College FB Picks (11/3-11/5), YTD 55-41, +10.45 units
- Thread starter BGFalcon
- Start date
Toledo/Ohio under 53.5: Tough loss last week for the Rockets at Central Michigan. Coach Amstutz gambled four times on 4th down in the 2nd half and came up empty every time. There is still hope for UT to win their division since the Chips have to play NIU and Western yet. But, Toledo has to take care of business themselves. I'm not comfortable laying the double digits on a Friday night game in Athens but I think this game will be dominated by the running games. It's no secret Ohio is committed to the run since they average a little over 200 yards per game. But, Toledo has slowly evolved into a running team also. Neither team is great defensively but neither is terrible either. This line is a little higher than I thought because Ohio has gone over their last three games and the Rockets have a reputation of scoring points. But, the Rockets have gone under 5 out of the last 6. That trend will continue this week.
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Ohio St. -20.5 (1st half) over Illinois: The Buckeyes are coming back home after a good performance against Minnesota. They are starting to score some points although their offense still has some question marks. But, with their big play ability, special teams and opportunistic defense, they can put points on the board in a hurry, especially against teams like Illinois. Tressel lets them play much looser against rotten teams and I think the Buckeyes explode early in this one. Illinois is ready for this season to end and will lay down early on the road.
Division I-AA
Division I-AA
Lehigh -21 over Georgetown: Strange line as Lehigh is clearly the better team. A little weak in pass defense but Georgetown can't throw at all. Lehigh will roll. 2 unit play.
Chas. Southern +30 over Gardner Webb: GW has given up over 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they are laying 30? They are ranked near the bottom in Division I-AA in defense and supposed to win by over 4 TD's. I'll take my chances with the points.
Alcorn St. +2 over Miss. Valley St.: Two pretty good defensive teams go at it but Miss Valley relies too much on the pass offensively. Alcorn St. is very athletic and should be able to make some big plays. I have it lined at Alcorn -6.
S. Illinois PK over YSU: Huge game in the Gateway Conference with S. Illinois coming off a big win against W. Kentucky while YSU stumbled against N. Iowa. I don't think the Penguins' defense is good enough to stop the SIU offense. Aside from the puzzling performance against Illinois St. this team has been very tough. They should be laying at least a TD so at PK and at home, this is a 2 unit play.
Division I-AA
Lehigh -21 over Georgetown: Strange line as Lehigh is clearly the better team. A little weak in pass defense but Georgetown can't throw at all. Lehigh will roll. 2 unit play.
Chas. Southern +30 over Gardner Webb: GW has given up over 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they are laying 30? They are ranked near the bottom in Division I-AA in defense and supposed to win by over 4 TD's. I'll take my chances with the points.
Alcorn St. +2 over Miss. Valley St.: Two pretty good defensive teams go at it but Miss Valley relies too much on the pass offensively. Alcorn St. is very athletic and should be able to make some big plays. I have it lined at Alcorn -6.
S. Illinois PK over YSU: Huge game in the Gateway Conference with S. Illinois coming off a big win against W. Kentucky while YSU stumbled against N. Iowa. I don't think the Penguins' defense is good enough to stop the SIU offense. Aside from the puzzling performance against Illinois St. this team has been very tough. They should be laying at least a TD so at PK and at home, this is a 2 unit play.
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MTSU -4.5 over Arkansas St. and under 46: MTSU has Ark St and then ULM at home the next two weeks and they can get right back in the Sun Belt race with two wins. Arkansas St. has been able to score this year but MTSU hasn't given up over 20 points since Game 1. They completely dominated North Texas in the Sun Belt opener but had two huge turnovers in the red zone, otherwise they would be in a much better position to win the league. Their offense has been a disappointment but should be able to score against a weak Arkansas St. defense. Call it 21-10.
Wisconsin +12 over Penn St.: This is too many points for the Nittany Lions to cover in such a big game in the Big 10. Granted, Wisconsin is not a great defensive team but they can score and they play hard. They will be able to move the ball even against PSU's defense. I can't see PSU putting the Badgers away. Take the points.
Iowa/Northwestern under 61: Iowa has had an extra week to prepare for this one and also got a chance to watch how Michigan shut down the Wildcat offense. They will use the same formula: take advantage of a weak NW defense to get a lead and then keep the NW offense off the field by pounding the ball. Iowa is not as athletic as Michigan on defense but should be good enough to slow NW down. I have this one lined in the mid-50's.
Rcxslam,
I just got back to the computer so I couldn't respond to your question. But, I laid off the game because I thought both teams had some issues with quitting. Hope you had the right side.
I just got back to the computer so I couldn't respond to your question. But, I laid off the game because I thought both teams had some issues with quitting. Hope you had the right side.
One more...
One more...
North Texas +4 over ULL: NT might be in a tie for first with ULM after this game. ULL doesn't have the rush defense to stop the NT running game. The stats are misleading but if you look at just the Sun Belt opponents, NT is the better team. I'll take the 4 point home dog.
One more...
North Texas +4 over ULL: NT might be in a tie for first with ULM after this game. ULL doesn't have the rush defense to stop the NT running game. The stats are misleading but if you look at just the Sun Belt opponents, NT is the better team. I'll take the 4 point home dog.
Thanks Box,
I can't believe MTSU scored 45 points but at least I had the side too. All in all, a fun day.
I'm off to Browns Stadium to cheer for the under. There is a high wind warning and thunderstorms in the area. Hoping both teams stick to the ground and keep the clock running.
I can't believe MTSU scored 45 points but at least I had the side too. All in all, a fun day.
I'm off to Browns Stadium to cheer for the under. There is a high wind warning and thunderstorms in the area. Hoping both teams stick to the ground and keep the clock running.
