Cnotes53 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[Cnotes53]

Bills reverse tank talk by ending 17-year playoff drought
January 1, 2018

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) It took four months and a dramatic turn of events on one of the final plays of the NFL's regular season for coach Sean McDermott and the Buffalo Bills to finally - and succinctly - put to rest any suggestion the team had any intention of tanking last summer.

''I'll let you guys handle that,'' McDermott said, referring to reporters on Monday. ''We're moving on after today to the first round of the playoffs.''

And that's all that matters to the first-year coach, who took the high road rather than an ''I told you so'' approach some 18 hours after the Bills clinched the AFC's sixth and final playoff berth and ended a 17-year postseason drought - the longest in North America's four major professional sports.

McDermott never gave into the doubters and instead preached a simple ''Trust The Process'' message that resonated with his players.

''Every season's a little bit different. Every season you go through tests and challenges,'' McDermott said.

''It's going to try to pull you apart. It's going to test you, and it's going to test your mental toughness,'' he added. ''And our players hung in there.''

Rather than packing up, as 17 of Buffalo's preceding teams did on the day after the regular-season finale, these Bills returned home to a jubilant reception early Monday.

They were greeted at Buffalo Niagara International Airport by some 400 chanting fans , who braved 2-degree temperatures after Buffalo beat Miami 22-16 and clinched its playoff berth once Baltimore gave up a last-minute touchdown in a 31-27 loss to Cincinnati.

McDermott is even considering sending the Bengals a gift - chicken wings, perhaps - as a thank you for Andy Dalton hitting Tyler Boyd for a 49-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-12 with 44 seconds left.

And now, Buffalo (9-7) is moving on in preparing to play at AFC South champion Jacksonville (10-6) on Sunday.

McDermott rewarded his players by giving them the next two days off, before the team returns to practice Wednesday.

They earned it.

Buffalo overcame exceedingly low expectations following a major yearlong roster overhaul which led to the departures of numerous high-priced stars.

Among the players traded were receiver Sammy Watkins (to the Los Angeles Rams) and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (Jacksonville).

The Bills' secondary was retooled as was their group of receivers, leaving the team to open the season with 24 holdovers from 2016.

On the field, the Bills overcame the elements by beating Indianapolis 13-7 in overtime amid white-out conditions on Dec. 10.

And the team failed to unravel when McDermott's decision to start Nathan Peterman backfired after the rookie quarterback threw five interceptions in the first half of a 54-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Nov. 19.

Buffalo could face even more adversity with running back LeSean McCoy's status uncertain after hurting his right ankle against Miami.

What stood out to McDermott was how the Bills responded to the loss to the Chargers the following week by snapping a three-game skid with a 16-10 win at Kansas City.

''If you're going to put a landmark moment for this first year, that was probably one of them,'' he said of a win that improved Buffalo's record to 6-5.

''That goes back to the resiliency of this football team and really what this city is all about ... that no matter what people say about us, we're going to compete like crazy.''

McDermott needed no more validation of how his team has captured the imagination of its supporters than witnessing the scene at the airport. Fans waved Bills flags and placards, sang the team's ''Shout!'' song and chanted ''Let's Go Buffalo.''

''I've been around a couple of playoffs or two in my 20 years around the NFL, and that was unmatched,'' he said. ''This type of welcome home just speaks volumes about our city and our fans.''

Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier said the staff and players couldn't initially see the fans while de-boarding the plane, but could hear them.

''We were like, `This is incredible.' It just kind of brings home what this means to Buffalo, to western New York,'' Frazier said. ''It just pushes you on to want to keep it going and just show them how much we appreciate their support.''

Rookie tackle Dion Dawkins was stunned by the reception,

''It's 2 degrees out here and they're screaming their tails off,'' Dawkins said. ''This is just flat-out unbelievable.''

Funny, some were saying the same about the Bills' playoff chances four months ago, too.

 

[Cnotes53]

Happy to be in playoffs, Titans ready to show they belong
January 1, 2018

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Tennessee Titans finally making the playoffs left Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey speechless.

Well, for a moment anyway.

''Thinking amazing. Unbelievably fulfilling,'' Casey said. ''I've been waiting this for seven years, and finally got the opportunity to get out there.''

Plenty of his Tennessee teammates are experiencing all sorts of emotions after helping end the franchise's playoff drought after eight long seasons.

Only 18 of the Titans who helped beat Jacksonville 15-10 in the regular-season finale to clinch the AFC's No. 5 seed have been to the playoffs before.

That leaves 35 making their playoff debut Saturday when the Titans (9-7) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (10-6).

Linebacker Brian Orakpo has only been with the Titans three seasons, but this will be the postseason debut for the nine-year veteran.

After nine years, the 31-year-old Orakpo was beginning to think he'd never get the chance at a playoff game.

''I'm excited personally, and I'm really going to enjoy it,'' Orakpo said. ''Work my tail off this whole week to make something really happen while we are in there (the playoffs).''

The Titans, given Monday off, snapped a three-game skid to earn their playoff berth. They will go to Kansas City as big underdogs with the Chiefs already favored by 7+ points.

Long odds are no issue for the Titans who saw firsthand last spring what a team can do in the postseason no matter the seed.

They cheered as the NHL's Nashville Predators went into the playoffs as the second wild card in the Western Conference only to reach their first Stanley Cup Final.

Now they hope to mimic what the Predators did.

''We're excited,'' quarterback Marcus Mariota said. ''Hopefully, we can take it just as far as they did.''

Linebacker Derrick Morgan, Tennessee's first-round pick back in 2010, had to wait until his eighth NFL season to prepare for his first playoff game.

''We are one of six AFC teams, so anything can happen,'' Morgan said. ''It's the playoffs. You have seen a lot of fifth and sixth teams go all the way, so we'll see what happens.

''It's been a long time coming. A lot of 2-14 seasons and 3-13, and 6-10 seasons. To finally have a meaningful game in Week 17 and actually get in feels great, man. Our boys don't stop.''

Coach Mike Mularkey's job status reportedly was at risk with a loss. Controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk, who promoted Mularkey as an interim coach in November 2015 and gave him the job in January 2016, was in the locker room to greet her coach who just earned his first playoff berth in his fifth full NFL season.

Mularkey said he didn't feel the need to address the reports that he might be fired with his team.

Instead, he led the Titans to their first back-to-back winning seasons since 2007 and 2008, and linebacker Wesley Woodyard gave him a game ball after the game.

''It's more gratifying because I was here for two of the years that we weren't so good. To watch a team take a franchise and believe in something, and watch it turn around and become competitive every Sunday, where they have a chance to win every single Sunday, is gratifying,'' Mularkey said. ''That's what you coach for.''

Now the Titans have another goal they will try to scratch off Saturday: Win their first playoff game since January 2004.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL notebook: Lewis signs contract to remain Bengals' coach
January 2, 2018

Marvin Lewis is staying with the Cincinnati Bengals after all.

Ending weeks of speculation that his lengthy tenure as the Bengals' head coach was over, Lewis was signed to a two-year contract that runs through the 2019 season, the team announced Tuesday.

Although Lewis is the winningest coach in franchise history, posting a 125-112-3 record in his 15 seasons, Cincinnati has had back-to-back losing seasons following a run of four consecutive seasons with double-digit victories.

The Bengals finished 7-9 but won their final two games.

--Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer announced his retirement after 15 seasons in the NFL.

The 38-year-old Palmer was named to the Pro Bowl three times, but his 2017 season was cut short by a broken arm that limited him to seven games.

Palmer was a Heisman Trophy winner at USC in 2002, and was the first overall pick in the 2003 NFL Draft.

Palmer spent his first eight seasons with the Bengals before being traded to the Oakland Raiders. He played in Oakland for two years before playing five seasons with Arizona.

--Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford practiced with the team, marking his first participation in practice in nearly three months.

The Vikings held the first of two practices Tuesday during their first-round bye, and Bradford went through drills with the other quarterbacks for the first time since early October. Bradford underwent knee surgery on Nov. 7 and was placed on injured reserve.

Bradford's return to practice doesn't mean he will return to game action soon. He first would need to be activated off the injured list to be eligible to play, and the Vikings have two healthy quarterbacks in Case Keenum and backup Teddy Bridgewater.

--Green Bay Packer coach Mike McCarthy received a one-year contract extension during this past season, multiple outlets reported.

McCarthy is under contract through the 2019 season. He would have been entering the final year of his contract in 2018 without an extension.

The Packers fired defensive coordinator Dom Capers, inside linebackers coach Scott McCurley and defensive line coach Mike Trgovac.

--Ted Thompson will remain as senior advisor to football operations with the Packers, the team announced.

The move comes after the Packers announced that Thompson was out as the team's general manager. The Packers also said they will begin an "immediate search" for their next general manager.

--Jon Gruden now admits that he is a candidate for the Oakland Raiders' head coaching job.

Several news outlets, including ESPN, have reported that Gruden will be the Raiders' next coach after Jack Del Rio was fired following Sunday's game.

However, there was not any solid evidence that Gruden, now an NFL analyst for ESPN, would be interested in the position until a report by Jerry McDonald from the Bay Area News Group confirmed it.

"My understanding is they're interviewing candidates this week and they're going to let everybody know sometime early next week or whenever they make their decision," Gruden said, per the Bay Area News Group. "Well, I think I am being considered, yes. I hope I'm a candidate."

--Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown is making progress as he recovers from a partially torn calf muscle, coach Mike Tomlin said.

In fact, Tomlin said that Brown would be listed as questionable if the team was playing in the wild-card round this weekend. It suggests Brown has a good chance to play in the Steelers' first playoff game on Jan. 14.

--The Steelers announced that offensive coordinator Todd Haley suffered an injury in a fall but will be able to coach in the playoffs.

The team did not say how Haley was injured, but NFL Network reported he injured hip in an altercation at a bar.

According to the report, Haley was pushed outside a bar near Heinz Field on Sunday night following the Steelers' victory over the Browns.

Because of the injury, Haley may coach Pittsburgh's Jan. 14 game from the booth instead of the sidelines as he usually does.

--The Atlanta Falcons placed Andy Levitre on injured reserve after the left guard aggravated a left triceps injury, the team announced.

Ben Garland will get the start for the Falcons in Saturday's wild-card game against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

--Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson underscored his support of quarterback Nick Foles.

"My guy is Nick Foles, end of story," Pederson texted to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

The 28-year-old Foles completed 4 of 11 passes for 39 yards with an interception in limited action during Sunday's 6-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Earlier in the day, Pederson was asked whether he'd consider replacing Foles for Nate Sudfeld if the former struggles in next week's playoff game.

"It's hard to say right now until I'm in that situation quite honestly," Pederson told reporters. "Listen, it's a one-game season. It's hard to be in desperation mode, but if you are in that mode, you know, who knows? I do know this -- it's not about one guy. ... A lot of contributing factors go into winning a game."

--Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt was intent on winning the rushing title, so much so that the rookie smooth-talked his coach into letting him vie for the honor.

"He came to me and he wanted to play and he wanted to do this thing," coach Andy Reid said of Hunt, per ESPN. "I fought him a little bit on it, and he won that fight. He told me he'd get it taken care of quick, and he did that. My hat goes off to him."

Hunt didn't take long in accomplishing the feat on Sunday, rushing for a 35-yard touchdown on his lone carry against the Denver Broncos. Hunt (1,327 rushing yards) needed just 14 yards to pass Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley, who sat out his team's regular-season finale.

--Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is ahead of schedule as he recovers from a torn right anterior cruciate ligament, coach Bill O'Brien told reporters.

Watson, who sustained the injury during a non-contact play in practice, could return in some capacity for the Texans' organized team activities that span from mid-April until mid-June.

--The Andy & Jordan Dalton Foundation received a significant boost in donations from an unlikely group of fans.

Fans in Buffalo showed their appreciation to Andy Dalton by donating to the charitable foundation. The gesture comes on the heels of the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback tossing a 49-yard touchdown pass on Sunday that eliminated the Baltimore Ravens from postseason contention and sent the Bills into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

 

[Cnotes53]

Non-Playoff ATS Rankings
January 2, 2018

Fixing the Non-Playoff Teams

Instead of the ATS Power Rankings, it?s probably more pertinent to throw some attention to the teams that didn?t make the playoffs instead of the ones that did. We have plenty of time to vomit up hyperbole about what?s going to happen in a Wild Card Weekend that looks ominously bad. For now, I?m sure there are plenty of you that are interested to see how your favorite (or least favorite) team can improve heading in to the 2018 campaign.

We?re starting from top and gutting down to the bottom of the barrel where the second franchise in history to go winless will be waiting. Obviously, I can?t hit every single point here so I?m just covering the most important.

Seattle Seahawks (9-7 SU and 6-9-1 ATS)
The Legion of Boom is dead. Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril may never play football again due to neck injuries sustained earlier this year. Sherman and Thomas are on the last legs of their contracts, and basically cost nothing to cut. The Seahawks are in the best position to rebuild out of anyone so it will be a fascinating study to see Carroll work his magic. One of the elements that Pete has been exceptional at is targeting players who respond to him. That?s an unappreciated talent for coaching staffs. The Seahawks will always be a devastating force of nature with Wilson healthy.

Spending more than fifty bucks on their offensive line while reimagining a new defensive roster remain the top two priorities for the Seahawks. Finding better fans would also probably help. Yes, you guys abandoned this team when they needed you the most. You?re the 12th Man when they?re winning and the first people out the door when they lose. Don?t act like you?re the best fans in the world. You?re amongst the worst.

Baltimore Ravens (9-7 SU and 8-7-1 ATS)
Something has to be said about a Baltimore team always seems to be knocking on the doorstep. The explosion of the running game in Baltimore was absolutely necessary and due in large part to Alex Collins emerging as a tour de force. He absolutely covered the shortcoming of Joe Flacco, who pivoted one of the worst passing attacks in the league. Baltimore ranked 29th in passing and 27th in total offence, while banking on Justin Tucker to help score 24.7 points per game (9th overall).

Baltimore desperately needs help in the wide-receiver department where their best pass catcher was Mike Wallace. This team seems to whiff on draft picks in this area with guys like Chris Moore (4th Round ? 2016) and Breshad Perriman (1st Round -2015) failing to impress. In free agency, things get even worse for Baltimore as they?ve targeted over-the-hill talents like Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin. Flacco is not a great quarterback, but any passer gets better with improved receivers.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-7 SU and 8-7-1 ATS)
We can all agree that the Chargers are a better team than their record indicates, and that?s pretty much where it all begins. They lost to Denver by three points and Miami by two points in the first two weeks of the season to help go 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the first month of the season. After that, it was a ridiculous 9-3 SU and ATS the rest of the way. All they really need to do is get off to a better start. It might help if Los Angeles fans appreciated Phil Rivers and this talented team a bit more and came out to home games.

Dallas Cowboys (9-7 SU and 8-7-1 ATS)
It was alluded to two weeks ago, but the best thing that Dallas could do is go out an get Earl Thomas for whatever Seattle wants. Thomas is a Texas native and former Longhorn who made it known in Week 15 that he wants to go home. Thomas and Sean Lee would be a devastating combination. In the meantime, just send Zeke back to Cabo and keep him out of the spotlight. Dallas will undoubtedly be a threat in 2018. They would?ve made the playoffs had Zeke not been unjustifiably expelled for six games.

Detroit Lions (9-7 SU and 8-7-1 ATS)
It?s safe to say that Matthew Stafford played his part extremely well this season after signing the biggest contract in NFL history. And with Jim Caldwell gone, the sky is literally the limit for this team. Caldwell has been the ideal candidate to coach a team to a 9-7 SU record.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8 SU and 6-9-1 ATS)
The departure of two-time Coach of the Year Bruce Arians is a little sad, but probably needed in order to help replace some core players in the system. Namely Carson Palmer. There?s no doubt in my mind that Palmer can still play, but I don?t know if he can stay healthy. Having David Johnson for longer than the half-hour they did in 2017 will go a helluva long way, but finding a quarterback of the future is priority one for me.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS)
The Bengals already addressed the biggest need for the team by having Marvin Lewis step aside. Something has to be said for consistency, but that consistency has to lead to spikes in performance every now and then. Seven playoff losses and exactly zero playoff wins isn?t going to cut it, especially when this team hit peaks of 12-4 SU in 2015 and 11-5 SU in 2013.

A new play calling staff as well as a new voice in the locker room is bound to go a long way, but this franchise might be due for an overhaul from top to bottom. Who they hire to lead this club in to the franchise will determine everything, so right now the Bengals have gone from ?well here comes another frustrating year of Marvin? to ?who the hell knows?. I?m not sure which is better. Oh wait, yes I do!

Green Bay Packers (7-9 SU and ATS)
The team has seemingly found a running-back after churning through about a dozen over the past five years. That part is great, and whatever they can get out of an aging Jordy Nelson will be pivotal to their success next season. With Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are a playoff team and everyone knows this. That?s how important he is.

But as the one-year extension of Mike McCarthy and the firing of their general manger shows, the Green Bay Packers as a whole are getting frustrated by the lack of title banners hanging in Lambeau. Rodgers? injury helped justify the 2017 shortcomings. The patience will not be there if this team doesn?t make it to the NFC Championship next season.

Washington Redskins (7-9 SU and ATS)
The bridge has to be burned with Kirk Cousins, who has been franchised two years in a row and played like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The crazy thing is that he didn?t take a huge drop off even when he lost guys like Jordan Reed and rookie standout Chris Thompson. The craziest part about Washington refusing to extend Cousins is that they drafted him as an insurance policy for RG3, who is now out of the league. You got it right, Washington! What are you waiting for?

Every single fan in the nation?s capital should be pissed this offseason when Cousins cashes in elsewhere. If the 2017 NFL season showed us anything, it?s how hard it is for teams to find a quarterback. Washington didn?t just find one, they treated him like a bag of smashed crabs and now they?re going to lose him.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10 SU and 9-7 ATS)
Pay Jimmy. Sit back. Enjoy.

Denver Broncos (5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS)
Would you be surprised if I said that they just need a franchise quarterback? You shouldn?t be. That?s literally the only thing that?s been missing, and Elway can no longer be arrogant enough to believe that the defense to float a bad pilot. Kirk Cousins makes the Broncos an instant Super Bowl contender.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11 SU and 8-7-1 ATS)
The Bucs curiously clung on to Dirk Koetter when Jon Gruden expressed interest and that has to be the dumbest thing I?ve ever heard. The franchise has gone all-in on Jameis Winston, who finally got to munch on a W in Week 17, but it?s obvious that Koetter lacks the personality to put Winston in line. I?ve made my feelings about the former first overall pick well known, but the fact that the Bucs value Koetter?s services at all is baffling. What exactly has he done to make this team any better than when Lovie Smith was at the helm? Forget maintaining the tradition of being the off-season?s most hyped team, Tampa. Unless Gruden takes back the headsets, Tampa is due for an 8-8 SU season at best. Discipline starts at the top and Koetter lacks the authority to instill it.

New York Jets (5-11 SU and 9-6-1 ATS)
The Jets are taking a very curious pathway to rebuilding, and I kind of enjoy it. Todd Bowles is a great coach and the team was smart to not only retain him, but extend his contract. There?s no easy fix here. The Jets are leaking everywhere, but re-signing Josh McCown for one more season and giving him some young weapons to tutor will point this team in the right direction. There?s no beating around the bush ? the Jets are a long way from being competitive, but Bowles is one of the best in the game right now. The rebound to playoff form will happen sooner than most think, but not in 2018.

Miami Dolphins (6-10 SU and 5-9-2 ATS)
The Dolphins can be one of the most gun shy franchises in the league and the constant question of Cutler or Tannehill will plague how this team moves forward. Tannehill has done nothing to show that he?s really the kind of quarterback that teammates will lay out for, while Cutler completely vanishes for obscene stretches throughout the season. The problem for Miami is this incessant desire to be competitive every year without realizing that they don?t have the identity the Bills do, the coach that the Jets do or the everything that the Patriots do. No simple plug-n-plays will improve Miami next year. This team is fractured at the very top with an ownership group and a coaching staff that has plainly seemed out of its depth from Week 1. I just don?t see Miami as a team that can competently build a true contender.

Chicago Bears (5-11 SU and 8-7-1 ATS)
Firing John Fox, who never seemed to be all-in this season, is a start. Finding a quarterback whisperer to get Mitchell Trubisky looking more poised and less like a guy who?s about to lose his virginity would probably help too. The Bears are well built. They just need a coach that can bring it together. Carolina?s defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is probably my favorite quick-fix candidate to re-build the Bears in to the franchise we all know and love.

Houston Texans (4-12 SU and 7-9 ATS)
Along with the San Francisco 49ers, the Houston Texans will be the ?it? team in the lead-up to the 2018 NFL season. DeShaun Watson and J.J. Watt are everything to this team, and the drop-off when both were injured for the season was obvious. The defence just needs to improve slightly, and Watson converts this offence in to a ?what the hell are they even trying to do? in to a ?holy crap how fun is this? type of group. DeAndre Hopkins is in for a banner year in 2018, even if Bill O?Brien?s dimpled chin will be filling up my big screen TV too many times on Sundays. I?m so sick of that guy?s face.

Indianapolis Colts (4-12 SU and 8-8 ATS)
A healthy Andrew Luck is essentially the difference between the Colts being somewhat playoff ready, and picking top-5 in the draft. If they have bring in a well regarded offensive guru to reshape how this team scores points, as well as a general manager who doesn?t burn draft picks on bums, it?ll help too. But this entire franchise rests on the surgically repaired shoulders of Andrew Luck. He?s good enough to be the difference between 10-6 SU and 4-12 SU.

New York Giants (3-13 SU and 7-9 ATS)
As I?ve said multiple times throughout the year, moving on from Eli Manning is a dumb decision. Not just because he won two Super Bowls for the city, but because he?s a good quarterback who lost Odell Beckham extremely early in the season. I think the fix for the Giants is coach-centric. Manning, the return of Beckham and the potential arrival of a mercurial talent like Saquon Barkley could have a seismic impact on this franchise. McAdoo was a cancer that needed to go, and it will take some scrubbing to undo all the damage he created but the Giants are mystifyingly heading in to a murky future with Manning?s status unknown.

Cleveland Browns (0-16 SU and 4-12 ATS)
The Browns probably need to retain Hue Jackson, but they also really need to think about what the hell they?re going to do at quarterback. DeShone Kizer either didn?t respond to coaching, or is just so bad that it never mattered. Kizer doesn?t show any of the intangibles that quarterbacks need to succeed in the NFL. He holds on to the ball forever and tries to make hero throws. His entire career might be exemplified forever by the winless season he helped create.

A rookie leading the league in interceptions isn?t the most ridiculous thing that?s ever happened, but Kizer also didn?t do enough besides that to justify retaining him in to 2018. I?m all for young people having careers, but Kizer is like a lot of prospective quarterbacks who have flamed out in the league. The draft will be fascinating with the Browns notching two top-5 picks overall.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Top Wagers
January 4, 2018

What?s important to note about all the Wild Card weekend betting lines is that they?ve all essentially jumped by nearly 2.0 points each. Call it urgency on the part of the oddsmakers to get numbers in to the minds of you degenerates, and some times hastiness leads to mistakes. We all know how valuable even a half-point can be to the spread.

The Saturday slate of games is intriguing for one major reason: it features two teams that began the season full of promise, and two that absolutely did not. The defending NFC champion and the best team in the whole league for the first month will hit the spotlight against the surging Rams and MVP candidate Todd Gurley, while the Titans will try to see what they can do.

The crazy part? Money is generally split between both sides in each game relatively evenly. Let?s see why.

Tennessee Titans (9-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Sunday, Jan. 6th ? Arrowhead Stadium ? 4:35 p.m. ET
Wild Card Weekend Betting Line: Kansas City -9.0 (44.5)

Analyzing the last few weeks of the season are pivotal when grading the Titans. They beat Indy and Houston, which should come as no surprise, and then embarked on a three game losing streak against the Cardinals, Niners and Rams. To end the year and preserve their playoff lives, they were able to outlast a Jacksonville team that sort of didn?t care about the results.

The key there is that the point differential in the last four games of the season was just -1.5 points. That says a lot about this team?s ability to keep games close, which is essentially important since the Titans are facing the biggest spread of any team in Wild Card weekend betting.

That can be a bit misleading because the quality of the Titans? opponents was not that strong, and they relied on the big boot of Ryan Succop to carry them from field goal range. Despite Mariota being in his third season, the Titans are horrible at scoring touchdowns. While they were tied for third with 18 rushing touchdowns, they only threw for 14 passing touchdowns, which is the second worst mark in the league.

It?s also important to note that Todd Gurley ripped Tennessee apart for 278 total yards and 2 touchdowns, and while Kareem Hunt sort of plateaued as the season went on he can still rip Tennessee apart for the same type of damage. What I?m suggesting is that Kansas City?s offence can roll in this one, which explains why the spread is so high.

Tennessee will also likely be without DeMarco Murray, a relatively average producer who is an integral part of the misdirection that Murlarkey?s offence employs to free up running lanes for other players. Murray was used often as a blocker and a distraction because he?s much more difficult to game plan against.

By contrast, Derrick Henry is a beast but he takes an unusually long time to get to full speed. Once he?s there, as he demonstrated often this season, he?s basically impossible to bring down. But if you can penetrate the backfield, then he?ll fall over like a ton of bricks. Henry is that ?on paper? threat. It?s important to note that he quickly generated -15 yards rushing in the first quarter against Jacksonville before salvaging his day with an incredible pass-and-run touchdown.

If I?m so down on Tennessee?s offence, then why would the public be betting them at all? Because Kansas City?s defence is not that good. They not-so-secretly allowed the fourth most yards against (365.1) and were most vulnerable on the ground. They also allowed an 81.5 percent field goal percentage, which Succop can feast on to keep Tennessee in games.

The danger, of course, is Kansas City?s explosive offence. This is the same team that went 5-0 SU and ATS to star the season and 4-0 SU and ATS to end the season. In between, things got messy. One of the things beefing up the line in Kansas City?s favor is the fact they blew the Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos out of the water by an average of +11.8 points. In short, when this offence is firing, it can keep up with almost everyone.

The Titans have a remarkably well ranked defence all things considered. They?re 4th against the rush and 17th in overall scoring, but they also play in the middling AFC South so that helps explain things.

Weather is going to work against Tennessee more than anything. Cold really makes kicking field goals a nightmare affair, and even though Succop has been great, it?s not enough for me to believe that he can really move a ball that?s going to be stiffer against high winds. He?s their x-factor, and Mother Nature seems willing to nullify him.

The Chiefs are a tough pill to swallow but you have to just take this line at face value. While Kansas City began and ended the season amongst the best in the NFL, Tennessee has never made a true believer out of anyone. This line reflects that and you should follow suite. Tennessee?s offence just won?t be able to get going at Arrowhead with conditions leaning against them in a big way.

Wild Card Betting Pick ? Kansas City -9 (UNDER 44.5)

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Saturday, Jan 6th ? LA Coliseum ? 8:15 p.m. ET
Wild Card Weekend Betting Line: LAR -6.5 (48.5)

Now that we?ve spent way too much time breaking down Chiefs-Titans, we can make things simple here. There is absolutely no way I?m trusting the Atlanta Falcons. Not happening.

What exactly have they done to prove that they?re a worthy playoff team? Beaten Carolina at home maybe? Lost handedly to New Orleans? Edged Tampa by just three points? Been crushed by the Vikings?

I?m sorry but none of that makes me want to go screaming in their direction.

The tipping point for me here is the combination of Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, who can make live miserable for Matt Ryan. The league has seemingly figured out how to slow down Devonta Freeman, and while Julio is an obvious threat to take over the game, he hasn?t been on the same page as Matt Ryan all season. They are 1-for-11 in the red zone together. That?s awful.

Atlanta is mentally weak, and the Rams have all the confidence in the world while also knowing that this is just another step in the right direction for them. Win or lose, this franchise gets a victory and that relieves a lot of the tension that should plague a young playoff team.

But when you toss MVP Todd Gurley (yes I?m locking it in), this is a nightmare for the Falcons. The Rams have been remarkably good at knowing who they are. They?ve limited Goff?s exposure and ranked just 24th in passing attempts, while turning him in to one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the game. It helps when the Rams boast the best running back in the NFL, but it also speaks volumes to how well McVay knows his personnel.

Crank the Gurley hype train, punch your ticket and get on board. This will be a display.

I like the OVER on the simple premise that I like taking OVER?s and it?s not like Atlanta is offensively inept. With weather favoring both teams, this can be a track meet. I just think Atlanta will peter out by the time the third quarter arrives.

Wild Card Betting Pick ? Los Angeles -6.5 (OVER 48.5)

 

[Cnotes53]

Pro Picks looking to beat the spread in playoffs
January 4, 2018

Pro Picks heads into the postseason with an incredible record straight up, 70 games over .500. A coach would have a lifetime contract for such an impressive showing.

The key to picking NFL games, of course, is winning against the point spread. In that area, well, we need a rally, three games under the break-even mark thanks to a particularly damaging Week 16.

A strong playoffs served us well last year. So let's do it again.

No. 11 Tennessee (plus 7 1-2) at No. 8 Kansas City, Saturday

All four wild-card matchups have spreads in the same range. This one seems most out of whack.

While the Chiefs have not exactly recaptured their form of early in the schedule, when they were the NFL's best, they are on the rise. The dynamic offense has been rekindled, particularly sensational rookie running back Kareem Hunt.

''We look at it right around Game 12, you kind of see where they're at and if they have a bad play you say, `Whoop! There's the rookie wall,''' coach Andy Reid joked - yes, Reid has a very good sense of humor, folks.

''Sometimes I think that gets a little overrated, but we haven't seen that with him. He's done well and I think we're probably a little hypersensitive to that when you get around the middle of the season, that 12th game.''

This is the 17th game, and the trend for the Titans hasn't been good lately. They lost three in a row down the stretch and needed to squeeze past AFC South winner Jacksonville, which had nothing to gain last Sunday, to make the field.

The Titans won't last long in it.

BEST BET: CHIEFS, 23-10

No. 7 Carolina (plus 6 1-2) at No. 5 New Orleans, Sunday

This is the best looker of the four playoff openers, a confrontation between two of the league's strongest teams out of the NFL's top division. The Saints or the Panthers are as capable as any NFC squad to get to the Super Bowl.

New Orleans knocked off Carolina twice in the regular season, and is the more balanced side. It's also the more explosive team.

But if any of the road teams is going to spring an upset, it's Ron Rivera and the Panthers, who have a much more recent record of postseason success than do Drew Brees and the Saints.

UPSET SPECIAL: PANTHERS, 27-26

No. 9 Atlanta (plus 6 1-2) at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams, Saturday

So here come the more-experienced Falcons, ready to surge back to the Super Bowl and, this time, finish it off after building a big lead?

We don't buy it.

These aren't even close to being the same Falcons. Matt Ryan has had a problematic season, and the Falcons have made the kind of critical mistakes they avoided in 2016 - until the second half of that historic Super Bowl flop.

The Rams are young and eager and explosive and dynamic and ... well, superior.

RAMS, 27-19

No. 12 (tie) Buffalo (plus 7 1-2) at No. 10 Jacksonville, Sunday

The feel-good story throughout Western New York - there are college football players who might not have been born when the Bills last made it this far - ends rapidly. Barring a stunning recovery from his ankle injury by LeSean McCoy, the Bills will be one and done, even though the Jags have a bunch of questionable areas on offense, particularly QB Blake Bortles.

JAGUARS, 19-13

---

2017 RECORD:

Last week: Against spread (9-7). Straight up (9-7)

Season Totals: Against spread (117-120-10). Straight up: (162-92)

Best Bet: 9-8 against spread, 10-7 straight up.

Upset special: 9-8 against spread, 9-8 straight up

 

[Cnotes53]

Titans RB Murray ruled out vs. Chiefs
January 4, 2018

Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray has been ruled out of Saturday's wild-card game against the host Kansas City Chiefs, the team announced Thursday.

Second-year back Derrick Henry is expected to see a bigger workload in place of Murray, who sustained a slight tear in his MCL in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 24.

The 29-year-old Murray then sat out the regular-season finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Murray rushed for a career-low 659 yards this season and averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. He rushed for 1,287 yards and nine touchdowns with Tennessee in 2016.

Henry, who led the team with 744 yards rushing, made his second start of the season against Jacksonville and managed only 51 yards on 28 carries. He did, however, take a screen pass and rumble 66 yards for a touchdown.

 

[Cnotes53]

DeMarco Murray out for Titans, guard questionable vs. Chiefs
January 4, 2018

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Tennessee running back DeMarco Murray will miss his second straight game with the Titans ruling him out against the Kansas City Chiefs in their AFC wild-card game Saturday.

Coach Mike Mularkey had refused to rule the veteran running back out until Thursday.

Murray hurt his right knee late in a loss Dec. 24 to the Los Angeles Rams and has not practiced since. Murray finished the season with a career-worst 659 yards rushing, but he ran for six touchdowns. He also caught 39 passes for 266 yards with another TD.

Mularkey says starting left guard Quinton Spain is questionable for the Titans (9-7) against the Chiefs (10-6) because of his back.

Both tight end Jonnu Smith and cornerback Kalan Reed were cleared from the concussion protocol.

 

[Cnotes53]

RB Freeman will play against Rams
January 4, 2018

Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman is set to play in Saturday's wild-card game at the Los Angeles Rams.

Coach Dan Quinn told reporters on Thursday that no members of the team will be given injury designations on the final injury report of the week.

Freeman sat out Tuesday's practice with an ailing knee before participating with the team in each of the past two practices. Quinn said Freeman had no limitations while running and cutting on Thursday.

The 25-year-old Freeman told reporters that he wasn't concerned about the injury.

"No, because I feel good," Freeman said, per ESPN. "Because God's got me. I always was feeling good. ... In the NFL, you get banged up sometimes. You just have to try and figure out a way to get healthy; stay healthy. And I figured it out."

Freeman led Atlanta in rushing with 865 yards and added seven touchdowns on the ground despite missing two games due to a concussion. He struggled in the final two regular-season games, gaining a combined 59 yards on 22 carries.

 

[Cnotes53]

Falcons-Rams Capsule
January 4, 2018

LOS ANGELES (AP) ATLANTA (10-6) vs LOS ANGELES RAMS (11-5)

Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC

OPENING LINE - Rams by 5

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 7-9, Los Angeles 9-7

SERIES RECORD - Rams lead 47-29-2

LAST MEETING - Falcons beat Rams, 42-14, Dec. 11, 2016

LAST WEEK - Falcons beat Panthers 22-10; 49ers beat Rams 34-13

AP PRO32 RANKING - Falcons No. 9, Rams No. 4

FALCONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (13), PASS (8).

FALCONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (9), PASS (12).

RAMS OFFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (8), PASS (10).

RAMS DEFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (28), PASS (13).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Rams' first playoff game in 13 years is against defending NFC champions. ... Falcons were NFL's highest-scoring team last year. Rams were tops this year. ... Falcons in postseason for second straight year after last season ended with memorable collapse in Super Bowl. ... Falcons routed Rams 42-14 at Coliseum in December 2016. Rams coach Jeff Fisher was fired next day, eventually paving way for Sean McVay, who went to high school near Atlanta. ... QB Matt Ryan making sixth playoff trip in 10 years. He had 20 TD passes this season after throwing 38 last year as league MVP. ... Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur was Ryan's quarterbacks coach last season. ... Falcons' offense didn't flow under first-year coordinator Steve Sarkisian, who coached USC at Coliseum until getting fired in 2015. ... Falcons put starting LG Andy Levitre on injured reserve this week, changing O-line dynamic with Rams line-wrecker Aaron Donald looming. ... Falcons WRs Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu remain among NFL's best duos, combining for 2,147 yards and eight TDs. ... Rams GM Les Snead was in Falcons' front office for 13 years, and assistant GM Brian Xanders worked for Falcons for 14 years. ... Rams earned first winning season and NFC West title since 2003 and first playoff berth since 2004 season with spectacular one-year transformation under McVay, now youngest coach to make playoffs in NFL history, breaking record set by 33-year-old Ray Flaherty with Washington in 1936. ... No rookie head coach won NFL playoff game in any of past four seasons. ... Rams hosting wild-card playoff game for second time in franchise history, first since December 1984 in Anaheim. Rams haven't had playoff game at Coliseum since Jan. 7, 1979. ... Rams are only 4-10 at Coliseum in two seasons since relocation, going 3-4 this year. ... LA went from 32nd in NFL in scoring in 2016 to first in 2017. ... RB Todd Gurley led NFL with 2,093 yards from scrimmage and 19 total TDs. ... Rams LT Andrew Whitworth was key to turnaround. He is 0-6 in playoffs during career spent previously with Cincinnati. Whitworth is one of six Rams with playoff experience. ... Counting on new K Sam Ficken after Pro Bowl selection Greg Zuerlein got hurt last month. ... Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was Falcons defensive coordinator and interim head coach in 2003. ... Rams' last playoff game was at Atlanta in January 2005. Michael Vick ran for 119 yards in Falcons' 47-17 win. ... Rams are second team in NFL history to host playoff game in temporary home stadium. Minnesota did it three years ago.

 

[Cnotes53]

Titans-Chiefs Capsule
January 4, 2018

TENNESSEE (9-7) at KANSAS CITY (10-6)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN

OPENING LINE - Chiefs by 7+

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tennessee 8-7-1, Kansas City 10-6

SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 29-22

LAST MEETING - Titans beat Chiefs 19-17, Dec. 18, 2016

LAST WEEK - Titans beat Jaguars 15-10; Chiefs beat Broncos 27-24

AP PRO32 RANKING - Titans No. 11, Chiefs No. 8

TITANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (15), PASS (23)

TITANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (4), PASS (25)

CHIEFS OFFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (9), PASS (7)

CHIEFS DEFENSE - OVERALL (28), RUSH (25), PASS (29)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Franchises have not met in playoffs since Jan. 1, 1994, when Chiefs beat Houston Oilers 28-20 in divisional round. ... Titans beat Chiefs 19-17 on last-play FG in December 2016 at Arrowhead Stadium in coldest game in franchise history. ... Titans are in playoffs for first time in nine years. Their previous postseason win was Jan. 3, 2004, at Baltimore. ... Tennessee lost three of four entering playoffs. ... Titans are 3-0 in wild-card games played on Saturdays. ... Titans OLB Erik Walden is appearing in playoffs with fourth different team. ... Tennessee S Kevin Byard has eight picks, tied with Lions CB Darius Slay for NFL lead. ... Titans QB Marcus Mariota has 39 TD passes without interception in red zone. ... Titans allowed 88.8 yards rushing per game, best in AFC. ... Chiefs won back-to-back AFC West titles for first time in franchise history. ... Kansas City has won four straight after four-game skid. ... Chiefs have not won home playoff game since beating Pittsburgh on Jan. 1, 1994. They have one postseason win since. ... Kansas City had plus-15 turnover margin, second best in NFL. ... Chiefs rookie RB Kareem Hunt led NFL with 1,327 yards rushing. ... Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has receptions in 63 straight games. ... Kansas City scored 124 fourth-quarter points, second most behind Baltimore (135). ... Chiefs QB Alex Smith set career highs with 4,042 yards and 26 pass TDs. He also led NFL with 104.7 rating. ... Smith had 38 pass plays of at least 25 yards. Patriots' Tom Brady led NFL with 40. ... Chiefs OT Mitchell Schwartz will start 97th consecutive game. FB Anthony Sherman will start 80th. Both are league leaders at their position.

 

[Cnotes53]

Bills-Jaguars Capsule
January 4, 2018

BUFFALO (9-7) at JACKSONVILLE (10-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS

OPENING LINE - Jaguars by 7 +

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Buffalo 9-6-1, Jacksonville 9-7

SERIES RECORD - Bills lead 8-7

LAST MEETING - Bills beat Jaguars 28-21, Nov. 27, 2016

LAST WEEK - Bills beat Dolphins 22-16; Jaguars lost to Titans 15-10

AP PRO32 RANKING - Bills No. 12 (tie), Jaguars No. 10

BILLS OFFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (6), PASS (31)

BILLS DEFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (29), PASS (19)

JAGUARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (1), PASS (17)

JAGUARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (21), PASS (1)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Both franchises partying like it's 1999: Bills in playoffs for first time since then, and Jaguars hosting first postseason game since same season. ... Bills won three of last four in regular season, eked into playoffs when Bengals stunned Ravens by scoring on fourth-down pass in final minute. ... Bills snapped longest playoff drought in North America's four major professional sports. Buffalo's 17-year playoff drought is tied for fifth longest in NFL history and longest since NFL-AFL merger in 1970. ... Bills' last playoff game was Music City Miracle, in which Tennessee scored go-ahead touchdown on kickoff return lateral in final seconds to win 22-16. ... Bills haven't won postseason game since beating Miami in 1995. Buffalo is 0-3 since. ... Bills RB LeSean McCoy uncertain to play because of sprained right ankle. He accounts for 32.7 percent of team's yards and scored eight of offense's 28 touchdowns. ... Jaguars have lost two straight. ... Jaguars' Doug Marrone facing former team in first playoff game as head coach. Marrone opted out of contract with Buffalo in December 2014 and walked away with $4 million. Departure angered Bills fans and befuddled players and executives. ... Jaguars DT Marcell Dareus also faces former team. Bills traded 340-pound run stopper to Jacksonville in late October for sixth-round draft pick that improved to fifth when Jags made playoffs. ... TE Marcedes Lewis is only holdover from Jacksonville's last playoff game in 2008. ... LT Cam Robinson (abdomen) and DT Abry Jones (back) expected to return after missing regular-season finale. Leading WR Marqise Lee has high-ankle sprain that forced him to miss last week's game, but is preparing to play. ''In my head I'm going, so I'm just going to put it like that,'' Lee said. ''I'm getting it right.'' ... Jaguars have 11 players with postseason experience, seven fewer than Bills. ... Jaguars sold out entire ticket allotment in hours and then asked NFL and sponsors for permission to remove four tarps covering four sections of seats in upper deck. Both agreed, creating 3,501 more seats. Additional seating increased capacity at EverBank Field to 67,932.

 

[Cnotes53]

Panthers-Saints Capsule
January 4, 2018

CAROLINA (11-5) at NEW ORLEANS (11-5)

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET, Fox

OPENING LINE - Saints by 5+

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Carolina 9-7, New Orleans 8-8

SERIES RECORD - Panthers lead 24-22

LAST MEETING - Saints beat Panthers 31-21, Dec. 3, 2017

LAST WEEK - Panthers lost to Falcons 22-10; Saints lost to Buccaneers 31-24

AP PRO32 RANKING - Panthers No. 7, Saints No. 6

PANTHERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (4), PASS (28)

PANTHERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (3), PASS (18)

SAINTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (5), PASS (5)

SAINTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (16), PASS (15)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - NFC South rivals meeting in playoffs for first time. ... Teams had 12 games against common opponents, with Carolina going 10-2 and Saints 8-4. ... Panthers in playoffs for fourth time in five seasons. Lost in Super Bowl to Broncos two seasons ago. Missed playoffs last season. ... Ron Rivera is first Panthers coach with four playoff appearances. ... Carolina ranked third in NFL in sacks with 50 and was only team in NFC with two players getting 10-plus sacks each. DEs Mario Addison and Julius Peppers each had 11 sacks during regular season. ... Panthers TE Greg Olsen will play vs. Saints for first time this season after missing previous meetings with foot injury. ... Panthers QB Cam Newton has 10 TDs (eight passing, two rushing) in six career playoff games. ... Newton led NFL QBs with career-high 754 yards rushing, tied for league lead among QBs with six TDs rushing. He has three seasons with 700-plus rush yards, tied with Michael Vick for most by QB in NFL history. ... RB Christian McCaffrey ranked second among NFL rookies with 80 receptions, fourth most all-time by rookie RB. Ranked fourth among NFL rookies with 1,086 scrimmage yards. Set franchise rookie records in scrimmage yards and catches with 80. ... WR Devin Funchess led team with career-high 840 yards receiving, eight TD catches. ... LB Luke Kuechly was only Panther voted to Pro Bowl. Kuechly led team with 125 tackles, his sixth season with 100-plus, tied with LB Thomas Davis for most in team history. ... Saints are NFC South champions for first time since 2011, making first playoff appearance since 2013 season. ... Saints held tiebreaker over Panthers by winning both regular-season meetings. ... Saints in playoffs for sixth time since Sean Payton became coach in 2006. ... Saints were 7-1 at home this season, have won five straight home playoff games. ... QB Drew Brees completed 72 percent of passes, setting single-season NFL record. He ranked fourth in NFL with 4,334 yards passing, his NFL-record 12th straight season with 4,000-plus yards. ... RB Mark Ingram set career highs in yards rushing with 1,124 and scrimmage yards with 1,540. ... RB Alvin Kamara ranked second in NFL with 14 total TDs. Kamara was second among NFL rookies with 1,554 scrimmage yards. One of only two rookies in NFL history with five-plus TDs rushing, five-plus TDs receiving and at least one kick return TD. Other was Gale Sayers in 1965. ... WR Michael Thomas ranked third in NFL with 104 catches. He has 196 career receptions, most by player in first two seasons in NFL history. ... WR Ted Ginn spent three of previous four seasons with Carolina. ... DE Cameron Jordan tied for fourth in NFL with career-high 13 sacks. Jordan was only NFL DL with 10-plus passes defensed, including INT for TD. ... CB Marshon Lattimore leads Saints and all NFL rookies with five INTs.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Notes - Bills at Jaguars
January 4, 2018

Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Notes for Wild Card Weekend

If you didn't happen to see the celebration the Buffalo Bills had in their locker room in Miami following their win over the Dolphins, you need to watch it. The pure joy this team had when Tyler Boyd scored a touchdown on 4th and 12 for the Bengals to beat the Ravens is something that can only be described as awesome.

Now, the most improbable team to scoot into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season will take on one of the most improbable division champions we've seen in a long time in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Circling the Wagons

Of the teams in the four major sports in the United States, no team had a longer drought without a spot in the playoffs than the Bills. Their last playoff game was spoiled by the Music City Miracle way back in 2000. Facebook was four years away from being invented, and no one knew what a Tweet or a Snapchat was.

Bruce Smith was still with the Bills at that point, and Doug Flutie and Rob Johnson took turns quarterbacking that team.

That's how long ago it was that Buffalo was in the playoffs.

The last quarterback to win a playoff game for the Bills was Jim Kelly in 1996. Buffalo's last road win in the playoffs? 1993.

McDermott Looking to Make History

Sean McDermott is one of the two rookie head coaches to make the playoffs this year. The last time a rookie head coach won the Super Bowl in his first season at the helm was George Seifert back in 1989 with the San Francisco 49ers.

McDermott has a good history of coaching in the playoffs as a coordinator, though. He was the defensive coordinator for the Carolina team that reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and he was with the Eagles as a defensive backs coach in 2004 when they got to the Super Bowl. This isn't going to be completely new territory for him.

Back Where It All Began

When the Jaguars first came into the NFL, they were one of the quickest expansion teams ever to find success. They went on the road to Buffalo for their first ever playoff game in 1997 and beat the Bills 30-27 in one of the biggest upsets in Wild Card history.

The Jaguars have only hosted three playoff games in their history, a 25-10 win over the Patriots in 1999, a 62-7 win in the final game of Dan Marino's career in 2000 and a 33-14 loss to the Titans (who had just beaten the Bills with the Music City Miracle two weeks prior) a week later.

Since then, the team has only been in the postseason twice and has won just one game, a Wild Card round victory in Pittsburgh in the '08 playoffs.

Taking the Low Road

The total in the Bills/Jags game opened at 40 and quickly dropped to 39.5. History certainly suggests that this game is going to go past the total. Last year, there was just one playoff game that featured a total in the 30s, a 27-14 Texans win over the Raiders that eked past the total.

Since the 2012 playoffs, games with totals of 40.5 or lower are 4-1 for over backers.

Buffalo went 2-2 against the totals of 40 or lower this season. Jacksonville went 4-4 against such totals.

Bills vs. Jaguars Opening NFL Odds
Bills at Jaguars (-7, 40)

Bills vs. Jaguars Current NFL Odds (Updated 1/1)
Bills at Jaguars (-7.5, 39.5)

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - WC
January 5, 2018

Las Vegas sports book are hoping history doesn't repeat itself in the 2018 version of Wild Card Weekend, because the 2017 version absolutely crushed the entire city as all four home favorites won and covered the point-spread. That's 4-0 straight up with many of them linked up together in high paying parlays and teasers.

"This same weekend fell on January 7 and 8 last season," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal while reviewing his month over month ledgers for January. "We got beaten up pretty good and took a six figure loss on parlays."

A quick flashback to the playoffs last season shows the sports books got absolutely crushed where the favorite either won and covered or lost outright. The spread never came into play in any playoff game. The favorites went 9-2 straight-up and against-the-spread, the home team went 8-2 both SU and ATS and the 'over' went 8-3. The Super Bowl even went to overtime for the first time and saw the Patriots cover -3 with a six-point win (34-28).

That was certainly an NFL Playoffs for the ages for regular bettors. The way betting patterns have gone so far this week, last year's success is breeding the same type of action in 2018.

"The thing that stands out the most this week is that we don't have sharp bets on any of the four underdogs," said Simbal.

While the majority of bettors continue to play the favorites, the lesson learned by the sports books last season is to move the numbers quick and somehow lure underdog money as much as possible. But it's not happening much yet and the books have been baiting them with lots of movement off the original number.

Despite the Kansas City Chiefs going 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games, they are the most one-sided play of the four games this weekend.

"In the Tennessee-Kansas City game, we opened the Chiefs -7.5, like everyone else, and were pushed all the way to -8.5," Simbal said. "We've had four times more action on the Chiefs."

The Chiefs were one of the two favorites last season to lose outright with Pittsburgh (+2) winning 18-16 at Kansas City in the Divisional Playoff round. The unique thing about the Chiefs this season is that the spread hasn't mattered in any of their games. They have won and covered 10 games and lost six games without covering.

The Saturday night game has the defending NFC Champions Atlanta Falcons getting six points at Los Angeles against the high scoring Rams (29.9 PPG).

"We're actually pretty even with the Falcons and Rams, only $2,000 apart in action," Simbal said. "We seeing Falcons money-line action (+220) and Under money. We opened at 50 and we're down to 48. I think the Falcons are a team the public will get behind if they win at L.A. and they're also a team we don't do well with in futures."

CG Technology books have the Falcons at 22/1 (Bet $100 to win $2,200) to win the Super Bowl despite the risk on them. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has the Falcons at 20/1 and the Rams at 12/1 odds. A good case can be made for the winner of this game to be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.

Everyone keeps talking about the Bills making the playoffs for the first time in 18 years, which is awesome, but it's been 11 years since the Jaguars made it. They've been missed too. Fresh blood. Actually, that seems to be the theme this year with eight teams in the playoffs that missed last season's playoffs.

Jacksonville has the No. 2 ranked defense that had 55 sacks on the year and have won its last five games at home. The Bills best player, running back LeSean McCoy (ankle), stretched but didn't practice Thursday and is listed as 'questionable' for Sunday. He's worth just over 1.5-points to the number, but the number ran early on as if McCoy would miss.

"We opened Jaguars -7 and moved quickly because of the injury," Simbal said. "When we were Jaguars -8 Thursday, we had someone (not sharp) take the +8.5 with us. They're betting the Bills money line with us, they took +350, so we're going to be in a spot where we need the Jags to win but not cover. If I could write the book, it would be a Jags three-point win."

The Chiefs may have the biggest risk among the four games as of Friday afternoon, but on Sunday when the Saturday leftover risk calculates into Sunday's game, the New OrleansSaints are going to be the sports books most dangerous side, in part just because it's the final game of the NFL weekend posted. The other part is that 73 percent of the action already has been taking the Saints who have covered six straight against the Panthers.

"Our sharpest player laid the Saints -6 with us as soon as we opened the number and we went right to -6.5," Simbal said. "but we haven't seen any other large wagers at that number. We never went to -7."

The majority of Las Vegas books were dealing Saints -7 flat, but -7 EVEN is the best available for Carolina bettors.

Simbal will need the Panthers in this game, but he doesn't want them going far saying "the Panthers are our worst future liability."

Carolina is currently 30/1 to win the Super Bowl.

"Ideally, we would want one of the 'dogs to win outright this weekend, and have it not be the Bills, just so we can beat down some of the teaser risk," Simbal said.

The best outright win for the house would be Tennessee which William Hill books are offering a city-best at +380 on the money-line. It would immediately bank all the Chiefs parlay action and limit risk into the other three games. It would also kill the popular favorite money-line plays and kill almost every teaser right out of the gate.

It sounds crazy since the Titans have looked awful on the road and two of their three road wins came at Cleveland and Indianapolis, the lowest rated teams in the league, but you have to consider that quarterback Marcus Mariota went into Kansas City in Week 15 last season and won 19-17.

 

[Cnotes53]

WC - Panthers at Saints
January 5, 2018

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 ET, FOX

Carolina has a lot of pride, so losing to the Saints three times would be a dreadful way to close out a tumultuous season. That?s the fate that awaits Cam Newton and his Panthers if they can?t come through on the road in New Orleans. The final NFL wild card playoff pits the top finishers in the NFC South, teams that have each played in Super Bowls within the last decade and return the same coaches and quarterbacks who reached that summit.

In a conference where the top two seeds feature quarterbacks that entered the season as backups, the winner of this one will find itself in a great position, likely going into Philadelphia as a road favorite next week.

New Orleans, at home after winning the NFC South by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker held by sweeping both regular-season meetings, is expected to hold serve and is currently running second-likeliest to win the NFC (11/4) according to the Westgate. The Vikings (8/5) are favored, while the Panthers are the longshot among those still alive in the conference, available at 15/1.

The old clich? that it?s difficult to beat the same team three times in one season has been mentioned often since it applies here, but the truth is that the team that swept the regular-season series wins the playoff matchup 65 percent of the time. That?s been the case in the 20 instances since 1970, so a 13-7 mark suggests it?s not exactly as tough as it?s made out to be.

Aiding the cause for New Orleans is the fact that the Saints have been an elite team at home, joining Philadelphia and Minnesota atop the NFL with a 7-1 record. The Panthers have played two of their worst games of the season against their division rival, falling by double-digits (15.5) and surrendering an average of 32.5 points and 381 yards per game.

Carolina gave up over 120 yards on the ground only twice on the season, surrendering 149 and 148 yards, in the losses to New Orleans. Kamara wasn?t a major factor in the Week 3 clash in Charlotte, but in the most recent meeting, he and Ingram combined for 248 yards and three scores. Both teams went into the Week 13 showdown at 8-3, so the reason they?re back at the Superdome is directly related to what the Saints were able to do in that 31-21 win.

Kamara, the likely NFL offensive Rookie of the Year, is the only first-year player other than Gale Sayers to have 5 rushing TDs, 5 receiving TDs and a kickoff return for a score in the same season.

He?s capable of being the x-factor here, especially since he finally looked like his normal, explosive self last Sunday, breaking off a 19-yard run and taking a pass 40 yards in topping the 100-yard mark in a game for the first time since leaving the Dec. 7 Monday night loss in Atlanta with a concussion. His legs look fresh, while Ingram averaged a season-worst 2.7 yards per carry but hasn?t gotten more than 20 touches in a game since Jan. 12, so he should also be sharp.

Linebackers Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson are all healthy and ready to go to try and counter New Orleans? elite tandem of backs, which could open the door for Drew Brees to pick apart the Panthers secondary. Brees was dominant (74.6 pct, 489 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) against Carolina this season but is just 11-13 against them since joining the Saints in 2006. New Orleans has scored 30 or more points in 12 of those 24 games, including four of the last five.

Brees excelled thanks to the newly found offensive balance and set a new NFL record by completing 72 percent of his passes, breaking his own mark. He?ll be looking to help New Orleans become the first team to win three games against a division rival since Dallas owned the Eagles in ?09.

Since Carolina dealt Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills, it is a bit light on elite playmakers, but did get tight end Greg Olsen back in the mix and saw versatile rookie RB Christian McCaffery and big target Devin Funchess find the end zone it the most recent loss in New Orleans. Pulling off an upset here hinges on those guys making life easier for Newton.

The Panthers star has had sloppy run against an improved Saints defense, throwing just two TDs against three picks. For his career, he?s 3-3 in the postseason, tossing 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Those aren?t Superman numbers, but we?ve seen him come up with big games in the playoffs before, both in college and the pros.

One thing Newton hasn?t done in the postseason is win a game outside of Charlotte, coming in 0-2 with a loss in Seattle and in Santa Clara in Super Bowl 50. Turnovers played a huge role in both setbacks.

Oddsmakers? Take

New Orleans opened as a 5-to-5.5-point favorite but have gotten up into the 7-point range as kickoff approaches. Scott Cooley, spokesman for Bookmaker.eu, explained why their number opened where it did.

?Given how this series played out during the regular season, the average bettor might expect a number closer to a touchdown. But we know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be.

The number is at 6.5 as of Friday at Bookmaker, and is likely rising.

?We?re hesitant to move to the key number, but that's where we're likely headed given the fact that the wiseguys are on the Saints along with the public,? said Cooley. ?Of course, if we put up -7, we?re going to see some value action on Carolina, but we may need it because the public will bet the favorite Sunday.

"The spread money handle favors the home side 70-30 at this point. The total has been bet down with sharp money, but we?re not terribly concerned about that liability as there will be plenty of public action on the over.?

Injury report

The major concern for New Orleans revolved around No. 1 receiver Michael Thomas? hamstring, which has healed sufficiently enough for him not to show up on the final injury report, so he?s full go. Thomas has caught 196 passes in his first two seasons, surpassing Miami?s Jarvis Landry for most in NFL history.

Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui has cleared concussion protocol, a boost since they lost Coby Fleener to a head injury early last month. Tackle Terron Armstead and DE Trey Hendrickson are questionable. The Saints lost safety Kenny Vaccaro and LB A.J. Klein in December.

Carolina has tackle Matt Kalil (illness) and guard Trai Turner (concussion) listed as questionable in addition to WR Funchess (shoulder) and backup QB Derek Anderson (illness), but all are expected to be available. The defense will have DT Vernon Butler (shoulder), DEs Mario Addison (hip) and Wes Horton (ribs), CB Ladarius Gunter (illness) and safety Kurt Coleman (ankle) available.

 

[Cnotes53]

WC - Titans at Chiefs
January 5, 2018

The Titans and Chiefs kick off the NFL playoffs on Saturday from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Tennessee never won more than two games in a row this season, but the Titans did just enough to clinch a playoff berth with a Week 17 home victory over Jacksonville. Kansas City went through a roller-coaster season but it finished on a high note as the Chiefs are back in the playoffs for the third consecutive year.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Tennessee (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) finished 9-7 last season, but fell short of the playoffs for the eighth straight year. The expectations were raised in Nashville in the wide-open AFC South, but the Titans lost the season opener to the Raiders. Tennessee rebounded with consecutive victories over Jacksonville and Seattle, but then suffered a humiliating 57-14 defeat at Houston in Week 4. To make matters worse, quarterback Marcus Mariota injured his hamstring and eventually missed the following week?s loss at Miami.

The Titans would then catch fire by winning four consecutive games, including three straight victories by four points or less against the Browns, Ravens, and Bengals. Following a 23-point setback at Pittsburgh, Tennessee captured back-to-back division wins over Indianapolis and Houston to be in a prime spot to grab the AFC South title. However, three consecutive losses to NFC West teams derailed any chances at a division championship, but a 15-10 triumph over Jacksonville in Week 17 wrapped up a Wild Card spot.

Kansas City (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS) took home the AFC West title for the second consecutive season, but it certainly didn?t come easy. One season following a 12-4 record and a divisional playoff appearance, the Chiefs busted out of the gate with a 5-0 record, including victories over the Patriots and Eagles. Kansas City was thought to be the top seed in the AFC, but Andy Reid?s squad dropped five of its next six games.

The first defeat came to the Steelers in Week 6 as 3 ?-point home favorites, 19-13, the third setback to Pittsburgh since the start of last season. The Chiefs also dropped a pair of games to the dreadful New York teams at Met Life Stadium, while losing in the final seconds to Oakland after blowing a late nine-point lead. Kansas City put things together in the last four weeks of the season by pulling off a 4-0 record, including three wins against AFC West opponents.

WHO TO WATCH

The Chiefs drafted quarterback Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech in the first round this season to compete with the incumbent Alex Smith. However, Smith put together a terrific season by throwing for 4,042 yards, 26 touchdowns, and five interceptions, setting career highs for passing yards and touchdowns. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt solidified the Chiefs? backfield by racking up 1,782 yards and scoring 11 total touchdowns. Two Chiefs put together 1,000 yard receiving seasons as Tyreek Hill (1,183) and Travis Kelce (1,038) reached that level, while combining for 15 touchdowns.

Following a 26-touchdown performance in 2016, Mariota took a major step back by throwing for half that number this season with 13 touchdowns and a career-high 15 interceptions. The Titans did not have a 1,000 yard rusher or receiver, but were led by the two-headed monster of Derrick Henry (744) and DeMarco Murray (659) in the backfield, even though Murray will be out on Saturday with an MCL injury. Delanie Walker hauled in a team-high 74 catches for 807 yards, while Rishard Matthews led the team in touchdown catches with four.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Titans and Bills are the only two playoff teams to own losing records on the highway, posting a 3-5 mark. Two of the three wins for Tennessee came at Cleveland (in overtime) and Indianapolis, while blowing out Jacksonville in Week 2. In the role of a road underdog, the Titans compiled an 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS mark with a cover at San Francisco and a defeat at Pittsburgh.

Kansas City has always seen success at Arrowhead Stadium as the Chiefs put together a 6-2 SU/ATS mark at home. The two losses came to the Steelers and Bills, while going 2-1 SU/ATS as a touchdown favorite or higher.

SERIES HISTORY

Tennessee and Kansas City didn?t meet this season, but the Titans have seen recent success against the Chiefs. The Titans cruised past the Chiefs in the 2014 season opener at Arrowhead, 26-10 as three-point underdogs, as Tennessee intercepted Smith three times. Last season, Tennessee went into Kansas City again and knocked off the Chiefs, 19-17 as six-point underdogs. The Chiefs built an early 14-0 lead but folded in the final three quarters as Henry reached the end zone twice for Tennessee, who outscored Kansas City, 12-0 in the fourth.

The Chiefs have never faced the Titans in the playoffs, but last took on the Houston Oilers in the 1993 divisional playoffs and picking up a 28-20 victory at the Astrodome to reach the AFC Championship game.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

The Titans are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, when Tennessee entered as the top seed at 13-3 before getting tripped up by Baltimore in the divisional round, 13-10. The last time the Titans won a playoff contest came in 2003 against the Ravens, while the past four playoff games have finished UNDER the total.

For the fourth time in five seasons under Reid, the Chiefs are headed to the postseason, but they have not won a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium since 1993. Kansas City owns a dreadful 1-10 record in its past 11 postseason contests with the only victory coming in the Wild Card round at Houston in 2015. Last season, the Chiefs fell short in the divisional playoffs at home to the Steelers, 18-16, the fifth straight home defeat in the postseason.

TRENDING UP

VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins provides a trend supporting the UNDER for Kansas City, ?The Chiefs are 0-11-2 OU since Dec 13, 2015 at home coming off a game where they covered.? That trend is 0-3-2 to the UNDER this season, which includes the victory over Washington in Week 4 when the Chiefs scored a defensive touchdown on the final play of the game.

BOOKMAKER?S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says bettors are staying away from the Titans like the plague, ?If we don?t get more Tennessee money, the Chiefs side could also reach double digits. No average bettor believes in the Titans, and the sharps want nothing to do with them. Currently, we have more than 75 percent of the money on Kansas City.?

FUTURE ODDS

The Titans and Bills are the longest shots to make the Super Bowl out of the 12 teams remaining at 50/1 according to the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook. Kansas City sits at 10/1 odds to win the AFC championship, while listed at 20/1 to capture its first Super Bowl title since 1970.

 

[Cnotes53]

Best Bets - WC Sunday
January 5, 2018

NFL Wildcard Weekend ? Sunday's Best Bets

Sunday's Wildcard action brings us some great storylines in the sense that we get to see divisional rivals do battle for the third time this year and two teams that haven't been in the playoffs for a decade or more square off to try and get to the divisional round. Carolina/New Orleans Part 3 should be a great game from start to finish, but it's this Buffalo/Jacksonville game that's got me intrigued.

Buffalo is making their first playoff appearance since the 1999 season, while Jacksonville hasn't seen postseason football in a decade. The Jags are nearly double-digit favorites against this Bills team that celebrated their playoff berth (thanks to Cincinnati's help) like they won the Super Bowl, but is the number correct?

Best Bet #1: Buffalo/Jacksonville Over 39

Truthfully I'm not entirely sure what to make of the point spread in this Bills/Jags game although I do believe this is the best game on the board to put in a teaser. I'll get to that a bit later, but for now it's this total I'm focused on as this is much too low.

Everyone knows that Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy is a game-time decision for this contest and even if he does play, chances are he won't be that effective. That's a huge blow to this Bills attack because the Jags defense is by far much worse against the run. But with Jacksonville's defense being tops in the NFL against the pass, Buffalo doesn't really have a choice in this game if they want to succeed, they are going to have to run the ball and they should find plenty of success doing so no matter who is starting at RB.

It all starts with QB Tyrod Taylor and his mobility in and out of the pocket to keep this Jags unit on its toes. Whether Taylor hands it off, scrambles to run, or scrambles to throw, Jacksonville always has to be aware of all his options and that alone should open up things for Taylor and this Bills attack. The Jags may have had little to play for the last two weeks, but they did give up three rushing TD's to San Francisco in Week 16 and you'd better believe that the Bills will take any info they can from the film of that game to try and implement it themselves. After all, it's not like Jags QB Blake Bortles isn't prone to turning the ball over, and if that happens, Buffalo's chances of putting up points with a short field get even better. The Bills are 9-4 O/U in their last 13 against a winning team, and as big underdogs in a winner-take-all game, what do they have to lose by being ultra aggressive?

The fact is though, that in the end I do believe Jacksonville wins this game SU by at least a FG which puts them as my strongest play for a teaser. But while many look at the Jags as a team with one crappy QB in Bortles, a great passing defense and a stout running game, they fail to acknowledge that this Jags offense with Bortles has been on a roll of late with 30 or more points scored in four of their last five games. Even with a predominantly ground attack, this Jacksonville team has been lighting up the scoreboard (helped by their own defense forcing turnovers), and RB Leonard Fournette and the rest of the Jags ball carriers should have a great afternoon against a Bills defense that was last against the run in the second half of the season. That matchup spells absolute disaster for Jacksonville and I believe it's a main reason why oddsmakers opened up this spread as high as they did.

With both teams likely having tremendous rushing success against one another ? after all they were built the same a year ago and played a 28-21 game, and have seen five straight meetings cash 'over' tickets ? and both QB's prone to turning the ball over, I don't see how we don't get at least 40 points in this game. In fact, this game could end up being the highest scoring game of the entire weekend.

As for that teaser play, teasing down Jacksonville to anywhere below -4 and the 'over' down to the low 30's is something I highly recommend.

Best Bet #2: Carolina/New Orleans Under 47.5

Let me start off by saying that while I am passing on the side in this game I am keenly interested in the result. There are arguments to be made for both sides here, but I do believe the SU winner of this game will be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Both teams have great defenses this year and play with a physical brand of offense that nobody else in the conference really wants to see. It's a shame that these two rivals have to meet this early in the playoffs, but it is what it is.

But getting a NFC South team to represent the conference for the third straight season in the Big Game isn't an off the wall prediction given that things in the sports world have been going in threes of late; We've had three Alabama/Clemson CFB Playoff games the last three years, and Cleveland and Golden State have met in the NBA Finals three straight times. Mark me down for sports fans seeing it occur again with one of these NFC South teams playing for the Lombardi Trophy in early February.

Beating a rival SU three times in one season is tough, but the last 20 times it's happened in the NFL, the team looking for the sweep ? in this case New Orleans ? is 13-7 SU. That's a positive for Saints ATS and/or SU backers, but with the spread floating around the TD range, I just believe that number is spot on and could go either way. But getting back to the total, both of the previous meetings between these two went 'over' the posted number but I do believe we see a flip flop with the stakes much higher in the postseason.

For one, Carolina allowed the Saints to score 30+ on them in both losses this year and can't afford to let that happen a third time if they want to pull off the upset. With both defenses definitely have a solid understanding of what to expect from the offenses in the third meeting, making it now a simple matter of execution ? I believe you've got to side with the defenses in that regard. That point is even more important for the Panthers who know they aren't likely to win a game in the 30's here on the road and would much rather make this a 20-17 type contest.

Secondly, while Saints home games are always perceived as shootouts during the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era, that hasn't exactly been the case this season. Yes, there have been some 'overs' and some shootouts ? most notably a 52-38 win vs. Detroit in Week 6, since that game the Saints have allowed five of the six teams they've faced at home to 21 points or less, with an average of 17.6 points allowed per game during that entire span. That's not exactly a number I want to be going against, regardless of the 2-0 O/U mark Carolina/New Orleans games have this year. And that number would be a whole lot lower if it wasn't for the lone outlier (34-31 OT win vs. Washington) in those final six home games for New Orleans.

So with historical trends between these two supporting an 'over' play, and perception of Saints home games still being a race to see who scores 30 first, I think we see the validation of the Saints transformation process to becoming a run-first team that we've seen all year with a relatively low-scoring game here. Either team winning SU would not surprise me, but I don't think we see either side score more than 24 points.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wild-Card Playoff Round Game Scout: Titans at Chiefs
January 5, 2018

TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)

GAME SNAPSHOT

KICKOFF: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium. TV: ESPN/ABC, Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters (field reporter), Adam Schefter (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 52nd all-time meeting. Chiefs lead series, 29-22, including two wins in as many playoff meetings over the Oilers/Titans franchise. The first playoff meeting was in the 1962 AFL Championship, with the then-Dallas Texans topping the Houston Oilers 20-17 in overtime. The clubs met again in the 1993 AFC divisional playoffs, with Kansas City winning 28-20. The teams have split their last 10 games, the Titans pulling out a 19-17 win at Kansas City last season. The Titans have won four of the past five games at Arrowhead Stadium.

KEYS TO THE GAME: The Titans have had issues running the football much of the season, but Kansas City has been vulnerable against the run, ranking near the bottom of the league. If the Titans can run, including getting Marcus Mariota involved, it should make play-action effective for chances downfield. DeMarco Murray will not play for the Titans.

Kansas City leans on a high-powered offense, but the club's wins have revolved around the defense and turning over the football. The Chiefs must contact Mariota and force him to beat them from the pocket, where Mariota often struggles with interceptions. If the Chiefs win the turnover battle and keep the Tennessee ground game in check, that should be all that quarterback Alex Smith and the offense need to pull off the club's first home playoff win in 24 years.

In their past few meetings against Smith, the Titans have been able to get the quarterback to make uncharacteristic turnovers. The Titans have to keep the Chiefs' big-play trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt in check. In Hill and Hunt, the Chiefs have more team speed than most of the teams the Titans have seen this year.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Titans S Kevin Byard. Head coach Mike Mularkey hinted that the ball-hawking Byard could draw the assignment on Pro Bowl tight end Kelce at least some of the day. That is a tall order, but Byard has proven trustworthy and has shown a knack for big plays in bunches this season.

--Titans RT Jack Conklin vs. Chiefs OLB Justin Houston. The Chiefs would love to get Houston on the edge terrorizing and chasing Marcus Mariota. Conklin, an All-Pro as a rookie, will have to be up to the test against one of the NFL's best pass rushers. Houston led the Chiefs with 9.5 sacks and Conklin gave up only two. The Chiefs don't necessarily need Houston to bring down Mariota to win, but they need Houston setting the edge to contain Mariota in the pocket and play a role in slowing down the Titans' running game.

--Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill vs. Titans CB Adoree' Jackson. Hill recorded nine plays of more than 40 yards, including six touchdowns. Jackson led Tennessee with 17 passes broken up. Teams who leave Hill facing press coverage without safety help often find themselves chasing Hill from behind. The Chiefs thrive on deep balls to Hill.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: RB DeMarco Murray (knee)

--Questionable: G Quinton Spain (back)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Status Report

--Doubtful: DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle)

--Questionable: LB Tamba Hali (knee), DE Jarvis Jenkins (knee), WR Albert Wilson (hamstring)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Titans QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota did not have a good season statistically, throwing more interceptions (15) than touchdown passes (13). That can all be erased, however, with a strong playoff performance in Kansas City. This is his first playoff game, and quarterbacks are ultimately judged in the postseason.

FAST FACTS: The Titans are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Tennessee tied for third in the AFC with 43 sacks. ... The Titans were one of two teams in the NFL (New England) to have three players with five rushing TDs each -- RB DeMarco Murray (6), RB Derrick Henry (5) and QB Marcus Mariota (5). ... RB Derrick Henry led Tennessee with a career-high 744 rushing yards. He had three TDs of 65 yards or more from scrimmage, most in the NFL. ... TE Delanie Walker led the team with 74 catches and 807 yards. He and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce are the only NFL tight ends with 800 receiving yards in each of the past four seasons. ... LB Wesley Woodyard led Tennessee with a career-high 121 tackles and was one of two NFL players with at least 100 tackles and five sacks (5). ... The Chiefs have won back-to-back division titles for the first time in franchise history. ... Head coach Andy Reid has led Kansas City to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. He has 11 postseason victories, second among coaches in the 2017 playoffs (Bill Belichick has 26). ... QB Alex Smith led the NFL with a career-high 104.7 passer rating and was one of three QBs (Tom Brady and Drew Brees) with 4,000 yards (4,042) and fewer than 10 interceptions (5). He has 3,000 yards and fewer than 10 INTs in five consecutive seasons, the longest streak in NFL history. ... RB Kareem Hunt led the NFL with a Chiefs rookie record 1,327 rushing yards. He led all rookies and ranked third in the NFL with 1,782 scrimmage yards. ... TE Travis Kelce led all NFL tight ends with 83 catches and ranked second with 1,038 yards. He and Tony Gonzalez are the only players in Chiefs history with consecutive seasons of 80 catches and 1,000 yards. ... WR/PR Tyreek Hill ranked fourth in the AFC with a career-high 1,183 receiving yards. He had six TDs of at least 50 yards TDs, most in the NFL.

PREDICTION: The Chiefs are better than the Titans at the skill positions, and the veteran Alex Smith should have an arm up on the playoff rookie Marcus Mariota.

OUR PICK: Chiefs, 27-20.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wild-Card Playoff Round Game Scout: Falcons at Rams
January 5, 2018

ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (11-5)

GAME SNAPSHOT

KICKOFF: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. TV: NBC, Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 79th all-time meeting. Rams lead series, 47-29-2. The Falcons beat the Rams 47-17 in the only meeting in the playoffs, on Jan. 15, 2005. The Run DVD offense, which featured Warrick Dunn, Michael Vick and T.J. Duckett, rushed 40 times for 327 yards against the Rams in the only playoff of the former NFC West division foes. The Falcons moved to the NFC South in 2002.

KEYS TO THE GAME: The Falcons, who average 115.4 rushing yards per game (13th in the league), must run the ball in order to slow down the Rams' pass rush. The Rams give up 122.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the league.

The Rams need to get pressure on Matt Ryan and put him in difficult throwing situations, something they are fully capable of given their dominant pass rush. Their excellent front is led by four-time Pro Bowl tackle Aaron Donald, who had 11 sacks this season. The Rams had 48 sacks, which was fourth in the league. Robert Quinn had eight, Connor Barwin five and Michael Brockers 4.5.

The Falcons will be without guard Andy Levitre, who aggravated his triceps injury against the Panthers and was placed on injured reserve.

The Rams need to take care of the football. When they do that, they win, overwhelmingly. That aside, it's imperative Todd Gurley gets going early and often, be it in the running or passing game. Establishing Gurley as a weapon allows Jared Goff to pick apart defenses in play-action and opens the field for receivers Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Falcons WR Julio Jones vs. Rams CB Trumaine Johnson. The Rams' best cover corner will draw a big-time assignment vs. Jones, one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL who brings 88 catches, 1,444 yards and three touchdowns to the table.

--Falcons LT Jake Matthews vs. Rams DT Aaron Donald. Donald is the most dominant interior defensive lineman in the NFL. He registered 41 tackles and 11 sacks and can put pressure on quarterbacks unlike any other D-lineman in the league. He will be a handful vs. Matthews, a skilled run and pass blocker who provides top-level protection for QB Matt Ryan.

--Falcons RB Devonta Freeman vs. Rams LB Alec Ogletree. Freeman suffered a knee injury against the Panthers and missed some time at practice. The Falcons average 115.4 yards rushing per game, which ranked 13th in the league. Ogletree is the Rams' leading tackler. The Rams give up 122.4 yards rushing per game, which ranks 28th in the league.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

ATLANTA FALCONS

No Players Listed.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

--Doubtful: WR Mike Thomas (ankle)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Rams WR Robert Woods. He totaled 56 catches for 781 yards and is expected to be a significant factor. The fifth-year veteran has emerged as one of Jared Goff's go-to receivers.

FAST FACTS: The Falcons were one of two NFC teams with two 100-tackle players; LB Deion Jones had 138 and S Keanu Neal had 113. ... QB Matt Ryan has 41,796 career passing yards -- most by a player in his first 10 seasons in NFL history. He threw for 4,095 yards, his franchise-record seventh consecutive season with 4,000. ... RB Devonta Freeman had 1,182 scrimmage yards, his third consecutive season with 1,000. ... WR Julio Jones led the NFC with 1,444 receiving yards. In his past four postseason games, he has 30 receptions for 516 yards and five TDs. ... The Rams won the NFC West, their first division title since 2003. ... The Rams are the second team in NFL history to lead the league in points (29.9 per game) after scoring the fewest (14 ppg) in the previous season. The 1964 San Francisco 49ers also did it. ... Sean McVay, 31, is the youngest coach in NFL history to lead his team to the playoffs. ... QB Jared Goff ranked third in the NFC in passer rating (100.5) and tied for fifth in TD passes (28). ... RB Todd Gurley led the NFL with 2,093 scrimmage yards and 19 TDs. He is the third player in NFL history to have 2,000 scrimmage yards (2,093), at least 10 rushing TDs (13) and more than five TD catches (6). O.J. Simpson (1975) and Marshall Faulk (2000 and 2001) were the others.

PREDICTION: Gurley and the Rams' offense are more dynamic than Matt Ryan's Falcons. As long as the Rams can turn it back on after resting in the finale, they should handle Atlanta.

OUR PICK: Rams, 26-21.