i'll take that ld....lol....
here are writeups on some of my plays....
stanford+6....
under stoops, az. is 5-9 ats as a favorite in conference play, they are also 9-14 ats as a favorite in all games, including 0-3 ats this year....their defense has gotten worse in recent weeks, allowing 27,32, & 36 respectively....i think this is a game where the team with the ball last will have the opportunity to win....so the points look inviting....
play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (arizona) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team....
since 1992 the record for this system is....31-7.....81.6%....
the average line posted in these games was....opponent favored by 6.6....he average score in these games was: team 28.2, opponent 26.9....
ncst+3....
i like the ncst qb, wilson because he doesn't make mistakes....while bc is still unsettled at qb this late in the season....also like the ncst coach obrien, most of the time he seems to have his teams ready....as witnessed by the fact that ncst is 8-1 ats when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons....the average score was ncst 27.3, opponent 27.1....
under 55 vt / gt....
play under - any team against the total (vt) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game....
since 1992 the record for this system is....30-9....76.9%....
the average total posted in these games was....49.4....the average score in these games was....team 22.2, opponent 19.6....total points scored....41.8....
under 54(120) laf. / w. kentucky....
play under - home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (w. kentucky) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses, in october games....
over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....72.7%....
the average total posted in these games was....53.1....the average score in these games was.... team 21.1, opponent 26.7....total points scored....47.8....
under 48(130) akron / buffalo....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (buffalo) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game....
over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....96-45....68.1%....
the average total posted in these games was....46.2....the average score in these games was....team 24.8, opponent 18.5....total points scored....43.3....
the system's record this season is....7-1....87,5%....
louisville+14(125)....
i'm not convinced that conn. has the type of offense to extend a lead so i'll take the 14 points....
play against - any team (conn.) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season....
over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....108-57....65.5%....
the system's record this season is....5-1....83.3%....
baylor+3....
i like the baylor coach, briles & think even with the baylor qb missing, he will have his team ready....
over the last 2 seasons baylor is 6-0 ats vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse....the average score was baylor 29.3, opponent 29.0....
since 1992 iowa st is 6-17 ats in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56....the average score was iowa st 21.3, opponent 33.1....
under 53 nw / mich. st....
play under - road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (nw) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 5 offensive starters returning....
over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....36-13....73.5%....
the average total posted in these games was....52.2....the average score in these games was.... team 23, opponent 22.8....total points scored....45.7....
under 48 wash. / az. st....
az. st is 8-0 under off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons....the average score was....az st 26.6,opponent 17.6....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (az. st.) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game....
over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....96-45....69.1%....
the average total posted in these games was....46.2....the average score in these games was....team 24.8, opponent 18.5....total points scored....43.3....
the system's record this season is....7-1....87.5%....
i also added these plays....
under 40(120) army / temple....
under 50 col. st. / tcu....
good luck....
