college football handicappers...

[taoist]

...you're absolutely right, bear. if you vary the size of your bets, then almost any winning percentage could feasibly produce a profit.... taken to the extreme, you could be a 10% winner or less, but if you bet small on all the losers and huge on the winner, you could manage a profit.... not trying to be a smartass...hope you understand...just never considered that aspect when talking win %. i suppose most folks do in fact vary the size of their bets. but in that case, winning percentage is kind of irrelevant, isn't it?

edit: bear, i've known you (seen you around here) for a while and always thought well of you...didn't want you to take this post wrong...nuthin' but love, man.

...from what i recollect from your past posts is that you, based on the "bell curve" of avg dist, actually increase your bets as you are on the downswing below 50% and decrease on the upswing over 50%??? or am i thinking of some one else??? i always thought that was an interesting theory....

 

[bear]

Taoist.......much respect
I love the exchange of information and ideas related to sports gaming a/o money management,
probability etc..........offense taken.........never!
You are absolutely right about my approach to money management........and of course you are right about (taken to the extreme) any % can turn a profit..........given an unlimited bankroll....just bet your cumulative losses plus $1 on each successive bet. Win once.. then 'Bingo" You're a winner. (not practical)
I like to take this idea and make it functional ...in the context of say a 200 bet season.......adjusting size of bet ....say...after each 5 or 6 plays.
I'll begin at 1 unit and adjust something like this..
according to W%.
47.5%....1.2 units till 50% then back to 1
45%....1.4 units till 47.5% then back to 1.2
42.5%....1.8 units till 45% then back to 1.4
40%....2.5 units till 42.5%....etc......
If my cloud is so dark that I'm still <40% its time to take time off and preserve whats left of the bankroll for hoops.
Its just what seems to work for me and the above is just an example.........I'm always tweaking randomly. I do believe,however, that money management is key to longevity at this...... JMHO...
Then there is the matter of picking Winners....
critical numbers, game fundamentals, streaks, patterns, etc........Its great to have such a timesaving source of great info from regional experts and stat people here....and I'm looking forward to the season.

GL
bear

 

[Nosigar]

If an average game card is 50 games....

do you have the discipline to only wager 3 games and call it a day?

No.

 

[The Judge]

I usually wager on five to ten NCAAF games a week. With all of the games out there, I believe that is is possible to find that many with value.

 

[dunclock]

Since I was on more limited funding last year, me and a buddy decided last year that we would pick 3 games each Sunday, rotating every other week who would pick and who would hold the picks. I always have played to many games in my 35 years of gambling, but found it amazing to go 18-9 in my nine weeks of picking three games last football season. Always being an action junkie, found it a lot easier to go with your three strongest plays.

Interesting that this topic came up, as that is my plan of attack for this years football season :firing:

GL to all in the upcoming seaon, my Titans open up tonight :clap: Game time temperature is only 95 degrees :scared

 

[Chopsticks]

It all depends on the day's card. But I mostly agree with SixFive. Early games, mid-day games, and night games. I no longer bet for the money, but just for the excitement of handicapping. With kids, a house note, and a new car note, kinda limits my wagering. But I did set aside 1 dime this year for the college season from my profit sharing at work. But that's my limit. Best of luck everyone!!!!