Cnotes NFL 2019-2010 Football Schedule + News .Notes,Draft, Etc.

[Cnotes53]

Future Outlook - Texans
July 1, 2019
By Bookmaker
by Kyle Markus

Houston Texans Season Win Total Outlook

The Houston Texans finished with one of the best records in the NFL a season ago but are not expected to be among the contenders in the AFC in 2019. The oddsmakers believe a team that went 11-5 a year ago will take a step back.

Houston has a lot of the same pieces returning so it?s a bit of a surprise that so much regression is projected. The Texans would love to buck that narrative and make a push for the playoffs.

The Texans had a bit of chaos this offseason when General Manager Brian Gaine was fired. It seemed like the team was expecting to hire Nick Caserio to replace him but the Patriots wouldn?t let Caserio go and Houston dropped the pursuit. While that wasn?t an ideal scenario, the major personnel choices were already made and the team has enough talent to compete this year.

We'll have NFL odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2019 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Texans? regular season win total has been placed at 8.5 wins for 2019. The ?over? is the underdog at +129 odds while the ?under? is listed at -156.

Houston made it to the AFC wild card round a year ago but was beaten by the Colts. The Texans were above average offensively a year ago and a top-5 defense.

Houston?s offense has many of the same pieces returning. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is one of the more talented young quarterbacks in the NFL. He threw for 4,165 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions a season ago. If he can take another step forward in 2019 it will give Houston a good chance of finishing the year above .500.

His main target will once again be DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins had 115 catches for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago and is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. There are some other solid weapons in the pass game, and the Texans will need to do well there because the running game doesn?t figure to be super strong. The offensive line is the biggest concern on offense. Houston took Tytus Howard in the first round and is hoping he can fill a role quickly.

The defense lost safety Tyrann Mathieu but the pass-rush should again be elite with J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus leading the way. Clowney is unhappy with his contract and there is talk he could sit out for some stretch of training camp or the season but that seems unlikely. If Clowney doesn?t show up it would obviously be a big deal as he is one of the best players on the team.

The Texans will play the Jaguars, Colts and Titans twice apiece in their divisional schedule. Their other home games will come against the Panthers, Falcons, Raiders, Patriots and Broncos. The other road matchups will be against the Chiefs, Ravens, Saints, Chargers and Buccaneers. It is a really tough first-place schedule which will test Houston considerably.

NFL Pick

Houston?s defense was really good last year but it also got a full season out of Watt. He is injury-prone and 30 years old, and if he misses time it will hurt this team. Watson can help combat that by taking a step forward but there is a worry that the offensive line is so bad that he will be under too much pressure consistently.

The Texans have a lot of star players but there is some worry about the depth of this team. Houston isn?t going to be quite as good as last season and the schedule will result in a .500 season or worse in 2019.

NFL Pick: Houston Texans ?under? 8.5 wins at -156 odds

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s Den; NFL knowledge with camp only a week away??.

13) Kansas City was +9 in turnovers, +27 in sacks LY, as QB Mahomes exploded onto the scene; KC was 12-4 LY, with three losses by 3 or fewer points. Last three years, Chiefs are 8-3 ATS as an underdog. In his last 10 years as a HC, Andy Reid is 2-7 in playoff games, after going 10-7 in playoff games before that.

12) Minnesota was #31 in NFL LY in $$$ spent on their offensive line; last summer, their OL coach died suddenly before training camp started, and team went 8-8 after going 13-3 the year before, when Keenum was their QB. Cousins is 34-37-2 as an NFL starter, 0-1 in playoff games; he makes $28M a year. It is unclear if he is better than Keenum.

11) Colts have had only two losing seasons since 2001, but last year was first time in four years they made the playoffs. Indy was 4-1 LY in games decided by 3 or fewer points in Reich?s first season as a head coach; under is 21-10 in their home games the last four years.
10) Madden video game ranked Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL- he?ll be 39 in January. Last six years, Giants are 38-59 SU; last two years, they?re 1-4-1 vs spread as a favorite. Giants went for it on 4th down only eight times LY, and Saquon Barkley carried the ball on only one of the eight plays. Will they play first round draft pick QB Jones at all this season?

9) Miami hasn?t made the playoffs since 2008; their last playoff win was in 2000, six coaches ago. Dolphins were last in NFL LY in $$ spent on offense, then they went and hired a defensive assistant from New England as their new HC. Josh Rosen is the new QB; he started 13 games as a rookie for a bad Arizona team LY.

8) Last year in Oakland for the Raiders, who haven?t won a playoff game since 2002- they?ve made playoffs once since then, going 10-22 last two years after a 12-4 season in 2016. Oakland was #31 in $$$ spent on defense LY; they had three first round picks in April, using two on defenders, which should help. Raiders had only 13 sacks LY, while giving up 52.

7) Le?Veon Bell, Antonio Brown are both gone now; Steelers were last in NFL LY in $$$ spent at both RB and WR- they were -11 in turnovers, after going +8 the previous three years. Big Ben is 37; he threw 675 passes LY. Last three years, under is 18-5 in their road games. Last six years, Steelers are 7-3-1 vs spread coming off a loss.

6) Jaguars were #4 in $$$ spent on defense LY, #28 on offense, but now Nick Foles is their QB; can he survive a 16-game schedule? Foles has never started more than 11 games in a season, and started 9+ games in a season only twice. Last four years, Jaguars TO margin is minus-30, and that was with a +10 season in 2017.

5) Jets haven?t made the playoffs since 2010; they went 14-34 the last three years. Adam Gase went 23-25 as coach in Miami, got fired, but division rival Jets hired him to tutor QB Darnold who started 13 games (4-9) LY. Gang Green was minus-10 in turnovers LY, are minus-34 the last three years. Over is 19-11-1 in their home games the last four years.

4) New England has won six Super Bowls since 2001; Brady will be 42 in a few weeks, but he is 12-2 in playoff games the last five years. Over last decade, NE is 46-27-3 as a home favorite; they have to replaced retired TE Gronkowski. In red zone LY, White was targeted 22 times, Edelman 19 times, Gronkowski only seven.

3) Last two years, while playing with very little home field advantage in Carson, Chargers went 11-3 vs spread in true road games. LA?s new dome opens next year; Chargers need lot of wins this year to sell tickets for their ?20 home games. Philip Rivers will be 38 in December; he?s started every game since ?06, but Bolts did a smart thing and added Tyrod Taylor as a backup.

2) Carson Wentz started 13-11 games the last two years; he is 23-17 as an NFL starter, and Nick Foles is in Jacksonville now, so Wentz better stay healthy. In Weeks 4 and 7 LY, Eagles led by 14+ points in 3rd quarter, but lost both games. 12 of their 16 games were decided by 8 or fewer points, which makes the -6 turnover ratio more damaging.

1) New Orleans had 29 more sacks than they allowed LY; they were 5-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points. Last eight times Saints made postseason, they won their first playoff game seven times. Drew Brees will be 41 in January. Red zone targets LY; Thomas 31, Kamara 29, Tre?Quan Smith 11. Last five years, over is 26-14 in the Superdome.

 

[Cnotes53]

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Here we are, a day after the MLB All-Star break has officially come and gone and now just three weeks away from that first NFL preseason game of the year. It's at this point in the calendar where much of the handicapping industry shifts the bulk of their focus to the upcoming football seasons ? college and pro ? as it's those two leagues that dominate action each and every year.

Readers of this weekly piece know that 2019 NFL work here started months ago as we've been breaking down various futures plays, and after working our way through things somewhat chronologically, we've arrived at the point where it's time to start talking about potential Super Bowl champions. We are still two weeks away from dissecting those completely, but after last week's piece covered playoff Yes/No props, it's on to division winners from the AFC Conference this week.

Predictably, there will be a bit of overlap between these division winner plays and last week's playoff predictions (and next week too with the NFC), but there are also a few things that have yet to be touched on, even if they've got the look and feel of the 'flavor of the day' right now.

Let's get right to it:

To win the AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (+500)

Starting off with the South here, as this play piggybacks off last week's piece on the Jags being a playoff team this year. It was there where I really discussed how the South is a division that definitely feels up for grabs in 2019, as I'm not ready to announce and hand over this division to the Colts after one solid return campaign from Andrew Luck. The Colts didn't even win the division a year ago, and yet as the prohibitive (-105) favorites to win the South in 2019, the general consensus is that we will see Luck and the Colts reach double-digit wins again.

Well who knows how healthy Luck stays in 2019, and with the other three teams in the AFC South all building their organizations with a defense-first mentality, all it takes is a slip up or two from the Colts this year and they'll be finding themselves in the division basement yet again.

The Jags defense is out to make a redemption statement this year after a tumultuous 2018 season, and having finally decided to bite the bullet and move on from Blake Bortles at QB, this offense should be able to take that next step. Scoring points will still be a struggle at times for the Jags, but with the defense and overall schedule they've got, that's probably not a concern that is be all, end all for a play like this at this price.

To win the AFC North

Cleveland Browns (+110)

Cleveland has become a franchise that's taken on plenty of hype this off-season with the moves they've made on both sides of the ball, but you've really got to applaud them for taking full assessment of what they had internally, and the climate of the division around them, and going out and doing what they did.

The Browns were plenty happy with what they got from QB Baker Mayfield last year to be convinced he was the right pick for this organization, so they went out and got plenty of offensive playmakers to put around him. This team is now quite deep at every offensive playmaking position which is always nice to have when making a future play like this ? injuries to happen ? as should health not end up being a concern for them, who knows how far this team ends up going. There is no more internal turmoil with the coaching staff to worry about now that Freddie Kitchens is confirmed as the head man in charge, and when you enter a season with unity at the top and an influx of talent in-between the lines, chances are success isn't too far behind.

At the same time, Cleveland looked around and saw a Pittsburgh team take a noticeable decline in talent with all their departures and turmoil they've dealt with over the past six months. Baltimore still look goods, but they've moved on to the Lamar Jackson era and the jury is still out if he's a capable passer in this league, and Cincinnati moved on from the Marvin Lewis era (finally) as they give the Dalton/AJ Green duo one more kick at the can under a new regime.

Chances are that can doesn't get too far down the street before new Bengals HC Zac Taylor gets antsy to move on to his own regime, and while I am considerably higher that seemingly most of the market on Lamar Jackson's ability to be a quality starter in today's NFL, in head-to-head matchups with Cleveland I do believe you've got to give the Browns the edge.

And then there is Pittsburgh who may end up suffering a hastily fall in this division with Big Ben on his last legs already and the internal issues they've got within that franchise still likely needing some sorting out. It can't always be guys just being disgruntled on their way out, there's got to be plenty of truth involved in the issues Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell brought up on their way out the door, and it make take the Steelers moving on from Roethlisberger ? whenever that happens ? for them to be completely ironed out.

So you can't blame the Browns for taking their shot and going for it in 2019, as they've been an organization that's been starved of success for far too long. It is a big jump for them to make to all of a sudden become division favorites, especially when they are still fairly young and learning how to win, but with so much chaos and uncertainty around them in the AFC North, things do appear to be aligned for them to win their first division crown since realignment happened.

Win Totals

1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Chicago Bears and SF 49ers
4) Atlanta Falcons

Individual Props

5) NFL ROY
6) NFL Passing Yards Leader
7) NFL Receiving Yards Leader
8) NFL Rushing Yards Leader

Playoff Futures

9) Make Playoffs Yes/No[/SIZE]

 

[Cnotes53]

no touts


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In addition to the previews outlined below, these interesting scheduling statistical notes merit consideration, compliments of the 2019 MTI Regular Season NFL Win Report:

Buffalo ? Bills will face 3 foes with a Thursday game on deck, 3 foes with a Monday game on deck, and 3 foes in the 2nd of two or more away games ... -5 net turnovers in 2018.

Miami ? Dolphins will face 2 foes coming off a bye week ...+5 net turnovers in 2018.

New England ? Pats have failed to play ?under? their season win total 10 straight years ... will face 3 foes coming off a bye week ... +10 net turnovers in 2018.

NY Jets ? Jets will face 2 foes coming off a Thursday game, and 2 foes coming off a Monday game ... -10 net turnovers in 2018.


Buffalo Bills

TEAM THEME: TAKE A LOOK AT ME NOW

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5 (over -160)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 125

Some say the best part of dating a Buffalo Bills fan is that you know she ain?t looking for a ring. It may be cruel but the fact of the matter is it?s been a long time (1995, 23 seasons ago) that Buffalo last enjoyed a playoff win. It?s also been since 2006 the last time the Bills opened a season with their first two games on the road ? and both of them in the same stadium, no less. It?s been even longer when Buffalo was featured on Thanksgiving (1994). And so former Dallas Cowboy Cole Beasley, signed by Buffalo as a free agent in the offseason, returns to the Big ?D?. It?s part of a brutal four-game season-ending trek for the Bills when they meet Baltimore at home and then hit the highway again for consecutive road games at Pittsburgh and New England in December.

Ironically, Buffalo will also take part in what could be a quintet of 2018 first-round quarterback battles when Bills QB Josh Allen faces Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold (twice). Through it all, GM Brandon Beane is at the forefront of a massive reconstruction, bringing Ken Dorsey in as its quarterback?s coach. Dorsey worked for five seasons with NFL MVP Cam Newton in Carolina and figures to polish up Allen?s skills. Aside from reforming the roster with plenty of free agent signings the past two seasons, Beane appeared to hit a home run with defensive tackle Ed Oliver with the ninth pick in this year?s draft. Oliver figures to make everyone around him better with his freakish athleticism. Bills fans attending games nowadays will finally need a program, and that?s a good thing.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 2019 marks the 8th year in the last 9 seasons in which the Bills will feature a new wide receivers coach.

PLAY ON: vs. Baltimore (12/8)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Bills are 1-21 SU in division games the L9Y when they commit 2 or more turnovers.


Miami Dolphins

TEAM THEME: WE?VE SEEN THIS BEFORE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 5 (under -120)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 132.5

Dave Hyde of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel put it best when he said that not having the burden of winning in the first year for a new regime is often the head fake of any rebuild. So it is for new Dolphins GM Chris Grier and new mentor Brian Flores. As a result, Grier didn?t fill holes in the offseason, he made them. Gone are Miami mainstays Ryan Tannehill, Cam Wake, and Robert Quinn. In is young, cheap talent with an upside (read: AAF signees). In other words, meet the ?Miami Apollos?. No, it won?t be quite that bad for Flores and Grier, not with the addition of talented QB Josh Rosen, the former 10th pick in the 2017 draft acquired via a trade on Day Two of this year?s NFL Draft from Arizona.

While Rosen?s 66.7 Passer Rating as a rookie with the Cardinals did not jump off the page, it was higher than the rookie ratings of Tom Brady, John Elway, Kurt Warner, Eli Manning and Troy Aikman ? Hall of Famers all. Remember, the Fins allowed 6,257 yards last season, the worst in franchise history, while the offense gained fewer than 200 yards in five games. And for all of this, Adam Gase is the Jets? new sideline boss. WTF? And so the rebuild begins.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami is 42-18 SU at home in September since 1980.

PLAY ON: vs. New England (9/15)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Dolphins are 11-27 ITS in December since 2006.


New England Patriots

TEAM THEME: JEWELED BY KRAFT

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 11 (over -150)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 120.5

Following last season?s 13-3 win over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII, iconic QB Tom Brady now owns a Super Bowl ring for every round of players that were drafted ahead of him. Meanwhile, Pats owner Robert Kraft owns enough jewelry to keep his name off courtroom dockets. It was also the first time since 1972 (Miami Dolphins) that a team lost a Super Bowl game one season and came back to win the Super Bowl the following season. So what does New England do for an encore this season? It?s always difficult for defending Super Bowl champions to play to the same level the following season. Making matters worse, the retirement of megastar TE Rob Gronkowski and top free agent Trey Flowers, along with multiple staff departures, certainly leaves a void.

So what will life be like with the fallout of the aforementioned personnel? As one NFL executive put it, ?Belichick is the guy who climbs Everest without oxygen just to see if he can do it. It'll work out for them." Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Dante Scarnecchia are still there, and that?s key. With it, New England is chasing Dallas? record of 20 straight winning seasons, and ironically the Pats will host the Cowboys the final Sunday in November. From a schedule standpoint, the Patriots take on the softest itinerary in the league from an opponent season-win projection. This also marks the third straight year the Pats will close the season with consecutive home games. Life is great if you?re a Patriot.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bill Belichick is 17-1 SU in the playoffs against foes that he did not face during the regular season.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Washington (10/6)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Patriots have 3 or more turnovers in only 6 of their last 101 games.


New York Jets

TEAM THEME: GASE MY WAY

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 122.5

Some way, somehow, Adam Gase managed to convince acting Jets owner Christopher Johnson that he was their man. In typical Gase fashion, his first move was a power struggle with GM Mike Maccagnan, resulting in Maccagnan?s firing. Gase then promptly traded away LB Derron Lee. The fact of the matter is Gase's primary objective is to develop Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowl-caliber franchise quarterback. If he does that, no one will care about what happened this offseason. If it doesn?t, Mr. Congeniality will be looking for work sooner than later. We have serious reservations, though, given the fact that Gase?s offenses in Miami declined each and every season during his three-year tenure with the Dolphins, ranking 24th, 25th and 31st.

Furthermore, Gase?s system threatens to choke out Darnold?s potential by ordering him to throw too many too-short passes. Perhaps the addition of RB Le?Veon Bell, an excellent receiver out of the backfield, will aid in the transition. Visit FootballOutsiders.com for more on the metrics involved in Gase?s shortcomings and you can draw your own conclusions. Also, check out our STAT YOU WILL LIKE below for more on Gase?s inadequacies. Through it all, the Jets enjoyed a strong Draft led by the selection of Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama with the 3rd overall pick. On paper, the Flyboys look improved. On the sidelines, they come up short.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miami Dolphins averaged 7.7 Penalties Per Game under Adam Gase, the 2nd worst in the league the past three seasons.

PLAY ON: at Miami (11/3)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Jets are 5-23 SU and 8-16-1 ATS in games in which they?ve been outyarded the L3Y.
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[Cnotes53]

AFC North Preview
July 21, 2019

2019 AFC NORTH PREVIEW

In addition to the previews outlined below, these interesting scheduling statistical notes merit consideration, compliments of the 2019 MTI Regular Season NFL Win Report:

Baltimore ? Ravens have not played ?under? their regular-season win total in any of the last five years... -3 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.

Cincinnati ? Bengals have played ?under? their regular-season win total 3 straight years ...+1 net turnover in 2018 regular season.

Cleveland ? Browns suffered 4 losses by 1-3 points last season ... +7 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.

Pittsburgh ? Steelers went ?under? their regular-season win total last season for the first time since 2013 ... -11 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.


Baltimore Ravens

TEAM THEME: MAVERICK IS THE NAME

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5 (over -120)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 129

The Ravens become the fourth team since the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978 to receive a perfectly balanced schedule, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Over the past 41 years, the only other teams to alternate home and away every game of the season were the 1985 Atlanta Falcons (finished 4-12), the 1991 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13) and the 2012 Falcons (13-3). Digging deeper, four of the Ravens? first six games are against losing teams last year that changed head coaches, including their first two. And for the first time since 2006, neither game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh is slotted for prime time ? despite the fact that only 7 of the last 25 games in this series have been decided by more than 7 points.

Furthermore, the Black Birds will tackle 6 foes this season that amassed double-digit losses in 2018. Thus the question begs: will the arsenal of wide receivers Baltimore acquired in the offseason be enough to keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket where he belongs? Or is his instinct to run-first and pass only out of necessity embedded in his DNA? It?s apparent the Ravens are all-in with Jackson, making them mavericks in the current pass-crazy NFL. Then again, Bret Maverick constantly found himself in and out of life-threatening trouble during his time as a TV gambler on the run.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Ravens are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS at home following its bye week since 2002.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. New England (11/3)

INSIDE THE STATS: After going 3-9 ITS in division games the Ravens went 4-2 in 2018.


Cincinnati Bengals

TEAM THEME: STRIPE HYPE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6 (over -130)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 129

It took three successive losing seasons for the Bengals to show HC Marvin Lewis the door. Now Zac Taylor, the former LA Rams quarterbacks coach, assumes the reins. And because the NFL is a copycat league, Cincinnati is hoping he can do for the Bengals what Sean McVay has done for the Rams. McVay, though, inherited a good defense and a blossoming offense. Unfortunately, Cincinnati does not check either box. Despite finishing last in overall defense last season, only ONE of the Bengals first four picks in this year?s draft were defensive players. Go figure.

They?re going to need production from TE Tyler Eifert who has played more than half of a 16 game schedule only three times in his 6-year career. If the talented tight end is healthy and plays to his level, he can help lift the offense to new heights. A lot more offensive production will need to come from suddenly aging Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle is listed as the 34th favorite to win the MVP award at +10000, and that likely tells you all you need to know about Taylor?s chances for success this season. Nonetheless, Cincinnati wants to believe Dalton?s sterling 17-11 SU and 17-8-3 ATS career record in September (3-1 last year) is a building block they can lean on. Good luck with that.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bengals own the NFL?s longest winless drought in the playoffs: 28 years.

PLAY ON: at Cleveland (12/8)

INSIDE THE STATS: Since it bye week in 2017, the Bengals are 6-19 ITS in their last 25 games.


Cleveland Browns

TEAM THEME: HUMBLE PIE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9 (over -130)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 124

No team has appeared in fewer prime-time games over the past 10 seasons than the Browns (11). That?s about to change this season when Cleveland breaks through in four main attraction affairs. It?s safe to say the Browns have elevated excitement about the team. After inserting quarterback Baker Mayfield into the starting lineup and then winning five of its final seven games in 2018, they won the offseason, too, with trades for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., pass-rusher Olivier Vernon, and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. Coupled with another strong draft, and a roster stockpiled with talent, the Browns are suddenly the ?it? team in the NFL this season.

But before being anointed as Super Bowl champions, they would serve themselves well to remember they enter 2019 with 11 consecutive losing seasons, as well as missing the playoffs 16 years in a row. The last playoff victory was in 1994 (when they were last coached by Bill Belichick). In fact, according to Jarrett Bell of the USA TODAY, since the NFL realigned divisions in 2002, the AFC North title scorecard reads: Steelers 8, Ravens 5, Bengals 4, Browns 0. The thinking here is they would be better served approaching the season as a hungry underdog rather than the ?new Patriots?, as OBJ declared. For a team with a whole new persona, let?s hope they adhere to Mayfield?s ?Humble Over Hype? reminder bracelet.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: In going from zero wins to seven wins last season, the Browns defense regressed 65 YPG.

PASS

INSIDE THE STATS: The Browns are 1-28 SU and 2-27 ATS the L29 games in which they are minus in net TO?s.


Pittsburgh Steelers

TEAM THEME: FADING STARS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 128

While many Steelers fans mourn the loss of star WR Antonio Brown and RB Le?Veon Bell this offseason, the hardest defection of all may be one that doesn?t show up in the stat sheets. After five years coaching the Steelers offensive line, Mike Munchak took the same job with the Denver Broncos, only his third NFL coaching stop in 25 years. His job was to keep Ben Roethlisberger upright and to create holes for the running game. Both Bell and Brown?s production benefitted mightily from Munchak?s know-how. With all three gainfully employed elsewhere, there will certainly be a new learning curve this season.

Running back Benny Snell (Kentucky) was tapped in the 4th round of the draft and will likely compete with James Conner to fill Bell?s shoes. Wide receiver Diontae Johnson (Toledo) heard his name called in the 3rd round and will team with Ju-Ju Schuster and James Washington to somehow spell Brown. On the other side of the ball, LB Devin Bush (Michigan) was the Steelers No. 1 choice to fill a big gap left by the unfortunate blow suffered by Ryan Shazier. The 3 stars on the Steelers helmets represent materials used to produce steel: yellow for coal; orange for iron ore; and blue for steel scrap. Understandably, the fans are more concerned about the 3 stars that are no longer visible.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who upset the Steelers are 2-18 SUATS away when coming off consecutive SUATS wins.

PLAY ON: at New England (9/8)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Steelers are an incredible 123-48 ITS in all games since 2009.

 

[Cnotes53]

13) How last five Super Bowl champs did in their season opener the next year:

2014: Seahawks (-5.5) W36-16 vs Green Bay
2015: Patriots (-7) W28-21 vs Pittsburgh
2016: Broncos (+3) W21-20 vs Carolina
2017: Patriots (-8) L27-42 vs Kansas City
2018: Eagles (-1) W18-12 vs Atlanta (3-1-1 vs spread)

12) How last six Super Bowl losers did in their season opener the next year:

2013: 49ers (-5) W34-28 vs Green Bay
2014: Broncos (-7.5) W31-24 vs Indianapolis
2015: Seahawks (-3.5) L31-34 OT @ Rams
2016: Panthers (-3) L20-21 @ Denver
2017: Falcons (-6.5) W23-17 @ Chicago
2018: Patriots (-6.5) W27-20 vs Houston

Since 2003, Super Bowl losers are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1 the next season.

11) How odd is it that Buffalo?s first two games this season are both in the Meadowlands?

10) Stat of the day; New England Patriots lost five of their last six visits to Miami. During that time, Dolphins are 27-20 at home (22-19 vs everyone else).

3) There have been 17 Super Bowls where one of the starting QB?s went to college in California; none of those QB?s went to USC. No Trojan QB has ever started a Super Bowl. Delaware Blue Hens have had two quarterbacks start a Super Bowl.

2) Bengals? WR AJ Green appears to have avoided a serious injury; he sprained his ankle at a practice in Dayton Saturday. The NFL requested the Bengals practice in Dayton as part of the league?s 100th anniversary. Bengal officials were leery of the field?s surface. .

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??.

13) NFL teams whose backup QB?s have never started a NFL game:
Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants, Steelers.

12) NFL backup QB?s who started the most NFL games:
126? Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami
92? Matt Schaub, Atlanta
88? Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
73? Blake Bortles, LA Rams

11) Most profitable NFL head coaches in preseason games:
? John Harbaugh Ravens 29-15-1 ATS
? Pete Carroll Seahawks 23-12-1
? Mike Zimmer Vikings 14-7
? Jon Gruden Raiders 14-8-2

10) Least profitable NFL head coaches in preseason games:
? Mike Vrabel, Titans 0-4 ATS
? Dan Quinn, Falcons 4-12
? Jason Garrett, Cowboys 11-20-2
? Bill Belichick, Patriots 25-31-1

9) There are 43 NBA players who will earn $2M+ during the 2019-20 season.

8) Joe Flacco won?t be playing QB for Denver Thursday in the Hall of Fame Game; Kevin Hogan will start, followed by rookie Drew Lock and then Brett Rypien.

7) Josh Johnson turned down a chance to go to Ravens? camp as a backup QB; he figures Robert Griffin III will be healthy shortly after the regular season begins, which would mean Johnson getting cut at that point.

32-year old Johnson has had shots with 12 different NFL teams, going 1-7 as a starter? he?s played in 33 NFL games, starting three for the Redskins LY.

6) Baseball stuff:
? Washington put P Max Scherzer (back) on IL.
? Pirates traded P Jordan Lyles to Milwaukee for a AA pitcher.
? Mets traded P Jason Vargas to Philly for a AA catcher.
? Dodgers put IF Kike Hernandez (hand) on IL.

5) College basketball transfer portal:
? Utah F Donnie Tillman transfers from Utah to UNLV, is immediately eligible.

4) Last major league to score 10+ runs in an inning and still lose the game; Royals against Cleveland in August, 2006.

3) Former Clemson RB Tavien Feaster is transferring to South Carolina, where he?ll be eligible right away; he has 1,330 career rushing yards and 15 TD?s..

2) Former Southern Miss/Tennessee coach Donnie Tyndall is the new head coach of the Grand Rapids Drive in the G-League.

1) I?d advise against wagering on preseason football, but if you must, six of last seven Hall of Fame games stayed under the total.

 

[Cnotes53]

AFC South Preview
July 29, 2019

2019 AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

In addition to the previews outlined below, these interesting scheduling statistical notes merit consideration, compliments of the 2019 MTI Regular Season NFL Win Report:

Houston ? Texans will face zero opponents coming off a Thursday or a Monday night game this season ... +13 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.

Indianapolis ? Colts had 6 double-digit and wire-to-wire wins last season ... +3 net turnover in 2018 regular season.

Jacksonville ? Jaguars have played ?under their regular-season win total 7 of the last 8 years, and suffered 7 double-digit losses, and had zero victories by 1-3 points, last season ... -12 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.

Tennessee ? Titans had 4 double-digit victories and 4 double-digit losses last season... -1 net turnover in 2018 regular season.


Houston Texans

TEAM THEME: GUARDING THE MINT

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5 (under -140)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 137

The Texans know where their bread is buttered and used the draft to bolster the offensive line with OT Tytus Howard in the first round and OT Max Scharping in the second round. It?s music to the ears of QB Deshaun Watson, who at times resembled a human pi?ata last season. "We have to have guys that can be bodyguards for Watson, man, and you're going to be that guy," head coach Bill O?Brien told Howard. Keeping Watson upright and out of harm?s way will give the talented QB time to survey the field. The added return of star WR Will Fuller (ACL) is critical, too, as the speedster is the perfect complement to DeAndre Hopkins. The 25-year-old Fuller has missed 17 regular-season games in his career.

With J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney healthy and anchoring the defense, Houston hopes to get back to 2015 and 2016 standards when they were ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in overall team defense in the league. The confidence factor for this team is there, as they became the first team since the 1970 NY Giants to reel off six consecutive wins after opening the season 0-3 last year. If O?Brien can maintain his ways against losing teams (20-4 SU in his career) and stay even against winning opposition, his troops could be playoff-bound again in 2019.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Houston is 8-0 ATS when favored versus foes coming off a double-digit loss under O?Brien.

PLAY ON: at Indianapolis (10/20)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Texans are 8-15 SU and 7-13-3 ATS in games after committing zero turnovers.


Indianapolis Colts

TEAM THEME: LUCK LIVES HERE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9.5 (over -140)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 129.5

With three of the first 59 picks in the draft and six of the first 135, the Colts slayed the NFL draft this season. Coupled with a 2018 draft class that was headlined by two first-team All-Pros going into this season, it?s a precursor of what?s to come in Naptown these days. A healthy Andrew Luck, for the first time in three off-season?s, underscores the strength of what?s being built in Indy ? a group that should be the strongest surrounding Luck since he came out of Stanford in 2012. The 2018 Colts won nine of their last 10 regular-season games, then a playoff game before falling to the Chiefs and league MVP Patrick Mahomes in the divisional round of the playoffs. Adding elusive Ohio State WR Parris Campbell gives Luck a true home run threat. Paired with T.Y. Hilton and TE Eric Ebron, the passing game suddenly becomes lethal.

Better yet, Frank Reich capitalized on an exceptionally strong defensive draft with 7 of his first eight selections. It?s no coincidence that Reich has made six appearances in the Super Bowl, both as a player and a coach. Indy also struck gold in the Free Agent market when they landed former All-Pro LB Justin Houston from Kansas City. Yes, it?s safe to say the future in Indianapolis looks bright.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: All four Super Bowls the Colts franchise has played in ? 1968, 1970, 2006 and 2009 ? have taken place in Miami, Florida, site of Super Bowl LIV this season.

PLAY ON: at Kansas City (10/6)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Colts are 40-12 SU and 38-14 ATS in games in which they outyarded foes behind Andrew Luck.


Jacksonville Jaguars

TEAM THEME: ENDANGERED SPECIES

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 (under -130)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 132

Get used to not seeing much of the Jaguars this season. Despite the fact that Super Bowl-winning QB Nick Foles will be behind center for Jacksonville in 2019, the only prime-time games for the Jags this season occurs in Week Three at home against Tennessee (unless, of course, they are flexed during the second half of the season). It?s what happens when you fall off the radar in the NFL after going from 12 wins in 2017 to 5 wins last year. And speaking of the schedule, for only the seventh time in the franchise?s 25-year history, the Jags will get a home game to finish the season. FYI: they are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in these games. In a scheduling quirk, the Jaguars will have a 34-day stretch between home games sandwiched between October 27 and December 1.

Plus, in addition to adding Foles to the roster, Jacksonville struck gold in the first two rounds of the draft with DE Josh Allen and OT Jawaan Taylor, both expected to be immediate impact players. If Foles can resurrect an offense that fell 11 points and 58 yards per game last season, the Jags always-reliable defense will have a chance to shine. Remember, Foles is 15-6 SU and 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 or fewer points, as well as 13-5 SU from Game Thirteen out. His reunion with former Eagles OC John DeFilippo should pay huge dividends. Play accordingly.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Jacksonville is 1-7 SUATS against teams from the NFC South since 2011.

PLAY ON: vs. Kansas City (9/8)

INSIDE THE STATS: After going 16-6 at home ITS the previous 3 years, the Jaguars went 2-5 last year.


Tennessee Titans

TEAM THEME: LET IT RIDE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 (under -130)
Opponents? Collective Season Win Total: 134

Mike Vrabel?s rookie season with the Titans paralleled that of QB Marcus Mariota. A third-straight 9-7 season last year was enough to keep the wolves off Vrabel, but in Mariota?s case, it?s time to let it ride with Tennessee picking up the $20 million-dollar fifth-year option of his rookie contract as the No. 2-overall selection in 2015. The Titans hedged that bet when they traded for Ryan Tannehill, a 2012 first-round pick who failed to materialize with Miami. Hence, should Mariota fail to deliver the goods, you can look for Tennessee to do what the Dolphins did with Tannehill and cut the cord. According to NFL analyst Charlie Casserly, Tennessee?s wide receiver additions of Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown (2nd round selection), along with former 1st round WR Corey Davis, can take the offense to another level. We like quality quarterbacks in contract years and with it look for Mariota to turn loose this season.

On the other side of the ball, expect veteran TE Cam Wake to make an immediate difference. He was the glue to the Miami defense and with his athleticism and desire (he?s a ?young 37? who made an immediate impact in summer OTA?s). He?s also a mentor who considers it a responsibility to pass on knowledge to younger teammates. Look for these Nashville cats to once again be in the AFC South hunt.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tennessee is 11-5 SUATS all-time versus NFC South opponents, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus .500 or fewer foes.

PLAY ON: vs. Indianapolis Colts (9/15)

INSIDE THE STATS: The Titans have gone only 15-25 ITS at home the L5Y.

 

[Cnotes53]

HOF Notes - Broncos vs. Falcons
July 29, 2019
By VI News

Denver Broncos

Head Coach: Vic Fangio

Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan, Brett Rypien (Rookie)

Following a pair of losing seasons, the Broncos brought in a first-time head coach in Vic Fangio and a Super Bowl winning quarterback in Joe Flacco to try and turn things around. Denver is four seasons removed from capturing a Super Bowl title, but the lack of a steady quarterback since the retirement of Peyton Manning has been the issue.

Flacco will try to resurrect his career and the Broncos' franchise as Denver enters the preseason with a solid 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS mark the last two exhibition campaigns.

For updated injury reports on the Broncos, we suggest following Ryan O'Halloran and Kyle Fredrickson via Twitter.

Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Dan Quinn

Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Kurt Benkert

The Falcons suffered through a rough start in 2018 by losing nine of their first 13 games before winning their final three to finish at 7-9. Atlanta missed the playoffs for the first time in three seasons in spite of stars Matt Ryan and Julio Jones not missing a single game.

Running back Devonta Freeman was limited to two games due to various injuries as the offense was held to 20 points or less in seven of nine losses.

Atlanta hasn't put much stock into the preseason the last two seasons by not winning once in eight tries, while scoring a total of 27 points in four exhibition losses in 2018.

For updated injury reports on the Broncos, we suggest following D. Orlando Ledbetter and Jason Butt via Twitter.

Preseason Coaching Stats

Vic Fangio, Denver ? First preseason game

Dan Quinn, Atlanta ? 5-11 SU, 5-11 ATS, 5-11 O/U

Preseason Results - Last Two Years

Denver

2018 (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U)

Denver (+1, 36.5) 28 vs. Minnesota 42
Denver (-3, 43) 23 vs. Chicago 24
Denver (+3, 43) 29 at Washington 17
Denver (PK, 36) 21 at Arizona 10

2017 (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)

Denver (+1, 36.5) 24 at Chicago 17
Denver (+3, 39.5) 33 at San Francisco 14
Denver (-3, 42.5) 20 vs. Green Bay 17
Denver (-2.5, 36) 30 vs. Arizona 2

Atlanta

2018 (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, 1-3 O/U)

Atlanta (+4, 36.5) 0 at N.Y. Jets 17
Atlanta (+2, 42.5) 14 vs. Kansas City 28
Atlanta (+4, 38) 6 at Jacksonville 17
Atlanta (+2, 36.5) 7 vs. Miami 34

2017 (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, 1-3 O/U)

Atlanta (+1, 36) 20 at Miami 23
Atlanta (-3, 39) 13 at Pittsburgh 17
Atlanta (-3.5, 44) 14 vs. Arizona 24
Atlanta (-3, 37) 7 vs. Jacksonville 13

Hall of Fame Game History & Trends

Recent Trends:

-- Atlanta is making its first appearance in the HOF game since a 21-17 victory over San Diego in 1994.

-- Denver owns a 1-2 record in the HOF game with its last appearance coming in 2004 with a 20-17 loss to Washington.

-- The NFC won five straight HOF games when facing a team from the AFC prior to Baltimore's 17-16 triumph over Chicago in 2018 .

-- The 'under' cashed in last year's HOF contest between Baltimore and Chicago as the two teams combined for two touchdowns in the final three quarters.

-- Four of the last five HOF games have been decided by four points or less.

HALL OF FAME GAME HISTORY (1962-2018)
Year Result
2018 Baltimore 17 Chicago 16
2017 Dallas 20 Arizona 18
2016 PPD
2015 Minnesota 14 Pittsburgh 3
2014 N.Y. Giants 17 Buffalo 13
2013 Dallas 24 Miami 20
2012 New Orleans 17 Arizona 10
2011 PPD
2010 Dallas 16 Cincinnati 7
2009 Tennessee 21 Buffalo 18
2008 Washington 30 Indianapolis 16
2007 Pittsburgh 20 New Orleans 7
2006 Oakland 16 Philadelphia 10
2005 Chicago 27 Miami 24
2004 Washington 20 Denver 17
2003 Kansas City 9 Green Bay 0
2002 N.Y. Giants 34 Houston 17
2001 St. Louis 17 Miami 10
2000 New England 20 San Francisco 0
1999 Cleveland 20 Dallas 17
1998 Tampa Bay 30 Pittsburgh 6
1997 Minnesota 28 Seattle 26
1996 Indianapolis 10 New Orleans 3
1995 Carolina 20 Jacksonville 14
1994 Atlanta 21 San Diego 17
1993 L.A. Raiders 19 Green Bay 3
1992 N.Y. Jets 41 Philadelphia 14
1991 Detroit 14 Denver 3
1990 Chicago 13 Cleveland 0
1989 Washington 31 Buffalo 6
1988 Cincinnati 14 L.A. Rams 7
1987 San Francisco 20 Kansas City 7
1986 New England 21 St. Louis 16
1985 N.Y. Giants 21 Houston 20
1984 Seattle 38 Tampa Bay 0
1983 Pittsburgh 27 New Orleans 14
1982 Minnesota 30 Baltimore 14
1981 Cleveland 24 Atlanta 10
1980 San Diego 0 Green Bay 0
1979 Oakland 20 Dallas 13
1978 Philadelphia 17 Miami 3
1977 Chicago 20 N.Y. Jets 6
1976 Denver 10 Detroit 7
1975 Washington 17 Cincinnati 9
1974 St. Louis 21 Buffalo 13
1973 San Francisco 20 New England 7
1972 Kansas City 23 N.Y. Giants 17
1971 L.A. Rams 17 Houston 6
1970 New Orleans 14 Minnesota 13
1969 Green Bay 38 Atlanta 24
1968 Chicago 30 Dallas 24
1967 Philadelphia 28 Cleveland 13
1965 Washington 20 Detroit 3
1964 Baltimore 48 Pittsburgh 17
1963 Pittsburgh 16 Cleveland 7
1962 St. Louis 17 N.Y. Giants 17