NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, December 3
Alabama is 6-1 despite being 6th-least experienced team in country; Crimson Tide has played schedule #130 so far, with wins over Tex-Arlington, BYU, Louisiana Tech- their only loss was by 5 to Minnesota, when they played last 10:41 with three guys (seriously). Central Florida?s best player Taylor (hand) is still hurt; Knights lost their last three games by 38-3-3 points, scoring 49 ppg- they?re turning ball over 24.3% of time, shooting just 23.8% on arc, really bad numbers. This is UCF?s first true road game this season.
Mississippi State is 6-0 vs schedule #345; best team they?ve played is #125 Jacksonville State. Bulldogs haven?t left home yet; they?ve got #18 eFG% defense in country, forcing turnovers 22.1% of time. State is shooting only 29.4% on arc; they?re #333 experience team in country. Dayton has new coach, is experience team #285; Flyers split their first six games, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 8 to Old Dominion, 13 to Auburn- this is their first true road game. Dayton is playing pace #323, very slow; Miss State is playing pace #112, much faster.
Vanderbilt is struggling at 3-4, having played schedule #34; Commodores are #130 experience team, but they?re 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 4-26-13 points, scoring 63.3 ppg. Vandy is shooting only 29.6% behind arc- they?re in bottom 15 in country at forcing turnovers. This is first true road game for Kansas State squad that is 6-1 vs schedule #343- they lost 92-90 to Arizona State (#58), only team they?ve played ranked above #182. Wildcats force turnovers 24.8% of time, but Vandy is by far 2nd-best team they?ve played this season.
First true road game for veteran Seton Hall (#84 experience team) that is 6-1, with only loss by a point to Rhode Island on neutral floor in Brooklyn. Pirates have three top 100 wins, beating Indiana by 16, Vandy by 13 and then-unbeaten Texas Tech by 10. Seton Hall has played schedule #124. Louisville is 4-1 after losing 66-57 at Purdue Tuesday; none of their four wins were against teams ranked higher than #130 (schedule #243). Cardinals obviously have a new coach; they have #6 eFG% defense so far, but haven?t shot ball well (33.3% behind arc).
Purdue won its last four games with Northwestern, by 8-10-21-4 points; Wildcats lost five of their last six visits to West Lafayette, losing last two visits here by 10-21 points. Northwestern is 5-3 after beating Illinois in OT in its Big 14 opener; Wildcats are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 1-4-36 points. Last four years, Wildcats are 17-13 vs spread as big 14 road underdogs. Purdue is 7-2 vs schedule #47; Boilermakers won last three games, all vs teams ranked #33 or better. Purdue is #46 experience team whose eFG% defense is 21st in country.
Michigan State swept Nebraska LY by 11-16 points, after losing previous three games against the Cornhuskers, who won two of last three visits to East Lansing. Nebraska won its last three games; this is their conference opener. Last three years, Huskers are 9-14-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Michigan State won its last five games, waxing North Carolina by 18, Notre Dame by 16 in their last two. Over the last two years, State is 13-2-1 vs spread as a Big 14 home favorite. Spartans are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with all three wins by 22+ points.
Stanford lost four of its last five games, beating Montana last time out; this is first true road game for Cardinal squad that is 4-2 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with all four wins by 9+ points. Stanford is #304 experience team that is turning ball over 21.7% of time. Long Beach State lost six of its last seven games, losing last two games by 35-36 points to Arizona, Fresno State. 49ers have played schedule #6- the buy games they play on road help pay Monson?s over-inflated salary. Teams are shooting 55.7 inside arc against the 49ers.
Tennessee held Georgia Tech to 28.6% inside arc LY in 81-58 home win (Vols were up 19 at half). Tennessee is 5-1 this year, with only loss by 9 to Villanova on a neutral floor- this is their first true road game. Georgia Tech lost last game to Grambling, snapping a 63-game (21-year) losing streak for Tigers against Power 5 teams. Tech?s last two games were both decided by a point; they?re 4-2 so far, 1-1 vs top 100 teams, losing to UCLA by 3 in China, beating Northwestern by 1 at home. Tennessee is forcing turnovers 26.3% of time (#9).
Bradley is 7-1 this year vs schedule #282, after being 39-91 the last four years; Braves have #7 eFG% defense in country, forcing 20.5 turnovers/game, holding foes to 25.2% from arc- they split pair of games vs top 100 opponents, losing to Vermont by a point, beating Georgia Southern by 4- that was GSU?s first loss. San Diego State is 7-2 vs schedule #208; Aztecs are playing tempo #47- both their losses are to Pac-12 teams, Wazzu/Arizona State. State is #223 experience team that still plays good defense- their eFG% defense is #47 in country.
Minnesota is 4-1 vs Rutgers in Big 14 play, winning two meetings here, by 9-22 points; Gophers are 7-1 this season, losing last game to Miami at home Wednesday- they?re 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with all five wins by 15+ points. Under Pitino, Minnesota is 8-5 vs spread when a Big 14 home favorite. This is first road game for Rutgers after a 7-1 start vs schedule #349; Scarlet Knights lost by 5 at home to Florida State, only they?ve played in top 250. Rutgers hasn?t been good on offense; they?re shooting 28.4% on arc, 63.2% on foul line.
Maryland won its last three games wth Illinois, by 26-25-6 points; they split last four visits here. Terrapins lost three of last four games, losing Big 14 opener by 5 at home to Purdue; Terps are 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with all four wins by 15+ points. Last two years, they?re 3-4-1 vs spread as a Big 14 road favorite. Illini lost their last two games after a 6-2 start, losing to only top 100 teams they?ve played, Wake Forest by 7, Northwestern by 4 in OT. Illinois is 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as a Big 14 home underdog- they?re forcing turnovers 24% of time.
George Washington was 9-18 on arc in 66-63 win at Temple LY; Colonials are 3-4 this season, with all three wins vs MEAC teams ranked #292 or worse. GW is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-19-8 points- they?re #199 experience team, and are shooting only 29.9% behind arc. Temple is 4-1 this season, with only loss by 4 at crosstown rival LaSalle. Owls are 4-1 vs schedule #5, with wins over Clemson/Auburn/South Carolina- they allowed average of 64.8 ppg in their four wins, 87 in their loss. Temple starts two juniors, two seniors.
Jacksonville State lost 81-77 at Samford LY, outscored 19-8 on foul line. JSU is 5-2 this season, 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with wins by 33-15-2-8 points. Gamecocks are playing #28 pace- they?re #55 experience team, starting two juniors, two seniors. Samford is 2-5, with its two wins vs teams in bottom 10 of country; they?ve lost to four top 100 teams, by 39-19-21-21 points. Bulldogs are #7 experience team that has over-scheduled; they haven?t played in a week.
