Cnotes53 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

Cnotes53

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NFL Week 9 Essentials
November 5, 2017

Here?s all you need to know about Week 9?s slate:

Sunday, Nov. 5


Denver at Philadelphia: Turning away from Trevor Siemian after another poor performance on Monday night, the Broncos will hand the reins of their team back to Brock Osweiler. After a tour as the man in Houston, then as a trade chip and clipboard holder in Cleveland, the 6-foot-7 Osweiler will start a game for Denver for the first time since 2015. He's thrown four passes this season but does have plenty of experience, even throwing and running for a TD in a playoff win in January. Head coach Vance Joseph said there will be no scaling back of the playbook this week. A familiar face, WR Emmanuel Sanders, will try to make his life easier against a vulnerable Eagles pass defense. He's getting back to full strength from a nasty ankle injury that has also contributed to the Broncos' poor play, although probably not to the level of degree that the shoddy offensive line and turnover-prone Siemian have.

Since Week 3, Denver is a minus-10 in turnover differential, so count on a cautious approach against a fierce Eagles front seven. If weather conditions are sloppy on a potentially rainy day, the approach will be downright conservative and we could see a lot of Osweiler trying to keep drives alive with his feet.

The Eagles do have some of their own issues to be wary of. Carson Wentz's security blanket, TE Zach Ertz, won't play through a hamstring injury that kept him out of practices. He leads all tight ends in most statistical categories for a reason and will be missed against Denver's defense. RB Jay Ajayi is expected to play after joining the team from Miami, so we'll see how he fits in on a day where they should also be interested in establishing the run.

L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants: L.A. is favored to improve to 6-2 at the halfway point, and is looking to become the first team to open 4-0 on the road this season. That doesn't even include the Rams' 33-0 win over Arizona in London, so it's clear that this group doesn't mind going out and performing from an opposing locker room. Currently the healthiest team in football, the Rams can't afford a misstep here since they've had one of the lightest schedules thus far, taking advantage to put themselves in this position.

New York will look to make the best of an awful season that could ulitmately cost Ben McAdoo his job given all the player backlash. Janoris Jenkins failed to show up for practice Tuesday and got suspended, continuing a pattern of defensive players angry with what's gone down this season. Meanwhile, the offensive line continues to be a mess that has hampered continuity, so it's not surprising that thhis line moved to 4.5 after opening 3.5.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Jameis Winston's shoulder is getting healthier, but there's no reason to expect to see him at 100 percent. He's in there because it's in his nature to try to lead his offense in a must-win situation, but the injury has affected his consistency even though he still gives the team a better chance here than Ryan Fitzapatrick. Turnovers could factor in as an issue since he'll be going up against a Saints defense that ranks first in the entire NFL in passing yards per game allowed, passer rating and interceptions since Week 3, forcing 11 turnovers.

Drew Brees is again leading the league in completion percentage and has flourished despite the Saints running the ball more with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, so we'll see if the Bucs defense manages to disrup their rhythm in spite of the absence of top corner Brett Grimes. It's going to be on the front seven to generate pressure on an offense that's humming in spite of constant reshuffling along the offensive line. Tampa Bay must generate pressure or it will add to that ugly number currently seeing them surrendering a 34-point average in road games.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jaguars woke up Sunday as a playoff team and could potentially be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North if they get help from the Ravens in Tennessee. Outside of the Texans' line move after Watson's injury news was announced, Jacksonville saw its number move most, going from a 3.5-point favorite to 6-6.5 once star rookie RB Leonard Fournette was upgraded to probable coming off last week's absence due to an ankle injury but was rendered out Sunday due to a violation of team rules. With Chris Ivory in good form, Jacksonville does have a back in place to take pressure off Blake Bortles and will have its offensive line back intact with Brandon Linder returning.

The Bengals survived at home against Indianapolis to win for the third time in four games but now open a crucial two-game stretch looking to prove that their offense can hold up against a Jags defense that is on a record sack pace. Andy Dalton has proven he can excel against a relentless pass rush before, but he's also melted down in the face of many, making him the x-factor here. Considering how strong Jacksonville has also been against the run, it's Dalton who must make life easier for rookie Joe Mixon and the run game, not vice versa.

Atlanta at Carolina: Cam Newton complained on Instagram that he'll "never understand" the move to part ways with WR Kelvin Benjamin, but he's also not moping about it. Expect Devin Funchess to get more balls thrown his way and Christian McCaffrey to also find himself more touches. While the trade is unlikely to have an immediate crippling impact, what matters most is that center Ryan Kalil remains out, which means there will be more pressure on Newton to execute while avoiding mistakes. The Panthers are 5-0 when he throws less than one pick and seemingly need him more than ever here since the loser here falls to third in the NFC West.

Matt Ryan has had a shaky season, but snapped a three-game losing streak in the driving rain in New York and looked more sure of himself than he has in weeks. He'll have to be sharp against the Panthers, who are simply a different defense when Luke Kuechly plays. He was cleared from concussion protocol and instantly dominated in the 17-3 win at Tampa Bay. Ryan will have RBs Davonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the mix in addition to a recieving corps that's at full strength, so he's hoping to reverse a trend that has seen the

Indianapolis at Houston: Tom Savage is 1-2 as Texans starter and couldn't take advantage of the opportunity to take the reins at the beginning of the season, getting pulled after a half against Jacksonville. He should have more time against the Colts than he did against the Jags, so we'll see if he can push the ball down the field, as was the original plan this season before rookie Deshaun Watson had to come in and do that. Given the abrupt nature of how this injury went down, Savage will have to find a way to get his offense on the same page quickly. That task was made easier by the news that CB Vontae Davis stayed behind in Indianapolis, which means a Colts defemse that surrenders over 30 points per game will be without their top defensive back.

The Colts come off a 24-23 loss at the Bengals and will be playing consecutive home games for the first time. After being shut out the previous week at home by Jacksonville, there were some strides made on offense, but Jacoby Brisett's pick-six proved costly. After opening as a 13-point underdog when it appeared Watson was playing, Houston is now a 7-point 'dog.

Baltimore at Tennessee:
Although the Titans are currently vying for the AFC South lead, this could ultimately be an extremly important game as far as the wild card picture goes. They're looking for their third straight home win and host an equally vital game against the Titans next week, so this is a crucial stretch and they're fortunate to be getting healthier as it approaches. Only tight end Delanie Walker's status is much of a mystery, but QB Marcus Mariota is close to 100 percent and the expectation is that we'll see a version of him much closer to the one we saw last season due to a hamstring injury. Top pick Corey Davis, who found the end zone in Week 1 but hasn't been heard from since, is also deemed ready to go.

The Ravens will have Joe Flacco back off concussion protocol and was looking sharper of late, so the hope there is that he'll be able to put his veteran team in postion to capitalize on a schedule that sees them facing backups the next few weeks in Green Bay and against Houston. If Baltimore can get out of Nashville victorious it's possible it can go on a run. Over the past two weeks, the defense has gotten significantly healthier, though the offense still has major issues with RB Terrance West out, TE Maxx Williams back and only four "healthy" WRs available for this game in Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Chris Moore.

Arizona at San Francisco:
The Cardinals are hoping to flush their brutal performance in London, but it's hard to say they can do that completely since a major issue followed them back across the pond with Carson Palmer sidelined basically the rest of the way. Although they've said the plan will be to feed Adrian Peterson, they're going to need Drew Stanton to be serviceable given the fact that the receiving corps is finally healthy for the first time. Larry Fitzgerald has terrorized the 49ers throughout his career, doing so even with Stanton under center.

The 49ers have acquired some hope in Jimmy Garroppolo, landing him from behind Tom Brady's shadow with Patriots. He won't play today and may not participate all season with the team in full tank mode. Left tackle Joe Staley, top receiver Pierre Garcon and rookie first-rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster are among those ruled out for today, so ending a five-game losing streak at the hands of Arizona will be complicated and likely require help from Stanton. The Cards are a 2.5-point road favorite.

Washington at Seattle:
Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 452 yards and four scores and has a healthy Jimmy Graham producing, so the addition of an All-Pro left tackle in Duane Brown could yield huge results since the team has been working with the equivalent of scotch tape and just got themselves a quality adhesive. Yes, Brown is starting immediately.

Washington QB Cousins won't have multiple starting offensive linemen blocking for him, so this is going to be a great test of his ability to work with what he's got in order to make plays against an elite, albeit, banged-up defense. The weather is likely to be a factor too since rain and/or snow flurries are expected, so there are a ton of variables in play here that will likely make this a game-time call or no-play.

The Redskins won't have Jordan Reed or Jamison Crowder to help Cousins create opportunities and will utilize the elusive Chris Thompson to try and create chunk plays against the Seahawks, who will be missing Earl Thomas due to a hamstring injury that hampered him last year as the Texans had their way with the Legion of Boom. Bradley McDougald will fill in, and Seattle will still have Kam Chancellor (ankle) and should field linebacker Bobby Wagner to try and limit Cousins' exploiting the middle of the field. DT Sheldon Richardson is a game-time decision with an oblique issue that has held him back of late.

Kansas City at Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott won another battle to play after it looked like the Cowboys would have to make do without him as late as Friday morning. Although his normal practice routine was interrupted, there's no reason to believe that will be detrimental or that Dallas would've been better off with its other two backs. Elliott has been impressive of late, playing himself back into shape, and the line shift that made Dallas a favorite in this matchup was justified given his three consecutive 100-plus-yard games. Since the bye, he's averaged five yards per carry.

The Chiefs will try to slow down a Dallas offense that has averaged 32.4 points over the past five, welcoming Tamba Hali back to aid the cause. With Dee Ford out due to a back issue, the timing is right, but it remains to be seen how rusty he is. Kansas City isn't likely to intercept Dak Prescott three times like they managed against Siemian, so they'll probably need to continue putting up the points, which makes the high total in this game (53.5) understandable. The Chiefs are averaging 36 points per away game and would be 4-0 if not for that memorable Thursday night loss in Oakland the last time they were on the road.

Oakland at Miami: Sunday nights are for saving your season if you're the Raiders. Heading into a bye week, their team will be far more likely to be enthused and engaged in preparing for a date with New England in Mexico if they're 4-5 than they would be at 3-6. Attempting to stave off a doomed mind set falls on the shoulders Derek Carr, who couldn't get his offense to do much of anything in their last Sunday night showing, a Sept. 24 27-10 loss at Washington where the receivers couldn't catch and the offensive line couldn't block. After a 2-0 start, the Raiders have dropped five of six, which includes an 0-3 mark on the road where they've been outscored 77-34. Moving on from the disappointment begins tonight. All that's left to be seen is which direction this group is going.

In swapping Ajayi for a fourth-rounder, the Dolphins are turning the page themselves. While it's true knee issues have kept him from having the impact he had in lifting the Dolphins last season, it's still a disappointment that the work Adam Gase put in leading the team to the playoffs was completely stunted. The '17 version remains magically above .500, but has an extremely difficult schedule over the second half and would do their chances a huge favor picking up a win here. That requires putting a 40-0 nightmare in Baltimore completely behind them, so Jay Cutler's return from broken ribs is a welcome sight. To be fair, that last sentence could definitely have ended with a question mark. He's slated to start instead of Matt Moore.
 

Cnotes53

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Sunday, November 5

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DENVER (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 1) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 128-179 ATS (-68.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at CAROLINA (5 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 6) at HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 8) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 6

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

Cnotes53

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INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 21 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
San Francisco is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Arizona

WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland


Monday, November 6

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
 

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game
Bills (5-2) @ Jets (3-5)? Buffalo is +14 in turnovers; they?ve had 3+ takeaways in their last four games. Bills are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 6 or less points. Jets lost last three games by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of those games. Last time Jets trailed at halftime was Week 2. Gang Green is 3-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points. Buffalo (-8) beat Jets 21-12 in season opener, outrushing Jets 190-38, converting 8-17 on 3rd down; Bills are 6-2 in last eight series games, but lost five of last seven visits here. Three of last four Jet games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-7 vs spread. Since 2014, Buffalo is 1-5-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

Sunday's games
Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)? Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they?re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR?s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they?re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ?13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ?86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.

Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)? Rams won four of their last five games; they?re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants? last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ?01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)? New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they?re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they?re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they?re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs? opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs? last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.

Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)? Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven?t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette?s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they?re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven?t been plus in TO?s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they?re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)? This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they?re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina?s defense hasn?t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD?s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they?re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.

Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)? Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD?s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they?re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD?s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.

Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)? Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD?s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they?re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.

Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)? Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won?t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they?re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers? last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona?s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.

Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)? 8 of 15 TD?s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they?re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they?ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD?s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they?re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they?re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.

Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)? Ezekiel Elliott?s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they?re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys? last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they?re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ?75- their last visit here was in ?05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.

Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)? Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they?ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they?ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ?14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ?07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.

Monday's game
Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3)? Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn?t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD?s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt? Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers? absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn?t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.
 

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 9 NFL lines are going to move

The Los Angeles Rams are allowing just 11 points per game over their last three contests and are coming off a shutout win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

The Jags have quietly and efficiently built the best defense in the league. They?re the best against the pass, first in QB sacks, tops in points allowed and sixth in total yards allowed.

They do give up some yards on the ground, and that?s where the 3-5 Bengals will have to attack in they want to hang in and remain viable in the AFC North.

Oddly, the Jags seem to be worse (1-2) at home than they are on the road (3-1), but that doesn?t mean much considering the small sample size.

Jacksonville needs to keep pace with Tennessee, which has won two straight and appears to be getting better. There?s an opportunity to bet both sides and win both ways (also known as middle) with the line opening at -2 in some books and moving to -4 in others.

Game to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of nearly nine points a game but somehow have managed to stay afloat in a competitive AFC East division.

Much of their ugly point differential is attributable to that 40-0 turd they dropped at Baltimore, but many teams struggle playing on Thursday night.

At any rate, Miami will benefit from a few extra days of rest and will be facing Raiders team that will be making its second straight cross-country trip to the East Coast.

The problem is at quarterback, where Jay Cutler has been out with a rib injury. He?ll play if he can, but if he can?t go, then Matt Moore (zero TDs, two INTs vs. the Ravens) will be thrown to the wolves again.

It might be a good idea to hang on a bit, as this game might be a PK if there is good news on Cutler.

Total to watch

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (43.5)

Can it get any worse for the Giants? They were out of the playoffs before September was over, their best offensive player (Odell Beckham Jr.) is done for the year and there is talk that it might be time to sit down Eli Manning and get a look at a backup who might be competing for the No. 1 job when training camp starts next summer.

Yikes.

The Giants are one of six teams averaging fewer than 300 total years a game, and appear to be catching the Rams at a bad time. LA is allowing just 11 points per game over its last three contests and is coming off a shutout win over the Cardinals.
 

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Sunday, November 5

Denver @ Philadelphia

Game 451-452
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
130.414
Philadelphia
136.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Over

LA Rams @ NY Giants


Game 453-454
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
135.530
NY Giants
134.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans


Game 455-456
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.667
New Orleans
137.064
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7); Under

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville


Game 457-458
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.765
Jacksonville
137.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-4 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Carolina


Game 459-460
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.214
Carolina
130.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
Pick
44
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
Under

Indianapolis @ Houston


Game 461-462
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
120.260
Houston
140.952
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 20 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 13
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-13); Over

Baltimore @ Tennessee


Game 463-464
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.796
Tennessee
134.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco


Game 465-466
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
122.638
San Francisco
122.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over

Washington @ Seattle


Game 467-468
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.374
Seattle
135.883
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ Dallas


Game 469-470
November 5, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
140.489
Dallas
133.073
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
Pick
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
Over

Oakland @ Miami


Game 471-472
November 5, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.579
Miami
121.724
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 9
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Over



Monday, November 6

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
November 6, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
137.795
Green Bay
130.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2 1/2); Over
 

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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LAR at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +5.5

DEN at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -7.0
O 41.0 *****

IND at HOU 01:00 PM
O 45.0 *****

CIN at JAC 01:00 PM
O 38.0

BAL at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN -3.0 *****

ATL at CAR 01:00 PM
ATL -3.0 *****
U 42.5 *****

TB at NO 01:00 PM
TB +7.0
U 54.5 *****

WAS at SEA 04:05 PM
WAS +9.5
O 45.0 *****

ARI at SF 04:05 PM
SF +2.5

KC at DAL 04:25 PM
KC +2.5 *****
 

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NFL Today, Week 9
November 5, 2017


SCOREBOARD

Monday, Nov. 6


Detroit at Green Bay, 8:30 p.m. EST. The NFC North rival Lions (3-4) and Packers (4-3) meet on Monday night looking to improve their offenses. While Detroit has moved the ball through the air behind Matthew Stafford, the Lions have struggled in the run game and inside the red zone. Green Bay is trying to get its passing attack back on track with backup Brett Hundley making his second start in place of injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

---

STARS

Passing


- Jared Goff, Rams, set career highs with four touchdown throws and 311 yards passing in Los Angeles' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants.

- Carson Wentz, Eagles, tossed four touchdown passes to give him an NFL-leading 23, and the Philadelphia Eagles routed the Denver Broncos 51-23.

- Kirk Cousins, Redskins, drove Washington 70 yards in 35 seconds, capped by Rob Kelley's 1-yard touchdown run with less than a minute remaining to stun the Seattle Seahawks 17-14.

- Jacoby Brissett, Colts, threw for 308 yards and two TDs in Indianapolis' 20-14 win at Houston.

- Drew Brees, Saints, completed 81.2 percent of his passes (22 of 27) for 263 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans' 30-10 victory over Tampa Bay.

---

Rushing

- Adrian Peterson, Cardinals, carried a career-high 37 times for 159 yards in Arizona's 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco.

- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ran for 93 yards and a TD on 27 carries in Dallas' 28-17 win over Kansas City. Elliott's six-game suspension was placed on hold by a federal court, allowing him to play.

- Jay Ajayi, Eagles, had 77 yards rushing and one score - a 46-yarder - in his Philadelphia debut, a 51-23 rout of Denver.

- Todd Gurley, Rams, ran for two touchdowns to help Los Angeles roll past the New York Giants 51-17.

- Corey Clement, Eagles, rushed for two scores and also caught a TD pass in Philadelphia's 51-23 win over Denver.

- Rob Kelley, Redskins, had two TD runs, including a go-ahead 1-yard score in Washington's 17-14 comeback victory at Seattle.

---

Receiving


- T.Y. Hilton, Colts, had 175 yards receiving with two touchdowns to help Indianapolis halt a three-game skid with a 20-14 win at Houston.

- Alshon Jeffery, Eagles, had touchdown catches of 32 and 4 yards in Philadelphia's 51-23 victory over Denver.

- Marqise Lee, Jaguars, had eight receptions for 75 yards and a TD in Jacksonville's 23-7 victory over Cincinnati.

- Robert Woods, Rams, caught two of Jared Goff's four touchdown tosses in Los Angeles' 51-17 win over the New York Giants.

- Alvin Kamara, Saints, had six catches for 84 yards, including a 36-yard TD, and also scored on a 6-yard run in New Orleans' 30-10 win over Tampa Bay.

- Terrence Williams, Cowboys, caught a career-best nine passes for 141 yards in Dallas' 29-17 victory over Kansas City.

---

Special Teams

- Justin Hardee, Saints, blocked Bryan Anger's punt and returned it 7 yards for a touchdown in New Orleans' 30-10 win over Tampa Bay.

- Jaydon Mickens, Jaguars, returned a punt 63 yards for a score in the fourth quarter that sealed Jacksonville's 23-7 in over Cincinnati.

- Greg Zuerlein, Rams, booted three field goals and made all six of his extra points in Los Angeles' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants.

---

Defense

- Jabaal Sheard, Colts, sealed Indianapolis' 20-14 win at Houston with a sack - his second of the game - and forced fumble as time ran out.

- Kevin Byard, Titans, intercepted two passes in Tennessee's 23-20 win over Baltimore, giving him five over his past two games.

- Keanu Neal, Falcons, forced two fumbles by Jonathan Stewart and recovered one in Atlanta's 20-17 loss to Jacksonville.

- Brandon Marshall, Broncos, scooped up the fumble after Von Miller stripped Nick Foles of the football, and ran it back 19 yards for a TD in Denver's 51-23 loss at Philadelphia.

- Dwight Freeney, Seahawks, had two sacks in Seattle's 17-14 loss to Washington, giving him three in the two games since joining the team.

---

STREAKS & STATS


Alex Smith threw his first interception of the season in Kansas City's 28-17 loss at Dallas. It ended a streak of 293 passes without a pick for Smith, who was 25 of 34 for 263 yards and two TDs. ... The Rams' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants was Los Angeles' fifth win in six games to improve to 6-2, the franchise's best start since 2001, when the club, then in St. Louis, went 14-2 in the regular season and eventually lost to the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. ... The Giants allowed the biggest offensive performance against them in a home game since Cleveland beat them 52-21 in the regular-season finale in 1964. ... Cincinnati finished with a season-low 148 yards in a 23-7 loss to Jacksonville, the Bengals' worst output since a 27-0 drubbing at Indianapolis in 2014 in which they managed just 135 yards. ... Denver's Demaryius Thomas caught his first TD pass this season, a 1-yard grab in the fourth quarter of the Broncos' 51-23 loss at Philadelphia. He hadn't scored since Nov. 13, 2016.

---

MILESTONES


Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Chargers and Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles became the first quarterbacks selected Nos. 1 and 2 in the same draft to each throw four or more touchdown passes on the same day. Goff, the top pick in 2016, had four touchdown throws in Los Angeles' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants on Sunday. Wentz, No. 2 that year, also threw four TD passes in Philadelphia's 51-23 victory over Denver. ... Eli Manning of the Giants became the seventh NFL quarterback to reach the 50,000-mark with his completion to Sterling Shepard in the fourth quarter against the Rams. ... Adam Vinatieri, who moved past Gary Anderson for second on the NFL's career scoring list on Sunday with 2,442 points, added a 22-yard field goal for the Colts to make it 10-0 in the second. ... Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald moved past Tim Brown into sixth place on the career list for yards receiving with 14,953. ... Arizona linebacker Karlos Dansby had an interception at San Francisco, becoming the fifth player with at least 40 sacks and 20 INTs in a career, joining Brian Urlacher, Ray Lewis, Wilber Marshall and Seth Joyner.

---

ALL DAY


Arizona's Adrian Peterson carried a career-high 37 times for 159 yards to take pressure off backup quarterback Drew Stanton and lead the Cardinals to a 20-10 victory over the winless San Francisco 49ers. The 32-year-old Peterson had 10 more carries in his third game with the Cardinals (4-4) than he had his first four weeks combined with the Saints. He posted the most carries ever for a player in his 30s and topped the 100-yard mark for the second time since being acquired in a trade last month. Peterson got the milestone in his 130th career game, fourth fastest in NFL history. Only Hall of Famers Jim Brown (115), Eric Dickerson (118) and Barry Sanders (125) got there faster. Peterson also moved into 15th place on the career rushing list with 12,142 yards, jumping ahead of Thurman Thomas.

---

SOARING EAGLES

Philadelphia improved to 8-1 with a 51-23 win over Denver, marking the fifth time in franchise history the Eagles have started a season 8-1 or better - joining the 1949, 1960, 1980 and 2004 squads. The Eagles advanced to the NFL championship game or Super Bowl in each of the previous four instances.

---

NEW ORLEANS SWING


New Orleans defeated Tampa Bay 30-10 to improve to 6-2 with its sixth straight victory. The Saints are the third team since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win their next six games after an 0-2 start. The other teams to accomplish the feat - the 1993 Dallas Cowboys and 2007 New York Giants - both won the Super Bowl in that season.

---

DAK ATTACK

Dallas' Dak Prescott threw two touchdown passes and added a rushing touchdown in the Cowboys' 28-17 win over Kansas City. Prescott has 39 TD throws and 10 rushing scores in his career, joining Carolina's Cam Newton as the only players in NFL history to have at least 35 TD passes and 10 TD runs in their first two seasons.

---

WOW FACTOR

Kansas City's Tyreek Hill had a weaving 56-yard touchdown reception against Dallas just before halftime of the Cowboys' 28-17 win. Trailing 14-3, the Chiefs were at their 44 with 2 seconds left when the Cowboys used three linemen and a linebacker near the line of scrimmage and dropped everyone else back. Hill caught an easy toss from Alex Smith at the Cowboys 42 and started toward the goal line with three blockers in front. The speedy Hill motored around Orlando Scandrick at the 25, cut behind two blocks from Demarcus Robinson inside the 10, and sidestepped over-pursuing linebacker Anthony Hitchens to finish the stunning TD. It was Hill's ninth career touchdown of at least 50 yards in his 25th game. He trails only Gale Sayers (10) for the most 50-yard TDs in a player's first 25 games to begin a career.

---

STICKY FINGERS


Tennessee safety Kevin Byard had two interceptions in the Titans' 23-20 win over Baltimore, giving him five in his last two games. That ties him with Mike Haynes (1976), Willie Buchanon (1978), Albert Lewis (1985) and DeAngelo Hall (2010) for the most by an NFL player in consecutive games since the 1970 merger.

---

DING! DING!

Cincinnati receiver A.J. Green and Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey got into it after Ramsey pushed Green to the ground at the end of a running play. Green grabbed Ramsey around the neck and slammed him to the ground. Green then delivered numerous punches to Ramsey's helmet and put another MMA-style choke hold on Ramsey. It was the kind of aggressive attack that could lead to league discipline, maybe even a suspension. Green and Ramsey were ejected. ... In New Orleans, a scuffle started in the third quarter when Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston vigorously pressed his finger into the back of Saints rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore's helmet during a dead-ball period between a failed third-down pass and a punt. Lattimore turned and shoved Winston, after which Bucs receiver Mike Evans leveled Lattimore from behind. Saints defensive back De'Vante Harris then came charging into the melee to defend Lattimore. As the scuffle was broken up, Saints coach Sean Payton marched halfway across the field, gesturing angrily at the Tampa Bay bench before officials chased him back to the Saints' sideline. Evans was called for unnecessary roughness.

---

RUNNING PANTHERS

Cam Newton ran for 86 yards and a scored on a head-first diving 9-yard touchdown run as the Carolina Panthers erased an early 10-point deficit to beat the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons 20-17. With wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin traded to Buffalo, the Panthers turned to back to their running game, racking up a season-high 201 yards on the ground. Newton led the Panthers' rushing attack for the fourth straight week, while rookie Christian McCaffrey added a career-high 66 yards rushing and a touchdown.

---

SIDELINED

Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette was inactive for violating a team rule. Jacksonville made the surprise announcement 90 minutes before kickoff. It's unclear what Fournette did to draw coach Doug Marrone's punishment. ... Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston left Sunday's game at New Orleans with shoulder soreness after the first half. Winston was 7 of 13 for 67 yards and the Bucs' extended their losing streak to five games in a 30-10 rout. Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced him. Winston sprained the AC joint in his right shoulder on Oct. 15 at Arizona, and he landed hard on the shoulder when he was sacked in the final minute of the first half against the Saints. ... Bucs starting defensive end William Gholston was carted off the field with a neck injury. Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said Gholston, who moved his arms and legs while the Bucs medical staff treated him on the field, was getting neurological tests at a hospital. ... Cowboys star receiver Dez Bryant left his team's 28-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs with a sprained ankle in the third quarter. ... Seatttle lost running back Eddie Lacy in the first quarter to a groin injury in their 17-14 loss to the Redskins.

---

SPEAKING

''I should have walked off in that situation,'' Green said. ''It's never going to happen again. I regret my actions. Whatever my punishments are I accept them because I put myself in that situation. ... I've got to control my emotions better. I've got to handle my stuff better. I can't put myself in a situation like that, hurt my team and not be able to play.'' - Cincinnati's A.J. Green on his brawl with Jacksonville's Jalen Ramsey.

---

''NBA2K when guys are hot, you get that red ring around you. I'm in the zone right now.'' - Tennessee cornerback Kevin Byard, who had two interceptions against Baltimore and has five in his last two games.
 

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SuperContest Picks - Week 9
November 5, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9

1) Indianapolis +13 (1,675) WIN

2) L.A. Rams -3.5 (944) WIN

3) Dallas +1 (824) WIN

4) Denver +8.5 (766) LOSS

5) Atlanta +1 (715) LOSS

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 9 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Buffalo (-3) 283 N.Y. Jets (+3) 174
Denver (+8.5) 766 Philadelphia (-8.5) 420
L.A. Rams (-3.5) 944 N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 332
Tampa Bay (+7) 517 New Orleans (-7) 608
Cincinnati (+5) 423 Jacksonville (-5) 604
Atlanta (+1) 715 Carolina (-1) 443
Indianapolis (+13) 1675 Houston (-13) 70
Baltimore (+5) 471 Tennessee (-5) 379
Arizona (-2) 338 San Francisco (+2) 342
Washington (+7) 241 Seattle (-7) 627
Kansas City (-1) 522 Dallas (+1) 824
Oakland (-3) 561 Miami (+3) 382
Detroit (-2.5) 483 Green Bay (+2.5) 426

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
 

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MNF - Lions at Packers
November 4, 2017


LAST WEEK

The Lions (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) dropped their third straight game following a 3-1 start in a 20-15 home defeat to the Steelers as three-point underdogs. Detroit failed to reach the end zone as kicker Matt Prater knocked down five field goals, while the Lions couldn?t convert a fourth and goal at the one-yard line down 13-12. Four plays later, Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with rookie standout Juju Smith-Schuster on a 97-yard touchdown strike to give the Steelers a 20-12 lead which held up.

Amazingly, the Lions didn?t score a touchdown in spite of quarterback Matthew Stafford?s 423-yard passing effort. Stafford rebounded from a three-interception performance in a Week 6 setback at New Orleans, while getting intercepted only once in five home games. Marvin Jones, Jr. hauled in six catches for 128 yards, but the Lions? rushing game didn?t get going by racking up 71 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, Detroit did as much as it could against a talented Pittsburgh offense by limiting the Steelers to 392 yards, which included the dreaded 97-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

The Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) are back from the bye week following a Week 7 home loss to the Saints. Green Bay began life without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss at Minnesota that has him sidelined indefinitely. Brett Hundley made his first start against New Orleans, but there was an obvious drop-off as the former UCLA quarterback threw for only 87 yards and was intercepted once.

Green Bay held a 14-7 lead following a Hundley 14-yard touchdown run, but the Saints outscored the Packers the rest of the way, 19-3 as New Orleans accumulated 485 yards. Running back Aaron Jones broke the 100-yard mark for the second time in three weeks by compiling 131 yards on 17 carries to go along with a touchdown, but the Packers have scored 27 points in the last two games since consecutive 35-point performances in Weeks 4 and 5.

MOTOR CITY CHALK

For only the second time this season, the Lions will be laying points. Detroit fell short in its first favorite opportunity in a 27-24 home setback to Carolina in Week 5 as two-point chalk. Jim Caldwell?s team was favored only once away from Ford Field last season, dropping a 17-14 decision at Chicago as three-point favorites. The last time Detroit won when laying points on the highway came at Chicago in the season finale of 2016, while owning a 6-7 ATS record as a favorite since the start of 2015.

NO AARON, NO PROBLEM?

Actually, it is a problem when Rodgers isn?t in the lineup for the Packers. In 2013 when Rodgers injured his left shoulder in a Week 9 loss to the Bears, Green Bay went on to 2-4-1 record the next seven games, including home losses to the Eagles and Steelers, to go along with a tie against Minnesota. In those defeats to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Packers were listed as a home underdog. Green Bay actually won as a home ?dog against Seattle last season, but the Packers last won in this role without Rodgers in the lineup coming in the 2011 season finale ? against the Lions.

SERIES HISTORY


The Lions haven?t had much luck at Lambeau Field over the years by losing 25 of the last 26 visits to Wisconsin since a December victory in 1991 to help them win the NFC Central. The only time Detroit has won in the last quarter-century at Green Bay came in 2015 as a 10 ?-point underdog, 18-16.

Last season, the Packers swept the Lions in a pair of high-scoring affairs won by seven points each. In the first matchup last September, Green Bay built a 31-3 advantage before Detroit roared back by outscoring the Packers, 24-3 the rest of the way. However, the Packers picked up a 34-27 victory as 6 ?-point favorites, paced by four Rodgers touchdown passes. Stafford tried to keep up by tossing three touchdowns, including two to Marvin Jones, who hauled in 205 yards in the loss.

In the final meeting in Detroit in Week 17, the Packers held off the Lions, 31-24 as 3 ?-point favorites, highlighted by another four touchdown passing game by Rodgers. Stafford fell to 3-10 in his career against the Packers in spite of 347 yards passing and two touchdown tosses.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

Detroit is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after winning at New York in Week 2 over the Giants, 24-10 as three-point underdogs. Since 2015, the Lions have split four Monday night games, but have compiled a 3-1 ATS record. Dating back to 2014, the Packers are a perfect 3-0 in Monday action, while playing in its first Monday game this season.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER


VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson weighs in on this matchup, ?These are below average statistical teams with the Lions ranked 19th and the Packers sitting 23rd in the league rankings in total offense despite both teams being in the top 11 in scoring. The scoring and total defense numbers are nearly identical at this point in the season as well heading into the season?s first meeting with these teams set to meet in Detroit in Week 17.?

It will be tough for the Packers to keep their heads above water without Rodgers, as Nelson looks at what lies ahead for Green Bay, ?The prognosis of Rodgers is still being determined with some hope that he could return for the final three weeks of the regular season. For that to happen, the Packers would need to have meaningful games in the final three weeks and Hundley will need to guide Green Bay to a few wins in a relatively favorable schedule in November and early December outside of a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 12.?

The Packers will have to focus on the run to be successful with Hundley under center, but it won?t be easy according to Nelson, ?With Hundley leading the offense, the Packers seem likely to run the ball more often and against New Orleans in Hundley?s first start, the Packers gained 181 yards rushing though on only 24 carries. Detroit actually allows only 3.6 yards per rush this season for the fourth- lowest average in the league, but those strong numbers are in part of factor of Detroit allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt for one of the worst pass defenses in the league.?

From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out an OVER system that applies to Green Bay, ?The Packers are 10-0 OU since November 6, 2016 facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game.? Four of those OVERS came this season already, including in home victories over Cincinnati and Chicago.

BOOKMAKER?S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, ?Every time we?ve taken some smart money on Detroit, and move to -2.5, we get the same on the other side and drop back to the opener of -2. At this point, 60 percent of the handle is on the road chalk. Public is somewhat split on the decision, with a few more backing the Pack. If this spread moves anywhere, I?d expect it will move toward the Lions.?
 

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Monday's Best Bet
November 3, 2017


NFL Week 9 MNF Best Bet
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers


A NFC North showdown caps off Week 9's NFL action on Monday night and it's a rarity to see the Detroit Lions actually laying points on the road at Lambeau Field. But that's what it means for Green Bay to not have QB Aaron Rodgers under center at the moment, and backup Brett Hundley's performance in his first start a few weeks ago didn't exactly grow bettor's confidence in the Packers going forward.

The Packers are coming off their bye week though, so hopefully for Green Bay fans that time off and extra practice time helped Hundley further adjust to his new role as the starter. Can he and the Packers step up and get the outright win this week?

BetOnline.ag Odds: Detroit (-2.5); Total set at 43.5

Right off the bat I think that the Hundley we saw two weeks ago that threw for just 87 yards and 1 INT is not going to be the same guy we see this week on extended rest. The time off to prepare for this game had to have helped him tremendously, but that being said, he's still not going to look like the second coming of Aaron Rodgers this week. He's still a significant downgrade at the position for Green Bay, and the coaching staff will still be on the side of caution with him regarding playcalling and the like.

On the Lions side, their offense has to be frustrated with how they couldn't close against the Steelers a week ago as they had plenty of opportunities inside the redzone to cash in with TD's and couldn't get it done. Settling for FG's inside the 10-yard line is a quick way to lose in the NFL and Detroit suffered that fate first hand a week ago.

With no Rodgers to deal with on the other side, the Lions have to view this game as a great opportunity to beat a hated rival, get back to .500 on the year and start to legitimately think about hunting down Minnesota in the division. But I wouldn't expect those red zone problems to be completely solved just a week later as the Lions roster doesn't really have that physical RB that can get you tough yards close to the goal line, and relying on QB Matthew Stafford's arm to connect in those tight windows down there is tough.

So where do you go on this game?

Well, with the kid gloves on for Hundley and Green Bay's offensive playcalling, look for the Packers defense to step up and try to carry the load. The guys on that side of the ball know they don't have Rodgers under center anymore to bail them out like he often has, and it's up to them to try and keep the Packers in the playoff mix. This defense has had two weeks to prepare for a Lions team they already know very well, and given Detroit's redzone problems, Green Bay's defense has to like their chances of tightening things up in those situations and forcing the Lions to FG tries at best.

Detroit's defense will be hungry to get after Hundley and force him to beat them with his arm. That's not ideal from the Packers perspective, so points may be hard to come by for them as well. Green Bay is 1-4 O/U the last five years after their bye week and contrary to all the recent QB shootouts between Stafford and Rodgers in this rivalry recently, this game has a much different feel to it.

Therefore, I'm looking to the low side of this total here as I'm not even sure either team gets to 20 points. Green Bay will want to shorten the game with their ground attack and limit Hundley's exposure, while the Packers defense will step up to frustrate Stafford and the Lions attack for the second consecutive week. We could see quite a bit of FG's in this game on the drives that do yield points, and I'm surprised we are already seeing about 75% of the action on this total already on the high side.

With the Lions 1-5 O/U in their last six division games overall, 3-9 O/U in their last 12 appearances on MNF, and 8-22 O/U in their last 30 on the road, I'm just not sure where we get the points.

Clearly I'm in the minority on an 'under' play right now and this total could even go higher by Monday night with all the action on the high side already. If that's what ends up happening I'll have to put another unit or two on this 'under' play, as this will be the first MNF game in about a month that will cash 'under' tickets for bettors. Coincidentally, that last under on MNF this year also featured two NFC North teams battling it out (Minnesota/Chicago).

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet: Under 43.5
 

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Monday?s six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33


******************************************


Monday?s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


13) Before we go over this week?s games, some thoughts about today?s shooting in Texas.

If you can?t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

I?m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

Jets 34, Bills 21? Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven?t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

Eagles 51, Broncos 23? Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they?re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

Rams 51, Giants 17? Performances like this get coaches/GM?s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they?re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams? last three games. Rams? special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

Saints 30, Buccaneers 10? New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD?s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO?s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden?s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn?t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

Jaguars 23, Bengals 7? Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax?ville hasn?t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

Panthers 20, Falcons 17? Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD?s in their last three games- they?re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons? Super Bowl hangover continues? Atlanta is 4-5.

Colts 20, Texans 14? Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans? first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts? 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

Titans 23, Ravens 20? Tennessee allowed only three TD?s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they?re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami?s result pending Sunday night.

Redskins 17, Seahawks 14? Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17? Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL?s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I?m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don?t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

Raiders 27, Dolphins 24? Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they?ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.
 

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NFL Record For Nov.......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals.............6 - 9 - 1......40.00%.....-19.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00.............3 - 1.............+9.50...............-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

Totals.........................1 - 2..................-6.00...............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+3.50
 

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33


**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

13) Before we go over this week?s games, some thoughts about today?s shooting in Texas.

If you can?t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

I?m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

Jets 34, Bills 21? Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven?t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

Eagles 51, Broncos 23? Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they?re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

Rams 51, Giants 17? Performances like this get coaches/GM?s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they?re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams? last three games. Rams? special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

Saints 30, Buccaneers 10? New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD?s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO?s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden?s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn?t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

Jaguars 23, Bengals 7? Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax?ville hasn?t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

Panthers 20, Falcons 17? Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD?s in their last three games- they?re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons? Super Bowl hangover continues? Atlanta is 4-5.

Colts 20, Texans 14? Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans? first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts? 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

Titans 23, Ravens 20? Tennessee allowed only three TD?s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they?re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami?s result pending Sunday night.

Redskins 17, Seahawks 14? Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17? Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL?s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I?m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don?t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

Raiders 27, Dolphins 24? Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they?ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.
 

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NFL

Monday, November 6


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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Lions at Packers
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Matthew Stafford has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts and yards for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.

Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it?s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we?ve just got to execute better.?

TV:
8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS:
Lions (0) - Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1

LINE HISTORY:
The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY:
"The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013." - Marc Lawrence.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).

Packers - TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.

TRENDS:


* Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.

* Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.

* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.

CONSENSUS:
The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.
 

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

Game to bet now

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)

Wasn?t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

Game to wait on

Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)

Deshaun Watson?s season-ending injury, and the Texans' subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick - a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB?s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA?s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn?t firmed up yet.

Total to watch

New York Giants at San Francisco (42)

The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team?s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.
 

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Betting Recap - Week 9
November 6, 2017


Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 9 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-4
Against the Spread 6-4-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-5
Against the Spread 6-4-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+8.5, ML +350) at Seahawks, 17-14
Colts (+6, ML +210) at Texans, 20-14
Jets (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Bills, 34-21
Panthers (+3, ML +135) vs. Falcons, 20-17

The largest favorite to cover

Eagles (-7) vs. Broncos, 51-23
Saints (-7) vs. Buccaneers, 30-10
Rams (-6) at Giants, 51-17
Jaguars (-5.5) vs. Bengals, 23-7

Bam-da-Lam, How About Those Rams?

-- The Los Angeles Rams hit the road and thrashed the hapless New York Giants 51-17, as QB Jared Goff and company are currently the highest-scoring offense in the National Football League. How many people predicted that after the former standout at Cal looked like a deer in headlights in his rookie season? The Rams have won and covered three in a row, and the 'over' has cashed in six of their eight games overall. Cross-country trips haven't fazed the Rams, either, as they're 2-0 SU/ATS in two outings in the Eastern Time Zone. Hey, at least they were helped out somewhat on Sunday when we turned back the clocks an hour.

Odd Balls

-- The Jacksonville Jaguars came out of their bye rested, and they humbled the visiting Cincinnati Bengals by a 23-7 count at EverBank Stadium. It might have been an eyebrow-raising win considering they were a six-point favorite despite missing all-everything rookie RB Leonard Fournette, who was deactivated due to a violation of team rules. #Sacksonville was led by their defense, and they won and covered because it was an odd-numbered week. If you've been following this column all season you'd know the Jags are 5-0 SU/ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 0-3 SU/ATS in even-numbered weeks, which is why it was good their bye was in Week 8. So will they fail to cover at home against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10? The coincidental trend suggests so. And hey, the Bolts are coming off a bye, so they'll be rested.
Total Recall

-- Sunday Night Football hit the 'over' for the first time since Week 5, as the Oakland Raiders picked up a much-needed road victory against the hard-to-figure Miami Dolphins, 27-24. That's now three 'over' results in a row for the Silver and Black, and their second straight over in the Eastern Time Zone. It was also the third consecutive 'over' for the Fins, thanks in large part to their flagging defense. Miami is allowing 31.7 PPG over their past three outings after yielding just 16.9 PPG through their first five games, all 'under' results.

-- The games with the two lowest total on the board -- Cincinnati-Jacksonville (38) and Arizona-San Francisco (39) -- actually went according to how Vegas figured for once. The Jags have hit the 'under' in three of their past four outings, and they have yielded single-digit point totals in five of their first eight outings this season. The Bengals have struggled on offense, averaging just 16.2 PPG this season. And the 49ers have a rookie QB, and they have scored exactly 10 points in each of their past three outings, so no surprise on the 'under' there, while the Cards have a backup signal caller under center.

-- The Tampa Bay-New Orleans (54.5) game was far and away the highest total on the board, and it never came close to going over. In fact, the Bucs have two scoreless quarters, and the Saints had one, while all but one of the quarters had 10 or fewer total points. It was rather surprising considering the 'over' had cashed in each of the first three road games for Tampa this season, and the Saints are averaging 30.5 PPG in four home outings (over is 2-2).

-- The 'Over' is 17-11 (60.7%) through the first 28 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's NFC North Division clash between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (43) still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) has had a bum shoulder for the past couple of weeks, and he exited Sunday's game in New Orleans early due to a shoulder ailment. He was on the sidelines, however, bugging Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, and he ended up touching off a fracas.

-- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (ankle) suffered a right ankle injury in the fourth quarter of the win against the Chiefs, but he told The Dallas Morning News that he was just sore and bruised, and he would be fine for Week 10.

-- Seahawks RB Eddie Lacy (groin) left early due to a groin injury against the Redskins and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- There are just two divisional battles next week. The Seahawks and Cardinals will kick off Week 10 on Thursday Night Football in the desert. Seattle will be awfully angry after a home loss to the banged up 'Skins. Seattle has been good on the road lately, though, winning and covering their past two. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 2-6 ATS this season, going 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in three home games. Last season, Arizona was 1-0-1 SU and 1-1 ATS against Seattle, with a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23 at home against the 'Hawks.

-- The Packers and Bears renew acquaintances in the Second City, and Chicago will be looking for a little payback after getting drummed 35-14 at Lambeau on Thursday Night Football back on Sept. 28. Of course, the offense was being led by Aaron Rodgers, who has since been injured. The Packers have won each of their past seven trips to Soldier Field, including a playoff game in 2011, while going 6-1 ATS. Their last regular season loss in Chicago came Sept. 27, 2010. Again, though, the games were with Rodgers under center, not Brett Hundley.
 

Cnotes53

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

Game to bet now

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)

Wasn?t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

Game to wait on

Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)

Deshaun Watson?s season-ending injury, and the Texans' subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick - a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB?s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA?s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn?t firmed up yet.

Total to watch

New York Giants at San Francisco (42)

The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team?s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.
 
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