College FB Picks (9/13-9/15), YTD 10-4, +6.1 units

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BGFalcon

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CMU +20 over Purdue, Toledo +22 over Kansas, WMU +20 over Missouri--These three games all fit in the same formula for me: Dogs of 20 points or more in high total games. In these games the defense for the favorite tends to loosen up and gives up points late. I'm hoping that continues but Toledo and CMU have had some problems defensively.

Akron +13 over Indiana--Akron has not been an offensive machine this year but defensively they have been solid. Indiana has rolled up some yardage but hasn't faced a defense like the Zips yet. I don't know if they are good enough to be laying two touchdowns in this spot.

UW +4 over Ohio St.--This will be tough one for the Buckeyes. Again their defense is strong but they are nothing special on offense. UW has quietly become a solid team on both sides of the ball. Playing at home, getting more than a FG, opponent traveling cross country, I like the Huskies.
 
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#cruncher

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Us (primarily) dog players may have to tread carefully for a while this year as the new rule changes should add between 10 to 15 extras plays per game thereby possibly benefiting the favs more?
 
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Cie

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taoist said:
I was thinking this may be the week that the doggies bark a little.... Too many fav's covering in the first 2 weeks. BOL this week. :)
Click to expand...

The beauty of college football. Sooo many games played weekly that dog players can perform well, even with favs dominating:00hour
 
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spang

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Obviously I'm on Washington with you as OSU seems to lack the big play ability they have enjoyed for years. I'm also not convinced that the Bucks possess the greatest defense that ever laced them up after keeping the limited offense of Akron out of the endzone. They get their first real test.

I have little faith in the Zip offense at this early point of the year. Akron has less than 400 yards of offense through two games and only netted 287 yards and a 17% 3rd down efficiency vs. Army. Akron's defense should keep them in a lot of games and I like their secondary very much but they will be seriously tested at IU. Akron will need to put at least a couple in the endzone to get the cover vs. the Hoosiers who ran up 440 of offense yards at Western last week. Thats a gutsy call.


I'll almost certainly play Wash/ OSU under the total, while the CMU, WMU and Toledo games all look like very,very high scoring affairs ,all of which could easily land in the 60's.
 
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BGFalcon

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FAU/Minnesota under 56--I think I stated last week that I would continue to fade Minnesota as a favorite. I should have added "unless they are playing a Sun Belt team." But I do like the under. Neither team is real good but FAU will be a factor in the Sun Belt. Both teams will try to run the ball and the defenses should have some success stopping the mediocre offenses. Minnesota is banged up and that may help keep the score down. The number seems about 6-7 points too high.
 
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#cruncher

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Taoist...I've yet to come up with anything that's reliable for totals...but I've never spent a lot of time working on it...if I play a total it's usually a subjective judgement based on yardage allowed by each team. Then I either go over or under regardless of the total line posted...maybe kinda weak in theory but works pretty good sometime...any totals I do...I will wait to make sure I'm not the opposite of Hawkeye tho :scared
 
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turksure

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#cruncher said:
Us (primarily) dog players may have to tread carefully for a while this year as the new rule changes should add between 10 to 15 extras plays per game thereby possibly benefiting the favs more?
Click to expand...

#cruncher - what rule changes have added the extra plays this year, thanks turk
 
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#cruncher

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Turksure...I'm personally not up real good on that kind of stuff...Ida mentioned 1...but I think there's at least one more. I had read a real good article on it by one of the handicappers (SS at JF)at another site and it made a lot of sense. Also, the extra 5yd kick-off thing can't help either. I just know I enjoyed seeing a lot of dogs coming in last year and hope it continues, but the article kinda make me think otherwise.
 
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BGFalcon

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San Diego -13.5 over Northern Colorado. N. Colorado is rotten and hopefully San Diego has got the killer instinct that they lacked last week. I also like Yale laying the points against Georgetown but they are on the road so I'll pass.
 
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BGFalcon

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A few more FCS games:

A few more FCS games:

I initially thought I wouldn't be playing many of these but some of the numbers came in better than I thought. No time for writeups:

Portland St. -2.5 over Sacremento St.
North Dakota St. -10 over Sam Houston St.
C. Carolina +11.5 over Georgia Southern
YSU -13 over Stony Brook
Morgan St. -1.5 over Winston-Salem
W. Kentucky -2.5 over E. Kentucky
 
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