Cnotes53 College Basketball Best Bets/Trends/ News Thru The Madness !

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 27

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W KENTUCKY (27 - 10) vs. UTAH (22 - 11) - 3/27/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 61-33 ATS (+24.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 52-26 ATS (+23.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
W KENTUCKY is 61-33 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
W KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSISSIPPI ST (25 - 11) vs. PENN ST (24 - 13) - 3/27/2018, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 27

Tuesday?s NIT games (New York City)
Western Kentucky/Utah are both long way from home; Hilltoppers won games at Oklahoma State/USC last week to get here- they?re #155 experience team that plays pace #143 and is 10-5 outside C-USA. WKU won 11 of its last 14 games; they won by 4 at USC (playing without Metu) in only Pac-12 game this season. Utah is 11-3 outside Pac-12; they won in OT at St Mary?s in last game to get here. Utes won nine of last 11 games; they?re #33 experience team that plays pace #299. Utah gets 37.8% of its points behind arc; WKU opponents shot 36.1% behind arc to this point (#237).

Penn State figures to have large crowd edge playing in NYC; Nittany Lions won five of last six games, winning last two games at Notre Dame/Marquette to get here. Penn St is making third trip to NYC this season- they lost 98-87 to Texas A&M in Brooklyn in only SEC game this year, won two of three in Big 14 tourney on this floor earlier this month. Lions are #244 experience team that plays pace #211. Mississippi State won games at Baylor/Louisville to get here; they?re #325 experience team that plays pace #214. Bulldogs beat Nebraska at home by 7 in only Big 14 game this season.




NCAAB

Tuesday, March 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ UTAH
Western Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

MISSISSIPPI STATE @ PENN STATE
Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 27


Western Kentucky @ Utah

Game 777-778
March 27, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
67.869
Utah
68.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 2
142
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+2); Under

Mississippi State @ Penn State

Game 779-780
March 27, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi State
71.096
Penn State
69.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi State
by 1 1/2
129
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 3
137
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi State
(+3); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
Monty Andrews

You won't find many weaknesses on the Villanova Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-5, 128.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Wolverines' elite ball security

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were staring at insurmountable odds to reach the Final Four heading into the NCAA Tournament - and yet, here they are, just two wins away from the most improbable collegiate title in history. But the Ramblers still have work to do as they take on the favored Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night in San Antonio. Loyola-Chicago will need to do plenty right to advance to Monday's title game - starting with taking extra-good care of the basketball.

Hot shooting and timely defense has been the trademark of the Ramblers' run to the Final Four in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in more than three decades - but those proficiencies have also masked significant struggles when it comes to turnovers. Loyola-Chicago upended Kansas State 78-62 in Elite Eight action despite losing the turnover battle 15-6 - an extension of its regular-season woes, when it finished outside the top 250 nationally in percentage of possessions leading to a TO (17.3).

It isn't enough that the Wolverines boast one of the top scoring defenses in the nation (63.1 points per game against, eighth-fewest in the country). Michigan also takes care of the ball as well as any team in Division I. The Wolverines commit an average of 9.2 turnovers per contest; only Virginia (8.5) has been better. Michigan will be content to play a plodding, slow-paced game and take advantage of the Ramblers' turnovers - and given past history, there could be a lot of them.

Ramblers' dynamic discipline vs. Wolverines' free-throw aversion

Loyola-Chicago is one of only four No. 11 seeds to reach the Final Four - and the South Region champions don't intend to stop there. But oddsmakers aren't so sure the tournament Cinderella has much magic left in it; Bet365 has the Ramblers installed as a +900 longshot to win the championship. That said, all four teams have played well enough to win the title - including Loyola-Chicago, which can prevail against the imposing Wolverines if it continues to be one of the country's most disciplined teams.

It's hard enough to boast a top-five scoring defense as the Ramblers do (62.4 ppg against) - but to do so without sending opponents to the free-throw line is truly impressive. Loyola-Chicago is one of only three NCAA teams to limit opponents to fewer than 10 made free throws per game, and its 13.9 attempts surrendered per game are sixth-fewest in the country. And that stinginess has extended to the NCAA Tournament, with the Ramblers allowing an average of 11.3 free-throw attempts in their first four games.

That number probably won't climb much - if at all - against a Wolverines team that was positively dreadful at getting to the foul line during the season, averaging just 11.5 makes (312th overall) on 17.4 attempts (271st). And even if Michigan can find a way to draw fouls against the Ramblers, there's no guarantee it will capitalize; the Wolverines have shot an abysmal 66.2 percent from the free-throw line so far this season, good for 321st overall. If this one comes down to free throws, Loyola-Chicago has the edge.

Villanova Wildcats (1) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (1) (+5, 155.5)

Villanova's free-throw bonanza vs. Jayhawks' foul-shot foibles

While the left side of the NCAA Tournament bracket was full of stunning upsets and unpredictable finishes, the right side played out exactly as the bracketeers imagined - with the top seeds prevailing in the East and Midwest Regions, respectively, to set up a 1-vs.-1 Final Four matchup Saturday in San Antonio. But oddsmakers consider the Villanova Wildcats more worthy of a No. 1 seed, making them a comfortable fave vs. the Kansas Jayhawks thanks in some part to a considerable edge at the free-throw line.

You won't find many weaknesses on the Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game while ranking sixth in field-goal percentage (49.9) and 19th in 3-point success rate (40 percent). The Wildcats are also as automatic as they come when it comes to free throws, converting at a 78-percent clip through 38 games - good for eighth in the country. If Kansas puts Villanova on the line, the result could be devastating.

The same most certainly cannot be said for the Jayhawks, who have been a below-average free-throw-shooting team for most of the season (70.5 percent, 215th overall) - and it nearly derailed their national title hopes twice, as they shot just 69.2 percent in a four-point win over Seton Hall and 63.6 percent in a four-point triumph over Clemson. They can ill afford a similar showing Saturday against a Villanova team that has proven to be one of the top-shooting teams in the nation.

Wildcats' mediocre assist prevention vs. Jayhawks' sensational ball distribution

Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are the oddsmakers' choice to claim the national championship, installed at -105 on Bet365; Michigan is next at +260, while the Jayhawks sit third at +350 despite being the top seed in the Midwest Region. But while Villanova is far and away the top remaining team in the tournament, it's not perfect - and if the Jayhawks can take advantage of the edge they have in the ball distribution department, they might be in line for the upset.

It might seem like nit-picking, but the Wildcats have not been great at defending opposing passers. Villanova surrenders 13.6 assists per game - ranking 189th overall - and surrenders an assist on 53.1 percent of opposing shots made, placing it outside the top 200 in that category. And good passing was the key to beating the Wildcats during the regular season; Villanova surrendered an average of 16.5 assists while allowing a helper on 56.4 percent of opponents' made shots in their four losses.

If Jayhawks bettors are looking for reason for optimism, this is the place to start. The Jayhawks average a whopping 16.9 assists per contest, the 13th-best mark in the country. And while their 0.564 assists per made field goal ranks just 77th overall, they're a top-20 team in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.43). And that sensational ball movement is heating up as the tournament goes on, with Kansas recording 52 assists over its past three games. Look for the Jayhawks to spread the ball around at will Saturday night.

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, MARCH 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WKU at UTAH 07:00 PM
WKU -2.0
O 139.5

PSU at MSST 09:30 PM
MSST +2.5
O 135.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Utah slips by WKU to reach NIT final
March 27, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) With a poised performance at the free throw line, Justin Bibbins sent Utah to the championship game of the National Invitation Tournament for the first time in 44 years.

Bibbins made all 12 of his foul shots and scored 19 points as the Utes beat Western Kentucky 69-64 on Tuesday night in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden.

''I went to the basics and knocked them down,'' Bibbins said.

Sedrick Barefield added 14 points for the second-seeded Utes (23-11), who advanced to the title game for the third time - and first since losing to Purdue in 1974.

They will play Thursday night against No. 4 seed Penn State, a 75-60 winner over Mississippi State.

''We thought the whole time we could win this thing and bring back the trophy,'' said David Collette, who had 13 points and seven rebounds. ''We're there.''

Tyler Rawson scored 12, including a 3-pointer that put Utah ahead to stay with 38.1 seconds left.

Bibbins led the way despite shooting just 3 for 8 from the field.

''I was happy to go to the line,'' he said. ''Once I got into the flow and made four in a row, I tried to get there more because my shot wasn't falling from the outside.''

Justin Johnson had 24 points for the fourth-seeded Hilltoppers (27-11). Lamonte Bearden added 12 and Dwight Coleby scored 10.

''It's a fine line, winning and losing,'' coach Rick Stansbury said. ''Give them credit (for) making the plays.''

The game went back and forth throughout and wasn't decided until the final seconds. Utah took a 66-64 lead when Rawson hit a 3 from the right side to snap an 0-for-7 shooting slump for the Utes, who went 8:23 without a field goal.

''Ty was wide open,'' Bibbins said. ''I was happy he knocked it down.''

On the ensuing possession, Bibbins drew a charge against Bearden and knocked down two free throws. Johnson missed a straightaway 3 at the other end, and Barefield's free throw with five seconds to go made it 69-64.

''I don't think there's a college team - I may be wrong - that shoots more free throws in practice,'' Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak said. ''We've got some guys that really shoot a high percentage of free throws.''

Johnson's spinning layup with 1:27 remaining put the Hilltoppers ahead 64-63.

The teams went into halftime tied at 32 after Bearden's buzzer-beating jam, and the score was tied 51-all after the third quarter.

BIG PICTURE

Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers went 7 of 24 from 3-point range, ending an NIT run that included wins over three teams from power conferences: Boston College, top seed Southern California, and Oklahoma State. ''Sometimes when you shoot a lot of 3s and make some, it can be fool's gold a little bit. That's not our strength,'' Stansbury said. ''We shot some 3s early, made some, got some separation, and probably fell in love with it a bit too much early and shot too many. That's not who we are.''

Utah: The Utes missed seven of their nine shots from the field in the fourth quarter but advanced because they hit 12 of 14 free throws in the period. ... It was the first meeting between the schools and Utah's first game against a Conference USA opponent since losing 69-60 to Tulsa in the 2008 CBI quarterfinals.

SOMETHING DIFFERENT

Instead of college basketball's traditional format of two-20 minute halves, the postseason NIT has been played with four 10-minute quarters. The tournament also implemented the FIBA 3-point line (22 feet, 1.75 inches), NBA-width lane of 16 inches, and a 20-second shot clock following offensive rebounds.

UP NEXT

Western Kentucky: Looking ahead to next season.

Utah: A chance to win the NIT for the second time. The school's only title came in 1947 with a 49-45 victory over Kentucky.

 

[Cnotes53]

Penn State routs Mississippi State 75-60 to reach NIT final
March 27, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) Tony Carr scored 21 points, Shep Garner added 18 while breaking a school record for career 3-pointers and Penn State routed Mississippi State 75-60 in the National Invitation Tournament semifinals Tuesday night.

The fourth-seeded Nittany Lions (25-13) will play No. 2 seed Utah for the championship Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.

After the score was tied 9-all, Penn State ended the first quarter on a 9-2 run. From there, the Nittany Lions opened the second with a 19-0 spurt capped by Garner's 3 off an assist from Carr to make it 37-11.

Penn State was up 42-23 at halftime and led by as many as 27.

Mississippi State (25-12) wasn't able to get within 20 until there was 7:56 left in the game. Abdul Ado's dunk made it 65-47, but that was the closest the fourth-seeded Bulldogs got before the waning moments.

Mississippi State was led by Tyson Carter's 19 points off the bench. Ado had 13 points and seven rebounds.

Lamar Stevens scored 17 points for Penn State. Carr had six assists and five rebounds.

BIG PICTURE

Penn State: While the Nittany Lions would have preferred to play in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011, they made the NIT for the first time under seventh-year coach Pat Chambers. Penn State is back in the NIT title game for the first time since 2009, which it beat Baylor for the crown. The school's only other appearance in the final was a loss to Minnesota in 1998.

Mississippi State: With just one senior on the roster, the Bulldogs will return most of their team and have something positive to build off as they try to move up the rankings in the rugged SEC next season.

UP NEXT

Penn State: Will try to win the second NIT championship in school history. Utah (23-11) beat Western Kentucky 69-64 in the first semifinal.

Mississippi State: Starts preparing for a promising 2018-19 season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack

Odds on teams to make the playoffs this season:

Washington Nationals: Yes -$700, No +$500

Toronto Blue Jays: Yes +$250, No -$310

Texas Rangers: Yes +$500, No -$700

Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +$800, No -$1,400

St Louis Cardinals: Yes even, No -$120

Seattle Mariners: Yes +$200, No -$250

Quote of the Day
?Whenever you don?t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.?
Former New Jersey Giants GM George Young

Wednesday?s quiz
What was the last college basketball team to repeat as national champs?

Tuesday?s quiz
Loyola is the only college in Illinois that has won the college basketball national championship.

Monday?s quiz
Klay Thompson played his college basketball at Washington State.

********************

Wednesday?s List of 13; Mid-week musings??

13) I love numbers, but the analytics revolution in baseball is overdone. There is no way you can quantify a player?s value to the team with a single number? too many variables are involved that cannot be and never will be able to be measured. Here is one example that actually happened:

Two years ago, Player A and Player B were teammates; Player A was getting paid to wear a certain make of spikes, but he wasn?t wearing them. One day, while Player A was talking to the sales rep from the company that was paying him, Player B comes over and tells the sales rep that Player A isn?t wearing his company?s spikes. A fight ensues in the clubhouse.

Player B gets his ass kicked and goes on the DL; Player A gets suspended and the team suffers, since they weren?t very good to begin with and they were now without two decent hitters.

So, analytics people, quantify that for me; make that a part of WAR, when a guy is such a cruddy teammate that his teammate is provoked into kicking his butt!?!? These players live/travel together from March-September. Being a good teammate is an underrated variable.

12) March 22, 2014, the Astros released JD Martinez, just let him walk. He?s hit 128 HR?s in the four years since, and now makes $22M a year in Boston. Astros are now World Champs, despite giving away a player of Martinez? ability- they?ve won 271 games the last three years. Go figure.

11) Pitt Panthers named Duke assistant Jeff Capel their new head basketball coach; he was previously head coach at VCU, Oklahoma before spending seven years as a Duke assistant. Capel was 79-41 as VCU?s coach (50-22 in conference), 83-69 at Oklahoma (33-43 in conference).

10) Detroit Lions team president Rod Wood said a main reason Detroit didn?t win its bid to host the NFL Draft this year was a date conflict at Ford Field with a robotics convention. Oy.

Detroit also has to start the 2018 season on the road because Ford Field is booked for a concert on September 9? Ed Sheeran, whose concert tour is messing with the first half of the NFL schedule in several cities.

9) When basketball Hall of Famer Bill Walton was in high school/college, he once went 5.5 years without losing a game. His HS team won its last 16 games his junior year and he didn?t lose again until the second half of his senior year at UCLA.

8) Las Vegas Golden Knights were 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup when their first NHL season started back in October. Now they?re 7-1 to win the Cup. Best expansion season ever in any of the four major sports.

St Louis Blues made the Stanley Cup finals in 1968, but that was when the league expanded from 6 to 12 teams and the six new teams were all in the West, so one of them had to make the finals.

7) Interesting quirk to this year?s baseball schedule; A?s visit San Francisco the last three games before the All-Star break, then the Giants visit Oakland the first three games after the break.

6) Louisville paid a search firm $150,000 to find its new athletic director- they wound up hiring the guy who was the interim AD. So they gave a search firm $150K to hire the guy who was already in the job. Something is amiss??.

5) Speaking of the Cardinals, Louisville hired Xavier coach Chris Mack as its new basketball coach, which is a kick in the teeth to the Big East. Mack is a Xavier alum who was a 2-year captain of the Musketeers, but as the saying goes, ?Whenever you don?t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.?

Mack was making just under $1.7M a year at Xavier; he?s making $4M now. His wife is from Louisville, but the $4M was the deal-maker, for sure.

4) Does New Jersey Giants coach Pat Shurmur have special insight into college players in this year?s draft? His son Kyle is Vanderbilt?s quarterback, who played against NC State LB Bradley Chubb in the 2016 independence Bowl. Giants may very well draft Chubb next month.

3) Butler/Florida will play a home/home basketball series the next two years; the series was negotiated by the two head coaches??on Twitter. Welcome to 2018.

2) ESPN had a mike on Mookie Betts while he was playing right field for the Red Sox Tuesday; as a ball was hit over his head into the corner, he says, ?I ain?t getting this one, boys.? They were talking to him in between pitches while the game was going on. Good TV, but one more example of how spring training might be a little too long.

1) Former major league catcher Paul Loduca was on TVG as a horse race handicapper; he likes gambling. Here are his over/under team win total picks for 2018:
Twins, over 83.5 wins
Red Sox, over 91.5 wins
Rockies, over 81.5 wins
Cardinals, under 86 wins

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 28


Illinois-Chicago @ Liberty

Game 723-724
March 28, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois-Chicago
53.483
Liberty
54.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 1
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 6 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois-Chicago
(+6 1/2); Under

Sam Houston St @ Northern Colorado

Game 725-726
March 28, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sam Houston St
53.683
Northern Colorado
58.783
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Colorado
by 5
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Colorado
by 10 1/2
149
Dunkel Pick:
Sam Houston St
(+10 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ North Texas

Game 517-518
March 28, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
55.056
North Texas
61.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Texas
by 6 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 3
141
Dunkel Pick:
North Texas
(-3); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 28

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SAN FRANCISCO (22 - 15) at N TEXAS (18 - 18) - 3/28/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IL-CHICAGO (19 - 15) at LIBERTY (22 - 14) - 3/28/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IL-CHICAGO is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAM HOUSTON ST (21 - 14) at N COLORADO (24 - 12) - 3/28/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games this season.
N COLORADO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N COLORADO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
N COLORADO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N COLORADO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N COLORADO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N COLORADO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
N COLORADO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 28

Game 2, best-of-3 series (USF leads, 1-0)
San Francisco made 14-33 on arc in 72-62 home win over North Texas Monday; Dons won 8 of last 10 games- they won last four games overall, by 4-5-3-10 points. USF played four starters 35:00+ Monday; they?re #264 experience team that plays pace #234. UNT lost 8 of its last 12 games; they played three starters 36:00+ in game they trailed 46-30 at halftime. Mean Green is #287 experience team that plays pace #201- they?re 8-7 outside C-USA. North Texas lost its last seven games that they scored less than 80 points in- they won three of last four at home. USF lost four of its last six road games; this is their first true road game since Feb 10. Gonzaga (2), Long Beach State are only teams to score 80+ vs USF this season.

Ill-Chicago and Liberty are both the Flames. UIC is 11-4 in its last 15 games, winning last seven true road games; they?re 5-8 outside Horizon League, 2-12 vs teams ranked in top 200, beating Oakland/Austin Peay. UIC is #286 experience team that plays pace #21- they turn ball over 20.8% of time. Liberty lost Big South title game at buzzer, their only loss in last six games; they won five of last six home games. Liberty is 9-4 outside Big South; they?re #306 experience team that plays slow pace (#343). Liberty is 8-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200.

Sam Houston State won three of its last four games overall, three of last five on road; they?re #20 experience team that plays pace ##242. Bearkats are 5-7 vs D-I teams outside Southland Conference- they also had four wins vs non-D-I teams. State isn?t a good offensive team (#290 eFG%); they shoot 47% inside arc, 33.5% outside arc- they lost by 9 at Idaho in only Big Sky game this season. Northern Colorado won eight of its last ten games overall, four in row on road. Bears are 8-4 outside Big Sky, winning last game at San Diego- they?re #129 experience team that plays pace #33.




NCAAB

Wednesday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UIC @ LIBERTY
UIC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
UIC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

SAN FRANCISCO @ NORTH TEXAS
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of North Texas's last 10 games
North Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

SAM HOUSTON STATE @ NORTHERN COLORADO
Northern Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northern Colorado is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 31


Loyola-Chicago @ Michigan

Game 811-812
March 31, 2018 @ 6:06 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
69.813
Michigan
79.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 9 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 5
128 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-5); Over

Kansas @ Villanova

Game 813-814
March 31, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas
74.546
Villanova
71.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 5
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-5); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 31

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LOYOLA-IL (32 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN (32 - 7) - 3/31/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (31 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (34 - 4) - 3/31/2018, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 113-79 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
KANSAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 58-30 ATS (+25.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
KANSAS is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

Smart scores 25, North Texas beats USF 88-77 for CBI title
March 30, 2018

DENTON, Texas (AP) Roosevelt Smart has led North Texas all season, so it was no surprise that he was the most valuable player in the deciding Game 3 of the College Basketball Invitational finals.

Smart, a sophomore who set UNT records for points and 3-point field goals this season, scored 25 points and made all 14 of his free throws in an 88-77 win over San Francisco on Friday night. The Mean Green were 32 for 43 from the line.

Smart said the free-throw success was no accident.

''Practice, really,'' he said. ''After practice, we do this free-throw drill and got to make free throws.''

The Mean Green trailed only once in the first half. They didn't panic when USF pulled within a point at 52-51 with 9:33 to play.

''We calmed down,'' UNT's A.J. Lawson said. ''The season showed that we matured over time. In that situation, we could close a game just by calming down, passing the ball and hitting the open guy. Nobody tried to do anything spectacular and be a superhero.''

First-year North Texas coach Grant McCasland called a timeout and set up a play for an unlikely player, Michael Miller.

''Mike was playing limited to no minutes at times, and all of sudden he steps in and makes some of the biggest shots,'' McCasland said. ''I drew up a play for Mike. He went and caught it and got the basket.''

Four of Smart's points came during an 8-1 run in the second half after USF rallied within 52-51. Smart made two free throws and then added two more when San Francisco coach Kyle Smith drew a technical foul.

''He loves to play, and he's a fantastic teammate,'' McCasland said.

The Mean Green lost the opener in the best-of-three matchup but won 69-55 Wednesday to set up the championship game.

They had lost seven of eight games before receiving their CBI bid.

The players, who had been planning for their spring break, won five of six in the tournament.

Frankie Ferrari led the Dons (22-17) with 19 points. Nate Renfro added 18 and Chase Foster had 12.

North Texas led 45-31 before USF began its comeback. Ferrari started the 20-7 run with two of his five 3-pointers in 11 attempts.

Jorden Duffy scored 14 points and Lawson and Miller each had 12 for UNT.

San Francisco played without center Matt McCarthy, who was injured in Game 2. In his place, Nick Loew and Jimbo Lull totaled eight points and eight rebounds.

BIG PICTURE

San Francisco: The Dons won their home game in the finals but lost both games at UNT. They stayed in the final game by making 12 3-pointers, bringing their season total to 333.

North Texas: The Mean Green had their first winning season since 2011-12. Their 20 wins were 12 more than a year ago. UNT had six 3-pointers for a season total of 302.

COULD RUSSELL BLOCK GREENE?

North Texas fans channeled the most famous athlete in each school's history with a sign that read, ''Mean Joe Greene would have dunked on Bill Russell.''

20-20 VISION

San Francisco has won 20-plus games in each of Smith's two seasons, and North Texas won 20 in McCasland's first season.

UP NEXT

San Francisco has had consecutive 20-win seasons for the first time since 1982. A third wouldn't be a stretch. Foster is one of only two Dons seniors.

North Texas also has only two seniors. ''All the guys that played in this tournament, we return everybody,'' McCasland said. The CBI title could portend bigger things. The 2015 and 2016 champions, Loyola-Chicago and Nevada, reached at least the Sweet 16 in this season's NCAA tournament, with Loyola getting to the Final Four.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

Highest opening day payrolls in major leagues:

1) Red Sox $223M

2) Giants $203M

3) Cubs $183M

T4) Dodgers, Nationals both $180M

6) Angels $170M

7) Bronx $167M

Quote of the Day
?That?s what?s made him great: the attention to detail and the organization and never being satisfied. Unless you?re organized, you?re going to forget something. And that?s the thing that?s going to come back and beat you by one point.?
Penn State assistant football coach Ricky Rahne, talking about his old boss, Kansas State coach Bill Snyder

Saturday?s quiz
Who managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their only World Series title?

Friday?s quiz
Don Mattingly was manager of the Dodgers before Dave Roberts.

Thursday?s quiz
Last time the New York Knicks made the playoffs was in 2013.

************************

Saturday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here??

13) Aaron Calixte scored 17 ppg for a Maine basketball team that went 6-26, playing in a weak America East Conference, the #25 Division I conference (out of 32) in America.

Joe Cremo scored 18 ppg, David Nichols 14.5 ppg for an Albany team that went 22-10, but only 10-6 in America East- they lost in first round of AE tourney two of last three years, but the Great Danes have made the tournament five times since 2006.

All three of these players have bolted their schools before their senior years, looking for greener pastures. Maine fired their coach after the season; Calixte has been pursued by big-name schools such as Florida State.

Albany has had four players transfer in the last week; something is amiss. Great Danes have won 133 games the last six years; when four players bolt a winning program at the same time, there is stuff going on that the general public can?t see.

12) I?m an Albany graduate (yes, I graduated from college!!!); I put myself thru school as student manager of the basketball team, but we were D-3 back then. Very good team, but D-3 is worlds apart from D-1. To see the Great Danes become a successful team at the D-1 level has been fun- coach Will Brown is a good guy who has built a consistent, winning program, but this isn?t good.

When your two best returning players jump ship at the same time, its not a good sign.

11) 29% of major leaguers on Opening Day (254 players) weren?t born in this country.

10) A 36-year old accountant who hadn?t played in anything but beer league hockey games in over a decade played the last 14:01 for the Blackhawks Thursday, after both Chicago goalies got hurt in the game, a 7-2 win over Winnipeg. Scott Foster stopped all seven shots he faced.

9) Oakland Raiders released P Marquette King, the 4th-highest paid punter in the NFL.

8) Temple basketball coach Fran Dunphy will step aside after next season and be succeeded by current assistant Aaron McKie, who played for the Owls.

7) Guy who owns a casino in Las Vegas has a $25,000 bet on Michigan to win the national title, which nets him $1,000,000 if the Wolverines win the championship. Derek Stevens owns the D Casino in Las Vegas and is a Michigan alum? he made the bet at the Golden Nugget.

Funny thing though, I know a guy who is a very knowledgeable sports bettor and Golden Nugget won?t let him bet more than $1,000 on a game. Go figure.

6) Makes no sense to me that Ron Gardenhire is a major league manager and Joe Girardi isn?t.

5) Cincinnati International Airport is actually located in Kentucky.

4) Rusty Staub is the only major leaguer who got 500+ hits for four different teams.

3) Houston Astros have used four outfielders on defense this spring, when lefty hitters Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison and Justin Bour were batting. This defense leaves the entire left side of the infield open- it apparently will only be used when the bases are empty.

2) Royals lost C Salvador Perez with a knee injury that he got while carrying luggage up stairs. He is expected to be out 6-8 weeks

1) ESPN reported how the Las Vegas Raiders opened negotiations with a guy who owns the 7,000-yard Bali Hai golf course in Las Vegas, so they can convert the golf course into stadium parking for the new domed stadium in the desert. That guy is Billy Walters, who is currently in federal prison on insider trading charges. Complicated.

 

[Cnotes53]

Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan
March 30, 2018

Kansas vs. Villanova

The first national semifinal game Saturday in San Antonio will pit Michigan, the Big Ten Tournament champion, against the finest the Missouri Valley Conference has to offer in Loyola-Chicago, which keeps rambling on through the 2018 NCAA Tournament.

Michigan is seeking its first national title since 1989 when it clipped Seton Hall in overtime at the Kingdome in Seattle thanks to a pair of free throws by Rumeal Robinson in the final seconds. Robinson was sent to the charity stripe by legendary referee John Clougherty, who clearly botched the call when he erroneously whistled Gerald Greene for a bogus blocking call with P.J. Carlesimo?s Pirates leading by one.

The Ramblers, who are playing in their first Tournament since 1985, won the national championship back in 1963. They?re looking to cut the nets down Monday night for the second time in school history.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Michigan (32-7 straight up, 24-12 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 129.5. The Ramblers were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220). They remain longshots to win it all with 12/1 odds at Sportsbook.ag.

John Beilein?s team has +260 odds to win on Monday night, down significantly since I played the Wolverines at 60/1 odds back on Jan. 31. They currently have the second-shortest odds to win it all behind Villanova (-110 at Sportsbook.ag), while Kansas is at +360.

Does my 60/1 ticket have life? Absolutely! But is it time to hedge? Yes, but just a little on Saturday. According to 5Dimes.eu, Villanova is a 4.5-point ?chalk? vs. Michigan in a potential finals matchup, with the total at 143.5. The offshore shop has the Wolverines at +175 on the money line versus the Wildcats. 5Dimes has KU as a two-point favorite vs. the blue and maize.

Michigan started the Tournament in inauspicious fashion when it fell behind Montana 10-0 early. The Wolverines would respond, however, and even took the cash in a 61-47 victory as 10-point ?chalk.? Charles Matthews was the catalyst with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman finished with 11 points, five rebounds, two assists and a pair of steals.

Michigan was on the ropes in a Round-of-32 battle with Houston two Saturdays ago. UH?s Devin Davis missed three of four free-throw attempts at crunch time to give the Wolverines life on their final possession trailing by two. Freshman Jordan Poole caught a pass deep on the right wing and launched a 3-ball that?ll haunt Kelvin Sampson for years to come. Poole?s game-winner at the horn lifted Michigan to a 64-63 triumph, although we?ll note that the Cougars took the money as 3.5-point underdogs.

Mo Wagner had 12 points, seven rebounds and three assists vs. Houston, while Abdur-Rahkman had 12 points, three boards and three assists. Matthews and Duncan Robinson chipped in 11 points apiece.

On multiple radio shows last week in Omaha, Clemson and Little Rock, I said, ?Michigan survived the first weekend without playing well. If you can do that and still have a pulse, that?s a great sign. I think we?ll see them play great basketball this weekend.?

I don?t know that I would term its performance great in the Elite Eight, but Michigan was undoubtedly firing on all cylinders last Thursday night at Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Wolverines punched Texas A&M in the mouth early and often, and the Aggies never had an answer. They led 52-28 at halftime and by as many as 29 points en route to a 99-72 victory that was every bit as dominant as the final score suggested.

Abdur-Rahkman led five double-figure scorers with 24 points, five rebounds, one steal and seven assists compared to only one turnover. Wagner buried 8-of-12 field-goal attempts and all three of his 3-pointers in a 21-point effort. Matthews added 18 points and five boards, while Zavier Simpson finished with 11 points, six steals, five assists and four rebounds. Robinson contributed 10 points and three assists without a turnover.

Michigan captured a 58-54 win over FSU in the West Region final this past Saturday night. With the Wolverines favored by four at most spots, this resulted in a push when Leonard Hamilton inexplicably said ?uncle? way too early. I guess Leonard didn?t see Virginia rally from four points down with only one second left to win at Louisville during the regular season. Michigan gathered a defensive rebound with about 12-13 ticks left and was able to dribble out the clock with the Seminoles not even attempting to foul at any point. Hell, Hamilton was walking toward Beilein to shake hands with a good 5-6 seconds remaining.

I cashed a winner with the ?under? when the 112 combined points never threatened to get anywhere near the closing total of 143. Matthews scored 17 points, grabbed eight rebounds and blocked a pair of shots. Wagner finished with 12 points, six boards and two steals, while Simpson contributed nine points, three steals, three rebounds and five assists without a turnover.

Beilein?s squad has won 13 straight games while producing a 10-2-1 ATS record. The Wolverines haven?t tasted defeat since a Feb. 6 loss at Northwestern.

Michigan is ranked eighth in the nation in scoring defense, holding opponents to 63.1 points per game. At the other end, the Wolverines? weakness is free-throw shooting, as they?re making merely 66.2 percent of their attempts from the stripe to rank No. 321 in the country.

Simpson, the team?s point guard who averages team-bests in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG), could be a liability at the FT line in end-game situations. The true freshman point guard has made only 45-of-88 FTAs (51.1%).

Wagner is Michigan?s leading scorer (14.3 PPG) and rebounder (6.9 RPG). He?s making 52.4 percent of his FGAs and can also step out to 3-point range, where he?s knocking down 39.6 percent of his launches. Matthews (13.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is another shaky FT shooter who?s making only 57.4 percent of his attempts. Abdur-Rahkman (12.8 PPG) has a sensational 130/30 assist-to-turnover ratio and hits 38.8 percent of his treys. Robinson (9.5 PPG) provides instant offense off the bench, draining 39.2 percent of his 3-balls and 90.0 percent of his FTs.

Michigan has compiled a 10-6-1 spread record in 17 games as a single-digit favorite this year.

Meanwhile, Loyola-Chicago (32-5 SU, 23-9 ATS) owns a 7-1-1 spread record with seven outright victories in nine games as an underdog. Porter Moses?s team suffered three of its five losses when leading scorer and starting point guard Clayton Custer was out with an injury.

Loyola-Chicago has won 14 consecutive games while posting an 11-3 spread record. The Ramblers advanced to the Round of 32 thanks to Deonte Ingram?s buzzer-beating 3-pointer that sent Miami back to South Florida in one-and-done fashion. They won a 64-62 decision over the Hurricanes as 1.5-point underdogs.

Clayton Custer scored a team-best 14 points and dished out four assists without committing a turnover. Custer drained 4-of-6 attempts from beyond the arc vs. UM. Ingram, who finished with 13 points, seven rebounds, two assists and one blocked shot, hit 3-of-8 from long distance, including the winner at the horn. Aundre Jackson and Cameron Krutwig were also in double figures with 12 and 11 points, respectively.

In the Round of 32, Loyola needed another game-winning bucket in the final seconds. This time around, it was Custer that provided it when he received a friendly roll on mid-range jumper with 3.8 seconds remaining. The go-ahead basket gave the Ramblers a one-point lead that would stick when Tennessee?s Jordan Bone?s top-of-the-key jumper for the win was off the mark.

Loyola beat the third-seeded Volunteers as a 5.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the +215 neighborhood. Jackson scored a game-high 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting from the field and six makes on six tries from the charity stripe. All eight players scored and seven had at least six points. Custer finished with 10 points, three assists and two rebounds, knocking down 4-of-5 FGAs and both launches from beyond the arc.

Moses?s squad fell behind Nevada by double digits early in the first half of its South Region semifinal showdown at Philips Arena in Atlanta. Loyola, the 1.5-point underdog, stormed back to take a four-point lead into intermission. The Ramblers would extend the lead to 10 with 9:45 remaining, but the Wolf Pack made a furious comeback behind the trio of Jordan Caroline and the Martin brothers, Caleb and Cody.

With Loyola leading by one, it took control of the ball with 36 ticks left, leaving a six-second differential between the shot and game clocks. Nevada?s Eric Musselman opted not to foul and just play it out with hopes of a defensive stop. That stop would not come, however.

In its third game of the Tournament, Loyola looked for a third different hero and found it in Marques Townes, who caught the ball in the corner with only 3-4 seconds left on the shot clock. Nevertheless, he had the poise to send a defender past him with a beautiful shot fake before taking a dribble to his left and burying a dagger trey to put his team up by four. Loyola would prevail, 69-68, and in the words of the iconic rock band, Led Zeppelin, ?Ramble On!?

Kansas State, a Thursday night winner over Kentucky in the ATL, was the next foe for Loyola. But there would be no need for late-game heroics this time around. The Ramblers dealt out a pimpslap to the Wildcats in the form of a 78-62 shellacking. They won handily as one-point underdogs.

Loyola led 36-24 at halftime and would extend the lead to as many as 25 points. Ben Richardson buried 6-of-7 attempts from 3-point range and scored a game-high 23 points. He also had six rebounds and four assists compare to just one turnover. Townes finished with 13 points, four boards and three assists, while Ingram contributed 12 points and eight rebounds. The Ramblers enjoyed a 35-27 rebounding advantage and shot 57.4 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from downtown.

Custer leads Loyola in scoring (13.2 PPG), assists (4.2 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG). The two-year starter who sat out the 2015-16 campaign after transferring from Iowa St. has made 52.7 percent of his FGAs, 45.5 percent of his launches from downtown and 75.7 percent of his FTs.

You want balance offensively? Loyola has it in bunches, as all five starters are averaging in double figures, while Richardson contributes 7.0 PPG coming off the bench. Ingram averages 11.3 points and 6.3 RPG. Townes (11.2 PPG) is making 52.2 percent of his FGAs, while Jackson (11.0 PPG) is knocking down 58.0 percent of his shots from the field. Krutwig (10.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) paces the Ramblers in FG percentage (59.7%) and blocked shots (0.7 BPG).

Loyola is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense, limiting opponents to merely 62.4 PPG. As for their offense, the Ramblers are ranked third in the country in FG percentage (50.9%) and 15th in 3-point accuracy (40.0%). Seven players are making 3?s at a 35.4 percent clip or better, with five nailing at least 39.6 percent of their triples.

The ?under? had cashed in eight straight Loyola games before the 140 combined points in its win over Kansas St. went ?over? the 126-point tally. The Ramblers have seen the ?under? go 20-13 overall.

The ?under? is 3-1 for Michigan during the Tournament, 19-16-2 overall. If the total remains in the 120s, it will be the first such tally for the Wolverines since they played at Wisconsin on Feb. 11. That result was an easy ?over? with Beilein?s team cruising to an 83-72 win for 155 combined points (30 points above the closing total of 125). The ?under? has cashed at a 3-1 clip in Michigan?s four games that had totals in the 120s.

Tip-off at the Alamodome is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Michigan is seeking its second national-title game appearance since 2013 when it dropped a nail-biter to Louisville.

-- Michigan owns a 6-1 record in seven all-time appearances in the national semifinals.

-- These schools have met three times. Michigan has won two of those three games, including an 84-80 win in the 1964 NCAA Tournament.

-- Matthews was named the West Region?s Most Outstanding Player last Saturday night.

-- Wagner and Abdur-Rahkman joined Matthews on the all-region team, but Wagner missed all seven of his 3-point attempts vs. FSU.

-- Loyola-Chicago is undefeated in nine games played on neutral courts this season.

-- The Ramblers are the fourth No. 11 seed to make the Final Four, joining the 1986 LSU Tigers (led by Ricky Blanton and the late Don Redden), the 2006 George Mason Patriots (which saw its dream run ended by my Gators!) and the 2011 VCU Rams who lost to Butler in the national semifinals. LSU also lost at the Final Four, so Loyola is obviously trying to become the first No. 11 seed to make the finals.

-- If all four teams bring their ?A-Games? to San Antonio, I think Villanova cuts the nets down. But that?s the beauty of the Tournament ? anything can happen in a one-game scenario. Here?s to hoping the Wolverines will be celebrating Monday night and deliver Beilein his first national championship!

 

[Cnotes53]

No. 1 seeds Kansas, Villanova meet in national semifinal
March 30, 2018

SAN ANTONIO (AP) No. 1 seed Kansas (31-7) vs. No. 1 seed Villanova (34-4)

National semifinal; San Antonio; Saturday, 8:49 p.m. EDT

BOTTOM LINE: In an NCAA Tournament that had the first No. 16 seed win over a No. 1, and an unprecedented 9-vs-11 regional final, two No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. Only one will play for the national title since perennial Big 12 champion Kansas plays Villanova in the second regional semifinal game.

ALL-AMERICAN GUARDS: Both teams have AP All-America guards. Villanova's Jalen Brunson was also named The Associated Press men's college basketball player of the year. Kansas senior Devonte' Graham was the Big 12 player of the year.

''It deserves the hype, but at the end of the day, we both know that it is Kansas vs. Villanova, not Jalen vs. Devonte,''' Graham said.

Brunson is averaging 19.2 points game and 4.6 assists per game while hitting 41 percent of his 3-pointers (82 of 198). Graham has 17.2 points and 7.3 assists per game, and shoots 40 percent from long range (106 of 263).

BEYOND THE ARC: Villanova made only four 3-pointers in their 71-59 East Region final victory over Texas Tech, its second-lowest total of the season. But the Wildcats enter the Final Four with 436 3-pointers, which is only six shy of the NCAA single-season record set by VMI in 2007.

SO CLOSE TO LAST TITLE: The Alamodome is about a 200-mile drive from Houston, where two years ago the Wildcats won their first championship since 1985 when Kris Jenkins hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. Villanova got to that Final Four after beating Kansas 64-59 in the South Region final.

Coach Jay Wright said he sees threads between the 2016 title team and this year's squad.

''All the teams that are here, you have a laser focus, you have an ability to prepare for different opponents. If you don't, someone's going to catch you along the way. And it really has to be at a high level,'' Wright said. ''And this group reminds me of our group in `16 in that way. And I feel like we're getting better as the season goes on, even at this time of year. And that's something that's similar to our team in `16.''

A DECADE AGO: The Jayhawks this season won an unprecedented 14th consecutive conference title. But it's now been 10 years since they won their fifth national title. That Final Four was also the last one played at the Alamodome.

 

[Cnotes53]

Kansas vs. Villanova
March 30, 2018

Two No. 1 seeds failed to survive the first weekend of the 2018 NCAA Tournament, but the other two are still ticking and one will play for the national title on Monday night. That?ll be the winner of Saturday?s second national semifinal game between Kansas and Villanova at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

As of early Friday night, most betting shops had Villanova (34-4 straight up, 26-12 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 154.5. KU was +200 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $200).

Jay Wright?s team leads the nation in scoring with its 86.6 points-per-game average. Villanova is sixth in the country in field-goal percentage (49.9%), 19th in 3-point accuracy (40.0%) and eighth in free-throw percentage (78.0%). On the other end, they are ranked 32nd in the nation at defending the 3-point line (32.2%).

Villanova advanced to the Final Four for the second time in three seasons with wins over Radford (87-61), Alabama (81-58), West Virginia (90-78) and Texas Tech (71-59). The Wildcats have covered the spread in all four Tournament games and seven of their past eight. They?re on a nine-game winning streak since dropping an 89-83 overtime decision at Creighton on Feb. 24.

All five starters and one reserve scored in double figures in the 26-point win over Radford. Jalen Brunson, one of five finalists for the Wooden Award along with KU?s Devonte Graham, scored a game-high 16 points on 7-of-9 FGAs. Mikal Bridges added 13 points and six rebounds, draining 3-of-6 launches from 3-point territory.

Villanova led Alabama 27-25 with two minutes remaining in the first half, but it was able to extend the lead to 32-27 by halftime. Then Wright?s team played its best basketball of the Tournament to start the second half, ripping off an 18-1 run to take a 50-28 advantage by the under-16 television timeout. At that point, it was over and the Wildcats coasted to the spread cover as 11.5-point ?chalk.?

Bridges was the catalyst with 23 points on 5-of-8 shooting from long distance. Donte DiVincenzo added 18 points and five assists compared to one turnover. The junior guard buried 5-of-11 launches from 3-point land. Brunson was also in double figures with 12 points, two steals, two rebounds and four assists without a turnover.

Waiting for ?Nova in the East Region semifinals at TD Garden in Boston was a game West Virginia club led by senior point guard Jevon Carter, who had been sensational in WVU?s two wins in the Tournament?s first weekend. The game was tied at 60-60 with 10 minutes remaining, but Villanova started to create some separation from the Mountaineers over the next six minutes. The Wildcats took their first double-digit lead on a bucket with 3:43 left and eventually won by a 90-78 count as 5.5-point favorites.

Brunson erupted for 27 points and Omari Spellman produced 17 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three blocked shots and a pair of steals. Bridges added 16 points and six boards on 3-of-5 shooting from beyond the arc. Eric Paschall finished with 14 points and two steals, draining 2-of-3 treys.

Villanova faced another Big 12 foe in the East Region finals, third-seeded Texas Tech. The Red Raiders scored the game?s first seven points and didn?t relinquish the lead for nearly eight minutes. However, the Wildcats got hot late in the first half and enjoyed a 36-23 advantage at intermission. They would lead by as many as 15 points en route to a 71-59 win as 6.5-point ?chalk.?

Brunson scored a game-high 15 points to go with six rebounds, four assists and two steals. Bridges, Paschall and DiVincenzo scored 12 points apiece, with Paschall pulling down 14 rebounds. DiVincenzo snagged eight rebounds as ?Nova dominated the glass with a 50-28 rebounding advantage. The Wildcats had 19 offensive boards.

Brunson is averaging team-highs in scoring (19.2 PPG), assists (4.6 APG) and FG percentage (52.7%). Bridges is tops for the Wildcats in steals (1.5 SPG) and FT percentage (84.8%), and he?s second in scoring (17.8 PPG), rebounding (5.4 RPG), blocked shots (41) and 3-point shooting (43.6%). Spellman (10.8 PPG) averages team-bests in rebounding (7.8 RPG) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG).

DiVincenzo has enjoyed a breakout campaign, averaging 12.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He?s hit 47.0 percent of his FGAs and 38.5 percent of his 3-point launches. Paschall (10.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) has 80 assists, 35 steals and 23 blocked shots. Senior guard Phil Booth (10.3 PPG) has an 89/43 assist-to-turnover ratio and has made 39.0 percent of his 3-pointers and 80.0 percent of his FTs.

Villanova has been a single-digit favorite 13 times this season, going 8-5 ATS with three outright defeats.

Since Feb. 13, Kansas (31-7 SU, 20-16 ATS) has won 12 of its 13 games while compiling an 8-5 spread record. Bill Self?s squad has been an underdog five times this year, producing a 4-1 record both SU and ATS.

KU?s last two teams have gone down in the Elite Eight, including a 64-59 loss to Villanova in the 2016 South Region finals in Louisville. The Wildcats, who eventually won the national title on Kris Jenkins? buzzer-beating 3-pointer in the finals against North Carolina, won outright as two-point underdogs. They still have three players that played major minutes in that game.

Brunson scored seven points in 22 minutes of action vs. KU, while Bridges contributed six points, five steals three rebounds and one assists in 26 minutes of playing time. Booth went scoreless in 12 minutes. Devonte? Graham hit 5-of-9 attempts from 3-point territory and scored a game-high 17 points for KU. He also had seven rebounds in the losing effort.

Kansas and Villanova also squared off in the 2008 Midwest Region semifinals at Ford Field in Detroit. KU won a 72-57 decision over the Wildcats and covered as a 12-point favorite. The Jayhawks would beat Steph Curry?s Davidson team by one point two days later before winning the national title in San Antonio the following weekend. They got a Mario Chalmers? 3-pointer to force overtime in a thrilling win over John Calipari?s Memphis team in the finals.

KU advanced to the national semifinals by beating Duke 85-81 in overtime as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday night. With the Jayhawks trailing by three points with 25 ticks left in regulation, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk buried a clutch trey to tie the score. At the other end, Duke senior guard Grayson Allen saw his potential game-winning bucket bounce in and out at the buzzer, forcing the extra session.

Malik Newman was the star and his crucial 3-pointer in OT proved to be pivotal. The transfer from Mississippi St. produced 32 points, seven rebounds, three steals and two assists for the Jayhawks. Graham, the senior guard who has been a program stalwart throughout his four-year career, had 11 points, six rebounds and six assists compared to just two turnovers. Lagerald Vick contributed 14 points and Mykhailiuk had 11 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

KU covered the spread in its 76-60 win over Penn in the first round as a 13.5-point favorite. The Quakers darted out to a double-digit lead early in the first half, but the Jayhawks responded with a 22-5 run to take a 33-26 lead into intermission. Graham stole the show with 29 points, six rebounds, six assists and three steals.

Kansas made the Sweet 16 with an 83-79 win over Seton Hall, but its backers took a brutal beat when the Pirates hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give them a backdoor cover as 4.5-point underdogs. Newman scored 28 points for the (outright) winners on 4-of-8 shooting from downtown.

Gamblers on Kansas took another bad beat in its Sweet 16 win over Clemson. Self?s team closed the first half on a 20-8 surge to lead the Tigers 40-27 at halftime. KU would extend its lead to 20 points when it started the second half on a 9-2 run. The Jayhawks, who closed as five-point favorites, seemed to be on their way to an easy spread cover with a 72-57 advantage with 4:40 remaining. However, Clemson closed the game on an improbable 19-8 roll to cover the number in an 80-76 loss.

KU made just 14-of-22 FTAs, including several costly misses in the final minute. Newman scored a team-high 17 points, while Graham produced 16 points, five rebounds and four assists. Udoka Azubuike, the 7-foot sophomore center who missed the Big Tournament injured and played only three minutes vs. Penn, came back to life with 14 points, 11 rebounds and two blocked shots. Vick contributed 13 points, eight boards and two blocked shots vs. Clemson.

KU utilizes a four-guard attack with Azubuike (13.1 PPG) serving as its rim protector. He paces the Jayhawks in rebounding (7.1 RPG), FG percentage (77.2%) and blocked shots (1.7 BPG).

Graham leads Kansas in scoring (17.2 PPG), assists (7.3 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG). He has a 279/106 assist-to-turnover ratio and has buried 40.3 percent of his 3-pointers and 83.0 percent of his FTs. Mykhailiuk (14.7 PPG) has 104 assistrs, 45 steals and 12 blocked shots. He?s made a team-best 44.7 percent of his shots from 3-point range.

Newman averages 14.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He has hit 41.5 percent of his treys and 83.2 percent of his FTs.

The ?over? has been a monster maker in Villanova games, cashing at a 25-13 overall clip. However, the ?under? has cashed in three of the Wildcats? past five games. This will be the highest total they?ve seen since a 94-70 win over Marquette at the Big East Tournament on March 8. That game saw the 164 combined points inch ?over? the 160-point total.

KU has seen the ?over? hit in three straight games and go 5-1-1 in its past six outings. The ?over? is 19-17-1 overall for the Jayhawks, who are ranked 11th in the nation in both FG percentage (49.3%) and 3-point accuracy (40.3%).

Tip-off on TBS will be approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan.

 

[Cnotes53]

Final Four Wagers
March 30, 2018

So Many Final Four Bets To Make

Villanova reigns supreme as the best bet to the win March Madness because?well, haven?t you been watching? After torturing Texas Tech, West Virginia, Alabama and Radford in the first four rounds it?s become painfully obvious that Villanova is simply a cut above the rest. It?s not like that is an easy slate. Even the West Virginia game was a thriller, but the end scores make it look like Villanova had no problem.

That?s why the oddsmakers have inserted the Wildcats as the prohibitive favorites to take the whole thing. The nice thing about the way BetOnline.ag has stacked the futures market for March Madness is that you can also bet on one team, or the rest of the ?field?. You can bet on Villanova to win at -110, but you can also bet on Michigan, Kansas and Loyola-Chicago to win at -110 as well. It?s a great way to approach this coming weekend, and I love the built in hedge factor.

Check out the March Madness futures board to see those very tempting odds. I?ve listed the straight championship odds for your reference. And yes, Loyola-Chicago at 100-to-1 is as tempting as a slithering snake with an apple in its jaws. You can also bet on the exact outcome of the championship game as well, with Villanova beating Michigan rated at +150.

NCAA Tournament Field Bets
Villanova -110
Michigan +260
Kansas +400
Loyola-Chicago +1000

With that out of the way, we can now turn our attention to the upcoming Final Four weekend. The championship game will be on Monday night and we?ll have a proper preview of that game. But the props and futures board will only be live until tip-off for tomorrow?s games. So get betting before it?s too late!

Both games are on Saturday, March 31st. Odds featured are provided by BetOnline.ag.

#11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers +5.5 over #3 Michigan Wolverines

There are a lot of ways to qualify this bet. You could tell yourself that you?re riding the Cinderella story of Loyola-Chicago. Maybe you love Air Jean, and who doesn?t love Air Jean? It?s also easy to discuss the Ramblers as a legitimate defensive powerhouse. But more than anything, this is a bet against Michigan for me.

I have just not been convinced by the way that they?ve played. It just doesn?t have any reliable metrics that I can comfortably bank on. They struggled mightily against FSU, which gave up with significant time left on the clock and no real explanation. Texas A&M lost by a 27-point margin, but hounded them the entire way and the Wolverines never ever looked comfortable. A one point game against Houston?! HOUSTON?! C?mon man!

Michigan is a great team. Don?t get me wrong. But they have significant issues with consistency, discipline and rhythm. Plus, they?re an average offensive team at best. They decimated the Aggies from beyond the arc by hitting 58.3 percent of their threes which is something they?ve NEVER recreated the entire season. Their average is 36.6 and against FSU they shot a miserable 18.2 percent with 4 of 22 long shots made.

Outside of that sudden barrage from distance in the Sweet Sixteen, they?ve relied on good luck, bad opposing coach decisions and missed shots that good teams can make. I just hate the idea that team like this can trip over their own shoelaces en route to a championship berth. They?re super talented and deserve better than this, but they aren?t doing themselves any favors either.

Scoring is going to be so important in this game because Loyola-Chicago has proven time and again that their KenPom.com metrics are legit. When adjusted across the board, Loyola-Chicago ranked second in the whole country for defence. Just 62.4 points allowed overall, a 41.4 percent opponent field goal percentage and strong rebounding numbers all add up to a team that far exceeds the seed that they were handed at the onset of March Madness. And all of their metrics in this regard have held steady against all opponents.

It?s true that they?ve had a bunch of good luck as well, but they?ve more than created that luck. The Ramblers are an average scoring bunch that has had tremendous efforts from players like Ben Richardson and Marques Townes, but defence is how they make their money. Keeping opponents within coffin nail distance is their jam, so to speak.

There?s no doubt that Loyola-Chicago can keep Michigan within striking distance, or run away with this game completely. The only reason the Wolverines might compete is if they hit from range at an abnormal clip. That?s not happening. Win or lose, Loyola-Chicago is a fantastic bet which is why two-thirds of the betting public is caught up in the well justified hysteria.

The clock is supposed to eventually strike midnight on a Cinderella team, but you could say the very same about Michigan?s good fortune. I?d rather back the team that has been at the core of creating their own luck rather than the team that has depended on it happening incidentally.

#1 Villanova Wildcats -5.0 over #1 Kansas Jayhawks (8:49pm ET)

While we?ve already touched on what the Villanova Wildcats have accomplished, it?s important to keep in mind that they?re running to (most likely) they?re biggest challenge of the tournament. Kansas has generated a ton of interest as moderate underdogs, and the big reason is that their scoring output has been off the charts. They?ve actually maintained their scoring average of 81.4 throughout the Big 12 and Championship Tournament with Udoka Azubuike and Devonte? Graham running at full steam these days.

That?s all well and good. Kansas is a complete team with a great coach who has shown consistency through his entire tenure. But there are problems, and most of them come on the defensive end. They allowed 81 against while playing Duke, and gave up 76 and 79 to Seton Hall. This generally makes sense. Kansas has been allowing 83.3 points against through their last seven games in tournament play.

Against any other team, including the other pair of Final Four contenders, that would be fine. But against Villanova? That?s a dangerous gate to leave open for an opponent that is rated as the best offense in the country, but has also turned the screws in defensively with just 65.7 allowed over their past seven matchups. That?s actually a major uptick from their season average where they gave up 70.2 per game.

Kansas has all the weapons to keep up with Villanova in theory, but the way that the Wildcats have been playing is on a completely different level. You could very well talk yourself in to Kansas giving Villanova a run; that?s the epitome of gambling on sports in general isn?t it? The much more logical play is to bank on Villanova using the past week to figure out how to smother the Kansas? offence while exposing Self?s weak perimeter defense.

Let?s also keep in mind that Villanova has been exceptional at protecting money on the spread. They?re 4-0 ATS in March Madness betting already, which is far better than we can say about Kansas?s 2-2 ATS record. Their respectable cover, which came last weekend against Duke in an 85-81 victory, barely hit the -3.5 mark as well.

On paper this is a dream matchup of a swiftly rising program that has finally steadied as a major player, and a renowned school that has routinely been at the forefront of the game. More importantly for your interests, this is a big ticket game with one very clear option .Villanova is a superior team in every single way, and that isn?t nearly enough points for a defensive inept team like Kansas to cover.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bets
March 30, 2018

Saturday Final Four Best Bets

After two incredibly intense and upset-filled weekends of action in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, we are down to the Final Four teams remaining and they aren't without surprises. Clearly the biggest surprise is having #11 Loyola-Chicago get this far and you've got to wonder if their Cinderella run will end against Michigan or not.

The other matchup pits a couple of blue bloods against one another in Villanova and Kansas and no matter who wins the other game, the winner of the Wildcats/Jayhawks matchup will go into the final as the favorite. So where should your money be going on Final Four Saturday?

Best Bet #1: Loyola-Chicago/Michigan Under 129.5

This total has already seen plenty of upward momentum after opening up at 128 and I don't really understand why. Yes, we've seen the Wolverines light up the scoreboard to the tune of 99 points against Texas A&M, but outside of that game, Michigan hasn't scored more than 64 points in their other three tournament wins.

They are a team that likes to rely on their defense, slow the game down when they can and find success that way. If that's their strength, what do you think they'll be looking to rely on with a ticket to the National Championship game on the line?

Loyola-Chicago won't have any issue with playing a slower game where the first to 65 wins, as they've scored in the 60's in three of their four tournament wins as well. They did shoot the lights out against Kansas State in the Elite Eight, but I don't expect a repeat performance in that regard against this Wolverines side.

Nerves haven't bothered the Ramblers on their run to the Final Four, but the stage is definitely the biggest here and if we do see some tentativeness pop out, it's just an added plus for this 'under' play.

But what seals this play for me is trying to visualize how each team expects to get the job done and win this game. For Michigan, it's all about not taking Loyola-Chicago lightly, relying on their defense to clog up everything and then maybe hit a three-pointer or two late to pull away.

A scoring fest isn't something Michigan wants to get involved with because Loyola-Chicago does have five different guys who averaged double figures this year. So keep this game in the 60's and Michigan will like their chances without question.

Loyola-Chicago has to believe that their best chance for success is keeping the game in a similar range as they'll be looking to chase the Wolverines off the three-point line in the same fashion that Florida State did in the Elite Eight.

Michigan couldn't get anything to drop that day and considering this 14-game winning streak to conclude the year for Loyola-Chicago has come with a 5-9 O/U record alongside it, playing tight defense is something they won't shy away from either.

So while I do believe Michigan finds a way to win this game SU and advance, I believe there is more margin for error with the total as opposed to the spread. This game could easily be a 65-60 type finish in favor of the Wolverines, and given their team struggles on the charity stripe all year (another plus for an 'under' play), I wouldn't want to be sweating out a make/miss for either team to cover the side. The magnitude of the stage and the styles of the two teams involved keep this game lower scoring.

Best Bet #2: Kansas +5

For a tournament full of upsets, getting two #1 seeds to meet in the Final Four does feel a bit odd. And while Villanova has run over everyone in their path so far, and Kansas squeaked out a few games, I'm not sure Kansas is getting the respect they deserve on this spread.

Villanova has definitely looked like the team to beat this entire tournament, but outside of the first 30 minutes against West Virginia, have they really been that tested? The Wildcats beat up on an Alabama team that many questioned their entry into the tournament, struggled with West Virginia for 30 minutes before pulling away in the final 10, and used a dominant final 10 minutes in the first half to seal up the win against Texas Tech.

A Villanova opponent (who were already some of the questionable ones in the tournament) has yet to play a complete 40 minute game against them and everyone has spent the week singing the praises of this team as the upcoming National Champions? I don't buy it.

Kansas is that team that is capable of playing a complete 40 minutes against Villanova because the Jayhawks have been forced to this entire tournament to get this far. They've won each game since the first round by exactly four points and needed a comeback to force OT to beat Duke in the last one.

It pays to be tested multiple times in this tournament and still be alive (just ask Loyola-Chicago and Michigan about that) and the fruits of that labor for Kansas will show up in spades in this game.

The Jayhawks have the guard play to match Villanova for the full 40 minutes, and Villanova and their 86 points per game won't be able to run and hide from a Kansas team that scores 80+ themselves. Oh, and we can't forget about the fact that a few guys on this Kansas team like Devonte Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk haven't forgotten about losing to this Villanova team back in the 2016 tournament during the Elite Eight.

A few years later, I expect the Jayhawks to get their revenge and play for another championship in the Bill Self era, but taking all these points is the safer way to go.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 31


Loyola-Chicago @ Michigan

Game 811-812
March 31, 2018 @ 6:06 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
69.813
Michigan
79.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 9 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 5
128 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-5); Over

Kansas @ Villanova

Game 813-814
March 31, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas
74.546
Villanova
71.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 5
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-5); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 31

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LOYOLA-IL (32 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN (32 - 7) - 3/31/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS (31 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (34 - 4) - 3/31/2018, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 113-79 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
KANSAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 58-30 ATS (+25.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
KANSAS is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 31

Since 1987, Final Four teams seeded #7 or worse are 2-5-1 vs spread in national semifinals, and that counts a 2011 game between a #8 and #1-seed, so its really 1-4-1 vs spread. Loyola is on an unconscious roll, with three tourney wins by total of four points, before they whacked K-State in regional final. Ramblers are 21-1 since Jan 6; they? won 14 games in a row. Loyola is #137 experience team that plays pace #315. Michigan is 15-3 outside Big 14; they?ve won 13 games in row- their last loss was Feb 6. Wolverines are #205 experience team that plays pace #326- they?re #3 team at protecting the ball.

Since 1987, when two #1-seeds play in the national semifinals, underdogs are 8-2 vs the spread. Last six years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in national semis. Villanova is 11-1 in its last dozen NCAA tourney games- they pounded Oklahoma by 44 in national semis in 2016. Wildcats are 17-0 outside Big East, beating West Virginia/Texas Tech of Big X in last two games. Villanova is #282 experience team that plays pace #160- they make 40% of their 3?s. Kansas won 12 of its last 13 games; they?re 15-2 outside Big X. Jayhawks are #154 experience team that plays pace #150. Kansas opponents shoot only 32.7% on the arc (#40).




NCAAB

Saturday, March 31

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Trend Report
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LOYOLA-CHICAGO @ MICHIGAN
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Loyola-Chicago's last 9 games
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan's last 9 games

VILLANOVA @ KANSAS
Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Villanova is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas's last 6 games
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Villanova's last 19 games
Villanova is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas's last 6 games
Kansas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Villanova

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
Monty Andrews

You won't find many weaknesses on the Villanova Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-5, 128.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Wolverines' elite ball security

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were staring at insurmountable odds to reach the Final Four heading into the NCAA Tournament - and yet, here they are, just two wins away from the most improbable collegiate title in history. But the Ramblers still have work to do as they take on the favored Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night in San Antonio. Loyola-Chicago will need to do plenty right to advance to Monday's title game - starting with taking extra-good care of the basketball.

Hot shooting and timely defense has been the trademark of the Ramblers' run to the Final Four in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in more than three decades - but those proficiencies have also masked significant struggles when it comes to turnovers. Loyola-Chicago upended Kansas State 78-62 in Elite Eight action despite losing the turnover battle 15-6 - an extension of its regular-season woes, when it finished outside the top 250 nationally in percentage of possessions leading to a TO (17.3).

It isn't enough that the Wolverines boast one of the top scoring defenses in the nation (63.1 points per game against, eighth-fewest in the country). Michigan also takes care of the ball as well as any team in Division I. The Wolverines commit an average of 9.2 turnovers per contest; only Virginia (8.5) has been better. Michigan will be content to play a plodding, slow-paced game and take advantage of the Ramblers' turnovers - and given past history, there could be a lot of them.

Ramblers' dynamic discipline vs. Wolverines' free-throw aversion

Loyola-Chicago is one of only four No. 11 seeds to reach the Final Four - and the South Region champions don't intend to stop there. But oddsmakers aren't so sure the tournament Cinderella has much magic left in it; Bet365 has the Ramblers installed as a +900 longshot to win the championship. That said, all four teams have played well enough to win the title - including Loyola-Chicago, which can prevail against the imposing Wolverines if it continues to be one of the country's most disciplined teams.

It's hard enough to boast a top-five scoring defense as the Ramblers do (62.4 ppg against) - but to do so without sending opponents to the free-throw line is truly impressive. Loyola-Chicago is one of only three NCAA teams to limit opponents to fewer than 10 made free throws per game, and its 13.9 attempts surrendered per game are sixth-fewest in the country. And that stinginess has extended to the NCAA Tournament, with the Ramblers allowing an average of 11.3 free-throw attempts in their first four games.

That number probably won't climb much - if at all - against a Wolverines team that was positively dreadful at getting to the foul line during the season, averaging just 11.5 makes (312th overall) on 17.4 attempts (271st). And even if Michigan can find a way to draw fouls against the Ramblers, there's no guarantee it will capitalize; the Wolverines have shot an abysmal 66.2 percent from the free-throw line so far this season, good for 321st overall. If this one comes down to free throws, Loyola-Chicago has the edge.

Villanova Wildcats (1) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (1) (+5, 155.5)

Villanova's free-throw bonanza vs. Jayhawks' foul-shot foibles

While the left side of the NCAA Tournament bracket was full of stunning upsets and unpredictable finishes, the right side played out exactly as the bracketeers imagined - with the top seeds prevailing in the East and Midwest Regions, respectively, to set up a 1-vs.-1 Final Four matchup Saturday in San Antonio. But oddsmakers consider the Villanova Wildcats more worthy of a No. 1 seed, making them a comfortable fave vs. the Kansas Jayhawks thanks in some part to a considerable edge at the free-throw line.

You won't find many weaknesses on the Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game while ranking sixth in field-goal percentage (49.9) and 19th in 3-point success rate (40 percent). The Wildcats are also as automatic as they come when it comes to free throws, converting at a 78-percent clip through 38 games - good for eighth in the country. If Kansas puts Villanova on the line, the result could be devastating.

The same most certainly cannot be said for the Jayhawks, who have been a below-average free-throw-shooting team for most of the season (70.5 percent, 215th overall) - and it nearly derailed their national title hopes twice, as they shot just 69.2 percent in a four-point win over Seton Hall and 63.6 percent in a four-point triumph over Clemson. They can ill afford a similar showing Saturday against a Villanova team that has proven to be one of the top-shooting teams in the nation.

Wildcats' mediocre assist prevention vs. Jayhawks' sensational ball distribution

Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are the oddsmakers' choice to claim the national championship, installed at -105 on Bet365; Michigan is next at +260, while the Jayhawks sit third at +350 despite being the top seed in the Midwest Region. But while Villanova is far and away the top remaining team in the tournament, it's not perfect - and if the Jayhawks can take advantage of the edge they have in the ball distribution department, they might be in line for the upset.

It might seem like nit-picking, but the Wildcats have not been great at defending opposing passers. Villanova surrenders 13.6 assists per game - ranking 189th overall - and surrenders an assist on 53.1 percent of opposing shots made, placing it outside the top 200 in that category. And good passing was the key to beating the Wildcats during the regular season; Villanova surrendered an average of 16.5 assists while allowing a helper on 56.4 percent of opponents' made shots in their four losses.

If Jayhawks bettors are looking for reason for optimism, this is the place to start. The Jayhawks average a whopping 16.9 assists per contest, the 13th-best mark in the country. And while their 0.564 assists per made field goal ranks just 77th overall, they're a top-20 team in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.43). And that sensational ball movement is heating up as the tournament goes on, with Kansas recording 52 assists over its past three games. Look for the Jayhawks to spread the ball around at will Saturday night.

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, MARCH 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

L-IL at MICH 06:09 PM
MICH -5.5
O 130.0

VILL at KU 08:49 PM
VILL -5.0
U 154.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Wagner, Michigan end Loyola's run 69-57 in Final Four
March 31, 2018

SAN ANTONIO (AP) Staring down a 10-point, second-half deficit against an underdog that seemed nothing short of blessed during the madness of March, Moe Wagner and Michigan clamped down on Loyola-Chicago and ended one of the most memorable NCAA Tournament runs ever.

Wagner scored 24 points, Charles Matthews added 17 and the Wolverines rallied to beat the Ramblers 69-57 Saturday night in the Final Four.

The third-seeded Wolverines (33-7) will take a 14-game winning streak, the longest in the nation, into their first national championship game appearance since 2013, and second under coach Jon Beilein.

''We're not done yet,'' Michigan senior Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahkman said.

Michigan will play a No. 1 seed, either Villanova or Kansas, for its first NCAA title since 1989 on Monday night at the Alamodome.

Lovable Loyola (32-6), with superfan Sister Jean courtside and their fans behind the bench standing for pretty much the entire game, could not conjure another upset. The Ramblers were the fourth 11th-seeded team to make it this far and like the previous three, the semifinals were the end of the road.

Coach Porter Moser said he was proud of players Ben Richardson, Aundre Jackson and Donte Ingram for holding it together during a postgame news conference, answering questions with red eyes and long faces.

''But it was as tough a locker room as I've seen because they believed they belonged and they believed like they wanted to advance,'' Moser said.

Loyola had no answers for the 6-foot-11 Wagner, and its offense, so smooth and efficient on the way to San Antonio, broke down in the second half and finished with 17 turnovers.

Wagner, playing in front of his parents who made the trip from Germany, had 15 rebounds and was 10 for 16 from the field. Matthews, the Kentucky transfer and Chicago native, had a run-out dunk with 1:33 left that made it 63-53. And that was that.

Wagner became the third player in the last 40 years with a 20 and 15 game in a Final Four game , joining Hakeem Olajuwon of Houston in 1983 (then known as Akeem) and Larry Bird of Indiana State in 1979.

''Wow. If you put it like that, it's probably cool,'' Wagner said. ''But to be honest, I kept looking possession by possession. We had trouble scoring the first half. We scored 22 points and that was kind of the only way we found our way to the basket, grab offensive rebounds and get second-shot opportunities.

''And I honestly just tried to do my job.''

Or, as Michigan guard Jaaron Simmon, put it: ''He was a beast tonight.''

Wagner also went flying off the elevated court, chasing a loose ball, avoiding injury but taking out CBS commentator Bill Raftery's eye glasses. It was a full night.

As the seconds ticked off, Wagner pumped his fist to the many Michigan fans who made the trek to San Antonio, while Loyola's Jackson, who got the Ramblers rolling with a late game-winning 3 in the first round against Miami, looked toward the roof and shook his head.

Cameron Krutwig, Loyola's big man, scored 17 points and Clayton Custer had 13 of his 15 after halftime. But facing one of the best defensive teams in the country, the best defensive team Beilein has ever had in 11 seasons in Ann Arbor, the Ramblers scored just 16 points in the final 14 minutes.

''Their length. They close the gap of opportunity really fast,'' Moser said.

Custer scored seven straight points for Loyola at one point to put the Ramblers up 41-31 with 14:08 remaining.

''I don't know if they had magic on their side,'' Beilein said. ''They're good.''

Michigan refused to fade, even with point guard Zavier Simpson - whose solid play has been critical to the Wolverines' late-season surge - playing terribly. Simpson had no points and four turnovers.

Simmons, Simpson's backup, made a 3 and Duncan Robinson hit another a few minutes later and the deficit was down to 45-42 with 10 minutes left.

''Not dropping our heads, that was the main thing,'' Simmons said. ''We haven't been down in a game for a long time. So not dropping our heads was one of the main adjustments we had to make.''

Wagner hit a 3 from right in front of the Michigan bench with 6:50 left to tie it, and moments later the Wolverines were back on top, 49-47, when Jordan Poole made two free throws.

Loyola turned it over on three straight possessions and Wagner tipped in a miss by Poole, was fouled and converted the 3-point play to put Michigan up 54-47 with just under five minutes left.

The Ramblers' 14-game losing streak is over, along with an incredible feel-good story at a time that college basketball, engulfed in a corruption scandal, could truly use one. Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt and her favorite team, the Missouri Valley Conference champions, making their first NCAA appearance since 1985, will return to Chicago as heroes, regardless.

''It's special to see kind of what stage we were able to get to,'' said Richardson, a senior who grew up in Kansas with Custer and then convinced his friend to transfer from Iowa State to Loyola. ''Despite going out this way, were going to never forget this. I think a lot of people will remember this run for a long time.''

Michigan has more work to do. The Wolverines, unranked to start the season and sitting at 19-7 in early February, will now resume the underdog role they have played much of the season, trying to win their second NCAA championship.

''This team's had no attention at all,'' Beilein said. ''Until we went up to beat Michigan State we weren't nationally ranked. Now we're playing on Monday night.''