college plays for 8/28 - 9/1...
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks guys..appreciate it..
tman...congrats on reaching that milestone...:142smilie
adding....
missouri - 8(120)....
like others i am looking for a big year from missouri. we all know about the potent mu attack & their great qb.....i also think that their defense is pretty solid......last year they allowed just 5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. this year they have the potential to be even better with 8 returning starters, including their top 3 tacklers.
ill. had a great year last year. their offense was very productive but i don't see how they can replace their great runner from last year....mendenhall ran for 1681 yards at 6.4 ypr last season & i read that none of the backs came close to his level of play during the spring practices.they are also mistake prone as ill. is -28 in turnover margin in zook?s 3 seasons.last year defensively ill. was a little better than mediocre ....& going into this year they lose 5 starters from last year?s defense, including their top 3 tacklers & their free safety, who defended 16 passes last season (5 int).
a trend....
missouri is 7-0 ats as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons
i also think that missouri has a little payback because last year the rose bowl picked the 3 loss ill.team over # 7 missouri...leaving the tigers out of a bcs bowl.
i'll take the better team...
good luck
tman...congrats on reaching that milestone...:142smilie
adding....
missouri - 8(120)....
like others i am looking for a big year from missouri. we all know about the potent mu attack & their great qb.....i also think that their defense is pretty solid......last year they allowed just 5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. this year they have the potential to be even better with 8 returning starters, including their top 3 tacklers.
ill. had a great year last year. their offense was very productive but i don't see how they can replace their great runner from last year....mendenhall ran for 1681 yards at 6.4 ypr last season & i read that none of the backs came close to his level of play during the spring practices.they are also mistake prone as ill. is -28 in turnover margin in zook?s 3 seasons.last year defensively ill. was a little better than mediocre ....& going into this year they lose 5 starters from last year?s defense, including their top 3 tacklers & their free safety, who defended 16 passes last season (5 int).
a trend....
missouri is 7-0 ats as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons
i also think that missouri has a little payback because last year the rose bowl picked the 3 loss ill.team over # 7 missouri...leaving the tigers out of a bcs bowl.
i'll take the better team...
good luck
thanks guys...appreciate it...
adding....
under 57(120) mich. st / calif.....
last season msu primarily used 2 runners to rush for an average of 198 rushing yards per game.....ringer returns this year, but caulcrick (872 yards and 21 touchdowns) doesn't.....their qb(hoyer) returns but his main target from last year (thomas) is in the nfl. their most experienced wide receiver that is returning caught 20.
msu's defensive backfield may be the strongest unit of this year's defense because they return 3 starters from last year's team.they also return 2 linebacker's with experience.....& their d-line is also highly thought of.
this year cal's offense has 4 starters returning from last year's team, their top four receivers from a year ago are gone. however their highly thought of replacements will take time to develop. cal. will also have to replace their top runner from last year.
it seems this year that cal's strength is their defensive unit which is returning eight players...& the strength of cal's defense will be at linebacker. the d line will be the biggest question mark in the opener, as the team needs to improve against the run. cal's defensive backfield is a little inexperienced but so is the msu receiving corp.
based on the above info i think this game may not even reach the 50's.
good luck.
adding....
under 57(120) mich. st / calif.....
last season msu primarily used 2 runners to rush for an average of 198 rushing yards per game.....ringer returns this year, but caulcrick (872 yards and 21 touchdowns) doesn't.....their qb(hoyer) returns but his main target from last year (thomas) is in the nfl. their most experienced wide receiver that is returning caught 20.
msu's defensive backfield may be the strongest unit of this year's defense because they return 3 starters from last year's team.they also return 2 linebacker's with experience.....& their d-line is also highly thought of.
this year cal's offense has 4 starters returning from last year's team, their top four receivers from a year ago are gone. however their highly thought of replacements will take time to develop. cal. will also have to replace their top runner from last year.
it seems this year that cal's strength is their defensive unit which is returning eight players...& the strength of cal's defense will be at linebacker. the d line will be the biggest question mark in the opener, as the team needs to improve against the run. cal's defensive backfield is a little inexperienced but so is the msu receiving corp.
based on the above info i think this game may not even reach the 50's.
good luck.
here is an angle that i just read from a respected capper from another site.....
play against any team that lost their bowl game by 14+ points in their first game if they are on the road or an underdog --
the ats record is....20-9...
play against illinois, bg, and hawaii
play against any team that lost their bowl game by 14+ points in their first game if they are on the road or an underdog --
the ats record is....20-9...
play against illinois, bg, and hawaii
al, i'm just going to echo what everybody else is saying... it's great to see you back here.
keep up the great work.
keep up the great work.
just saw this....
buddy......you got to do what you got to do...
last year i had distractions...i am hoping this year to keep them to a minimum...
thanks buddy....appreciate it
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thanks guys...appreciate it...
adding....
under 53 akron / wisc.....
akron returns four starters on the offensive line and that makes this group the strength of the offense. they expect to be able to run the ball with the arrival of former miami-florida top recruit johnson & their leading rusher from 2006, kennedy. they have an experienced qb (jacquemain) but no real proven pass catcher....they had to convert a safety to wide receiver in attempt to find a big play threat. on defense, the front line looks to be the most experienced with three starters back from last year. the weakness of the zips' defense will likely be in the secondary, as not a single starter returned from last year's team.
wisc. is starting at qb allen evridge, who was a 6 game starter for kansas st. in 2005. except for the tight end position, he has a largely unproven group of wideouts to work with and that could hinder his success. they still have hill at running back & he will run behind the usual massive offensive line that wisc. is known for. the Badgers did a respectable job on defense last season, but this unit could improve with the return of nine starters.
with neither team having any game breakers at wide receiver , i am hoping that this will be a grind them out type of game.
a system supporting this play....
play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (akron / wisc) - in august games.
the ats record over the last 10 seasons is......46-18........71.9%
the average total posted in these games was........52.6
the average score in these games was.....team 23.5, opponent 23.5....total points scored.....47.1
the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32......53.3% of all games
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......12-2......85.7%
good luck
adding....
under 53 akron / wisc.....
akron returns four starters on the offensive line and that makes this group the strength of the offense. they expect to be able to run the ball with the arrival of former miami-florida top recruit johnson & their leading rusher from 2006, kennedy. they have an experienced qb (jacquemain) but no real proven pass catcher....they had to convert a safety to wide receiver in attempt to find a big play threat. on defense, the front line looks to be the most experienced with three starters back from last year. the weakness of the zips' defense will likely be in the secondary, as not a single starter returned from last year's team.
wisc. is starting at qb allen evridge, who was a 6 game starter for kansas st. in 2005. except for the tight end position, he has a largely unproven group of wideouts to work with and that could hinder his success. they still have hill at running back & he will run behind the usual massive offensive line that wisc. is known for. the Badgers did a respectable job on defense last season, but this unit could improve with the return of nine starters.
with neither team having any game breakers at wide receiver , i am hoping that this will be a grind them out type of game.
a system supporting this play....
play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (akron / wisc) - in august games.
the ats record over the last 10 seasons is......46-18........71.9%
the average total posted in these games was........52.6
the average score in these games was.....team 23.5, opponent 23.5....total points scored.....47.1
the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32......53.3% of all games
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......12-2......85.7%
good luck
"if they are on the road or an underdog "
the game is at ole miss AND memphis is a dog.
they fit BOTH criteria
and of course they lost their bowl by > 14 points
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=273550235
44-27
okay i just checked it in powersweep...& memphis is not listed....& i agree with you that they fall into the play against category...i don't what to tell you....it seems like good ole phil made an error...
