college plays for 10/12-10/14...

[AR182]

71-57....+7.10*

for tonight i'm playing.....

under 48 col.st./a.f......

there is no real reason why i played this other than of the 3 games that are being played tonight & with all of the different type of plays tonight, i thought the under in this game was the best.

pinnacle opened the total at 49 & i grabbed it at 48 earlier in the week. the past 2 years the average points scored when these 2 teams played was 64 points. since 1992 the average score when these 2 teams played totaled 61 points. so when i saw 48 as the total, i thought it looked fishy so i played the under (hope it makes sense...lol).

in looking at the game...

a.f. runs the ball 81% of the time..col.st.has a very good run defense & their total defense ranks 6th in the nation...but they haven't really been tested. from the previous games, col. st. seems to have an average offense, but they can throw the ball down the field....& a.f. 2ndary is usally nothing great. as long as there aren't too many long pass completions or high amount of turnovers, i think this game ends in the low 40s.

a few trends.....

Lubick (coach of col.st.) is 15-6 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of COLORADO ST.

Lubick is 12-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of COLORADO ST.

Lubick is 11-1 UNDER against teams who force 2.5or more turnovers/game on the season as the coach of COLORADO ST.....this tells me that when lubick faces a team that likes to cause turnovers, he tends to not take so many chances with the ball.

DeBerry(coach of a.f.) is 15-6 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of AIR FORCE.

DeBerry is 11-3 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of AIR FORCE.

DeBerry is 26-12 UNDER in the first half of the season as the coach of AIR FORCE.


good luck.

 

[ajoytoy]

al,

gl with the play and the weekend

toy

 

[DeadPrez]

Colorado State has a top ranked defense.
6th in the nation maybe :shrug: supports your under play

gl tonite and this weekend AR

 

[Tam]

Nice capping as usual! Hope you continue with a great weekend! :mj06:

 

[blgstocks]

great play AR

 

[AR182]

thanks guys..appreciate it.

i think i was lucky to win that play because i read that air force turned the ball over a few times deep in csu's territory...but i'll take it.

tonight i will try my luck again on the under.....

under 48(130)....

i bought it up to 48 because it fits a parameter of a totals system that i use.

i think that the ucf (o'leary) coach realizes that his team cannot trade points with pitt. & expect to win. so tonight i think that he tries to grind out the game by running the ball & trying to shorten the game.

if you look at the scores of previous games that these teams played....other than against mich. st., pitt hasn't given up more than 15 points in any one game....& other than against fla., ucf hasn't given up more than 24 points against an opponent.

so i look for a total score to be in the low to mid 40s......anyway that's what i hope for (lol).

good luck.

 

[IX_Bender]

Have to think this game comes down to QB play for the Knights. Its been said they will play both at times. Moffet simply doesnt throw the ball well and it will be a struggle to run tonight, unlike vs Marshall. Basically you need the moustache to get a dd lead, then chew clock and run the ball - which he likes to do.

GL

 

[AR182]

thanks for your thoughts on the game bender...always appreciate them....good luck.

a few plays for saturday....


4*san jose st.-14.....

this is a good spot for sjst. coming off a bye week while utah st.won last week as a very big dog. also
believe it or not sjst. could be bowling this year with a few more wins. sjst. has dramatically improved on both sides of the ball this year, while utah st. ranks 3rd worst in the nation in scoring & total offense & 109th in scoring defense.

here are 2 trends that support this play....

teams playing their 4th straight home game (sjst) & won the previous 3 games as either a dog, pick, or no line in at least one of those 3 games are 16-7ats (69.6%) since 1996.

teams coming off an upset win as a 20 point dog or more (utah st) are 5-9-1 ats (35.7%) in the next game.


4*c. mich.-8.....

i like this c. mich. team. they impressed me against bc (where they played even from the line of scrimmage) & mich. while ball st.'s defense is the worst in the nation. they allowed teams such as e. mich., indiana, & buffalo gaine nearly 6 yards per play. although ball st. has a good passing attack ( they have a pretty bad running attack), i don't think that they will be able to keep up with cm.

here is a trend supporting this play...

play on - favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (c.mich.) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.....

since 1992 the ats record is 32-7....82.1%

4*bama -14....

since this is a sec conference game, i'm looking for a very good effort for bama today after last week's flat performance against duke. eventhough miss. beat vandy last week, they were physically manhandled....in first downs 23-7 & total yards 400-179. 5 vandy turnovers gave miss. the win. miss. can't pass the ball...they are averaging about 4yds. per pass play, while on defense they allow about 6.5 yppp. i have read that bama alumni weren't happy with shula after last week's game, so i think bama blows miss. out just to keep everybody happy.

also played...

wyoming+4(120)
so. fla.-2(120)
penn. st.+7
tex. a+m+3(120)
u 54(120) cin/louisville

good luck.

 

[LTYEP]

4*bama -14....

since this is a sec conference game, i'm looking for a very good effort for bama today after last week's flat performance against duke. eventhough miss. beat vandy last week, they were physically manhandled....in first downs 23-7 & total yards 400-179. 5 vandy turnovers gave miss. the win. miss. can't pass the ball...they are averaging about 4yds. per pass play, while on defense they allow about 6.5 yppp. i have read that bama alumni weren't happy with shula after last week's game, so i think bama blows miss. out just to keep everybody happy.

.

Forget it Bama is not going to cover...

You think if they can't even come close to covering with Duke (who sucks really bad), you think they will cover with Miss?

Bama blows.. they are not even worth peoples wager on them...

 

[Handi Capper]

Forget it Bama is not going to cover...

You think if they can't even come close to covering with Duke (who sucks really bad), you think they will cover with Miss?

Bama blows.. they are not even worth peoples wager on them...

How bout some resonable reasoning:scared

AR gave us some for bama

 

[ScreaminPain]

Forget it Bama is not going to cover...

You think if they can't even come close to covering with Duke (who sucks really bad), you think they will cover with Miss?

Bama blows.. they are not even worth peoples wager on them...

a lot of "blow" and "suck", but what about some insight.......:nono:

 

[taoist]

Al,

...thought you might like to see this. It applies to Cent Mich this weekend.


Teams with a win percentage of greater than .400 are a solid 94-70-5 ATS at home after 3 or more road games, including 44-22-3 ATS if their coming off a win of more than 7 points in their most recent game.


Best of luck this weekend!!!

 

[Irish]

AR
Best of luck this weekend, we might be head to head on a few of those... but thats good for you cause I'm in a cold run.

Cheers
Irish

 

[thom24ad]

Solid card AR good luck...

 

[StevieD]

Thanks for sharing Al. Great work. Good luck today.

 

[ThrowinPicks]

AR - you found it bro. Wyoming should be the favorite in that game! Good luck today.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it.

made a small change on the bama game....now have...

4*bama-14
2*miss.+17(130)

adding...

virginia+4(120)
u52 oregon/ucla
kent-7
lou tech-2(120)
u45 navy/rutgers

good luck.

 

[Irish]

You are adding UVA:hitwithro :mj08: (haha) head to head there, I am just not sold on UVA, they have had a tough time rebuilding and they are at least 2 years away from putting it together again. As always good luck.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

irish...don't go by me because i'm not doing very well in college this year.


adding...

smu-5
hawaii-3
n.mex..ml


good luck.

 

[Kramer]

Good call on the under Navy/Rut game, I totally
screwed up on that one.