college plays for 11/10 - 11/15....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks mdc....appreciate it....
here's some info on the miss. st. play....
miss.st+14(130)....
msu is off a bye week while bama is off a huge win over lsu in which they clinched the sec west title....
there are plenty of trends & systems pointing towards either a flat performance for bama or a solid performance by miss. st....& believe it or not offensively, these 2 teams are very even when looking at conference only stats & actually msu has done a better job at running the ball than bama has....
since 2005, lined teams after facing lsu are 25-26 su & 20-30-1 ats in ther next game (4-4 su & 2-6 ats this season), & when facing a team off a bye, these teams are 2-7 su/ats....& historically, bama is 4-10 ats in their next game after playing lsu....
2 systems....
play on any less than .500 home dog (msu) of more than 7 points in game 4 or later off more than 10 days rest if they won su in their previous game vs a conference opponent off a su/ats win.....
since 1980 this system is....15-0 ats....100%....
the systems record this season is....1-0....100%....
play on - home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (msu) - off a road win, when playing on a saturday....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....24-4....85.7%....
the average line posted in these games was.... opponent favored by 14.2....the average score in these games was....team 24.1, opponent 31.1....
the system's record this season is....1-0....100%....
good luck....
here's some info on the miss. st. play....
miss.st+14(130)....
msu is off a bye week while bama is off a huge win over lsu in which they clinched the sec west title....
there are plenty of trends & systems pointing towards either a flat performance for bama or a solid performance by miss. st....& believe it or not offensively, these 2 teams are very even when looking at conference only stats & actually msu has done a better job at running the ball than bama has....
since 2005, lined teams after facing lsu are 25-26 su & 20-30-1 ats in ther next game (4-4 su & 2-6 ats this season), & when facing a team off a bye, these teams are 2-7 su/ats....& historically, bama is 4-10 ats in their next game after playing lsu....
2 systems....
play on any less than .500 home dog (msu) of more than 7 points in game 4 or later off more than 10 days rest if they won su in their previous game vs a conference opponent off a su/ats win.....
since 1980 this system is....15-0 ats....100%....
the systems record this season is....1-0....100%....
play on - home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (msu) - off a road win, when playing on a saturday....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....24-4....85.7%....
the average line posted in these games was.... opponent favored by 14.2....the average score in these games was....team 24.1, opponent 31.1....
the system's record this season is....1-0....100%....
good luck....
adding....
under 47(120) tenn. / miss....
when i started researching this as a possible play, i was very surprised to find that these 2 teams have allowed a combined 8 rushing tds in sec play this season....that's impressive considering that most of the sec teams are run heavy....in addition, snead the highly rated miss. qb is averaging a horrible 48% completion % & 198 ypg with a 7/11 td/int rate in league play....& against the 3 best defensive teams that they have played (so. carolina, bama, & auburn), miss. has scored 10,3 & 20 points respectively....for the year, tenn. is allowing 17.5 ppg on the road, while miss. allows only 14.4 ppg at home....
tenn. is 7-0 under after playing a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons....the average score was tenn. 17.9, opponent 19.6....
play under - road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (tenn.) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....55-19....74.3%....
the average total posted in these games was....46.1....the total points scored....38.6....
notre dame+7....
pitt. has looked impressive this year, but imo they are not as good as they appear to be....according to sagarin, pitt.has played the 77th toughest schedule this year....1/2 of their opponents rank 74th or worse in passing....only 1 opponent ranks inside the top 20 & ncst scored 38 points on the pitt. defense....
pitt. is 2-6 ats as home favorites of less than 8 points or less....& 1-6 ats as home favorite of .666 or greater opposition....on the other hand, nd is 11-1 ats as road dogs of 8 or less....
play on - road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (nd) - off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season....
since 1992 the record for this system is....35-12....74.5%....
the average line posted in these games was.... opponent favored by 6.9....the average score in these games was....team 23.2, opponent 25.9....
here is who i have played so far this week....
vandy+3....
middle....nebraska-3(120)....kansas+5(135)....
georgia-4....
miami o+3....
n.carolina+4(120)....
miss.st+14(130)....
monroe-20(120)....
mich.+10....
missouri+3(125)....
w. virginia+10....
north texas+3(125)....
under 49 ucla / wash.st....
under 47(120) utah / tcu....
lafayette +14(130)....
marshall+3....
under 47(120) tenn. / miss....
notre dame+7....
good luck....
under 47(120) tenn. / miss....
when i started researching this as a possible play, i was very surprised to find that these 2 teams have allowed a combined 8 rushing tds in sec play this season....that's impressive considering that most of the sec teams are run heavy....in addition, snead the highly rated miss. qb is averaging a horrible 48% completion % & 198 ypg with a 7/11 td/int rate in league play....& against the 3 best defensive teams that they have played (so. carolina, bama, & auburn), miss. has scored 10,3 & 20 points respectively....for the year, tenn. is allowing 17.5 ppg on the road, while miss. allows only 14.4 ppg at home....
tenn. is 7-0 under after playing a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons....the average score was tenn. 17.9, opponent 19.6....
play under - road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (tenn.) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....55-19....74.3%....
the average total posted in these games was....46.1....the total points scored....38.6....
notre dame+7....
pitt. has looked impressive this year, but imo they are not as good as they appear to be....according to sagarin, pitt.has played the 77th toughest schedule this year....1/2 of their opponents rank 74th or worse in passing....only 1 opponent ranks inside the top 20 & ncst scored 38 points on the pitt. defense....
pitt. is 2-6 ats as home favorites of less than 8 points or less....& 1-6 ats as home favorite of .666 or greater opposition....on the other hand, nd is 11-1 ats as road dogs of 8 or less....
play on - road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (nd) - off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season....
since 1992 the record for this system is....35-12....74.5%....
the average line posted in these games was.... opponent favored by 6.9....the average score in these games was....team 23.2, opponent 25.9....
here is who i have played so far this week....
vandy+3....
middle....nebraska-3(120)....kansas+5(135)....
georgia-4....
miami o+3....
n.carolina+4(120)....
miss.st+14(130)....
monroe-20(120)....
mich.+10....
missouri+3(125)....
w. virginia+10....
north texas+3(125)....
under 49 ucla / wash.st....
under 47(120) utah / tcu....
lafayette +14(130)....
marshall+3....
under 47(120) tenn. / miss....
notre dame+7....
good luck....
it seems that i am by myself by taking miami o for tonight's game....i feel very lonely....can somebody else come into this thread & tell me that i am not alone....thanks....
i think he's the one that they made a movie about with al pacino....saw it & thought it was boring....
do you know what his record is this year ?
i accidently stumbled upon some trends for the miami o+3 play....
miami o is 14-1 ats when the total is between 56.5& 63 since 1992.....the average score was miami o 37.2, opponent 19.6....
miami o is 9-0 ats in a home game where the total is between 56.5 & 63 since 1992....the average score was miami o 34.6, opponent 19.4....
good luck....
miami o is 14-1 ats when the total is between 56.5& 63 since 1992.....the average score was miami o 37.2, opponent 19.6....
miami o is 9-0 ats in a home game where the total is between 56.5 & 63 since 1992....the average score was miami o 34.6, opponent 19.4....
good luck....
friday i have 2 plays....
w. virginia+10....
when i capped this game i found that cin. averages at home only 26:54 minutes in time of possession on offense & allows 33:05 top minutes on defense....both are very poor....but i guess the explantion is that cin. is a quick strike offense....looking at w. virginia's minutes....on the road they average an excellent 34:20 minutes on offense & allow an excellent 25:40 minutes on defense....i think it is fair to say that w. virginia will have more top than cin in tomorrow's game....so i think getting 10 points is a good play....provided that w. virginia can prevent many long passing plays....
w. virginia is 6-0 ats as conference dogs of 6 or more points....& is 40-11 su in big east games with only 4 of those losses being double-digits....
undefeated favorites of more than 8 points off 4 su/ats wins are 16-29 ats (35.5%)....
under 45(120) temple / akron....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (temple) - off 3 or more consecutive overs....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....65-28....70%....
the average total posted in these games was....46....the average total points scored....40.3....
good luck....
w. virginia+10....
when i capped this game i found that cin. averages at home only 26:54 minutes in time of possession on offense & allows 33:05 top minutes on defense....both are very poor....but i guess the explantion is that cin. is a quick strike offense....looking at w. virginia's minutes....on the road they average an excellent 34:20 minutes on offense & allow an excellent 25:40 minutes on defense....i think it is fair to say that w. virginia will have more top than cin in tomorrow's game....so i think getting 10 points is a good play....provided that w. virginia can prevent many long passing plays....
w. virginia is 6-0 ats as conference dogs of 6 or more points....& is 40-11 su in big east games with only 4 of those losses being double-digits....
undefeated favorites of more than 8 points off 4 su/ats wins are 16-29 ats (35.5%)....
under 45(120) temple / akron....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (temple) - off 3 or more consecutive overs....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....65-28....70%....
the average total posted in these games was....46....the average total points scored....40.3....
good luck....
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I'm adding WVa +10 to my existing list, but was burned on that game last night. so, I'm staying away from bad teams for awhile.
Oh who am I kidding. I'll add them both.
Let's cash it in.
AR,
Real quick, CIN is off a 2 point win not the above-mentioned 19. They did win by 21 the week before . Not sure if this conflicts with the first stat where they of course did not cover ATS last week but did win SU. Like the play either way but wanted to make sure you had all the facts
Pistol
you are right pistol...i corrected it....glad you informed me about the error....
thanks & good luck....
I used to a few years ago, but no one seemed to pay much attention to my threads. Then I had a child and I quit betting. Now, I've gotten my feet back into it, but not enough to post my own thread. I like doing these quick hits in other threads.
