?11 Season Record: 75-66 for +13.65 units
?10 Season Record: 110-100 for +9.85 units
?09 Season Record: 69-56 for +17.85 units
So my MO the last few years has been to do pretty well during the season and then tank during the College World Series. We?ll see if that holds true again this season.
As a quick refresher, last year saw a big change in the college game with the new regulations on bats. It use to be that you would look towards and rely on power pitchers in the college game. Guys that if they gave up a double, could get out of a jam with 2 straight strikeouts. You looked for a decent underdog that had a quality pitcher going but maybe a shaky or inconsistent offense, that was capable of going off big against a marquee team?s pitcher. Those were the opportunities you tried to cash. Just didn?t seem like those came through much last year. Harder for a weak offense to go off for a big inning to help pull an upset. And it is much easier for pitchers with below average velocity to just pitch to the plate and let the ball be put in play and rely on defense. As with the pro game, to make a profit in college baseball you still need to find those dogs that will come through. Just tougher to do in my opinion.
Starting off this year with the following:
Stanford -155 (vs. Vandy) for 1 unit ? the marquee matchup this weekend as #10 Vandy travels out West to take on #2 Stanford. Stanford is a real solid club with maybe question marks only around their bullpen. They will start Junior Mark Appel on the mound tonight. Appel posted a 3.02 ERA last year and is being mentioned as the possible #1 overall draft choice, so he has quality stuff. Vandy is another good club with high expectations, but had to replace their entire weekend starters from last years? club. They have recruited well so the guys stepping in our talented, but just haven?t had much experience. This is a tough road test for them to start out the year and I just think Stanford starts out ahead in this series.
TCU -190 (vs. Ole Miss) for 1 unit ? another top 25 matchup here with #22 Ole Miss going to #15 TCU. TCU boasts the better bats and power in this one. Two sophomores face off as the starters, with Andrew Mitchell going for the Horned Frogs and Bobby Wahl for the Rebels. Both are highly rated and both had good summers, Mitchell w/ Team USA and Wahl in the Cape Cod league. Mitchell was TCU?s best and most consistent pitcher at the end of last season and is more proven. Similar to the Stanford play, I?m going to go with the pitcher that is a bit more battled tested and is at home.
Miss/TCU Under 10.5 (-120) for 1 unit ? good chance of rain, think it will be a close game staying under this number.
Not playing the other game that has a line on it, Fullerton @ Florida. Gators are a consensus #1 and are loaded at every position. They have a ton of talent on the mound and you just can?t find any weaknesses on paper. Fullerton looks to have to rebuild in more ways than one. They lost their coach and have some major question marks for pitching. If they are going to steal one, it would be this Friday game as their only proven pitcher Dylan Floro is on the mound tonight, and perhaps the Gators have some opening day jitters. I would actually like to see that happen, as it may make the lines for Saturday and Sunday not quite as steep. The pitching edges for the Gators on those day are off the charts and I would have no fear betting them at -300.
?10 Season Record: 110-100 for +9.85 units
?09 Season Record: 69-56 for +17.85 units
So my MO the last few years has been to do pretty well during the season and then tank during the College World Series. We?ll see if that holds true again this season.
As a quick refresher, last year saw a big change in the college game with the new regulations on bats. It use to be that you would look towards and rely on power pitchers in the college game. Guys that if they gave up a double, could get out of a jam with 2 straight strikeouts. You looked for a decent underdog that had a quality pitcher going but maybe a shaky or inconsistent offense, that was capable of going off big against a marquee team?s pitcher. Those were the opportunities you tried to cash. Just didn?t seem like those came through much last year. Harder for a weak offense to go off for a big inning to help pull an upset. And it is much easier for pitchers with below average velocity to just pitch to the plate and let the ball be put in play and rely on defense. As with the pro game, to make a profit in college baseball you still need to find those dogs that will come through. Just tougher to do in my opinion.
Starting off this year with the following:
Stanford -155 (vs. Vandy) for 1 unit ? the marquee matchup this weekend as #10 Vandy travels out West to take on #2 Stanford. Stanford is a real solid club with maybe question marks only around their bullpen. They will start Junior Mark Appel on the mound tonight. Appel posted a 3.02 ERA last year and is being mentioned as the possible #1 overall draft choice, so he has quality stuff. Vandy is another good club with high expectations, but had to replace their entire weekend starters from last years? club. They have recruited well so the guys stepping in our talented, but just haven?t had much experience. This is a tough road test for them to start out the year and I just think Stanford starts out ahead in this series.
TCU -190 (vs. Ole Miss) for 1 unit ? another top 25 matchup here with #22 Ole Miss going to #15 TCU. TCU boasts the better bats and power in this one. Two sophomores face off as the starters, with Andrew Mitchell going for the Horned Frogs and Bobby Wahl for the Rebels. Both are highly rated and both had good summers, Mitchell w/ Team USA and Wahl in the Cape Cod league. Mitchell was TCU?s best and most consistent pitcher at the end of last season and is more proven. Similar to the Stanford play, I?m going to go with the pitcher that is a bit more battled tested and is at home.
Miss/TCU Under 10.5 (-120) for 1 unit ? good chance of rain, think it will be a close game staying under this number.
Not playing the other game that has a line on it, Fullerton @ Florida. Gators are a consensus #1 and are loaded at every position. They have a ton of talent on the mound and you just can?t find any weaknesses on paper. Fullerton looks to have to rebuild in more ways than one. They lost their coach and have some major question marks for pitching. If they are going to steal one, it would be this Friday game as their only proven pitcher Dylan Floro is on the mound tonight, and perhaps the Gators have some opening day jitters. I would actually like to see that happen, as it may make the lines for Saturday and Sunday not quite as steep. The pitching edges for the Gators on those day are off the charts and I would have no fear betting them at -300.
