College FB Picks (10/18-10/20), YTD 49-40, +3.75 units

[BGFalcon]

BG/Kent St. under 59--BG is bad defensively but Kent's tendency to turn the ball over and poor kicking game should keep this one under the number.

USC/ND under 45.5--ND continues to struggle offensively and now they have a QB controversy. USC would like a whipping boy after their showing the past three weeks but are not solid enough offensively to put up big numbers.

North Texas/Troy under 66.5--N. Texas scored on two pick 6's and a 99 yard play last week. That won't happen two weeks in a row. Troy will have to score 50 for this to go over and they probably won't be interested enough to do that with Arkansas St. up next week. Two unit play.

 

[BGFalcon]

FCS Picks

FCS Picks

Towson PK over Colgate--Hoping Towson doesn't have a letdown this week after playing so poorly last week. I have Towson as a TD favorite.

Wofford -13 over Elon--Elon is having a pretty good year but they are going against a very strong Wofford team. Wofford wins this one they are looking good for the conference title. I think they will put the wood to Elon.

Hampton PK over S.C. State--Hampton is another team with a disappointing loss last week. But I don't think SC State will be able to contain TJ Mitchell.

Appalachian St. -14 over Geo. Southern--GS may not give a great effort after losing any chance of the title with their second conference loss. Appy St. is rolling again on offense.

Drake -2 over Davidson--Drake gets hammered by the top tier teams but seems to be able to handle the bottom tier teams. Davidson falls into the second category. Gotta love the Drake.

Cal Poly +7 over S. Dakota St.--My numbers had this a PK. I don't know how Cal Poly lost to Texas St. to start the year but they seemed to have made the necessary adjustments over the past couple of weeks.

UNH +4.5 over Hofstra--I'm betting that Santos can play this week. If he does, UNH wins this one outright.

 

[BGFalcon]

Morehead St. -11.5 over Butler--Morehead St. is not great but Butler is awful. Morehead's offense is decent and should put up big numbers against Butler's defense. This one will close at -15 or so. Two unit play.

 

[BGFalcon]

FAU -7 over ULL--Got this one at -6 early in the week but -7 will be OK. FAU has a shot to run the table in the Sun Belt going into a final game showdown with Troy. They can't afford to stumble here. ULL is horrible on defense and FAU had an extra week to prepare. Road chalk in the Sun Belt is usually a bad play, especially a TD or more but this year is a little different. Troy and FAU are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. I'll take my chances.

Sparty +19 over Ohio St.--The Buckeyes are #1 (probably by default) and they just might go undefeated until the bowl game but this seems to be too big of a number to cover. Sparty can score and their rushing game should test Ohio St.'s defense. The Buckeyes are solid in all phases of the game but their schedule has been so-so thus far. If this one was in East Lansing I would grab some monyline, but in Columbus I need the 19 points.

 

[c20916]

BG any thoughts on the NW/EMU total tonight. I am leaning towards the under myself, both team's D's aren't great, but I don't think EMU's O is that great either. Looking for around a 28-17 final

 

[BGFalcon]

That total is tough. I have a hard time playing overs when the total is that high. On the other hand, bad teams tend to make mistakes that lead to easy scores. EMU has given up 30 or more in their last three games and NW has been torched for 107 in their last three. If I had to play it, I would go with the under simply because of the high number. I'm passing. Too tough for me to call. Good luck.

 

[stwoody]

Nice Work BG,

Just talked to a longtime friend, ********* who is D coordinator at UC Davis last night. He feels they will win this game running away, so I bought it on the short -3. Key here has been unpublicized Aggie injuries, and he reports the whole team is as healthy as it has been all season. Also, Aggies are well aware they will need to win out in order to keep a 37 straight wining season, which might be highest in DIV 3. So Utah has played a tremendous non-conference schedule, and almost upended Youngstown last week. Engle is a pleasant surprise after posting career highs last week in loss to CAL POLY.......team has had great week of practice. Coach sounds confident that game plan and scouting will produce a big W in Utah. I just bought 3 units.............we shall see!:SIB

 

[BGFalcon]

I had that one as lined about right but with your additional information I might have to pull the trigger. The injury information makes sense because I couldn't figure out why they were struggling. Sometimes it is tough to get good data in division I-aa. Good luck this weekend.

 

[hawkeye]

Take a look at Mont -30 vs N Colo--thye are terrible

 

[BGFalcon]

Take a look at Mont -30 vs N Colo--thye are terrible

Yes they are. So is Jacksonville. I laid 30 with San Diego. I had the Montana game lined at -35 which is not enough of a difference for me to play but I won't be surprised if they cover it.

 

[BGFalcon]

Last one:

Last one:

MTSU -2.5 over Arkansas St.

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 7-6-1, (hope you got the 6.5 with FAU), +2.4 units

YTD: 56-46, +6.15 units