college plays for 11/14-11/18....

[AR182]

133-89-2.......+24.68*


toledo-4(120).....

i'm a little gun shy playing mac games after last week's shady ats loss by akron, but figured that the worst thing i could lose tonight would be money...so what the hell.

i think this is a good spot for toledo. they are playing at home tonight (25-5 ats when not favored by more than 28 points) where the weeknight home teams seem to do well, while ball st. may come in to tonight's game a little flat after their close loss to mich last week.also believe it or not toledo needs this game more than ball st., because with a win tonight & next week, toledo could become bowl eligible.

it seems that during the past 3 games toledo has found it's running game.over that span, their leading rusher, parmele has rushed for 375 yards...& the team has rushed for a combined 588 yards. in the previous 6 games, toledo had rushed for a total of 634 yards combined.since ball st. allows an average of 180 yds. per game on the ground, toledo should be able to control the line of scrimmage.

also being able to run the ball, the toledo defense hasn't been on the field quite as much as before.it has allowed an average of 16.6 points per game during these 3 games & have stopped n. ill's #35 & akron's #71 total offenses in the nation. and since they stopped akron's #36 rated passing attack, i think toledo will be able to slow down ball st's passing attack (ball st. averages 82 rushing yds. per game).

so i will take the team with the better rushing attack, the better defense, & is playing home over the team with the 1 dimensional offense, that has a terrible defense,& may be a little deflated.

good luck.

 

[tulah]

I like it.
Best of luck this week!

 

[Irish]

Good luck tonight and this weekend AR. We start the week on the same page and I hope we cash it in.

Cheers
Irish

 

[buddy]

Good luck, Al.

Any thoughts on Mizzu over ISU?

With this being the final game of their season, I think the Cyclones are just waiting for quad zeros on the game clock.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl tonight and the weekend AR

 

[blgstocks]

GL this week AR

 

[gman2]

the football that is being played in the mac this year is downright awful, and almost uncappable. at very worst, you should have had a shot to push or get overtime. instead, this pathetic conference has another poor showing on national tv. mistakes galore, culminating with a ridiculous drop.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

i agree gman, these mac games are unbearable...but leaning towards a play for tomorrow's game also....i guess i'm a glutton for punishment....

some plays for saturday....


under 39(120) wf/vt....

vt allows about 10 points per game,
while wf allows about 13 per game. wf has gone under in 8 of last 10, while vt has gone under in 7 of last 10. i think the first one to 14 wins this game.


purdue-10....

a few weeks ago i took minn. against indiana because indy usually does very poorly on the road, & think that will be the case on saturday.also indy is 1-8 ats on the road in their last 9 road games when they are a double digit road dog.


oregon-13...

i'm looking for the ducks to rebound from them losing last week against usc (they outgained usc), while i look for arizona to come into this game pretty flat off of their 2 upset wins the last 2 games. oregon is averaging about 40 points per game at home this year, while arizona is 2-41 ats off a win when it allows more than 28 points, including 0-19 ats when they are off b2b wins.


b.c.-7....

this is one of my favorite plays of this week. i watched a few of maryland's games this year & eventhough they have won those games, i haven't been too impressed with them. in last week's game vs. miami (i had miami), the canes controlled the ball for most of the game by running right through maryland's defense.....& miami had no passing threat because they had a rookie qb playing for them. in addition to bc being an excellent home team, they have huge statistical edges in this matchup with about a 40 yard per game edge on offense, & close to a 90 yards edge advantage on defense. maryland's rush defense has allowed over 140 yards in 6 straight games & have won 5 consecutive games by a grand total of 13 points. i think the terp's luck runs out this game & should win this game rather comfortably.


arizona st.-3(130)...

this is another game that i like alot. ucla hasn't won this year on the road, while asu has won 4 of 5 at home, & i like their chances saturday now that their running attack has started to produce.

good luck.

 

[AR182]

Good luck, Al.

Any thoughts on Mizzu over ISU?

With this being the final game of their season, I think the Cyclones are just waiting for quad zeros on the game clock.

buddy...

i don't like either side. hate laying dd on the road & don't know what frame of mind iowa st. is in plus they have a few injuries.

 

[blgstocks]

I really like the VT under and the Maryland game. GL to you this weekend

 

[AR182]

thanks stocks..good luck to you also.


tonight i'm playing....

kent st.-10(buy)....

i have been checking the lines pretty regularly waiting for this to go down closer to 10...but can't wait any longer. the outside world is calling.

i really like kent st. in this game eventhough there are a few cappers on the net that i repect who are taking the dog.

eventhough they are out of the mac east race,from everything that i have read i think kent st. is more motivated for this game than e. mich., who has absolutely no motivation for this game.kent st. wants to win the final 2 games of the season to have a winning record & a possible invitation to a bowl game.

here's quote from the kent st. coach showing this....

"We are chasing something here that hasn`t been done many times in the history of this school, which is a winning season,? Martin told reporters.

when they are on their game,kent st. plays fundamental football...they rank #30 in rushing the football (about 170 yards per game) & have the country's 25th total defense (5th best pass defense).

e. mich. averages about 298 total yards on offense & allows about 204 rushing yards per game on defense, which ranks them #116 in the nation.

here is another quote from the kent st coach showing that he practically conceded last week's game to vt, in order to be ready for his final 2 conference games...talking about the starting qb..

?Julian is good to go,? Martin told reporters. ?Actually, he could have played (against Virginia Tech). If it was a conference game, we would have played him.?

some trends & systems supporting this play....

kent st. is 19-3 ats in their last 22 wins...

since 1981, conference home teams playing in their last home game of the season are 20-10 ats provided they enter off 3 or more su losses & they're playing against an opponent that owns a winning % of .150 or less.

last home game favorites of -9.5 or more are 8-1 su/ats provided they enter off b2b blowout losses of 21 points or more...which kent has done.

i haven't been able to get a handle on these mac games, so take my analysis fwiw....but i will take the team that plays fundamental football better & the team that i think is more motivated.

good luck.

 

[DeadPrez]

BC is my favorite play this week


good luck AR

 

[qwas789]

While I Respect AR and all the dead prezzes, 8 pts seems like alot to give. Think there may be better games out there. What do I know.

 

[gjn23]

fyi-reg the ore/arizona game

also-arizona wont be flat....this is as sky high as they have been in 8 years and they truly believe that they CAN win out and WILL win out and get to a bowl game.....ore has been dominant at home (vs vastly inferior comp) but they've been struggling lately and getting erratic play at qb, i'd be shocked if arizona gets rolled


UO update: Leading receiver out with injury
Updated: 3:58 PM, Friday, November 17, 2006

Jaison Williams, Oregon?s leading receiver this season, won?t play Saturday against Arizona due to an ailing back.

Williams apparently aggravated what UO coach Mike Bellotti described as ?a chronic condition? in last week?s game at USC, and the pain has persisted. Bellotti said it was questionable whether Williams, who has 62 receptions for 929 yards and six touchdowns, could play next Friday against Oregon State in the finale of the regular season.

?It could be two weeks, it could be six weeks? before Williams is ready for full contact, Bellotti said Friday as the Ducks practiced at Autzen Stadium.

Oregon?s starting receivers against Arizona will be Jordan Kent, Brian Paysinger and Cameron Colvin. With James Finley out with a knee injury suffered two weeks ago, and Garren Strong still hobbled, it could mean a significant increase in playing time for reserves Rory Cavaille, a redshirt freshman, and Ryan Mattice, a sophomore transfer.

Bellotti also said that Ed Dickson, only recently switched back from defense to offense, could play ?as a split end.? Dickson had been a tight end or H-back before his time on defense

 

[Cie]

GL this weekend Al.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...


adding....

n.w.+3(117)..

good luck.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

good luck Mr. Al

 

[AR182]

thanks dr. love...


adding...

u 47 smu/tulsa...

good luck.

 

[AR182]

i just realized that i forgot to post my troy st. play that i got earlier in the week.

sorry about that.

good luck.

 

[AR182]

adding...

u 38 rutgers/cin....

good luck.