Coming off of back to back winning weeks and now 9-5 the last two weeks, hopefully the positive momentum will continue this weekend, after a sluggish start to the season.
Home team in caps.
FLORIDA ST -7 Miami
Pretty simple math here. These two have played the same schedule strength and FSU has the better numbers by far. I rate teams into specific groups for their offense, defense and over all team rating. The offenses rate as both average offenses, with FSU averaging 6.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.7 yppl and Miami averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl. The big difference is on defense, where I rate FSU as a top defense, which is allowing just 3.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl, while Miami rates as just average, allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The mistakes Miami has made were forgiven when they were playing inferior competition but they will pay for those mistakes against a solid FSU team. FSU has allowed seven or less points in each of their last two wins and that sets them up in a 41-15 situation this week. That same situation played on Michigan over ND earlier this year in their 38-0 victory. Value, better numbers on offense and defense and the same schedule strength combined with a solid situation make FSU the play here. FLORIDA STATE 31 MIAMI 17
MARYLAND -27 Duke
This one should be a route. Maryland's Ralph Friedgen is now 12-1 as a home favorite and is 5-0 as a home favorite of -20 or more. In those five games, his teams have scored a minimum of at least 44 points in each game and never allowed more than 17 points in any of those games. That gets us the 27 point win by default. For Duke, since 1988, they are just 5-18 ats when on the road and allowing 44 or more points and just 2-17 ats when getting 28 or less points. No reason to think a Duke offense can muster any points in this game. They are averaging just 11 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game and didn't score against Virginia and only scored 7 points against Florida State in their only two games against decent competition. And in those two games against good competition, they lost 0-27 and 7-56. I don't see much changing here. Duke is coming off of four straight home games and that does not bode well for them here. They qualify in a negative 55-27-2 situation based on that. My numbers suggest Maryland wins this game by around 35 to 42 points and with the situation, value and head coach who has showed a propensity to cover these games, they are a solid play. MARYLAND 41 DUKE 7
VANDERBILT -5 Navy
One thing you don't want to be doing is laying points with a team who simply doesn't cover the spread when doing so. Vandy is now 0-6 ats when laying less than 10 points at home. You would have to go all the way back to 1997 to find the last time they covered in this situation. For Navy, we have just the opposite. They are now 38-19 since 1988 when installed as a road dog, including 7-4 as a road dog of less than 10 points. Vandy has played the tougher schedule here so it's a little tougher to compare the numbers but the favorable match up for Navy comes with their running attack, which is averaging 4.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr, while Vandy is allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Navy lost badly two weeks ago to Rutgers but that score was a little deceiving because they had two field goal attempts blocked, including one returned for a touchdown. With their running game going strong, Navy qualifies in a 109-64-2 fundamental rushing situation, which plays on teams who can run the ball better than their opponent and stop the run better. Final numbers support Navy as well and they are a live dog here. NAVY 26 VANDERBILT 20
COLORADO -6.5 Kansas
Kansas lost a little value with this play by Colorado's debacle last week. But, the fact still remains, the Colorado defense is giving up huge numbers this year. They are now allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.6 yppl and that should play right into the hands of a very balanced Kansas offense, that is averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.6 yppl. Colorado has played the tougher schedule so the numbers might not be quite as significant but they have still given up 40+ points in each of their last three games. Meanwhile, Kansas has scored at least 35 points in four straight games, including against a UNLV defense that is playing very well this year. When teams can average more than 4.0 yards per rush and face teams who allow 4.0 or more per rush, that doesn't bode well for the favorite. And Kansas qualifies in a situation based on that premise that is 70-32-1. Colorado lost last week and they qualify in a negative momentum situation that is an 86-34-1 play against them here. Final numbers also favor Kansas to win this game straight up. KANSAS 37 COLORADO 33
AIR FORCE -7 UNLV
Another intriguing match up this weekend with the strong rushing offense of AF going up against the strong rushing defense of UNLV. AF is averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.0 ypr and UNLV is allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. UNLV has held four of their five opponents under their season average for yards per rush and they should do it again here. I talk about match up stats in my book, The Unemotional Football Bettor, and UNLV is a perfect example here. I rate teams into groups based on their offense, defense and over all team ratings. When teams are a dog, have a better rating on defense and have played the tougher schedule, they are tough to beat. And when they sport a top notch defense, as UNLV does (I rate them as above average) and they are a dog, it's even better. AF also lost last week as a favorite and they qualify in a negative momentum situation, which is an 86-34-1 play against AF here. Final numbers also support UNLV here as I have them winning this game straight up by about one point. UNLV 23 AIR FORCE 21
TEXAS TECH -15.5 Iowa St
Hard to believe TT won't get at least 42 points in this game and if they do, that's not good for Iowa State who is just 2-17-1 when allowing 42 or more points on the road since 1988. And when you're allowing 9.2 yps against teams averaging 7.6 yps, that's not good, because TT is averaging 9.1 yps against 8.1 yps. Even if TT has a big lead, all they do is pass, so they will keep pouring it on. Iowa State has played the tougher schedule but I don't think it'll matter too much here. Iowa State can throw the ball a little and against a below average TT pass defense, they will get their share of points but everyone does against TT and it still doesn't seem to matter when they are facing inferior competition. TT's huge win last week sets them up nicely in a 122-49-3 home momentum situation. My numbers don't favor TT here because of the easier schedule but they still favor them by about 10 points and the situation that favors them is worth about 6.5 points and is 4-0 this year, with an average cover of about 12 points. TT is 15-1-2 ats when scoring at least 42 points at home as a favorite, including 8-0-2 as a favorite of more than 10 points. TEXAS TECH 52 IOWA STATE 31
UTAH -9.5 SD State
Bottom line in this game is we have two teams who have played equally tough schedules and have very, very similar numbers. So, why is Utah almost a 10 point favorite and the line is rising back up again? Very simple. Utah beat Oregon on National television last week while SD State lost to BYU, who just got destroyed last night on National television. But that's all fine and well for a SD State team who is averaging 4.4 yppl against 4.5 yppl (Utah is averaging 4.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl) and is allowing 4.3 yppl against 4.6 yppl (Utah is allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.6 yppl). SD State also got back Adam Hall last week and their offense should begin to step up as it did last week when they gained 392 yards at 5.7 yppl, including 352 yards passing at 10.1 yps. In my book I talk about teams rated even, played the tougher schedule and getting double digits as being great plays. If this number goes to +10, they become a play under that scenario. They also lost as a home favorite last week and that sets them up in a 81-42-0 situation that won with Kansas State and Mississippi last week. Final numbers only favor Utah by about 6 or 7 points, giving us some added value on SD State, and the situation favors SD State as well. UTAH 24 SD STATE 21
YTD 13-16-1 -12.00%
2% S CAROLINA -7.5 (THUR)
2% FLORIDA STATE -7
2% MARYLAND -27
2% NAVY +5
2% KANSAS +6.5
2% UNLV +7
2% TEXAS TECH -15.5
2% SAN DIEGO STATE +9.5
2% TULSA +22
Home team in caps.
FLORIDA ST -7 Miami
Pretty simple math here. These two have played the same schedule strength and FSU has the better numbers by far. I rate teams into specific groups for their offense, defense and over all team rating. The offenses rate as both average offenses, with FSU averaging 6.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.7 yppl and Miami averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl. The big difference is on defense, where I rate FSU as a top defense, which is allowing just 3.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl, while Miami rates as just average, allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The mistakes Miami has made were forgiven when they were playing inferior competition but they will pay for those mistakes against a solid FSU team. FSU has allowed seven or less points in each of their last two wins and that sets them up in a 41-15 situation this week. That same situation played on Michigan over ND earlier this year in their 38-0 victory. Value, better numbers on offense and defense and the same schedule strength combined with a solid situation make FSU the play here. FLORIDA STATE 31 MIAMI 17
MARYLAND -27 Duke
This one should be a route. Maryland's Ralph Friedgen is now 12-1 as a home favorite and is 5-0 as a home favorite of -20 or more. In those five games, his teams have scored a minimum of at least 44 points in each game and never allowed more than 17 points in any of those games. That gets us the 27 point win by default. For Duke, since 1988, they are just 5-18 ats when on the road and allowing 44 or more points and just 2-17 ats when getting 28 or less points. No reason to think a Duke offense can muster any points in this game. They are averaging just 11 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game and didn't score against Virginia and only scored 7 points against Florida State in their only two games against decent competition. And in those two games against good competition, they lost 0-27 and 7-56. I don't see much changing here. Duke is coming off of four straight home games and that does not bode well for them here. They qualify in a negative 55-27-2 situation based on that. My numbers suggest Maryland wins this game by around 35 to 42 points and with the situation, value and head coach who has showed a propensity to cover these games, they are a solid play. MARYLAND 41 DUKE 7
VANDERBILT -5 Navy
One thing you don't want to be doing is laying points with a team who simply doesn't cover the spread when doing so. Vandy is now 0-6 ats when laying less than 10 points at home. You would have to go all the way back to 1997 to find the last time they covered in this situation. For Navy, we have just the opposite. They are now 38-19 since 1988 when installed as a road dog, including 7-4 as a road dog of less than 10 points. Vandy has played the tougher schedule here so it's a little tougher to compare the numbers but the favorable match up for Navy comes with their running attack, which is averaging 4.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr, while Vandy is allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Navy lost badly two weeks ago to Rutgers but that score was a little deceiving because they had two field goal attempts blocked, including one returned for a touchdown. With their running game going strong, Navy qualifies in a 109-64-2 fundamental rushing situation, which plays on teams who can run the ball better than their opponent and stop the run better. Final numbers support Navy as well and they are a live dog here. NAVY 26 VANDERBILT 20
COLORADO -6.5 Kansas
Kansas lost a little value with this play by Colorado's debacle last week. But, the fact still remains, the Colorado defense is giving up huge numbers this year. They are now allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.6 yppl and that should play right into the hands of a very balanced Kansas offense, that is averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.6 yppl. Colorado has played the tougher schedule so the numbers might not be quite as significant but they have still given up 40+ points in each of their last three games. Meanwhile, Kansas has scored at least 35 points in four straight games, including against a UNLV defense that is playing very well this year. When teams can average more than 4.0 yards per rush and face teams who allow 4.0 or more per rush, that doesn't bode well for the favorite. And Kansas qualifies in a situation based on that premise that is 70-32-1. Colorado lost last week and they qualify in a negative momentum situation that is an 86-34-1 play against them here. Final numbers also favor Kansas to win this game straight up. KANSAS 37 COLORADO 33
AIR FORCE -7 UNLV
Another intriguing match up this weekend with the strong rushing offense of AF going up against the strong rushing defense of UNLV. AF is averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.0 ypr and UNLV is allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. UNLV has held four of their five opponents under their season average for yards per rush and they should do it again here. I talk about match up stats in my book, The Unemotional Football Bettor, and UNLV is a perfect example here. I rate teams into groups based on their offense, defense and over all team ratings. When teams are a dog, have a better rating on defense and have played the tougher schedule, they are tough to beat. And when they sport a top notch defense, as UNLV does (I rate them as above average) and they are a dog, it's even better. AF also lost last week as a favorite and they qualify in a negative momentum situation, which is an 86-34-1 play against AF here. Final numbers also support UNLV here as I have them winning this game straight up by about one point. UNLV 23 AIR FORCE 21
TEXAS TECH -15.5 Iowa St
Hard to believe TT won't get at least 42 points in this game and if they do, that's not good for Iowa State who is just 2-17-1 when allowing 42 or more points on the road since 1988. And when you're allowing 9.2 yps against teams averaging 7.6 yps, that's not good, because TT is averaging 9.1 yps against 8.1 yps. Even if TT has a big lead, all they do is pass, so they will keep pouring it on. Iowa State has played the tougher schedule but I don't think it'll matter too much here. Iowa State can throw the ball a little and against a below average TT pass defense, they will get their share of points but everyone does against TT and it still doesn't seem to matter when they are facing inferior competition. TT's huge win last week sets them up nicely in a 122-49-3 home momentum situation. My numbers don't favor TT here because of the easier schedule but they still favor them by about 10 points and the situation that favors them is worth about 6.5 points and is 4-0 this year, with an average cover of about 12 points. TT is 15-1-2 ats when scoring at least 42 points at home as a favorite, including 8-0-2 as a favorite of more than 10 points. TEXAS TECH 52 IOWA STATE 31
UTAH -9.5 SD State
Bottom line in this game is we have two teams who have played equally tough schedules and have very, very similar numbers. So, why is Utah almost a 10 point favorite and the line is rising back up again? Very simple. Utah beat Oregon on National television last week while SD State lost to BYU, who just got destroyed last night on National television. But that's all fine and well for a SD State team who is averaging 4.4 yppl against 4.5 yppl (Utah is averaging 4.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl) and is allowing 4.3 yppl against 4.6 yppl (Utah is allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.6 yppl). SD State also got back Adam Hall last week and their offense should begin to step up as it did last week when they gained 392 yards at 5.7 yppl, including 352 yards passing at 10.1 yps. In my book I talk about teams rated even, played the tougher schedule and getting double digits as being great plays. If this number goes to +10, they become a play under that scenario. They also lost as a home favorite last week and that sets them up in a 81-42-0 situation that won with Kansas State and Mississippi last week. Final numbers only favor Utah by about 6 or 7 points, giving us some added value on SD State, and the situation favors SD State as well. UTAH 24 SD STATE 21
YTD 13-16-1 -12.00%
2% S CAROLINA -7.5 (THUR)
2% FLORIDA STATE -7
2% MARYLAND -27
2% NAVY +5
2% KANSAS +6.5
2% UNLV +7
2% TEXAS TECH -15.5
2% SAN DIEGO STATE +9.5
2% TULSA +22
