college plays for 12/1-12/3.....

[bigfootballfan]

thanks tp...good luck to you also.

adding another small play....

fla.(ml)...

alot of good cappers are taking ark. today & i can see why....mcfadden is truly a great runner, probably the best runner in college football. but i keep going back to the ark. qb play against lsu & how poorly their 2ndary looked last week. imo, ark. is not balanced enough to win today.

in talking about this game,i've read that people aren't impressed with how fla. has played this year. it seems that they aren't winning by big enough scores.

but looking at the stats of both teams, fla.has played better than ark....

these stats are from a site that i use....

fla.has averaged 6.6 yppl. this season, while allowing 4.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that rate at .2 yppl BETTER than average.

ark.has averaged 6.6 yppl. this season, while allowing 4.8 yppl. to a schedule of teams that rate at .2 yppl WORSE than average.

here are a few angles/trends that support this play...

play against a conference championship/bowl team (not a dog of more than 7 points) seeking revenge for 4 su losses in the last 4 matchups vs, an opponent not off a conference road dog game....since 1980 these teams are 0-9 su/ats. the most recent example of this angle was last year when vt was a 2 td favorite over fla. st in the acc championship games....& fla. st. won su 27-22


play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (fla.) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season.

last 10 seasons the ats record is...35-10....77.8%.


play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (fla.) - outgaining their opponents by 2.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.

the last 5 seasons the ats record is...29-8...78.4%


play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (fla) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record.

the last 10 seasons the ats record is...28-9...75.7%


good luck.

FYI, "Florida may have to go ahead against Arkansas with several key players either banged up or too injured to play. Freshman wide receiver Percy Harvin has a neck injury but still should play on Saturday. Running back DeShawn Wynn, who leads the Gators with 632 yards rushing, is likely out with a shoulder injury and starting linebacker Earl Everett might also miss Saturday's game."

GL!

 

[blgstocks]

Another great weekend of handicapping AR!

Im on Fla and WV as well

GL to you this weekend

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it.


i never would have played w. virginia if i knew white wasn't going to play...i guess you can't believe anything that you read because everything that i did read stated he was going to play.

finished up going 3-1 +6.50* for the week.

finished up the season going 142-106-2 (57.2%) for +19.41*. not as good as the previous years but am doing better in the nfl than what i normally do. i will keep a separate record for the bowls.

good luck.

 

[blgstocks]

Thanks for the two winners today AR

 

[AR182]

Thanks for the two winners today AR

glad that i could help stocks.

 

[ctownguy]

Great job AR

Good Luck with the Bowls.

 

[pt1gard]

great job AR, super season, you carry a big stick at MJs

 

[Cie]

Good work Al. I'm looking forward to your thoughts throughout bowl season.

CG:weed:

 

[CWood97]

Congrats on a great season AR and good luck in the bowls.

 

[AR182]

thanks very much guys..appreciate it.

good luck.