College Ball Week 5

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 24-20 for +5.65 units

After a good weekend last week I dropped 3 mid-week games, very disappointing after thinking we were moving in the right direction.

Arkansas +200 (@ LSU) for 1 unit ? LSU is a good club, but do not feel they deserve to be this big of a fav without their ace Ranaudo. LSU is a good offensive club and has a slight edge over Arkansas on paper there. Pitching wise LSU will start Junior Austin Ross and Arkansas will go with Senior Mike Bolsinger. Both are experienced guys that don?t have overpowering stuff and I would give a slight edge to Bolsinger. Last year Bolsinger was Arkansas? workhorse out of their pen. He faced LSU twice (both in relief) and logged 7 1/3 IP giving up 5 H?s 1 ER and notching 8 K?s. In contrast Ross faced Arkansas twice (1 start) and gave up 13 H?s, 5 ER?s with 5 K?s in 7 IP. Also this year?s LSU bullpen and pitching depth doesn?t match what it has been in years past (partially due to Ranaudo?s injury). Another edge for the bullpen to Arkansas makes this worth a small play.

GL guys

 

[Cie]

YTD Record: 24-20 for +5.65 units

After a good weekend last week I dropped 3 mid-week games, very disappointing after thinking we were moving in the right direction.

Arkansas +200 (@ LSU) for 1 unit ? LSU is a good club, but do not feel they deserve to be this big of a fav without their ace Ranaudo. LSU is a good offensive club and has a slight edge over Arkansas on paper there. Pitching wise LSU will start Junior Austin Ross and Arkansas will go with Senior Mike Bolsinger. Both are experienced guys that don?t have overpowering stuff and I would give a slight edge to Bolsinger. Last year Bolsinger was Arkansas? workhorse out of their pen. He faced LSU twice (both in relief) and logged 7 1/3 IP giving up 5 H?s 1 ER and notching 8 K?s. In contrast Ross faced Arkansas twice (1 start) and gave up 13 H?s, 5 ER?s with 5 K?s in 7 IP. Also this year?s LSU bullpen and pitching depth doesn?t match what it has been in years past (partially due to Ranaudo?s injury). Another edge for the bullpen to Arkansas makes this worth a small play.

GL guys

GL. You are right, the pitching matchups work better for arky tomorrow.....

 

[Mr. Poon]

Arkansas wins 6-3, always nice to get a big dog like that. See you guys tomorrow.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Three small plays today:

FSU +110 (@ North Carolina) for 1 unit ? Pitching matchup is pretty even today (John Gast, FSU vs. Colin Bates, UNC). Hitting big edge goes to FSU and they are never out of a game as shown by last night?s rally for the W (2 runs in the top of the 8th and 2 more in the 9th to win 4-3). Also as shown last night is UNC?s bullpen weakness. Just not as strong as in prior years and is likely to show up again today.

Arkansas +165 (@ LSU) for 1 unit ? going with Arkansas again as I feel their best pitcher is going today in Drew Smyly. In 4 starts this year Smyly has a 1.80 ERA; 1.30 WHIP; .237 OBA and 31 K?s in 20 IP. LSU has only faced a true strike out pitcher once this year (TJ Walz from Kansas) and it took them awhile to get to him and it wasn?t enough in a loss. Believe something similar happens today. LSU starts highly touted juco recruit Joey Bourgeois. Bourgeois is talented but raw and in four starts he has a 4.74 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; .215 OBA and 16 K?s in 19 IP. Not terrible, but considering he has 10 BB?s and 2 HBP against some meager competition, its easy to see he hasn?t harnessed his talents yet. Arkansas is pretty patient at the plate and think it pays off in this game.

Bama -120 (vs. Vandy) for 2 units ? Two very good offenses but this play is mainly on pitching. Vandy throws Junior Taylor Hill (4 starts, 1.98 ERA; .124 WHIP; .280 OBA and 24 K?s in 27 1/3 IP). Hill is not a bad #2 pitcher at all but just doesn?t match up with Bama?s starter Junior Jimmy Nelson. Nelson in 4 starts has a 0.80 ERA; 0.91 WHIP; .192 OBA and 26 K?s in 22 IP. Very stingy stats but he hasn?t faced overwhelming competition so far. Regardless Nelson is building off a very strong summer and has drastically improved on the control problems that plagued him his first two years at Bama.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

1-2 on the day, but hit Bama negating the two dog losses.

 

[Mr. Poon]

not much time for write-ups this morning but going with these:

Kentucky +100 (vs. Ole Miss) for 3 units - despite his struggles so far this year Alex Meyers is a pre good pitching talent and should be able to hold back Ole Miss today.

FSU +130 (@ UNC) for 1 unit - simply think FSU can win the series and will take a small play with them at a dog price.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

adding:

Bama -120 (vs. Vandy) for 2 units - think the Tide can get the sweep today. Throwing an impressive Frosh in Taylor Wolfe to start. Vandy goes with Soph Jack Armstrong who has been alright but hit hard by the decent competition that he has faced. Add in that Vandy's pen has ben taxed more the last two days, think Bama wins easily.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

2-1 on the day getting Kentucky and FSU but missing Bama.

Updated Record: 28-23 for +9.55 units