college play for 9/10 - 9/12.....

[AR182]

basically lost juice in week 1...& have the under in the miami / fla. st. game pending....

i wanted to post this play because i am starting to see it move upward....again all plays are 2* unless noted otherwise...

so. miss.-14 (115)...

got it at 14.5 & bought it down to 14....

i'll have a writeup on this play as soon as i can...


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding...

oregon-11.....

this line is going up also & wanted to post it before all of the books raised the line too high....

again will have a writeup when i get a chance....


good luck...

 

[AR182]

adding....

ark. st.+24.....

i'm starting to see some books go down to 23.5 at some offshores & 23 at some vegas books...

again writeups will follow...

good luck....

 

[gardenweasel]

tailed you on the fla.st./miami under....after a rocky start it looks like it`s settled down a bit....

whichever way it swings,i think it was worth tapping for a smidge....

g.l...and thanks for posting...

 

[Sun Tzu]

ARI years ago I looked at trends such as the ones you cite I seem to recall one that was something to the effect of go against a team that scores in single digits but wins - ie South Carolina.But I defer to the trend master.

 

[gardenweasel]

i wussed out and took over 23.5 2nd half after watching fla st`s d.b.`s play 15 yards off miami`s wideouts..gladly pay the juice(barring a 48 point total)...

wth are they thinking?...:lol:

 

[Irish]

AR
GL this week, but Oregon doesn't scare you here? They lose the number one running back (who is replacable) but he no shows at practice. The play calling against Boise was bad and the execution was even worse. I like the ducks to rebound but I am not sure they are at that point, I am leaning on a pass there, but respect your plays and wanted to chime in.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Cie]

As if I were Kramer, I've had Arky St circled since August. GL sir......

 

[AR182]

finished up week 1 going 12-11...terrible capping by me...i should be shot for some of the bets i made....any way upward & onward...

so.miss.-14(115).....

it looks like ucf is continuing where they left off from last year with an offense that is non-existent & lacking playmakers.....last year their offense averaged 16.6 ppg & 230 ypg & last week they accumilated 14 first downs & 282 yards vs.samford in their opener.......on defense they return 6 starters from last year's team that allowed an average of 24 ppg....

last year so. miss. beat ucf on the road 17-6.....the final score did'nt tell the true story of the game where sm ran 88 plays & 22 first downs to the 49 plays & 10 first downs run by ucf....also damion fletcher did not play in last year's game.....

last season was supposed to be a learning experience for sm because they had a new head coach & new systems & was starting a freshman qb....well their qb (austin davis) learned the offense quicker than anticipated because he had an outstanding season by throwing for 3,128 passing yards, with 23 td?s & only 8 ints, & rushing for 508 yds. on the ground.....in addition fletcher ran for 1,313 yards at 6.0 ypc, & the team had 4 different receivers catch at least 33 passes...this year all of the major players have returned except for the tight-end & the ol returns every starter......this offense should be 1 of the top units nationwide....

2 years ago the sm defense led conf. usa in points allowed......last season, despite losing 7 starters, sm tied for 2nd by allowing 24.1 ppg......they also forced 29 turnovers & finished 4th in total defense, giving up 365.8 yards per game.....this year they return 8 starters & should be even more effective.....

play on - home favorites (sm) - in the 1st month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season......over the last 5 seasons the ats record is......30-9.....76.9%.....

the su record of the team this system pertains to is......37-3 over the last 5 seasons....the average line posted in these games was....team favored by 20.4.....the average score in these games was....team 41.4, opponent 12.5....average point differential.....+28.8.....the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22.....56.4% of all games......

ucf simply will not be able to keep up with this sm team, who imo has a good chance to break into the top 25 at season's end......sm should win this game very comfortably....


good luck...

 

[AR182]

ARI years ago I looked at trends such as the ones you cite I seem to recall one that was something to the effect of go against a team that scores in single digits but wins - ie South Carolina.But I defer to the trend master.

sun...

i've looked high & low for a trend like what you listed & couldn't find anything....but i do have an e-mail out to somebody & am waiting for his response.....

 

[AR182]

here is some info on the oregon play....

oregon-11.....

first off i am over looking oregon's loss last week to boise...because over the years i have seen strange things happen on the blue carpet....& because of last week's loss & because of purdue's scoring 52 points vs. toledo last week, i think there is value with ou this week....

purdue has a new coach after tiller retired & has a tough task ahead of him with the team going 4-8 last year & having to replace 7 starters on offense, including qb painter & the highly productive passcatching duo of tandy & orton (who combined to catch 136 balls for 10 tds last season) & top tailback sheets.....most of the defense is back, but even that unit needs work as purdue allowed a little over 25 ppg & allowed 5 different opponents to rush for 5 ypc...

ou has a new coach also as offensive coordinator, kelly takes over & if ou comes anywhere close to matching what it did last year offensively they will very hard to stop as kelly's spread scheme proved impossible to stop more often than not last season as ou scored 545 total points at little under 42 ppg & more than 280 yards rushing yards per game.....& eventhough ou has lost blount, they still have johnson running the ball & his rushing yds. of 1201 yds. was more than blount's 1002 yds last season....i was very impressed with ou's qb, masoli in their bowl game last season vs. ok st & he is back & throwing to last year's 2 top receiver's...maehl, who caught 39 passes & dickson who caught 78 passes & is one of the nation?s best tightends......

on defense, ou has 5 starters back from last year with their biggest losses along the d-line & eventhough they will be missing their top safety, chung, their 2ndary & linebackers are considered a strength.....last week the ou defense held boise to 2.4 ypc....

play on - favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ou) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, in non-conference games.......

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....30-8......78.9%......

the su record of the team this system pertains to is.......38-0 over the last 5 seasons......the average line posted in these games was.....team favored by 16.3.....the average score in these games was.....team 40.7, opponent 14.1....average point differential......+26.6....the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22.....59.5% of all games.......

last year after falling behind 20-3, ou beat purdue on the road 32-26 & ran for over 300 yds....

ou has 1 of the most difficult stadiums for visitors to play in & with a new coach & a new qb making their very first road start, i can't see purdue staying within 2 tds....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

iowa st. +7.5(125)......

iowa st. usually plays 1 of its best games of the year against iowa, going 9-1 ats in last 10....& holding iowa to an average of 15.3 ppg over their last 5 meetings....

maybe last week iowa was looking to this weeks game because against northern iowa, they needed a 4th-qtr td & 2 blocked field goals in the
final seconds to rally & then hung on for the 17-16 win......iowa qb stanzi was sacked 4 times, & the
iowa offense managed just 87 yr...... iowa coach ferentz was relying heavily on hampton to replace greene, but hampton is through for the season with a knee injury & & now iowa's top runner is a former walk on......

iowa st qb arnaud has an experienced OL & a solid runner in robinson & a deep group of wideouts, led by 6-4 sr. hamilton.....

play on - home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (iowa st) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with an experienced qb returning as starter, in the 1st month of the season......

since 1992 the ats record is.....26-6......81.2%.....

the su record of the team this system pertains to is.......14-18.....he average line posted in these games was....opponent favored by 6.5....the average score in these games was.....team 24.6, opponent 22....average point differential.....+2.6....

the home team has won 5 straight in this series &
imo iowa st is capable of winning this su.....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

in addition to the 4 that i already posted...here are a few more plays..writeups will be added if i have time....

virginia +11
ucla+10(130)
w. mich+2(120)
e. carolina+7(120)


good luck...

 

[AR182]

AR
GL this week, but Oregon doesn't scare you here? They lose the number one running back (who is replacable) but he no shows at practice. The play calling against Boise was bad and the execution was even worse. I like the ducks to rebound but I am not sure they are at that point, I am leaning on a pass there, but respect your plays and wanted to chime in.

Cheers
Irish

thanks for your thoughts irish..i appreciate it....hope my writeup is clear on why i like ou....

 

[AR182]

have some time so here is a quick writeup on virginia....

virginia+11...

i am well aware that uva lost last week to wm. & mary & comitted 7 turnovers in learning a new offensive system......but this is tcu's first game of the year......& they are returning 6 from last year's offense, with only 2 from the o-line returning.....& are returning only 4 from last year's starting defense.....

the new offensive coach for uva is the former bg coach brandon & he is teaching the spread attack to this offense that returns 6 from last year's starters, including 4 on the o-line....the defense also returns 6 from last years team, including 3 from the 2ndary, which ranked #26 nationwide in pass defense.....under groh, the uva defense has always been good allowing less than 21 ppg the last 3 years combined....

as bad as uva was last year, they did beat 2 ranked opponents.....in addition under groh, uva is 15-5 ats as a home dog....

i'll take the home dog + the points against a team playing their first game of the season....


good luck...

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 50 pitt / buff.....

i think pitt. has learned that when they run the ball & control the line of scrimmage against inferior opponents, they usually win the game comfortably....& that is what i see in this game...also both teams are returning most of their defensive starters from last year....pitt. returns 7 & buffalo returns 8.....


ark. st.+ 24.....

i think this is a sandwich game for neb. & a potential flat spot for them....last week they had their season opener & beat fla. atl. rather easily...next week they will seek revenge vs. virginia tech who beat them last year.....& in between they are playing ark. st, another sun belt team...

i also find it curious that after beating fla. atl. 49-3 & gaining 490 yds., neb.is favored in this game, another sun belt team by about the same number they were favored over fla. atl....while the books reacted this week to last weeks results on most games, there is no reaction for this game....interesting....also ark. st. returns 8 from last years pretty good defense....

i think ark. st. has a very good chance of staying within the number this week...


good luck...

 

[AR182]

adding.....

af+4(115)....

minn. is coming off an ot win last week vs. syracuse, while af put up 72 vs. nicholls st.....

last year af ran for 266 yds. per game...minn. is 4-21-1(16%) ats as favorites in games in which they allow 200 or more rushing yards....

the minn. coach is 1-5 ats as favorites in games that are non-big 10.....

calhoun is 11-0 ats when the total is between 42.5& 49 as the coach of af......

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (af) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season.....

over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is......26-4......86.7%

the system's record this season is.....2-0....

i'll take the rushing dog....

good luck....

 

[AR182]

here is a small writeup on e. carolina...

e. car.+7(115).....

first i think this game features, imo a coaching mis-match with e. car.head coach clearly the better coach...since taking over last season for rich rod as head coach of wvu, stewart has wanted to diversify the offense with more passing...but they dropped 15 ppg in the process !!....

wvu has this game circled because last year ec embarrassed wvu & held them to just 12 first downs....but this year in addition to replacing pat white at qb, wvu will have to replace 4 multi-year starters on the o-line, many of whom (or is it who...lol) had earned big east honors.....this could cause a problem against the aggressive e. car. defense who is returning 8 from last years starters & a defense that held opposing offenses to under 4 ypr & held 5 of its 14 oppoents to under 20 points.....

as head coach of wvu, stewart is 4-8 ats as a favorite..meanwhile the ec coach, holtz is 20-5 as a dog, including 7 straight su wins....& since 1992 ec is 17-3 ats as a road dog of 7 points or less.....

this game should be tight from start to finish...


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding.....

tulane + 18 (120)....

where's kramer ?...because this the ultimate sandwich game...

byu is just off their biggest upset in their history as a 22 point dog to okla. & then their game after this week is against fla. st....how mentally prepared will byu be for this game against a nobody...tulane ?

we all know a lot about byu..but how much do we know about tulane....

last year at the start of the season when everybody was healthy tulane played both bama & e. carolina very tough & against bama they had an 18-11 first down edge & a 318 -172 edge in yardage....they folded last year because injuries depleted their team & they lacked any kind of depth & they were missing their top back anderson & their top wr williams....they are both healthy now & i expect tulane to give byu a fight from begining to end....last week's game against tulsa, tulane lost 37-13...but tulsa had an int & a fumble recovery for tds....so the tulane defense gave up 23 points & 19 1st downs....

play against road favorites off a su dog win as 14 or more point dogs vs an opponent off a su loss....

since 1982 the ats record is....19-5-1......79%....


good luck...

 

[Cie]

Tulane is better than credit given them. Will be on the wave for sure.