Cnotes53 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[Cnotes53]

Week 13 Betting Notes
November 28, 2017

Business is definitely starting to pick up on the road to the NFL playoffs. Almost all of the top teams in the league are on the road in Week 13, including six of the eight division leaders. There are some great storylines for bettors to keep in mind before heading to BookMaker.eu this week and placing wagers.

The Greatest Show on Grass

The Rams haven't had a winning season or been in the playoffs since 2004, but they're well on their way to breaking that 13-year playoff hex this season.

This week, Los Angeles is favored by a touchdown on the road against the Cardinals. The Rams haven't been favored on the road often since the "Greatest Show on Turf" fizzled out, but this week, they're giving a full touchdown to the Cardinals in the desert. It's the first time the Rams have been favored by this many points on the road since 2003 when Kurt Warner was the quarterback, Torry Holt was in the prime of his career and Steve Bartman was just another fan in the bleachers at Wrigley Field during the Cubs' run to the NLCS.

A Two-Dog Night in Seattle

The Seahawks aren't accustomed to being underdogs at home. In fact, prior to the game three weeks ago against Atlanta, the last time Seattle was an underdog at CenturyLink Field came back in Russell Wilson's rookie season.

Seattle didn't open up as a pup to the Falcons but did close that way. Now, they're opening as underdogs at BookMaker.eu in their very next home game against the Eagles. It's the first time in five years that the Seahawks have been pups in consecutive home games, and it could be the first time they've lost three straight games at home since 2008.

De Ja Vu in the Windy City

The Bears are virtually never favorites, and we found out why that's the case four weeks ago when they welcomed the Packers to Soldier Field. They were beaten 23-16 in what is still, to date, the only win in Brett Hundley's career.

Chicago has now lost four straight games in which it was a chalk, a mark that dates back to the 2015 season.

This week, the Bears are 5-point favorites against the 49ers. The last time they were favored by this many points in any game was in the first week of December in 2015 when this same San Francisco team came to the Windy City.

De ja vu much?

A Chalky November

The only game left to play in the month of November is the Thursday nighter between the Redskins and the Cowboys. Heading into the last game of the month, favorites are a whopping 37-15-4 ATS, huge month for public bettors.

On Thursday Night Football, we're going to be in a situation where the underdog Redskins are the public side. Dallas has been beaten in three straight games with Ezekiel Elliott serving his six-game suspension.

NFL Week 13 Odds
Redskins at Cowboys (-1, 44)
Lions at Ravens (-2.5, 42)
49ers at Bears (-5, 39.5)
Vikings at Falcons (-3, 47.5)
Patriots at Bills (+9, 49)
Broncos at Dolphins (-1, 38)
Texans at Titans (-7.5, 42)
Colts at Jaguars (-9.5, 41)
Buccaneers at Packers (OFF)
Chiefs at Jets (+5, 44)
Panthers at Saints (-4, 47.5)
Browns at Chargers (-13, 42.5)
Rams at Cardinals (+7, 45.5)
Giants at Raiders (-7.5, 44)
Eagles at Seahawks (+3, 48)
Steelers at Bengals (+5.5, 43)

 

[Cnotes53]

49ers turn to Jimmy Garoppolo as starting quarterback
November 28, 2017

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) The San Francisco 49ers are ready for the start of the Jimmy Garoppolo era after announcing Tuesday that the franchise's quarterback of the future will make his first start for the team this week.

Coach Kyle Shanahan met with Garoppolo and former starter C.J. Beathard to inform them that Garoppolo will make his first start for San Francisco (1-10) on Sunday at Chicago (3-8).

The Niners acquired Garoppolo on Oct. 31 from New England for a 2018 second-round pick to be the franchise's long-term quarterback even though he had made only two starts in three-plus seasons for the Patriots.

After taking time to learn the new offense, Garoppolo made his San Francisco debut in Sunday's 24-13 loss to Seattle after starter Beathard left with injuries to his hip and knee with just over a minute left.

Garoppolo completed both passes, including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Louis Murphy. Now he will get an even bigger opportunity to show what he can do for his new team.

Garoppolo has little NFL game film to go on but his performance in those two starts last year when Tom Brady was suspended was impressive and made him a highly sought after quarterback. He completed 42 of 59 passes for 496 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against Arizona and Miami.

He got hurt in the second quarter of his second start and has thrown just six passes since then - including the two on Sunday - but the Niners still believe he's the player to build around.

Garoppolo is eligible to become a free agent in the offseason but the way he plays down the stretch could help set the market for what he will be worth and facilitate a long-term deal with San Francisco. The 49ers also have the option of using the franchise tag to keep Garoppolo if they can't reach a long-term contract.

Beathard made five starts as a rookie after taking over from Brian Hoyer, who replaced Garoppolo as Brady's backup in New England. Beathard completed 54.9 percent of his passes, averaged 6.4 yards per attempt and had four TDs and six interceptions for a 69.2 passer rating.

Beathard was also sacked 19 times and hit many others while playing behind a patch-work line that could get starting right tackle Trent Brown back this week after he missed the most recent game with a shoulder injury.

 

[Cnotes53]

Geno Smith will start in place of Eli Manning for Giants
November 28, 2017

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) The Eli Manning era with the New York Giants may be coming to an end.

And if it is, it is ending ugly.

The Giants announced Tuesday that the two-time Super Bowl MVP was being benched for the first time in more than 13 years so they could evaluate the other quarterbacks on the roster over the final month of a lost-and-injury-filled season.

The decision to sit the 36-year-old Manning was totally unexpected, especially with five games left in the regular season.

It was clear the decision hurt and annoyed Manning, who has been the face of the Giants (2-9) since they made a bold draft day trade with the-then San Diego Chargers in 2004 to swap first-round picks and get the No. 1 overall selection to the Meadowlands.

Manning expressed his unhappiness but once again he played the good soldier, voicing his support for veteran Geno Smith, who will start against Oakland on Sunday.

His emotional pain was all over his face. His eyes welled with tears talking to reporters. His chin quivered when asked about how much this hurt. His face got red the more he talked.

Coach Ben McAdoo gave Manning the option of starting to keep his streak of 210 consecutive starts alive, but he didn't want any part of that.

''You start knowing you are going to come out of the game to keep a streak alive, maybe, that's not what it is about,'' Manning said.

''It's not a preseason game where you are going to start to the half, the next week a quarter, a series, that's not fair. That's not fair to me, not fair to Geno, not how you play. You play to win. When you are named the starting quarterback you think it's your job to go win the football game.

''If you are going to play a little bit, I didn't think it was the right way to play,'' said Manning, who became the Giants starting quarterback 10 games into his rookie season in 2004, which was about a month or so before Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz turned 12 years old.

Manning's voice broke when asked how this one hurt, noting it was one of his hardest days as a Giant.

''It's been a hard day to handle this, but (I'll) hang in there and figure it out,'' he said.

Manning spoke with the media for less than four minutes. He then took his backpack and left the locker room.

McAdoo said he made the decision to start Smith over the weekend, and co-owner John Mara and general manager Jerry Reese were in agreement.

''This is not a statement about anything other than we are 2-9, and we have to do what is best for the organization moving forward, and that means evaluating every position,'' Reese said in a statement.

''I told Eli this morning that an organization could not ask for anymore in a franchise quarterback. He has been that and more. Nobody knows what the future holds, but right now, this is what we think is best for the franchise.''

McAdoo, the second-year head coach, said the organization needed to learn more about Smith and rookie third-round draft pick Davis Webb in the final weeks of the season. Smith took four snaps in a blowout loss to the Rams. Webb has not played.

McAdoo refused to say if this was the end of the Manning era.

''I have a lot of confidence in Eli as a player, as a quarterback,'' McAdoo said. ''But at this point, it's my responsibility for the organization to make sure we take a look at Geno and at some point take a look at Davis and give them the opportunity to show what they can do.''

Manning and Smith were told about the decision on Tuesday, and later the team was filled in.

McAdoo also plans to give Webb an opportunity, but probably not this week. Manning, who recently passed the 50,000-yard mark, will be the backup.

Webb called Manning the best teammate he has ever had.

''If you had a Mount Rushmore of not only New York Giants, but New York athletes, he'd be on it,'' Webb said.

Manning's streak is the second-longest streak by a quarterback in NFL history, behind Brett Favre's 297.

Manning has started every Giants game since Nov. 21, 2004, when he took over for veteran Kurt Warner in the 10th game of his rookie season.

Manning has also started 12 postseason games, and twice led the Giants to Super Bowl victories.

Warner, now a NFL Network analyst, criticized Tuesday's decision by the Giants and said he was happy that Manning said he didn't want to start to protect his streak.

''This is so much bigger than Eli Manning,'' Warner said. ''This is about an entire organization that has gone sideways. If you've got one guy that represents what this organization has been about and the character and the success of this organization, it's that guy that has been under center in Eli Manning. He's never done anything but show character and do things the right way.''

A second-round pick in 2013, Smith signed with the Giants as a free agent in the offseason after being released by the Jets. He played in only two games in 2016 with his season ending with a major knee injury.

Smith told Manning that he supports him and has his respect.

''This guy has done a tremendous job in this league,'' Smith said. ''He has done a bunch of things for this organization and none of that can ever be taken away or forgotten. This is a business and it's tough. My number is up so it is my time to go out there and do what I am supposed to do and make sure I get the job done.''

Manning holds almost all of the franchise's major passing records. This season, he has thrown 14 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He will turn 37 on Jan. 3.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL notebook: Giants replace Manning as starting QB
November 28, 2017

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning probably would have preferred to be answering questions about last week or better yet, the upcoming week's game.

Instead, the veteran quarterback who has started 210 straight games for the Giants was standing before a crowd of reporters, at times fighting to hold back tears as he talked about the stunning decision by Giants coach Ben McAdoo to name Geno Smith the starting quarterback for this weekend's game.

Manning, who has two years left on his contract, was asked about the future. Composing himself, he said. "I don't know. I don't know. One week at a time."

--Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start since joining San Francisco when the 49ers play the Chicago Bears on Sunday.

San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan met with Garoppolo and C.J. Beathard on Tuesday to inform them of his decision.

Garoppolo was acquired by the 49ers in a trade with the New England Patriots last month. He made his debut with his new team on Sunday in mop-up duty after Beathard left with a leg injury.

Garoppolo entered the game with just 1:07 remaining, but had enough time to throw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Louis Murphy in the 24-13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Beathard started the past five games after replacing Brian Hoyer, who began the season as San Francisco's starting quarterback.

--Running back Darren McFadden announced his retirement after 10 NFL seasons.

McFadden was officially waived by the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, although news of the impending release occurred the day before. He played his first seven seasons with the Oakland Raiders before joining the Cowboys.

McFadden topped 1,000 rushing yards twice in his career -- compiling a career-best 1,157 for the Raiders in 2010 and 1,089 for the Cowboys in 2015. McFadden was the fourth overall pick of the 2008 draft. He rushed for 5,421 yards and 28 touchdowns and also had five receiving scores.

--Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told reporters that he has plenty of confidence in quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

With injured Carson Palmer pondering retirement, Arians was if he'd be confident with Gabbert as his starter next season.

Gabbert has fared well in two games as the starter for the Cardinals, recording a 61.1 completion percentage and 87.6 passer rating. The former first-round pick has been thrust into action with Palmer sidelined by a season-ending broken arm and backup Drew Stanton nursing an injured knee.

--USC quarterback Sam Darnold dismissed a rumor that he would stay in school for his junior season should the Cleveland Browns secure the top overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.

NFL Network's Albert Breer told Cleveland radio station 92.3 The Fan earlier this month that Darnold is "going to take everything into account and that includes who's at the top of the draft."

--Defensive back Dave Cloutier, who was the first native of Maine to play for the New England Patriots, died earlier this month at his home in Palm Coast, Fla., the team announced.

The Patriots said Tuesday that Cloutier died on Nov. 6 at the age of 78. The team did not disclose any details on the cause of death.

Cloutier signed a free agent deal with the then-Boston Patriots in 1964. Cloutier led the Patriots with 20 punt returns for 136 yards while appearing in 12 games that season as a defensive back and punt returner.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 13
November 29, 2017

THURSDAY, NOV. 30

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at DALLAS (NBC/NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys no wins or covers last 3 minus Zeke. Dallas 3-14-1 vs. spread last 18 without Zeke (pre-dating his arrival in Dallas). Skins have covered 3 of 4 since home loss vs. Dallas on Oct. 29. These teams have split spread decisions each of previous 4 years, and Skins have covered 9 of last 10 at Dallas. Jay Gruden ?over" 24-8 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Skins and slight to ?over,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

SUNDAY, DEC. 3

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered three of last four TY, two of those via shutout. Balt ?over? 10-6 last 16 since late 2016. Lions 3-1-1 vs. line away this season, also ?over? 8-3 in 2017, 10-3 last 13 reg season since late 2016.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Lions, based on ?totals? and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 4-2-1 vs. line since switch to Trubisky at QB. Chicago 4-1-1 vs. spread at Soldier Field this season and 7-2-2 vs. points at home since mid 2016. Niners had dropped three straight vs. line prior to win over G-Men, and not-so-bad 3-2 vs. spread away TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Hot Vikes have now won and covered six in a row. Also ?over? 4 of last 5 this season. After dropping five in a row vs. line, Falcs have now won and covered three in a row. Falcs also "over" last two after 16-3 ?over? a year ago.
Tech Edge: Vikings and "over," based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Belichick has now won seven in a row SU and covered last 5, and 6 of last 7, TY. Bills 1-3 SU and vs. line last four and 2-4-1 last 7 vs. number TY. Pats have only lost once SU last 13 at Orchard Park (in 2011) and are 10-2-1 vs. spread in those games. Five of last six meetings at Buffalo have been ?over? though Belichick ?under? 5-2 last seven in 2017.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to ?over,? based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos no wins or covers last seven TY, that?s the longest Denver skid since 1967! Dolphins, however, 0-4-1 vs. line last four TY. Broncos no wins or covers last seven as visitor.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans now have a win minus Deshaun Watson TY but still just 2-3 vs. spread in games he does not start. Revenge for Titans after 57-14 loss back in Week Four. But Tennessee just 1-7 vs. spread last eight against Texans. Titans now on 20-9-1 ?over? run and last four and six of last seven in this series ?over? as well.
Tech Edge: "Over? and slight to Texans, based on ?totals? and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags only 1-3 vs. line at home TY (as opposed to 5-1 vs. spread away), now 2-7 vs. points last nine at EverBank Field. Colts just 2-3 vs. spread away TY but have covered three of last four overall. Jags won 27-0 at Lucas Oil back on Oct. 22 and have now covered last five in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Old NFC "Central" rivals. Bucs were recently on 1-8-1 spread skid before winning and covering twice, but still 3-9-1 vs. line last 13 since late LY. Pack however on 2-4 spread skid since Aaron Rodgers went down, and no covers last three at Lambeau TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Packers, based on extended Bucs woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skidding Chiefs 1-5 SU and vs. line last six TY and lost at this site two weeks ago vs. Giants. Andy Reid had been 15-3 vs. spread previous 18 away from Arrowhead before dropping these last three. Jets 6-121 vs. spread last nine TY and have covered six of last seven at MetLife (5-1 TY).
Tech Edge: Jets, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts were the last team Browns beat and the only SU win for Cleveland since 2016! But Brownies 2-9 vs. spread TY and now 8-29-1 last 38 on board since early 2015. Browns also ?over? 6-1 last seven away. Bolts 6-1 vs. line last seven TY and have covered last two as chalk. Bolts also ?under? 10-5 last 15 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Saints are 8-1 SU last nine TY and are 6-3 vs. line those games. Though note just 2-3 vs. spread at Superdome TY. Saints have now covered five straight in series, including both in Panthers? Super Bowl season of 2015, one of those games minus Brees. Panthers 5-1 vs. line away TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams ripped Big Red 33-0 in London back on Oct. 22. LA was were 5-0 SU and vs. spread away TY before losing at Minnesota. Rams won SU last two at Glendale when they were bad. Even after Jags win, Big Red 3-7-1 vs. spread TY and now on 6-14-1 spread skid since mid 2016. Cards also ?under? 7-4 TY.
Tech Edge: Rams, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Giants ?under? 10-4 last 14 away, though Raiders ?over? 7-2 last 9 at Coliseum. Oakland though is ?under? 6-5 TY. Raiders also on 2-6-1 spread slide TY, while G-Men 3-3 vs. line away.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under? and Giants, based on ?totals? and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Eagles have won last 9 SU and covered last 8 TY, also won and covered last three away. Philly also ?over? 9-3-1 away since last season. Seattle on 4-8-1 spread skid in reg.-season games for Carroll. Seahawks 1-5 vs. line last 6 as reg.-season host.
Tech Edge: Eagles and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

MONDAY, DEC. 4
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel has won last six SU, covering four, though just 3-3 vs. line away TY. Tomlin now working on 4-game win streak vs. Marvin Lewis, and Pittsburgh has won and covered last three in reg season at Paul Brown Stadium and four in a row SU, including playoff win in 2015. Bengals ?under? 10-4 last 14 since late 2016, Steel ?under? 8-2 TY.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and Steelers, based on ?totals? and series trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL opening line report: Divisional showdown in New Orleans highlights Week 13
Patrick Everson

"We know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don?t be surprised to see this finish at -3."

Week 13 on the NFL docket includes a divisional battle for first place among two teams that finished below .500 last season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)

New Orleans went 7-9 SU last year and lost its first two games this season, then made an impressive about-face with eight consecutive victories (7-1 ATS). However, the win streak came to an end Sunday for the Saints (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS), who lost to the Los Angeles Rams 26-20 as a 2.5-point road underdog.

Carolina, which reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago before a dismal 6-10 SU campaign last year, has won and cashed each of its last four. The Panthers (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) were 5.5-point chalk at the New York Jets on Sunday and covered when a late field goal finished off a 35-27 victory.

?It?s tough to trust either of these teams, in my opinion, but they are both quality clubs,? Cooley said. ?Obviously a ton on the line, given the division climate, and we know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don?t be surprised to see this finish at -3.?

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Without question, Philadelphia is the class of the NFC and perhaps even the whole league. The Eagles (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have won nine in a row on the field and eight straight against the oddsmakers, including Sunday?s 31-3 rout of Chicago as a 14-point favorite.

Seattle (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) is always a playoff threat, but with its depleted defense ? no Richard Sherman or Kam Chancellor, among others ? and a surprising Rams squad in the NFC West, things won?t get any easier. The Seahawks weathered the injuries Sunday to notch a 24-13 victory at San Francisco laying 7 points.

?This is the first time Seattle has opened as a ?dog in a long time, but it?s certainly warranted here,? Cooley said. ?Philadelphia is playing like the second-best team in the league, and the Eagles are not far behind the Patriots in our power ratings. Early action indicates this will get past the key number sooner than later.?

And indeed it did, as Philly moved to -4 for this Sunday night prime-time showdown.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

The loser of this Thursday night meeting can probably start thinking hard about next season. Dallas has lost its last three games, all without suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who still must sit out three more games. The Cowboys (5-6 SU and ATS) got dumped by the Los Angeles Chargers 28-6 as a 1-point home pup on Thanksgiving Day.

Washington, also 5-6 SU and ATS, played the Turkey Day Thursday nighter and came away with a 20-10 win over the New York Giants giving 7 points at home.

?Despite an early move to -1.5, I?m sure we?ll see some sharp money on Washington at some point,? Cooley said. ?The Cowboys have had their backs against the wall for two weeks, and they?ve come out flat each time. I?d be hard-pressed to bet on this Dallas squad right now.?

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Minnesota has been far more stout than expected this season, with third-string quarterback Case Keenum proving quite capable, complemented by a solid defense. The Vikings (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) are on a seven-game winning streak, besting Detroit 30-23 on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point road chalk to cover for the sixth straight week.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta continues to look up at Carolina and New Orleans just within the South Division. The Falcons (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won and cashed three straight, though, topping Tampa Bay 34-20 as a 10.5-point road favorite Sunday.

?My gut feeling is that this will come down a decent bit. Some of the team wanted to see -1 or -2 here, instead of the field goal, but that?s what we settled on,? Cooley said. ?The Falcons are certainly no cakewalk for opponents, but it will be interesting to see how they handle that vaunted Vikings defense.?

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.

Thursday, November 30

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WASHINGTON (5 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 6) - 11/30/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 3

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DETROIT (6 - 5) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (3 - 8) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) at BUFFALO (6 - 5) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 112-80 ATS (+24.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 118-83 ATS (+26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-53 ATS (+23.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (3 - 8) at MIAMI (4 - 7) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 58-82 ATS (-32.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-80 ATS (-33.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (4 - 7) at GREEN BAY (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (6 - 5) at NY JETS (4 - 7) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (8 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 3) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 112-82 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 64-41 ATS (+18.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 11) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (8 - 3) at ARIZONA (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 182-228 ATS (-68.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 182-228 ATS (-68.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 82-117 ATS (-46.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 130-180 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-180 ATS (-57.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (2 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 38-77 ATS (-46.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (10 - 1) at SEATTLE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 66-37 ATS (+25.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (9 - 2) at CINCINNATI (5 - 6) - 12/4/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 104-73 ATS (+23.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 30

WASHINGTON @ DALLAS
Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington


Sunday, December 3

SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Chicago is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 18 games

HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Minnesota

DETROIT @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against New England

INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

DENVER @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Denver

KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
NY Jets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

CLEVELAND @ LA CHARGERS
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games

CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

NY GIANTS @ OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 15 games on the road
Oakland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 11 games at home

LA RAMS @ ARIZONA
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games

PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13
Monty Andrews

The Jaguars come into the Week 13 with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 39.5)

49ers' wretched red-zone record vs. Bears' bend-but-don't-break D

It's a battle of teams who will likely have high picks in the 2018 draft when the Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. The Bears have dropped four in a row to sink to the bottom of the NFC North division - a disappointing development considering Chicago was near the .500 mark prior to the skid. Getting back there is highly improbable, but Sunday's encounter with the 1-10 49ers offers hope thanks to a sizeable edge in opponent red zone play.

Bettors can dig up a variety of factors for San Francisco having just one victory on the season - and near the top of the list is the 49ers' season-long inability to convert trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line into touchdowns. San Francisco comes into Week 13 ranked 25th out of 32 teams in red-zone touchdown rate, reaching the end zone just 48.2 percent of those time. All those wasted trips downfield offer a reasonable explanation for why the 49ers average just 17 points per game in 2017.

Life doesn't get any easier for the San Francisco offense in this one, as the host Bears have actually been a solid defensive unit when it comes to red-zone scoring prevention. Teams have turned red-zone opportunities into six points just 48.7 percent of the time against Chicago, the 11th-best rate in the league. Neither team is expected to put many points on the board - check out that total - but give the Bears a big green checkmark in the red-zone D department - and that mismatch could very well decide this one.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40.5)

Colts' terrible QB protection vs. the phenomenon known as "Sasksonville"

The Jacksonville Jaguars can't get to Week 13 quickly enough. After seeing their four-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Jaguars will look to regain sole possession of top spot in the AFC South as they host the division-rival Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is already a near-double-digit favorite in this one, and could make it a blowout if they can exert their pass-rush dominance against a Colts team that has struggled to protect the quarterback.

Losing Andrew Luck for the season was certainly a blow to the Indianapolis offense, but it isn't like the Colts' offensive line would have done a good job of shielding him, anyhow. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been taken down a league-high 47 times so far this season; only two teams allowed more sacks than that in the entire 2016 season. Jacoby Brissett absorbed five sacks the last time these teams met, when Jacksonville cruised to a 27-0 victory back on Oct. 22.

But don't take all those takedowns personally, Jacoby - that's just how the Jaguars roll. They come into the week with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall. The Jacksonville defense has been incredibly proficient in a number of areas - sitting tied for third in forced fumbles (17), sharing the lead in recovered fumbles (11) and scoring a league-high four touchdowns on those recoveries - but it's all those sacks that should have Colts fans and bettors alike concerned this Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 42.5)

Browns' robust run game vs. Chargers' ground struggles

Will Cleveland win a game this season? You might fancy a wager if you believe the Browns will pull out a win somewhere along the way - but don't expect that victory to come in Week 13, with the visitors a nearly-two-touchdown underdog against a Chargers team that has rolled to back-to-back victories and sits just one game back of division-leading Kansas City in the AFC West. But stay tuned, bettors: Cleveland might have a way to keep this one closer than expected.

Cleveland's offensive struggles are well noted - the team averages a league-worst 15.1 points per game on the back of a passing attack in which the Browns complete just over 54 percent of their attempts. But the running game has actually been an area of strength so far in 2017, averaging an impressive 4.4 yards per carry - the seventh-highest mark in the league. Isaiah Crowell has been able to move the chains for most of the season, provided that he doesn't get knocked out of the game script.

The Chargers will look to force Cleveland into repeated third-down situations, with the Browns converting a league-worst 30 percent of those opportunities to date. But Los Angeles might have trouble keeping the Browns from excelling on the ground - the home side is allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season, tied with New England for the worst rate against in the NFL. If Crowell can break off a handful of meaningful runs, the Browns could control the clock sufficiently to cover this massive spread.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 45.5)

Rams' elite kicking game vs. Cardinals' field goal follies

The Los Angeles Rams essentially control their playoff fate as they head into Arizona for a Sunday afternoon appointment with the NFC West-rival Cardinals. The Rams own a one-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks atop the division, and can help bolster their postseason chances with a win this weekend. Much of the focus will be on the Los Angeles offense taking on Arizona's impressive defense - but let's not overlook the kicking game, where the visitors own a significant advantage.

Good teams get meaningful contributions from just about everyone on the roster - and the Rams certainly fit that bill, with terrific quarterback play from Jared Goff, an elite running game led by Todd Gurley and a stout defense anchored by Aaron Donald. But we can't forget placekicker Greg Zuerlein, who is having a career year with 32 field goals on 34 attempts through 11 games - including a 16-of-17 success rate on kicks of 40 yards or longer. The Rams' 94.1-percent field goal conversion rate ranks fourth overall.

The Cardinals have given plenty of points away via the turnover; they cough up the ball an average of 1.6 times per game, ranking 26th out of 32 teams entering the week. But they've also been negligent when it comes to spoiling field-goal opportunities. Kicker Phil Dawson has whiffed on six of his 23 field-goal attempts, including four from 30-39 yards. Not only do the Cardinals rank 25th in conversion rate league-wide, they've also seen opposing kickers make every field-goal attempt through 11 weeks.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Tuesday, November 28



Week 12 faves 12-4 ATS
Last 2 weeks faves 22-7-1 ATS (75.9%)
Since Week 7 faves are 55-24-6 ATS (69.6%)


Top NFL ATS Teams:
1. Eagles 9-2 ATS
2. Vikes 8-3 ATS
t3. Pats 7-4 ATS
t3. Panthers 7-4 ATS
t3. LARams 7-4 ATS
t3. Saints 7-4 ATS
t3. Texans 7-4 ATS


Top NFL Over teams:
1. Lions 8-3
t2. Pack 7-4
t2. Titans 7-4
t2. Skins 7-4


Top NFL Under teams:
1. Steelers 8-3
t2. Cards 7-4
t2. Bears 7-4
t2. Chargers 7-4
t2. Seahawks 7-4

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's Best Bet
November 29, 2017

NFL Week 13 TNF Betting Preview (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys

It's rare that you get a TNF matchup with both teams on full rest but that's precisely what we've got for this NFC East showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys. The NFL has done a better job of making sure the full rest scenario for TNF now happens twice a year (Week 1 and after Thanksgiving) by pitting two combatants on TNF the week following their games on Thanksgiving, and acknowledging that for this contest should be your first step in breaking down this game.

After that it's all about breaking down the stats, trends, etc for two teams that basically have their seasons on the line this week. Both Washington and Dallas sit at 5-6 SU and two games behind the projected final wildcard spot in the NFC, meaning that the loser of this game is likely done in 2017, while the winner gets to cling on to their playoff hopes for at least another week.

Washington (-1.5); Total set at 45.5

Although it's still early in the week, this game has already seen the favorite flip-flop for this contest after Dallas opened up in the -2 range. The Cowboys have been a hot mess since RB Ezekiel Elliott began serving his suspension, as it's been three straight weeks of scoring 9 points or less in three losses by at least 20 points.

Dallas' offense has only scored a grand total of two TD's during those three outings and now have what was once a promising 2017 campaign on the fringe of being a lost cause. There is also the fact that the revenge angle is working against the Cowboys this week as well as they beat Washington 33-19 at the end of October back when things were still hopeful and optimistic for this club.

Given the recent stretch of play by the Cowboys it's no surprise to see them flip over to underdogs for this game as there is little trust or faith in this team's ability to score right now. Losing Elliott is definitely part of it, but the entire offense looks like a shell of its former self as they can't even make many plays in the passing game. If that continues, then Dallas' season will be over rather quickly here, but you've got to figure that after three straight weeks of futility and the fate of their playoff chances basically on the line, this ultra-conservative Cowboys attack we've seen over the past three weeks may turn over a new leaf.

Washington's 5-6 SU record feels a lot different than Dallas' as they've missed quite few opportunities late in games to get the W. They managed to seal the deal against the lowly Giants a week ago, but prior to that they had a OT loss with a blown late lead to New Orleans, a comeback against Minnesota fall short, and close losses to Philadelphia and Kansas City as well.

Had the Redskins gotten a few breaks go their way, there record would be much different then it is at the moment. It's Washington's inability to close that has me hesitant to jump on board with them here, even with the line move, especially when nearly 80% of the action has already come their way.

However, the side isn't the only number that's moved on this game as plenty of 'over' action on this contest has pushed the opening number of 44 up to it's current standing. Even with it being the majority play, I fully agree with this move on multiple levels. For one, the Cowboys anaemic offense forced bookmakers to open this number a shade low, and with both franchises in do-or-die mode with suspect defenses behind them, we easily could get a shootout between these two teams.

With playoff aspirations hanging on by a thread, what do either of these teams have to lose by going out and being hyper-aggressive with their playcalling and take plenty of shots down the field? Playing not to lose has cost both of these teams multiple victories this year, and now the margin for error is next to nothing. Neither team really has a running game that they can reliably count on at the moment, and that means the ball will be in both QB's hands to make it happen. Both teams rank basically in the bottom third of the league against the pass this year (Washington is 19th, Dallas is 21st) and with the talent they've each got on the outside, seeing the passing game succeed in this contest should surprise noone.

These two are no strangers to high-scoring games either as each of the past four meetings between the two have cashed 'over' tickets, and the most recent three games in that stretch all closed with totals of 46.5 or higher. Washington is also on a 14-3 O/U run in their last 17 games against an opponent with a losing record, and that includes a 5-0 O/U run on the road when said opponent has a losing record at home.

The Redskins on the whole are on a 20-8 O/U run away from home, and the defense that allowed 10 points to the Giants last week isn't one that typically backs up a strong performance with another one.: The Redskins are 6-1 O/U after allowing 14 or less points in their last game.

The Cowboys recent scoring drought may be cause for concern to some, but it's only a matter of time before QB Dak Prescott and this attack find their groove again (at least through the air). Maybe it takes the added pressure of having their season on the line to kickstart that momentum, but I'm sure a division rivalry game in primetime doesn't hurt the idea of them getting amped up as well.

Chances are this total will continue to climb as we get closer to kickoff, but at 45.5 the number is still a little too low here and I'll be joining the early masses here in expecting this game to sail past that number.


Best Bet: Over (45.5)

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Thursday, November 30

Washington @ Dallas

Game 301-302
November 30, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
133.989
Dallas
130.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1); Over


Sunday, December 3

Detroit @ Baltimore

Game 351-352
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.439
Baltimore
138.931
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-2 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ Chicago

Game 353-354
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
126.846
Chicago
125.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+3 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Game 355-356
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
141.105
Atlanta
139.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+3); Over

New England @ Buffalo

Game 357-358
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.266
Buffalo
131.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 8
49
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-8); Under

Denver @ Miami

Game 359-360
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
124.209
Miami
121.052
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1 1/2); Over

Houston @ Tennessee

Game 361-362
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.758
Tennessee
135.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 10
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-6 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 363-364
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
124.501
Jacksonville
136.905
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 12 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 9
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-9); Under

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

Game 365-366
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
131.948
Green Bay
127.342
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-1); Over

Kansas City @ NY Jets

Game 367-368
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
132.342
NY Jets
126.948
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Under

Carolina @ New Orleans

Game 369-370
December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
135.258
New Orleans
143.936
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-4); Over

Cleveland @ LA Chargers

Game 371-372
December 3, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
120.382
LA Chargers
141 201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 21
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 14
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-14); Under

LA Rams @ Arizona

Game 373-374
December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
141.321
Arizona
130.433
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 11
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-7); Over

NY Giants @ Oakland

Game 375-376
December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
120.334
Oakland
133.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 8 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-8 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Seattle

Game 377-378
December 3, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
146.774
Seattle
136.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Under


Monday, December 4

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 379-380
December 4, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.280
Cincinnati
130.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-5); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's game
Redskins (5-6) @ Cowboys (5-6)? Washington is 5-0 when they allow 24 or less points, 0-6 when they allow more. Cowboys are in freefall, losing last three games by combined score of 92-22, 72-6 in 2nd half. Dallas was outsacked 14-1 in last three games, with -7 turnover rate (1-8). Cowboys lost four of last five home games. Redskins lost four of last six games, are 2-3 on road, 3-2 vs spread as road underdog. Dallas (-2) beat Redskins 33-19 in first meeting in Week 8, outrushing Washington 169-49, with +2 turnover ratio. Cowboys won seven of last nine series games, but Redskins won three of last five visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 0-4 in Cowboys? last four. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games.

Sunday's games
Lions (6-5) @ Ravens (6-5)? Ravens are +17 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses. Out of Baltimore?s six wins, five were against either backup QB?s or DeShone Kizer; Dalton is only decent QB they?ve beaten. Ravens are 3-2 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- they won three of last four games, allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last three games. Detroit won three of last four games; they?re 4-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in Superdome when their offense gave up three TD?s. Home side won three of four series games; Lions lost both visits here, 19-10/48-3- their last visit here was in ?09. Over is 6-1 in last seven games for both teams. Lions have edge in rest/prep time; they played last Thursday, Ravens played on Monday. Detroit is 3-0 in outdoor games this season.

49ers (1-10) @ Bears (3-8)? Niners? QB Beathard got hurt LW; this could be Garoppolo?s first start for the 49ers- he won his only two NFL starts LY for the Patriots. Chicago lost its last four games, scoring 13.8 ppg; Bears are 2-4 at home- two of their three wins were in OT, in the third one Chicago?s only two TD?s were scored by the defense. 49ers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five games; they?re 3-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-3-2-23 points. Teams split last six meetings; 49ers lost 26-6 here LY, after winning in OT year before. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-7. Under is 7-4 in Chicago games, 3-1 in 49ers? last three games. This is 49ers? first road game since Oct 29.

Vikings (9-2) @ Falcons (7-4)? Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins. Atlanta won/covered its last three games; they?re 3-2 as home favorites this years, with wins by 11-20-14 points and losses to Bills/Miami. Vikings won their last seven games, covered their last six; they?re 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Minnesota won last two meetings 41-28/20-10, last of which was in 2015; they?re 5-2 in last seven visits to Atlanta. NFC south non-divisional home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Viking games went over total; under is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games. Minnesota had extra prep time, since they played on Thanksgiving Day.

Patriots (9-2) @ Bills (6-5)? New England won its last seven games, covered last five; they?re 4-0 in true road games, 3-1 as road favorite, winning by 16-5-7-24 points. Patriots have started 14 drives in enemy territory this year, their opponents only one. Bills lost three of last four games; they?re +13 in turnovers in their wins, -7 in losses. Return of Taylor at QB righted ship in KC last week. Buffalo won twice in last five series games, after a 1-21 series skid; Patriots won last five visits to Orchard Park, scoring 38.4 ppg in wins by 24-2-15-8-16 points. Home teams are 5-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Five of last six Buffalo games went over total; five of last seven New England games stayed under.

Broncos (3-8) @ Dolphins (4-7)? Denver coach Joseph was Miami?s DC last year. Adam Gase was in Denver for 6 years (2009-14), last two as OC. Denver lost its last seven games (0-7 vs spread); they?re back to Siemian at QB after Lynch got hurt LW. Broncos are 0-5 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 10-21-10-28-7 points. Dolphins lost their last four games (0-3-1 vs spread); Miami is 2-2 at home, 1-1-1 as a home favorite, winning home tilts by 6-3 points, with losses to Bucs/Raiders/ Denver won last two series games, 18-15(ot)/39-36; the OT win in 2011 was Broncos? only win in seven visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Former Bronco Cutler is back at QB for Miami.

Texans (4-7) @ Titans (7-4)? Short week for Texans after loss in Baltimore Monday nite; they pounded Tennessee 57-14 (+2.5) back in Week 4, when rookie QB Watson rang up six TD drives and 445 yards. Houston is 1-4 in Savage starts, scoring 10.6 ppg; they?re 1-4 on road, 3-1-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-26-7 points. Tennessee won five of its last six games, with last four wins all by 4 or less points. Titans are 2-2-1 vs spread as home favorites. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games; they split last four series here. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Titan games went over total, as have seven of last nine Houston games.

Colts (3-8) @ Jaguars (7-4)? Indy lost five of last six games; they?re 2-3 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars had 4-game win streak snapped in Arizona LW; Jags are 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home tilts by 37-16-3 points, with losses to Titans/Rams. Colts (+3) got blanked 27-0 at home by Jaguars in Week 7; Jax ran ball for 188 yards, were +2 in turnovers. Jaguars won three of last four series games, winning 51-16 in last meeting here two years ago. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Four of last five games for both teams stayed under total. In their last seven games, Jaguars outscored opponents 87-30 in second half.

Buccaneers (4-7) @ Packers (5-6)? Winston figures to return to lineup for Bucs team that lost six of last seven games, outscored 96-25 in first half of those games. Tampa Bay lost its last five road games, is 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Packers lost five of last six games, losing last three home tilts. Green Bay had three TD plays of 20+ yards LW; they had three all year before that. Packers are 2-1 as home favorites. Green Bay won last two series games, 35-26/10-3; last meeting was in ?14. Bucs are 1-14 in their last 15 visits to Wisconsin, last of which was in ?11. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 this season; NFC South underdogs are 4-5-1 vs spread, 3-3-1 on road. Over is 3-1 in last four Tampa games; under is 3-1 in last four Green Bay games.

Chiefs (6-5) @ Jets (4-7)? Kansas City lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they?re back in Swamp Stadium for 2nd time in three weeks, after losing in OT to Giants two weeks ago. Chiefs lost last three road games- they?ve scored one TD on 23 drives in two games since their bye. Jets also lost five of last six games; they?re 3-3 at home (4-2 vs spread)- they were underdog in all six home games. KC won 24-10/24-3 in last two series games; they lost last two games against Jets here, with last visit to play Jets in 2011. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-10-1 vs spread, 2-3-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-8-1, 2-3-1 at home. Chiefs? last three games stayed under total. Chiefs scored only 32 points in their last nine red zone drives.

Panthers (8-3) @ Saints (8-3)? Carolina won/covered its last four games, coring 80 points in last two games; Panthers are 3-0 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-27-35 points. Carolina is 3-0 as a road underdog this year. New Orleans had 8-game win streak snapped LW; they?re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 14-8-20-3 points, and loss to Patriots. Saints (+6) waxed Carolina 34-13 in Charlotte in Week 3; they were +3 in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards. Panthers won four of last six series games, are 3-2 in last five visits to Superdome. NFC South divisional home favorites are 3-2 this year; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-12-2 vs spread. Under is 6-3 in last nine New Orleans games.

Browns (0-11) @ Chargers (5-6)? Cleveland is 1-26 the last two years; the one win was 20-17 over the Chargers on Lake Erie last Christmas Eve. Browns are first NFL team since ?76-?77 Bucs to start consecutive seasons 0-11. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back for first time since late 2014 here; he is an explosive threat. Chargers won five of last six games (6-1 vs spread); they?re 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-30 points, and losses to Miami-Chiefs-Eagles. LA had extra prep time after Turkey Day win in Dallas- they?re 16-28 on 3rd down in last two games. Browns won two of last three series games; teams split last six meetings played here. AFC West divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 5-4-1.

Rams (8-3) @ Cardinals (5-6)? Trap game for LA after playing Vikings/Saints last two weeks, with Eagles/Seahawks on deck. Rams won five of last six games; they?re 4-1 on road, with only loss 24-7 at Minnesota. LA is 5-3 vs spread as a favorite this year. Arizona is 3-2 at home, losing by 11-6 points to Dallas/Seattle; they?re 2-1-1 as home underdogs. Rams haven?t swept Cardinals since 2012- they won last two visits here, 24-22/17-13. LA (-3) pounded Arizona 33-0 in London in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 197-25 in game where Palmer got hurt and was 23-0 at half. Road teams are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this year. Under is 7-3 in last ten Cardinal games, 4-1 in Rams? last five games.

Giants (2-9) @ Raiders (5-6)? Giants are starting Smith at QB, ending Manning?s 210-game starting streak, 2nd week in row Oakland faces a backup QB. Smith is 12-18 as an NFL starter; he went 8-8 in ?13, is 4-10 since. Big Blue is 3-2 as a road underdog; they?ve lost road games by 16-3-2-10-10 points. Oakland will be without top two WR?s Cooper (concussion), Crabtree (suspension) here; they also changed DC?s last week. Raiders are 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 25-1-7 points. Giants won last three games, by 9-37-4 points; they won last visit here 30-21 in 2005, their only win in three trips to Oakland. AFC West divisional home faves are 4-7 vs spread; NFC East road dogs are 8-3. Four of last six Giant games stayed under.

Eagles (10-1) @ Seahawks (7-4)? Philly has huge lead in NFC East; they?ve won last nine games, covered last eight- they ran ball for 196 yds/game the last three games. Eagles are 4-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 in Week 2 at KC. Seahawks are just out of playoff picture; they held last four opponents to 89 or less rushing yards, but also lost last two home games. Seattle won its last three series games, by 17-10-11 points; Eagles? last win here was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional faves are 7-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West dogs are 6-10 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Three of last four Philly games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in last seven Seattle games. Eagles have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)- their opponents are 24 of last 97 on 3rd down.

Monday's game
Steelers (9-2) @ Bengals (5-6)? Steelers outrushed Cincy 153-71, were +2 in turnovers in 29-14 (-5.5) Week 7 win; Pitt won last five series games and 8 of last 9- they won last four games here, last two by total of six points. Pittsburgh won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they?re 5-1 on road, allowing 13.5 ppg in last four road games. Bengals are 5-3 in last eight games, covering last three; they won last three home tilts, after losing home games to Ravens/Texans to start season. Cincy is +3 in turnovers in last four games, after being -10 in first seven. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-3 in Steeler games, 2-4 in Bengals? last six games. Three of last four Steeler wins were by five or less points.

2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2

T) 46-50-1 26-29-2 77-80-2 24-13N

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Thursday, November 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Washington at Dallas
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington at Dallas Cowboys (+2, 45.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are a decidedly different team than the one that coasted to a 33-19 win against Washington last month, especially considering Ezekiel Elliott rolled up a season-high 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns in that outing. With Elliott suspended, the Cowboys' overall offense hasn't been as potent and mustered just 22 points during the team's three-game losing skid heading into Thursday's contest versus visiting Washington.

The Cowboys are averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry in Elliott's absence, but that's just noise to Alfred Morris as he prepares to face his former team. "You can say (the running game has been good enough), but it doesn't matter," Morris said. "We?re not winning games. We're not putting points on the board, so it doesn't matter if we, in a sense, are doing our part." Washington reached 30 points in back-to-back losses before tightening their defense in a 20-10 win over the sputtering New York Giants on Thanksgiving. Kirk Cousins (NFL second-best 3,038 yards), who tossed a pair of touchdown passes against the Giants, has thrown for 625 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions in his last two encounters with the Cowboys.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Washington (0) - Dallas (+2.5) + home field (-3) = Dallas -0.5.

LINE HISTORY: Dallas opened as 1.5-point home favorites but on Tuesday afternoon the spread jumped the fence to Washington -1 and continued to move in that direction, now at 2. The total hit betting boards at 44 and has been bumped up to 45.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams played on Thanksgiving last week, so a rare situation where both teams have a full week of rest heading into the Thursday night game. Both teams are 5-6 SU and 5-6 ATS, but Dallas is a home underdog based on recent results as the Cowboys are 0-3 SU/ATS in the past three games since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott. Quite a line adjustment for this game considering Dallas was a 3-point road favorite at Washington just one month ago when they won 33-19. That result put the Redskins on a 0-4 ATS slide, but Washington has since gone 3-1 ATS in their past four games following that loss." - Steve Merril.

WEATHER REPORT: Roof if needed - weather will not be a factor.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Back), LB Zach Brown (Questionable, Shoulder), G Brandon Scherff (Questionable, Knee), T Ty Nsekhe (Probable, Abdominal), T Morgan Moses (Probable, Ankle), DL Anthony Lanier II (Probable, Knee), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Hand), T Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Martrell Spaight (Questionable, Ankle), DL Terrell McClain (Out, Toe), S Montae Nicholson (Out, Concussion), TE Jordan Reed (Out, Hamstring), C Chase Roullier (Out, Hand), C Spencer Long (I-R, Hip Flexor), G Shawn Lauvao (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Thompson (I-R, Leg), WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. (I-R, Ankle), T T.J. Clemmings (I-R, Ankle), LB Will Compton (I-R, Foot), RB Rob Kelley (I-R, Ankle), DL Arthur Jones (I-R, Shoulder), LB Mason Foster (I-R, Shoulder), DL Jonathan Allen (Out, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip), S Su'a Cravens (I-R, Knee), DL Phil Taylor Sr. (I-R, Quadricep), T Kevin Bowen (I-R, Ankle), LB Trent Murphy (I-R, Knee), RB Keith Marshall (I-R, Knee).

Dallas - LB Anthony Hitchens (Probable, Groin), WR Ryan Switzer (Probable, Ankle), DT Maliek Collins (Probable, Foot), T Tyron Smith (Probable, Back), G Zack Martin (Probable, Concussion), T La'el Collins (Questionable, Back), LB Justin Durant (Out, Concussion), LB Sean Lee (Out, Hamstring), RB Ezekiel Elliott (Elig Week 16, Suspension), DE Randy Gregory (Out For Season, Suspension), TE Rico Gathers (Questionable, Concussion), TE Connor Hamlett (Questionable, Calf), DE Charles Tapper (Questionable, Foot), DT Brian Price (I-R, Knee), CB Duke Thomas (I-R, Knee), QB Zac Dysert (I-R, Back).

ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): While coach Jay Gruden was pleased to see left tackle Trent Williams (knee) participate in practice in a bid to end a one-game absence versus Dallas, the coach doesn't have high hopes for the return of tight end Jordan Reed. "Your guess is as good as mine," Gruden said of a potential return date for Reed, who has missed each of the last four games with a hamstring injury. "Obviously there is an issue there, otherwise I would like to think he would be further along now. But we just have to get him healthy." Rookie running back Samaje Perine has looked healthy with 217 rushing yards in his last two contests, and a season-best 130 scrimmage yards (100 rushing, 30 receiving) last week.

ABOUT DALLAS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing game have taken a hit with the threat of Elliott removed from the offense. "It's frustrating, simple as that. But what it does is it makes being on top fun," said Prescott, who tossed five interceptions in his last two games to eclipse his total of four during his rookie season in 2016. "That's what it's all about is getting out of these whatever you call them, ruts, or whatever they are and getting back to our expectations, our standards." Wideout Dez Bryant has struggled to get untracked without Elliott, failing to crack 40 yards receiving in two of the last three games.

TRENDS:

* Washington is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
* Over is 14-3 in Washington's last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.
* Washington is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with Washington on the road at a rate of 64 percent and the Over is getting 73 percent of the totals action

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL double-digit favorites a good bet in the final five weeks of the season
Ashton Grewal

NFL favorites are 45-20-4 against the spread in the last 30 days ? a clip so high that even Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan couldn?t have lost money betting pro football in the last month.

Sportsbook managers aren?t having the best November, as senior writer Patrick Everson detailed, but the chalk won?t walk at a 69 percent clip over the last five weeks of the NFL season. Bettors will have to dig a little deeper to find ways to beat their bookies.

Looking at double-digit spreads is a good place to start. Double-digit favorites went 3-1 ATS last weekend with the New England Patriots putting down the Miami Dolphins by 18 points, the Philadelphia Eagles burying the Chicago Bears by four touchdowns, the Atlanta Falcons tearing up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points and the Pittsburgh Steelers inching past the Green Bay Packers.

This could be a preview of what?s to come until the start of the postseason. We looked back over the last six years and found teams favored by 10 or more points are 38-29-1 ATS from Week 13 to Week 17. Even better, home teams are 41-26-1 ATS in games with double-digit spreads over the same time period.

Just last season, all six home teams in games with 10-point or larger spreads went 6-0 ATS while favorites went 5-1. There?s only one double-digit spread on the board this weekend (Chargers -13.5 vs. Browns) but there should be quite a few in the weeks to follow as teams punt on the season and start taking a look at their backup players to see which are worth holding onto for next season.

Here are some games to keep an eye on for potential double-digit spreads in Weeks 14 - 17:

Week 14

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Pats just covered as 17-point home favorites against the Phins last weekend. Barring an injury to Tom Brady or a brain tumor for Bill Belichick, New England will be large favorites at Miami.

Week 15

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

The Lions won?t be confused for world beaters, but the Bears? offense is so putrid it?s hard not seeing them getting at least 10 points in this divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The Giants are already planning for the future that probably doesn?t include Eli Manning as their starting quarterback. This could be another huge line if Geno Smith is still at QB for the G-Men and the Eagles are still playing for the top overall seed in the NFC.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

Gang Green has been a double-digit underdog just once this season and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the Raiders. That seems like a long, long time ago. Despite the Saints? setback against the Rams, bettors still love backing Drew Brees and the boys from the Bayou.

Week 16

Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles

The Raiders are a mess. Head coach Jack Del Rio is presently prepping index cards with the names of his assistant coaches and assorting them by the likelihood who will be his next scapegoat to save his job.

Week 17

New York Jets at New England Patriots

It?s safe to assume Brady will be playing in Week 17 because he did last season when the Pats had the first seed already sewn up.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Will the Browns still be winless on the last weekend of the season? Would the Steelers put the squeeze on their division rival in a meaningless game for them or would they protect Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le?Veon Bell from injury?

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikes have won a lot of games this season but have been double-digit faves just once ? and that was against? you guessed it? the Browns. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer hates losing preseason games, so it?s safe to assume he wouldn?t take his foot off the gas pedal even if there was nothing to play for in Week 17 for his team.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at DAL 08:25 PM

WAS -1.5

U 47.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Redskins pretty much out of playoffs after loss to Cowboys
December 1, 2017

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) One thing the Washington Redskins almost certainly won't have to worry about this year is a must-win game in the season finale to make the playoffs.

The Redskins pretty much took themselves out of the postseason picture before the calendar even turned to December, which happened soon after their 38-14 loss Thursday night to the Dallas Cowboys still without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott.

''Right now, it looks as if we are not going to make the playoffs,'' tight end Vernon Davis said. ''So I think at this point, we just have to continue to keep competing, keep playing and keep playing for one another. ... You can't give up.''

The Redskins (5-7), who had already been eliminated from NFC East contention, dropped behind Dallas (6-6) in the division standings. The Cowboys also swept the season series, though between those two games, they were overwhelmed in three straight losses without Elliott.

Philadelphia can wrap up the division title with a win in any of its last five games. The Eagles play Sunday night at Seattle.

Alfred Morris, Elliott's replacement during the six-game suspension for alleged domestic violence, had 127 yards rushing and a clinching touchdown against his former team.

''Really has an uncanny knack of seeing the soft spot, and you saw it here tonight,'' Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said.

Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins was consistently harassed behind a patchwork offensive line that had to shuffle some more because of injuries. Cousins was 26 of 37 for 251 yards and two touchdowns, but threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.

Cousins said Washington still thinks it has something to play for.

''It's our job, it's important to us,'' said Cousins, who was sacked four times . ''We'll be professional every day and finish the season strong, put a good taste in our mouth.''

Last season, all the Redskins had to do to make the playoffs was win at home in Week 17 against a playoff-bound Giants team with nothing to play for. The game was tied before New York scored nine points in the final 2:12.

Dak Prescott was getting X-rays on his swollen right hand when rookie Ryan Switzer scored his first career touchdown on an 83-yard punt return that put the Cowboys up 17-0. The extra time with the Dallas offense on the sideline kept Prescott from missing any plays.

Prescott, hit just as he made an option pitch, threw two TD passes. The first was to tight end Jason Witten, the team's career receiving leader, and the second was a leaping 13-yard grab by Dez Bryant, whose 72nd career TD catch broke a tie with Hall of Famer Bob Hayes for the most in franchise history.

And Prescott didn't have a turnover after throwing five interceptions and losing three fumbles without a touchdown pass during the three-game losing streak. He said the X-rays were negative.

''It was tough,'' Prescott said. ''It was great to get a win.''

And keep the Cowboys' dwindling playoff hopes alive.

SHUTDOWN TIME?

Even with the playoffs just about out of reach, Redskins left tackle Trent Williams isn't sure he wants to shut it down for the season after being active for the third time in six games with a knee injury that will require surgery. The five-time Pro Bowler left briefly in the third quarter but returned.

''I feel like there's some merits to sticking and trying to finish the season,'' Williams said. ''I fought through it this long. Hopefully I can get another four games out of it.''

The Redskins had to do more shuffling to their decimated front when right tackle Morgan Moses was carted off with a sprained ankle. Ty Nsekhe had moved to left guard to start the game but had to go back to tackle, where he's been a backup. Who knows what the line will look like the rest of what appears to be a lost season.

''We're not the only one dealing with it,'' Williams said. ''We may have the most. But a lot of teams lose pivotal players during the season.''

QUALITY YARDS

The Cowboys had fewer than 300 yards total offense for the fourth straight game, the longest such streak since the final four games of former coach Dave Campo's tenure in 2002. But it didn't matter this time because they were efficient. Prescott had two touchdowns despite throwing for just 102 yards. And Morris had his first 100-yard showing since final game with the Redskins in 2015, against the Cowboys. ''I thought Dak did a really good job of making timely throws,'' coach Jason Garrett said.

CROWDER MISCUES

Jamison Crowder's fumble on the punt return was his sixth fumble of the season and third lost fumble. Coach Jay Gruden has hinted several times at replacing Crowder on punt returns because of the fumbles, but the other option is Maurice Harris, who left the game to be evaluated for a concussion. ''We don't have anyone else to return a punt.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Pick Six - Week 13
November 30, 2017

Week 12 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 35-37 SU, 31-38-1 ATS

Lions at Ravens (-3, 43) ? 1:00 PM EST

Detroit
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 8-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Lions had their three-game winning streak come to a halt in a 30-23 Thanksgiving home loss to the Vikings. Detroit had an opportunity to pull off the season sweep of Minnesota and creep within one game of the Vikings for first place in the NFC North, but the Lions couldn?t overcome an early 20-3 deficit. The Lions have cashed the OVER in six of the past seven games, including three straight away from Ford Field. Detroit has performed well on the highway by winning four of five on the road, while eclipsing the 24-point mark four times.

Baltimore
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Ravens aren?t going away in the AFC Wild Card race after holding off the Texans last Monday, 23-16. Baltimore?s offense isn?t impressing anyone (23 points or less four of the past five games), but the Ravens have allowed one touchdown or less in three of the previous four contests. The last time the Ravens and Lions hooked up at Ford Field in 2013, kicker Justin Tucker booted six field goals as Baltimore edged Detroit, 18-16, including the 61-yard game-winner in the final minute.

Best Bet: Lions +3

Vikings at Falcons (-3, 47) ? 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Vikings are continuing their push towards the top of the NFC after pulling out their seventh consecutive victory on Thanksgiving at Detroit. Minnesota has covered in each of the past six wins, including five straight as a favorite, as the Vikings own a 1-1 SU/ATS record in the underdog role this season. Not only the defense been great for Minnesota this season, but the offense continues to churn out points by posting at least 30 points in three of the past four games, all away from U.S. Bank Stadium.

Atlanta
Record: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Falcons have gone through many ups and downs this season, starting 3-0, dropping four of five, but are trending up of late by winning three straight games. Atlanta?s offense, which disappeared during its losing stretch, has come back to life by posting 27, 34, and 34 points the last three weeks. The Falcons pulled away from the Buccaneers late last Sunday, 34-20 to cash as 10 ?-point favorites, while improving to 6-1 against NFC opponents.

Best Bet: Falcons -3

Texans at Titans (-6 ?, 43) ? 1:00 PM EST

Houston
Record: 4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

Houston?s season fell apart when Deshaun Watson suffered a torn ACL in practice in early November. The Texans have lost three of four since a 41-38 setback at Seattle when Watson threw for 402 yards and four touchdowns. Houston has dropped four consecutive road games since beating Cincinnati in Week 2, but the Texans improved to 4-1 ATS on the highway following last Monday?s 23-16 defeat as 7 ?-point underdogs. The Texans destroyed the Titans in their first meeting, 57-14 as 2 ?-point underdogs in Week 4, the sixth win in the last seven meetings by Houston.

Tennessee
Record: 7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, 7-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Titans are back in a first place tie atop the AFC South with the Jaguars after Tennessee rallied past Indianapolis, 20-16 last Sunday to cash as three-point road favorites. Tennessee has won five of its previous six games, although the Titans have covered only twice in this span. The Titans have had several close shaves during this recent run with margin of victories coming by 3, 3, 4, and 4. Since finished UNDER the total in Week 1 against Oakland, the Titans are 4-0 to the OVER in their past four games at Nissan Stadium.

Best Bet: Texans +6 ?

Patriots (-8 ?, 48 ?) at Bills ? 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

The Patriots? train kept rolling in a 35-17 blowout of the Dolphins last Sunday to barely cash as 17-point home favorites. New England extended its winning streak to seven games, while covering six times in this span. This division rivalry has been owned by New England over the years as the Patriots have compiled an impressive 17-3 SU and 11-7-2 ATS record against the Bills since 2007. The Patriots have won in their last five visits to Buffalo, while scoring at least 37 points in four of those victories.

Buffalo
Record: 6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Bills rebounded from a 30-point setback to the Chargers by knocking off the Chiefs last Sunday as 8 ?-point road underdogs, 16-10. For this time since Week 1, Buffalo outgained its opponent from a yardage standpoint, while putting an end to a five-game OVER streak and three-game losing skid. The Bills began the season with four consecutive home wins before getting routed by the Saints in Week 10 by 37 points.

Best Bet: Patriots -8 ?

Panthers at Saints (-4 ?, 48) ? 4:25 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Panthers rebounded from an ugly loss at Chicago in mid-October to run off four straight victories to pull into a first place tie with the Saints atop the NFC South. Carolina held off the Jets last Sunday, 35-27 to cash as 5 ?-point favorites, while finishing off a 4-0 sweep of the AFC East. A low scoring game through three quarters blew up in the final 15 minutes as the teams combined for 27 points, including a pair of non-offensive touchdowns for Carolina. The Panthers own a dreadful 0-5 ATS record in the past five meetings with the Saints, including a 34-13 home blowout to New Orleans as five-point favorites in Week 3.

New Orleans
Record: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Saints had their eight-game winning streak end against the Rams last Sunday in a 26-20 defeat as 2 ?-point underdogs. Rookie running back Alvin Kamara produced both touchdowns for New Orleans to go along with 188 all-purpose yards, but dropped its first game away from the Superdome since Week 1 at Minnesota. New Orleans covered in its first seven contests of the season before failing to cash in an overtime victory against Washington in Week 11. Each of the past two meetings at the Superdome have been decided by exact 41-38 scores as New Orleans won last season and Carolina was victorious in 2015.

Best Bet: Carolina +4 ?

Rams (-7, 45) at Cardinals ? 4:25 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Rams rebounded following a 17-point defeat at Minnesota in Week 11 as Los Angeles held off New Orleans, 26-20 to win its fifth game in its past six tries. L.A. seeks the season sweep of Arizona after blanking the Cardinals in London, 33-0 in Week 7 to easily cover as three-point favorites. Running back Todd Gurley rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown, while the Rams held the ball for 39 minutes. The Rams have won four of five games away from the Coliseum this season, while scoring at least 35 points in three of those victories.

Arizona
Record: 5-6 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, 7-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Cardinals snapped a two-game skid in a 27-24 home underdog victory over the Jaguars last Sunday. Arizona has yet to win consecutive games this season, while compiling an 0-3-1 ATS record off a victory. The Cardinals are 2-1-1 ATS as a home underdog, but have lost each of their last two meetings at home with the Rams by a combined six points. Three of Arizona?s five wins are by three points apiece, while the Cardinals have not covered in a loss this season and are 0-18 ATS in their last 18 losses.

Best Bet: Rams -7

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL notebook: Kaepernick wins Ali Legacy Award
November 30, 2017

Football player Colin Kaepernick was announced Thursday as the 2017 recipient of the Sports Illustrated Muhammad Ali Legacy Award.

The Legacy Award is given to sports figures who use their platform to initiate change.

Kaepernick hasn't been affiliated with an NFL team this season, likely related to his stance of kneeling for the national anthem for much of the 2016 season. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has insisted on several occasions that the 30-year-old Kaepernick isn't being blackballed.

Regardless, Kaepernick's protest to draw attention to police brutality and social justice issues created change, and protests during the anthem picked up this season after players were criticized by President Donald Trump. Kaepernick also has donated upwards of $1 million to charities.

"The Muhammad Ali Legacy Award is given to those who make the world a better place," Sports Illustrated executive editor Steve Cannella told USA TODAY Sports. "The fact Colin hasn't played this year or been on the field doesn't disqualify him.

"That fact that he hasn't played in a game actually shows what he has sacrificed for standing up for what he believes. There will never be another Muhammad Ali, but you can see the echoes of (Ali) in what Colin has done over the last 12 to 15 months."

--Cleveland Browns safety Jabrill Peppers was fined $24,000 by the NFL for an illegal hit on Cincinnati Bengals receiver Josh Malone.

The play occurred last Sunday, and Peppers was assessed a personal foul for the hit that prevented Malone from making a catch.

Peppers said he will appeal the fine, and doesn't understand what he did wrong.

--The Oakland Raiders may be without their top two wide receivers for Sunday's game against the visiting New York Giants.

Amari Cooper remained off the field while media members were allowed to watch Thursday's practice. The 23-year-old currently is in the league's concussion protocol and also is battling an ankle issue.

Cooper departed Sunday's game after taking a shot to the head from Broncos safety Darian Stewart. Definitely out is Michael Crabtree, who is set to serve a one-game suspension for last Sunday's fight with Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib.

--Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward left the team to be with his family after his brother, Jecaives, was killed in a car accident.

Jecaives Hayward was killed Monday night in Macon, Ga., when he was ejected from a car in which he was a passenger. Casey Hayward's availability for the Chargers (5-6) in Sunday's game against the Cleveland Browns (0-11) is uncertain.

Hayward, who was named the AFC's Defensive Player of the Month on Thursday, has 30 tackles and four interceptions in 11 games this season.

--Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is confident he will not be punished by the NFL after its investigation into an allegation that he groped a female Uber driver in March 2016.

"I have no fear at all, but I have to respect their process," Winston said. "I'm just going to respect the process, most importantly. That's all I can do."

Winston denied the allegations after they surfaced in a BuzzFeed report. The Uber driver told BuzzFeed that she picked up Winston in Scottsdale, Ariz., around 2 a.m. local time on March 13, 2016. The driver alleged Winston "behaved poorly" as soon as he got in the car, and then asked her to stop at a drive-thru restaurant during the ride.

While in line, the driver said Winston reached over and "grabbed" her crotch for three to five seconds.

--Quarterback Case Keenum led the Minnesota Vikings to three straight wins in November en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month, the NFL announced.

The honor is the first for Keenum, who had eight touchdowns (seven passing, one rushing) in that stretch as the Vikings (9-2) strengthened their hold on first place in the NFC North. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month after throwing for 833 yards with 10 touchdowns en route to leading his team to win all three of its games.

Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward had three interceptions to be named AFC Defensive Player of the Month, and New Orleans Saints defensive end Cam Jordan received the NFC honor after collecting three sacks. Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker made all six field-goal attempts and eight extra-point tries to win AFC Special Teams Player of the Month honors, and Los Angeles Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein went 12 of 12 on field goals and 11 of 12 on PATs to win the NFC honor.

 

[Cnotes53]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 13
December 1, 2017

A disturbing trend has been apparent through the last few weeks of NFL betting, and that?s that the favorites have been ruling the house. The problem comes in believing that the football season will just play out the way it?s supposed to.

We just turned the corner in to December where all hell usually breaks loose. Eventually this season has to go back to being what it was initially ? absolutely bonkers and unpredictable. That starts in Week 13 with these five underdog plays.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 over Denver Broncos
Think I?m crazy? Well I?m not alone. Nearly two-thirds of the betting public believes that Miami is a better bet than the Denver Broncos. Miami has been shellacked by bad teams, but none of them come worse than Denver right now. And there?s a weird thing with Miami late in the season. Teams aren?t used to the heat in South Beach and play like it, so an opponent descending from the frigid Rocky Mountains is going to have problems.

Denver is also a known problem for bettors in December. They?re just 1-4 ATS when playing late in the year, and 0-7 ATS when playing on the road and 0-4 ATS when playing losing teams. Nothing suggests a play on Denver aside from the presence of Von Miller. Also, this is a Jay Cutler revenge game!

San Francisco 49ers +3.0 over Chicago Bears
I?m betting on Jimmy and against Mitch. That?s the beginning and end of this entire game. The Niners are a totally fine football team as they?re built, and Chicago has been a frustrating wasteland. The one thing propping up a Bears play is that they?re 4-1 ATS at Soldier Field, but that?s not enough to invigorate a wager on the considering that they?re 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the last month of football.

Minnesota Vikings +3.0 over Atlanta Falcons
There?s no way you should be backing off the Vikings after a 7-0 SU winning streak that?s produced a 6-1 ATS record. None. They handled the Lions, Rams and Redskins to become one of the best teams in the NFC without debate. Atlanta is a fine team who are riding high after dismantling the putrid Bucs, but they?re being oversold for their win against a Seattle team that is barely standing on two feet due to injuries. There?s no possible way you should trust Atlanta against top flight competition.

Detroit Lions +3.0 over Baltimore Ravens
Strange invitation here by the oddsmakers to bet against Joe Flacco. Are we really supposed to believe that Baltimore is riding a hot streak against a disheveled Green Bay roster and a Houston team that couldn?t step out of the house without tripping on the doormat in Weeks 11 and 12? C?mon, guys.

There is no chance that you should believe in Baltimore. They?re a totally even 6-5 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the year. They are traditionally a strong home play, and are one of the best on their own grounds in the league historically. But living in the now, there?s no doubt that Detroit is a much better pick here.

For their part, the Lions are a cool 3-1-1 ATS when travelling and you can?t blame them for losing to Minnesota by just seven points. The most difficult part about the Lions is that the oddsmakers seem to have them dead to rights. They?re just 3-3 ATS when standing as the dog. But I?ll take Matt Stafford over Joe Flacco every day of the week?especially on Sunday. The Ravens have taken advantage of inept opponents over their last two games. Detroit is capable and deserving of your backing.

Carolina Panthers +4.5 over New Orleans Saints
As it turns out the other three afternoon games in Week 13 are expected to be complete blowouts. That?s what happens when you have the Chargers hosting Cleveland, the Rams visiting Arizona and Geno Smith starting a game for the Giants. But this game is a toss up and the line unfairly suggests otherwise.

The natural sentiment when betting on the Saints is to lean on them when they play at home. They?re 3-2 ATS when hosting, which is fine. But Carolina is 5-1 ATS on the road this year and in my mind that offsets the value of the Saints under their own roof.

Where the Panthers are getting hit hard is their schedule where they?ve manhandled the Dolphins and Jets in the last two games while also beating up on Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The most important thing to remember here is that Carolina is one-hundred percent comfortable in a dogfight. And their ability to limit big plays is a big factor here. They have the type of running game that has frustrated New Orleans this season. Physical rushing attacks have somewhat befuddled the Saints and we saw this the first time they played when Carolina destroyed the Drew Brees 34-13.

Not many teams play the brand of football that Carolina is able to thrive in. They love ugly. New Orleans was tested mightily by Todd Gurley and the conservative Rams offence, and they failed to produce a win or a cover. If we?re working off what we know in this season, then the Panthers are the perfect foil for a Saints team that has taken advantage of a relatively beatable schedule.

My recommendation would be to play this game after you?ve seen what you?ve accomplished in the early games. Reaping mad profits? Then go bananas. Looking to play catch-up? Then take the other afternoon games. If a splash is what you need to recover, then this is that game. This line has already moved a whole point. Take advantage of the public?s hatred of Cam Newton here. This is a game that the Saints are not designed to win.