College Ball Week #15/Conference Tournaments

Mr. Poon

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YTD Record: 37-34 for +5.25 units

A very meager season thus far to go along with a considerably reduced amount of lined games in the second half of the regular season. Conference tournaments this week and weekend, and it is much the same as the conf. tournaments in basketball, some schools who are comfortable in their post-season stature will only put forth an average effort, while middle of the road clubs are fighting like heck to improve their seeding.

NC State +380 (vs. FSU) for ? unit ? Seminoles have a lot to play for as they are in the mix for a national seed, but they are throwing a Soph with just two starts on the season (& 16 relief outings) vs. the Wolfpack?s Ace, Junior Corey Mazzoni. Mazzoni on the year has a 3.61 ERA; 1.10 WHIP; .221 OBA and 116 K?s in 99.2 IP. FSU is saving their ace Sean Gilmartin and other decent pitcher Mike McGee for their games against higher rated Clemson and GaTech. Mazzoni pitched well in his outing earlier this year vs. FSU, giving up 1 ER, 6 H?s, and 2 BB?s with 8 K?s in 6 IP. Unfortunately he didn?t get the W, as the Wolfpack pen blew it for him. FSU has the better offense and can put up some runs, but the big edge in starting pitchers give NC State a real good shot at a big upset.

A&M -300 (vs. TX Tech) for 1 unit ? Aggies throwing their ace John Stilson against a spot starter/reliever from Texas Tech. I like the Aggies to win the Big XII tourney and think their first game won?t be much of an issue. Stilson has been one of the best ?under the radar? pitchers in college this year. He has compiled a 1.68 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .229 OBA and 92 K?s in 91.1 IP. Also he has only given up 1 dinger on the year.

Tourney Futures:

Vandy +500 for ? unit to win SEC ? yeah they have the defending champ in their pool, and a national seed (top 8 overall) is likely secured, but they stumbled a bit down the stretch and I believe they will be intent as anyone to win the conference title. They (alongside UVa and Florida) are one of the few complete teams in the nation.

Florida +175 for 1 unit to win Bracket 1 ? Arky is in this bracket and is their biggest threat. Despite losing 2 of 3 at Arky in the regular season, I think the Gators can handle them on a neutral field.

UVa +150 for 1 unit to win Pool A ? Hey, if I have a future bet on the other 2 of my top 3 teams in the country, might as well round out the three-some. Despite getting swept by UNC to close the regular season, the Cav?s are the cream of the conference and should make it to the championship round.

A&M +100 for 1 unit to win Division 2 ? as said earlier, I like them to win the tourney, but they have been snake-bitten vs. the Longhorns recently, so I?ll take the +100 for the division vs. +175 for the whole tourney.

gl guys
 

rrc

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Of the 8 games I have available today, four of them have lines over -450.

Thanks for the selections.
 

jbly99

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I love NC State tonight...lots of value there...was just in UNC last wknd and caught every inning of the Heels sweep of UVA. Just glad we are seeing lines again!
 

jbly99

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I also like Georgia +250 being that they are throwing there #1 who just pitched a complete game and won against Vandy last week while Vandy is throwing a mid-weeker and Oklahoma -1.75 since they r throwing Rocha tonight.
 

Dog lover

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Mr. Poon,
Be careful with Stilson. Went to the TX.- A&M game in Austin, Friday, with my Aggie nephews (great game). Both are avid baseball fans, and the one currently in grad school there says something is not quite right with Stilson. Could be fatigue or something else. He pitched ok vs. Tx. on Thursday, but not his best effort. It was the biggest game of the year for the Aggies (on their home field and they lost). GL on your plays.
 

Mr. Poon

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Just glad we are seeing lines again!

:0074 - my twitch has stopped suddenly.

Dog Lover - thanks for the info on Stilson. He didn't go today, and not sure why. With this win on A&M and the pool bet on them, I doubt I will go after them again. Good to have that info though if I am tempted.
 

Mr. Poon

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thanks rrc

2-0 on the night as NC State rolls 7-0 and A&M storms back from a 5-0 defecit to win 10-5.

Also each of the teams in my future bets won their game, so a good start there.

Updated Record: 39-34 for +8.15 units
 

jbly99

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Im on Miami today...would have been nice to get them at +165 last night but the greek took forever settling the NC State Game. Miami is throwing Radziewski 9-2 2.94 ERA Lefty and UNC is throwing Holt 7-1 2.90 ERA...while Holt is good he hasnt actually started a game all season. Also hoped on Texas -300 with Jungman on the mound 12-0 0.95 ERA.
 

Mr. Poon

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For today:

GaTech -140 (vs. NC State) for 3 units ? think the Yellow Jackets bounce back in a big way today. They have edges across the board in this game. Their #2 starter Jed Bradley is much better than his counterpart today from NC State, Rob Chamra.

Clemson +120 (vs. FSU) for 1/2 unit ? Seminoles have their ace Sean Gilmartin going who has really good stats on the year (1.35 EA; 0.83 WHIP; .187 OBA), however his stats don?t show that he has given up quite a few unearned runs, especially against better competition as of late. Clemson goes with their #2, Justin Sarratt, who is a decent pitcher himself (2.06 ERA; 0.97 WHIP; .221 OBA). Clemson has been real hot down the stretch and there is a good chance that continues tonight against a FSU club that has flaws despite its high ranking.

Vandy -110 (vs. S. Carolina) for 1 unit ? Two top 5 teams here, but taking advantage of a small line on Vandy?s #1 pitcher Sonny Gray (2.17 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; .193 OBA, 105 K?s in 95.1 IP) for Vandy. S. Carolina threw their ace last night and go with Frosh Forrest Koumas today (3.05 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; .234 OBA and 53 K?s in 59 IP).

gl guys
 

Mr. Poon

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Im on Miami today...would have been nice to get them at +165 last night but the greek took forever settling the NC State Game. Miami is throwing Radziewski 9-2 2.94 ERA Lefty and UNC is throwing Holt 7-1 2.90 ERA...while Holt is good he hasnt actually started a game all season. Also hoped on Texas -300 with Jungman on the mound 12-0 0.95 ERA.

nice 2-0 day. :toast:
 

Mr. Poon

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2-1 on the day only dropping the small Clemson play. GaTech was nerve racking squandering plenty of opportunities and playing into the 15th. They win it 6-5 on a steal of home in the top of the 15th.

Updated Record: 41-35 for +11.65 units
 

rrc

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Fell asleep in about the 13th. Was it a straight steal of home or the back end of a double steal?

Wish I would have seen it.

Keep up the good work..thanks for sharing.
 

jbly99

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After all the crazy line movements yesterday it looks like the books arent releasing any games...thegreek said they wont have anything today...all 5 dimes has is unc/wake and virginia/miami which just started
 

Mr. Poon

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rrc - it was a straight steal, 2 outs and the pitcher wasn't paying any attention to the runner on 3rd, no one else on. Left handed batter and the pitch was inside and the catcher didn't glove it cleanly and so there wasn't even a tag to make it close. My wife came running out of the bedroom I yelled so loud when it happened.
 

Mr. Poon

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For Saturday:

GaTech +135 (vs. FSU) for 1 unit ? The Yellow Jacket?s Buck Farmer is one of the best #3 pitchers in the nation (2.89 ERA; 1.17 WHP; .239 OBA and 89 K?s in 93.1 IP). He faces Mike McGee from FSU (5.10 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; .219 OBA and 33 K?s in 30 IP). McGee was touted coming into the season as potentially the best 2-way player in the nation. He?s put up the offensive #?s, but his pitching stats as shown have been lacking. This game was suppose to take place on Friday but getting pushed to Sat. helps Tech after that long game they played on Thursday night.

Creighton +105 (vs. Wichita St.) for ? unit ? two very similar clubs, both have average offenses and pretty good pitching staffs. Both have gone through their regular starters and will likely be throwing several guys to the mound tomorrow in a patch-work championship game. Shockers took 2-of-3 at home during the regular season. However, I?ll take the ?pseudo-home? team for a small dog play.

Will look at the Vandy/Akry and NC State/Clemson lines tomorrow when they are out.

gl guys
 

Mr. Poon

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adding a couple of small plays on big fav's:

Clemson -240 (vs. NC State) for 1/2 unit - their pitching is much more deep and with the better offense, should be able to cruise in this one.

Rice -230 (vs. Houston) for 1/2 unit - this line started in the 300's but has come down with people taking a chance on Houston. Another situation where the depth of the more talented team will come through this late in the conference tourney.

gl guys
 
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