NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, November 29
Auburn is 4-1, with only loss 88-74 to Temple on neutral floor in Charleston. Tigers are #316 experience team that is playing pace #10- they start two sophs, three juniors, scored 83+ points in all four wins. Dayton is 3-2, 2-0 at home, beating couple of MAC teams by 1-13 points. Flyers are #281 experience team playing pace #317. Dayton has new coach, who used to be Alabama?s coach, so he is familiar with Auburn, winning last three meetings. Last 2+ years, A-14 teams are 10-8 vs spread when playing an SEC opponent. SEC faves are 14-6 vs spread away from home.
First true road game for 6-1 Penn State team whose only loss was 98-87 to Texas A&M in NYC; Lions are #242 experience team playing #58 pace- they?re forcing turnovers 25.5% of time. NC State upset Arizona in Atlantis, then lost to Tennessee/No Iowa by 4-9 points. Wolfpack is playing #83 pace, forcing turnovers 25.4% of time- they?re making only 27.5% behind arc. Big 14 favorites are 3-0 vs spread when playing an ACC team this year. Big 14 favorites are 16-9 vs spread away from home; ACC underdogs are 3-7.
Clemson is 5-1, losing only top 100 game by 7 to Temple on neutral floor; Tigers are #78 experience team- they start three juniors, two seniors. Clemson is shooting 59.8% inside arc. Ohio State lost 2 of 3 in PK80 tourney over weekend, beating Stanford for only win. Buckeyes are weak at guard, turning ball over 20.6% of time, shooting 31.3% behind arc. Last 2+ years, Big 14 teams are 33-27 vs spread when playing ACC teams. Big 14 home favorites are 18-9 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 3-7.
North Carolina is 5-1 after losing 63-45 to Michigan State in PK80 final Sunday nite. Tar Heels are #222 experience team playing #20 pace- they start two juniors, two seniors. Michigan is 6-1 against schedule #325; they lost 77-75 to LSU out in Maui. Wolverines beat VCU out there- this is their first true road game- they start two seniors. Carolina has already played four top 100 teams; all their wins are by 12+ points. ACC favorites are 4-0-2 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent this season. ACC home favorites are 15-7 vs spread; Big 14 underdogs are 2-10.
UNLV is vastly improved at 6-0, but this is their first road game; they beat Utah 85-58 in their only top 100 game so far. Rebels are #224 experience team that has played schedule #344- this will be an interesting test. Northern Iowa is 4-2 with wins over NC State/SMU- they lost to pair of top 15 teams, have played schedule #42 so far. UNI turns ball over 21.8% of time, playing a slow (bottom 10) pace. Last 2+ years, Mountain West teams are 13-13 vs spread when playing an MVC team. MW favorites are 7-4 vs spread away from home; MVC home teams are 8-4.
Evansville is 5-1 vs schedule #314; their only loss was 63-61 to La Tech in Cancun a week ago. Purple Aces are #92 experience team, starting three seniors- they beat MW?s Fresno by hoop in Cancun. New Mexico lost its last four games, allowing 82 ppg; Lobos are #63 experience team playing pace #50- they?ve forced turnovers 24.9% of time, but are shooting only 42.1% inside arc. Last 2+ years, MVC road underdogs are 6-4 vs spread when visiting a Mountain West team. MW home favorites are 13-5 vs spread; MVC road underdogs are 2-3.
Nebraska is 5-2 vs schedule #277, losing both top 100 games they played, by 23-9 points, while scoring less than 60 points. Cornhuskers haven?t beaten a team ranked in top 200. Boston College is 5-2, losing its only true road game by 20 at Providence; they also lost by 11 to Texas Tech. Eagles are #257 experience team that played schedule #293- best team they?ve beaten is #129 LaSalle. Big 14 home favorites are 18-9 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 3-7. Big 14 favorites are 3-0 vs spread when playing an ACC team this year.
Minnesota is 7-0 after weird game with Alabama, when Tide played last 10:41 with three guys. Gophers also won by 12 at Providence, and beat five stiffs- they?ve played schedule #276. Miami is 5-0 vs schedule #342- they?re #295 experience team. Hurricanes forced turnovers 23.4% of time, have #1 eFG% defense in country, but they?re stepping up in competition tonight. Big 14 favorites are 3-0 vs spread when playing an ACC team this year. Big 14 home favorites are 18-9 against the spread; ACC underdogs are 3-7.
Duke is 8-0 after winning PK80 event over weekend, when they trailed by double digits in second half of last two games, vs Texas/Florida. Blue Devils are rebounding 43.2% of their missed shots (#1 in country). Indiana is 4-2 vs schedule #324, losing by 21 to Indiana State, 16 at /Seton Hall. Hoosier opponents are shooting 44.8% behind arc, red flag with Duke coming to town. ACC favorites are 16-8 vs spread away from home; Big 14 underdogs are 2-10. ACC favorites are 4-0-2 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent this season.
Buffalo won 76-66 at Niagara LY, outscoring Purple Eagles 15-3 over last 4:06. Bulls are 3-2 after losing 2 of 3 games on Cayman Islands, with only win over UAB in OT- they lost to Cincy, South Dakota State. Niagara lost four of its last six games after opening season with an upset win at St Bonaventure. Eagles are #96 experience team but aren?t defending well (#308 eFG% defense). Last 2+ years, MAAC teams are 6-5 vs spread when facing a MAC opponent. MAC favorites are 4-3 vs spread away from home; MAAC underdogs are 16-13.
Tennessee is 4-1 after beating Purdue/NC State on Atlantis; couple of their starters got banged up down there, but both played 22:00 in last game on Friday. Vols are forcing turnovers 25.5% of time, will be tested by gritty Mercer team that is 3-2 vs D-I teams, losing both its top 100 games, by nine points each. Bears protect ball well and play slowish pace; they?re #11 experience team in country. Last 2+ years, OVC teams are 14-11 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. SEC home favorites are 6-10 vs spread; OVC road underdogs are 11-12.
Wyoming beat Denver the last three years, by 12-16-26 points. Wyoming is 5-1, with only loss by 25 to Cincinnati in finals of Cayman Islands tourney. Cowboys are #27 experience team playing pace #87- they?ve turned ball over 22.4% of time. Denver is 1-4 vs D-I teams, with losses in its top 200 games, by 27-8-8 points. Pioneers are starting two sophs, two seniors- they were in Florida over the weekend. Last 2+ years, MVC dogs are 8-4 vs spread when playing a Mountain West team. MW favorites are 7-4 vs spread away from home; MVC home teams are 8-4.
Belmont is 4-3 vs schedule #123, with losses by 4-1-8 points; Bruins are #248 experience team that has beaten Vandy/Middle Tennessee this year. TCU is 6-0 after winning couple games in Florida over weekend; Horned Frogs are #93 experience team- they?re making 39.8% of their 3?s, 58.1% of their 2?s- they get good shots. Belmont will be 2nd-best team they?ve played so far (St Bonaventure). Last 2+ years, Big X teams are 5-2-1 vs spread when playing an OVC opponent. Big X home favorites are 12-5 vs spread; OVC road underdogs are 11-12.