Cold weather stats

[Valuist]

No excuse for betting any of the warm weather teams after November 1 when they travel to cold weather sites. I went back from 1995 thru 2001 and checked how the teams from Calif, Florida, Arizona and Louisiana fared. I didn't count Dallas, since they get some cold weather there. The teams considered to be cold weather venues are: Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City, New England, NY Jets, NY Giants, Philly, Pittsburgh and Washington. The others are either neutral or domes. Numbers are all ATS:

Arizona 6-11
Jacksonville 9-8
Miami 4-12
New Orleans 3-3
Oakland 4-10
San Diego 5-9
San Fran 2-8
Tampa Bay 6-10

composite: 39-71 35.5% win %; or 64.5% fading them.

 

[kbyoda]

That is some excellent info Valuist...Thank you!

Makes you wonder about that Miami/Jets game w/ Miami favored by 1

 

[pacerfan]

I guess the weather is always warm inside the Superdome...

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Valuist:

Great work.

I have a question.

Did you run these numbers for ALL games played after 11-1 ? Or, did you use a qualifier -- such as must be below X degrees? For instance, if there's a Nov. 2nd game in Washington and the weather is 62 degrees, was this game counted in the results?

What is really astonidhing about these results is that in MOST cases we would be backing the home facorites -- which at 64 percent covers is almost unheard of.

You have really uncovered something that may be useful.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Valuist]

Nolan--

It was all games after Nov. 1. I didn't have access to gametime temps so I had to generalize. But Nov 1 seems to be a good cut-off date; I realize there's exceptions: Tampa Bay played up here in Chicago a couple years ago after T-Giving and it was 55 degrees and they spanked the Bears. Sportsline.com's Gamebook has game time weather conditions but you can't go back to previous seasons.

 

[djv]

And lets not forget how the cold weather teams starting this week that go south. Like GBay to T Bay, Miami Or Arz. Forget Calf being to hot this time of year. Believe Jacksonville another hot spot. Minn looked out of gas this past weekend. Guys sucking air and water like grazy on sidelines. Just another thought.

 

[Valuist]

DJV-

I think its easier at to go into Tampa, Miami or Phoenix and play than the other way around. No excuse for dehydration. As long as the players are hydrated, they should have no problems. I'm no doctor, but I believe the body is affected more going into the cold. Probably takes 4-5 days to fully adjust to it. Its tougher to get (and stay) loose; circulation isn't as good.

Kyboda-

Mia/Jets qualifies as does Oakland/Denver.

 

[bej0101]

great info thanks..by the way if the weather is say above 50 degrees in the north would you say that it would nulify an across the board bet?

 

[kbyoda]

Valuist.

I just made a printout of your post so I can keep it by my desk! I really think these #'s are sound will help make me a profit the rest of the season! This is one of the best ATS I have seen on this site...thank you again

Only problem is the one and only play I have made for this week goes AGAINST this system and I am hoping that 2 points I can make will "validate" my reasoning. :shrug:


1) It isnt that cold yet here in the East Coast as opposed to 4-6 weeks from now..night game...but still not terrible
2) Miami is NOW a running team as opposed to a pass attack, and I think that gives them a better shot of winning in a cold weather game...

Anyhow, I know you said "no exuses" but other factors come into play in this Miami game I cant help but calculate...as in any game I guess. Just curious, would you NEVER bet against this info you dug up? If you really liked a game like I do, would you than consider it a pass or just take the info for what it is and factor it in?

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Valuist:

You really deserve a lot of credit for your work. So, please forgive the additions here. You have prompted me to investigate this further......

1. You really need to add Atlanta to this chart, since this is a Southern team and the "body has difficulty acclamating theory" should apply to this team, as well.

2. We could also make a case that the northern (actually ALL) dome teams should be included in this stream of results, although you could argue that the players in MN, DET, INDY, etc. are "used to" the cold by virtue of living and working in cold environments.

3. I wanted more data, so I tracked this back ANOTHER THREE YEARS.

____

My findings are as follows:

1. ATLANTA was 0-5 in northern outdoor games from 1995-01, post 11-1. Add this to your results and you now have a 76-39 record.

2. DOME TEAMS 1995-01 results (includes playoff games):

ATL 0-5
DET 5-9 (previous dome)
IND 8-10
MIN 5-7
NOR N/A (already included in results run by Valuist)
STL 5-5

TOTAL: 23-36 FOR ALL DOME TEAMS, except NOR

3. 1992-94 RESULTS (adding to Valuist's previous work)
Includes all warm weather cities and dome teams:

ARZ 1-2
ATL 2-3
DET 4-3
IND 5-5
JAX Exp
MIA 1-3
MIN 3-4
NOR 2-2
LA RAMS 0-3
SDI 4-0
TAM 4-0 (???? -- must not have been below freezing)

THREE YEAR RESULTS: 27-25

CONCLUSIONS (open to discussion)

1. Atlanta MUST be inlcuded in this sample.
2. Dome teams probably should be included in the sample.
3. The angle seems to apply to both good teams and bad teams -- MIA (usually a good team) does poorly in cold weather. There are other examples.
4. I can't explain why the Chargers and Bucs went 8-0 combined in cold weather cities from 1992 to 1994. Perhaps is just a statistical deviation.

If we add these numbers to Valuist's previous work, we now get:

50-65 (my additions)
39-71 (Valuist research)
COMBINED (betting against these teams): 136-89 (61 percent)

***This is s slight decline in overall results (percantage win), but makes the THEORY stronger by virtue of more trials.

(NOTE: I did not include ties in any of the numbers above)

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[dr. freeze]

great work boys....thanks a lot

 

[GM]

Good work guys.

Nolan - Seattle was a dome team prior to last season too.

 

[Valuist]

Nolan-

Strongly disagree on counting the Northern dome teams (Minny, Det). First, these players are living their everyday lives in the cold environment so their bodies have had time to acclimate. Also, I believe the Vikings practice outside and the Lions may also. Question for you (or any of the Texas posters): should Dallas be counted among the warm weather teams? I thought they had some cold weather down there; obviously not like Green Bay or Buffalo but I thought sub-freezing weather was not uncommon in Dec or Jan there. Atlanta is a possibility, although I thought they had some cold weather there also. I seem to remember them having a bad ice storm during Super Bowl week a few years ago.

 

[Valuist]

Dr. Freeze--

Aren't you a med student? In your opinion, what would cause this? Does the blood change? I know when the cold weather hits, I feel tired and lazy for a few days. These stats show their definitely is a correlation to going into the cold and a performance fall-off.

 

[vanbasten]

looks like the rest of the season, we have 15 scenerio's that fall into the above category ( i did this yesterday based on the original teams valuist listed. sorry nolan, but did it before i saw your post. i also included houston, for who we have no past track record, but should be included? yes? no? sorry, not familiar with texas climate, just figure houston is hot). discount it if should not be included.

week 10

miami @ nyj
oakland @ denver

week 11

az @ philly

week 12

none

week 13

az @ kc
miami @ buffalo

week 14

houston @ pitt
no @ balt

week 15

jax @ cinn
sd @ buff

week 16

no @ cinn
sd @ kc
hou @ wash

week 17

az @ den
miami @ ne
tb @ chic

of the teams listed number of games follows for each:

miami - 3
az - 3
no - 2
sd - 2
hou - 2
tb - 1
oak - 1
jax - 1
sf - 0 - lucky san fran

let me know if i missed something.

 

[Valuist]

Definitely agree Houston should be counted. I just didn't mention them since I was focusing on the results from 1995-2001.

 

[bej0101]

being from the n/e i would have to say that living your everyday life in the cold helps acclimate you to the cold weather conditions..i would say that dome teams from the colder climates are not adversly affected the way the warmer city teams are when playing in the cold unless they practice indoors when its cold outside.

 

[TheShrimp]

One wonders if the cold is a direct cause of the poor ATS performance or if the teams are simply worn down after playing/practicing in the warm weather for august-october.

If it is the LATTER, that would be reflected in something like the warm weather team's preformance at, say, minnesota. That is, you would still expect poor ATS performance even though its inside. Also, a temperate place like SD would show average ATS performance. Keep in mind that SD and LA are much more reasonble temperature-wise in the summer and fall than even DC and Baltimore, and certainly moreso than zona, atl, no, etc.

That would also explain why the dome teams that Nolan looked at (see the list below which I pasted) weren't as bad ATS as the pure southern teams. One could argue that ATL should be on the southern list but that det, ind, min, stl shouldn't be on Nolan's list.

2. DOME TEAMS 1995-01 results (includes playoff games):

ATL 0-5 [keep 'em]
DET 5-9 (previous dome) [drop 'em]
IND 8-10 [drop 'em]
MIN 5-7 [drop em]
NOR N/A (already included in results run by Valuist)
STL 5-5 [drop 'em]


---
One thing I can add is what most anyone here that runs knows: the first couple of times you go out running when it starts getting cold out, your lungs are shot. They feel like they're smaller and freezing and not getting oxygen and it takes a week of running in the cold before you start to get used to it.

 

[baby johnson]

being from milwaukee I totally agree with "runnin in the cold" theory. It has to take its toll on everyone from the heat

 

[Nolan Dalla]

It appears we have different interpretations of the data. Here are more thoughts:

1. Dallas should be neutral. It is not a city like Miami or Houston or San Diego -- because it does get very cold at times and snows on occasion. Keep Dallas out of the system.

2. Houston is a no-brainer. It SHOULD be included (I had forgotten about this team). It's hot and humid muchof the time in Houston, so it clearly belongs in the group.

3. I agree with Valuist that the Northern Dome teams are not as strong, and therefore we should not give them the same weight as, say Miami. However, I don;t think they should be thrown out -- since we have many trials and there is obviously an edge to going against these teams when playing outdoors later in the season. The results speak for themselves. According to Valuist's theory (body has trouble adjusting to cold) the dome teams would fit this marginally. Therefore, in the case of ACROSS THE BOARD WAGERING I propose betting the teams on Valuist's list with a full unit (I would add Atlanta and Houston to this list), then I would wager only a half unit against the Dome teams. That's an oversimplistic approach, but I don't think the Northern Dome teams should be totally dismissed since they went a dismal 23-36 ATS (61 percent).

Nolan Dalla