College Ball Regionals

Mr. Poon

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Lines aren?t out yet, but ?futures? on the regionals are. A quick note is that I believe the Regional and Super Regional hosts will likely advance at a higher rate than they have in past years. Outside of the LA Regional hosted by UCLA, every other host will have a pretty raucous crowd. With the new bats this year that have lead to considerably less scoring and therefore closer games, I expect some tight contests that nerves of visitors and the home crowd should play a factor in. Some 2 or 3 seeds that elect to save their ace for the second game when they may play the #1 seed still have a shot, I just don?t believe there will be many shocking upsets.

Just going with one future at this point:

Zona +385 (to win College Station regional) for 1/2 un it ? Zona?s top 2 starters of Heyer and Simon may not be the best starting tandem in the country, but they definitely give the Wildcats a chance against anyone they will face. Looking at the 3 and 4 seeds in the regional briefly, Hall gets in on their Big East tourney win, but just doesn?t have the offense to win against the deep pitching of Zona and A&M. Wright St. has a decent offense but their pitching staff is not good enough to get them multiple wins. Now A&M is without their ace John Stilson but still has a pretty deep staff and some starters in Wacha and Stripling that will allow them to be in any game they play. However, Zona?s offense is noticeably better than the Aggies and lined up one-on-one, Heyer and Simon edge out Wacha and Stripling. Should be one of the more interesting regionals and whomever wins, I like their chances of going to Omaha (would be paired against FSU in the Super Regionals).

gl guys
 

OAKAS

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Hey Poon.

I know you are a college baseball guru.

What is your opinion about a Arkansas future making it out of their regional.

Thanks Poon.
 

Mr. Poon

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What is your opinion about a Arkansas future making it out of their regional.

as evidenced by many thinking they should have been a #1 seed, as well as their taking 2 of 3 from Fla earilier in the year, they definitely have the potential to advance. Their pitching is pretty even with the Sun Devils in my mind, however their offense is streaky. For what its worth, they are throwing their #2 guy tomorrow (Russel Fant) and saving their ace (DJ Baxendale) until the next game. Their coach is one of the best in the nation, who has a ton of post-season experience.

In the end I'm not entirely convinced they can make the next round as I think a story after the first weekend will be how well the Pac-10 performed. Will not surprise me to see 5 of the 16 teams in the supers be from the Pac-10. However, +250 is nice future price for a team with their pitching talent that should be in every game.

gl whatever you decide.
 

Mr. Poon

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For Friday:

Zona -240 (vs. Hall) for 1 unit ? per my future play it is obvious I think highly of Zona. They will be sending their ace, all-american Kurt Heyer to the mound to start (2.32 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; .248 OBA and 127 K?s in 124 IP). Hall hasn?t announced their pitcher, but I can only assume it is their #1 Joe DiRocco (1.68 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; .2078 OBA and 78 K?s in 112.2 IP). Though DiRocco?s stats are impressive, and he is a very good pitcher, it should be noted that Zona faced much tougher competition than the Pirates (SOS of 32 vs. 127). The pens are good for both clubs but the big advantage for Zona is their offense as they are solid pretty much top to bottom. I expect them to open this up early.

Oklahoma -185 (vs. Dallas Baptist) for ? unit ? Dallas Baptist is a good independent team that earned wins this season against the Sooners, A&M, Rice, TCU and Okie State. However, all of those were mid-week games with the exception of A&M. Oklahoma isn?t pulling any punches throwing their #1 guy in this game, Michael Rocha (1.79 ERA; 0.95 WHIP; .220 OBA and 79 K?s in 105.2 IP). Dallas Baptist?s strength is its hitting, but with Rocha and a good pen behind him, believe they will be handled easily. Dallas Baptists weakness is their pitching and although the Sooner bats were quiet the last 2 weekends, they have the potential to explode for some big numbers against a suspect pitching staff like this.

S. Miss -140 (vs. Miss St.) for 2 units ? both teams have good but not great offenses. S. Miss is throwing their #1 pitcher Seth McInnis (2.61 ERA; 1.30 WHIP; .254 OBA and 81 K?s in 89.2 IP), who clearly has the edge in starting pitchers. Bulldogs are throwing Louis Pollorena (4.44 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; .267 OBA and 31 K?s in 50.2 IP). Pollorena was a bullpen guy until the last three weekends of the regular season where he was promoted to the Friday night spot and got blistered. His line from those 3 starts (his only starts on the season were: 16.1 IP, 25 H?s, 16 R?s (all earned), 6 BB?s and 6 K?s. It should also be noted that the teams he faced were all squads that did not make even make the SEC conference tourney. In the SEC tourney Pollorena pitched 1.2 IP in relief against Florida. In that outing he gave up 3 H?s, 3 ER, 1 BB and 1 K. As shown by the recent performances I expect the Eagles to get to the Miss St. pen early and that is not a strength of theirs either.

GaTech/A. Peay Under 11.5 (+105) for 1 unit ? both teams have good offenses, but I think GaTech?s #1 pitcher Mark Pope shuts down the Governors pretty handily.

ASU/N. Mex Under 10.5 (+115) for 1 unit ? Lobo?s offense isn?t anything to get excited about. For instance in a recent 4 game set vs. the Sooners they tallied 2, 3, 3 and 2. Sun Devils staff is just as good if not better than Oklahoma?s. ASU will put up some runs, but believe the total stays in the single digits.

gl guys
 

rrc

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Fwiw...since 1999 only 13-192 teams that have lost game one have gone on to win their regional.

GL today.
 

Mr. Poon

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not a good day going 2-3 getting the Unders and missing the sides. Zona and S. Miss got blanked 4-0 and 3-0, while the Sooners blew a 1 run lead in the 9th and then lost in the 10th.
 

rrc

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Just read that Austin Peay didn't even pitch their #1 in beating Ga Tech...wow.
 

Mr. Poon

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Updated Record: 51-40 for +14.63 units

for today:

J. Madison/UNC Under 14.5 (-110) for 2 units - James Madison can pound out the runs as shown by the 11-7 slugfest yesterday. Also they have a below average pitching staff in which the 2 best guys threw yesterday. However, UNC saved their ace until today and has a deep, and reliable, pen that is ready to go.

gl guys
 

Mr. Poon

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Adding a small one:

Jacksonville -1.5 (vs. Manhattan) for 1/2 unit - think they are worth a shot on the run line.

Looking into the other games in a bit.

Gl guys
 

Mr. Poon

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sorry, no time for detailed write-ups but adding:

Arky -230 (vs. N. Mexico) for 1 unit

Oregon St. -220 (vs. Creighton) for 1 unit - Beavers throwing their ace today.

Baylor +200 (@ Rice) for 1/2 unit

gl guys
 

Mr. Poon

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and one last small dog:

Stetson +255 (@ S. Carolina) for 1/2 unit - tough to take down the champs at home, but Stetson showed a lot of resolve coming back against the Wolfpack. They are a team that was in a position to host a regional up until 2 weeks ago when they had a bit of a swoon. They have talent that if they get a few bounces that go their way, they could make this happen.

Gl guys
 

Mr. Poon

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good bounce back day going 5-2 missing the Stetson and Jacksonville plays. Jacksonville blew a 4-run lead in the last 2 innings to only win by 1, while Stetson got hammered. That Under play looked really good through 6, being a 4-0 game, and then UNC scores 7 in the 7th and 3 in the 9th, luckily James Madison had nothing losing 14-0.

Updated Record: 56-42 for +19.48 units
 
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