibly be worse than the guys the Broncos have been using at QB.
3:44: Giants get sack/fumble/TD, take a 20-13 lead with 3:29 left.
3:50: Former QB Julian Edelman throws an 18-yard pass to Cam Newton on a trick play; Newton is way bigger than the DB?s, is bigger than lot of linebackers. Patriots are on the move.
3:52: Eagles? tight end Zach Ertz sprains his ankle; the Philly offense is messed up.
3:53: Houston scores a TD, leads 36-29; they go for 2 to get ahead by nine points (two scores) but miss on the try. I have no problem with that strategy.
3:54: Denver holds on, wins 18-12 in Foxboro, without scoring a TD. Belichick falls to 56-66 in his career with a QB other than Brady.
3:56: Redskins score TD with 0:36 left, trail 20-19, and Rivera has them go for two points- they don?t get it, much to the relief of a certain living room on Long Island.
Unless your QB is a great runner, I?m a firm believer in kicking the PAT and going to OT, but football coaches have this macho attitude that we can run them over, but it makes very little sense. Then again, no one asked me.
4:00: Titans score with 0:04 left to force overtime, and now the TV guys are killing Romeo Crennel for going for two after Houston?s last TD.
4:07: Tennessee wins coin toss in OT, Watson winces noticeably, not showing whole lot of faith in his defense.
4:12: Once down 21-0, Colts have rallied to lead Indianapolis 31-27; Burrow throws a pick in Colt territory with 0:32 left.
Philip Rivers grew up in Alabama, but neither Alabama/Auburn saw him as a starting QB, so he went to NC State, where he started for four years, and since has played 17 years in the NFL.
Go figure.
4:14: Derrick Henry scores TD, puts Houston?s defense out of its misery, 42-36. He ran the ball for 221 yards and looked like a man amongst boys.
Tennessee is 5-0, but they have a four wins by 3 or fewer points, plus this overtime win.
4:19: Eagles have rallied, have ball down 30-22, after Baltimore killed off only 0:27 on their last drive. After a terrible interference call on Baltimore, Wentz sneaks in for a TD with 1:55 left, but the 2-point try fails, and Ravens hold on, 30-28.
Eagles scored four TD?s, but never tried an extra point- they went for two four times.
Pretty good card of early games, considering it is October, when league tries to hide lot of the lesser-appealing non-divisional matchups.
