College Ball Week #2

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 6-1 for +8.95 units

Week 1 was dominated by the fav?s for the games that had lines on them. Here?s hoping week 2 starts off with a dog:

Kansas St. +165 (@ Coastal) for 1 unit ? both squads have good bats and can put up the runs. Coastal, on paper at least, has better pitching overall and depth headed into this year. Difference is that they are deciding to start off this weekend tourney with their #4 starter saving ace Anthony Meo for their Friday matchup against ranked Cal. Soph Josh Conway will start for Coastal. Kansas State will go with their #1 Kyle Hunter for this matchup. Hunter isn?t a great pitcher, but he has the experience as a weekend starter and should be able to battle and give the Wildcats a chance in this one. Conway?s #?s from last year are better than Hunters, but you have to take into account Conway was a reliever and mid-week starter in a smaller conference, while Hunter was a weekend starter in a conference and had to face the likes of Texas and Oklahoma.

gl guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

sometimes its better to be lucky than good. Both starting pitchers dealt well. K-State was down 4-1 headed to the 8th when Coastal's defense cost them and the Wildcats put up a 4 spot to take the lead and the final score 5-4. All but one of K-State's runs were unearned as Coastal committed 4 errors on the day.

Updated Record: 7-1 for +10.6 units

 

[Mr. Poon]

for today:

UConn +105 (vs. OR State) for 4 units ? Huskies has really high expectations headed into this year but came away a disappointing 1-2 in the opening weekend against some average at best competition. They should bounce back this weekend and it starts against a down Oregon State squad. Elliott Glyn is the starting pitcher for UConn, and though he had a rough outing last weekend and isn?t even their top pitcher (Saturday starter Matt Barnes will be a high 1st round draft choice) he should be able to hold up against an average Beaver offense that only scored 5.4 runs a game last year and the first weekend averaged 3.25 in 4 games. Sam Gaviglio goes for the Beavers and is a decent pitcher, but there is not much pitching depth/support behind him. UConn has advantages across the board in this one.

Coastal -145 (vs. Cal) for 3 units ? offensively the teams are pretty even. Big edge on the mound though as Coastal goes with their #1 guy Anthony Meo (2.61 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; .230 OBA and 94 K?s in 96 2/3 IP last year). Cal due to having games postponed last week isn?t throwing their #1 guy (which is a smart move this early in the season) and is going with a reliever/closer/spot starter Kevin Miller. Miller is a good pitcher who the coach from Cal speaks really highly of, but he just isn?t at the level of Meo and is likely to be exposed against an offense like Coastal that can open up for a big inning or two. Miller?s numbers last year were a 4.72 ERA; 1.61 WHIP; .302 OBA and 35 K?s in 53 1/3 IP.

Vandy -175 (vs. Stanford) for 1 unit ? a decent amount of chalk for a game pitting two top 10 teams (Vandy #3, Stanford #8), but Commodores are a really good squad that is well rounded and can hurt you in a number of ways. Sonny Gray goes for the Commodores on the mound and has a decent advantage over Mark Appel of Stanford. Stanford has very good pitching depth and I don?t expect this one to be a rout or anything, but just like Vandy at home with all they have, so will make it a small play.

Fullerton +135 (@ TCU) for 1 unit ? tough going against the #4 team at home, but a change in TCU?s pitching rotation is the reason. Soph stud Matt Purke is moved from Friday to Sunday (and is still questionable for that) due to a blister issue. Veteran Kyle Winkler moves up to face off against the Titans ace Noe Ramirez. Winkler is a good pitcher, but doesn?t have the electric stuff Ramirez does that can keep big bats like TCU?s at bay.

gl guys

 

[shawn555]

gl today.

coastal steamed on up to -300!

 

[Mr. Poon]

thanks Shawn. I see the Coastal game is higher now too at 5dimes but not -300 and betus took the game down. These college lines can jump quickly if there is something wrong. The limited bettors there are for this sport will know it and all be on one side.

 

[hawkeye]

Great record--keep it going

 

[elmer fudd]

like csfull..bol:toast:

 

[Old School]

:0074

 

[Mr. Poon]

horrible day going 1-3 dropping 8.35 units, only getting the Vandy win. Coastal get slammed 17-0 :facepalm: and UConn can only manage 3 baserunners losing 2-0. Fullerton also goes down 4-1. Uggghh, an ugly day to give away most of the profits of the first weekend.

 

[Mr. Poon]

going with these two today:

Fullerton +115 (@ TCU) for 1 unit - just don't think they will be swept and Pill (Fullerton) vs. Maxwell (TCU) gives the Titans an edge on the mound to get a tough road W.

Zona -130 (vs. Long Beach) for 3 units - not surprised by Long Beach's win last night given their #1 pitcher Gagnon was going. As I wrote last week, their is a big drop off on their team after that. Kyle Simon starts today for Zona and should pace them to get a W.

gl guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

a good bounce back day going 2-0 for +4.15 units.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

a good bounce back day going 2-0 for +4.15 units.

Good work, Brutha. :0057

 

[Mr. Poon]

thanks for the kind words man. For today just some small plays:

Stanford +200 (@ Vandy) for 1/2 unit - Vandy is rolling along and showing they are a legit contender for Omaha early on. However, Stanford is still a top 20 team and this big of a dog price is worth a shot.

Fullerton +180 (@ TCU) for 1/2 unit - Phenom Matt Purke is going for TCU, but as said earlier he was pushed back from his #1 spot due to a blister problem. Similar to Stanford, Fullerton is worth a small shot at such a big dog price. Wouldn't be surprised to see Purke really limited today.

gl guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

both dog plays hit today helping chip away again at the disastrous friday.

Updated Record: 12-4 for +8.30 units

 

[TLankford]

any thoughts on UF-FSU / Rice-Zona today?

 

[Mr. Poon]

for today:

Florida -170 (vs. FSU) for 1 unit - one of the many reasons Florida is ranked #1 is the depth of their pitching. They have several veteran guys that use to be weekend starters that are either bullpen guys now or mid-week starters due to the emergence of some really talented younger starting pitchers. They go with junior Tommy Toledo today and he and the Gators should be able to handle their rivals at a neutral site.

Rice +160 (@ Zona) for 1/2 unit - My first thought was to play on the Wildcats today if they were a slight fav. I like their team/makeup this year and think they have potential to go far. However, the pitchers they are going with in this mid-week 2 game set against Rice are their #1 and #2 weekend guys, Heyer and Simon, both on only 3 days rest. That is a big risk this early in the season and I'm really surprised they are doing it despite the marquee matchup of top 20 clubs. Rice's strength this year should be thier offense and I believe they can tak advantage of Heyer not having his full velocity on short rest.

gl guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

0-fer on the day as Zona beats Rice 10-8 and FSU beats the Gators 5-3.