college plays for 11/18 - 11/21....

[AR182]

had an awful week last week going 8-16....season record is....81-48 in totals & 62-76 in sides.... combined record for the season is a disappointing 143-124....

going to cut back on my weekly plays until the bowl season....so far this week i have 2 plays....i'll have writeups asap....

so. miss-7(120)....
under 56(120) hawaii / san jose st....


good luck....

 

[#cruncher]

Leaning So Miss myself AR. GL this week.

 

[AR182]

thanks cruncher....

adding....

so. fla-11
under 44 kan st / neb....


some thoughts on the so miss play....

so. miss.-7(120)....

tulsa is coming off a short week because they played last sunday night....& after starting the season 4-1 tulsa has lost 5 straight games & have allowed 1212 yards in their last 2 games....while tulsa is 3-2 su on the road, their wins were against rice, tulane, & n. mexico, who combined have 2 fbs wins....on the other side, so. miss. can still play for the cusa title with 2 wins....since young took over at qb, sm is averaging 34.4 ppg & for the season they are averaging 38.8 ppg at home & their defense is allowing 15 ppg at home....

tulsa is 1-13-1 ats as dogs of less than 20 points off a dd ats loss....while so. miss. is 7-1 ats in their last home game of the season....

i think so. miss. will be more focused than tulsa & wins this game by at least 14 points....


good luck....

 

[rrc]

Still up almost 10 units on the year, and a fantastic job on your totals plays.

Thanks for all your hard work.

Continued good luck the rest of the way.

 

[AR182]

thanks for your comments rrc....it's really appreciated....


here is a small writeup on the so fla play....

so. fla.-11....

last week so. fla was blanked for the first time during the regular season in their 13 year history & it was on national tv....so with this & the fact that louisville beat them last year, they should have a sour taste in their mouth & be very focused for this game....on the other hand it looks to me that louisville is a "towel tosser"(they gained a total of 151 yds. vs. syracuse & have averaged 12.5 ppg in their last 4 games)) & it seems like they can't wait for the season to be over....

so.fla.is a completely different team at home than on the road....at home they have outgained & outscored their opposition by an average of 145 ypg & 22 ppg respectively & have held opponents to an average of 15 ppg....

since 2006 they are 10-4 ats as home favorites....

since 1992 so. fla. is 9-1 ats after scoring 9 points or less last game....the average score was sfla 32.7, opponent 18.2....


play against - road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (lou.) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, in november games....

since 1992 the record for this system is....29-6....82.9%....

the average line posted in these games was.... team favored by 14.8....the average score in these games was....team 38.8, opponent 14.9....

the system's record this season is....2-0....


good luck....

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

AR182,
I don't mean any disrespect but why do you buy points on almost all of your plays? Don't you think that really cuts into your profits? I'm sure you know this but I had to ask. It has been driving me nuts. Maybe you posted on this before and I missed it. Again, i'm not trying to pick a fight but I was just curious to your thoughts on the subject.

 

[AR182]

AR182,
I don't mean any disrespect but why do you buy points on almost all of your plays? Don't you think that really cuts into your profits? I'm sure you know this but I had to ask. It has been driving me nuts. Maybe you posted on this before and I missed it. Again, i'm not trying to pick a fight but I was just curious to your thoughts on the subject.

tu....

first i don't take it that you are picking a fight & its a good question & its one of the reasons for forums like this....& yes i have answered this question before....& yes i know it cuts into any profits that i may have....

i have developed a numerical system that i use as part of my capping & in order for the system to be most effective it has to be at a certain number & the points that i buy gets me to the most advantagous (sp?) point....

the most points that i will buy is 1 point on any play but only if it takes me to a key number & i usually buy 1/2 point to get off a a line like 4.5....

a few years ago i hit 61% of my plays using this method & last year i hit 56%....but this year it has been a struggle....so i am tweaking it....

this is one of the reasons why i say that i am not a good capper & people shouldn't blindly follow my plays because of the above & because i am not disciplined enough....

hope this answers your question tu....good luck....

 

[Security King]

Thanks for the write ups AR. I have been fighting the discipline problem for years.

 

[AR182]

Thanks for the write ups AR. I have been fighting the discipline problem for years.

it's funny sk, i am a disciplined person in the real world but when it comes to betting on football, i have little discipline....ie....when a play is on the border of playing or not, i will make the play....

 

[Morris]

it's funny sk, i am a disciplined person in the real world but when it comes to betting on football, i have little discipline....ie....when a play is on the boarder of playing or not, i will make the play....

I wish I had discipline!! Never gonna happen. Gl this weekend.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

tu....

first i don't take it that you are picking a fight & its a good question & its one of the reasons for forums like this....& yes i have answered this question before....& yes i know it cuts into any profits that i may have....

i have developed a numerical system that i use as part of my capping & in order for the system to be most effective it has to be at a certain number & the points that i buy gets me to the most advantagous (sp?) point....

the most points that i will buy is 1 point on any play but only if it takes me to a key number & i usually buy 1/2 point to get off a a line like 4.5....

a few years ago i hit 61% of my plays using this method & last year i hit 56%....but this year it has been a struggle....so i am tweaking it....

this is one of the reasons why i say that i am not a good capper & people shouldn't blindly follow my plays because of the above & because i am not disciplined enough....

hope this answers your question tu....good luck....

Thanks for the reponse. I just wanted you to know I don't always yell at people. Just in the Political forum!

Well you have to stick with what works for you. Obviously you are a pretty good capper. I've seen you at a few other sites since i've started betting more football this year than I have in years. GL the rest of the year.

 

[AR182]

Thanks for the reponse. I just wanted you to know I don't always yell at people. Just in the Political forum!

yeah well talking politics seems to bring out the worst in all of us....its too bad because i use to enjoy talking politics with the people there....& i feel bad for jack that he is caught in the middle....i guess i will read more often once football ends....

 

[zacharyj53]

You were saying you like bookmaker a great deal in another thread. Can you go in more detail why you do? I honestly don't care for the site that much. Their live betting is hit or miss.

 

[AR182]

You were saying you like bookmaker a great deal in another thread. Can you go in more detail why you do? I honestly don't care for the site that much. Their live betting is hit or miss.

zach....

i know nothing about live betting, so i can't comment on that....but what i look for in a book is how early the lines come out for sides & totals & the fact is that bookmaker has the lines out before any other book....i also want a book that pays out quickly & i have been with them or betcris (they own bookmaker) for about 7 or 8 years & never have had any problems with payouts....so in my 2 main priorities for books, i would say that bookmaker is top-knotch....

olympic (the greek) is another book that i have been with for a long time & for the same reasons as above,i wouldn't do without them....

i hope this helps....good luck....

 

[zacharyj53]

Thanks for the writeup. Right now I am only using one book. Think I should probably expand a little bit. I was thinking 5dimes or betjamacia.

 

[AR182]

Thanks for the writeup. Right now I am only using one book. Think I should probably expand a little bit. I was thinking 5dimes or betjamacia.

5dimes is also a top flight outfit that has ealry lines....& betjamaica is owned by the greek & they have excellent service & have found them to be very friendly....so you can't go wrong with either book....

 

[zacharyj53]

Thanks again bro. :toast:

 

[AR182]

my pleasure zach....good luck....


adding 3 totals....will have writeups asap....

under 44 minn / iowa....

under 54 okla / tex. tech....

under 67 fla. atl. / troy....strictly a bad weather play....


good luck....

 

[LDB]

gl this week ar :toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks ld....

adding....

georgia-7(130)....

utah st+24(120)....


good luck....