Cnotes53 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[Cnotes53]

Books, Public draw in Week 9
November 6, 2017

NFL Week 9 action saw mixed results at sports books all across Las Vegas for a variety of reasons, but they were all unified in needing Miami in the Sunday night game against Oakland where the Raiders had moved from from a two-point road favorite all the way up to -3.5 on game day before eventually closing at -3.

Sure enough, the books got middled when the Raiders won 27-24.

"It wasn't a good day," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "We had one casino player have a huge day against us going 4-0 so far.

That house player was wagering six-figures a game making the rest of what happened on the day pale in comparison to his action, but if extracting those house player losses from the overall betting pool, the public still managed to do well.

"The Eagles game was a killer for us," said Stoneback. "The Rams hurt too, those were our two worst of the day."

Those were the top two games on the rotation and the two favorites each posted 50 spots on a couple of proud franchises. The Eagles are quickly becoming the bettors best friend by covering weekly and Sunday's 51-23 beat down of the Broncos (+7) was another piece of the puzzle of building a Super Bowl champion. The blowout win against the NFL's No. 1 defense made Philadelphia an NFL-best 7-2 against the spread this season. MGM books dropped their Eagles Super Bowl odds from 6/1 down to 5/1 after the game.

Denver's QB situation didn't change much with Brock Osweiler getting the start Sunday. The Broncos were looking for a boost from the back-up after Trevor Siemian lost his starting job, but Denver went on to lose their fourth straight which they've been outscored 124-52.

Not to be outdone by the Eagles, the Rams traveled across the country for a 10:00 a.m. PT game at MetLife Stadium against the Giants and blasted them 51-17, which coupled with Seattle's loss, gave the Rams sole possession of first-place in the NFC West at 6-2. They are the NFL's highest-scoring team and Jared Goff is anything but the bust we thought he was last year. If anything, it's more of an indictment on former Rams coach Jeff Fisher being out of touch.

"The morning games were ugly, the house went 1-6 with only the Panthers helping us out," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The Redskins outright win was huge in the afternoon to give us a positive number. We need the Dolphins to hold on to a winning day."

The Falcons number was running everywhere over the weekend where the Panthers went from being a 2.5-point home favorite to the Falcons being three-point favorites by kickoff. Carolina held on for the 20-17 win, one of three underdogs to win outright on the day. The South Point had Carolina money-line at +140.

"If Seattle covered it would have been a disaster, Stoneback said of the Seahawks who were 8.5-point home favorites against the Redskins. "After we posted the Cardinals and Cowboys results we were looking at a seven-figure loss with Seattle with straight bets, parlays, teasers and money-line parlays all waiting to be cashed. The Redskins saved the day for us."

The Seahawks couldn't get anything going offensively in the rain until the fourth quarter. Washington held a 10-2 lead for most of the game, but once again Russell Wilson did some late game magic and led the Seahawks to two TD drivers, the last of which gave them a 14-10 lead, but Wilson made it happen too quick and left plenty of time on the clock for Kirk Cousins to make something happen and he made two outstanding throws and got two outstanding catches leading to a 17-14 win and even the Redskins record at 4-4. The Westgate paid out the Redskins money-line at +350.

"We did okay for losing our three biggest decisions," said Las Vegas Westage SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "The Eagles, Rams and Saints were the worst for us, but we made it up through the rest of the day and it was capped off with Seattle losing. That game was huge for us because it knocked out big money-line parlays and teasers. We needed one of the big favorites to go down and got it here."

One of the most attractive games of the day was Kansas City at Dallas (-2.5) in the afternoon, but the Cowboys 28-17 win was kind of a non-decision just because action was so split on each side. William Hill sports books had 57 percent of their tickets written on that game siding with the Chiefs. However, McCormick said his Stations book did well with the Cowboys game staying 'under' (53). He said they had lots more action on the totals this week than usual.

"Despite a bunch of the good teams having byes and the seven early games being less than attractive, we still had a great crowd here which is sort of a continuation from Friday and Saturday with the Breeders' Cup," said Kornegay. "We were a small winner on Saturday with college football. We'll be rooting for Miami to secure a nice day."

 

[The Mover]

Thanks for posting.

 

[Cnotes53]

Your Welcome Mover......Hope all this helps..........x34:

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday Night Football Best Bets:

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals.............6 - 9 - 1......40.00%....-19.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50...............-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

Totals........................1 - 2..................-6.00...............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+3.50


*******************

11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DET at GB 08:30 PM

DET -2.0 *****

U 42.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

Packers lose 3rd straight, seek answers without Rodgers
November 7, 2017

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Aaron Rodgers is the great equalizer for the Green Bay Packers, a once-in-a-generation type of talent who can help mask mistakes and turn busted plays into big gains.

Without him, miscues are magnified and the margin of error shrinks considerably for the Packers.

It happened again Monday night when Green Bay fell 30-17 to the Detroit Lions for its third straight loss, a streak that started when Rodgers hurt his collarbone on Oct. 15 at Minnesota.

''We're a better team than what we're putting on film, regardless of whether (Rodgers) is in there or not,'' receiver Davante Adams said. ''We've still got ... enough talent in here where we can win these types of games.''

The Packers were coming off a bye, exuding optimism that an extra week of rest and preparation could help turn things around. Coming into the game, coach Mike McCarthy in part stressed the need to get the ball more to his playmaking receivers.

They did just that, though most of the opportunities came on short passes.

Adams had seven catches for 53 yards with a long of 9. Jordy Nelson finished with four catches for 35 yards. He was blanketed by Lions cornerback Darius Slay on a couple deep shots in the third quarter while the game was still competitive.

Randall Cobb had five catches for 58 yards, including a 46-yard gain on a catch-and-run that set up Hundley's 1-yard quarterback sneak that made it 20-10 with 9:52 left.

Hundley was 26 of 36 for 245 yards, though he rarely took deep shots, especially in the first half. He nearly connected on one long throw to Adams, who had a step on the cornerback down the sideline, but the ball bounced off fingertips.

''This game they were giving us the underneath stuff,'' Hundley said. ''You have to take what's given.''

McCarthy stood by Hundley, who is most effective out of the pocket and when he can use his legs.

The Packers had other problems, too, rushing for 78 yards on 17 carries. They were just 2 of 9 on third downs.

''Brett Hundley played better tonight and I have great faith in Brett Hundley. Brett Hundley's not our issue,'' McCarthy said.

The defense got burned on third downs by Detroit's Matthew Stafford, who was 26 of 33 for 361 yards and two scores to Marvin Jones. The Lions were 8 of 13 on third-down conversions.

The Lions' opening score was set up by an unnecessary roughness penalty on Mike Daniels, after the defensive lineman appeared to head-butt Detroit center Travis Swanson. The flag negated an incompletion on third-and-15 that would have forced the Lions to punt from their own 25.

Stafford connected with Jones for the touchdown pass five plays later.

''I really take that on myself. If we stop them there, then we get a short field ... I let the emotions get the best of me,'' Daniels said.

With Rodgers in uniform, the Packers have a better chance to punch back on the scoreboard. The defense can take more chances and still know that Rodgers can win a shootout.

They need to figure out quickly how to win without him.

''We come out winning Super Bowls around here. If we keep playing like this, it's not going to be pretty,'' cornerback Davon House said. ''We're 4-4, with how many games left? Eight games left. We've got to pull together - somehow, some way.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday Night Football Best Bets:

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals.............7 - 10 - 1......41.17%....-20.00


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

Totals........................2 - 2..................-1.00................3 - 2.............+4.00..............+3.00


*******************

11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s six-pack

Odds to win the 2018 World Series

? Los Angeles Dodgers 11-2

? Houston Astros 7-1/Cleveland Indians

? Cleveland/New York (A)/Chicago Cubs 15-2

? Boston Red Sox/Washington Nationals 10-1

? St Louis Cardinals/Arizona Diamondbacks 20-1

? Toronto Blue Jays 22-1

********************************************

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??.

13) Lions 30, Packers 17? Detroit wins for just 2nd time in last 26 visits to Wisconsin; Green Bay?s season is in the ashcan. Stafford threw for 361 yards, and scored TD?s in red zone.

12) Eagles are 8-1 heading into their bye week; in the last 20 years, out of 45 teams to start a season 7-1, only the ?12 Bears, ?96 Redskins started 7-1, and then missed the playoffs.

11) Seattle Seahawks penalties the last three games: 41 penalties for 358 yards. They need to knock those numbers down- 120 yards a game is tough to overcome.

10) Bulls? Zach LaVine signed a 4-year, $35M deal with adidas; he is making $3,202,217 from the Bulls this season. Why is a sneaker company paying him 273% what the Bulls pay him?

9) Only players ever to hit a home run on Opening Day, and then in Game 7 of the World Series that same year: George Springer this year, and Yogi Berra, in 1956. Thats it.

8) Atlanta Falcons are getting killed by bad field position; in their last four games, they lost field position by 9-7-11-16 yards.

7) Tampa Bay?s star WR Mike Evans gets suspended for this week?s games with the Jets after his cheap shot at a Saints defender Sunday. The suspension costs Evans $290,967.37.

Bucs also shut QB Jameis Winston down because of his sore shoulder; Tampa Bay?s season is a mess- they had very high expectations this summer.

6) Eastern Illinois beat Illinois in one of this exhibition games for charity; surprising result, but the game doesn?t count, so Illinois may not have taken it as seriously as it should have. You know Eastern Illinois took it very seriously.

5) Clippers/Lakers both played at home Sunday, in the Staples Center; would be curious to know how many people paid to watch both games.

4) Miami Marlins dumped 44-year OF Ichiro Suzuki last week, possibly ending a career that will undoubtedly end with a Hall of Fame induction. He is still good enough to come off of someone?s bench; we?ll see if this is the end for Ichiro.

3) SI.com points out that the Cincinnati Bengals have made 106 trades in their 50 years, but none of them were with the Browns or Steelers, their two biggest rivals. The AJ McCarron trade last week that the Browns butchered with their incompetence would?ve been the first one.

2) They had four refs working a G-League basketball game on ESPNU last night; good Lord, just what we need, more refs. As an old coach once said when they went from two to three refs: ?Just one more to yell at.? Now they have two more to yell at.

1) College basketball starts Friday night, with a ton of games; more suspensions than usual early on this fall, so it is a good time to sit back, study and start to get a handle on this season. There will a lot of information to process late Friday night.

Auburn already has two kids suspended, Texas A&M two, USC one and Southern Illinois has two kids hurt- Rhode Island had a kid arrested over the weekend- no word yet on his status. The recruiting scandal that is ongoing will probably result in more players being held out of the lineup.

 

[Cnotes53]

Buccaneers QB Winston out at least two games
November 6, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. -- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have decided Jameis Winston needs a couple weeks off to rest his injured shoulder.

The Bucs quarterback, who has failed to finish two of the past four games after suffering a sprained AC joint in his right throwing shoulder at Arizona Oct. 15, will be shut down for at least two weeks following an MRI he received Monday.

Winston has started all 40 games since entering the NFL as the No. 1 overall pick by the Bucs in 2015. But the Bucs have lost five games in a row, and their franchise quarterback was forced to leave Sunday's 30-10 loss at New Orleans shortly after sustaining a hit from Saints defensive end Alex Okafor just before halftime.

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter said veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick will start Sunday's game against the Jets Sunday. The Bucs will also activate Ryan Griffin from injured reserve, and he will serve as the No. 2 quarterback in Sunday's game.

"As I told you guys last night, Jameis did have an MRI today and as a result of that MRI he's going to be out the next couple weeks," Koetter said.

Koetter would not give any details about what the latest MRI revealed.

"A lot of medical terms that I'm not an expert on, but that he needs to be off for a couple weeks," Koetter said.

Since Winston's initial injury against the Cardinals, the Bucs are 0-4 and have scored a total of nine points in the first half of those games.

"Jameis didn't play his best," Koetter said. "But on the third from the last play of the half, when he got hit on his left side, the way the defensive end and Jameis' weight fell on his right shoulder, that's when he reaggravated it and that was a hit most all quarterbacks in the NFL, when you're coming off an injury and you see those, those are not good. Up until that point, Jameis had practiced good last week. He had one of his best practices on Friday. He threw the ball great in pregame warmups. But after that point, he was definitely hurt."

Following the initial injury at Arizona, Winston had one of his best games at Buffalo, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns with an interception in a 30-27 loss to the Bills.

He did not play well in a 17-3 loss to Carolina Oct. 29, but coaches attributed that to the wind and a lack of practice time.

The fact that Winston has been injured for four of the Bucs' five straight losses may not be a coincidence.

"Yup, I mean you could definitely draw that conclusion," Koetter said. "The problem with that is there's no way to measure it."

--Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans, who hit Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore from behind during Sunday's game, has been suspended without pay for Sunday's home game against the Jets, the league announced.

Lattimore had shoved Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston after Winston came onto the field and poked him in the back of the helmet. Evans ran up and hit Lattimore from behind, knocking him to the ground. The Bucs receiver apologized after the game, calling his actions "very childish" and "unprofessional."

Evans was assessed a 15-yard penalty but not ejected. Saints head coach Sean Payton said after the game that Evans should have been ejected, and Koetter said Monday he was disappointed by what he saw.

"Totally unacceptable behavior, first by Jameis and then by Mike," Koetter said. "Jameis cannot under any circumstances come off the sideline when he's not even playing in the game. Trash talking is trash talking, but to go out and tap another player, touch another player at all on the field, that's inexcusable. Then the Saints player responded and Mike reacted, and that's not acceptable either. That's not having your teammate's back, that just wrong."

--Cornerback Brent Grimes said he hopes to be able to return to practice this week, having missed the last two games with a pulled muscle in his shoulder and back. Grimes said he injured himself in the season opener, but was able to play through it, then reinjured it against Buffalo.

"I tried to play through it, I just have to wait," Grimes said. "Hopefully, this week goes well and I can play."

NOTES: DE Williams Gholston passed all neurological exams and returned home with the team Sunday night after suffering a neck injury against the Saints. Gholston will undergo some further testing. ... LT Donovan Smith, who had played every snap in three seasons, had to leave Sunday's game with a knee injury. ... G Kevin Pamphile finished Sunday's game at left tackle against the Saints. ... RB Peyton Barber led the Bucs in rushing with 11 carries for 34 yards Sunday, his biggest workload of the season. ... QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will start Sunday's game against the Jets, went 8 of 15 passing for 68 yards with a touchdown Sunday.

MIDSEASON REPORT CARD

--PASSING OFFENSE: C -- You have to grade on a curve because Jameis Winston has had a bad shoulder for the past four games. He was great at Buffalo despite the injury, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns. But he hasn't been good the last two weeks. DeSean Jackson has done his job winning on deep routes, but Winston can't connect with him.

--RUSHING OFFENSE: D -- The Bucs cannot get their running game going. Halfway through the season, they do not have a player who has rushed for 100 yards, and the return of Doug Martin to the lineup has been inconsequential. All this despite the fact that the Bucs moved Ali Marpet to center and J.R. Sweezy came back from an injury that cost him the entire 2016 season.

--PASS DEFENSE: D -- The Bucs have given up way too many explosive plays in the pass game. The problem is they can't get any pressure on the quarterback and only have eight sacks in as many games. DE Noah Spence is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Losing CB Brent Grimes for three games has hurt as well.

--RUSH DEFENSE: C -- The Bucs have been just OK against the run. Adrian Peterson ran wild against them with the Cardinals. The Saints' backs had their way with Tampa Bay as well. But you have to factor in the injuries to both Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David, who has forced four fumbles.

--SPECIAL TEAMS: D -- P Bryan Anger is a quality player who can kick his team out of trouble or create field position by killing it inside the 20. But the kicking game got the Bucs off to a bad start. After releasing Roberto Aguayo, Nick Folk melted down and had to be released. They may have salvaged the situation with the signing of Patrick Murray.

--COACHING: D -- The Bucs are not responding to head coach Dirk Koetter or defensive coordinator Mike Smith. They did not show much fight on Sunday and it might be a trend.

 

[Cnotes53]

Opening Line Report - Week 10
November 6, 2017

Here are your opening betting numbers for Week 10 of the NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 3:30 p.m. ET on Monday, with differences among sports books and early moves noted.

Thursday, Nov. 9

Seattle Seahawks (-6, 41.5) at Arizona Cardinals

There?s been early interest in the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals, the opening number of Seattle -6.5 bet down to -5 at CG Technology. Multiple other books moved from -6.5 to -6, and -6 is the consensus number as of this Monday afternoon writing.

Sunday, Nov. 12

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 42.5) at Washington Redskins

Like the Thursday nighter above, this Sunday afternoon tilt saw early money show up on the home underdog, with openers Washington +2.5 bet down to +2, and +2s adjusted to 1.5s.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3 even, 41)

While an adjustment to this number based on Brett Hundley?s performance Monday night should not surprise bettors, sharp players at CG Technology laid Bears -3, Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at the book, said in a text message.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 44.5) and Indianapolis Colts

Double-digit road favorites don?t come around often in the NFL ? in fact, if this spread holds, it would mark just the second time this season it?s happened. The Steelers were in the same role in the first occurrence, failing to cover as 10-point favorites in a 21-18 win at Cleveland in Week 1.

As for next week?s number, the +10.5s that have flashed on Vegas boards have been snapped up by underdog players.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Wynn opened Jacksonville -3.5 and was bet up to -4.5 before a move back to -4. While most shops are at 4, Chargers backers can get +4.5 at William Hill.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick ?em, 42)at New York Jets

With Monday?s news that the Bucs are shutting down Jameis Winston, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will start against his old mates, the Westgate SuperBook installed the Jets as one-point road favorites. The Bucs were -4.5 on the Westgate?s look-ahead lines hung a week ago. CG Technology is dealing Tampa -1, an adjustment from an opener of -1.5, so we?ll split the difference and call this game a pick ?em. Make a note that Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans will be suspended for this contest.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5.5, 40.5)

Tennessee -5.5 appears to be the right number, as the Wynn was bet from 5 to 5.5, and the Westgate went from 6 to 5.5.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 46.5) at Buffalo Bills

New Orleans opened -1.5 at the Westgate on Sunday night, but line was driven up to a field goal at that shop by Monday. That?s the high end of the market, with other shops dealing 2.5s and even 2s.

The Saints? current form is among the best in the league ? they?ve won six in a row straight-up (5-1 ATS) ? but they visit a Bills club that?s a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home.

Unbeaten at home or not, John Avello, chief oddsmaker at the Wynn, doesn?t like the inconsistency that seems to be inherent in Buffalo.

?The game at the Jets last week was awful (a 34-21 loss). They have a couple of good efforts in there before that, but they also lost to Cincinnati,? Avello said. ?You?re not gonna get a good handle on this team , you?re just not. They?re gonna play well at times , and at times they?re gonna throw in clunkers ? you just don?t know when that?s gonna be.?

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10,41)

CG Technology bumped this number from Detroit -9.5 to -10.5 in early wagering, and the Wynn from -9.5 to -10, while the Westgate bounced between -9.5 and -10.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5, 46.5)

This number opened big and got bet even bigger, from -10.5 to -12 at William Hill. There?s a mix of 11s, 11.5s and 12s as of Monday.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5 even, 51)

Dallas has won and covered three straight, Atlanta has lost four of five and failed to cash any tickets in that five-game stretch, but the betting market isn?t buying these recent runs. Sharp money on Atlanta -3 showed up at CG, per Simbal, and William Hill was among the books that adjusted from -3 to -3.5 during early betting action.

?That whole offensive magic that Atlanta had last year is just not there right now,? Avello said. ?Is it gonna show up? The bettors keep thinking that it?s gonna show up at some point, it just hasn?t yet. They went from a dog to a favorite against Carolina last week, and it wasn?t there again (the Falcons lost 20-17 as 3-point chalk).?

Avello pointed out, though, that the Falcons won five of their last six regular-season games last year and seven of their last nine, before going on to the Super Bowl.

?Maybe that?s what they?re going to do again, but I just don?t see it,? Avello said. ?Whatever they had last year they don?t have now, at least through the first eight games of the year. We?ll see if they have it for the next eight.?

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42)

As Giants coach Ben McAdoo contemplates benching Eli Manning, the Wynn adjusted its line from Giants -1 on Sunday night to San Francisco -1.5 by Monday.

New England Patriots (-7.5 even, 46.5) at Denver Broncos

The Wynn took wiseguy action at an opener of Denver +7.5, prompting a move to +7.5 even, Avello said. This despite the Patriots coming off four straight wins and then a bye week visiting an out-of-sorts Broncos team.

?Can they put together a good effort at home? Darn right they can,? Avello said of the Broncos. ?They?ve done it in the past. But things aren?t going in a positive direction right now.?

Monday, Nov. 13

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 40)

Most of the early interest has been on Carolina, the number bet from -8.5 to -9 at multiple shops, although Caesars moved in the other direction, from Dolphins +9 to +8.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 10
November 7, 2017

THURSDAY, NOV. 9

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

SEATTLE at ARIZONA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered last five in series. Cards only 2-6 vs. line this season, also ?under? 5-2. Hawks have covered four straight vs. Cards at Glendale.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 12

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins 1-5 vs. spread last six at FedEx Field. Jay Gruden on 22-7 ?over? run since late 2015. Vikes have covered last three TY and ?over? 8-4 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: "Over? and Vikings, based on ?totals? and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 4-0 vs. line with Trubisky at QB, also "under? 6-2 TY. Pack no covers first three with Hundley at QB (counts Minn. loss).
Tech Edge: Bears and slight to ?under,? based on recent team and ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel have now won and covered last three since Jags loss, also ?under? 7-1 this season. Steel now ?under? 21-7 since late 2015. Steel 8-5 last 13 as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Steel and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Bolts dog, note 23-12-1 mark in role on road since 2012. Jags also ?over? 8-3 last ten at home.
Tech Edge: Chargers, especially if dog, and slight to ?over? based on team and ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven on board! Bucs skidding 0-6 vs. spread TY, 1-8-1 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans on 18-8-1 ?over? run since late 2015. Also 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight at Nashville. Bengals 8-16 vs. spread since last season, 1-6 last six as road dog.
Tech Edge: Titans and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have won last six SU, 5-1 vs. line in those. ?Over? 33-23 since 2015. Bills 5-2-1 vs. spread TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints and "over," based on team and ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at DETROIT (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns 2-6 vs. line TY, 6-18 vs. spread since LY. Cleveland 8-26-1 last 35 since mid 2015, and has failed to cover last two years off of a their bye.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on Browns woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Not quite the same minus Deshaun, so downplaying some of the recent Houston angles especially the 3-0 vs. line away TY! Rams ?over? 6-2 TY though only 1-2 vs. line at Coliseum TY, 1-7-1 last 9 vs. spread at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?over,? based on ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys have covered their last three away TY. Falcs just 1-2 vs. points in new Mercedes Benz Stadium and only 4-4 vs. points last 8 as host.
Tech Edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners 2-9 vs. spread last eleven at Levi?s, while G-Men have covered their last three on road.
Tech Edge: Eli, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Home team had covered seven straight in this series prior to NE?s 16-3 win in Denver when Broncs were fading late LY. Belichick now 8-2 vs. line last 10 as visiting chalk. Broncs 3-8-1 vs. line since late LY. Belichick ?under? 7-3-1 last 11 as visitor.
Tech Edge: Patriots and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 13

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

MIAMI at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Miami ?under? 5-2 in 2017. Cam ?under? 8-4 at home since LY (1-2 TY). Cam 0-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 vs. spread last ten as host.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Dolphins, based on ?totals? and team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (5 - 3) at ARIZONA (4 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL

Week 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, November 9

SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing at home against Seattle

-----------------------------------

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
Monty Andrews

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)

Seahawks' lack of discipine vs. Cardinals' ability to draw flags

The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West - shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks - and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games - nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks' 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they're a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend's 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags - tied with Miami for the most in the league - for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona's plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL - and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

--------------------------------------

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday, November 9

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 111-112
November 9, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.686
Arizona
126.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5 1/2); Over

-------------------------------------------

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday's game

Seahawks (5-3) @ Cardinals (4-4)? Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) in 17-14 home loss to Redskins, Brown?s first game as their new LT; they outgained Skins 437-244, but committed 16 penalties for 138 yards- they?ve been penalized 358 yards in last three games. Seahawks are 2-2 on road, 1-0 as road favorite- they?ve held six of eight foes to 18 or less points. Arizona is 0-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they?re 2-1 at home, losing to Dallas by 11. Road teams are 4-0-1 in last five series games; Seattle is 3-0-1 in last four visits here, holding Arizona to 6 points in each of last three- teams tied 6-6 here in an ugly game LY. Six of last seven Arizona games, three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

--------------------------------------------

NFL

Thursday, November 9

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Seahawks at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6, 41)

The Seattle Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed field-goal attempts and a season-high 16 penalties. Speaking of ties, the Seahawks return to the site of a rare draw last season when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday.

"Yeah, it's a great challenge, obviously, for Thursday night games. ... I think the biggest thing is the preparation part of it," Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight week and fifth time in six games in Sunday's 17-14 loss to Washington, told reporters. The 28-year-old tossed four scoring strikes in a 34-31 setback against Arizona last season on Christmas Eve after both teams were limited to field goals in a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23, 2016. Adrian Peterson was not a member of the Cardinals for those contests, but the 32-year-old is making up for lost time in a hurry with a career-high 37 rushes for 159 yards in Sunday's 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco. When asked what type of workload is expected for Peterson on the short week, Arizona coach Bruce Arians told reporters, "I would think the same as last week. ... I wouldn't challenge him in any form or fashion by saying, 'You're only going to get 20 (carries)' because I'd probably have to fight him on the sideline."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as five-point road favorites and by Wednesday that number was bumped up to 6 points. The total hit betting boards at 42.5 and has been bet down to 41.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-2.5) - Cardinals (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -2.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), DE Dion Jordan (Probable, Knee), CB Jeremy Lane (Probable, Thigh), G Germain Ifedi (Probable, Finger), DE Michael Bennett (Probable, Heel), G Oday Aboushi (Probable, Shoulder), WR Tyler Lockett (Probable, Shoulder), RB C.J. Prosise (Probable, Ankle), DT Sheldon Richardson (Questionable, Oblique), WR Paul Richardson (Questionable, Groin), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Ankle), S Earl Thomas (Doubtful, Hamstring), DE Marcus Smith (Out, Concussion), RB Eddie Lacy (Out, Groin), G Luke Joeckel (Out, Knee), G Rees Odhiambo (I-R, Hand), FB Tre Madden (I-R, Calf), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (Questionable, Concussion), DE Cliff Avril (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Carson (I-R, Knee), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee), T George Fant (I-R, Knee), CB DeAndre Elliott (I-R, Ankle).

Cardinals - DL Frostee Rucker (Probable, Shin), LB Karlos Dansby (Probable, Finger), S Budda Baker (Probable, Ankle), WR Chad Williams (Questionable, Back), WR Brittan Golden (Questionable, Groin), RB T.J. Logan (Questionable, Wrist), C Daniel Munyer (I-R, Toe), RB David Johnson (I-R, Wrist), QB Carson Palmer (Out, Arm), LS Aaron Brewer (Out, Hand), LB Markus Golden (I-R, Knee), G Mike Iupati (Out, Tricep), CB Ronald Zamort (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Blair Walsh had reason to hang his head after missing field-goal attempts of 44, 39 and 49 yards versus the Redskins, but coach Pete Carroll didn't want those misfires to lead to the 27-year-old kicker worrying about his job security. "I'm concerned that he had trouble in this game," Carroll said on his 710 ESPN Seattle radio show. "I don't think that that has to do with anything (on Thursday). We'll find out. We'll see him come on back." Doug Baldwin, who made a career-best 13 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown in the last encounter with Arizona, has 22 receptions on 34 targets for 254 yards and two scores over his last three games.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U): Drew Stanton traditionally has stepped up when called upon, and the 33-year-old did precisely that by extending his winning streak to four starts - albeit spread over nearly three years - by tossing two touchdown passes versus the 49ers. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." J.J. Nelson rolled up 132 receiving yards in his last encounter with Seattle but has made just three catches for 54 yards in his last three overall games.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 12-3 in Cardinals last 15 home games.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Arizona.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road fave Seahawks at a rate of 55 percent and the Under is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's Best Bet
November 8, 2017

Thursday Night Football - Week 10
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

For the second straight week we've got a NFL Week opening up with a divisional matchup on TNF. This week it's a NFC West showdown between the Seahawks and Cardinals, as both teams find themselves in the surprising position of looking up at the L.A. Rams in the standings.

Seattle's the more likely of the two to catch L.A. by season's end for a variety of reasons, but if the Seahawks lose outright as road favorites in this game, that task get's a lot tougher. Let's get right to the breakdown:

********** Odds: Seattle (-5.5); Total set at 41

This is the first of two meetings this year between these two rivals, with the rematch coming in Week 17 in the Pacific Northwest. Who knows what will end up being at stake ? if anything ? by the time that game arrives, but this Week 10 opener could end up being the beginning of the end of the loser's playoff hopes. That statement is directed more at the Cardinals, but after the slew of injuries Arizona has dealt with at key positions this year already (QB Carson Palmer, RB David Johnson), internally they can't really like their chances overall this year.

That's not to say the guys that are left suiting up in red and white won't give it their all in this game, and with Arizona finding a running game again with RB Adrian Peterson trying to turn back the clock, Arizona could end up being a feisty home dog on a short week.

The side on this game has already seen a bit of big action come the Cardinals way as this point spread opened up in the -6/-6.5 range. Despite VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers showing about 75% of the bets coming on the Seattle side, that's a significant move in favor of the home team, as bettors have seen three straight TNF games won SU and ATS by the home side.

Seattle's struggles a week ago at home vs. Washington hurts the perspective many have on this Seahawks team as well, but I'd venture a guess that Seattle's best football this year is still ahead of them.

Although travelling on a short week hasn't worked out well for visitors of late, I don't know how you can really get excited about the Cardinals either on just three days rest. Arizona hasn't really looked good on the whole in any of their eight games this year and the 4-4 SU record they do have looks like nothing but smoke and mirrors when you dig into it.

There was a 16-13 OT win over a very bad Colts team in Week 2, an 18-15 OT win over San Francisco two weeks later, a 38-33 win over a Tampa Bay team that's not nearly as good as everyone initially believed, and a 20-10 win over San Francisco again last week with the 49ers giving a rookie QB his 2nd career start. That's four victories over three different teams with a combined 5-21 SU record this year.

Three of those four wins also came when backup QB's either starter or were brought in very early (Tampa), and the lone ?starter? to fall to the Cardinals was QB Brian Hoyer in that first San Francisco game and he's not even with the 49ers anymore; he's a backup in New England now!

Those ATS marks for Indy, San Fran, and Tampa isn't much better either at 10-15-1 ATS with half of those ATS wins coming by the Indianpolis Colts who have been catching big numbers all year long. Seattle has just as many SU wins as those three teams combined, and did I mention that the Cardinals are starting backup QB Drew Stanton too.

Stanton is a guy the Cardinals don't have complete faith in to win for them with his arm as evidenced by the 37 times he handed it off to Peterson a week ago. Peterson isn't a spring chicken anymore either so just three days off after that kind of workload does him no favors either. If that ends up being the case, now Stanton has to go out there and try to win it with his arm against a Seattle secondary that's still one of the best in the league and a little pissed off with the lack of offensive support they got from their teammates last week. If all that doesn't sound like a recipe for disaster for the Cardinals in this spot, I'm not sure what does.

So although the Seahawks are considered the ?public? play for this game, I believe it's got to be Seattle or nothing, especially with the spread now below that 6-point threshold. Seattle is on a 6-1 ATS run off a loss when facing a NFC West rival, and 8-2 ATS overall after their last 10 outright defeats. Throw in a 7-0 ATS run on TNF and Pete Carroll's bunch seem to know how to deal with short week's in today's NFL.

The Seahawks know they are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture entering this week, and while a lot will definitely change, a game like this against a banged up Cardinals team with minimal weapons and a backup QB is not one they can afford to lose. Russell Wilson and Seattle's offense will be a lot sharper in ideal conditions compared to the rainy downpour they played in at home a week ago, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them bury this Cardinals team early on and let the ?Legion of Boom? carry them home late to a double-digit victory.

Odds per - **************

Best Bet: Seattle -5.5

 

[Cnotes53]

TNF - Seahawks at Cardinals
November 8, 2017

Seattle (-6, 41) at Arizona - (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Last week's trade for All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown was appropriately greeted with hopeful enthusiasm in Seattle. Although it cost them a 2019 second-rounder and a third and a fifth-round pick in the next draft, players, team officials and fans would've stopped just short of dealing their first-born in exchange for some help up front.

Ever since projected left tackle George Fant was lost in the preseason, the Seahawks have been fighting an uphill battle as they've looked to protect Russell Wilson. Despite wins in five of seven, the offense looked compromised, so being able to plug that hole with an elite option who hadn't even put on a lot of miles this season due to a well-publicized holdout that spilled into the season was more than fortunate.

You would've imagined the improvement would've been immediate given the upgrade, but someone didn't give head coach Pete Caroll and oft-maligned offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell the memo. In fairness, the improvement up front wasn't instant, so Wilson was indeed pressured often, but the game plan was typically conservative outside of a gadget play or wrinkle or two. So it was that the depleted 'Skins managed to hop on their cross-country fresh off a 17-14 comeback win engineered by Kirk Cousins.

Give him all the credit for walking through a door the Seahawks left open via inconsistent offense, but the fact that he solved an Earl Thomas-less defense by driving his team down the field rather quickly through the air in the closing stages means Seattle enters this one with all players feeling the burden of pulling their weight as they open the second half of the season looking up at a Rams team they've already beaten in L.A. and will host on Dec. 17.

It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks handle this road test against the desperate Cardinals in a stadium where they haven't lost since 2012. Last year's game in Glendale produced an ugly 6-6 tie, which begs the question of whether we'll see another low-scoring game where Carroll-led Seattle attempts to stall until the other team makes a mistake. We've seen this group play down to their opponent's level in a 12-9 win over lowly San Francisco, which is what you have to weigh when considering laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a team solely interested in the result, not the style points.

The temptation will certainly be there since the Seahawks are likely coming into this one under the assumption that backup Drew Stanton can't beat them. Although he was effective in his first start in last week's 20-10 road win over the 49ers that Arizona never trailed in, Stanton is a career backup for a reason and doesn't appear to pose much of a threat against one of the NFL's elite defenses. Adrian Peterson has adjusted well to being the focal point of an offense again and brings relatively fresh legs to the table, but he's coming off a 37-carry game on Sunday. The prospect of him having to carry another heavy workload in a short week situation makes my knees hurt in sympathy for his surgically repaired ones.

The 32-year-old Peterson has only carried the ball 30-plus times in consecutive games only once in his career, but he told reporters in Arizona that he felt "fresh and rejuvenated, ready to roll." The plan is for the run game to be Stanton's best friend here, as keepin the ball out of the air appears to be a priority.

Despite losing QB Carson Palmer for the remainder of the season and not expecting All-Pro RB David Johnson back, the Cards have been rejuvenated by Peterson's arrival and a return to health from a Larry Fitzgerald-led receiving corps that's healthier than it has been all season. Arizona begins a stretch of four home games in five outings that will realistically decide whether it factors into the playoff race in an injury-plagued season that will end in Seattle on Dec. 31.

Seattle Seahawks
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win NFC West: 1/3 to 10/11
Odds to win NFC: 7/2 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 12/1

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -160, Under +140)
Odds to win NFC West: 80/1 to 30/1
Odds to win NFC: 150/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 300/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Seattle's loss to Washington, combined with the Rams' dominant effort against the Giants, have made it close to an even-money pick to win the NFC West after opening the regular season a 1-to-3 bet. Before the upset, Westgate had those same odds for them before adjusting. The Cardinals were 3-to-1 to start the season and went from 80-to-1 to 30-to-1 after beating the 49ers. See the chart above to monitor the movement from Week 9 to the latest update for Week 10 released Tuesday.

Seattle was 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 8-to-1 to win the NFC before the season began, so they've been kept in that same vicinity despite the inconsistent start. If they win this game, expect a less lucrative figure entering their Monday night home date with the Falcons on Nov. 20.

As far as this matchup is concerned, Seattle was a 7-point favorite when early numbers were released by Westgate last Tuesday, opened at 6 this week and had dipped to as low 5 at CG Technology before heading back in the 5.5-to-6 range. The total opened at 43 at most spots but had been bet down to 41 as of Wednesday evening as the expectation that both teams utilize a conservative, run-heavy approach intensifies.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu conveyed what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday.

"The wiseguys have faded Seattle regularly this season, for good reason, and they've gone back to the well here for the most part. Currently, we have more than 70 percent of the tickets on the Seahawks, but the money handle favors Arizona 60-40 so the big bets are on the home side," Cooley said. "The under is a popular sharp play as well with 65 percent of the action there."

INJURY CONCERNS

RB Eddie Lacy has been ruled out due to a groin injury, so Thomas Rawls is expected to get the bulk of the work. Due to a short week, there are a lot of players who didn't participate in practices and are therefore considered questionable, but the Seahawks are considering star safety Earl Thomas and DE Marcus Smith doubtful. Other big names like TE Jimmy Graham, WR Paul Richardson, G Rees Odhiambo and DT Sheldon Richardson are also question marks.

The Cardinals are much healthier outside of the aforementioned big names they've lost for the season, which also include LB Markus Golden and G Mike Iupati, but having welcomed back the likes of Tyrell Mathieu, Deone Bucannon, Frostee Rucker and Robert Nkemdiche in recent weeks, the defense is healthier than it has been in weeks.

RECENT MEETINGS (Seattle 5-3-1 SU, 6-4 ATS last nine; OVER 5-4)

12/24/16 Cardinals 34-31 vs. Seahawks (AZ +9, 43.5)
10/23/16 Seahawks 6-6 at Cardinals (SEA +2.5, 43)
1/3/16 Seahawks 36-6 at Cardinals (SEA +6.5, 47)
11/15/15 Cardinals 39-32 at Seahawks (AZ +3, 44.5)
12/21/14 Seahawks 35-6 at Cardinals (SEA -9, 36)
11/23/14 Seahawks 19-3 vs. Cardinals (SEA -7, 41)
12/22/13 Cardinals 17-10 at Seahawks (AZ +9, 42.5)
10/17/13 Seahawks 34-22 at Cardinals (SEA -4.5, 41)
12/9/12 Seahawks 58-0 vs. Cardinals (SEA -10, 36)

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's Top Props
November 8, 2017

If you?re looking for a little side hustle on the weekend, and the NFL is your jam, then you have to check out our weekly NFL player props for the Thursday Night Football matchup. Inside we provide you a chance to bet on things like quarterback interceptions, sacks, total passing yards and many more.

It?s a great way to boost the entertainment factor of the Thursday Night game. Here are three of my favorite takes.

TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN (O/U ? INT?s for Stanton, Wilson)

Both quarterbacks in Thursday Night Football are relatively mistake prone. For Drew Stanton you?re getting a value of -210 for him to throw a pick, which seems like guaranteed money considering that he?s already thrown 2 picks in two games against lesser secondaries. It?s worth noting that the Seahawks will be resting Earl Thomas again to give him some time to heal that bum hamstring.

As for Wilson, it?s simply a volume play. He?s been extremely busy in terms of attempts, notching 45, 41 and 39 in the last three games alone. He?s also thrown three picks over that stretch. You?re getting a -120 value that he throws a pick in this game and that might be worth taking considering that the one thing Arizona has going for them defensively is a strong rush defence.

TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS FOR DOUG BALDWIN (O/U 72.5 Yards)

Baldwin has been a typical menace all season and it?s incredibly likely that he continues his recent spree considering that guys like Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson are both out this Thursday. Baldwin has averaged 67.3 receiving yards per game, and Wilson always has eyes for him.

The caveat, of course, is that Patrick Peterson is involved in this game. That?s not a huge concern as the Cardinals like to keep Patterson on the opposition?s No.2 receiver and they prefer to double the top pass catcher instead with a safety overtop. Why that usually doesn?t work against the Seahawks is because Russell Wilson and Baldwin are excellent on broken plays. Their chemistry is just surreal.

Baldwin notched 171 yards on 13 receptions in their last meeting, and also went for 69 receiving yards in their first encounter in 2016 during a 6-6 tie. The Seahawks are still humming even after a loss to Washington and Baldwin is the engine. Rev him up at -110 in the OVER on 72.5 receiving yards.

FIRST PLAYER TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN

By far this is one of the best NFL player prop markets to spend money on. Let?s take a look at who we?ve got, and remember that the player has to score the touchdown. If Russell Wilson passes to Luke Wilson, then Wilson is the guy that scores the touchdown, not Wilson. If Russell Wilson rushes for the score, then it?s his. Get it? Got it? Good.

The best offensive player to score a touchdown has to be either Baldwin on the Seahawks or Adrian Peterson on the Cardinals. Those make the most sense. But the best value is by far the Seattle defence at +2000. With Drew Stanton at quarterback, anything is possible.

A great strategy is to sprinkle some money on some key players. Seattle?s D/ST, Baldwin and Peterson remain the bets to lean on for obvious reasons.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at ARI 08:25 PM

ARI +6.0 *****

U 40.5 *****

 

[IE]

do not post sportsbooks if they are not sponsors of madjacksports.

 

[Cnotes53]

Cardinals stumble in 22-16 loss to Seahawks
November 10, 2017

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) The Arizona Cardinals beat NFC West rival San Francisco last week with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.

When the Cardinals were unable to spring Peterson against another NFC West opponent, they turned to the air.

Forty-seven passes from Drew Stanton was not enough, particularly with all the dropped passes by his receivers.

Arizona struggled to run effectively, fumbled twice and its defense gave up one crucial big play late, leading to a 22-16 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night.

''We knew it would come down to a game of big plays and we didn't make enough,'' Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said.

The Cardinals (4-5) bounced back from an ugly loss to the Los Angeles Rams by riding Peterson heavily in a 20-10 victory over the San Francisco 49ers last week.

Peterson ran a career-high 37 times for 159 yards against the 49ers, but was ineffective against Seattle's imposing defense.

He fumbled on Arizona's first play from scrimmage and was tackled in the end zone for a safety - both plays made by Seattle safety Kam Chancellor. Peterson finished with 29 yards on 21 carries.

It wasn't all his fault.

Arizona's offensive line was outmatched by Seattle's front in the run game most of the night, unable to give Peterson many lanes to run through. The Cardinals also lost starting left tackle D.J. Humphries to a right knee injury in the first quarter, exacerbating their ineffectiveness.

''We just weren't able to get much going,'' Cardinals right tackle Jared Veldheer said.

Drew Stanton, making his second start in place of injured Carson Palmer, played well at times, but got little help. He threw for 273 yards and a touchdown on 24-of-47 passing, a night that would have been better had the Cardinals not dropped at least five passes. Larry Fitzgerald had 10 catches for 113 yards for the Cardinals.

''We knew it was going to be a dogfight, it's like that all the time,'' Stanton said. ''There's no surprises in this game and unfortunately we didn't get the ball rolling. I didn't do a good enough job of keeping in third downs, converting those, and keeping us rolling.''

Andre Ellington also lost a fumble without being hit - the ground caused it - on a catch that would have put the Cardinals in field-goal range just before halftime. Russell Wilson hit Paul Richardson on a 43-yard pass on the next play and Blair Walsh kicked his second field goal in the closing seconds, a 43-yarder that put Seattle up 15-7 at halftime.

Arizona's defense shut down Seattle's run game and pressured Wilson all night, sacking him five times. The Cardinals had a hard time corralling him on one play with the game close in the fourth quarter, when Wilson weaved his way around two rushers twice, threw up a ball up for grabs and completed a 54-yard pass to Doug Baldwin.

''Obviously, Russell made a great play when he was trying to throw it out of bounds and that was probably the deciding factor in the game,'' Arians said.

Wilson's scramble and completion set the Seattle up for his second touchdown pass, 2 yards to tight end Jimmy Graham to put the Seahawks (6-3) up 22-10. Wilson also threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Graham in the first quarter, finishing the night with 238 yards on 22-of-32 passing.

 

[Cnotes53]

Seattle's Sherman ruptures Achilles' tendon against Arizona
November 10, 2017

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Seattle Seahawks All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman is out for the season after rupturing his right Achilles' tendon against the Arizona Cardinals Thursday night.

Sherman had been bothered by a sore Achilles' tendon all season and went down while trying intercept a pass in third quarter of Seattle's 22-16 win. He lay on the field clutching his right heel before limping off the field to the bench, where he appeared to tell teammates he had torn the tendon.

Coach Pete Carroll said Sherman will have surgery after the swelling goes down.

One of the game's best cornerbacks during his seven NFL seasons, Sherman had a pair of interceptions and 31 tackles heading into Thursday night's game.

------------------------------

Seahawks' Prosise exits due to ankle injury
November 9, 2017

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The Seattle Seahawks lost running back C.J. Prosise to an ankle injury in the third quarter of their Thursday night game against the Arizona Cardinals, and he was ruled out for the rest of the night.

Prosise left after gaining 3 yards on three carries. Thomas Rawls has been getting the brunt of the work for Seattle in the running game.

--------------------------------

Seahawks' Reed leaves with hamstring injury
November 9, 2017

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The Seattle Seahawks lost defensive tackle Jarran Reed to a hamstring injury in the first quarter of their Thursday night game against the Arizona Cardinals.

Reed was injured during Arizona's second possession of the game, and the Seahawks announced that he would not return.

Entering play Thursday, Reed had 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one pass defensed this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s six-pack

More NFL trends with Week 10 upon us:

? Denver covered four of last five tries as a home underdog.

? Falcons are 5-16 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.

? Chicago is 2-6-1 vs spread coming off its last nine byes.

? Jets are 6-0-1 vs spread in their last seven games.

? Detroit is 9-4-1 vs spread in last tries as a home favorite.

? Cincinnati is 8-17 vs spread in its last 25 games

**************************

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here??.

13) I?m tired of writing about lawyers; Ezekiel Elliott?s suspension finally kicks in this week- he is out for the Cowboys? next six games, which are against:

Atlanta-Eagles-Chargers-Redskins-Giants-Raiders.

Dallas is 5-3, currently tied for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC.

12) Interesting article on CBSSports.com Thursday about North Carolina?s Theo Pinson, a senior who is the only top 15 recruit from the Class of 2014 who is still in college.

12 of the other 14 went to the NBA one year after graduating high school; one other played two years of college, another played three years of college.

11) Baseball?s offseason will be fascinating, but what I don?t want to read are articles where the author guesses what will happen. Let us know when real news occurs.

10) 149 ballplayers became free agents this week; they don?t have to file for free agency anymore. Players can start negotiating with other teams next week; they can negotiate with the current team from now until Tuesday.

9) Jeff Van Gundy was saying on ESPN the other night that NBA games are being officiated much better this season than in previous years. Interesting comment- the flow of games is a lot better, this I know from watching games on League Pass every night.

8) Free agent OF Jay Bruce will be asking for a 5-year deal in the $80-90M range; sounds like agent Scott Boras might ask for a $200M deal for free agent OF JD Martinez.

7) Lonzo Ball is struggling with his shooting; he is 11-47 outside the arc (23.4%), 24-70 inside the arc (34.3%), 7-13 on the foul line. Not good.

Ball shot 41.2% behind the (college) arc last year at UCLA, he shot 67.3% on the foul line. Still think he?s going to be a very good NBA player, but the shooting does need to improve.

6) Duke?s pre-conference schedule is a little shaky; they play Michigan State in Chicago, and they go to Indiana in the ACC/Big 14 Challenge, but other than that, here is who they play:

Elon-Utah Valley-Michigan State-Southern-Furman-Portland St-Indiana-South Dakota, St Francis, not exactly a murderer?s row of a pre-conference schedule.

5) The night Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points for the Philadelphia Warriors in 1962, former Golden State coach Al Attles scored 17 points, the next-highest amount for the Warriors. Attles is 81 years old now and was at the Minnesota-Golden State game in Oakland Wednesday.

4) Sounds like the Bulls will likely choose Bobby Portis over Nikola Mirotic when it comes to getting rid of one of the two players who got into a fight in practice, which resulted in Mirotic breaking his cheekbone. Problem is, Bulls can?t trade Mirotic until Jan 15, and he is expected to be ready to play before then, so much like Eric Bledsoe with the Suns, Mirotic is likely to sit idle for a while after he is healthy, until he can be traded.

3) Wisconsin?s leading WR, Quintez Cephus is done for the season with a right leg injury. Cephus has caught 30 passes for 501 yards and six touchdowns this season.

2) Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16? Arizona scored TD in last 2:00 but PAT was blocked, so spread pushed. Seattle is now 6-3 and half-game behind Rams in NFC West. Cardinals are 4-5 and in deep trouble with an aging roster- they have 11 players who are older than Rams? coach Sean McVay.

1) RIP to the great actor John Hillerman 84, who passed away Thursday in Houston. The son of a gas station owner, Hillerman appeared in movies like Chinatown and Blazing Saddles, but is best known for playing Jonathan Higgins, major domo of the estate in Magnum, PI. He was nominated for four Emmy awards for playing Higgins? he won one in 1987.

RIP, sir.